Maui Real Estate Blog

Maui Market Musings Volume XXII

We are starting off 2023 with volume 22 of our market musings. Early January means that we are in the beginning of what is traditionally our peak real estate season on Maui. This post helps to give a sense of recent market demand and current inventory levels as we enter into what should be the busiest 3-4 months of the year for real estate transactions on island.

December Market Activity

We start things off by taking a look back at December. How many new listings came to market, went under contract and sold? Activity from the five previous Decembers are given for additional context.

12/2212/2112/2012/1912/1812/17
Homes8998115121120140
Condos76162152143173173
New Inventory during the month of December over the last six years

New inventory during the month of December was below normal. The number of new listings is anywhere between 25% and 36% lower than what we would anticipate in the pre-Covid Decembers of 2017-2019. This December’s home inventory benefited from an influx of new listings in the Hoku’ula subdivision in Upcountry Maui towards the end of the month. Were it not for those 19 listings, new inventory would be even further below what’s considered normal.

New condo inventory was significantly lower than usual in December. It is anywhere between 47% and 56% below the December new inventory of 2017-2019. Whether it’s the golden handcuffs of low interest rates, the lack of potential replacement properties or just loving their place on Maui, people are holding on to their condos for now.

12/2212/2112/2012/1912/1812/17
Homes5169117747575
Condos53136139113110108
Monthly New Pending Sales in December

While new inventory was low, buyer demand also remained low in December. The number of new pending home sales came in at anywhere between 32-33% below what we saw in the three years prior to the start of Covid.

New Pending condo sales came in between 45% and 52% below the activity seen over the years prior to Covid. The slow down in new condo inventory and sales activity is particularly pronounced over the last few months.

12/2212/2112/2012/1912/1812/17
Homes64113106969189
Condos67171170125122140
Monthly Closed Transactions in December

The closed transactions in December give us some insight to market demand a little earlier in the fall. Most of these closes came out of contracts agreed to in October and November. Home sales were between 28 and 33% lower than a typical Pre-Covid December. Condo sales in December are between 45 and 53% lower than the three Decembers prior to the start of Covid. Of course, this December’s home and condo sales are way below 2020 and 2021 sales volume.

End of December Maui Inventory

Inventory, or lack thereof, continues to be a significant factor in our market. While new inventory remains low, quieter buyer activity over the last 2-3 months allowed for modest growth in the overall number of properties for sale. That said, we still have a lot less inventory that what was more typical pre-Covid. The charts below provide detail on active and pending listings by price point and community.

End of December Home Inventory

10/31/202211/30/202212/31/2022
ActivePendingActivePendingActivePending
<$750,0009155146 (+1)10 (-4)
$750,000-$999,9992929312525 (-6)28 (+3)
$1,000,000-$1,499,9996428612878 (+17)20 (-8)
$1,500,000-$1,999,9994113281736 (+8)11 (-6)
$2,000,000-$2,999,9993510341137 (+3)12 (-1)
$3,000,000-$4,999,99932732731 (-1)9 (+2)
$5,000,000-$9,999,99926523927 (+4)8 (-1)
$10,000,000-$19,999,99990140140
$20,000,000+31514 (-1)2 (+1)
Totals248108233112258 (+25)100 (-12)
Maui active and pending home listings by price point on the last day of the month from October, November and December
10/31/202211/30/202212/31/2022
ActivePendingActive PendingActivePending
Haiku2892910297 (-3)
Hana100100101 (+1)
Ka’anapali729293 (+1)
Kahului161616131613
Kapalua605353
Kihei4011311539 (+8)7 (-8)
Kula2011221221 (-1)10 (-2)
Lahaina2213151318 (+3)11 (-2)
Makawao13911735 (+24)4 (-3)
Napili/Kahana/Honokowai1169313 (+2)3 (-3)
Pukalani831037 (-3)3
Sprecks/Paia82739 (+2)1 (-2)
Wailea11416413 (-3)6 (+2)
Wailuku4021321925 (-7)25 (+6)
A comparison of active and pending home listings by district for the last days of the month from October-December 2022. It does not include all communities on Maui.

Notable Numbers from the End of December Home Inventory

The information above is provided with the usual framework. The home inventory data by price point includes all of the island of Maui, but excludes the islands of Molokai and Lanai. The district information is limited to the districts and communities with the most activity.

  • For the second month in a row, the inventory of active home listings increased on Maui. Active inventory increased 10.7%. A good portion of the bump in inventory can be traced to the 19 new developer listings in the Hoku’ula subdivision.
  • Changes in active inventory varied by price point. Five price points increased in inventory, three decreased and one was unchanged. The price range with the biggest increase in inventory was between $1,000,000 and $2,000,000. Again, that was largely due to Hoku’ula. It was notable that the $750,000-$999,999 price range saw the biggest drop in active listings from the month prior. Inventory in that segment increased steadily in the the previous three months. With a higher percentage of financed buyers in this price point, the spike in interest rates earlier in the fall curtailed buyer demand.
  • Overall Pending home inventory decreased from the end of November. The number of pending homes dipped 10.71% between November 30th and December 31st.
  • By price point, pending sales increased in three price ranges, decreased in five and remained unchanged in three price points. The biggest increase in pending sales occurred in the $750,000-$999,999 range. Perhaps recent decreases in interest rates provided some relief to buyers in that price range. The biggest decrease in pending sales occurred in the $1,000,000-$2,000,000 price range.
  • At a community level, inventory trends continued to vary. Inventory increased in 5 communities, decreased in 4 and remained unchanged in 5 districts. The biggest increase by far was in Makawao (the Hoku’ula effect) followed by Kihei. Wailuku inventory decreased the most.
  • Pending sales decreased in most communities. Kihei pending sales decreased the most month to month. Wailuku experienced the biggest increase in pending sales.

End of December Maui Condo Inventory

10/31/202211/30/202212/31/2022
ActivePendingActivePendingActivePending
<$250,00024142 (+1)2 (-2)
$250,000-$499,9991912191412 (-7)16 (+2)
$500,000-$749,9993235433338 (-5)25 (-8)
$750,000-$999,9992727282942 (+14)27 (-2)
$1,000,000-$1,499,9992130312432 (+1)21 (-1)
$1,500,000-$1,999,9991433212826 (+5)29 (+1)
$2,000,000-$2,999,9991540183918 36 (-3)
$3,000,000-$4,999,9991017111710 (-1)18 (+1)
$5,000,000-$9,999,99911112214 (+2)0 (-2)
$10,000,000+31304 (+1)0
Total154200187190198 (+11)174 (-16)
A comparison of end of the month active and pending condo sales by price point from October through December of 2022.
10/31/202211/30/202212/31/2022
ActivePendingActivePendingActive Pending
Ka’anapali18925422 (-3)9 (+5)
Kahului55554 (-1)3 (-2)
Kapalua12414212 (-2)3 (+1)
Kihei4360536161 (+8)45 (-16)
Lahaina8414811 (-3)12 (+4)
Ma’alaea36485 (+1)5 (-3)
Napili/Kahana/Honokowai3317391950 (+11) 16 (-3)
Wailea/Makena1985238527 (+4)79 (-6)
Wailuku1110884 (-4)4 (-4)
Active and Pending Condo inventory by district in Maui during September-November of 2022. This does not include all districts.

Notable Numbers from the End of December Condo Inventory

Again, the tables above come with the usual framework for our end of month inventory. The table by price point includes all condos on Maui, but it does not include condos on the islands of Molokai or Lanai. The table with districts is limited to the communities with the most activity.

Pending sales at La’i Loa at Wailea Hills skew the data in Wailea and the $1,500,000-$5,000,000 price ranges. There are 75 pending sales in that development based on contracts penned in 2020 and the first quarter of 2021. Pending sales in La’i Loa won’t start to close until sometime in the fall of 2023. Paradise Ridge Estates in Kihei also skews the data albeit to a lesser extent. There are 18 pending sales with that development based on contracts penned between 2018 and the first quarter of 2022. Overall, 53.44% of the current pending condo inventory is in La’i Loa or Paradise Ridge Estates.

