The twenty-sixth edition of the market musings is slower out of the gate than usual. So let’s cut to the chase and look at the April Market Activity and a couple of other metrics that speak to current and future market conditions.

April Market Activity

The tables below show new Inventory, new pending sales and closed transactions for the month of April. The previous five years are shown for additional context. The numbers point to a markedly quieter April compared to previous years with of course one obvious exception. April of 2020 was of course a month with no off island visitors and stay at home orders for all but essential employees.

	April 2023	April 2022	April 2021	April 2020	April 2019	April 2018
Homes	68	94	122	72	117	123
Condos	91	154	182	124	161	153

New inventory continues to be limited on Maui. New home listings came in 28% below April of 2022. The number of new listings is 42% and 45% below April of 2019 and April of 2018. New condo inventory in April came in 41% lower than April of 2022. It came in 44% and 41% lower than 2019 and 2018 respectively.

	April 2023	April 2022	April 2021	April 2020	April 2019	April 2018
Homes	65	89	124	45	108	91
Condos	92	140	216	33	135	166

The number of homes that went pending in April of 2023 is 27% lower than April of 2022. It is 40% lower than April of 2019 and 29% below April of 2018. The number of new pending condo sales in April is 34% below April of 2022. It is 32% lower than April of 2019 and 45% less than April of 2018.

	April 2023	April 2022	April 2021	April 2020	April 2019	April 2018
Homes	55	105	129	82	74	88
Condos	85	168	262	85	136	176

The number of homes that sold in April came in 48% lower than April of 2022. It came in 26% lower than April of 2019 and 37% lower than April of 2018. The number of Condo sales in April of 2023 is 49% lower than April of 2022. It is 37% lower than April of 2019 and 52% below April of 2018.

End of April Home Inventory

The charts below show active and pending home in inventory in April by price point and community. They also include the numbers from the previous two months to show the general direction of the inventory.

	2/28/23		3/31/23		4/30/23
	Active	Pending	Active	Pending	Active	Pending
<$750,000	10	7	8	6	7 (-1)	2 (-4)
$750,000-$999,999	30	28	19	35	24 (+5)	25 (-10)
$1,000,000-$1,499,999	59	40	47	31	50 (+3)	32 (+1)
$1,500,000-$1,999,999	32	7	29	11	30 (+1)	17 (+6)
$2,000,000-$2,999,999	37	13	38	9	30 (-8)	12 (+3)
$3,000,000-$4,999,999	35	9	36	12	38 (+2)	15 (+3)
$5,000,000-$9,999,999	26	9	35	8	33 (-2)	7 (-1)
$10,000,000-$19,999,999	13	1	12	3	13 (+1)	2 (-1)
$20,000,000+	5	1	6	0	5 (-1)	0
Totals	247	115	230	115	230	112 (-3)

	2/28/23		3/31/23		4/30/23
	Active	Pending	Active	Pending	Active	Pending
Haiku	27	5	26	4	18 (-8)	10 (+6)
Hana	11	1	12	1	10 (-2)	3 (+2)
Ka’anapali	10	5	9	5	11 (+2)	4 (-1)
Kahului	18	8	8	12	9 (+1)	11 (-1)
Kapalua	6	2	10	1	10	2 (+1)
Kihei	29	24	24	16	23 (-1)	13 (-3)
Kula	14	14	16	13	19 (+3)	15 (+2)
Lahaina	16	8	16	3	14 (+2)	4 (+1)
Makawao	27	8	23	10	20 (-3)	14 (+4)
Napili/Kahana/Hono…	12	2	14	3	17 (+3)	2 (-1)
Pukalani	7	6	6	4	7 (+1)	2 (-2)
Sprecks/Paia	10	0	9	2	9	2
Wailea	14	7	15	8	19 (+4)	4 (-4)
Wailuku	35	21	29	26	30 (+1)	23 (-3)

Three Observations from the End of April Home Inventory

• No big change. The biggest takeaway may be that the home inventory at the end of April is almost identical to the end of March. The active listings are the exact same and there are just three fewer pending listings.
• Honing in on the market by price point, active inventory increased in more price points than it decreased. Pending sales increased in just as many price points as it decreased. The biggest increase in active home listings occurred between $750,000 and $999,999. The biggest increase in pending sales occurred between $1,500,000 and $1,999,999 with $2,000,000-$5,000,000 also seeing an increase in buyer activity.
• Looking at shifts in inventory by community produced a mix bag. The inventory of active homes increased modestly in most communities. With pending sales decreasing in most communities. That said, there were some exceptions. Haiku active inventory dropped and pending sales rose sharply. Wailea’s active inventory increased the most and pending sales decreased the most.

End of April Maui Condo Inventory

The charts below provide end of the month active and pending condo inventory by price point and district. Keep in mind that the Wailea pending sales continue to receive a boost from 75 new developer units under contract in La’i Loa at Wailea Hills. These properties went pending between 2020 and the the first quarter of 2021. Priced from just under $1,500,000 all the way up to over $4,000,000, these long term contracts are also skewing the pending sales upwards in this price range.

	2/28/2023		3/31/2023		4/30/2023
	Active	Pending	Active	Pending	Active	Pending
<$250,000	2	2	0	2	1 (+1)	1 (-1)
$250,000-$499,999	16	14	14	10	14	13 (+3)
$500,000-$749,999	41	42	48	27	46 (-2)	32 (+5)
$750,000-$999,999	29	45	32	31	26 (-6)	38 (+7)
$1,000,000-$1,499,999	33	30	27	31	22 (-5)	26 (-5)
$1,500,000-$1,999,999	33	35	24	42	25 (+1)	40 (-2)
$2,000,000-$2,999,999	18	41	17	38	16 (-1)	39 (+1)
$3,000,000-$4,999,999	12	17	15	17	12 (-3)	17
$5,000,000-$9,999,999	13	0	13	2	12 (-1)	2
$10,000,000+	5	0	6	0	4	0
Total	202	226	196	200	178	208

	2/28/23		3/31/23		4/30/23
	Active	Pending	Active	Pending	Active	Pending
Ka’anapali	27	6	23	11	22 (-1)	12 (+1)
Kahului	3	4	4	0	4	4 (+4)
Kapalua	14	5	13	7	10 (-3)	5 (-2)
Kihei	52	79	59	49	54 (-5)	48 (-1)
Lahaina	14	9	17	6	13 (-4)	7 (+1)
Ma’alaea	5	7	5	4	6 (+1)	6 (+2)
Napili/Kahana/Hono…	52	21	43	25	41 (-2)	25
Wailea	28	85	27	89	24 (-3)	91 (+2)
Wailuku	7	8	5	9	4 (-1)	9

Three Noteworthy Things about the End of April Maui Condo Inventory

• The condo market experienced a 9% drop in active listing and a 4% increase in pending listings from the end of March to the End of April.
• The active condo inventory dropped in six price ranges, stayed the same in two and increased by just one in two price ranges. The biggest drop in active inventory occurred in the $750,000-$1,499,999 and $3,000,000 to $5,000,000 price ranges. Pending sales increased in four price ranges, decreased in three and stayed the same in three price ranges. The biggest increases in pending sales occurred between $250,000-$999,999.
• Inventory levels decreased in the majority of the communities around the island. Kahului was unchanged and only Ma’alaea saw an increase with just one new active listing. Lahaina experienced the biggest drop in active listings as a percentage of overall inventory. Pending sales increased in the majority of communities with Kahului seeing the largest overall increase. The Napili/Kahana and Honokowai communities both saw no change in pending sales. Kihei and Kapalua both saw a decrease in pending sales.

