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Maui Real Estate 2013 Year in Review

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For those who like Maui Real Estate stats, this is the post you have been waiting for all year. This is our annual review of the Maui Real Estate market which features a whole lot of data on the market. We hit the usual stats of sales volumes and market medians, but we also wanted to provide some additional numbers while compiling the basics. We also take a look at some of the market trends we saw in 2013. Based on those trends, we give a few thoughts on what we might expect to see for 2014. I know this will be a long post, so let’s cut to the chase and get you the numbers.

A Comparison Between 2013 and 2012 Real Estate Sales Volumes for Maui County, Hawaii.

A Comparison Between 2013 and 2012 Real Estate Sales Volumes for Maui County, Hawaii.

There were 979 homes sold in Maui during 2013 with a median sales price of $530,000. The total dollar figure of homes sold was $766,004,838. The total In 2012, there were 937 homes sold and the median sales price was $469,000. The total dollar sum of homes sold in 2012 was $660,889,782. When comparing the two years, sales volume was up 4%, median price was up 13% and the total dollar amount of property sold increased 16%.

There were 1,334 condos sold in Maui County during 2013 with a median price of $374,500. The total dollar amount of condos sold was $762,156,383. By comparison, the 2012 numbers were 1,253 condos sold with a median price of $355,990. The total dollar amount of condos sold in 2012 was $588,372,138. That calculates to a 6% increase in sales volume, a 5% increase in median price and just under a 30% increase in the total dollar amount of condos sold.

There were 220 parcels of land sold in Maui County during 2013 with a median price of $399,500. The total dollar amount for the land sold was $160,571,747. In 2012, the numbers were 176 pieces of land sold with a median price of $350,000. The total dollar figure for 2012 totaled $99,251,529. The increase between 2013 and 2012 come out to a 25% increase in sales volume a 14% increase in median and a 61.7% increase in dollar volume.

In addition to these numbers, there were a few other numbers that I thought were worth sharing looking back at the year in numbers.

  • The highest priced sales price for a home on Maui was $11,900,000 for a place right on the beautiful sands of Keawakapu Beach. In all likelihood, this house is going to be razed or a much larger home is going to be built in addition to the current structure.
  • There were a total of 45 homes sold for $2,000,000 or more in 2013. That is a modest increase 9% over the 41 sold in that price range in 2012. The Wailea and Makena market saw the most activity with fifteen transactions over $2,000,000.
  • The highest priced condo transaction in 2013 was $11,395,000 for one of the new Andaz Residences. This four bedroom/five bath beachfront condo has 3,965 square feet of living space. This is the second highest priced condo sale in Maui history.
  • There were 46 condos sold for $1,500,000 and above in 2013. That was up an impressive 65% over the 46 condos sold in this price range in 2012. Honua Kai was the busiest complex for sales over $1,500,000 with 15 transactions.
  • The highest price land transaction was $15,600,000 for 1,841 acres in lower Kula.
  • That was one of 29 parcels of land sold in 2013 for a $1,000,000 or more. That is a 71% increase over the 17 parcels sold in this range in 2012.
  • There were 120 bank owned or (REO) sales in 2013. That is down 60% from 2012 when there were 300 total REO sales. Buyers looking for that elusive bank owned deal are finding their opportunities continuing to shrink.
  • There were 217 successful short sales in 2013 in Maui County. That is down 30% from the 312 short sales that were completed in 2012. We are seeing a decreasing number of these transaction as prices rise and fewer sellers are in a negative equity position.

In addition to the data above, I thought it would be revealing to take a look at the distribution of homes and condo sales by price point in 2013 and compare it to 2012. The four charts below show the distribution of home and condo sales for properties sold below $1,000,000 and properties above $1,000,000.

Distribution of home sales in Maui County by price point under $1,000,000 during 2012 and 2013

This chart shows the distribution of home sales by price point in Maui County during 2012 and 2013. This chart shows all of the homes that sold under $1,000,000.