  • For the third straight month, end of month inventory of active condo listings grew. It increased 5.88% from the end of November.
  • Looking at the inventory by price point, there continues to be a lot of variability. While most price points saw modest changes, the inventory of $250,000-$749,999 condos decreased by a decent margin. The inventory of condos priced between $750,000 and $999,999 increased substantially. There was also a bump in inventory between $1,500,000 and $1,999,999.
  • End of the month pending condo sales dropped for the third straight time. Pending sales dropped 8.43%.
  • Most price ranges saw a decrease in pending sales by the end of the month. The $500,000-$749,999 price range saw the biggest drop in activity followed by the $2,000,000-$2,999,999 price point.
  • At a community level, most locations saw modest changes in inventory. There were exceptions. Kihei and the Napili, Kahana and Honokowai MLS district saw pretty big increases. Ka’anapali and Wailuku both saw notable decreases in inventory.
  • Most communities saw a decrease in pending sales by the end of December. Kihei saw the biggest decrease in pending sales. While Wailea’s decrease was smaller, it is notable that the vast majority of the remaining pending sales are longer term contracts at La’i Loa. Only 4 of the 79 pendings in Wailea at the end of the month were condos outside of that development.
  • The West Maui communities of Ka’anapali and Lahaina were both notable for their increase in pending condo sales.

How Quickly Are Things Going Under Contract

We started tracking the percentage of properties going under contract in ten days or less all the way back in February. At the time, the market was in a frenzy and 56% of all new listings went under contract within that first ten days of coming to market. We’ve seen things slow considerably since that time. I took a look at properties that came to market between December 13th and December 20th. Of the 35 listings that came to market, 25.71% went under contract within the first ten days. That is actually up from when we last checked in November when only 15.9% of all properties went under contract.

Looking specifically at homes, 20% of the homes listed between December 13 and 20th went under contract within 10 days or less. Last year during the same period, 15.38% of new home listings went under contract in 10 days or less. In 2019, 20% of homes went under contract in 10 days or less.

Of the condos that came to market between December 13th and 20th, 30% went under contract within 10 days. For perspective, 41.51% of all condos listed between December 13-20th, 2021 went under contract in ten days or less. In 2019, 15.22% of condos listed during that same time period went under contract in 10 days or less.

My biggest takeaway from these numbers is that we are well off the frenzy of 2021 and the first quarter of 2022. Response to new listings is closer to what we had pre-Covid. Back then, quality properties priced well tended to go quickly. That continues to be the case today. Unless there is a lot of push back from the readership or we see a clear shift in market conditions, I am going to retire this metric from future musings posts.

Price Reductions

While market activity remained slow in December, it doesn’t seem to be fazing too many sellers. As of December 31st, only 33.33% of all active listings had one or more price reduction. That is down from 37.02% on November 30th and 39.92 on October 31st. It was all the way up at 42.21% in late September.

The condo market is seeing even fewer price reductions. As of New Year’s eve, only 25.25% of all active condo listings were reduced in price one or more times. That is down slightly from 25.53% on November 30th and 29.41% on October 31st.

I surmise that low inventory and seller hopes for a seasonal increase in buyers has led more seller to stick their guns on pricing.

Quick Thoughts On the Market as We Enter Maui Peak Buying Season

Needless to say, the trajectory of the market isn’t entirely clear at the start of buyer’s season. Inventory is up from last winter, but still well below normal. Demand is lower, but it should potentially increase just due to seasonality. Affordability is down significantly from this time last year, but there is still a lot of cash in our market and rates are better than they were earlier in the fall. Add it all together and it makes prognostication a challenge. About the only thing I feel comfortable predicting is continued variability in conditions by price range and by location around the island. We will continue to provide market observations as buyer season progresses on the blog.

A Little Maui Beauty

Contact The Maui Real Estate Team

With the uncertainty in the Maui Real Estate market, quality representation is more important now then ever. Contact the Maui Real Estate Team. Our experienced agents welcome the chance to discuss your real estate needs. We look forward to being of assistance.

Pete Jalbert

Maui Real Estate Blog

Maui Market Musings XXI

It’s that time again. This is the twenty-first edition of the Maui Market Musings. Our weekly, biweekly, monthly update on the Maui Real Estate market. The latest edition looks at active and pending inventory, price reductions and demand for new listings. There are plenty of words down below, so I will spare you from any more up here…

End of November Maui Home Inventory

9/30/2210/31/2211/30/22
ActivePendingActive PendingActive Pending
<$750,0007149155 (-4)14 (-1)
$750,000-$999,9992146292931 (+2)25 (-4)
$1,000,000-$1,499,9994533642861 (-3)28
$1,500,000-$1,999,99944 17411328 (-13)17 (+4)
$2,000,000-$2,999,9993312351034 (-1)11 (+1)
$3,000,000-$4,999,999351132732 7
$5,000,000-$9,999,99927626523 (-3)9 (+4)
$10,000,000-$19,999,9991109014 (+5)0
$20,000,000+21315 (+2)1
Total225140248108233 (-15)112(+4)
Maui active and pending home listings by price point on the last day of the month from September, October and November 2022
9/30/2210/31/2211/30/22
ActivePendingActivePendingActivePending
Haiku24728929 (+1)10 (+1)
Hana91100100
Ka’anapali103729 (+2)2
Kahului72616161613 (-3)
Kapalua40605 (+1)3 (+3)
Kihei3516401131 (-9)15 (+4)
Kula2211201122 (+2)12 (+1)
Lahaina2110221315 (-7)13
Makawao131113911 (-2)7 (-2)
Napili/Kahana/Hono…971169 (-2)3 (-3)
Puklanai678310 (+2)3
Sprecks/Paia104827 (-1)3 (+1)
Wailea10811416 (+5)4
Wailuku3626402132 (-8) 19 (-2)
A comparison of active and pending home listings by community for the last days of the month from September-November 2022. It does not include all communities on Maui.

Notable Numbers from the End of November Maui Home Inventory

The information above is provided with the usual framework. The home inventory data by price point includes all of the island of Maui, but excludes the islands of Molokai and Lanai. The district information is limited to the districts and communities with the most activity.

  • After an increase in inventory in October, Maui home inventories decreased again in November. Active listings dropped 6.1%.
  • Looking at the the active inventory by price point shows a mix of trajectories. While most price ranges decreased, the continued increase between $750,000 and $999,999 is notable. This is a part of the market with more financed buyers. Those buyers are feeling the affordability impact of higher rates. The $10,000,000 plus price range is not known for financed buyers. That said, it also saw an increase.
  • Pending sales actually increased between the end of October and the end of November. While the increase was a modest 3.7%, the increase in activity comes as somewhat of a surprise considering both rates and the more significant decrease between late September and late October.
  • Broken down by price point, the picture is more mixed. Again, fewer properties went under contract in that $750,000-$999,999 price range. Pending sales increased in the $1,500,000 to $3,000,000 range. The biggest percentage increase in pending sales was in the $5,000,000 to $9,999,999 price range.
  • At a community level, inventory trends were all over the place. Kihei, Lahaina and Wailuku all experienced notable decreases in inventory. Most other markets experienced modest changes with increases or decreases of a couple of homes. The Wailea active inventory increased the most month to month.
  • There was also a lot of variability in the end of month change in pending sales by community. Pending sales increased in five communities, remained unchanged in five districts, and decreased in four. Kapalua and Kihei saw the biggest increase in pendings. Kahului and the Napili, Kahana, Honokowai area decreased the most.

End of November Maui Condo Inventory

9/30/2210/31/2211/30/22
ActivePendingActivePendingActivePending
<$250,00013241 (-1)4
$250,000-$499,999111619121914 (+2)
$500,000-$749,9992840323543 (+11)33 (-2)
$750,000-$999,9993333272728 (+1)29 (+2)
$1,000,000-$1,499,9991936213031 (+10)24 (-6)
$1,500,000-$1,999,0001834143321 (+7)28 (-5)
$2,000,000-$2,999,9991443154018 (+3)39 (-1)
$3,000,000-$5,000,0001017101711 (+1)17
$5,000,000-$9,999,9997011112 (+1)2 (+1)
$10,000,000+403130
Total145222154200187 (+33)190 (-10)
A comparison of end of the month active and pending condo sales by price point from September through November of 2022.
9/30/2210/31/2211/30/22
ActivePendingActivePendingActivePending
Ka’anapali171418925 (+7)4 (-5)
Kahului345555
Kapalua10412414 (+2)2 (-2)
Kihei4861436053 (+10)51 (-9)
Lahania578414 (+6)8 (+4)
Ma’alaea44364 (+1) 8 (+2)
Napili/Kahana/Hono…2930331739 (+6)19 (+2)
Wailea1986198523 (+4)85
Wailuku81211108 (-3)8 (-2)
Active and Pending Condo inventory by district in Maui during September-November of 2022. This does not include all districts.

Notable Numbers from the End of November Maui Condo Inventory

Again, the tables above come with the usual framework for our end of month inventory. The table by price point includes all condos on Maui, but it does not include condos on the islands of Molokai or Lanai. The table with districts is limited to the communities with the most activity.

