Maui Real Estate Blog

Maui Real Estate Market Update July 3rd, 2020

The Maui Real Estate market showed another strong week of buyer demand to close out the month of June. Weekly pending sales hit a new pandemic era high. Meanwhile sales levels are continuing to rebound as we move past the influence of low buyer demand in early April. Find out specific numbers and more details in the paragraphs below.

Weekly pending real estate sales in Maui County during the Covid-19 Pandemic.
New weekly pending real estate sales in Maui County by property type during the Covid-19 pandemic. My seven day tracking period runs from Wednesday through Tuesday.

Maui Realtors reported 56 pending sales over the seven day period between June 24th and 30th. That is a 24% increase over last week’s pending sales. It is 14% below the same seven day period of 2019. This was the strongest week for pending sales since the seven day period from February 26th-March 3rd.

Notable Numbers from this Week’s New Pending Sales

  • The 56 new pending sales include 28 homes, 22 condos and 6 lots.
  • The 28 pending home sales ties the highest weekly number during the Covid-19 era.
  • Last week, I noted that it was a particularly slow week for non-vacation rental condos with only 3 new pending sales. I cautioned about reading too much into that number. I feel somewhat vindicated as non-vacation rental condo activity rebounded this week. There were 12 new non-vacation rental pending sales.
  • The six pending land sales is the highest seven day total since the period between March 4th and March 10th.

This Week’s Real Estate Sales

Weekly Real Estate Sales in Maui County by Property Type During Covid-19
Weekly real estate sales by property type in Maui County during the Covid-19 Pandemic.

Maui Realtors reported 53 sales last week. That is 66% more than the week prior yet 22% below the same seven day period last year. The 53 closed transactions is the highest seven day total since the last week of March. This can be attributed to two things. First and foremost, sales are a lagging indicator. Some of the low sales totals we saw in May and June were due to low buyer demand in April. The current sales total reflects the impact of stronger buyer demand and increased new pending sales in May. The other factor is that the last week of June is traditionally a strong week for sales with the 30th being particularly strong. That was true of the last day of June this year with 18 transactions closing in just that one day.

This Week’s New Inventory Numbers

Weekly New Inventory During Covid-19 in Maui County, Hawaii
Weekly new inventory by Property Type in Maui County during Covid-19

A little less new inventory came on the market compared to recent weeks. Maui Realtors listed 65 properties this week. That is 8% below last week and 7% below the same week last year. There was more new condo inventory than other property types with 33 new listings. The 27 new home listings was slightly lower than the 28 homes that went under contract last week. The 5 new land listings are a little below the 6 pending transactions that happened last week.

Overall, inventory remains relatively low on island. Home inventory is below the same period last year. Demand for homes is higher than other property types. This is sustaining and even increasing home prices modestly depending on where you are on island and price point. The condo inventory is gradually increasing. Inventory levels are actually higher than the same time last year. While demand isn’t quite as strong for condos, as of now the balance of inventory vs demand is supporting market prices.

That balance between supply and demand in the condo market will be something I will be watching as the summer progresses. Will we see a continued growth in supply? What about demand? While a number of off island buyers are using tools such as video and 3D tours to purchase sight unseen, does the chance to see property first hand cause more buyers to pull the trigger? The extent to which the local economy is revived by the return of tourism is also likely to impact both the number of local buyers and the supply of inventory for the non-vacation rental condo market.

Contact The Maui Real Estate Team

The Maui Real Estate market is pretty diverse. While this post speaks to the overall market conditions, supply and demand vary by community, neighborhood and price point. Contact the Maui Real Estate Team if you are considering buying or selling property on Maui. We would welcome the chance to listen and learn about your real estate needs. We would also be happy to brief you on market conditions specific to your interests.

Pete Jalbert

Maui Real Estate Blog

June 27th Weekly Maui Real Estate Market Update

After two successive weeks of increasing activity, home buyer activity was down during my last seven day tracking period. Fluctuations can be expected when you are monitoring real estate activity on a week by week basis. This week’s new pendings, closed transactions and new listings are all lower than the week prior. Find out more details about this week’s Maui Real Estate activity below.