There were a few things that can be gleaned from the chart showing homes sold for less than $1,000,000. The first thing that stands out is that sales activity appears to be shifting towards a higher price point in the market. The 2012 sales volume was stronger that 2013 for properties below $400,000. Once you get to $400,000 and above, 2013 sales clearly outpaced 2012. The inventory at the lower price points of the market has been shrinking steadily over the last 18 months so there have been fewer lower priced opportunities in 2013. The reason for the shrinking inventory is two fold. The first is that there are fewer bank owned properties and short sale transactions. Many of the lowest priced properties were bank owned listings and short sales. The second factor is that we are seeing appreciation. Some of those homes that sold in the mid to high $300,000s are now valued in the $400,000s. This chart is also a good example of why you need to be careful when using changes in median price as a true indicator of changes in value. Median price is going up in part due to appreciation, but the increase in higher priced transactions is also playing a part.

Sales distribution by price point in Maui County for homes over $1,000,000.

This chart shows the distribution of home sales in Maui County by price point during 2012 and 2013. This shows sales priced at $1,000,000 and higher.

Home sales over $1,000,000 were up in 2013 by a solid margin over the sales numbers for 2012. The greatest increase in activity came in the $1,000,000 to $2,000,000 range. Above that price point, the 2013 numbers were generally stronger with a few price ranges where 2012 was equal to or stronger than 2013 sales. Through 2012, the luxury home market was seeing an uneven recovery with many luxury home communities experiencing high inventories. We chewed into some of that surplus inventory in 2013. That said, there are still communities on the island where the luxury home market remains slow and buyers have numerous options. I have a few community year end reviews coming on the blog that will delve into the performance and inventories of specific luxury home communities in greater detail.

This chart compares the distribution of condo sales in Maui County by price point. This chart shows sales under $1,000,000.

This chart compares the distribution of condo sales in Maui County by price point during 2012 and 2013. This chart shows sales under $1,000,000.

The chart that shows condominium sales under $1,000,000 appears to be quite similar to the one for homes under $1,000,000. There is a clear shift to the right with fewer sales at the low end and generally more sales at higher price points. This is another situation where we are seeing shrinking inventory at the low end. That stems in part from a decrease in bank owned sales, but it also is due in part to appreciation. The lowest priced condominiums on Maui were among the hardest hit in the real estate downturn with some condos depreciating as much as 70%. That depreciation was fed by a high number of foreclosures and short sales. As the bank owned inventory has been absorbed by buyers, the table was set for a strong rebound in prices. Some of the condos in Kihei that are geared towards owner occupants and long term rentals such as Southpointe, Kihei Villages and Keonekai Villages have seen significant appreciation in the last 12-18 months. Condos in these complexes that were valued in the low to mid $100,000s in mid 2012 are now selling in the low to mid $200,000s.

This is a case where the shift in median prices doesn’t fully capture some of the appreciation in the market. The fact of the matter is that not all properties on the market are appreciating at equal levels. Supply and demand are playing a role in driving the market. Affordable entry level housing remains in high demand and supplies are relatively limited. That led to the big boost in appreciation. As you get to higher price points, the inventory is higher compared to overall demand and appreciation is more limited.

Distribution of condo sales over $1,000,000

This chart shows the distribution of condo sales in Maui County by price point during 2012 and 2013. These are for properties sold for $1,000,000 or higher.

The chart above depicts the strength of the $1,000,000+ condo market during 2013. There were significant gains in sales volume and there was enough activity to take a chunk out of what had been a substantial inventory. While the condo market recovery started at the lower price points during 2012, it felt as if the recovery was percolating up to the higher end in 2013. The 2012 buyers were a combination of investors, second home owners and residents looking to take advantage of lower prices. The 2013 market still saw those demographics represented in the buyer pool, but there were more affluent buyers making discretionary purchases. One reason why may be the relative strength of the stock market in 2013. Luxury condos are typically discretionary purchases. With high net worth individuals feeling flush from 2013 stock returns, some may have felt better positioned to cash out and buy a luxury condo on Maui.

Now that we have all of the data on 2013, the video below gives a few thoughts on what we might expect to see in 2014.

Let us know if you have any questions on this month’s stats. We also encourage you to contact the Maui Real Estate Team if you are considering buying or selling property on Maui. We would welcome the opportunity for a free consultation and the chance to discuss your real estate needs.

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1/23/2014

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