Pending sales at La’i Loa at Wailea Hills skew the data in Wailea and the $1,500,000-$5,000,000 price ranges. There are 75 pending sales in that development based on contracts penned in 2020 and the first quarter of 2021. Pending sales in La’i Loa won’t start to close until sometime in 2023. Paradise Ridge Estates in Kihei also skews the data albeit to a lesser extent. There are 18 pending sales with that development based on contracts penned between 2018 and the first quarter of 2022. Overall, 49.73% of the pending condo inventory is in La’i Loa or Paradise Ridge Estates.

  • End of month condo inventory increased for the second straight month. Active inventory grew by 21.42%.
  • Seven out of ten price ranges increased inventory between the end of October and the end of November. Two price ranges remained constant and only condos priced below $250,000 decreased in active inventory.
  • The largest increases in active inventory occurred between $500,000-$749,999 and $1,000,000 to $1,999,999.
  • Pending sales dipped 5% between the end of October and the end of November. Pendings in four price points decreased, increased in three and remained unchanged in three.
  • The biggest decrease in pending sales occurred between $1,000,000 and $1,999,999.
  • Active inventory increased in all but two communities. Only Wailuku saw a decrease while Kahului inventory remained unchanged. Kihei increased the most by the number of units and Lahaina increased the most by percentage.
  • Pending sales increased the most in Lahaina. Kihei pending sales decreased the most.

Pending Sales vs. New Listings

With the shift in active and pending sales, it is worth taking a look at what’s driving inventory levels. How did November stack up against other years for new listings and new pending sales?

11/202211/202111/201911/201811/2017
Homes79114125147140
Condos109187208153193
New Inventory During the Month of November in 2022, 2021, 2019, 2018 and 2017.

Looking at new inventory in November, you can see that we are well below last year. For homes, there were just over 30% fewer listings than last November. More notably, last month’s new inventory was anywhere between 39% and 46% less than what came to market in November of 2017-2019. The decrease in new condo inventory entering the market in November is even more pronounced. There were roughly 42% less condo listings last month compared to November 2021. New inventory came in anywhere between 53% and 56% lower than Novembers 2017 and 2019. The one outlier being November of 2018. Even that year had 40% more new listings than this year.

11/202211/202111/201911/201811/2017
Homes6395908083
Condos69 180147110125
Monthly new pending sales in the month of November during 2022, 2021, 2019, 2018 and 2017.

While inventory remains low, the number of properties going under contract decreased significantly from last November and the Pre-Covid Novembers Prior. New pending home sales this November are almost 34% lower than last November. They are down between 21 and 30% compared to the Novembers between 2017 and 2019. Again, the difference in the condo market is a little more dramatic. New Pending sales from November 22 are almost 62% less than November of 21. This November’s new pending sales are between 37% and 53% lower than November 2017-2019.

Looking at the numbers above, inventory clearly remains low. Pending sales are also down quite a bit. While some of the decrease in pending sales may be attributed to the limited inventory, decreased demand is the bigger driver for the decrease in activity. The weight of decreased affordability impacts a number of buyers.

How Quickly Are Things Going Under Contract?

Another metric we use to track the market is the speed at which properties are going under contract. Specifically, what percentage of new listings are going under contract in 10 days or less. We started tracking that number in mid February during the peak of last winter’s frenzy. At the time, 56% of all new listings went under contract in ten days or less. Prior to this post, the last time I checked this metric was for the period between October 11th and October 18th. At that time, 25.58% of properties listed during that span went under contract in ten days or less. Between November 21st and November 28th, 15.9% of all properties went into escrow within that ten day span.

Of the single family homes that came to market between November 21st and November 28th, 13.64% went under contract in ten days or less. For context, 36% of homes listed between November 21st and November 28th, 2021 went under contract in ten days or less. Of the homes listed between November 21 and November 28th, 2018, only 4.17% of the properties went under contract in ten days or less.

Of the condos listed between November 21st and November 28th, 18.18% sold in 10 days or less. Last year, 43.24% of condos listed in that period sold for 10 days or less. Pre-covid, 29.26% of condos listed between November 21st and November 28th sold in ten days or less.

Overall, this is the most tepid response new listings received since we started tracking this data point. While the slower market activity could be a function of the Thanksgiving Holiday, the 2021 and 2019 numbers both remained busy despite Thanksgiving.

Price Reductions

A lot of sellers don’t seem to be fretting the smaller numbers of buyers on the market. That is evident in the recent numbers on price reductions in the active inventory. On November 30th, 37.02% of all active home listings reduced their price one or more times. That is down from 39.92% on October 31st and 42.41% on September 29th. While the percentage of homes with price reductions started to tick down nationally in the last couple of weeks of November, the percentage of price reductions started declining in early September on Maui.

On November 30th, 23.53% of all active condo listings reduced their price at least once since being listed. That number was 29.41% on October 31st. It was 25% on September 29th. It’s interesting to see that price reductions are down considering the decreased condo sales activity over the last month. Low inventory and the start of peak winter home buying season at the end of the month is emboldening sellers.

Quick Thoughts on the State of the market.

Weird. My one word summary for the current Maui Real Estate market. Some parts of the market continue to push to all time record highs, other parts are stalled, while other segments of the market are seeing modest price declines. Supply (or lack thereof) and affordability (particularly when you take into account borrowing costs) push and pull the market in different trajectories.

We’ve already looked at the fluctuations in active listings by price point and community in this post. It might be worth zooming out and looking at those same numbers island wide since late Spring.

End of the month home inventory in Maui from May - November 2022
Maui end of the month home inventory from May through November 2022
End of the month condo inventory
The end of the month condo inventory in Maui between May and November

While active listings fluctuated over the last five months, the end of November supply for homes and condos is lower than it was at the end of June. Demand, reflected in pending listings, fell steadily downward over that time. While the data in this post shows that demand is far less than a normal market, we still have constrained supply. Demand fell enough to cool market conditions, but supply remains limited enough to prevent across the board decreases in value. Variability in market conditions on island ultimately comes down to the balance between supply and demand at the community level and at different price points. The price points that are decreasing in value appear to be those that have more financed buyers. The places that continue to see record highs have extremely limited inventory and a high percentage of cash buyers.

A Little Maui Beauty To Brighten Your Day

A beautiful sunrise taken from the beach in Wailea.

Contact The Maui Real Estate Team

Navigating the weird market conditions demands quality representation. Market strategies for buyers and sellers vary by price and location. Contact The Maui Real Estate Team to discuss market conditions specific to your budget and areas of interest. Our savvy and experienced agents look forward to being of assistance.

Pete Jalbert

Maui Real Estate Blog

Maui Market Musings Volume XX

Well, we made it to our twentieth Market Musings. This post took me a while to put together. I want to say it’s because it is chock full of tremendous insight. The truth is my last 9-10 days consisted primarily of battling Covid. My symptoms made writing this post a protracted slog. Give me some grace if there are typos and/or a few not so coherent thoughts interspersed throughout the text.

In our last post, I talked about the relative resilience of the Maui market under higher rates. Since that time, rates rose even more. The additional bump in rates or perhaps just a longer duration of time with higher rates is weighing on the Maui market. The single family home market in particular is feeling the burden of higher rates and decreased affordability. Musings 20 takes a look at some of the current market indicators including active and pending inventory, price reductions and how quickly new listings are going under contract.

End of October Maui Single Family Home Inventory

8/31/229/31/2210/31/22
ActivePendingActivePendingActivePending
<$750,00011117149 (+1)15 (+1)
$750,000-$999,9993144214629 (+8)29 (-15)
$1,000,000-$1,499,9995828453364 (+19)28 (-5)
$1,500,000-$1,999,9994613441741 (-3)13 (-4)
$2,000,000-$2,999,9993612331235 (+2)10 (-2)
$3,000,000-$4,999,9993211351132 (-3)7 (-4)
$5,000,000-$9,999,99926527626 (-1)5 (-1)
$10,000,000-$19,999,9991101109 (-2)0
$20,000,000+50213 (+1)1
Totals256124225140248 (+23)108 (-32)
Maui active and pending home listings by price point on the last day of the month from August, September and October 2022
8/31/229/30/2210/31/22
Haiku20724728(+4)9 (+2)
Hana829110 (+1)0 (-1)
Ka’anapali1041037 (-3)2 (-1)
Kahului112572616 (+9)16 (-10)
Kapalua41406 (+2)0
Kihei4416351640 (+5)11 (-5)
Kula2410221120 (-2)11
Lahaina237211022 (+1)13 (+3)
Makawao15111311139(-2)
Napili/Kahana/Hono…1449711 (+2)6 (-1)
Pukalani85678 (+2)3 (-4)
Spreckelsville/Paia1531048 (-2)2 (-2)
Wailea/Makena16410811 (+1)4 (-4)
Wailuku4122362640 (+4)21 (-5)
A comparison of active and pending home listings by community for the last days of the month from August-October 2022. It does not include all communities on Maui.

