Maui Real Estate Blog

May 2024 Paia Real Estate Market Update

This is the second of our series that provides neighborhood and community-level market updates. Today’s post looks at Paia town, where The Maui Real Estate Team office is located. This North Shore Beach Town offers access to great beaches and water sports, good shops and restaurants, the charm of an old Plantation town, and a little bit of Bohemia. This post looks at market activity in 2023 and the year to date in 2024.

Recent Paia Market Activity

It is worth noting that our MLS groups Spreckelsville and Paia together in the MLS. We already posted on Spreckelsville market activity, so this post focuses on Paia and Kuau.

The map above shows recent sales and active listings in Paia. 2024 Sales are represented by red pins, 2023 sales are represented by orange pins, and active listings are indicated by green pins. You can find out more about the properties by clicking on the pins.

Notes on 2023 Paia Real Estate Market Activity

In 2023, 13 homes were sold in the Paia and Kuau Areas. That is the lowest annual total since 2008, when ten homes were sold. It is worth noting that there were other years with slower sales totals. For example, in 2019, only 14 homes sold.

Sales volume in Paia is based on both demand and the number and composition of homes sold. That explains why you can have a slow year like 2019. There just wasn’t much to buy. Last year was a slow year island wide for sales so it is not a big surprise that we saw such low sales volumes. However, the number and composition of the homes listed did not help. Only 3 of the homes sold closed for less than $1,000,000. Some of this is due to price appreciation. Some of that is due to just fewer people listing their homes at lower price points.

Skill Village was the busiest neighborhood in Paia for sales activity. Kuau Bayview, North Shore Village, and Kuau Point neighborhoods had two sales each during 2023.

The median price of the homes sold in Paia and Kuau in 2023 was $1,350,000, and the average price was $1,404,000. Again, this speaks partly to the scarcity of homes for sale under $1,000,000. The highest sale in the area during 2023 was $2,572,603 for a 5-bedroom, 3-and-a-half-bath residential condo on Kuau Point. The lowest sale was $775,000 for a 3-bedroom, 3-bath home in Skill Village.

One condo was sold at Kuau Plaza in 2023. The one-bedroom unit sold for $800,000, a new record for the condo development just down the road from Mama’s Fish House.

The newly reopened and revamped Cafe Mambo in Paia Town.

Notes on 2024 Year-to-Date Paia Real Estate Activity

As of May 1, five homes have been sold in Paia and Kuau during 2024. This is ahead of the 2023 pace when only 2 homes had sold in the area by May 1.

While the sample size is small, no Paia neighborhood has more than one sale in 2024. There is one sale each in Kuau Bayview, Skill Village, and Kuau Point. There is also one oceanfront sale on Tavares Bay.

The median price of the homes sold for the year-to-date is $1,875,000, and the average sales price for the five homes is $2,573,000. The highest sale thus far this year is $5,200,000 for a four-bedroom, three-and-a-half-bath home with 3,026 square feet of living space on a 17,289 square-foot lot. The lowest-priced sale thus far is $902,000 for a 2 bedroom/1 bathroom home with 892 square-feet of living space on a 7,000 square foot lot in the Skill Village neighborhood. It is the only sale under $1,000,000 for the year-to-date.

Thus far this year, one condo has sold in Kuau Plaza. The one-bedroom, one-bathroom unit closed for $838,500.

Outlook for the Paia Real Estate Market for the Rest of 2024

It’s hard to say how the rest of the year will unfold for the Paia Real Estate Market. Unpredictability is the rule in this day and age. A few factors may impact the market.

At the top of the list is inventory. While the ten homes and one condo listed seem like a decent supply for the market, it is a little tighter when you scratch the surface. With three of the listings, the owner reserves the right to refuse offers on individual properties and sell them instead as part of a portfolio sale that includes the Paia Inn. Of course, there are also no active listings priced below $1,000,000. The lowest-priced home on the market is $1,449,500. Buyers looking to get a foot in the door in Paia will be depending on inventory not listed currently.

Demand throughout the rest of the year also remains a question mark. Interest rates remain over 7%, which reduces affordability. Visitor numbers on the island remain lower in the aftermath of the fire. We are also getting closer to what will likely be a tumultuous election. Will that cause some buyers to hit pause on their purchase plans?