This Week’s Pending Real Estate Sales

Weekly Pending Maui Real Estate Sales by property type in Maui County during Covid-19
This chart compares Weekly Pending Real Estate Sales by property type during the Covid-19 Pandemic. The weeks run from Wednesday through Tuesday. I chose this timeframe to correspond with the start of stay at home orders on Wednesday March 25th.

Maui Realtors reported 45 new pending sales in the seven day period between June 17th and June 23rd. That is 17% fewer pending sales than last week. It is 15% less than the same seven day period of 2019.

I don’t think we should read too much into this week’s decrease. I have followed this relatively small market long enough to know random fluctuations in activity occur. In the long run a drop here or a bigger rise there can amount to statistical noise. Trends are going to be established over many weeks.

Overall, current buyer activity remains strong when you take a look at the bigger picture. Maui still has 34% unemployment and few if any off island visitors. You would expect much lower activity in light of these numbers.

Notable Numbers from this Week’s Pending Sales

  • This week’s 46 pending sales include 23 new pending home sales, 19 new pending condo sales and 3 pending lots.
  • Buyer demand for homes remains pretty consistent. For three of the last four weeks, there were 23 new pending home sales with the week prior to this the outlier with 28 new pendings.
  • The 19 new pending condo sales included 16 vacation rentals and 3 condos in developments that prohibit vacation rentals. Second home condo purchases are outpacing condos used for primary residences during Covid-19. However, this week’s numbers are a lot more imbalanced than normal. Again, I caution jumping to conclusions about this sudden imbalance. I sneaked a peak at the last couple of days and there were already 5 pending sales at condos that prohibit rentals. This may well be just random variability in the market.
  • Pending land sales remain consistent. The weekly pending continue to fluctuate between 0 and 4 new escrows per week. This is the one market segment where we aren’t seeing clear growth in buyer activity.

Closed Transactions During The Last Week

This chart compares weekly real estate sales by property type during the Covid-19 pandemic
Weekly Maui Real Estate Sales by property type during the Covid-19 pandemic

Maui Realtors reported 32 sales between June 17th and June 23rd. That is 6% lower than the week prior and 54% below the same seven day period of 2019. Keep in mind, sales are a lagging indicator of buyer demand. Most of the closed transactions are based on contracts agreed upon 30-60 days ago.

This Week’s New Listings

This chart tracks weekly new listings by property type during the Covid-19 pandemic.
Tracking weekly new listings by property type during the Covid-19 Pandemic.

Maui Realtors brought 71 properties to market between June 17th and June 23rd. That is 9% below the week prior’s new listings and 11% below the same seven day period of 2019. Once again, new condo listings lead the way with 40 properties coming to market. There are 24 new home listings and seven new lots on the market.

At this point, inventory levels remain low enough to sustain current pricing with modest price increases in some market segments. The condo market merits watching long term as new inventory continues to exceed new pending sales. Not to sound like a broken record for those that read these updates on a weekly basis, but inventory levels were low going into the pandemic. Limited inventory was clearly impacting the market during the first two months of the year. There is room to absorb some new inventory without adversely affecting pricing.

The home market continues to see the strongest demand with the least new inventory relative to that demand. That is helping to keep sustain and in some cases lead to modest increases in pricing.

The Return of Trans-Pacific Travel

Looking at the big picture, there was big news in Hawaii this week as the governor outlined the path to Transpacific travel without quarantine. As of August 1, travelers will be able to travel to the islands without quarantining if they test negative for Covid-19 within 72 hours of their departure to Hawaii. If they do not take a test, they will still be subject to two weeks of quarantine.

It will be interesting to see how this impacts the market moving forward. The arrival of tourists will be a boost to the local economy. It could also bring more off island buyers back into the market.

I have been somewhat surprised at how resilient that part of the market has been to date. Technology plays a key part as 3D tours, facetime tours and video allow buyers to get a pretty good perspective on properties. These tools are providing enough of a comfort level for sight unseen offers. That said, you would think that the physical return of second home buyers should boost activity.