End of October Home Inventory Review

The information above is provided with the usual framework. The home inventory data by price point includes all of the island of Maui, but excludes the islands of Molokai and Lanai. The district information is limited to the districts and community with the most activity.

  • After a pretty healthy drop in Inventory in September, active home listings increased by 10.22% by the end of October.
  • The bulk of the inventory increased occurred between $750,00 and $1,500,000 with an increase of 27 listings in that range.
  • It appears that this increase in inventory stems more from slower activity than an influx of new listings. That is reflected in the pending sales data with 20 fewer pending home sales between $750,000 and $1,500,000.
  • This make sense as this is an area of the market where a higher percentage of buyers are using financing. Looking at all of the sales between August 1 and October 30th, 18.93% of the buyers in this price range paid cash. In all other price ranges, 41.77% of buyers used cash. Plain and simple, the increase in mortgage rates is hitting this segment of the market harder.
  • Overall, the number of pending home sales decreased 22.86% between the end of September and the end of October. That is a substantial decrease, but worth noting that pending sales typically decline in the fall.
  • Looking at the market on a community level, all but three districts increased inventory. The exceptions being Kula, Spreckelsville/Paia and Ka’anapali. Ka’anapali’s decrease stemmed in part due to cancelled listings rather than increased sales.
  • Kahului experienced the biggest increase in active listings and the biggest decrease in pending sales. With the vast majority of the inventory in this community priced between $750,000 and $1,300,000, this is a market where the increased rates appear to causing a bigger shift in conditions.

End of October Condo Inventory

8/31/229/30/2210/31/22
ActivePendingActivePendingActivePending
<$250,00016132 (+1)4 (+1)
$250,000-$499,9991417111619 (+8)12 (-4)
$500,000-$749,9993443284032 (+4)35 (-5)
$750,000-$999,9993343333327 (-6)27 (-6)
$1,000,000-$1,499,9992931193621 (+2)30 (-6)
$1,500,000-$1,999,9992435183414 (-4)33 (-1)
$2,000,000-$2,999,9992238144315 (+1)40 (-3)
$3,000,000-$4,999,999121910171017
$5,000,000-$9,999,999817011 (+4)1 (+1)
$10,000,000+40403 (-1)1 (+1)
Total181233145222154 (+9)200 (-22)
A comparison of end of the month active and pending condo sales by price point from August through October of 2022.
8/31/229/30/2210/31/22
ActivePendingActivePendingActivePending
Ka’anapali2516171418 (+1)9 (-5)
Kahului37345 (+2)5 (+1)
Kapalua11610412 (+2)4
Kihei5063486143 (-5)60 (-1)
Lahaina910578 (+3)4 (-3)
Ma’alaea36443 (-1)6 (+2)
Napili/Kahana/Hono…4525293033 (+4)17 (-13)
Wailea248619861985 (-1)
Wailuku91481211 (+3)10 (-2)
Active and Pending Condo inventory by district in Maui during July-September of 2022. This does not include all districts.

End of October Condo Inventory Review

Again, the tables above come with the usual framework for our end of month inventory. The table by price point includes all condos on Maui, but it does not include condos on the islands of Molokai or Lanai. The table with districts is limited to the communities with the most activity.

Pending sales at La’i Loa at Wailea Hills skew the data in Wailea and the $1,500,000-$5,000,000 price ranges. There are 75 pending sales in that development based on contracts penned in 2020 and the first quarter of 2021. Pending sales in La’i Loa won’t start to close until sometime in 2023. Paradise Ridge Estates in Kihei also skews the data albeit to a lesser extent. There are 18 pending sales with that development based on contracts penned between 2018 and the first quarter of 2022. Overall, 46.5% of the pending Condo inventory is in La’i Loa or Paradise Ridge Estates.

  • After three straight months of decreased inventory, condo inventory increased by a modest 6.2%
  • The largest increase in inventory occurred in the $250,000 to $499,999 price range. While this price range has a lower percentage of cash buyers than the overall condo market, the difference isn’t all that substantial.
  • Active inventory increased in 6 out of 10 price ranges, decreased in three and stayed the same in one.
  • Pending sales decreased 9.91% this month. As with home sales, it isn’t too uncommon to see pending sales decrease this time of year.
  • The decrease in pending condo sales by price point was fairly consistent through most ranges, with the exceptions being the very lowest price range and the very highest price points in the market.
  • At the community level, modest increases in inventory were common across the board. The two districts that actually saw a decrease in inventory at the community level were Ma’alaea and Kihei. Both are markets with a lot of vacation rentals. This is a market segment that is still seeing decent demand.
  • Napili, Kahana and Honokowai experienced the biggest drop in pending sales. This is another big vacation rental condo market. Is the difference in activity levels a case of no clear narrative or just variability? This is something to watch with next month’s numbers.

How Quickly Are Properties Going Under Contract

One other metric we use on the blog to track market demand is how quickly properties are going under contract. Specifically, what percentage of new listings are going under contract in ten days or less. The very first time we started documenting this metric was back in February. At that point, 56% of all new listings went under contract within 10 days or less. Between September 12th and 19th, that number shrank to 34%. Between October 11th-18th, the number of properties that went under contract within 10 days or less fell further to 25.58%.

When you break it down by homes and condos, you can see that condos continue to show some measure of resilience. For condos listed between October 11th and 18th, 40% went under contract with buyers in ten days or less. That’s actually up from mid September when the number was 36.66%. For additional context, 66.67% of condos went under contract in 10 days or less between October 11th and 18th, 2021. Going back to 2019, 26% of all condos listed between October 11th and 18th went under contract in 10 days or less.

The numbers for the home market point to a more pronounced cooling. Only 13.04% of all homes listed between October 11th and 18th went under contract in 10 days or less. In mid-September, that number was 32.14%. For additional context, 54.17% of homes listed between October 11th and October 18th, 2021 went under contract in tend days or less. Going back to 2019, 9.09% of all homes listed between October 11th and October 18th, went under contract in ten days or less.

Price Reductions

One market indicator that surprised this month is the number of active listings with price reductions. Nationally, price reductions continue to rise as the real estate market slows under the weight of higher interest rates. Based on the numbers above, one might expect to see more price reductions, particularly with the home market. With fewer properties going under contract quickly and fewer properties going under contract in general, shouldn’t sellers be adjusting to the market?

As of the the 31st, 90 of 248 active home listings or 39.92% reduced their price one or more times. On September 29th, 42.41% of homes went under contract in 10 days or less. On September 2nd, 42.97% of all active listings had one or more price reduction.

On the condo front, 45 of 153 or 29.41% of active condo listings on October 31, 2022 reduced their price one or more times. That’s up from 25% on September 29th. On September 2nd, 27.84% of all active condo listings had price reductions.

Some General Thoughts on the Numbers Above and The State of The Market

It’s been an interesting last six months in the Maui Real Estate market. The first quarter of the year was largely a continuation of 2021. Strong demand combined with limited inventory to fuel strong price growth. Demand slowly started to taper in the second quarter. That said, inventory remained low. While the frenzy of the first quarter subsided, there was a balance between limited supply and just enough demand to make for a competitive market for buyers. While we were well below the frenzy of earlier in the year, homes and condos in particular sold faster and at a higher percentage of asking price than they would in a normal market.

This trend of a balanced ratio between buyers and sellers continued through the summer. Inventory actually contracted through most of the summer, but we lost FOMO (fear of missing out) buyers from the market. The lack of FOMO buyers had an impact. We started to see some downward pressure on values in limited parts of the market. With a discerning buyer pool, flawed properties that would have sold easily in the first quarter weren’t getting any love from buyers.

In my last musings, I showed stats that pointed to the relative resilience of this market despite rates well over 6%. The stats above point to a further shift downward in the market . Or at least two out of three did. The third is a reflection of Maui as a real estate market as a whole.

The increase in inventory and the decrease in pendings show a market where the balance in supply and demand is starting to shift. This is less due to an influx of new inventory as much as it is to decreased demand. When you look at the number of homes going under contract within 10 days or less, you can see where the push above 7% rates is starting to decrease the number of buyers. I am sure the more negative national real estate news is also having an impact on the buying decisions of some. Fomo has been replaced by wait and see.

