Maui Real Estate Blog

Maui Market Musings Volume XX

Well, we made it to our twentieth Market Musings. This post took me a while to put together. I want to say it’s because it is chock full of tremendous insight. The truth is my last 9-10 days consisted primarily of battling Covid. My symptoms made writing this post a protracted slog. Give me some grace if there are typos and/or a few not so coherent thoughts interspersed throughout the text.

In our last post, I talked about the relative resilience of the Maui market under higher rates. Since that time, rates rose even more. The additional bump in rates or perhaps just a longer duration of time with higher rates is weighing on the Maui market. The single family home market in particular is feeling the burden of higher rates and decreased affordability. Musings 20 takes a look at some of the current market indicators including active and pending inventory, price reductions and how quickly new listings are going under contract.

End of October Maui Single Family Home Inventory

8/31/229/31/2210/31/22
ActivePendingActivePendingActivePending
<$750,00011117149 (+1)15 (+1)
$750,000-$999,9993144214629 (+8)29 (-15)
$1,000,000-$1,499,9995828453364 (+19)28 (-5)
$1,500,000-$1,999,9994613441741 (-3)13 (-4)
$2,000,000-$2,999,9993612331235 (+2)10 (-2)
$3,000,000-$4,999,9993211351132 (-3)7 (-4)
$5,000,000-$9,999,99926527626 (-1)5 (-1)
$10,000,000-$19,999,9991101109 (-2)0
$20,000,000+50213 (+1)1
Totals256124225140248 (+23)108 (-32)
Maui active and pending home listings by price point on the last day of the month from August, September and October 2022
8/31/229/30/2210/31/22
Haiku20724728(+4)9 (+2)
Hana829110 (+1)0 (-1)
Ka’anapali1041037 (-3)2 (-1)
Kahului112572616 (+9)16 (-10)
Kapalua41406 (+2)0
Kihei4416351640 (+5)11 (-5)
Kula2410221120 (-2)11
Lahaina237211022 (+1)13 (+3)
Makawao15111311139(-2)
Napili/Kahana/Hono…1449711 (+2)6 (-1)
Pukalani85678 (+2)3 (-4)
Spreckelsville/Paia1531048 (-2)2 (-2)
Wailea/Makena16410811 (+1)4 (-4)
Wailuku4122362640 (+4)21 (-5)
A comparison of active and pending home listings by community for the last days of the month from August-October 2022. It does not include all communities on Maui.

End of October Home Inventory Review

The information above is provided with the usual framework. The home inventory data by price point includes all of the island of Maui, but excludes the islands of Molokai and Lanai. The district information is limited to the districts and community with the most activity.

  • After a pretty healthy drop in Inventory in September, active home listings increased by 10.22% by the end of October.
  • The bulk of the inventory increased occurred between $750,00 and $1,500,000 with an increase of 27 listings in that range.
  • It appears that this increase in inventory stems more from slower activity than an influx of new listings. That is reflected in the pending sales data with 20 fewer pending home sales between $750,000 and $1,500,000.
  • This make sense as this is an area of the market where a higher percentage of buyers are using financing. Looking at all of the sales between August 1 and October 30th, 18.93% of the buyers in this price range paid cash. In all other price ranges, 41.77% of buyers used cash. Plain and simple, the increase in mortgage rates is hitting this segment of the market harder.
  • Overall, the number of pending home sales decreased 22.86% between the end of September and the end of October. That is a substantial decrease, but worth noting that pending sales typically decline in the fall.
  • Looking at the market on a community level, all but three districts increased inventory. The exceptions being Kula, Spreckelsville/Paia and Ka’anapali. Ka’anapali’s decrease stemmed in part due to cancelled listings rather than increased sales.
  • Kahului experienced the biggest increase in active listings and the biggest decrease in pending sales. With the vast majority of the inventory in this community priced between $750,000 and $1,300,000, this is a market where the increased rates appear to causing a bigger shift in conditions.

End of October Condo Inventory

8/31/229/30/2210/31/22
ActivePendingActivePendingActivePending
<$250,00016132 (+1)4 (+1)
$250,000-$499,9991417111619 (+8)12 (-4)
$500,000-$749,9993443284032 (+4)35 (-5)
$750,000-$999,9993343333327 (-6)27 (-6)
$1,000,000-$1,499,9992931193621 (+2)30 (-6)
$1,500,000-$1,999,9992435183414 (-4)33 (-1)
$2,000,000-$2,999,9992238144315 (+1)40 (-3)
$3,000,000-$4,999,999121910171017
$5,000,000-$9,999,999817011 (+4)1 (+1)
$10,000,000+40403 (-1)1 (+1)
Total181233145222154 (+9)200 (-22)
A comparison of end of the month active and pending condo sales by price point from August through October of 2022.
8/31/229/30/2210/31/22
ActivePendingActivePendingActivePending
Ka’anapali2516171418 (+1)9 (-5)
Kahului37345 (+2)5 (+1)
Kapalua11610412 (+2)4
Kihei5063486143 (-5)60 (-1)
Lahaina910578 (+3)4 (-3)
Ma’alaea36443 (-1)6 (+2)
Napili/Kahana/Hono…4525293033 (+4)17 (-13)
Wailea248619861985 (-1)
Wailuku91481211 (+3)10 (-2)
Active and Pending Condo inventory by district in Maui during July-September of 2022. This does not include all districts.

End of October Condo Inventory Review

Again, the tables above come with the usual framework for our end of month inventory. The table by price point includes all condos on Maui, but it does not include condos on the islands of Molokai or Lanai. The table with districts is limited to the communities with the most activity.

Pending sales at La’i Loa at Wailea Hills skew the data in Wailea and the $1,500,000-$5,000,000 price ranges. There are 75 pending sales in that development based on contracts penned in 2020 and the first quarter of 2021. Pending sales in La’i Loa won’t start to close until sometime in 2023. Paradise Ridge Estates in Kihei also skews the data albeit to a lesser extent. There are 18 pending sales with that development based on contracts penned between 2018 and the first quarter of 2022. Overall, 46.5% of the pending Condo inventory is in La’i Loa or Paradise Ridge Estates.