What Kind of Competition Are We Seeing for Properties?

In 2021 and the first quarter of 2022, bidding wars were common in the market. We started to see that type of competition wane in the second half of 2022. During the first quarter of the year, I started to see a few more over asking price sales on the MLS. That was particularly true with parts of the vacation rental condo market. Buyers jockeyed for the limited inventory. I thought it was worth looking at competition this April compared to our last couple of “normal” months of April.

While our MLS database does not show whether listings received multiple offers, we can of course see when properties sell for over asking price. I will make the assumption that properties selling for asking price received multiple offers. I will admit, that isn’t a fool proof metric. There are circumstances where a motivated buyer will bid above asking to fend off potential or perceived competition that may or may not appear. I have also seen circumstances with multiple offers that do not exceed asking price.

Looking at April’s sales, 25.45% of all homes sold for over asking price and a total of 46.43% sold for asking price or above. With condos, 20% of the sales closed for over asking price and 47.06% sold for asking price or above. In April of 2019, 13.51% of homes sold for more than asking price and 33.78% sold for asking price or above. For condos in April of 2019, 14.6% sold for over asking price and 42.34% sold for asking price or above. It is pretty striking that the market is that much more competitive than pre-Covid numbers even with substantially lower sales volume.

How Quickly Are New Listings going Under Contract?

I haven’t looked at this metric in a musings since the fall. Back then, a spike in interest rates over 7% caused properties to sit longer. Recently, it seems like more properties went under contract quickly again. Our office’s two newest listings both went under contract within the first few days of coming to market. I thought it was worth seeing if the quantitative numbers matched the anecdotal.

I looked at new listings between May 1st and May 8th. During that period, 25 homes came to market. Forty percent went under contract within 10 days of coming to market. For that same period, 26 condos came to market. Just under thirty-five percent went under contract in ten days or less.

For context, I looked at the same range of dates from 2019. Of the 33 homes that came to market during that time, 18.18% went under contract in ten days or less. Of the 39 condos that came to market, 23.07% went under contract in ten days or less.

Market demand, at least for that particular week of May exceeds what we were seeing during the same period of 2019, our last semi-normal market. I say semi-normal just because that was a year of more limited inventory.

Interest Rate Watch

One advantage of being late to publish, I can tell you that May is on track to be a little busier than I expected. Pending home, condo and land sales on island are at a high for the year. That said, some potential headwinds are growing. As of May 26th, the average interest rate on a 30 year fixed mortgage rose to 7.14%. That’s the highest they’ve been since last November.

When interest rates were this high in the fall, activity slowed in the market. This was particularly true for homes under $1,000,000 and non-vacation rental condos geared towards Maui Residents. If rates stay this high, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a similar impact on the market.

One of the reasons for the recent increase in rates is due to the debt-ceiling standoff. At the time that I am writing this post, it looks there may be a possible solution to the debt ceiling crisis with President Biden and Speaker McCarthy coming to an agreement in principle. Now, that still needs to go to vote on the house floor. In today’s politics, I don’t anything for granted. If the deal is passed, rates may ease back down some. If it doesn’t pass… Yikes.

A Little Maui Beauty to Brighten This Post

A warm moonlit night, palm fronds rustling from a gentle breeze, and an ample porch for you and your friends and family to enjoy it all. Our new Hana Listing offers all of that and more.

Welcome to our 25th edition of the Maui Market Musings. This latest edition focuses on the market activity during March, and the resulting levels of inventory at the end of the month. Being that these are long posts, I will skip the pleasantries and cut straight to the numbers.

March Market Activity

The tables below show new Inventory, new pending sales and closed transactions for the month of March. The previous five years are shown for additional context. One thing to note, we started adding these charts just a few months ago. This is the first time the charts will start capturing data from the very start of when the pandemic started to influence the market. The influence will be particularly pronounced with next month’s charts.

	March 23	March 22	March 21	March 20	March 19	March 18
Homes	70	119	159	88	161	118
Condos	99	188	190	181	157	191

Maui entered the month of March with a shortage of inventory and it left the month of March with even fewer properties for sale. The 70 homes listed is 41% below last year. The closest March for new inventory in the previous five years is March 2020, and there was still 25% more inventory that month. Keep in mind, listing activity for homes dropped to next to nothing in the second half of March 2020 as stay at home orders went out and tourism closed.

The 99 new condos that came on the market in March is 47% below last March. The next closest recent March was in 2019. The 157 condos listed that month is 59% higher than this month. As a side note, March 2020 was a big month for condo listings. While people were reticent to list their homes, many opted to list their now vacant vacation rental condos.

March New Pending Sales

	March 23	March 22	March 21	March 20	March 19	March 18
Homes	70	100	144	60	106	112
Condos	85	169	284	57	149	204

While new listing activity is slow, buyer demand also remains slow. New home pendings came in 30% lower than last year. They are 34% lower than March of 2019. They only exceed March of 2020 when pending sales dwindled to a trickle in the second half of the month. There were also quite a few pending sales that cancelled.

March Closed Transactions

	March 23	March 22	March 21	March 20	March 19	March 18
Homes	72	98	118	82	90	100
Condos	115	183	228	157	152	126

The gap in closed home transactions with the previous five years wasn’t quite as extreme. Home sales were about 27% behind last year. They came in 20% and 28% behind March of 2018 and 2019 respectively. They were closest to March of 2020, albeit some of that is due to transactions that either delayed closing or cancelled at the onset of Covid.

The closed condo sales came in 37% behind March of 22. The gap with pre-covid years was not quite as substantial. This March’s numbers came in 24% and 9% below 2019 and 2018 respectively. That 2018 year was particularly slow for condo sales. It is notable that the March 2023 sales received a boost from 14 new developer closes at Paradise Ridge Estates. These closes came from contracts written between 2018 and February of 2021.

(more…)

This is our 24th installment of the Maui Market Musings. This latest edition looks at market activity and inventory levels as of the end of February. These posts tend to be long so I will keep the intro on the short side. Without further ado, here are the numbers.

February Market Activity

The tables below show new inventory, new pending listings and closed transactions during February with data from the previous five years provided for additional context.

New Inventory

	2/23	2/22	2/21	2/20	2/19	2/18
Homes	68	122	117	119	141	115
Condos	82	178	202	159	161	191

Like most places, inventory remains constrained on Maui. February did not provide much in the way of inventory relief. New home inventory came in 44% lower than February of 2022. It is between 41% and 52% lower than the three Februaries prior to the start of Covid. New condo inventory is 54% lower than February of 2022. It is anywhere between 48% and 57% lower than any of the three months of February between 2018 and 2020.

Pending Sales

	2/23	2/22	2/21	2/20	2/19	2/18
Homes	57	94	133	85	90	83
Condos	79	170	238	127	127	161

While inventory remains low, transaction volume does too. Pending home sales came in 39% lower than last year. The activity in the home market for this February is anywhere between 31% and 37% below the three Februaries between 2018-2020. For the condo market, the drop from last year is more dramatic with 54% fewer pending sales. February 2023 pending condo sales are anywhere between 38% and 51% below the three Februaries prior to Covid.

