A couple of weeks back, I decided to take a more in depth look at how the real estate market performed for the first half of 2011 in a handful of specific Maui communities. I have already posted statistics for the North Shore and Upcountry markets. I had originally intended to post one last blog on how the resort communities performed. That being said, I found the abundance of data to be a little overwhelming for one post. Instead, I will be posting three blogs looking at the communities of Wailea/Makena, Kapalua and Kaanapali respectively. This first post looks at the Wailea/Makena market. It includes information on sales volumes and medians for home, condo and land sales. I also have a further breakdown of condo sales volume by complex as well as some additional information that I came across in the process of sorting through the data. I also offer some thoughts on what the statistics may mean.
There were 10 home sales in the Wailea/Makena area during the first six months of 2011 at a median price of $1,472,500. This compares to 17 sales during the first half of 2010 at a median price of $1,700,000. This translates to a 41% drop in activity when comparing sales volume this year to last year. Median prices dipped 13% from last year.
- Eight of the ten transactions were reported as cash deals.
- There were two short sales and one bank owned deal among the ten sales. During the first half of 2010, there were no short sale or bank owned transactions
- The lowest priced sale was $900,000.
- The high sale for the first six months of 2011 was $5,200,000. By comparison, the first six months of 2010 produced a high sale of $19,850,000.
- There were no sales in Makena during the first six months of 2011. By comparison, there were six sales in the Makena area during the first six months of 2010.
There were 64 condo sales in the Wailea/Makena area during the first 6 months of 2011 at a median sales price of $1,040,000. During the first six months of 2010, there were 65 condo sales at a median price of $975,000. This represents a little less than a 2% decrease in sales volume and approximately a 7% increase in medians when comparing the first half of 2011 to the same time period in 2010.
- The high sales price for the first six months of 2011 was $5,850,000 for a three bedroom condo at Wailea Point. By comparison, the high price for the same period of 2010 was a Maui sales record of $12,500,000 for a condo at Wailea Beach Villas.
- The low sales price was $360,000 for a one bedroom Bank owned listing at Wailea Ekahi.
- There were a total of seven bank owned sales and six short sales. That compares to six bank owned sales and two short sales during the same period of 2010.
- In addition to the 64 condos sold, there was one boat garage sale reported among the Wailea condo statistics. A boat garage at Wailea Point sold for $104,500.
There were 2 land sales reported in Wailea during the first half of 2011 This compares to 5 sales during the first half of 2010. While only two sales were reported, one was a big one. A beachfront lot in the Maluhia development at Wailea sold for $7,300,000. Like much of the rest of the island, land sales in the Wailea/Makena area remain limited.
Looking at the numbers above the dip in home sales sticks out the most. The Wailea market and the Makena market in particular made a big splash in the first half of 2010. There were two sales of over 17 million dollars including a new record sales price for a single family home. There were also 6 sales in Makena including four with sales prices over $5,000,000. We just didn’t see that level of activity during the first half of 2011. The majority of the ultra high end activity was occurring in Kapalua Resort and along West Maui’s Oceanfront.
Does this point to a shift in the preferences of high end buyers? Has the Wailea and Makena area lost its luster? Plain and simple, the answer is no. I am publishing these stats a month after the official midway point for the year. That gives me the advantage of an additional month to observe the market. July has been busy for the Wailea and Makena luxury home market. Shock waves reverberated through the Maui market earlier this month when an unlisted property in Makena sold for $27 million. The 1.6 acre oceanfront estate shattered the previous single family home sales record. There are two homes listed for over $7.5 million that are now under contract at Makena Place. A home listed for $16.5 million went under contract at Keawakapu Beach. There is a second unlisted property along Keawakapu Beach under contract. While its sales price is unknown, the property had been listed in the last year for $23 million. A month of additional market activity has completely changed the tenor of the Wailea and Makena luxury home market. I enjoy compiling the data for these blog posts and they provide a good snap shot of market activity. That being said, there are some dangers when you try to read into the data too much or you call something a trend when dealing with these relatively small sample sizes.
While there were some pretty big swings in home market activity, the condo market was almost a mirror of 2010 in terms of total sales volume. We saw some subtle shifts in the composition of sold properties with an increase in bank owned closes and short sales. The volume of sales at individual complexes also fluctuated. Kanani Wailea and Kai Malu saw the biggest jump in sales volume while Wailea Palms and the Palms Wailea saw the sharpest decrease in volume. I am reticent to read too much into these shifts in market activity. It may just be variability. That being said, I wouldn’t be surprised to see higher sales volumes continue at both Kanani Wailea and Kai Malu. These are both complexes that came to market near the peak. Most condos in these complexes are now valued below their original sales prices. Declines in value combined with speculative purchasing when these properties came to market have resulted in REOs and short sales. I suspect Kai Malu and Kanani Wailea may still have some REO and short sale inventory to work through.
While most of my discussion has focused on volume, it is worth discussing median prices as well. As the numbers show above, we saw condo medians increase while home medians decreased. Whether it is an individual community like Wailea/Makena or Maui in general, I am reticent to use changes in median as an accurate measure of changes in property values. With these smaller sample sizes, shifts in median can be also be attributed to shifts in where market activity is occurring. For example, greater concentrations of high end sales can raise median prices while increased sales activity among lower priced condos can pull medians down. While I lack clear quantitative evidence, I would argue that Wailea and Makena may still be seeing modest drops in value for most properties. That being said, we are also seeing very affluent buyers who are willing to pay an absolute premium for some of the extraordinary properties that are for sale in this resort community. While comparable sales may dictate the market value of some properties, other sales may be more a matter of finding the common ground between what a buyer is willing to pay vs what a seller is willing to accept.
Contact The Maui Real Estate Team if you have any questions about these stats or if you need assistance buying or selling Wailea and Makena Real Estate. You can also search the current inventory of Wailea and Makena Homes for Sale and Wailea and Makena Condos for Sale on MauiReal Estate.com.