While Kuau Plaza usually only generates one or two sales a year, proposed legislation by the Mayor of Maui could significantly impact this small North Shore condo development. The apartment-zoned condo is on the Mintoya List. Condos on the list can do short-term rentals. However, the Mayor’s new legislation would eliminate vacation rentals in apartment-zoned condominiums. If the bill passes, it could decrease demand and increase supply.

Need Assistance in Paia or Kuau?

With our office in town, The Maui Real Estate Team knows the Paia and Kuau real estate market well. We keep a close eye on the current inventory and ears to the ground for potential off-market properties. Buyers can check out the current Paia Real Estate listings on MauiRealEstate.com. Sellers and buyers are also welcome to contact us to set up a consultation with one of our Brokers or agents.

Pete Jalbert

Maui Real Estate Blog

Spreckelsville Market Update April 2024

It’s been a while since we did a more granular community-level update on the blog. There is no better place to start than Spreckelsville, one of our office’s favorite neighborhoods. Our broker and one of our agents are long-time residents of the community and know it as well as anyone in the business.

Spreckelsville is located between the Kahului airport and Paia town. It is Maui’s best neighborhood for wind and water sports and is home to the Maui Country Club. There is even bike path access to the shops, restaurants, and wellness-related amenities of Paia. The fantastic lifestyle offered makes it one of the more low-key luxury communities on Maui.

Recent Spreckelsville Market Activity

This post looks at recent market activity in the neighborhood including recent sales and current inventory.

The map above shows recent sales and active listings in Spreckelsville. Sales are represented by red pins and active listings are indicated by green pins. You can find out more about the properties by clicking on the pins.

Notes on Spreckelsville Market Activity

The 2023 calendar year is the first and only year with no recorded sales in Spreckelsville on the MLS, which has data going back to 2002. Other low sale years include 2010, with one MLS sale, and 2018, with two sales. The lack of sales reflects both limited inventory in the neighborhood and a quieter year of market activity overall on the island.

There was one off the MLS sale, and it was a big one. 580 Stable Road closed for $16,000,000. This two-acre beachfront property with a home, pool, and tennis court is the third-highest-ever sales price in Spreckelsville.

The first four months of 2024 saw increased activity with three home sales. The highest-priced sale was at 477 Laulea Place. The house and cottage on an approximately 35,000-square-foot oceanfront lot sold for $11,500,000. While it was reported on the MLS, it was an off market sale.

The other sale worth noting from early 2024 is 2365 Waipua Street. This 4,004 square-foot home with a pool in the Sprecks V subdivision is notable for two reasons. First, it is the highest sale price in this subdivision by a good margin. It closed for $3,175,000. The previous high sale closed for $2,300,000 albeit that was before COVID-19 in January 2020. It is also the first sale in this part of Sprecks since 2021.

Sprecks V used to see more market activity than any other part of Sprecks. It would appear that as Sprecks’ appeal increases, turnover in the lowest-priced part of Spreckelsville decreases. Then again, that may be a reflection of the small sample size. We shall see what future inventory brings.

Current Sprecks Inventory

The inventory of Spreckelsville Homes for Sale is limited at this time. The only home on the MLS is 22 Cane Place. Listed by Martin Lenny from our office, the five-bedroom, five-bathroom home has 3,291 square feet of living space. It is situated on just over 2 acres dotted with Coconut Palms, Monkey Pod Trees, Mango, Papaya, and Plumeria. It has a gated pathway that it shares with other homes in the Kai Holu subdivision that leads to the beach access for Sugar Cove. It is offered for $7,250,000.

22 Cane Place in the Kai Holu subdivision of Spreckelsville.

Sprecks is a community with a higher-than-usual percentage of unlisted and off-market sales. Billy and Martin always have their ears to the ground for opportunities outside the MLS.

Market Outlook for the Rest of 2024

After the quiet of 2023, the last few months marked a resurgence for the Spreckelsville Real Estate Market. That said, we need to see an influx of new inventory or unlisted sales to see the sales volumes of 2021 or 2022. This is common for a neighborhood where scarcity of inventory tends to suppress transaction volume. If you are interested in buying or selling in the neighborhood, give us a call or send us a message.

Interested in Sprecks?