  • After three straight months of decreased inventory, condo inventory increased by a modest 6.2%
  • The largest increase in inventory occurred in the $250,000 to $499,999 price range. While this price range has a lower percentage of cash buyers than the overall condo market, the difference isn’t all that substantial.
  • Active inventory increased in 6 out of 10 price ranges, decreased in three and stayed the same in one.
  • Pending sales decreased 9.91% this month. As with home sales, it isn’t too uncommon to see pending sales decrease this time of year.
  • The decrease in pending condo sales by price point was fairly consistent through most ranges, with the exceptions being the very lowest price range and the very highest price points in the market.
  • At the community level, modest increases in inventory were common across the board. The two districts that actually saw a decrease in inventory at the community level were Ma’alaea and Kihei. Both are markets with a lot of vacation rentals. This is a market segment that is still seeing decent demand.
  • Napili, Kahana and Honokowai experienced the biggest drop in pending sales. This is another big vacation rental condo market. Is the difference in activity levels a case of no clear narrative or just variability? This is something to watch with next month’s numbers.

How Quickly Are Properties Going Under Contract

One other metric we use on the blog to track market demand is how quickly properties are going under contract. Specifically, what percentage of new listings are going under contract in ten days or less. The very first time we started documenting this metric was back in February. At that point, 56% of all new listings went under contract within 10 days or less. Between September 12th and 19th, that number shrank to 34%. Between October 11th-18th, the number of properties that went under contract within 10 days or less fell further to 25.58%.

When you break it down by homes and condos, you can see that condos continue to show some measure of resilience. For condos listed between October 11th and 18th, 40% went under contract with buyers in ten days or less. That’s actually up from mid September when the number was 36.66%. For additional context, 66.67% of condos went under contract in 10 days or less between October 11th and 18th, 2021. Going back to 2019, 26% of all condos listed between October 11th and 18th went under contract in 10 days or less.

The numbers for the home market point to a more pronounced cooling. Only 13.04% of all homes listed between October 11th and 18th went under contract in 10 days or less. In mid-September, that number was 32.14%. For additional context, 54.17% of homes listed between October 11th and October 18th, 2021 went under contract in tend days or less. Going back to 2019, 9.09% of all homes listed between October 11th and October 18th, went under contract in ten days or less.

Price Reductions

One market indicator that surprised this month is the number of active listings with price reductions. Nationally, price reductions continue to rise as the real estate market slows under the weight of higher interest rates. Based on the numbers above, one might expect to see more price reductions, particularly with the home market. With fewer properties going under contract quickly and fewer properties going under contract in general, shouldn’t sellers be adjusting to the market?

As of the the 31st, 90 of 248 active home listings or 39.92% reduced their price one or more times. On September 29th, 42.41% of homes went under contract in 10 days or less. On September 2nd, 42.97% of all active listings had one or more price reduction.

On the condo front, 45 of 153 or 29.41% of active condo listings on October 31, 2022 reduced their price one or more times. That’s up from 25% on September 29th. On September 2nd, 27.84% of all active condo listings had price reductions.

Some General Thoughts on the Numbers Above and The State of The Market

It’s been an interesting last six months in the Maui Real Estate market. The first quarter of the year was largely a continuation of 2021. Strong demand combined with limited inventory to fuel strong price growth. Demand slowly started to taper in the second quarter. That said, inventory remained low. While the frenzy of the first quarter subsided, there was a balance between limited supply and just enough demand to make for a competitive market for buyers. While we were well below the frenzy of earlier in the year, homes and condos in particular sold faster and at a higher percentage of asking price than they would in a normal market.

This trend of a balanced ratio between buyers and sellers continued through the summer. Inventory actually contracted through most of the summer, but we lost FOMO (fear of missing out) buyers from the market. The lack of FOMO buyers had an impact. We started to see some downward pressure on values in limited parts of the market. With a discerning buyer pool, flawed properties that would have sold easily in the first quarter weren’t getting any love from buyers.

In my last musings, I showed stats that pointed to the relative resilience of this market despite rates well over 6%. The stats above point to a further shift downward in the market . Or at least two out of three did. The third is a reflection of Maui as a real estate market as a whole.

The increase in inventory and the decrease in pendings show a market where the balance in supply and demand is starting to shift. This is less due to an influx of new inventory as much as it is to decreased demand. When you look at the number of homes going under contract within 10 days or less, you can see where the push above 7% rates is starting to decrease the number of buyers. I am sure the more negative national real estate news is also having an impact on the buying decisions of some. Fomo has been replaced by wait and see.

The decrease in price reductions is the one anomaly in this market. As the market cools, you would expect sellers to adjust. Prior to Covid, Maui’s market dynamics were different than the typical mainland market. Sellers took time to adjust prices and days on market could really pile up before a listing was considered stale. It’s also worth remembering that this shift is pretty recent. We may need to see these conditions persist for a longer before more sellers begin to adjust prices.

The one other thing to note is that while we saw a shift in market conditions in these most recent stats, conditions remain variable. That’s pretty clear when we look at the difference between homes and condos. As of mid-October, new condo listings still went under contract much faster than they did pre-Covid. Condo inventory remains tight compared to demand and the volume of cash buyers blunts the impact of higher rates.There is variability in the home market too. The luxury market, which again includes a higher percentage of cash buyers, appears to be moving relatively well.

Looking forward, it will be interesting to see where the market goes from here. Since it’s taken me longer to write this blog post, I have the advantage of watching market conditions over the first ten days of November. While I haven’t crunched the numbers in any detail, pending sales stabilized to start the month. Yesterday’s inflation print out caused a shift in the bond market and mortgage rates to drop a half a point.Will that persist or will higher rates return? Needless to say, it’s too early tell. If anything, this points to continued weird market dynamics with a lot of variability in conditions.

A Little Maui Beauty to Brighten Your Day

It may not be Monday but…

Contact The Maui Real Estate Team

Variable market conditions and general market weirdness demand quality representation. Contact the Maui Real Estate Team to talk to one of our experienced agents if you are thinking of buying or selling Maui Real Estate. One of our healthy agents will be happy to learn more about your real estate needs. We look forward to being of assistance.

Pete Jalbert

Maui Real Estate Blog

Well That Was Fun!