Contact The Maui Real Estate Team

While the world may seem a little crazy, the beauty of Maui remains a constant. There are still kama’aina and second home owners searching for a place to call home on this beautiful island. Contact The Maui Real Estate Team if you are considering buying or selling a home on Maui. We look forward to sitting down with you to learn more about your real estate needs.

Pete Jalbert

Maui Real Estate Blog

June 19 Maui Real Estate Market Update

Buyer activity in the Maui Real Estate market is inching closer to pre-pandemic levels. As the influence of slower buyer demand in April wanes, sales numbers are improving. On the supply side, more sellers appear to be reentering the market now that things are opening up on island. Find out more details about this week’s Maui Real Estate activity below.

New Pending Real Estate Sales

Weekly pending Maui Real Estate Sales by property type during Covid-19 through June 18th.
Weekly pending real estate sales by property type in Maui County during the Covid-19 pandemic. Weeks run from Wednesday through Tuesday to correspond with the start of stay at home orders on Wednesday March, 25th.

Maui Realtors reported 54 new pending sales over the seven day period between June 10th and June 16th. That is a 13% increase over last week’s pending sales. It is just 4% below the same seven day period last year.

After a dip in mid-May, this is three straight weeks of increased pending sales. The headwinds of high unemployment and extremely limited visitor numbers are not significantly constraining buyer demand at this time.

This Week’s Notable Numbers from the Pending Real Estate Sales

  • The 54 new pending sales consisted of 28 pending home sales, 24 pending condo sales and 2 pending lot sales.
  • The 28 pending home sales equals a weekly high total during the pandemic. The 24 pending condo sales is the highest number since the start of the pandemic.
  • The condo market continues to see more activity from second home buyers with vacation rentals accounting for 16 of 24 condo pending sales.
  • The land market is not seeing a clear uptick in activity. The 2 pending lot sales are in line with typical Covid-19 levels of buyer demand. Including this week, Maui County is averaging 1.833 pending lot sales every seven days since March 25th.

This Week’s Closed Real Estate Transactions

Weekly Real Estates Sales in Maui County during the Covid-19 Pandemic
Weekly real estate sales by property type in Maui County during the Covid-19 Pandemic

Maui Realtors reported 34 sales between June 10th and 16th. This is a 212.5% increase in sales volume from the week prior. It is 23% below the closed transactions for the same seven day period of 2019. It is important to remember that sales are a lagging indicator of buyer demand. As we get further and further away from the slowest periods of buyer demand in early to mid April, we should continue to see a rise in closed deals.

This Week’s New Listings

New listings by property type in Maui County during the Covid-19 Pandemic.
Weekly new listings by property type during the Covid-19 Pandemic

Maui Realtors listed 78 properties between June 10th and June 16th. That is a 1% increase in new listings over the week prior. It is 5% lower than the same seven day period of 2019. I noticed a few listings that were pulled from the market earlier in the pandemic coming back again this week. Whether it is due to the very limited cases of Covid-19 on island or improved market conditions, some sellers that withdrew earlier are deciding to dip their toes back into the market.

Breaking it down by property type, new condo listings are outpacing new home listings. That has been the case for most weeks of the pandemic. Condo inventory was low prior to Covid-19 so there is room for the market to absorb some additional inventory. After the tight inventory pre-Covid, buyers will likely welcome a few more options on the market. The increase in inventory is also not universal. While some individual complexes are seeing more inventory, it remains limited in others. The balance between supply and demand in different parts of the condo market will be worth monitoring over the months ahead.

The inventory of homes increased over the last couple of months, but at a much slower pace. Over the last seven days pending home sales actually outpaced new listings by one. This is one of a handful of weeks since the start of the pandemic when pending home sales outpaced new home listings on a weekly basis.

Contact The Maui Real Estate Team

While the market conditions on Maui appear to be improving, it still isn’t quite back to normal. We are also seeing some varying levels of supply and demand between different market segments. Now more than ever, it makes sense to have quality representation if you are a buyer or seller. Contact The Maui Real Estate Team if you are thinking about buying or selling property on Maui. We look forward to learning about your needs and being of assistance.