Pete Jalbert

Maui Real Estate Blog

Maui Real Estate Market Update Q4 2023 Vol. 1

It’s that time again. This post takes a look back at real estate activity in Maui during the month of October. It includes data on new inventory, new pending sales and closed transactions. We also look at end of the month inventory levels by price point and community. After digesting the numbers, I give a few thoughts on the market and specifically the impacts of the fire and high interest rates.

Before we get to the numbers, I am still working on a permanent title for what was formerly known as the Maui Market Musings. This month’s title is a particularly straight forward description. Consider it a milquetoast Maui market musings. Now, that’s some alliteration. On to the numbers…

October Market Activity

October 2023October 2022October 2021October 2020October 2019October 2018
Homes778197103137127
Condos9792183181169176
New Inventory in October of 2023 Compared to the Previous Five Octobers

New home listings for October are down about 5% compared to October of 2022. October 2023 new listings are down 44% and 39% respectively compared to October of 2019 and 2018.

New condo inventory is up 5% during the last month compared to October of 2022. It is still well below a “normal” October coming in 43% and 45% below October of 2019 and 2018 respectively.

October 2023October 2022October 2021October 2020October 2019October 2018
Homes 4976106929783
Condos5784129120137130
New Pending Sales in October Compared to the Previous Five Octobers

October of 2023 proved to be a quiet month for new pending home sales. Last month’s numbers came in 38% below October of 2022. They came in 49% below October of 2019 and 41% below October of 2018.

New Pending Condo sales fell 33% compared to October of 2022. The number of new pending condo sales came in 59% and 57% below October of 2019 and 2018 respectively.

October 2023October 2022October 2021October 2020October 2019October 2018
Homes4476106929783
Condos6084129120137130
Closed Transaction in October compared to the Previous Five Octobers

The 44 homes that sold in October of 2023 is 43% below last October. The number of sold homes is 55% below October of 2019 and 47% below October of 2018.

The number of condos sold this October came in 29% below last October. The 60 condos sold last month is 57% below October of 2019 and 54% below October of 2018.

End of October Maui Home Inventory

The charts below show active and pending home inventory by price points and community at the end of October. The end of September and the end of August numbers are provided for additional context.

8/31/239/30/2310/31/23
ActivePendingActive PendingActivePending
<750,00051010912 (+2)6 (-3)
$750,000-$999,9991721181322 (+4)16 (+3)
$1,000,000-$1,499,9993445403844 (+4)39 (+1)
$1,500,000-$1,999,9992118281229 (+1)14 (+2)
$2,000,000-$2,999,999251331935 (+4)7 (-2)
$3,000,000-$4,999,999248267267
$5,000,000-$9,999,999298314314
$10,000,000-$19,999,999140110110
$20,000,000+404040
Totals17312319992214 (+15)93 (+1)
Maui Active and Pending Home Inventory by price point on the last days of August, September and October.
8/31/239/30/2310/31/23
ActivePendingActivePendingActivePending
Haiku177201024 (+4)7 (-3)
Hana12012111 (-1)1
Ka’anapali8511211 0 (-2)
Kahului511587 (+2)6 (-2)
Kapalua735152 (+1)
Kihei1618271331 (+4)11 (-2)
Kula1712251026 (+1)8 (-2)
Lahaina133111105 (+4)
Makawao141512141116 (+2)
Napili/Kahana/Hono…5481103 (+2)
Pukalani838291 (-1)
Sprecks/Paia/Kuau848291 (-1)
Wailea194174204
Wailuku133321232525 (+2)
Maui Active and Pending Home Inventory by district on the last day of August, Septembers and October

Five Notable Things About the End of October Home Inventory

  • Active inventory of homes for sale increased by 7.5% between the end of September and the end of August. The increase in inventory appears to be less from new listings and more from relatively low buyer activity. The number of pending home sales increased by just one between the end of September and the end of October.
  • Looking at active home inventory by price point, all price points below $3,000,000 saw inventory increase. Active inventory was unchanged at all price points above $3,000,000.
  • Pending home sales increased at three price points, decreased at two price points and remained unchanged at all price points over $3,000,000.
  • Looking at active inventory by community, the vast majority of districts did not see any change in active listings. It increased in four communities. Kihei and Haiku saw the biggest increase. Active inventory decreased in just one community.
  • The pending home sales by community proved to be more of a mixed bag. Pending sales decreased in seven communities. The number of pending home sales remained unchanged in two communities, and pending sales increased in four districts. It is notable that the Lahaina district saw the biggest increase in pending home sales with four. To be clear, all of those homes are located in areas outside the burn zone. The majority are in the Launiupoko neighborhood.

