Maui Real Estate Blog
Spreckelville Real Estate June 2021 Market Update
While last week’s stats post was the first in a long time, it’s been even longer since I posted a neighborhood specific update. With that in mind, no time better than the present to catch up on the real estate happenings in the Spreckelsville neighborhood on Maui’s North Shore. This beachfront community is a favorite of the Maui Real Estate Team. Our broker Billy calls it his home as does Martin Lenny, one of our agents. The combination of convenient location, great beaches and access to world class wind and water sports make this an incredibly desirable location. Today’s post takes a look at market activity during the Covid-19 era.
Notable Sales Numbers
- Eight properties sold in Spreckelsville between April of 2020 and June of 2021. That includes 6 homes and 2 lots.
- Seven of the eight sales were cash transactions. The one other sale was a trade.
- The Maui Real Estate Team represented the buyer or the seller on seven of the eight sales.
- There was only one off market sale during this period. All of the other sales made it to the MLS.
- The sales activity was spread throughout all but the Kai Holu Subdivision. The sales included one home closed in the Sprecks V area, one home on Stable Road, one home and one lot in E Paepae Ka Puko’a (The Spencer Subdivision). The rest of the sales were in Old Sprecks.
- One oceanfront home closed thus far during Covid. There is a second oceanfront home pending.
- The highest priced transaction to close came in at $4,000,000 for a home on .57 acres on Stable Road. The four bedroom, two bath home sits one lot back from the oceanfront with easy beach access. This transaction closed in March of 2021.
- The highest priced lot closed for $2,750,000. This .789 acre lot is situated off of Nonohe in Old Sprecks is right next to the Maui Country Club with deeded access to Stable Road.
- In addition to the 8 sales, there are three properties under contract including our office’s listing at Sugar Cove.
Thoughts on The Sprecks Market
Maui’s high end real estate market boomed during Covid-19. More accurately, it took off in late 2020 and through the first half of 2021. Home sales over $2,000,000 are up 335% during the first five months of 2021 compared to the same period of 2020. They are up 368% compared to the first five months of 2019. Areas like Kapalua, Ka’anapali and Upcountry Maui saw record sales volume for luxury property. That also meant the occasional bidding war and an above asking sales prices became more common.
The Sprecks market hasn’t hit the same heights as some of the other areas of the island. While the five properties sold for the year to date is the highest since 2014, it wasn’t unprecedented. None of the properties that sold closed above asking price and we only saw one multiple offer situation. This is not an indictment of the Sprecks market or the appeal of the neighborhood. It is more of a reflection of the fact that Spreckelsville is a high demand low sales volume area. Inventory levels consistently remain low with limited turnover. Many of the markets that saw the sharpest increase in activity came into Covid with an abundance of inventory. Plentiful supply combined with strong demand to create record sales volumes.
Spreckelsville Market Outlook
Based on the above, I imagine it isn’t too much of a surprise that I view inventory as the driving factor in the market for the remainder of 2021. There are currently four active listings and three pending listings. Based on recent trends, I would imagine that additional inventory will remain relatively scarce. Check out our Spreckelsville Real Estate listings page for the current inventory of homes for sale. Contact the Maui Real Estate Team if you are interested in buying or selling a property in Spreckelsville. We know the market since it is our own backyard.
Maui Real Estate Blog
June 2021 Maui Real Estate Market Update
When the pandemic started, we provided weekly updates on market conditions on Maui. There were a lot of unknowns at that point and plenty free time to put together statistics. As market conditions improved from the doldrums of the spring and summer of 2020, carving out time became harder. By the middle of fall, weekly updates slipped to once every few weeks. I last posted a market update in mid-January. The frequency of the posts inversely correlates with market conditions. A quieter market meant more frequent posts, while the dearth of posts over the last 6 months is a testament to the busiest period of real estate transactions seen on Maui to date.
I had a little bit of time to catch my breath this week so I wanted to catch you up on market conditions through the first five months of 2021. While I am loathe to enter the world of prognostication after the surprising turn in market conditions last year, I will also provide a few thoughts on the outlook for the next few months.