For most buying a home on Maui is a lifestyle choice. We aren’t a center of commerce. You don’t come here for shopping or night life. It takes a minimum of five hours to get here via plane. People buy homes on Maui for natural beauty, climate and for the general lifestyle offered. For the North Shore of Maui, the ocean and the world class water sports offered are an integral part of that lifestyle. We recently hosted a broker’s event that was a little unusual. With a couple of listings that really appeal to those who love ocean sports, Billy and Martin came up with an idea that highlighted the amazing attributes of these two respective properties.

The Maui Real Estate Team invited a group of ocean sport loving Realtors for a downwind coast run that started at our listing at 78 Aleiki Place on Kuau Point and ended at Sugar Cove Building 6 in Spreckelsville. Most of the participants used wing foils to go down the coast. We had one agent riding a stand up foil and Kai Lenny used his kite. Kai’s brother Ridge, who is an agent in our office, narrates the video below that shows highlights from the event.

Not your typical broker’s event.

The condominium home at 78 Aleiki is just steps from the Kuau Point launch. If you like to wing, windsurf, SUP, or surf. There are a couple of surf breaks accessible just off the point. Of course, it’s also a great spot for starting a downwind run to Spreckelsville, Kanaha Beach Park or Kahului Harbor. Sugar Cove is a great spot for pretty much any ocean sport you can imagine. Surf, SUP, kite, windsurf, wing, body board or body surf off this great little beach.

Needless to say, the participants said this was a lot more fun than any other real estate event they ever attended. Not only was it a good chance to highlight the two properties, it was also a good reminder to all participants on just how lucky we are to call Maui our home.

Contact The Maui Real Estate Team

If you have questions about either of these properties, give us a call at 1 800 579 1525. We would be happy to answers questions or provide additional service.

The Maui market is changing. Needless to say, we aren’t immune to the latest increases to interest rates. Days on market are getting longer with buyers fewer. While there will still be buyers seeking Maui’s amazing lifestyle, the easy days for sellers are coming to an end. In this market, sellers need top quality representation. The Maui Real Estate Team uses high quality photography, videography and creative marketing like the broker’s event highlighted here to help properties stand out. Contact The Maui Real Estate Team if you are considering listing your home. We look forward to a no obligation sit down to discuss your needs and our services.

Pete Jalbert

Maui Real Estate Blog

Maui Market Musings Volume XIX

It’s been a few weeks since our last Maui Market Musings. With that in mind, this post delves into the numbers that help cast a light on current Maui market conditions. Since our last post, interests rates surged higher again putting additional pressure on affordability for some buyers. This post looks at what impacts if any higher rates are having on the Maui market. We also look at current inventory levels by price point and community. Other subjects for discussion include cancellations, price reductions and the recent market response to new listings. This is a longer read so you may want to grab your favorite caffeinated beverage before proceeding further. It is not advisable to operate heavy equipment after reading.

Interest Rates

It’s hard not to lead with interest rates when discussing the state of the market. Rates continued their climb since our last update. While they fluctuate daily, they’ve been somewhere between 6.5% and just over 7% over the last few weeks. Needless, to say, we are a long way from the sub 3% interest rates we saw during periods of 2021. For those hoping that this increase is going to be short lived, the recent comments of Fed Chair Jerome Powell suggest that is unlikely to be the case. Powell said higher rates are needed to bring about a “correction” and balance to the housing market. While the Fed doesn’t directly control mortgage rates, they can exert a strong influence with changes to the Federal Funds rate.

Higher rates (even rates lower than current rates) were already impacting real estate markets around the country. Values are starting to retreat in many markets, particularly in some of the frothiest markets of the last couple of years.

So what kind of impact are we seeing on Maui from higher rates? There are a couple of numbers that we look at in this musings that might reflect the impact of higher rates. Pending sales is one with decreased affordability likely to impact the number of buyers. Price decreases is another metric that would or should reflect sellers adjusting to decreased buyer demand. Keep reading to see what those numbers look like recently on Maui.

Maui Home Inventory

7/31/228/31/229/30/22
ActivePendingActivePendingActivePending
<$750,000111411117 (-4)14 (+3)
$750,000-$999,9992562314421 (-10)46 (+2)
$1,000,000-$1,499,9996534582845 (-13)33 (+5)
$1,500,000-$1,999,9994119461344 (-2)17 (+4)
$2,000,000-$2,999,9993119361233 (-3)12
$3,000,000-$4,999,999259321135 (+3)11
$5,000,000-$9,999,99924726527 (+1)6 (+1)
$10,000,000-$19,999,999120110110
$20,000,000+51502 (-3)1 (+1)
Totals239156256124225 (-31)140 (+16)
Maui active and pending home listings by price point on the last day of the month from July, August and September 2022
7/31/228/31/229/30/22
ActivePendingActivePendingActivePending
Haiku221120724 (+4)7
Hana41829 (+1)1 (-1)
Ka’anapali107104103 (-1)
Kahului132111257 (-4)26 (+1)
Kapalua514140 (-1)
Kihei4814441635 (-9)16
Kula1916241022 (-2)11 (+1)
Lahaina181423721 (-2)10 (+3)
Makawao149151113 (-2)11
Napili/Kahana/Hono…1061449 (-5)7 (+3)
Pukalani76856 (-2)7 (+2)
Spreckelsville/Paia10215310 (-5)4 (+1)
Wailea/Makena15516410 (-6)8 (+4)
Wailuku3935412236 (-5)26 (+4)
A comparison of active and pending home listings by community for the last days of the month from July-September 2022. It does not include all communities on Maui.

End of September Home Inventory Review

The information above is provided with the usual framework. The home inventory data by price point includes all of the island of Maui, but excludes the islands of Molokai and Lanai. The district information is limited to the districts with the most activity.