The decrease in price reductions is the one anomaly in this market. As the market cools, you would expect sellers to adjust. Prior to Covid, Maui’s market dynamics were different than the typical mainland market. Sellers took time to adjust prices and days on market could really pile up before a listing was considered stale. It’s also worth remembering that this shift is pretty recent. We may need to see these conditions persist for a longer before more sellers begin to adjust prices.

The one other thing to note is that while we saw a shift in market conditions in these most recent stats, conditions remain variable. That’s pretty clear when we look at the difference between homes and condos. As of mid-October, new condo listings still went under contract much faster than they did pre-Covid. Condo inventory remains tight compared to demand and the volume of cash buyers blunts the impact of higher rates.There is variability in the home market too. The luxury market, which again includes a higher percentage of cash buyers, appears to be moving relatively well.

Looking forward, it will be interesting to see where the market goes from here. Since it’s taken me longer to write this blog post, I have the advantage of watching market conditions over the first ten days of November. While I haven’t crunched the numbers in any detail, pending sales stabilized to start the month. Yesterday’s inflation print out caused a shift in the bond market and mortgage rates to drop a half a point.Will that persist or will higher rates return? Needless to say, it’s too early tell. If anything, this points to continued weird market dynamics with a lot of variability in conditions.

A Little Maui Beauty to Brighten Your Day

It may not be Monday but…

Contact The Maui Real Estate Team

Variable market conditions and general market weirdness demand quality representation. Contact the Maui Real Estate Team to talk to one of our experienced agents if you are thinking of buying or selling Maui Real Estate. One of our healthy agents will be happy to learn more about your real estate needs. We look forward to being of assistance.

Pete Jalbert

Maui Real Estate Blog

Maui Market Musings Volume XIX

It’s been a few weeks since our last Maui Market Musings. With that in mind, this post delves into the numbers that help cast a light on current Maui market conditions. Since our last post, interests rates surged higher again putting additional pressure on affordability for some buyers. This post looks at what impacts if any higher rates are having on the Maui market. We also look at current inventory levels by price point and community. Other subjects for discussion include cancellations, price reductions and the recent market response to new listings. This is a longer read so you may want to grab your favorite caffeinated beverage before proceeding further. It is not advisable to operate heavy equipment after reading.

Interest Rates

It’s hard not to lead with interest rates when discussing the state of the market. Rates continued their climb since our last update. While they fluctuate daily, they’ve been somewhere between 6.5% and just over 7% over the last few weeks. Needless, to say, we are a long way from the sub 3% interest rates we saw during periods of 2021. For those hoping that this increase is going to be short lived, the recent comments of Fed Chair Jerome Powell suggest that is unlikely to be the case. Powell said higher rates are needed to bring about a “correction” and balance to the housing market. While the Fed doesn’t directly control mortgage rates, they can exert a strong influence with changes to the Federal Funds rate.

Higher rates (even rates lower than current rates) were already impacting real estate markets around the country. Values are starting to retreat in many markets, particularly in some of the frothiest markets of the last couple of years.

So what kind of impact are we seeing on Maui from higher rates? There are a couple of numbers that we look at in this musings that might reflect the impact of higher rates. Pending sales is one with decreased affordability likely to impact the number of buyers. Price decreases is another metric that would or should reflect sellers adjusting to decreased buyer demand. Keep reading to see what those numbers look like recently on Maui.

Maui Home Inventory

7/31/228/31/229/30/22
ActivePendingActivePendingActivePending
<$750,000111411117 (-4)14 (+3)
$750,000-$999,9992562314421 (-10)46 (+2)
$1,000,000-$1,499,9996534582845 (-13)33 (+5)
$1,500,000-$1,999,9994119461344 (-2)17 (+4)
$2,000,000-$2,999,9993119361233 (-3)12
$3,000,000-$4,999,999259321135 (+3)11
$5,000,000-$9,999,99924726527 (+1)6 (+1)
$10,000,000-$19,999,999120110110
$20,000,000+51502 (-3)1 (+1)
Totals239156256124225 (-31)140 (+16)
Maui active and pending home listings by price point on the last day of the month from July, August and September 2022
7/31/228/31/229/30/22
ActivePendingActivePendingActivePending
Haiku221120724 (+4)7
Hana41829 (+1)1 (-1)
Ka’anapali107104103 (-1)
Kahului132111257 (-4)26 (+1)
Kapalua514140 (-1)
Kihei4814441635 (-9)16
Kula1916241022 (-2)11 (+1)
Lahaina181423721 (-2)10 (+3)
Makawao149151113 (-2)11
Napili/Kahana/Hono…1061449 (-5)7 (+3)
Pukalani76856 (-2)7 (+2)
Spreckelsville/Paia10215310 (-5)4 (+1)
Wailea/Makena15516410 (-6)8 (+4)
Wailuku3935412236 (-5)26 (+4)
A comparison of active and pending home listings by community for the last days of the month from July-September 2022. It does not include all communities on Maui.

End of September Home Inventory Review

The information above is provided with the usual framework. The home inventory data by price point includes all of the island of Maui, but excludes the islands of Molokai and Lanai. The district information is limited to the districts with the most activity.

  • The inventory of active homes fell 12.2% between the last day of August and the last day of September.
  • Active inventory decreased in all price ranges below $3,000,000. There was a modest increase in inventory between $3,000,000 and $10,000,000, no change between $10,000,000 and $19,999,999, and a decrease in inventory above $20,000,000.
  • Pending sales activity increased 12.9% over last month! This is a surprising reverse of recent trends. It is an especially big surprise with the recent mortgage rate increases.
  • The biggest increase in pending sales occurred below $2,000,000. Above that price range the number of pending sales was either steady or increased by one. No price ranges experienced a decrease in pending sales activity. It is worth noting that the $10,000,000 to $19,999,999 range had no pending sales as of the end of August and still has no pending sales.
  • Looking at the different communities around the island, only two communities saw an increase in inventory. Haiku and Hana both saw modest increases in active listings. Anecdotally, it seems like some sellers in these windward communities try to get homes on to the market before the start of the rainy season later in the fall. I haven’t taken the plunge to determine if there is any quantitative evidence to support that claim.
  • After seeing big growth in inventory in late Spring and early Summer, Kihei saw the biggest decrease in active inventory for the second month in a row. Notably, the total number of pending sales in Kihei did not change. With that in mind, I decided to look a little closer at the Kihei market activity. While Kihei added 8 new pending sales this month, 7 sales closed, 8 listings cancelled and 2 expired. Only 4 new listings came to market. Based on those numbers, the reason for the decrease in inventory is multi-faceted. The cancellations could be a sign of seller capitulation (more on that below) or just sellers taking a break. We shall see.
  • Wailea and Wailuku are the two communities that saw the biggest increase in pending sales with 4 net new pendings. Wailea’s increase is a little more notable due to the percentage increase in pending sales. It’s worth mentioning that 4 of the 5 overall new pending sales in Wailea and Makena reduced prices before going under contract. There’s something to be said for listening to market feedback and adjusting price.

Maui Condo Inventory

7/31/20228/31/20229/30/2022
ActivePendingActivePendingActivePending
<$250,000181613 (-3)
$250,000-$499,9991123141711 (-3)16 (-1)
$500,000-$749,9994339344328 (-6)40 (-3)
$750,000-$999,999444333433333 (-10)
$1,000,000-$1,499,9993031293119 (-10)36 (+5)
$1,500,000-$1,999,9993033243518 (-6)34 (-1)
$2,000,000-$2,999,9992036223814 (-8)43 (+5)
$3,000,000-$4,999,9991218121910 (-2)17 (-2)
$5,000,000-$9,999,999103817 (-1)0 (-1)
$10,000,000+404040
Totals205234181233145 (-36)222 (-11)
A comparison of end of the month active and pending condo sales by price point from July through September of 2022.
7/31/20228/31/20229/30/2022
ActivePendingActivePendingActivePending
Ka’anapali2413251617 (-8)14 (-3)
Kahului283734 (-3)
Kapalua101011610 (-1)4 (-2)
Kihei6760506348 (-2)61 (-2)
Lahaina1689105 (-4)7 (-3)
Ma’alaea56364 (+1)4 (-2)
Napili/Kahana/Hono4034452529 (-16)30 (+5)
Wailea2582248619 (-5)86
Wailuku14139148 (-1)12 (-2)
Active and Pending Condo inventory by district in Maui during July-September of 2022. This does not include all districts.