The Covid-19 Pandemic created a real estate boom in a number of markets throughout the mainland United States as early as late Spring of 2020. Due to the travel restrictions to Hawaii, the Maui market remained comparatively quiet. We saw a modest uptick in activity in June after stay at home orders were lifted. As the year progressed, momentum increased. The resumption of tourism in October caused another uptick in demand. The Maui market hit a whole new gear in 2021.
Maui Realtors reported 598 homes sold during the first five months of the 2021. That calculates to roughly a 57% increase over the 389 homes sold during the same period of 2020. The difference in sales between 2021 and 2020 increased in part due to growing demand, but also due to the fact that Covid-19 impacted April and May 2020 sales volumes . The monthly difference in sales volume started at 18.8%in January and peaked at 290% in May. To be clear, the sales volumes for 2021 don’t look strong just due to weaker 2020 numbers. By comparison, home sales for the first five months of 2021 were 33.4% stronger than the same period of 2019.
Maui Realtors reported an impressive 1,019 condos sold over the first five months of 2021. That represents an 81% increase in sales volume over the 564 condos sold during the same period of 2020. As with the single family home market, the difference in sales between the two years is due in part to depressed sales in April and May of 2020, and a big surge in activity in 2021. This is evident in the monthly numbers. The January 2021 sales volume actually fell below January 2020 by 10%. Sales volume picked up dramatically in February of 2021 as evidenced by the 24.6% increase over February 2020. By May, the difference in monthly sales volume between 2021 and 2020 rocketed up to 448%. It is notable that the months of March through May were the first ever months where condo sales volumes exceeded 200 closed transactions on Maui.
While the number of properties going under contract soared, the number of new listings coming to market remained limited. The result was rapidly shrinking inventory for the first five months of the year.
According to the Realtors Association of Maui (RAM), there were only 203 active home listings at the very end of May. That is 37% below the 318 active home listings at the end of December. It is 54% lower than at the end of February 2020 right before covid impacted the market. The home inventory declined steadily throughout the pandemic.
As of the end of May, RAM reported 224 active condo listings. This is 68% below the number of active condo listings at the end of December. It is 58% below the number of condos for sale listed right before the start of Covid at the end of February of 2020. The decline in condo inventory hasn’t been quite as linear as the decrease in home inventory. Active condo inventory grew every month between March of 2020 and December of 2020. That makes the decrease in inventory in 2021 all that much more dramatic. It is also worth noting that the home and condo inventory weren’t exactly robust going into the start of Covid. Pre-Covid, there was less than 6 months of homes and condo inventory.
I would surmise that some of the recent decreases in sales volume may be due in part to the lack of inventory. Buyers are looking, but there just isn’t much out there to buy. Well priced properties are still seeing a frenzy of activity.
Strong demand and shrinking inventory resulted in a lot of upward price pressure over the first five months of 2021. This is evident as Maui’s median sales priced crossed the $1,000,000 barrier for the month of May.
If you are long time readers of this blog, you may know that I am somewhat wary of using median sales price as a means of tracking changes in property values. The change in median price is based in part on change in value and also in part due to the composition of sales. A higher number of high end sales in anyone month can help push median sales price upwards. There is no doubt that this is a factor in the current market. We are seeing a much higher number of high end properties closing in this market. That said, it is also clear that prices are increasing.
Determining an exact number for the change in values is difficult. The Maui market is pretty heterogeneous in terms of structure size, lot size, location, view and finishing. There is also some variability in how much values are increasing in different geographies and price points. Contact us to discuss changes in value specific to areas of the market of interest to you.
What to Expect Going Forward?
I gave up prognosticating on this market earlier in the pandemic. If you told me market conditions would be what they are now back in April of 2020, let’s just say I would be skeptical. With that in mind, there are some things that I will be watching for over the months ahead.
Inventory The number of active listings tumbled throughout the spring on Maui. The limited inventory means a continued seller’s market. That said, we are starting to see increasing inventory on mainland markets. According to Axios Research, the inventory of single family homes nationally is up 7% since April 30th. Will our market start to see the increase in inventory? We seemed to lag behind the mainland market in terms of market trends throughout Covid-19 due to our inaccessibility. Will that continue?
Overly Ambitious Sellers As mentioned above, we are currently seeing strong appreciation in the market. Over the last month, I have started to see some pretty ambitious list prices with prices well above recent comparable sales. Will buyers be willing to absorb these higher prices due to lack of inventory? If not, will sellers be willing to adjust their pricing downward. Thus far, I am seeing a little bit of both. Some sellers are adjusting quickly to negative market feedback. Others have the means to wait and see if the market will come to them.