Pete Jalbert

Maui Real Estate Blog

Maui Real Estate Market Update June 13th, 2020

The Maui Real Estate market saw its second consecutive week of strengthening buyer activity. Closings remain impacted by limited buyer activity from earlier in the pandemic. Buyers will find that there is more inventory starting to come to market. Find out more below as I delve into this week’s market activity in Maui County.

Weekly new pending real estate sales in Maui County during the Covid-19 pandemic. This chart runs through June 9, 2020.
This chart shows weekly pending sales by property type in Maui County during the Covid-19 pandemic. The weeks run from Wednesday through the following Tuesday.

Maui Realtors reported 48 new escrows this week. That is a 4% percent increase over last week. It is just 2% below the number of properties that went under contract during the same seven day period of 2019.

I was somewhat surprised by the increase in activity last week in spite of the social upheaval happening around the country. I am even more surprised to see that demand actually increased for this seven day period. This doesn’t seem to be a unique phenomenon to Maui. Redfin’s Glenn Kelman reports the data for his national brokerage below.

To be clear, the Maui market is not seeing demand exceeding pre-pandemic levels. That said, just like on the mainland, Maui buyers have not been deterred by the increase in Covid on the mainland or the nationwide protests.

Notable Numbers From This Week’s Pending Sales

  • The 48 new pending sales include 23 homes, 23 condos and 2 lots.
  • This is only the second time since the stay at home order went into effect that condo sales have been equal to home sales. For the pandemic, pending home sales are higher.
  • Of the 23 pending condo sales, 9 are vacation rentals. Another two pending sales are higher priced resort area condos that prohibit vacation rentals.
  • Pending land sales continue to bounce between 0-4 per week with this week coming in at 2.

This Week’s Sales

Weekly real estate sales by property type during the Covid-19 Pandemic
Weekly real estate sales by property type during the Covid-19 pandemic.

Maui Realtors reported 16 sales between June 3rd and June 9th. This is a dip of 55% from last week and down 68% from the same seven day period from the year prior. Keep in mind that sales are a lagging indicator of buyer demand. I thought our sales numbers were past the influence of the slower demand from just after the stay at home orders went into place. Apparently, that isn’t the case. When you look at the pending sales chart, we should see better sales numbers ahead. Most transactions are taking 30-60 days to close after they go under contract.

New Listings for The Week

Weekly new listings by property type in Maui County during the Covid-19 pandemic
Weekly new listings by property type in Maui County during the Covid-19 Pandemic

Realtors listed 77 properties between June 3rd and 9th. That is the same number as last week and 6% below the same seven day period of 2019. Inventory is slowly growing as new listings outpace new pending sales. The overall inventory numbers remain pretty low with scarcity a big factor in some towns and neighborhoods around the island.

Contact the Maui Real Estate Team

Contact The Maui Real Estate Team if you have questions on the market or if you are interested in buying or selling property on island. Our experience and market knowledge is an asset to buyers and sellers in these dynamic market conditions.

Pete Jalbert

Maui Real Estate Blog

Weekly Maui Real Estate Update June 6, 2020

It has been another week that feels more like a month. Or a year. That also means its time to check in again on the Maui Real Estate market. By a good margin, this was the busiest seven day period for pending sales since February 26th-March 3rd. I keep a close enough eye on the market on a day to day basis that I can’t say I am surprised by this week’s numbers. That said, they don’t really align with the general disorder of the world right now. Read further to find out more details about this week’s numbers.

Weekly Pending Real Estate Sales

Pending Sales Maui County June 2
This chart shows weekly pending real estate sales in Maui County during the Covid-19 pandemic. The weeks run from Wednesday through the following Tuesday. I used this range as the start of stay at home orders on Maui started on March 25th, 2020.

Maui Realtors reported 46 new pending sales between May 27th and June 2nd. That is a 43% increase over last week. That is 16% below the same seven day period of 2019.