  • The inventory of active homes fell 12.2% between the last day of August and the last day of September.
  • Active inventory decreased in all price ranges below $3,000,000. There was a modest increase in inventory between $3,000,000 and $10,000,000, no change between $10,000,000 and $19,999,999, and a decrease in inventory above $20,000,000.
  • Pending sales activity increased 12.9% over last month! This is a surprising reverse of recent trends. It is an especially big surprise with the recent mortgage rate increases.
  • The biggest increase in pending sales occurred below $2,000,000. Above that price range the number of pending sales was either steady or increased by one. No price ranges experienced a decrease in pending sales activity. It is worth noting that the $10,000,000 to $19,999,999 range had no pending sales as of the end of August and still has no pending sales.
  • Looking at the different communities around the island, only two communities saw an increase in inventory. Haiku and Hana both saw modest increases in active listings. Anecdotally, it seems like some sellers in these windward communities try to get homes on to the market before the start of the rainy season later in the fall. I haven’t taken the plunge to determine if there is any quantitative evidence to support that claim.
  • After seeing big growth in inventory in late Spring and early Summer, Kihei saw the biggest decrease in active inventory for the second month in a row. Notably, the total number of pending sales in Kihei did not change. With that in mind, I decided to look a little closer at the Kihei market activity. While Kihei added 8 new pending sales this month, 7 sales closed, 8 listings cancelled and 2 expired. Only 4 new listings came to market. Based on those numbers, the reason for the decrease in inventory is multi-faceted. The cancellations could be a sign of seller capitulation (more on that below) or just sellers taking a break. We shall see.
  • Wailea and Wailuku are the two communities that saw the biggest increase in pending sales with 4 net new pendings. Wailea’s increase is a little more notable due to the percentage increase in pending sales. It’s worth mentioning that 4 of the 5 overall new pending sales in Wailea and Makena reduced prices before going under contract. There’s something to be said for listening to market feedback and adjusting price.

Maui Condo Inventory

7/31/20228/31/20229/30/2022
ActivePendingActivePendingActivePending
<$250,000181613 (-3)
$250,000-$499,9991123141711 (-3)16 (-1)
$500,000-$749,9994339344328 (-6)40 (-3)
$750,000-$999,999444333433333 (-10)
$1,000,000-$1,499,9993031293119 (-10)36 (+5)
$1,500,000-$1,999,9993033243518 (-6)34 (-1)
$2,000,000-$2,999,9992036223814 (-8)43 (+5)
$3,000,000-$4,999,9991218121910 (-2)17 (-2)
$5,000,000-$9,999,999103817 (-1)0 (-1)
$10,000,000+404040
Totals205234181233145 (-36)222 (-11)
A comparison of end of the month active and pending condo sales by price point from July through September of 2022.
7/31/20228/31/20229/30/2022
ActivePendingActivePendingActivePending
Ka’anapali2413251617 (-8)14 (-3)
Kahului283734 (-3)
Kapalua101011610 (-1)4 (-2)
Kihei6760506348 (-2)61 (-2)
Lahaina1689105 (-4)7 (-3)
Ma’alaea56364 (+1)4 (-2)
Napili/Kahana/Hono4034452529 (-16)30 (+5)
Wailea2582248619 (-5)86
Wailuku14139148 (-1)12 (-2)
Active and Pending Condo inventory by district in Maui during July-September of 2022. This does not include all districts.

End of September Condo Inventory Review

Again, the tables above come with the usual framework for our end of month inventory. The table by price point includes all condos on Maui, but it does not include condos on the islands of Molokai or Lanai. The table with districts is limited to the communities with the most activity. Pending sales at La’i Loa at Wailea Hills skew the data in Wailea and the $1,500,000-$5,000,000 price ranges. There are 75 pending sales in that development based on contracts penned in 2020 and the first quarter of 2021. Pending sales in La’i Loa won’t start to close until sometime in 2023. Paradise Ridge Estates in Kihei also skews the data albeit to a lesser extent. There are 18 pending sales with that development based on contracts penned between 2018 and the first quarter of 2022. Overall, 41.89% of current pending sales are long term new developer contracts.

  • The number of active condo listings at the end of September is 19.89% lower than at the end of August.
  • Active inventory decreased in seven out of ten price ranges in the table above. Net inventory was unchanged in the remaining 3 ranges.
  • Pending condo sales dropped 5.2% compared to the end of August. Is this a reflection of reduced inventory, reduced demand or both? It’s hard to say. That said, I did get a surprising number of e-mails last month from fellow Realtors seeking out condo inventory for buyers struggling to find what they want.
  • Pending sales dropped in seven of ten price ranges. Pending sales increased between $1,000,000-$1,499,999 and $2,000,000 and $2,999,999.
  • Ma’alaea is the only community where inventory increased last month albeit with just one more active listing than at the end of August. Kahului’s inventory is unchanged.
  • Napili, Kahana and Honokowai experienced the biggest decrease in inventory with 16 fewer listings at the end of this month. It was also the only community where pending sales increased. The eighteen new pending sales shows pretty healthy activity. It seems that the increase in pending sales is the biggest driver for the decrease in active listings in this market, but cancelled listings were also a factor. Seven sellers pulled their listings off the market.

Cancelled Listings

September is a transitional month on Maui. The summer tourism season is over and we are still a few months from our peak winter season. Anecdotally, I always thought of this as a month where some sellers will opt to take a pause from selling their home only to relist when it gets closer to winter tourism season. With the sharp decrease in active listings this month, I wanted to look closer at cancelled and expired listings. Is September actually a bigger month for cancellations historically? If so, how does this year compare to previous years? Is there anything that can be gleaned from this September’s high cancellations?

20222021201920182017
January2723483755
February219414334
March1815393658
April1917373977
May1322484089
June1916312753
July1722403058
August2716254462
September40 (1)28 (2)39 (t6)50 (1)41 (11)
OctoberTBD16374760
NovemberTBD30364760
DecemberTBD20432945
Monthly cancelled and expired home listings in 2022, 2021, 2019, 2018 and 2017. I note how September ranks each year in the table.
20222021201920182017
January1955274255
February1354381534
March1254274158
April1435433877
May1521543789
June1120372653
July1116234358
August2019212762
September29 (1)13 (11)43 (t2)44 (3)41 (11)
OctoberTBD15374960
NovemberTBD15406560
DecemberTBD11304145
Monthly cancelled and expired real estate listings during 2022, 2021, 2019, 2018 and 2017

Before discussing the numbers above, it is worth noting that there is some noise when it comes to cancelled listings. An agent changing brokerages or one brokerage buying another can inflate cancelled listings. The change in brokerages results in cancelled listings immediately replaced by new listings as old listing contracts are cancelled and new contracts created. I noticed some noise in this month’s cancelled home listings. Hoku’ula, a new development Upcountry, cancelled their MLS listings last month and put them back on the market as new listings at a higher price.

