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Maui North Shore Real Estate Market Mid Year Update

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Now that we are just past the midway point for the year, I thought it might be worth looking at how the real estate market has fared in a few specific Maui communities during the first half of 2011. Today, I want to look at the Maui North Shore Real Estate Market including the communities of Haiku, Paia, Spreckelsville and Kuau. I will provide a general overview on sales volumes and median prices followed by an additional breakdown of the statistics. I will also give a few thoughts about these stats and what they mean.

A Comparison of Maui North Shore Real Estate Sales Volumes between January-June 2010 and January-June 2011
Table comparing real estate sales volume for the North Shore of Maui

During the first six months of 2011, Realtors reported 14 sales at a median price of $567,000 in the communities of Paia, Spreckelsville and Kuau. This compares to 10 sales during the first half of last year at a median of $530,000. This represents a 40% increase in volume and a 7% increase in median sales prices.

During the first six months of 2011, Realtors reported 22 sales at a median price of $673,000 in the community of Haiku. This compares to 23 sales during the first half of last year at a median of $520,000. This represents a 4% decrease in volume and and a 29% increase in median sales prices.

There were a total of 5 land sales at a median price of $300,000 in Haiku for the first six months of the year. There were 10 land sales reported in Haiku during the same time frame in 2010 at a median of $440,000. This represents a 50% decrease in volume and a 32% decrease in median sales prices.

There were no land sales in Paia during the first half of 2011. There was one in the first half of 2010 at a price of $150,000.

The numbers above give you a high level sense of market activity. One nice thing about data sets of this size, they lend themselves well to additional breakdowns. Here are a few other notes on the Paia area market.

  • There were six sales in the Kuau area during the first six months of 2011. This compares to five sales in the first six months of 2010.
  • There were five sales in Paia. That equals the number we saw last year. That being said, more of the Paia sales activity was in and around town this year. Much of last year’s activity was in the Skill Village neighborhood up Baldwin.
  • There were three sales in Spreckelsville during the first six months of 2011. This compares to only one sale over the same period last year.
  • Two of the Kuau sales this year were Oceanfront. There were no oceanfront sales during the first six months of 2010.
  • The highest sales price for the first six months of 2011 was one of the oceanfront sales at $1,950,000. There were three other sales over $1,000,000 in the Paia/Sprecks/Kuau area. This compares to a high sales price of $845,000 for a home in Spreckelsville during the first six months of 2010.
  • The lowest sales price for the first six months of the year was a residential condo in Kuau that closed for $182,000. This was a short sale. The lowest price in the first half of last year was $248,000 for a home in Skill Village. This was also a short sale.
  • There were three bank owned properties sold and three short sales sold during the first six months of this year. This compares to two short sales and no bank owned sales during the first six months of 2010.
  • Land sales were non-existent, but there is a very limited inventory of land for sale around Paia.

There were a few conclusions that I could derive from the points above. In general, the Paia area has seen relatively low levels of foreclosure activity and distressed sales since the market down turn began. That being said, we have seen an uptick in distressed sales this year more so than in the prior couple of years. The uptick we are seeing isn’t necessarily a reflection of owners falling on hard time in the last 6-12 months. It can take a fair amount of time for foreclosures to be processed in Hawaii. We still have bank owned properties that have yet to have been released to the market. There is also inventory pending foreclosure that may take significantly longer to come to market due to Hawaii’s new ACT 48 law.

On the other end of the spectrum, we are also seeing more high end sales activity this year. This looks like a trend that could continue in the second half of 2011 as there is currently an oceanfront estate in Spreckelsville listed for $11,500,000.00 that is under contract. The increase in median sales price for the first six months of 2011 may not be a reflection of an increase in values as much as is it is a shift in market activity. A small sample size and a greater number of high end sales is the likely culprit.

Here are a few additional stats and bullet points that I pulled out of the Haiku sales numbers.

  • The high sales price in Haiku for the first six months of 2011 was $1,150,000. This compares to a high of $2,200,000 in 2010.
  • There were ten sales over $700,000 during the first six months of 2011. There were only five sales in this price range during the first half of 2010.
  • The lowest sales price in Haiku for the first half of 2011 was $236,000. This compares to a low sale of $250,000 over the same time frame in 2010.
  • The high and low sales for Haiku land were $900,000 and $185,000 respectively during the first half of 2011. The high and low sales were $650,000 and $250,000 for the first six months of 2010.
  • There were no bank owned sales during the first half of 2011 and two short sales. This compares to four bank owned and three short sales during the first half of 2010.

There were a couple of things that stood out about the Haiku stats. One of the more striking things to me was the lack of bank owned sales. A little additional digging points to some potential causes for this statistic. I found it noteworthy that there are ten bank owned properties listed in Haiku currently. Three of the ten are under contract. There is inventory and it appears as if it is starting to get some attention based on the pending sales. It was also notable that four of the ten listings have been on the market for over 200 days with two others right around 100 days on market. This is a little longer than usual for bank owned properties. Well priced bank owned properties will often go under contract in a week to ten days. It appears as if banks are having a tougher time finding the sweet spots for pricing in Haiku. Pricing properties in Haiku can be tough for reasons I outline below.

Another thing that stood out was the big increase in the median sales price in Haiku. I would caution people from interpreting the change in median as a reflection of increases in market value. As with the Paia area, a good portion of the higher median can be attributed to an increase in activity on the high end. It is clear by the numbers and our own anecdotal evidence from showings that there are more high end buyers in Haiku this year. There were double the number of sales over $700,000 during the first half of 2011 when compared to 2010. This is going to cause big impacts on your median when overall sales are down slightly. Haiku has an extremely heterogeneous real estate inventory for its sample size. There is a huge range in lot size, usability of land, house size, quality of construction, number of accessory buildings, property orientation, views and micro climates among Haiku properties. All of these different elements can and do impact the value of a property. Variability in the types of properties sold can lead to large swings in median prices on a monthly basis or in this case a semi-annual basis.

The last thing that stood out among the Haiku stats was the dip in land sales. The first caveat when looking at land sales is that this is a small number. It is a small enough number that I was able to look closely at each of the sales. Forty percent of the 2010 sales came from a small release of lots by Alexander and Baldwin. The four sales were all oceanview lots with a pretty good amount of acreage. As I mentioned before, land sales are pretty limited in general and those sales that do occur tend to be pretty good opportunities. While this is my opinion, the better sales figures in 2010 reflected better opportunities and inventory available in the market last year.

I hope to take a look at Upcountry and Maui Resort Community statistics over the next week. You can check out our official June 2011 Maui Real Estate statistics If you are interested in island wide statistics for the first half of 2011. If you are interested in purchasing a property along the North Shore of Maui, you can check out the current inventory of Haiku Real Estate Listings and Paia area listings on our website. For direct assistance, you may also contact The Maui Real Estate Team with questions or for help buying and selling Maui North Shore properties.


One Response to “Maui North Shore Real Estate Market Mid Year Update”

  1. There have been a couple of higher dollar figure sales in Haiku recorded in the month of July. 0 Hoolawa Rd, a cool, off the grid oceanfront estate sold for $2,000,000 on July 8, 2011 and 48 Laenani, a spectacular home overlooking Maliko Gulch recorded for $2,700,000 on July 18. It should be noted that 48 Laenani was previously one of the highest recorded sales in Haiku in April of 2007 for $4,000,000. The $2,700,000 mark reflected a 32.5% reduction in value. These high ticket sales will probably skew the numbers further upward for Haiku for the month of July. As Pete previously pointed out, these increases are more a reflection in the mix of sales versus a huge increase in values versus the 2010 numbers.

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7/11/2011

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