After a couple of weeks of relatively flat pending sales, this is a pretty healthy uptick in activity. This surge comes in the midst of a period of historic national upheaval. It’s a lot easier to report the numbers than to explain the numbers this week. If you are looking for other factors at play, some of Maui’s stay at home restrictions were eased on June 1. If that had an impact, it would be more of a psychological one as a good number of the seven day period’s pending sales came before the first of the month.

Going into this week, I remained somewhat surprised by the resiliency of our market. We have close to no off island visitors and our unemployment rate is somewhere between 30 and 40%. Under those conditions, you would expect our activity to be lower. Low and behold, during one of the biggest weeks of social unrest in recent U.S. History buyer activity increased to the highest level since Covid-19 came into the picture.

If there is one other takeaway besides the market’s relative resilience, it would be it’s overall unpredictability. Our market showed a nice bounce coming off the bottom. After a period of steadily increasing activity, it dipped and stalled for a couple of weeks. Now, activity is up again. I would anticipate that we will continue to see fluctuations in the market.

Details Behind This Week’s Pending Sales

  • The 46 pending sales included 28 pending home sales, 15 pending condo sales and 3 pending land sales.
  • The one clear trend in our Covid-19 impacted market is the shift towards home buying. Condo sales outpaced home sales the first three months of the year. Now for every week but one since the start of the pandemic, home pendings outpaced condos. I don’t believe it is a shift in preference. I think it is more due to a contraction in the pool of available condo buyers, particularly off island buyers.
  • This week was the strongest week for pending home sales since February 26th-March 3rd. This comes after three straight weeks in which pending home sales decreased. Just as I was wondering if there may be a trend developing, this week blew that up.
  • This week’s pending condo sales broke down to 9 pendings in condos that prohibit vacation rentals and 6 pendings in condos that allow vacation rentals.
  • This is contrary to a general trend towards vacation rental purchases since the start of Covid-19.
  • The three land pending sales is within the range of 0-4 weekly pending sales that Realtors reported over the last couple of months.
  • One of the new pending land sales was particularly notable. A 1.7 acre beachfront lot in Kapalua listed for $9,900,000 went under contract.

This Week’s Sales Activity

Weekly Real Estate Sales in Maui County during the Covid-19 Pandemic
Weekly Real Estate Sales activity in Maui County during the Covid-19 pandemic up until June 2, 2020.

Maui Realtors reported 35 closed transactions between May 27th and June 2nd. This is a 218% increase over the week prior. That said, it is still 48% below the same seven day period last year. The sales numbers are starting to pick up after being in the doldrums over the last couple of weeks. The increased sales now are reflecting the increase in pending sales that occurred in mid to late April.

Tracking New Inventory

Weekly new real estate inventory in Maui County during the Covid-19 Pandemic.
This chart shows weekly new real estate inventory in Maui County during the Covid-19 pandemic.

Over, the last couple of weeks I added new inventory into our weekly analysis. Today, I took the time to graph weekly inventory between the week of February 26-May 3rd and the seven day period from May 27th-June 2nd .

While not as drastic, there are some similarities to the trends shown in the chart for pending sales. New listings dropped in early and mid-April with a rise in new listings towards the end of the month and mid May. There was a similar dip in activity in the second half of May.

As with pending sales, there was a pretty big uptick in new listings this week. The 77 new listings is a 63% increase over the week prior and a 35% over the same seven day period of 2019.

Maui went into Covid-19 with a shortage of inventory and strong demand. We saw a decrease in supply and a decrease in demand in April. At this point, our inventory remains relatively limited but growing. Demand is below pre-pandemic levels. The current balance is keeping prices stable. It is difficult to guess how things will play out moving forward. We see how demand has fluctuated. We are also seeing some fluctuation in new inventory. Overall, this balance between supply and demand will dictate pricing moving forward.

Contact The Maui Real Estate Team

In these uncertain times, it pays to work with experienced agents. We strive to keep our clients well informed on market conditions and inventory so they can make informed decisions. We take pride in being your strong fiduciary. Send us a message if you are thinking of buying or selling Maui property. One of our agents would welcome the chance to sit down with you to discuss your real estate needs.