End of September Condo Inventory Review

Again, the tables above come with the usual framework for our end of month inventory. The table by price point includes all condos on Maui, but it does not include condos on the islands of Molokai or Lanai. The table with districts is limited to the communities with the most activity. Pending sales at La’i Loa at Wailea Hills skew the data in Wailea and the $1,500,000-$5,000,000 price ranges. There are 75 pending sales in that development based on contracts penned in 2020 and the first quarter of 2021. Pending sales in La’i Loa won’t start to close until sometime in 2023. Paradise Ridge Estates in Kihei also skews the data albeit to a lesser extent. There are 18 pending sales with that development based on contracts penned between 2018 and the first quarter of 2022. Overall, 41.89% of current pending sales are long term new developer contracts.

  • The number of active condo listings at the end of September is 19.89% lower than at the end of August.
  • Active inventory decreased in seven out of ten price ranges in the table above. Net inventory was unchanged in the remaining 3 ranges.
  • Pending condo sales dropped 5.2% compared to the end of August. Is this a reflection of reduced inventory, reduced demand or both? It’s hard to say. That said, I did get a surprising number of e-mails last month from fellow Realtors seeking out condo inventory for buyers struggling to find what they want.
  • Pending sales dropped in seven of ten price ranges. Pending sales increased between $1,000,000-$1,499,999 and $2,000,000 and $2,999,999.
  • Ma’alaea is the only community where inventory increased last month albeit with just one more active listing than at the end of August. Kahului’s inventory is unchanged.
  • Napili, Kahana and Honokowai experienced the biggest decrease in inventory with 16 fewer listings at the end of this month. It was also the only community where pending sales increased. The eighteen new pending sales shows pretty healthy activity. It seems that the increase in pending sales is the biggest driver for the decrease in active listings in this market, but cancelled listings were also a factor. Seven sellers pulled their listings off the market.

Cancelled Listings

September is a transitional month on Maui. The summer tourism season is over and we are still a few months from our peak winter season. Anecdotally, I always thought of this as a month where some sellers will opt to take a pause from selling their home only to relist when it gets closer to winter tourism season. With the sharp decrease in active listings this month, I wanted to look closer at cancelled and expired listings. Is September actually a bigger month for cancellations historically? If so, how does this year compare to previous years? Is there anything that can be gleaned from this September’s high cancellations?

20222021201920182017
January2723483755
February219414334
March1815393658
April1917373977
May1322484089
June1916312753
July1722403058
August2716254462
September40 (1)28 (2)39 (t6)50 (1)41 (11)
OctoberTBD16374760
NovemberTBD30364760
DecemberTBD20432945
Monthly cancelled and expired home listings in 2022, 2021, 2019, 2018 and 2017. I note how September ranks each year in the table.
20222021201920182017
January1955274255
February1354381534
March1254274158
April1435433877
May1521543789
June1120372653
July1116234358
August2019212762
September29 (1)13 (11)43 (t2)44 (3)41 (11)
OctoberTBD15374960
NovemberTBD15406560
DecemberTBD11304145
Monthly cancelled and expired real estate listings during 2022, 2021, 2019, 2018 and 2017

Before discussing the numbers above, it is worth noting that there is some noise when it comes to cancelled listings. An agent changing brokerages or one brokerage buying another can inflate cancelled listings. The change in brokerages results in cancelled listings immediately replaced by new listings as old listing contracts are cancelled and new contracts created. I noticed some noise in this month’s cancelled home listings. Hoku’ula, a new development Upcountry, cancelled their MLS listings last month and put them back on the market as new listings at a higher price.

With that framework, let’s address the first question that I posed above. Is September a bigger month historically for cancellations? It appears to be one of the biggest months for canceled home listings albeit with some notable exceptions in the chart above. For condos, it is a little more extreme. Some years it is near the top and others near the bottom with no clear cut reason for the variability.

So what does that say about this year? Even without those five Hoku’ula cancellations, September would still be the highest month for home cancellation for the year to date. September is also leading for cancelled condo listings despite rather limited inventory. It’s hard to say definitively if this is strictly seasonal or if any of those cancellations are due to seller capitulation. That said, it would make sense if we start to see some sellers retreat from the market for non-seasonal reasons. Sellers who were fishing for ultra high prices, don’t need to sell or need to borrow at higher rates to buy a new place could all have reason to pull their listing under current conditions.

Price Reductions

Recent increases in interest rates are generating more price reductions nationally. Sellers are reacting to the decreased affordability posed by higher rates. What about the Maui market? Are we seeing similar trends? I looked at price reductions for active inventory on September 29th.

As of the 29th, 95 out of 224 active listings or 42.41% of all properties reduced their price one or more times. As of September 2nd, that numbers was 42.97%. On August 15th, it was 39.67%. While price reductions are up since the early summer, the more recent decrease in price reductions is somewhat surprising in light of the recent increases in rates.

On the condo front, 36 out of 144 active listings reduced their price one or more times. That calculates to 25% of active inventory. That is down from 27.84% on September 2nd and 29.62% of all listings on August 15th.

With inventory shrinking, perhaps sellers are feeling emboldened to stick to their guns on pricing. The higher level of cash and or low inventory levels seem to be making this market less responsive to interest rate changes thus far.

How Quickly Are New Listings Going Under Contract?

Another metric we continue to watch in the musings is how quickly things are going under contract. Specifically, what percentage of listings are going under contract within 10 days or less. We started tracking this in mid-February when the number was right around 56%. That was pretty much the peak of our winter frenzy. For properties that were listed between September 12th and 19th, 34% of all listings went under contract within 10 days. That is actually up from 29.79% between August 10th and 17th.

For home listings, 32.14% of new listings between September 12th and September 19th went under contract within 10 days or less. By comparison, 38.1% of all homes listed between 9/12/21 and 9/19/21 went under contract in 10 days or less. For a pre-covid comparison, 41.18% of all homes listed between 9/12/19 and 9/19/19 went under contract within 10 days or less. It is worth mentioning that 41% is a much higher percentage than other weeks we’ve looked at in 2019. For example, only 19.04% of homes listed between 9/27/2019 and 10/3/2019 went under contract in 10 days or less.

For condo listings, 36.36% of all new listings went under contract within 10 days between September 12th and 19th. Last year, an eye popping 67.74% of condos listed between 9/12 and 9/19 were under contract in ten days or less. In 2019, 27.27% of all condos listed between 9/12 and 9/19 went under contract within 10 days or less.

Overall, the market is way less frenzied than last year. However, properties are going under contract faster than in a “normal” Maui market. There are definitely fewer buyers, but there are enough buyers out there for the limited supply that over one third of the inventory is going under contract quickly.

A Few Closing Thoughts on the State of the Maui Market

The numbers compiled above paint a picture of a more resilient Maui market than one might expect. We actually saw fewer price reductions for homes and condos while pending home sales increased! Not exactly the market response one would predict when interest rates increase to their highest point in 15 or more years. It appears at this point that limited inventory is still having a significant impact on the market despite the rising borrowing costs.

Will that sustain itself through the rest of the year and into early 2023? I was suprised by this month so who knows what the future will hold. It’s likely that the market has yet to feel the full weight of higher interest rates. Add in signs of a slowing economy and our market is facing additional headwinds. Ultimately, the Maui market moving forward will be a balancing act between the impact of higher rates and supply constraints. Conditions well vary around Maui by both price point, location and property type.

With interest rates likely to remain elevated into the immediate future, more real estate economists are anticipating price corrections. Reading beyond the headlines, economists expect variability in market corrections across the country. Rates will be a market driver, as will the state of the economy and local inventory. It’s important not to base market decisions on national headlines, but instead on relevant local data. We plan to continue with our Musings and community market updates so Maui buyers and sellers have the data to make informed decisions.

A Little Maui Beauty to Brighten Your Day

Contact The Maui Real Estate Team

Questions about the post above? Wondering about conditions in a specific part of the Maui Market? Need assistance buying or selling a property on Maui? Contact The Maui Real Estate Team for assistance. One of our experienced and savvy agents would welcome the chance to sit down with you to discuss your real estate needs.

Pete Jalbert

Maui Real Estate Blog

Maui Real Estate Market Musings Volume XVIII

Maui Market Musings Volume XVIII tackles the notable numbers from August 2022 Real Estate Sales on Maui. It even delves into a nuanced discussion of the (spoiler alert) decrease in median home prices on island and what it may mean. This edition originally included a discussion of Kapalua 2022 market activity, but I am not sure anyone would make it through the two subjects together without consuming dangerous levels of caffeine. Look for that post early next week. Without further ado…

Notable Numbers from the August Home Sales

With Labor Day passed, It’s a good time to took a look through the August Home Sale numbers. The numbers below are the most noteworthy with August 2021 and August 2019 data points provided for comparison. The numbers are different from the Realtor’s Association of Maui numbers because they exclude the islands of Molokai and Lani.