With that framework, let’s address the first question that I posed above. Is September a bigger month historically for cancellations? It appears to be one of the biggest months for canceled home listings albeit with some notable exceptions in the chart above. For condos, it is a little more extreme. Some years it is near the top and others near the bottom with no clear cut reason for the variability.

So what does that say about this year? Even without those five Hoku’ula cancellations, September would still be the highest month for home cancellation for the year to date. September is also leading for cancelled condo listings despite rather limited inventory. It’s hard to say definitively if this is strictly seasonal or if any of those cancellations are due to seller capitulation. That said, it would make sense if we start to see some sellers retreat from the market for non-seasonal reasons. Sellers who were fishing for ultra high prices, don’t need to sell or need to borrow at higher rates to buy a new place could all have reason to pull their listing under current conditions.

Price Reductions

Recent increases in interest rates are generating more price reductions nationally. Sellers are reacting to the decreased affordability posed by higher rates. What about the Maui market? Are we seeing similar trends? I looked at price reductions for active inventory on September 29th.

As of the 29th, 95 out of 224 active listings or 42.41% of all properties reduced their price one or more times. As of September 2nd, that numbers was 42.97%. On August 15th, it was 39.67%. While price reductions are up since the early summer, the more recent decrease in price reductions is somewhat surprising in light of the recent increases in rates.

On the condo front, 36 out of 144 active listings reduced their price one or more times. That calculates to 25% of active inventory. That is down from 27.84% on September 2nd and 29.62% of all listings on August 15th.

With inventory shrinking, perhaps sellers are feeling emboldened to stick to their guns on pricing. The higher level of cash and or low inventory levels seem to be making this market less responsive to interest rate changes thus far.

How Quickly Are New Listings Going Under Contract?

Another metric we continue to watch in the musings is how quickly things are going under contract. Specifically, what percentage of listings are going under contract within 10 days or less. We started tracking this in mid-February when the number was right around 56%. That was pretty much the peak of our winter frenzy. For properties that were listed between September 12th and 19th, 34% of all listings went under contract within 10 days. That is actually up from 29.79% between August 10th and 17th.

For home listings, 32.14% of new listings between September 12th and September 19th went under contract within 10 days or less. By comparison, 38.1% of all homes listed between 9/12/21 and 9/19/21 went under contract in 10 days or less. For a pre-covid comparison, 41.18% of all homes listed between 9/12/19 and 9/19/19 went under contract within 10 days or less. It is worth mentioning that 41% is a much higher percentage than other weeks we’ve looked at in 2019. For example, only 19.04% of homes listed between 9/27/2019 and 10/3/2019 went under contract in 10 days or less.

For condo listings, 36.36% of all new listings went under contract within 10 days between September 12th and 19th. Last year, an eye popping 67.74% of condos listed between 9/12 and 9/19 were under contract in ten days or less. In 2019, 27.27% of all condos listed between 9/12 and 9/19 went under contract within 10 days or less.

Overall, the market is way less frenzied than last year. However, properties are going under contract faster than in a “normal” Maui market. There are definitely fewer buyers, but there are enough buyers out there for the limited supply that over one third of the inventory is going under contract quickly.

A Few Closing Thoughts on the State of the Maui Market

The numbers compiled above paint a picture of a more resilient Maui market than one might expect. We actually saw fewer price reductions for homes and condos while pending home sales increased! Not exactly the market response one would predict when interest rates increase to their highest point in 15 or more years. It appears at this point that limited inventory is still having a significant impact on the market despite the rising borrowing costs.

Will that sustain itself through the rest of the year and into early 2023? I was suprised by this month so who knows what the future will hold. It’s likely that the market has yet to feel the full weight of higher interest rates. Add in signs of a slowing economy and our market is facing additional headwinds. Ultimately, the Maui market moving forward will be a balancing act between the impact of higher rates and supply constraints. Conditions well vary around Maui by both price point, location and property type.

With interest rates likely to remain elevated into the immediate future, more real estate economists are anticipating price corrections. Reading beyond the headlines, economists expect variability in market corrections across the country. Rates will be a market driver, as will the state of the economy and local inventory. It’s important not to base market decisions on national headlines, but instead on relevant local data. We plan to continue with our Musings and community market updates so Maui buyers and sellers have the data to make informed decisions.

A Little Maui Beauty to Brighten Your Day

Contact The Maui Real Estate Team

Questions about the post above? Wondering about conditions in a specific part of the Maui Market? Need assistance buying or selling a property on Maui? Contact The Maui Real Estate Team for assistance. One of our experienced and savvy agents would welcome the chance to sit down with you to discuss your real estate needs.

Pete Jalbert

Maui Real Estate Blog

September 2022 Ka’anapali Market Update

Post Updated September 29, 2022

It’s time for an excursion to West Maui as we continue our series of posts on market conditions in different communities around the island. The focus of today’s post is Ka’anapali. This resort community experienced a boom in activity during 2021 with rising prices and a high volume of sales. How has the market been in 2022? Find out more below as we look at year to date numbers for 2022 with numbers from 2021 and 2019 provided for comparison. There are also a few thoughts on the outlook for the rest of the year and early 2023.