Pete Jalbert

Maui Real Estate Blog

Maui Market Update May 29, 2020

Somehow in this strange time space continuum that is the Covid-19 pandemic, another week passed. Once again, that means its time to take a look at the weekly real estate activity in Maui County. This week’s numbers are almost identical to the numbers from last week. Keep reading for more of the details.

Weekly pending real estate sales in Maui County during the Covid-19 Pandemic through May 26th
This chart shows pending real estate sales in Maui County during the Covid-19 pandemic through May 26, 2020. The weeks run Wednesday through Tuesday as the initial stay at home orders went into place on March 25th, 2020.

Maui Realtors reported 32 pending sales in the seven day period between May 20th and May 26th. That is the same number of pending sales as last week. It is 49% of the 63 pendings from the same seven day period last year.

Having followed Maui real estate statistics pretty closely over the last seventeen years, I am reticent to read too much into a couple of weeks of data. That said, the chart above isn’t looking like a V shaped recovery. It is looking a little ragged if it is a check mark shaped recovery. It will be interesting to see the the numbers of the next couple of weeks to see if anything resembling a trend emerges.

Some Notable Numbers from This Week’s Pending Sales

  • The 32 pending sales broke down into fifteen pending home sales, 14 pending condo sales and 4 pending lots.
  • Pending home sales have outpaced pending condo sales for all but one week since the stay at home orders.
  • This is three straight weeks where pending home sales are down from the week prior. I am reticent to read into this too much as of yet. That said, this will be something to monitor going forward.
  • The vacation rental/second home condo market continues to outpace the non-vacation rental condo market. Eight of the thirteen pending sales are in complexes that allow vacation rentals.
  • The land market continues to fluctuate. The four pending sales for the week is tied for the most since the start of stay at home orders. This comes after zero pending lot transactions the week prior.

This Week’s Closed Transactions

Weekly Real Estate Sales Activity in Maui County During The Covid-19 Pandemic through May 26th
Weekly Real Estate Sales Activity for Maui County During the Covid-19 Pandemic Through May 26th

Only 16 transactions closed in the seven day period between May 20th and May 26th. That is one fewer transaction than last week. It is 20% of the 80 transactions that closed during the same seven day period of 2019. These two weeks reflect the really slow pending sales of late March and April. I would be surprised if we don’t start to see an increase in closings either next week or the week following.

A Quick Look at Inventory

Last week’s post looked at the number of new listings since the pandemic. I would like to put together charts showing weekly new inventory since the start of the pandemic, but I am limited by time constraints. I may try to address that on a future post. That said, new listings continue to lag behind last year’s numbers. There are 204 new land, condo and home listings for the month to date. Last year, there were 254 new listings over the same period. That is a 20% drop in new listings.

While the drop in listings is less than the drop in pending sales, it is worth noting that inventory levels were pretty constrained prior to the start of the pandemic. There is another point worth consideration. Quite a few sellers pulled their property from the market since the start of Covid-19. Since March 1, 2020, 364 sellers pulled their listings off the market. Over the same period of time last year, 249 sellers pulled listings off the market. That is a 46% increase. While inventory is growing, there is far from a glut of properties for sale.

The Big Picture

There were a couple of significant announcements related to the local economy over the last week. As of June 1, medium risk businesses will be opening on Maui. That includes restaurants with reduced capacity, fitness centers, and most county parks. As of yesterday, the governor indicated that the mandatory 14 day quarantine for inbound visitors will be extended through at least July 1.

The announcements over the last week points to a local economy that will be opening some, but the main economic engine of tourism will remain throttled for at least another month. I don’t think I am going out on too big of a limb by saying that a lack of tourism will continue to constrain the island’s second home market. While some second home buyers are comfortable with the current norm of sight unseen purchases, not all buyers share that sentiment.

The Maui Real Estate market continues to see activity albeit at reduced numbers. With still no tourism and a struggling local economy, it speaks to the desirability of a home on Maui. We live in a special place. There are local residents who still desire a home to call their own. There are off island residents who still want a place for when it is safe to fly back to Maui. Contact The Maui Real Estate Team if you are thinking of entering the Maui Real Estate market. We look forward to be of assistance.

Pete Jalbert