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March 2018 Paia Real Estate Market Update

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As we approach the end of the first quarter, our Team wanted to provide an update on how some of the real estate markets around the island have been faring. The Maui Real Estate Team’s office is located in Paia on Maui’s North Shore. It only makes sense that it would be near the top of the list of communities for that we profile. This small beach town has been one of the stronger real estate markets on the island this cycle. With very limited growth in inventory over the last 15 years and a significant increase in demand, the recipe for price increases has been in place for some time. Spreckelsville is part of the Paia zip code and included within the Paia MLS area via the Realtor Association of Maui. We already did one market update focusing specifically on Sprecks. This update focuses more on Paia town itself and the neighborhoods of Kuau located to the east of Paia town.

The map above shows the geographic distribution of recent sales activity and current listings in Paia. Red pins show sales, yellow pins show properties that are currently under contract and green pins indicate active listings. You can click on the individual pins for more details on the properties.

Here are the notable sales numbers from the second half of 2017 and the first couple of months of 2018 in Paia town.

  • There were 8 homes and one condo sold in the last half of 2018. There have been three homes sold thus far in 2018. There are an additional five homes under contract.
  • Over the same period of 2016-2017, there were 14 homes sold and one condo sold. That is a 22% decrease in home sale volume.
  • The Median price of the homes sold over the last 8 months is $747,000. The average sales price for the 11 homes that closed is $1,837,563. Over the period between July 1, 2016 and March 15th, 2017, the median price of homes sold was $590,000 and the average price was $840,000. That is a 25% and a 218% increase respectively. These charges aren’t solely a reflection of increases in value. They are also due to a higher number of more expensive sales and less inventory and activity at the lower price points in the market.
  • The high sale over the last 8 months was $4,855,200 for an oceanfront home in Paia. This five bedroom, four and a half bath home with 3,809 square feet of living space is situated on a 15,882 square foot lot. This sale was notable in that it was the first luxury home auction in the Paia area.
  • This was one of four sales in Paia that closed over $3,000,000. The other three closes were all ocean or beachfront properties.
  • The lowest priced home sale was $521,000. This was for a three bedroom, two bath home with 1,508 square feet of living space on a 7,871 square foot lot on Baldwin Avenue.
  • The one condo that closed at Kuau Plaza sold for $354,000. That is a new record sale for a one bedroom in that complex.

While the Paia area is pretty small, the housing stock can be diverse. The numbers above give the big picture. I wanted to take a little deeper dive by looking at some of the individual neighborhoods in the community.

Skill Village
Skill Village is a neighborhood located above the Paia Mill on Baldwin Avenue. It consists of mostly modest homes built in the mid to late 1980s. A lot of the homes priced in the entry point of the Paia market are located in Skill Village. It also tends to be one of the busier neighborhoods in Paia for sales activity. During the last half of 2017, the neighborhood bucked that trend. There were only two sales. The recent activity has also been happening at higher price points. The lowest priced sale in the neighborhood closed for $600,000. That was for a well maintained 3 bedroom, one bath home with 984 square feet of living space on a 6,164 square foot lot. The highest priced sale was actually the highest all time sale in the neighborhood. A home at 85 Palekana Street sold for $700,000. This four bedroom, two bath home has 1,576 square feet of living space. That record appears to be short lived with a larger, highly upgraded home located at 549 Kuanana listed for $849,000 currently under contract. Even if the sale price is well under asking, it is highly likely that this will be a new record. That house is somewhat anomalous from other current activity in the neighborhood.

After about a year or more of limited listings, we have seen neighborhood inventory increase since the start of the year. The property at 549 Kuanana is one of seven homes that are currently listed in the neighborhood. Four of the seven homes are under contract. The price points are also a little more accessible with four out of seven listings priced below $600,000.

Paia Halelani
Paia Halelani is a neighborhood that most don’t know by name. Located behind the Paia Community Center, most of the community’s modest homes were built in the early 1970s. The neighborhood has not seen a lot of activity lately with no sales in the last couple of years. Within the last month, the first two listings in some time came to market. Both homes are priced under $500,000, a relative rarity these days in the Paia market. That said, the bank owned property at 246 Kahiko is in such poor condition that they are not even allowing showings due to safety concerns. That means a cash buyer is the only possibility. The other home at 210 Kahiko also has considerable deferred maintenance and may also require cash to purchase. These two properties will not provide a great indication on neighborhood values when they close due to their poor condition.

Kuau Bayview
Kuau Bayview is an Alexander and Baldwin subdivision built in the late 1990s. The subdivision has been one of the strongest neighborhoods in this market cycle. It was the first neighborhood on the island to set all time market highs after the last downturn. It has had relatively limited activity on the MLS during the last 8 months. The listing at 34 North Laelua is the only property listed on the MLS at this time. That home is currently under contract. There was one for sale by owner in the neighborhood that recently sold. I did a public records search and could not find the sales price as of yet. There is also one other For Sale by Owner which just came on the market.

Paia Oceanfront
This is more a property type or general location than neighborhood. The shoreline of Paia has seen a fair amount of real estate activity over the last 8 months with four closes. They are a fairly diverse set of properties. There was the aforementioned auction property. That plain and simple was a a luxury oceanfront home. The second highest sale was for a large Plantation Style home right on the oceanfront of Paia Bay. The home was filled with Old Hawaii Charm and fetched a price tag of $3,600,000. While the previous two sales were finished articles, the last two oceanfront sales were more upside purchases. The first was .64 acres on the beach at Paia Bay. There are two structures on the property including a 3 bed, 2 bath home with 2,260 square feet of living space and a 3 bedroom, 1 bath home with 960 square feet of living space. The zoning allows for the possibility for a third structure. The last sale included over an acre of oceanfront in the middle of Tavares Bay with a 1930s vintage Old Hawaii Style Home. The sea wall on the property began to fail while it was under contract. This led to a price reduction during the transaction. The new owner will need to address that issue. These two properties both closed for $3,300,000.

Unless, there is an influx of new listings, I would expect that we may see a slow down in activity for oceanfront homes in Paia. There are just three Paia oceanfront properties on the market at this time. One is priced well over the all time record sale for oceanfront homes in Paia outside of Spreckelsville. Another home is priced just below the record sale. The all time record sale was on more land, with bigger, newer and more upgraded homes. A buyer would really need to fall in love with the respective locations of those listings to pay close to the asking prices.

Paia Market Outlook for the rest of 2018
Paia has relatively limited inventory at this time. That is likely to be the biggest constraint to a lot of sales activity for the rest of the year. Another thing to watch is interest rates. While we have a little more inventory in Skill Village, lower priced properties may cool off a little if we see a significant rise in interest rates. I can’t foresee any real drastic shifts in the market unless we have some sort of larger global event that causes significant economic uncertainty. The fundamentals of Paia overall remain strong. It still has a fairly limited number of properties and the future development of homes will likely remain slow. Demand comes from both on island residents and a off island buyers. That should keep Paia as one of the more sought after real estate markets on the island.

The tight market can make for some challenges if you are a prospective Paia home buyer. With an office in the center of town and our ears constantly to the ground, we have a good sense of the inventory of both listed and unlisted properties. Sellers will find that the lack of inventory makes this a good time to come to market. Sellers still do need to put thought into their pricing. Even with limited inventory, overpriced properties can sit for a while under current market conditions. Contact The Maui Real Estate Team if you are planning on buying or selling property in Paia. We would welcome the chance to sit down and discuss your real estate needs. You can search the current inventory of Paia Real Estate Listings on MauiRealEstate.com.

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3/17/2018

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