From time to time, I will hear someone rationalize that low buyer activity is just due to lower inventory. You might be able to make that argument with some segments of the vacation rental condo market. That said, affordability is clearly a significant factor in driving the lower volumes. Prices just haven’t seen significant adjustments since the spike in rates. That’s not to say that there aren’t buyers in this market, it is just a smaller pool.

Closed Transactions

	2/23	2/22	2/21	2/20	2/19	2/18
Homes	38	83	96	80	75	95
Condos	65	157	162	130	119	123

This February’s closed transactions reflect the low pending sales between November and January. For homes, the 38 homes sold is 54% lower than last February. That is between 49% and 60% lower than the three last pre-Covid Februaries. On the condo side, the 65 closed sales is 59% below last year and anywhere between 44% and 50% below any February between 2018 and 2020.

End of February Maui Home Inventory

The charts below show active and pending home sales by price point and community on the last day of the month over the last three months.

	12/31/22		1/31/23		2/28/23
	Active	Pending	Active	Pending	Active	Pending
<$750,000	6	10	10	11	10	7 (-4)
$750,000-$999,999	25	28	21	25	30 (+9)	28 (+3)
$1,000,000-$1,499,999	78	20	71	30	59 (-12)	40 (+10)
$1,500,000-$1,999,999	36	11	33	9	32 (-1)	7 (-2)
$2,000,000-$2,999,999	37	12	42	7	37 (-5)	13 (+3)
$3,000,000-$4,999,999	31	9	32	10	35 (+3)	9 (-1)
$5,000,000-$9,999,999	27	8	27	6	26 (-1)	9 (+3)
$10,000,000-$19,999,999	14	0	16	0	13 (-3)	1 (+1)
$20,000,000+	4	2	5	1	5	1
Total	258	100	257	99	247 (-10)	115 (+16)

	12/31/22		1/31/23		2/28/23
	Active	Pending	Active	Pending	Active	Pending
Haiku	29	7	26	7	27 (+1)	5 (-2)
Hana	10	1	9	1	11 (+2)	1
Ka’anapali	9	3	10	5	10	5
Kahului	16	13	13	11	18 (+5)	8 (-3)
Kapalua	5	3	7	1	6 (-1)	2 (+1)
Kihei	39	7	32	17	29 (-3)	24 (+7)
Kula	21	10	21	11	14 (-7)	14 (+3)
Lahaina	18	11	19	9	16 (-3)	8 (-1)
Makawao	35	4	31	6	27 (-4)	8 (+2)
Napili/Kahana/Hono	13	3	13	1	12 (-1)	2 (+1)
Pukalani	7	3	11	4	7 (-4)	6 (+2)
Sprecks/Paia	9	1	8	1	10 (+2)	0 (-1)
Wailea	13	6	16	3	14 (-2)	7 (+4)
Wailuku	25	25	30	17	35 (+5)	21 (+4)

Three Notable Things About the End of February Maui Home Inventory

• Active home inventory dropped 4% between January 31st and February 28th. Pending sales increased 16%. The new listings in February and the new pending sales in February further up the page provide some context. The decrease in inventory is largely due to new listings coming in way below normal. An increase in pending sales is pretty normal for this time of year, but the rate of increase is well below normal.
• Market activity was something of a mixed bag by price point. The $1,000,000-$1,499,999 saw the biggest increase in pending sales. That is a little bit of a surprise with interest rates increasing again.
• Looking at the inventory at a community level, all of Upcountry saw an increase in pending listings and a decrease in active listings. Kula inventory is particularly low. Kihei also saw a notable increase in pending sales. The resorts were relatively quiet. While Wailea pending sales increased by a few, buyer activity is still below normal for this time of year.

End of February Maui Condo Inventory

The charts below provide end of the month active and pending condo inventory by price point and district. It is worth noting that the Wailea pending sales continue to receive a boost from 75 new developer units under contract in La’i Loa at Wailea Hills. These properties went pending between 2020 and the the first quarter of 2021. Priced from just under $1,500,000 all the way up to over $4,000,000, these long term contracts are also skewing the pending sales upwards in this price range. Paradise Ridge Estates is another new development in Kihei with 18 pending sales based on contracts signed between 2018 and the first quarter of 2022. Eight units in Paradise Ridge Estates closed on March 1st so the impact will be diminished in next month’s numbers.

	12/31/22		1/31/23		2/28/23
	Active	Pending	Active	Pending	Active	Pending
<$250,000	2	2	1	2	2 (+1)	2
$250,000-$499,999	12	16	14	11	16 (+2)	14 (+3)
$500,000-$749,999	38	25	49	31	41 (-8)	42 (+11)
$750,000-$999,999	42	27	39	42	29 (-10)	45 (+3)
$1,000,000-$1,499,999	32	21	29	32	33 (+4)	30 (-2)
$1,500,000-$1,999,999	26	29	30	35	33 (+3)	35
$2,000,000-$2,999,999	18	36	17	40	18 (+1)	41 (+1)
$3,000,000-$4,999,999	10	18	11	17	12 (+1)	17
$5,000,000-$9,999,999	14	0	12	2	13 (+1)	0
$10,000,000+	4	0	4	0	5 (+1)	0
Totals	198	174	206	212	202	226

	12/31/22		1/31/23		2/28/23
	Active	Pending	Active	Pending	Active	Pending
Ka’anapali	22	9	24	12	27 (+3)	6 (-6)
Kahului	4	3	3	4	3	4
Kapalua	12	3	13	6	14 (+1)	5 (-1)
Kihei	61	45	65	72	52 (-13)	79 (+7)
Lahaina	11	12	12	9	14 (+2)	9
Ma’alaea	5	5	5	7	5	7
Napili/Kahana/Honokowai	50	16	50	14	52 (+2)	21 (+7)
Wailea	27	79	26	81	28 (+2)	85 (+4)
Wailuku	4	4	7	6	7	8 (+2)

Three Notable Things from the End of February Condo Inventory

• Active condo listings dipped 2% and pending condo listings increased almost 7% between January 31st and February 28th. Again, the story may be better explained by the numbers for new inventory and new pending sales in February further up this post. It’s expected to see pending sales increase in February. The extent to which they are increasing is well below normal.
• Looking at active and pending sales by price point, the biggest decrease in active listings and the biggest increase in pending listings occurred under $1,000,000. The higher price points were quiet with an increase in listings and only one additional pending over $1,500,000..
• At a district level, Kihei and Napili/Kahana and Honokowai saw the biggest increase in pending sales. This is not too big of a surprise considering the season. This is peak buying season for vacation rental condos. The resorts are surprisingly quiet with Ka’anapali and Kapalua seeing a drop in pending sales. Wailea’s pendings increased modestly after a quiet January.

Some Quick Thoughts

Weird conditions persist. There is still something of a balance in this market that is sustaining prices. As established above, demand is lower, but inventory remains low too. That’s what differentiates Maui from markets on the mainland seeing more significant price decreases. That said, Maui is not monolithic. There are parts of the market where properties are going under contract quickly and others where the days on market are steadily ticking upward.

Buyers searching for vacation rental condos in beach towns like Kihei can expect properties to go under contract relatively quickly. It may not be 2021 or early 2022, but when a 2 bedroom vacation rental in a good complex hits the market, it is safe to say it won’t last more than a few days. It is hard to assess the depth of that buyer pool, but inventory is so incredibly scarce that prices continue to go up in this area due largely to scarcity.