Ka’anapali Home Market Numbers

  • Maui Realtors reported 20 homes sold for the year to date as of September 23. That is 59.2% less than the 49 sales reported over the same period of 2021. It is 11.11% higher than the 18 reported in 2019.
  • The median price of homes sold in 2022 is $2,650,000. That is 11% higher than $2,387,000, last year’s median over the same period. It is 77.91% higher than $1,489,500, the median during the same period of 2019.
  • The average price of the homes sold in Ka’anapali during 2022 is $2,855,552. That compares to an average of $3,017,891 and $1,994,037 during the same periods of 2021 and 2019 respectively. This year’s average is 5.38% lower than last year and 43.2% higher than 2019.
  • 20% of this year’s buyers paid over asking price for their home and 45% paid asking price or above. In 2021, 12.24% of buyers paid over asking price and 28.57% paid asking price or above. In 2019, no buyers paid over asking price and 11.11% paid full price.
  • Realtors reported 30% of sales were cash transactions.
  • The highest priced transaction this year closed for $5,295,000. The property in the Lanikeha subdivision included a 3 bedroom, 3.5 bathroom home with 3,086 square feet of living space and a 1 bedroom, 1 bathroom, 508 square foot cottage on a .485 acre lot.
  • The lowest priced sale for the year to date closed for $1,681,050. The bank owned property in Ka’anapali Hillside actually sold via online auction for 46.17% over asking price. The home needed serious repair and renovation.
  • The Ka’anapali Hillside subdivision had the most sales activity with 6 closes. Lanikeha and the Summit were the next busiest with 5 transactions each.

Thoughts on the Home Numbers and the Outlook for the Rest of the Year and Early 2023

After a rip roaring 2021 for sales, transaction activity decreased sharply this year in Ka’anapali coming in just above the pre-pandemic levels of activity during 2019. That said, decreased volume is just one part of the story. There was enough demand that 45% of all home sales closed for asking price or above. That’s even more than last year. When compared to 2019 numbers, that 45% is particularly striking. Back before the boom of the last couple years, above asking price offers were exceptionally rare and just over 10% of the buyers paid full price.

Some of the decreased sales volume can be attributed to a scarcity of listings at lower price points and within a couple of higher priced Ka’anapali neighborhoods. There were no transactions or even inventory in the Pinnacle this year, and just two listing and no transactions in Ka’anapali Coffee Farms. At this time, there is no active inventory for less than $3,000,000, with the only 2 listings below that price under contract.

Inventory isn’t as big of an issue as you move up in price range in Ka’anapali. Fifty percent of all the active inventory is priced between $5,000,000 and $7,000,000. Thus far one home sold in that price range with one additional home listed above $5,000,000 under contract.

It is worth comparing the homes that sold for between $5,000,000 and $7,000,000 last year with the current inventory in this price range. Last year’s sales included two large homes on acreage in Ka’anapali Coffee Farms and a 6,575 square foot home in the Pinnacle. While size isn’t everything when it comes to value, this year’s $5,000,000 and up listings tend to be smaller homes on smaller lots than last year’s sales. The active inventory includes four homes in Lanikeha with the largest home coming in at 4,557 square feet and a home in Kaanapali Coffee Farms substantially smaller than both of last year’s highest priced sales in that neighborhood.

It is also worth noting that all of the active listings in this range appear to be spec builds. There are two more spec builds in Lanikeha priced between $4,000,000 and $5,000,000. This volume of spec building is almost unheard of in the Maui Luxury home market. It will be interesting to watch the sellers of these spec builds through the rest of the year, especially if we see additional shifts in the market and or the economy. I surmise that it may take some pencil sharpening for some of those properties to go under contract.

As for overall Ka’anapali luxury home market activity in late 22 early 23, inventory constraints at lower price points will impact sales volume. Any additional sales beyond the current pendings will mostly come via new inventory or price adjustments. Rising borrower costs may also curtail activity. While there is a fair amount of cash in the market, rate increases will impact affordability for some buyers. Negative economic news and declines in the equity markets could also cause some buyers to put second home purchases on hold.

Aerial view of the Ka'anapali Coastline
The Ka’anapali Coastline

Ka’anapali Condo Market Numbers

  • As of September 23rd, Maui Realtors reported 123 condos sold in Ka’anapali for the year to date. That is 37% fewer than the 194 that closed over the same period of 2021. It is 14.95% more than the 107 that sold during the same period of 2019.
  • The Median price of the condos sold for the year to date is $1,450,000. This is 52.63% higher than the median of $950,000 from last year over this same span. It is 63.66% higher than the median for the same period of 2019.
  • The average price of the condos sold for the year to date is $1,724,465. That is a 31.67% increase over last year’s average through September 23rd. It is 54.15% above the 2019 average during the same time span.
  • 23.58% of all of the condos sold thus far this year sold for over asking price, and 47.15% sold for asking price or above. That’s well above last year’s numbers of 8.76% over asking and 44.33% for asking price or above. Just to give some context as to what is was like pre-Covid, in 2019 only 2.8% of sales sold for over asking and 16.82% sold for asking price or above.
  • Maui Realtors reported that 51.21% of all sales were cash transactions. That’s up a little over the 50% reported last year. Cash purchases were actually higher at 59.81% in 2019.
  • The lowest priced condo to sell in Ka’anapali is a leasehold studio unit in Ka’anapali Shores that closed for $325,000.
  • The highest priced condo to sell closed for $5,899,000. The 3 bedroom, 3 bath unit in the Konea Tower at Honua Kai has 2,280 square feet of living space.
  • Honua Kai is the busiest condo development thus far this year with 37 closed transactions. Ka’anapali Shoes is second busiest with 20 sales for the year to date. The Masters had the third most inventory with 15 sales.

Ka’anapali Year to Date Review and Late 2022 Early 2023 Market Outlook

While the Ka’anapali Condo market for the year to date did not see a repeat a the astounding sales volume of 2021, it remained a busy market well above the levels seen in 2019. If anything, constrained inventory and continued demand made for a more competitive market than last year with more properties closing for over asking price. The market conditions meant continued upward pressure on prices.

As it stands, the vacation rental and second home condo market continues to be resilient as some other types of property on island start to feel a market shift. As of the 26th of September, there are only 17 active condo listings on the market in all of Ka’anapali. Limited inventory improves the position of sellers and continues to exert at least some upward pressure on pricing. It will be interesting to see how the limited supply balances out against demand. Again, the cash in this market makes it a little less interest rate sensitive, but there is still some impact. As of right now, a 30 year fixed on a vacation rental condo is being quoted as high as 8.5%. Needless to say, a lot of borrowers are opting for ARM products. Even those are a lot more expensive.