Interest Rates Global supply change disruptions due to Covid are causing inflationary pressure. There is a lot of argument amongst people a lot smarter than me as to how long this will continue. Inflation can bring rising interest rates. Thus far, the Federal Reserve is not inclined to raise rates. They view the inflation as temporary. If inflation were to be more prolonged, pressure to react may increase.
Other Impacts on Buyer Demand Rising interest rates are just one factor that could impact buyer demand. It’s pretty clear that a significant portion of buyers over the last year came from off island. Maui became a Zoom Town so to speak. With rising levels of the population fully vaccinated, some businesses are calling their employees back to the office. What does that mean for demand going forward? Could that also impact supply if some of those called back to the office decide to sell their homes?
Covid also brought a surge of second home buying. There are some signs that this may be cooling in other markets around the country. Redfin released a report this week that showed mortgage applications for second homes are decreasing. They attributed this in part due to tightened rules for second home lending. They also attribute decreased demand due to rising home prices. Some second home buyers are feeling priced out after recent price increases.
These affordability issues already knocked a lot of local home buyers out of the market. Some are priced out. Others are struggling to compete with the cash or higher down payments from affluent buyers relocating from the Continental United States.
Contact The Maui Real Estate Team
While I am again tentative to offer any sort of forecast, I would surmise that we won’t see any seismic shifts in market conditions anytime soon. Any relief in supply is likely to be gradual while the recovering economy should sustain some demand. Buyers looking in this market are likely to find that well priced properties generate a lot of interest. Bidding wars are common at all price points. The competitions can be particularly fierce at and below the $1,000,000 mark. Sellers will find favorable market conditions. With such limited inventory, it is hard to be overlooked by the market. This means that sellers will get market feedback on their pricing pretty quickly. Contact The Maui Real Estate Team if you are considering buying or selling property on Maui. We would welcome the opportunity to provide a free consultation.
Maui Real Estate Blog
January 16, 2021 Maui Real Estate Market Update
Maui’s Real Estate market started 2021 on a similar foot to how it ended 2020. Strong buyer demand continues to persist. I haven’t quite gotten back to weekly posting, but this week’s post should at least have us caught up. I will take a brief look at the numbers over the seven day period between December 30th and January 5th followed by a more in depth look at the very busy week between January 6th and January 12th. Keep reading for more numbers.
Buyer Activity Between December 30th and January 5th
Christmas time is traditionally thought of as the start of peak buyer season on Maui. This correlates with the start of peak visitor season. That said, the weeks right after Christmas and around the new year tend to be something of a mixed bag for Maui Real Estate. Some years, buyer activity is particularly robust. Other years it is more quiet. Despite comparatively low visitor numbers, the seven days between December 30th, 2020 and January 5th, 2021 showed solid activity.
- Maui Realtors reported 62 pending sales between the 30th and the 5th. That is 11% higher than the week prior. It is 63% more activity than the same seven day period last year.
- The 62 pending sales include 21 homes, 35 condos and 6 lots.
- The high end market remains busy with 9 properties priced $2,000,000 or above going under contract.
- Sales were solid with 65 closed transactions. This reflects the solid buyer demand from October through early December.
- New inventory was limited between the 30th and the 5th with 40 new listings. That includes only 12 homes and 1 lot.
While this week represented represented a solid start for our “typical” buyer season, the numbers for the 6th-12th of January are pretty eye popping.
New Pending Sales January 6th-12th
Maui County Realtors reported 92 new pending sales over the seven day period between January 6th and 12th. That is a 48% increase in buyer activity over both the seven days prior and the same seven day period of 2020.
Notable Numbers From the Pending Sales Between January 6th-12th
- The 92 pending sales included 35 homes, 47 condos and 10 lots.
- This is a highest number of weekly pending sales than any seven day period of 2020.
- The 47 new pending condo sales represents the highest weekly total since I began tracking this data during Covid.
- Of the 47 pending condo sales, 26 are vacation rental friendly condos. Another 6 new pending condo sales are located in resort developments that prohibit vacation rentals.