On the other end of the spectrum, the luxury condo market is quiet. Between January 1 and the end of February, only 5 condos went under contract for more than $2,500,000. This is well below 29 during the same period of 2022. It’s worth noting, activity is below pre-Covid levels but the drop off isn’t quite as steep. Slower activity in the luxury market is a national trend. The reasons extend beyond rates.

The home market is also pretty variable. The one real difference with the condo market is that there are no segments of the market that truly feel frothy. Some new listings are going under contract relatively quickly, but it a far cry from the madness of last February.

A Little Maui Beauty to Brighten This Post

This is the 23rd edition of our Maui Market musings. We started this series of posts just over a year ago. Our goal was to try to look at market statistics that provide a better indication of current market conditions. Sales figures can lag behind current market dynamics. We wanted to focus on supply and current demand in what was a more dynamic market. The market slowed quite a bit over the last year, but market conditions are far from straight forward. Keep reading below to learn more about January market activity, active and pending listings and information on sales price vs. list price.

January Market Activity

What type of market did we see in the past month? How many homes and condos came to market, how many went under contract and how many sold? Data from the previous 5 years provides some context.

New Inventory

	January 23	January 22	January 21	January 20	January 19	January 18
Homes	66	117	104	133	135	134
Condos	113	195	197	164	197	215

Looking at the chart above, new inventory is well below normal. Not just compared to the last couple of years but particularly compared to January in the three years prior to the start of the pandemic. New home inventory is almost 44% below last January and over 50% lower than any January between 2018 and 2020. Condo inventory wasn’t off quite as much. It is 42% lower than last year and anywhere between 30% and 47% lower than January of 2018, 2019 and 2020.

Constrained inventory may be a challenge for a while. The low interest rates of the last couple of years have have potential Sellers that might be looking to step up to a larger home or downsize staying put. Other potential sellers are reticent to list with limited replacement inventory available.

Pending Sales

	January 23	January 22	January 21	January 20	January 19	January 18
Homes	54	90	120	89	98	106
Condos	90	177	243	133	153	162

January typically marks the first full month of our winter buying season. This period that runs from Christmas to mid-April coincides with peak visitor season. After a quiet fall, there was some question as to whether we might see a resumption of normal or at least something closer to normal buyer activity as we enter busy season. Thus far, that does not appear to be the case. Pending home sales are off 40% from last year and anywhere between 39% and 49% below January during 2018-2020. Pending condo sales are down 49% from last year and anywhere between 32% and 44% below 2018-2020.

Closed Transactions

	January 23	January 22	January 21	January 20	January 19	January 18
Homes	59	91	94	81	61	83
Condos	52	151	114	124	125	120

The sales numbers are a lagging indicator. For the most part, they tend to reflect contracts agreed upon in November and December. The data above reinforces what we noted in previous editions of our market musings. It was a slow fall, particularly for condo sales.

Home sales are 35% below last year and anywhere between 3% and 29% below January 2018-2020. On the condo front, this January’s sales are a whopping 65% below last year and between 57% and 58% below January 2018, 2019 and 2020.

End of Maui January Home Inventory

The charts below provide end of the month active and pending home inventory by price point and district around Maui.

	11/30/22		12/31/22		1/30/23
	Active	Pending	Active	Pending	Active	Pending
<$750,000	5	14	6	10	10 (+4)	11 (+1)
$750,000-$999,999	31	25	25	28	21 (-4)	25 (-3)
$1,000,000-$1,499,999	61	28	78	20	71 (-7)	30 (+10)
$1,500,000-$1,999,999	28	17	36	11	33 (-3)	9 (-2)
$2,000,000-$2,999,999	34	11	37	12	42 (+5)	7 (-5)
$3,000,000-$4,999,999	32	7	31	9	32 (+1)	10 (+1)
$5,000,000-$9,999,999	23	9	27	8	27	6 (-2)
$10,000,000-$19,999,999	14	0	14	0	16 (+2)	0
$20,000,000+	5	1	4	2	5 (+1)	1 (-1)
Total	233	112	258	100	257 (-1)	99 (-1)

	11/30/22		12/31/22		1/31/23
	Active	Pending	Active	Pending	Active	Pending
Haiku	29	10	29	7	26 (-3)	7
Hana	10	0	10	1	9 (-1)	1
Ka’anapali	9	2	9	3	10 (+1)	5 (+2)
Kahului	16	13	16	13	13 (-3)	11 (-2)
Kapalua	5	3	5	3	7 (+2)	1 (-2)
Kihei	31	15	39	7	32 (-7)	17 (+10)
Kula	22	12	21	10	21	11 (+1)
Lahaina	15	13	18	11	19 (+1)	9 (-2)
Makawao	11	7	35	4	31 (-4)	6 (+2)
Napili/Kahana/Hono	9	3	13	3	13	1 (-2)
Pukalani	10	3	7	3	11 (+4)	4 (+1)
Sprecks/Paia	7	3	9	1	8 (-1)	1
Wailea	16	4	13	6	16 (+3)	3 (-3)
Wailuku	32	19	25	25	30 (+5)	17 (-8)

Three Things to Note About the End of January Home Inventory

• Overall, there was remarkably little change in active and pending sales since the end of December. Island wide there was only one fewer pending listing and one fewer active listing. Have I mentioned that January is usually the start of busy season? This is not the type of month to month shift you would expect with more seasonal activity.
• Drilling down by price point, a little more change is evident. The price ranges between $750,000-$1,500,000 tend to have the highest percentage of financed transactions. That range experienced higher inventory and decreased pendings through much of the fall due to higher rates. With rates lower through much of January, inventory is starting to decrease again. The $1,000,000-$1,500,000 price saw the biggest increase in pending sales of any price point.
• Home buyer activity in the resorts remained quiet. Kapalua and Wailea both saw a decrease in pending sales and a small increase in active inventory. Ka’anapali inventory increased with a couple of additional pending sales reported.

End of January Maui Condo Inventory

The charts below provide end of the month active and pending condo inventory by price point and district. It is worth noting that the Wailea pending sales receive a boost from 75 new developer units reserved in La’i Loa at Wailea Hills. These properties went under contract between 2020 and the the first quarter of 2021. Priced from just under $1,500,000 all the way up to over $4,000,000, these long term contracts are also skewing the also pending sales upwards in this price range. Paradise Ridge Estates is another new development in Kihei with 18 pending sales based on contracts signed between 2018 and the first quarter of 2022.