Ka'anapali Monthly New Condo Pending Sales
Monthly new condo pending sales in Ka’anapali from 2018-2022

The chart above shows pending condo sales by month in Ka’anapali over the last five years. A few things worth noting when looking at the chart. The first things is that 2021 and 2020 are anomalies with 2019 and 2018 more normal markets. If you are wondering about the April 2018 spike in pending sales, the market got a boost from a new development, Honua Kai Luana Gardens Villas. It’s also worth noting that while 2022 pending sales started stronger than 2019 and 2018, monthly pendings for 2022 are running behind both 2019 and 2018 since May. The last thing is that while there is a little more activity in the first half of most years, the second half of the year sees steady activity. I would suspect that we will see “below normal” market activity through the rest of the year.

Based on inventory and seasonality, I would anticipate relatively limited sales volume to close out the year. With the amount of inventory available, the economy in flux and borrowing costs the highest since 2002, it looks like a quieter start to 2023 could be in order. We shall see what happens going forward.

Contact The Maui Real Estate Team

Contact The Maui Real Estate Team if you have questions about this post or if you need assistance buying or selling property in the Ka’anapali area. You can find all of the current active Ka’anapali Homes for Sale, Ka’anapali Condos for Sale and Ka’anapali Land for Sale on MauiRealEstate.com.

Pete Jalbert

Maui Real Estate Blog

September 2022 Paia Real Estate Market Update

Keep Austin Weird. Keep Portland Weird. Keep Paia weird. Yes, it’s time to check in on market conditions in Maui’s quirky North Shore beachtown. The Paia real estate market is doing it’s best to keep things strange with market behavior different this year compared to most other Maui communities.

This update focuses only on Paia and Kuau. Our local MLS lumps these areas together with the Spreckelsville neighborhood. We think that these markets are different enough that they merit their own discussions. If interested, we did a Spreckelsville update earlier this summer.

Notable Numbers from the 2022 Paia Real Estate Market

  • As of September 19th, Maui Realtors reported 12 home sales and 1 condo sale during 2022. By comparison, there were 22 home sales and 3 condo sales during the same period of 2021. That is a 45% decrease in home sale activity. There were 12 home sales and 3 condo sales during the same period of 2019.
  • Of the 12 homes sold this year, 3 homes sold for over asking price and one sold for full price. That is 33% of the inventory selling for asking or above. Last year, 6 homes sold for above asking price and 6 sold for full price. That is 54.5% selling for asking price or above. In 2019, no homes sold for over asking price while just under 42% sold for full price.
  • Of the 12 homes that sold, 6 sold for cash. The listing realtor for the one Kuau condo sale also reported it to be cash transaction.
  • The median price of homes sold in Paia is $969,999. That is 7.8% higher than last year’s median of $900,000 and 45.5% lower than the 2019 median of $1,411,562. Note, this is a classic case of how changes in median prices don’t necessarily reflect changes in values, particularly in a small market. Needless to say, prices rose substantially since 2019.
  • The average sales price of the homes sold in 2022 is $969,166. That is 56.73% lower than the 2021 average of $2,239,886. It is 28.31% lower than 2019 average of $1,310,010.
  • The lowest priced home sale for the year to date closed for $650,000. The 3 bedroom, 1 bathroom home with 1,440 square feet of living space on a 6,604 square foot lot is located in the Paia Halelani subdivision. It’s worth noting that the home needed significant repairs and updates when purchased.
  • The highest priced sale in Paia for the year to date closed for $1,445,000. The 3 bedroom, 2.5 bathroom home with 1,512 square feet of living space is located on a 6,094 square foot lot in Kuau Bayview. It sold before hitting the MLS.
  • Skill Village showed the most year to date sales activity of any neighborhood in Paia with 5 sales. Paia Halealani and Kuau came next with 2 sales each.
  • The one condo sale in Kuau Plaza this year closed for $700,000. The one bedroom, one bath unit set a new all time record high in the complex. That’s particularly noteworthy since the previous high sale from last year is a 2 bedroom.

Making Sense of The Numbers

Maybe I am leaning into the weird theme a little too much. Paia’s sales activity compared to last year shows some similarity to a lot of other communities on island. Lower sales volume is common throughout the island due to both inventory constraints and slackening demand. There are really two numbers in Paia and Kuau that stand out as being unusual. The average sales price and the high home sales price both caught the eye. Both are well below not just 2021 numbers, but also 2019 sales numbers.

You can attribute both the average sales price and the low high sales priced to a lack of activity in the high end market. During the same period last year, there were 8 transactions that closed for more than this year’s high sale. That includes 3 sales for $8,000,000 or more. So what’s driving the lack of luxury market activity? Is it inventory? Is it demand? A combination of the two or something else?

Let’s look at the inventory side of things first. At first glance, inventory does not appear to be an issue. The list price of 5 out of 7 current active listings is over $2,000,000. All of those listings have over 100 days on market. Four additional listings over $2,000,000 were on the market in Paia this year but subsequently withdrawn. That could speak to lack of demand, but little to no high end demand goes against the grain compared to other high end market around the island.

Assessing demand isn’t straight forward. There may be buyers shopping for properties in this price range, but if the inventory in question or the price of the inventory in question does not appeal to the market, you aren’t going to see that demand reflected in the stats.

Let’s look at Paia and Kuau oceanfront activity. Last year, there were three sales on the water as of September 19th including 2 sales for $8,000,000 or above. Those transactions were two of the three highest priced sales in Paia and Kuau to date. High end buyers in the market for Paia or Kuau oceanfront had two oceanfront options this year. Both properties listed well above the all time high sales price.

Now, it certainly isn’t outside the realm of possibility to set new high prices in the current market. That said, it’s not too hard to make a case that the list price for both properties is well above market. The one listing, currently off the market, sold in 2021 for $5,200,000. Without significant improvements, the seller relisted for 90% higher than what they paid a year earlier. The other listing is now on the market for the 13th time since 2005. With now almost 3,000 days on market, you can safely say the market is providing some feedback on the list price.

Based on the above, it seems like some of the owners of Paia and Kuau’s higher priced listings may need to sharpen their pencils if they want to find the market. It’s worth noting that there is one listing for over $2,000,000 under contract. 2012 was the last year where there were no sales over $2,000,000 in Paia or Kuau.