  • Maui Realtors reported 82 homes sold in August of 2022. That is 32% lower than the 120 homes sold in August of 2021. It is 15.5% lower than the 97 homes sold in August of 2019.
  • Of the 82 homes that sold, 14 or 17.07% sold for over asking price and 37 or 45.12% sold for asking price or higher. That is well below what we saw during August of 2021 when 40.83% sold for over asking price and 61.67% sold for asking price or higher. It’s still well above what the market was like in August of 2019. At that time, 11.34% of sales closed for over asking and 28.87% sold for asking price or above.
  • Of the 82 homes sold, 21 or 25.6% of buyers reportedly paid cash.
  • The median price of the homes sold in August is $1,037,500. That is down 2.4% from the August 2021 median of $1,062,500. The August 2022 median is 27.6% higher than the median price in August 2019.
  • The average price of homes sold in August 2022 is $1,537,666. That is 10.9% lower than last August’s average sales price of $1,725,993. The August 22 average is 23.67% higher than the August 2019 average of $1,243,316.
  • The lowest priced home to sell in August closed for $230,000. That is also the lowest sale on the island of Maui all year. The off market sale involved a 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom home with 1,012 square feet of living space on a 7,658 square foot lot. There were no photos or details on the condition of the home.
  • The highest priced transaction in August closed for $7,900,000. The home in the Pineapple Hill subdivision of Kapalua has 6 bedrooms, 6.5 bathrooms and 7,784 square feet of living space.
  • The home in Pineapple Hill was one of three sales over $5,000,000 and one of fourteen that closed for over $2,000,000.

Let’s Talk About Median Prices and Home Values

I would imagine the fact that this August’s median is lower than last August’s median raised a few eyebrows. Does mean that we may be seeing values decrease? I think this merits some discussion.

If you are a long term reader of this blog, you will know that I am wary of tying shifts in median price to shifts in home values. The composition of sales can be a big driver of month to month shifts in median prices. A lot of lower priced homes selling in a month could drive down median prices while more high end sales may drive up median prices. Maui’s not the easiest real estate market for tracking changes in price. The volume of sales is relatively low and the inventory is heterogeneous. Even some of our more cookie cutter subdivisions have variability in views and location that can impact value.

I like quantitative evidence a lot more than anecdotal evidence. At this point, I can’t point to any clear numbers that support price drops. That said, a case can be made that some homes on Maui that sold during the first five to six months of this year would sell for less now. Competition remained fierce in the first quarter and bidding wars were common. Borrowing costs were still a lot lower than they are now. Investors were still active. FOMO or fear of missing out on low borrowing costs and limited inventory meant buyers bid aggressively pushing up prices.

Fast forward to this summer and the dynamic changed. The pool of buyers is significantly smaller due to higher borrowing costs and an absence of investors. We are definitely past the FOMO phase of the market. With a lot less buyer demand, we are starting to see some properties struggling to sell. While I know this is speculative, I surmise that some of these properties that are sitting would have attracted multiple buyers earlier in the year. The competition would have pushed prices upwards. Without competition, some of these are sellers are needing to reduce prices.

Now, does this mean home prices are going down across the board? Absolutely not. At this point, I would argue that this is a phenomenon limited to lower price points in the market. In particular, it is confined to lower priced properties with flaws that FOMO buyers forgave, but current buyers are less willing to accept. There are other market segments where inventory is starting to build. I could see those parts of the market start to see drops in value, but we aren’t there yet. It is also worth pointing out at that this market is incredibly variable. Above asking price sales are still higher than they were pre-Covid and there are still still homes closing for all time neighborhood highs.

Will we start to see more broad based decreases in value? That’s tough to say. We share one attribute with some of the markets that are seeing downward pricing pressure and that is we had a high number of work from anywhere relocations. What differentiates us from the markets that are seeing price decreases is our current lack of inventory. We are still well below 2019 inventory levels with no clear relief in sight. Ultimately, the balance between supply levels and demand will dictate our price trajectories. It’s also likely that this balance will continue to vary by community and by price point.

Notable August Condo Sales Numbers

I present the condo numbers with the same framework as the home sale numbers. They differ from the Realtor’s Association of Maui statistics because they exclude the islands of Molokai and Lanai.

  • Maui Realtors reported 103 condos sold in August 2022. That is a 44.9% drop from the 187 sales in August 2021. It is 13.45% lower than the 119 condos sold in August of 2019.
  • Of the 103 condos sold, 21.36% sold for over asking price and 45.63% sold for asking price or above. In August of 2021, 27.81% sold for over asking and 66.84% sold for asking price or above. In August of 2019, 12.5% sold for over asking price and 39.17% sold for asking price or above.
  • Of the 103 condos sold, 52 or 50.49% paid cash.
  • The median price of the 104 condos sold last month is $820,000. Last month’s median is 26.15% higher than the August of 2021 of $650,000. It is 60.78% higher than the August 2019 median of $510,000.
  • The average price of condos sold in August 2022 is $1,233,249. That is 30.88% higher than the average sales price of $949,939 in August of 2021. It is 40.09% higher than the 2019 average sales price of $887,539.
  • The lowest priced condo to sell in August of 2022 closed for $150,000. The 1 bedroom, 1 bathroom unit is located in the Harbor Lights Condominium in Kahului.
  • The highest priced condo to close in August of 2022 sold for $9,200,000. The 4 bedroom, 4.5 bathroom condominium with 4,817 square feet of living space is located in the Kula Villas complex within the Makena Golf and Beach Club.
  • The Kula Villas sale is one of five transactions that closed for $5,000,000 or higher and one of seventeen sales that closed for more than $1,500,000.

A Few Comments on the Condo Numbers

Since we broached the subject of home values, I might as well go down the worm hole of discussing condo values. There is a pretty clear contrast in this month’s median home and condo prices. While median home values are below August 2021, the median condo value is well above August 2021. Again, changes in median prices don’t always reflect changes in values.

However, the condo market remains more resilient than the home market on island. I am continuing to see upward pressure on prices in the vacation rental and second home condo market. Demand for the limited inventory remains strong. Some of the condo properties geared toward island residents like Kihei Villages and Southpointe seem to be losing the steam that they had earlier this year. Plain and simple, this part of market is cooling faster than other parts of the condo market due to affordability. If borrowing costs remain closer to 6% or higher and inventory grows at all, this part of the market could also start to see decreasing values. Like the home market, this ultimately depends on the balance between supply and demand.

Some Maui Beauty to Brighten This Post

Contact The Maui Real Estate Team

Contact The Maui Real Estate Team with questions, comments or feedback or if you need assistance buying or selling property on Maui. Market conditions on island are varied and dynamic. Now more than ever, it’s important to have experienced and savvy representation. We look forward to hearing from you to answer questions and learn more about your real estate needs.

Pete Jalbert

Maui Real Estate Blog

Maui Market Musings Volume XVII

This is our seventeenth Maui Market Musings. This edition continues to focus on the metrics that give us the best indication of current market conditions. Those three metrics are inventory, price reductions and how quickly properties are going under contract. Discretion was the better part of valor and I am going to hold off on my Kapalua market update for either the next musings or a stand alone post. I imagine people have more to do over the holiday weekend than reading a 3,500 word manuscript on the Maui Real Estate Market. Without further ado…

End of Month Inventory of Maui Single Family Homes

6/30/227/31/228/31/22
ActivePendingActivePendingActivePending
<$750,00061611141111 (-3)
$750,000-$999,9993263256231 (+6)44 (-18)
$1,000,000-$1,499,9994337653458 (-7)28 (-6)
$1,500,000-$1,999,9994422411946 (+5)13 (-6)
$2,000,000-$2,999,9993415311936 (+5)12 (-7)
$3,000,000-$4.999,999271025932 (+7)11 (+2)
$5,000,000-$9,999,99923824726 (+2)5 (-2)
$10,000,000-$19,999,99913012011 (-1)0
$20,000,000+415150
Totals241169239156256 (+17)124 (-32)
Maui active and pending home listings by price point on the last day of the month from June, July and August 2022
6/30/227/31/228/31/22
ActivePendingActivePendingActivePending
Haiku2013221120 (-2)7 (-4)
Hana42418 (+4)2 (+1)
Ka’anapali117107104 (-3)
Kahului827132111 (-2)25 (+4)
Kapalua53514 (-1)1
Kihei4522481444 (-4)16 (+2)
Kula2513191624 (+4)10 (-6)
Lahaina2018181423 (+5)7 (-7)
Makawao131214915 (+1) 11 (+2)
Napili/Kahana/Hono…12310614 (+4)4 (-2)
Pukalani127768 (+1)5 (-1)
Spreckelsville/Paia11210215 (+5)3 (+1)
Wailea/Makena13415516 (+1)4 (-1)
Wailuku3933393541 (+2)22 (-13)
A comparison of active and pending home listings by community for the last days of the month from June-August 2022. It does not include all communities on Maui.