	11/30/22		12/31/22		1/30/23
	Active	Pending	Active	Pending	Active	Pending
<$250,000	1	4	2	2	1 (-1)	2
$250,000-$499,999	19	14	12	16	14 (+2)	11 (-5)
$500,000-$749,999	43	33	38	25	49 (+11)	31 (+6)
$750,000-$999,999	28	29	42	27	39 (-3)	42 (+15)
$1,000,000-$1,499,999	31	24	32	21	29 (-3)	32 (+11)
$1,500,000-$1,999,999	21	28	26	29	30 (+4)	35 (+6)
$2,000,000-$2,999,999	18	39	18	36	17 (-1)	40 (+4)
$3,000,000-$4,999,999	11	17	10	18	11 (+1)	17 (-1)
$5,000,000-$9,999,999	12	2	14	0	12 (-2)	2 (+2)
$10,000,000+	3	0	4	0	4	0
Totals	187	190	198	174	206 (+8)	212 (+38)

	11/30/22		12/31/22		1/31/23
	Active	Pending	Active	Pending	Active	Pending
Ka’aanapali	25	4	22	9	24 (+2)	12 (+3)
Kahului	5	5	4	3	3 (-1)	4 (+1)
Kapalua	14	2	12	3	13 (+1)	6 (+3)
Kihei	53	61	61	45	65 (+4)	72 (+27)
Lahaina	14	8	11	12	12 (+1)	9 (-3)
Ma’alaea	4	8	5	5	5	7 (+2)
Napili/Kahana/Hono	39	19	50	16	50	14 (-2)
Wailea/Makena	23	85	27	79	26 (-1)	81 (+2)
Wailuku	8	8	4	4	7 (+3)	6 (+2)

Three Things to Note About The End of January Condo Activity

• The end of January condo numbers do show more of a seasonal shift with a 21.83% increase in pending sales over the end of December. It also appears as if more sellers are coming to market with active listings increasing despite the increased pending sales.
• Drilling down by price point, the increase in pending sales is pretty broad based with only two price ranges showing fewer pending sales and two price points unchanged.
• Looking at the districts, Kihei is by far and away the focal point of increased condo sales. Kihei pending sales increased 60% since the end December. Pending sales throughout the rest of the districts were mixed. Notably, Wailea and the other resorts were really quiet as was the Napili, Kahana and Honokowai district.

Interest Rates

One of the bigger takeaways from the home inventory was the increase in buyer activity and decrease in listings in the price ranges with more financed buyers. The decrease in interest rates at the end of last year and to start this year improved affordability bringing buyers back to the market. There were some who thought further decreases in rates could heat up the market again. Well, if you haven’t been tracking rates closely, they are back on the rise again.

Forecasting rates is a fool’s errand at this point. That said, the trajectory of rates will continue to impact the market. Needless to say, higher rates may cool some segments of the market while any substantive decrease in rates could boost demand.

Are Sellers Negotiating?

During the frenzied market of 2021 and the first half of 2022, negotiation became something of a forgotten term on Maui. Sellers were in the driver seat and a significant number of the sales closed for asking price or above. With less buyer activity than last year, how much are sellers willing to negotiate in the current market?

While we don’t have transparency on contract prices with recent pending sales, I looked at closed sales between January 1 and February 15th to get a sense of how much negotiation occurred.

Looking at the home chart, you can see that there still is some competition for homes with 31% of all sales coming in at full asking price and an additional 13% over asking price. That points to the continued impact of low inventory. While there are fewer buyers, the below normal inventory levels mean that there can be competition for quality listings. That said, 18% of buyers are paying anywhere between 5% and 10% below asking price. An additional 15% are paying more 10% below asking price with a handful of those more than 20% below.

Looking at the condo chart, recent sales point to a more competitive market with 18% of recent sales closing for over asking price and 37% for full price. Only 16% of all listings sold for less than 95% of asking price with only 1% less than 90% of asking price. While buyer activity is down, inventory remains limited and some segments of the market are particularly scarce.

Overall, buyers have more latitude to make offers under current market conditions. That said, it really depends on price range and the districts where they are searching. It is also worth noting that a number of the sellers who are negotiating are those that priced above market. At this point, values feel pretty stable and sellers aren’t chasing the market.

A Few Last Thoughts

This musings is being published a little later than usual in the month. That afforded me the opportunity to incorporate sales data from the first 15 days of the month in the section above. While I didn’t delve into this February’s pending data yet, at a surface level the overall number of pending sales continues to increase. They should be rising as this is our peak buying season. The questions is how much are pending sales increasing compared to what is normal during this time of year? Anecdotally, it seems like the resorts are seeing a little more activity than they were in January. It will be interesting to see how the numbers stack up to previous years at the end of the month.

While things are understandably busier than the fall, market conditions remain weird. Decreased demand for this time of year is offset in part by lower inventory. That creates some pockets of the market that remain competitive. That said, there are also a fair number of sellers stuck in the market frenzy mindset. For the most part, those properties are quiet and accumulating days on market.

There are still quite a few sellers hitting surprisingly high prices. That’s part of the weird vibe that permeates the market.

A Little Maui Beauty to Brighten This Post

Contact The Maui Real Estate Team

Questions on this month’s numbers? Thinking about buying or selling property on Maui? Contact the Maui Real Estate Team. We welcome the chance to talk, listen and learn more about your real estate needs. Out experienced group of agents are here to help you guide through the current market’s peculiar conditions.

We are starting off 2023 with volume 22 of our market musings. Early January means that we are in the beginning of what is traditionally our peak real estate season on Maui. This post helps to give a sense of recent market demand and current inventory levels as we enter into what should be the busiest 3-4 months of the year for real estate transactions on island.

December Market Activity

We start things off by taking a look back at December. How many new listings came to market, went under contract and sold? Activity from the five previous Decembers are given for additional context.

	12/22	12/21	12/20	12/19	12/18	12/17
Homes	89	98	115	121	120	140
Condos	76	162	152	143	173	173

New inventory during the month of December was below normal. The number of new listings is anywhere between 25% and 36% lower than what we would anticipate in the pre-Covid Decembers of 2017-2019. This December’s home inventory benefited from an influx of new listings in the Hoku’ula subdivision in Upcountry Maui towards the end of the month. Were it not for those 19 listings, new inventory would be even further below what’s considered normal.

New condo inventory was significantly lower than usual in December. It is anywhere between 47% and 56% below the December new inventory of 2017-2019. Whether it’s the golden handcuffs of low interest rates, the lack of potential replacement properties or just loving their place on Maui, people are holding on to their condos for now.

	12/22	12/21	12/20	12/19	12/18	12/17
Homes	51	69	117	74	75	75
Condos	53	136	139	113	110	108

While new inventory was low, buyer demand also remained low in December. The number of new pending home sales came in at anywhere between 32-33% below what we saw in the three years prior to the start of Covid.

New Pending condo sales came in between 45% and 52% below the activity seen over the years prior to Covid. The slow down in new condo inventory and sales activity is particularly pronounced over the last few months.

	12/22	12/21	12/20	12/19	12/18	12/17
Homes	64	113	106	96	91	89
Condos	67	171	170	125	122	140

The closed transactions in December give us some insight to market demand a little earlier in the fall. Most of these closes came out of contracts agreed to in October and November. Home sales were between 28 and 33% lower than a typical Pre-Covid December. Condo sales in December are between 45 and 53% lower than the three Decembers prior to the start of Covid. Of course, this December’s home and condo sales are way below 2020 and 2021 sales volume.

End of December Maui Inventory

Inventory, or lack thereof, continues to be a significant factor in our market. While new inventory remains low, quieter buyer activity over the last 2-3 months allowed for modest growth in the overall number of properties for sale. That said, we still have a lot less inventory that what was more typical pre-Covid. The charts below provide detail on active and pending listings by price point and community.