- The high end market continues to be busy with 10 new pending sales over $2,000,000. That includes 7 homes and 3 condos.
- The 10 new pending land sales ties the previous Covid era weekly high.
January 6-12 Closed Transactions
Maui Realtors reported 57 closed transactions over the seven day period between January 6th and 12th. That is 10% lower than the seven days prior. That is 68% higher than the same seven day period of 2020.
New Inventory Between January 6th and January 12th
Maui Realtors listed 74 properties over the seven day period between January 6th and 12th. That is an 85% increase in new listings over the week prior. It is 4% lower than the same seven day period of 2020.
Of the 74 new listings, 22 are single family homes. That is well below the 35 new home pending sales this week. That means a further reduction in inventory. Thus far, the new year is not bringing a respite from our home inventory shortage.
Forty new condo listings came to market between the 6th and the 12th. Normally, that would represent a pretty strong week for new inventory. That said, it is still below the 48 new pending condo sales. The condo inventory is not as limited as the single family home inventory. It is worth noting that there is also a fair amount of variability in the supply depending on geography and price point.
The land inventory is the only market segment with a net increase this week thanks to 12 new listings. That compares to 10 pendings. This modest increase is hardly anything to move the market. As a whole the inventory of lots for sale remains pretty stable.
Contact The Maui Real Estate Team
Needless to say, the numbers point to continued robust market activity. Buyer demand remains strong and supply limited. Contact The Maui Real Estate Team if you are thinking of buying or selling property. We look forward to working with you and learning more about your real estate needs.
Maui Real Estate Blog
January 7th, 2021, Semi-Weekly, Occasional Maui Real Estate Update
I haven’t quite reclaimed my weekly posting mojo hence the title of this post. That said, I wanted to look at sales activity for the seven day period between December 23rd and 29th. I also wanted to highlight some of the numbers from December 16th-22nd. That was a pretty extraordinary week for real estate activity on Maui. Keep reading for notable numbers from those 14 days.
A Quick Recap of December 16th-22nd
While it may not be getting its own post, this week can’t go without mention. It was far and away the busiest seven day period of 2020. That includes the pre-pandemic market. While it isn’t unusual for us to be outperforming pre-pandemic numbers, the weeks right before Christmas don’t typically see robust market activity. The winter time off island buyers tend to become more active right after Christmas. On island buyers tend to be more focused on the holidays than home buying.
Here are some notable numbers from the 16th-22nd.
- There were 86 new pending sales. That is 21% higher than the previous high for 2020. It is 56% more activity than the same seven day period of 2019.
- The home market was a big driver for this robust week of activity. The 40 new weekly pending home sales is a high for the year.
- Heightened activity at higher price points also played a role. An impressive 11 properties went pending listed over $2,000,000 including 5 over $6,000,000. Of note, 2 homes subsequently fell out of contract.
- The 16th-22nd also saw a lot of high end sales with 9 transactions closing for more than $2,000,000. That includes a $19,000,000 oceanfront sale in Makena. That comes on the heels of an oceanfront estate in Kapalua that Closed for $24,000,000 the week prior. That sale was the highest ever in West Maui.
Needless to say, the 16th-22nd was an extremely busy week for buyers. Now on to our latest seven day tracking period.
New Pending Sales for December 23-29th
Maui Realtors reported 56 new pending sales over the seven day period between December 23rd and December 29th. This is a 35% drop in activity from the the extremely busy seven days prior. That said, it is 65% higher than the same seven day period of 2019. It is worth remembering that this seven day period includes Christmas. The drastic increase over last year provides some context for the high demand this year.
Notable Numbers From The Pending Sales Between December 22nd-28th.
- The 56 pending sales include 23 homes, 30 condos and 3 lots.
- The 30 condo sales include 16 vacation rentals . There are 4 additional condos located in resort areas that prohibit vacation rentals.
- Seven properties listed for more than $2,000,000 went under contract. They include 5 homes and 2 condos.
Closed Transactions Between December 22nd and 28th
Maui Realtors reported 55 sales over the seven day period between December 23rd and December 29th. This is 21% fewer transactions than the seven days prior. It is 62% higher than the same seven day period of 2019. As with the pending sales, we would expect lower numbers compared to the week prior. There is one less day for recorded sales, and some sellers and buyers would want to avoid closing right around Christmas. That said, the 2019 numbers provide some context as to how busy things were comparatively.