Outlook for the Rest of the Year and Early 2023

Including the one pending transaction noted above, there are three total pending sales in Paia and Kuau at this time. So there should be at least some sales activity to close out the year. The question is what other market activity can we expect in Paia and Kuau. I look at recent demand for new listings, inventory and seasonality to try to get some sense of what we might expect the rest of the year.

When gauging current demand in a community, I like to look at the percentage of properties that go under contract within 10 days of coming to market. I will be honest, I am somewhat wary of how effective this metric is for a community like Paia and Kuau just due to the low sample size. Only two listings came to the market since August 1. One went under contract within 10 days, the other went under contract within a month. That would appear to suggest that there is still some demand out there, but again small sample size.

The available inventory is likely to be a limiting factor for activity. With just seven total listings, no listings under $1,000,000 and all active listings on the market for more than 100 days, it would seem activity will likely need to come via a combination price adjustments, negotiations or new inventory.

New Pending Sales by Month in Paia and Kuau between 2018 and 2022.
New Pending Sales in Paia and Kuau by Month between 2018-2022.

Last thing I wanted to look at is seasonality in the Paia and Kuau area. The chart above shows pending sales in the area by month over the last five years. While the first half of the year tends to be busier than the last quarter, December is typically a good month for sales activity in Paia. We shall see if that’s the case this year.

One last thing to note, recent interest rate hikes add head winds to the current market. While the Paia market is a little less exposed due to the percentage of cash transactions, the rate increases will impact affordability for financed buyers.

Contact The Maui Real Estate Team

Our office is located in Paia just off Baldwin Avenue. Needless to say, we keep close tabs on the Paia market. Contact The Maui Real Estate Team for assistance buying or selling property in the Paia area. We leverage our local knowledge, experience and connections to provide quality representation. Check out our Paia Real Estate Page to look at current inventory and to search by neighborhood.

Pete Jalbert

Maui Real Estate Blog

The Outdoor Spaces of the Oasis Spreckelsville

Year round outdoor living. It is one of the things near the top of the list for advantages to living in Hawaii. Warm weather and cooling trade winds beckon you to spend time outside. I know this isn’t exactly a revelation, but it seems that so many architects and builders fail to maximize outdoor spaces. That’s one of the things that makes the Oasis Spreckelsville such a well conceived home. The owner thought out every square inch of exterior living space and landscaping. The end result is beautiful, functional and surprisingly easy to maintain.

The Pools

It’s hard not to start any conversation of the Oasis outdoor spaces without first talking about the pools. There is a 12′ X 31′ main pool, a 5′ X 64′ lap pool and a 6’x 12′ heated spa. All of the pools are zero edge. Surrounding decking conceals storage reservoirs and drainage for the pools. Rather than using marcite or gunite, the owners used 36″ x 18″ tile to surface the pools. In addition to the pools, there is another zen fresh water feature with fountains adjacent to the lap pool.

The Zero Edge Main Pool at the Oasis
The Zero Edge Main Pool at the Oasis
The lap pool
The lap pool at the Oasis
The heated spa
The heated spa

The Lanai Spaces

Outdoor living spaces make homes live much larger than their interior square footage. This property has tons of outdoor living space. The covered lanai that overlooks the main pool is one of our favorite spaces on the property. Whenever we are at the property between showings, we find ourselves gravitating towards this beautiful space. The decking material itself is incredibly durable Ipe. The vaulted overhead ceilings include recessed lighting along the edge. A Boffi fan helps to augment the cooling tradewinds. The Richard Schultz furniture included with the sale is incredibly comfortable.

The front covered lanai at the Oasis overlooking the main pool.

The ipe decking expands beyond the front lanai area. There is decking that wraps around three sides of the house creating even more outdoor living space. There is a large area off the living room and kitchen that abuts against the outdoor water feature. It faces East and catches nice light in the morning to enjoy tea, coffee or maybe even some yoga to start the day. The lanai space appears equally suited to both quiet contemplation or capable of hosting a larger gathering of friends or family.

The side lanai area off the living room and kitchen.

The Outdoor Barbecue Area

With all of the outdoor space to enjoy, you have to have a good place to cook and prepare meals outside. The barbecue area overlooks the main pool. There is a sink and plentiful counter space for food prep or serving. Two 125 gallon propane tanks ensure that you never run out of gas during the middle of a barbecue.

A sink and food prep area by the barbecue overlooks the main pool.
Looking over the barbecue area towards the heated spa

The Landscaping

The owner studied botany. It shows. The plants throughout the property were carefully curated just likes the home’s building materials, fixtures and furnishings. The result is a beautiful and lush environment. One of the things that is most notable about the landscaping though is that it is relatively low maintenance. There is hardly any grass to mow due to the extensive lanai areas, blue stone pathways and the use of river rock and cinder around the landscaping. A number of the palms used are self shedding varieties that don’t require trimming.

The graceful swoop of the palm that grows between the barbecue area and the kitchen is eye catching. While the landscaping of the home is carefully curated, this palm wasn’t trained to grow this way. That was just how it grew. Can’t argue with the results.
Fan palms, bottle palms and beautiful ferns help frame the front lanai.

The Oasis Outdoor Spaces at Night

The Oasis truly become magical when the sun starts to go down. Outdoor lighting fixtures by Flos, Bocci and others help to take the outdoor space to a whole other level.

The Outdoor Spaces of the Oasis become truly magical at night
The Oasis takes it up to another level when the sun goes down
The lap pool at night
The lap pool at night

Other Outdoor Features

Some of the most notable additional outdoor features include:

  • Tasteful fencing for full privacy
  • Balinese entry gate and accent panels
  • Five panel art display over the lap pool by Abigail Romanchak
  • Three outdoor showers. One is perfectly located off an entry gate for a post beach rinse. The other two side by side Boffi Showers are located on a stretch of lanai between the two pools.
Side by side Boffi showers off the lanai
  • Hot and cold water hose bib by the garage with numerous other hose bibs around the house
  • Outdoor Bose Speaker system (wired) to a series of Sonos Amps
  • Rainbird sprinkler system

Contact The Maui Real Estate Team

The asking price for the Oasis is $9,800,000. Check out the Oasis listing page for more photos and details. Qualified buyers may contact the Maui Real Estate Team for more information or to arrange a private viewing.

Pete Jalbert