End of December Home Inventory

	10/31/2022		11/30/2022		12/31/2022
	Active	Pending	Active	Pending	Active	Pending
<$750,000	9	15	5	14	6 (+1)	10 (-4)
$750,000-$999,999	29	29	31	25	25 (-6)	28 (+3)
$1,000,000-$1,499,999	64	28	61	28	78 (+17)	20 (-8)
$1,500,000-$1,999,999	41	13	28	17	36 (+8)	11 (-6)
$2,000,000-$2,999,999	35	10	34	11	37 (+3)	12 (-1)
$3,000,000-$4,999,999	32	7	32	7	31 (-1)	9 (+2)
$5,000,000-$9,999,999	26	5	23	9	27 (+4)	8 (-1)
$10,000,000-$19,999,999	9	0	14	0	14	0
$20,000,000+	3	1	5	1	4 (-1)	2 (+1)
Totals	248	108	233	112	258 (+25)	100 (-12)

	10/31/2022		11/30/2022		12/31/2022
	Active	Pending	Active	Pending	Active	Pending
Haiku	28	9	29	10	29	7 (-3)
Hana	10	0	10	0	10	1 (+1)
Ka’anapali	7	2	9	2	9	3 (+1)
Kahului	16	16	16	13	16	13
Kapalua	6	0	5	3	5	3
Kihei	40	11	31	15	39 (+8)	7 (-8)
Kula	20	11	22	12	21 (-1)	10 (-2)
Lahaina	22	13	15	13	18 (+3)	11 (-2)
Makawao	13	9	11	7	35 (+24)	4 (-3)
Napili/Kahana/Honokowai	11	6	9	3	13 (+2)	3 (-3)
Pukalani	8	3	10	3	7 (-3)	3
Sprecks/Paia	8	2	7	3	9 (+2)	1 (-2)
Wailea	11	4	16	4	13 (-3)	6 (+2)
Wailuku	40	21	32	19	25 (-7)	25 (+6)

Notable Numbers from the End of December Home Inventory

The information above is provided with the usual framework. The home inventory data by price point includes all of the island of Maui, but excludes the islands of Molokai and Lanai. The district information is limited to the districts and communities with the most activity.

• For the second month in a row, the inventory of active home listings increased on Maui. Active inventory increased 10.7%. A good portion of the bump in inventory can be traced to the 19 new developer listings in the Hoku’ula subdivision.
• Changes in active inventory varied by price point. Five price points increased in inventory, three decreased and one was unchanged. The price range with the biggest increase in inventory was between $1,000,000 and $2,000,000. Again, that was largely due to Hoku’ula. It was notable that the $750,000-$999,999 price range saw the biggest drop in active listings from the month prior. Inventory in that segment increased steadily in the the previous three months. With a higher percentage of financed buyers in this price point, the spike in interest rates earlier in the fall curtailed buyer demand.
• Overall Pending home inventory decreased from the end of November. The number of pending homes dipped 10.71% between November 30th and December 31st.
• By price point, pending sales increased in three price ranges, decreased in five and remained unchanged in three price points. The biggest increase in pending sales occurred in the $750,000-$999,999 range. Perhaps recent decreases in interest rates provided some relief to buyers in that price range. The biggest decrease in pending sales occurred in the $1,000,000-$2,000,000 price range.
• At a community level, inventory trends continued to vary. Inventory increased in 5 communities, decreased in 4 and remained unchanged in 5 districts. The biggest increase by far was in Makawao (the Hoku’ula effect) followed by Kihei. Wailuku inventory decreased the most.
• Pending sales decreased in most communities. Kihei pending sales decreased the most month to month. Wailuku experienced the biggest increase in pending sales.

End of December Maui Condo Inventory

	10/31/2022		11/30/2022		12/31/2022
	Active	Pending	Active	Pending	Active	Pending
<$250,000	2	4	1	4	2 (+1)	2 (-2)
$250,000-$499,999	19	12	19	14	12 (-7)	16 (+2)
$500,000-$749,999	32	35	43	33	38 (-5)	25 (-8)
$750,000-$999,999	27	27	28	29	42 (+14)	27 (-2)
$1,000,000-$1,499,999	21	30	31	24	32 (+1)	21 (-1)
$1,500,000-$1,999,999	14	33	21	28	26 (+5)	29 (+1)
$2,000,000-$2,999,999	15	40	18	39	18	36 (-3)
$3,000,000-$4,999,999	10	17	11	17	10 (-1)	18 (+1)
$5,000,000-$9,999,999	11	1	12	2	14 (+2)	0 (-2)
$10,000,000+	3	1	3	0	4 (+1)	0
Total	154	200	187	190	198 (+11)	174 (-16)

	10/31/2022		11/30/2022		12/31/2022
	Active	Pending	Active	Pending	Active	Pending
Ka’anapali	18	9	25	4	22 (-3)	9 (+5)
Kahului	5	5	5	5	4 (-1)	3 (-2)
Kapalua	12	4	14	2	12 (-2)	3 (+1)
Kihei	43	60	53	61	61 (+8)	45 (-16)
Lahaina	8	4	14	8	11 (-3)	12 (+4)
Ma’alaea	3	6	4	8	5 (+1)	5 (-3)
Napili/Kahana/Honokowai	33	17	39	19	50 (+11)	16 (-3)
Wailea/Makena	19	85	23	85	27 (+4)	79 (-6)
Wailuku	11	10	8	8	4 (-4)	4 (-4)

Notable Numbers from the End of December Condo Inventory

Again, the tables above come with the usual framework for our end of month inventory. The table by price point includes all condos on Maui, but it does not include condos on the islands of Molokai or Lanai. The table with districts is limited to the communities with the most activity.

Pending sales at La’i Loa at Wailea Hills skew the data in Wailea and the $1,500,000-$5,000,000 price ranges. There are 75 pending sales in that development based on contracts penned in 2020 and the first quarter of 2021. Pending sales in La’i Loa won’t start to close until sometime in the fall of 2023. Paradise Ridge Estates in Kihei also skews the data albeit to a lesser extent. There are 18 pending sales with that development based on contracts penned between 2018 and the first quarter of 2022. Overall, 53.44% of the current pending condo inventory is in La’i Loa or Paradise Ridge Estates.

• For the third straight month, end of month inventory of active condo listings grew. It increased 5.88% from the end of November.
• Looking at the inventory by price point, there continues to be a lot of variability. While most price points saw modest changes, the inventory of $250,000-$749,999 condos decreased by a decent margin. The inventory of condos priced between $750,000 and $999,999 increased substantially. There was also a bump in inventory between $1,500,000 and $1,999,999.
• End of the month pending condo sales dropped for the third straight time. Pending sales dropped 8.43%.
• Most price ranges saw a decrease in pending sales by the end of the month. The $500,000-$749,999 price range saw the biggest drop in activity followed by the $2,000,000-$2,999,999 price point.
• At a community level, most locations saw modest changes in inventory. There were exceptions. Kihei and the Napili, Kahana and Honokowai MLS district saw pretty big increases. Ka’anapali and Wailuku both saw notable decreases in inventory.
• Most communities saw a decrease in pending sales by the end of December. Kihei saw the biggest decrease in pending sales. While Wailea’s decrease was smaller, it is notable that the vast majority of the remaining pending sales are longer term contracts at La’i Loa. Only 4 of the 79 pendings in Wailea at the end of the month were condos outside of that development.
• The West Maui communities of Ka’anapali and Lahaina were both notable for their increase in pending condo sales.