New Listings December 23rd-29th
Maui Realtors listed 40 properties in the seven day period between December 23rd and 29th. That is 34% fewer properties than the seven days prior. It is 5% more new listings than the same seven day period of 2019. It is not a big surprise that this is a quieter week for new inventory. Listings that come to market right around the holiday may not get as much visibility with buyers.
Of the 40 new listings, only 12 are homes. This is quite a bit less than the 20 that went under contract. Scarcity of inventory remains a big factor in the single family home market as we enter the new year.
The new listings between the 23rd and 29th included 27 condos. This is also below the 30 condos that went under contract. While there is more condo inventory than home inventory available, buyers may find limited inventory depending on where they are searching.
There was just 1 new land listing to hit the market between the 23rd and the 29th. The land market saw a slight decrease in inventory over December. While there is variability based on geography, the land market also suffers to an extent from a lack of options.
Contact The Maui Real Estate Team
As we enter the new year, buyer activity remains strong and supply limited. At the same time, there seems to be growing instability in the world with Covid numbers continuing to rise and significant political unrest. Will that impact the market? Thus far, the Maui market remains resilient. If anything there is an argument that the relative safe haven of Maui may be appealing to buyers. We continue to work hard for buyers and sellers in these challenging times. Contact The Maui Real Estate Team if you are looking to buy or sell property on Maui. We look forward to talking to you and learning more about your real estate needs.
Maui Real Estate Blog
Weekly Maui Real Estate Update December 16th
The title of this post is something of a misnomer. I last posted an update almost a month ago. That is a reflection of current market conditions. More time showing property and less time time to blog. Being that it’s been a while, this will be a bulked up post. I wanted to give a quick update on market conditions over the period when I didn’t post. I will also have specific details on market activity for the seven day period between December 2nd and 8th.
Catching Up on The Market
With your resident blogger slacking over the last four weeks, here is a higher level overview on the market dynamics through the end of November. These are some of the key points on recent market activity.
- Pending sales activity dipped slightly for the three weeks prior to December 2nd-8th. After averaging 60 plus weekly new pending sales for 7 straight weeks, weekly new pendings over this period dipped into the high 50s. While not as robust as October, this is still pretty strong demand. A lack of inventory at lower price points isn’t helping sales numbers.
- Sales are pretty strong. In August and September, weekly sales numbers were fluctuating quite a bit. Recent numbers are more consistent. This is a reflection of the higher number of properties that went under contract earlier in the fall..
- Home inventory remains tight. There was slight growth in the number of new home listings during the last three weeks of November. That said, buyers shopping at or below the median sales price didn’t see a lot of new listings. It is also worth noting that the luxury home inventory is tightening with really limited offerings available in places like Kapalua.
- From June-September, we saw a lot of new condo inventory come to market. The increase in inventory slowed in October and it slowed even further in the last three weeks of November. There was a net decrease in inventory over that time.
- The luxury market is particularly strong. Employees are taking advantage of their employers work from anywhere edicts during Covid-19. We are seeing an influx of high income earners relocating to Maui. We are seeing market dynamics we have never seen before in the high end property market. Short days on market and multiple offer situations were unheard of until the last few months. We also are seeing more activity than usual in the $10,000,000 and above market.
Now that you are caught up a little on recent market dynamics. Let’s get to the numbers from our most recent seven day tracking period.
This Week’s New Pending Sales
Maui Realtors reported 60 new pending sales over the seven day period between December 2nd and 8th. This is a modest 3% increase over the seven days prior. It is 13% more activity than the same seven day period of 2019.
Notable Numbers from This Week’s Pending Sales
- The 60 new pending sales include 34 homes, 22 condos and 4 lots.
- This is the first time in six weeks that new home pending sales outpaced new condo pending sales. It is the most new weekly home pending sales since late September.
- This is the first time in four weeks that weekly pendings went back above the 60 mark.
- The 22 condo pending sales included 12 vacation rental condos.
- There are 6 new pending sales priced over $2,000,000 for the period between the 2nd and the 8th. They include 4 homes, 1 condo and 1 lot.