End of August Home Inventory Review

The information above is provided with the usual framework. The home inventory data by price point includes all of the island of Maui, but excludes the islands of Molokai and Lanai. The district information is limited to the districts with the most activity.

  • The inventory of active home listings on Maui actually increased approximately 7% since the last day of July. This comes on the heels of a decrease in active listings in July.
  • Active inventory decreased in only two price ranges.
  • Pending sales dipped again. Pending listings are 21% lower than the end of July and 27% below the end of June.
  • Pending sales increased in only the $3,000,000 to $4,999,999 price range.
  • Looking at the different price ranges, the $750,000-$999,999 price point stands out. Through the market boom of the last couple of years, you could make an argument that this was among the most competitive price points. Needless to say, this is a very different market now. The increase in interest rates reduced affordability for local buyers, and many investors seem to be sitting on the sidelines. As of today, 56% of the active listings in the range reduced their asking price at least once. Sellers are needing to adjust their price to the new realities of the market.
  • Looking at the different communities around the island, the month to month shifts in the trajectory of inventory are notable. A number of places where inventory increased between June and July, decreased between July and August and vice versa. I would suspect we might continue to see this pattern moving forward.
  • Kihei home inventory is notable for it’s month to month decrease after steady and significant growth in active listings over the previous months.
  • Resort market inventory saw limited changes in active inventory. Ka’anapali and Kapalua both have one fewer active listings while Wailea has one more.

End of August Maui Condo Inventory

6/30/227/31/2228/31/22
ActivePendingActivePendingActivePending
<$250,000281816 (-2)
$250,000-$499,9991925112314 (+3)17 (-6)
$500,000-$749,9993140433934 (-9)43 (+4)
$750,000-$999,9994446444333 (-11)43
$1,000,000-$1,499,9992930303129 (-1)31
$1,500,000-$1,999,9992834303324 (-6)35 (+2)
$2,000,000-$2,999,9992036203622 (+2)38 (+2)
$3,000,000-$4,999,999112512181219 (+1)
$5,000,000-$9,999,9991131038 (-2)1 (-2)
$10,000,000+304040
Totals199247205234181 (-24)233 (-1)
A comparison of end of the month active and pending condo sales by price point from June through August of 2022.
6/30/20227/31/20228/31/2022
ActivePendingActivePendingActivePending
Ka’anapali2315241325 (+1)16 (+3)
Kahului43283 (+1)7 (-1)
Kapalua129101011 (+1)6 (-4)
Kihei5574676050 (-17)63 (+3)
Lahaina1651689 (-7)10 (+2)
Ma’alaea55563 (-2)6
Napili/Kahana/Hono4834403445 (+5)25 (-9)
Wailea 2385258224 (-1)86 (+4)
Wailuku121214139 (-5)14 (+1)
Active and Pending Condo inventory by district in Maui during June-August of 2022. This does not include all districts.

End of August Condo Inventory Review

Again, the tables above come with the usual framework for our end of month inventory. The table by price point includes all condos on Maui, but it does not include condos on the islands of Molokai or Lanai. The table with districts is limited to the communities with the most activity. Pending sales at La’i Loa at Wailea Hills skew the data in Wailea and the $1,500,000-$5,000,000 price ranges. There are 75 pending sales in that development based on contracts penned in 2020 and the first quarter of 2021. Pending sales in La’i Loa won’t start to close until sometime in 2023. Paradise Ridge Estates in Kihei also skews the data albeit to a lesser extent. There are 18 pending sales with that development based on contracts penned between 2018 and the first quarter of 2022. Those should start closing in the not too distant future.

  • After steadily increasing over the last few months, active condo listings at the end of August dropped 12% from the end of July.
  • Pending condo sales were virtually unchanged with only one fewer pending sale at the end of August compared to the end of July.
  • Looking at the data by price range, active inventory only increased between $250,000-$499,000 and between $2,000,000 and $2,999,999. The biggest drops in active inventory occurred between $500,000 and $999,999 followed by $1,500,000 to $1,999,999.
  • Kihei continues to be one of the more dynamic communities when it comes to inventory. Much like Kihei Home inventory, Kihei Condo inventory dropped significantly since the end of July. That comes on the heels of seeing the largest increase over the months prior. Pendings increased as well. Without doing a really thorough comparison of the month to month inventory, it’s hard to say if this is variability or sellers adjusting their pricing and buyers responding.
  • The Napili, Kahana and Honokowai condo inventory took the opposite trajectory from Kihei with pending sales dipping substantially and active listings increasing on the month.
  • The change between the end of the month active inventory in the resort markets was nominal. Wailea’s active inventory increased by 1 and both Kapalua and Ka’anapali decreased by 1. Pendings increased in both Ka’anapali and Wailea while the Kapalua pending sales dipped.

One final thing worth noting about home and condo inventory, September 1 marks something of a seasonal shift on Maui. Labor day is the end of our summer tourist season. Traditionally, real estate activity on island slows a little in the early fall. This is a time when some sellers take a break from the market. Eleven home and condo listings either cancelled or expired on September 1 after the numbers for the charts above were compiled. We also tend to see a little less in the way of new inventory. One would think that would be the case this year, but there are fewer certainties in this day and age.

Checking in On Price Reductions

Nationally, there is some discussions of price reductions starting to level off after steady growth over the last few months? What about Maui? Looking at the inventory as of September 2nd, 42.97% of all active home listings reduced their price one or more times. On August 15th, 39.67% of active homes reduced their price. On July 4th, that number stood at 34.03%.

In the condo market, 27.84% of all active listings reduced their price. That is actually a decrease from 29.62% on August 15th. For further context, 24.63% of the active condo listings had a reduced asking price on July 4th.

It’s worth noting, that some parts of the market have more price reductions than other. There is a fair amount of variability in the market by district and price point. One example being homes in the $750,000-$999,999 price range which I mentioned earlier.

How Quickly Are Things Going Under Contract?

Another metric that gives a pretty good sense of current demand and market conditions is the rate at which properties go under contract. Specifically, we look at what percentage of properties go under contract in ten days or less. We started tracking this in February when market conditions were particularly frenzied. At the time, 56% of all properties went under contract within 10 days. Of the listings that came to market between August 10th and August 17th, 29.79% went under contract within 10 days. That’s actually up a little from the last period we tracked between July 25th and August 1st when 22.45% went under contract within 10 days or less of coming to market.

Looking specifically at homes, 30.43% of the new listings between August 10th and 17th went under contract in 10 days or less. For comparison’s sake, between August 10-17, 2021, 50% of new inventory went under contract in 10 days or less. For a pre-covid reference point, it was 15.15% of new home listings between August 10th – August 17th, 2019 . I do want to mention that this seems to be an anomalously low week. Other recent 2019 comparisons came in around 25%.

For condos, 29.17% of the new listings between August 10th and August 17th went under contract in ten days or less. During the same time span of 2021 and 2019 respectively, the numbers came in at 58.33% and 30.43%.

Overall, we are well below last year’s frenzy. While we may have fewer buyers and sellers, the overall absorption of new properties is similar to what we experienced before Covid.

Interest Rates

One other variable relevant to market conditions is interest rates. Recent movement in the bond market pushed interest rates on the 30 year fixed mortgage back up over 6%. This is the first time mortgages hit that rate since June. From recent discussions with mortgage brokers, many borrowers are opting for 10 year ARMs to lower monthly payments. That said, regardless of the mortgage product borrowing costs are significantly higher now than they were 12 or even 6 months ago. That is going to have a big impact on affordability.

Some Musings Eye Candy From Maui’s Sandy Shores

Contact The Maui Real Estate Team

Questions, comments or feedback? Contact The Maui Real Estate Team to discuss the latest market musings or if you need assistance buying or selling Maui Real Estate. Our experienced team of agents is well suited to assist buyers and sellers in the current dynamic market conditions. We look forward to hearing from you and discussing your real estate needs.

Pete Jalbert