How Quickly Are Things Going Under Contract

We started tracking the percentage of properties going under contract in ten days or less all the way back in February. At the time, the market was in a frenzy and 56% of all new listings went under contract within that first ten days of coming to market. We’ve seen things slow considerably since that time. I took a look at properties that came to market between December 13th and December 20th. Of the 35 listings that came to market, 25.71% went under contract within the first ten days. That is actually up from when we last checked in November when only 15.9% of all properties went under contract.

Looking specifically at homes, 20% of the homes listed between December 13 and 20th went under contract within 10 days or less. Last year during the same period, 15.38% of new home listings went under contract in 10 days or less. In 2019, 20% of homes went under contract in 10 days or less.

Of the condos that came to market between December 13th and 20th, 30% went under contract within 10 days. For perspective, 41.51% of all condos listed between December 13-20th, 2021 went under contract in ten days or less. In 2019, 15.22% of condos listed during that same time period went under contract in 10 days or less.

My biggest takeaway from these numbers is that we are well off the frenzy of 2021 and the first quarter of 2022. Response to new listings is closer to what we had pre-Covid. Back then, quality properties priced well tended to go quickly. That continues to be the case today. Unless there is a lot of push back from the readership or we see a clear shift in market conditions, I am going to retire this metric from future musings posts.

Price Reductions

While market activity remained slow in December, it doesn’t seem to be fazing too many sellers. As of December 31st, only 33.33% of all active listings had one or more price reduction. That is down from 37.02% on November 30th and 39.92 on October 31st. It was all the way up at 42.21% in late September.

The condo market is seeing even fewer price reductions. As of New Year’s eve, only 25.25% of all active condo listings were reduced in price one or more times. That is down slightly from 25.53% on November 30th and 29.41% on October 31st.

I surmise that low inventory and seller hopes for a seasonal increase in buyers has led more seller to stick their guns on pricing.

Quick Thoughts On the Market as We Enter Maui Peak Buying Season

Needless to say, the trajectory of the market isn’t entirely clear at the start of buyer’s season. Inventory is up from last winter, but still well below normal. Demand is lower, but it should potentially increase just due to seasonality. Affordability is down significantly from this time last year, but there is still a lot of cash in our market and rates are better than they were earlier in the fall. Add it all together and it makes prognostication a challenge. About the only thing I feel comfortable predicting is continued variability in conditions by price range and by location around the island. We will continue to provide market observations as buyer season progresses on the blog.

A Little Maui Beauty

Contact The Maui Real Estate Team

With the uncertainty in the Maui Real Estate market, quality representation is more important now then ever. Contact the Maui Real Estate Team. Our experienced agents welcome the chance to discuss your real estate needs. We look forward to being of assistance.

It’s that time again. This is the twenty-first edition of the Maui Market Musings. Our weekly, biweekly, monthly update on the Maui Real Estate market. The latest edition looks at active and pending inventory, price reductions and demand for new listings. There are plenty of words down below, so I will spare you from any more up here…

End of November Maui Home Inventory

	9/30/22		10/31/22		11/30/22
	Active	Pending	Active	Pending	Active	Pending
<$750,000	7	14	9	15	5 (-4)	14 (-1)
$750,000-$999,999	21	46	29	29	31 (+2)	25 (-4)
$1,000,000-$1,499,999	45	33	64	28	61 (-3)	28
$1,500,000-$1,999,999	44	17	41	13	28 (-13)	17 (+4)
$2,000,000-$2,999,999	33	12	35	10	34 (-1)	11 (+1)
$3,000,000-$4,999,999	35	11	32	7	32	7
$5,000,000-$9,999,999	27	6	26	5	23 (-3)	9 (+4)
$10,000,000-$19,999,999	11	0	9	0	14 (+5)	0
$20,000,000+	2	1	3	1	5 (+2)	1
Total	225	140	248	108	233 (-15)	112(+4)

	9/30/22		10/31/22		11/30/22
	Active	Pending	Active	Pending	Active	Pending
Haiku	24	7	28	9	29 (+1)	10 (+1)
Hana	9	1	10	0	10	0
Ka’anapali	10	3	7	2	9 (+2)	2
Kahului	7	26	16	16	16	13 (-3)
Kapalua	4	0	6	0	5 (+1)	3 (+3)
Kihei	35	16	40	11	31 (-9)	15 (+4)
Kula	22	11	20	11	22 (+2)	12 (+1)
Lahaina	21	10	22	13	15 (-7)	13
Makawao	13	11	13	9	11 (-2)	7 (-2)
Napili/Kahana/Hono…	9	7	11	6	9 (-2)	3 (-3)
Puklanai	6	7	8	3	10 (+2)	3
Sprecks/Paia	10	4	8	2	7 (-1)	3 (+1)
Wailea	10	8	11	4	16 (+5)	4
Wailuku	36	26	40	21	32 (-8)	19 (-2)

Notable Numbers from the End of November Maui Home Inventory

The information above is provided with the usual framework. The home inventory data by price point includes all of the island of Maui, but excludes the islands of Molokai and Lanai. The district information is limited to the districts and communities with the most activity.

• After an increase in inventory in October, Maui home inventories decreased again in November. Active listings dropped 6.1%.
• Looking at the the active inventory by price point shows a mix of trajectories. While most price ranges decreased, the continued increase between $750,000 and $999,999 is notable. This is a part of the market with more financed buyers. Those buyers are feeling the affordability impact of higher rates. The $10,000,000 plus price range is not known for financed buyers. That said, it also saw an increase.
• Pending sales actually increased between the end of October and the end of November. While the increase was a modest 3.7%, the increase in activity comes as somewhat of a surprise considering both rates and the more significant decrease between late September and late October.
• Broken down by price point, the picture is more mixed. Again, fewer properties went under contract in that $750,000-$999,999 price range. Pending sales increased in the $1,500,000 to $3,000,000 range. The biggest percentage increase in pending sales was in the $5,000,000 to $9,999,999 price range.
• At a community level, inventory trends were all over the place. Kihei, Lahaina and Wailuku all experienced notable decreases in inventory. Most other markets experienced modest changes with increases or decreases of a couple of homes. The Wailea active inventory increased the most month to month.
• There was also a lot of variability in the end of month change in pending sales by community. Pending sales increased in five communities, remained unchanged in five districts, and decreased in four. Kapalua and Kihei saw the biggest increase in pendings. Kahului and the Napili, Kahana, Honokowai area decreased the most.

End of November Maui Condo Inventory

	9/30/22		10/31/22		11/30/22
	Active	Pending	Active	Pending	Active	Pending
<$250,000	1	3	2	4	1 (-1)	4
$250,000-$499,999	11	16	19	12	19	14 (+2)
$500,000-$749,999	28	40	32	35	43 (+11)	33 (-2)
$750,000-$999,999	33	33	27	27	28 (+1)	29 (+2)
$1,000,000-$1,499,999	19	36	21	30	31 (+10)	24 (-6)
$1,500,000-$1,999,000	18	34	14	33	21 (+7)	28 (-5)
$2,000,000-$2,999,999	14	43	15	40	18 (+3)	39 (-1)
$3,000,000-$5,000,000	10	17	10	17	11 (+1)	17
$5,000,000-$9,999,999	7	0	11	1	12 (+1)	2 (+1)
$10,000,000+	4	0	3	1	3	0
Total	145	222	154	200	187 (+33)	190 (-10)

	9/30/22		10/31/22		11/30/22
	Active	Pending	Active	Pending	Active	Pending
Ka’anapali	17	14	18	9	25 (+7)	4 (-5)
Kahului	3	4	5	5	5	5
Kapalua	10	4	12	4	14 (+2)	2 (-2)
Kihei	48	61	43	60	53 (+10)	51 (-9)
Lahania	5	7	8	4	14 (+6)	8 (+4)
Ma’alaea	4	4	3	6	4 (+1)	8 (+2)
Napili/Kahana/Hono…	29	30	33	17	39 (+6)	19 (+2)
Wailea	19	86	19	85	23 (+4)	85
Wailuku	8	12	11	10	8 (-3)	8 (-2)

Notable Numbers from the End of November Maui Condo Inventory

Again, the tables above come with the usual framework for our end of month inventory. The table by price point includes all condos on Maui, but it does not include condos on the islands of Molokai or Lanai. The table with districts is limited to the communities with the most activity.