This Week’s Closed Transactions
Maui Realtors reported 54 sales during the 7 day period between December 2nd, and December 8th. That is 5% fewer sales than the seven days prior. It is 32% higher than the same seven day period of 2019. Of note, there were 7 transactions that closed for over $2,000,000. Six of the seven properties sold are located in West Maui.
Weekly New Inventory
Maui Realtors listed 66 properties between December 2nd and December 8th. That is 14% higher than the seven days prior. It is 8% higher than the same seven day period of 2019.
Of the 66 new listings, 28 are homes. That is the highest number of homes listed in a seven day period since late September. The median price of the new home listings comes in at $905,000. While that is a lower median than quite a few recent weeks, it is still a pretty high number for those looking for properties at lower price points. Due to the high number of pending sales between the 2nd and the 8th, the inventory of active home listings decreased.
Between December 2nd and December 8th, 32 new condo listings came on the market. With only 22 condos going under contract over the same period, the inventory of active condo listings increased.
Maui Realtors listed 6 lots between December 2nd and the 8th. That represents a slight increase of inventory with only 4 lots going pending over the same period.
Contact The Maui Real Estate Team
These posts speak in pretty broad brush strokes about the island’s real estate market. In reality, there is still some variability in market conditions by town, neighborhood and price point . Contact The Maui Real Estate Team to discuss market conditions in an area of the island specific to your interests. We welcome the chance to talk, zoom or e-mail and learn more about your real estate needs.
Maui Real Estate Blog
November 18 Weekly Maui Real Estate Market Update
Maui Real Estate activity remained strong over the seven day period between November 4th and 10th. While much of the world seemed glued to their phone or TV watching election results, buyers continued to submit offers. Closed transactions were strong over this period, while the number of new listings coming to market remained relatively limited. Keep reading below for more details on the numbers.
This Weeks New Pending Sales
Maui Realtors reported 63 new pending sales over the seven day period between November 4th and November 10th. That is the same exact number of new pendings as the seven days prior. It is 4% less than the same seven day period of 2019.
Notable Numbers from This Week’s New Pending Sales
- This is the seventh straight week of over 60 new pending sales.
- This week’s new pendings include 23 homes, 34 condos and 6 lots.
- Of the 34 new pending condo sales, 14 are located in vacation rental friendly condos. Three more are located in developments that prohibit vacation rentals.
- Buyers are returning to some of the entry level condos in Kihei that were quiet through much of Covid-19 with the active inventory steadily decreasing in places like Kihei Villages and Southpointe at Waiakoa.
- It was another busy week in the high end real estate market. Seven properties listed for over $2,000,000 went under contract including 4 homes, 2 condos and 1 lot.
This Week’s Closed Transactions
Maui Realtors reported 67 sales over the seven day period between November 4th and November 10th. That is approximately a 16% increase over the previous seven days. It is 49% higher than the same seven day period of 2019.
How Much New Inventory Hit The Market?
Maui Realtors listed 68 properties over the seven day period between November 4th and 10th. This is 8% lower than the previous seven day period. It is 24% lower than the same seven day period of 2019.
Once again, the condo market led the way with 43 new listings. With 34 condos going pending, that means a net increase in condo inventory. The condo market is interesting right now. There is pretty good demand coming from buyers. It seems like some of the increase in demand is for entry level non-vacation rental condos as I mentioned above. It’s not clear if that is coming from a resurgence in local buyers or off island buyers at this point.
Only 21 homes came to market between the 4th and the 10th. With 23 properties going under contract, that means a net decrease in active inventory. The median price of the new home listings for this period is an astounding $2,495,000 and the average price of the new listings is $4,446,333. Needless to say, this week didn’t provide much relief for buyers hoping for an increase in lower priced listings. The home market continues to feel upward pricing pressure due to limited inventory.
It was a quiet seven days for land listings with only 4 lots coming to market between the 4th and the 10th. With 6 lots going under contract over the same period, the active inventory of lots shrunk modestly.
Contact The Maui Real Estate Team
The Maui Real Estate market didn’t just survive election week. It thrived with strong buyer demand. While overall market conditions are strong, there is still variability in the market. Contact The Maui Real Estate Team if you are considering buying or selling property on Maui. We would welcome the chance to sit down and listen to your real estate needs and provide market insights specific to your interests.