Pending sales at La’i Loa at Wailea Hills skew the data in Wailea and the $1,500,000-$5,000,000 price ranges. There are 75 pending sales in that development based on contracts penned in 2020 and the first quarter of 2021. Pending sales in La’i Loa won’t start to close until sometime in 2023. Paradise Ridge Estates in Kihei also skews the data albeit to a lesser extent. There are 18 pending sales with that development based on contracts penned between 2018 and the first quarter of 2022. Overall, 49.73% of the pending condo inventory is in La’i Loa or Paradise Ridge Estates.

• End of month condo inventory increased for the second straight month. Active inventory grew by 21.42%.
• Seven out of ten price ranges increased inventory between the end of October and the end of November. Two price ranges remained constant and only condos priced below $250,000 decreased in active inventory.
• The largest increases in active inventory occurred between $500,000-$749,999 and $1,000,000 to $1,999,999.
• Pending sales dipped 5% between the end of October and the end of November. Pendings in four price points decreased, increased in three and remained unchanged in three.
• The biggest decrease in pending sales occurred between $1,000,000 and $1,999,999.
• Active inventory increased in all but two communities. Only Wailuku saw a decrease while Kahului inventory remained unchanged. Kihei increased the most by the number of units and Lahaina increased the most by percentage.
• Pending sales increased the most in Lahaina. Kihei pending sales decreased the most.

Pending Sales vs. New Listings

With the shift in active and pending sales, it is worth taking a look at what’s driving inventory levels. How did November stack up against other years for new listings and new pending sales?

	11/2022	11/2021	11/2019	11/2018	11/2017
Homes	79	114	125	147	140
Condos	109	187	208	153	193

Looking at new inventory in November, you can see that we are well below last year. For homes, there were just over 30% fewer listings than last November. More notably, last month’s new inventory was anywhere between 39% and 46% less than what came to market in November of 2017-2019. The decrease in new condo inventory entering the market in November is even more pronounced. There were roughly 42% less condo listings last month compared to November 2021. New inventory came in anywhere between 53% and 56% lower than Novembers 2017 and 2019. The one outlier being November of 2018. Even that year had 40% more new listings than this year.

	11/2022	11/2021	11/2019	11/2018	11/2017
Homes	63	95	90	80	83
Condos	69	180	147	110	125

While inventory remains low, the number of properties going under contract decreased significantly from last November and the Pre-Covid Novembers Prior. New pending home sales this November are almost 34% lower than last November. They are down between 21 and 30% compared to the Novembers between 2017 and 2019. Again, the difference in the condo market is a little more dramatic. New Pending sales from November 22 are almost 62% less than November of 21. This November’s new pending sales are between 37% and 53% lower than November 2017-2019.

Looking at the numbers above, inventory clearly remains low. Pending sales are also down quite a bit. While some of the decrease in pending sales may be attributed to the limited inventory, decreased demand is the bigger driver for the decrease in activity. The weight of decreased affordability impacts a number of buyers.

How Quickly Are Things Going Under Contract?

Another metric we use to track the market is the speed at which properties are going under contract. Specifically, what percentage of new listings are going under contract in 10 days or less. We started tracking that number in mid February during the peak of last winter’s frenzy. At the time, 56% of all new listings went under contract in ten days or less. Prior to this post, the last time I checked this metric was for the period between October 11th and October 18th. At that time, 25.58% of properties listed during that span went under contract in ten days or less. Between November 21st and November 28th, 15.9% of all properties went into escrow within that ten day span.

Of the single family homes that came to market between November 21st and November 28th, 13.64% went under contract in ten days or less. For context, 36% of homes listed between November 21st and November 28th, 2021 went under contract in ten days or less. Of the homes listed between November 21 and November 28th, 2018, only 4.17% of the properties went under contract in ten days or less.

Of the condos listed between November 21st and November 28th, 18.18% sold in 10 days or less. Last year, 43.24% of condos listed in that period sold for 10 days or less. Pre-covid, 29.26% of condos listed between November 21st and November 28th sold in ten days or less.

Overall, this is the most tepid response new listings received since we started tracking this data point. While the slower market activity could be a function of the Thanksgiving Holiday, the 2021 and 2019 numbers both remained busy despite Thanksgiving.

Price Reductions

A lot of sellers don’t seem to be fretting the smaller numbers of buyers on the market. That is evident in the recent numbers on price reductions in the active inventory. On November 30th, 37.02% of all active home listings reduced their price one or more times. That is down from 39.92% on October 31st and 42.41% on September 29th. While the percentage of homes with price reductions started to tick down nationally in the last couple of weeks of November, the percentage of price reductions started declining in early September on Maui.

On November 30th, 23.53% of all active condo listings reduced their price at least once since being listed. That number was 29.41% on October 31st. It was 25% on September 29th. It’s interesting to see that price reductions are down considering the decreased condo sales activity over the last month. Low inventory and the start of peak winter home buying season at the end of the month is emboldening sellers.

Quick Thoughts on the State of the market.

Weird. My one word summary for the current Maui Real Estate market. Some parts of the market continue to push to all time record highs, other parts are stalled, while other segments of the market are seeing modest price declines. Supply (or lack thereof) and affordability (particularly when you take into account borrowing costs) push and pull the market in different trajectories.

We’ve already looked at the fluctuations in active listings by price point and community in this post. It might be worth zooming out and looking at those same numbers island wide since late Spring.

While active listings fluctuated over the last five months, the end of November supply for homes and condos is lower than it was at the end of June. Demand, reflected in pending listings, fell steadily downward over that time. While the data in this post shows that demand is far less than a normal market, we still have constrained supply. Demand fell enough to cool market conditions, but supply remains limited enough to prevent across the board decreases in value. Variability in market conditions on island ultimately comes down to the balance between supply and demand at the community level and at different price points. The price points that are decreasing in value appear to be those that have more financed buyers. The places that continue to see record highs have extremely limited inventory and a high percentage of cash buyers.

A Little Maui Beauty To Brighten Your Day

A beautiful sunrise taken from the beach in Wailea.

Witnessed a stunning sunrise from Wailea, Maui.✨ pic.twitter.com/4yRU7pndYl

— HAWAI'I Magazine (@HAWAIIMagazine) December 8, 2022

Contact The Maui Real Estate Team

Navigating the weird market conditions demands quality representation. Market strategies for buyers and sellers vary by price and location. Contact The Maui Real Estate Team to discuss market conditions specific to your budget and areas of interest. Our savvy and experienced agents look forward to being of assistance.