End of October Maui Condo Inventory

The charts below provide end of the month active and pending condo inventory by price point and district. It is worth noting that the Wailea continues to a see big bump in pending sales due to condo under contract in La’i Loa at Wailea Hills. The Lai’i Loa bump also impacts pending sales numbers in the $1,500,000 to $4,000,000 price range. That said, the bump is a little less pronounced as the development’s first nine sales recorded on the last two days of October.

8/31/20239/30/2310/31/2023
ActivePendingActivePendingActivePending
<$250,000110200 (-2)
$250,000-$499,999165141113 (-1)10 (-1)
$500,000-$749,9992935322435 (+3)19 (-5)
$750,000-$999,9992524401051 (+11)17 (+7)
$1,000,000-$1,499,9992916371244 (+7)12
$1,500,000-$1,999,9992129293031 (+2)25 (-5)
$2,000,000-$2,999,9991737203919 (-1)33 (-6)
$3,000,000-$4,999,9991215121718 (+6)15 (-2)
$5,000,000-$9,999,999101708 (+1)0
$10,000,000+30103 (+2)1 (+1)
Totals163163192145222 (+30)132 (-12)
Active and Pending Condo Inventory by Price Point on the Last Day of August, September and October.
8/31/20239/30/202310/31/2023
ActivePendingActivePendingActivePending
Ka’anapali22734940 (+6)7 (-2)
Kahului422521 (-4)
Kapalua14011112 (+1)2 (+1)
Kihei5140642567 (+3)27 (+2)
Lahaina100000
Ma’alaea25145 (+4)1 (-3)
Napili/Kahana/Hono…4119471360 (+13)16 (+3)
Wailea2081267930 (+4)70 (-9)
Wailuku89795 (+2)8 (-1)
Active and Pending Condo Inventory by Price Point on the Last Day of August, September and October.

Five Notable Things about the End of October Maui Condo Inventory

  • Active condo inventory increased almost 16% between the last day of September and the last day of October. Pending condo sales fell just over 9% between the end of September and the end of October.
  • Active condo inventory increased in all but three price points. Inventory decreased between $250,000 and $499,999 and the $2,000,000-$2,999,999 price range. There continues to be no inventory under $250,000.
  • Pending condo sales decreased in all but four price points. The only increases in pending sales occurred between $750,000 and $999,999 and over $10,000,000. Pending sales remained unchanged between $1,000,000 and $1,499,999. There continue to be no condos under contract between $5,000,000 and $9,999,999.
  • Looking at active condo inventory by district, almost all districts saw an increase in active listings between the last day of September and the last day of October. Ka’anapali and the Napili, Kahana and Honokowai area experienced the biggest increase. Kahului condo inventory remained unchanged. Lahaina also remained unchanged with no active listings. All condo complexes in Lahaina were impacted in some way by the August fire.
  • Pending condo sales decreased in five districts between the last day of September and the last day of October. Wailea saw the biggest decrease with nine fewer pending sales. That matches the nine sales recorded at La’i Loa. Pending sales increased modestly in Kapalua, Kihei and Napili, Kahana and Honokowai.

Market Thoughts

Needless to say, it was a quiet month of October for the Maui Real Estate market. The market is feeling the combined effects of both the aftermath of the August fires and higher interest rates.

You can see the impact of the fires looking at the data for West Maui. Condo inventory in Ka’anapali is up 82% between the end of August and the end of October. I don’t have any good data on historical monthly condo inventory in Ka’anapali to compare current inventory to normal pre-Covid inventory. That said, the 40 condos listed at the end of October is the highest monthly total that I have for Ka’anapali since I started tracking the data in May of 2022. The previous high is 27 active listings in November of 2022.

The shift in active Ka’anapali Condo listings isn’t the only notable number from the end of October West Maui inventory.

  • Napili, Kahana and Honokowai condo and home inventory is up 47% and 100% respectively since the end of August.
  • Ka’anapali pending home sales went from 5 at the end of August down to 0 at the end of October.
  • As mentioned above, the one outlier is the pending home sales in the Lahaina district. The numbers are up slightly from the end of August.
  • Kapalua, the area on the West Side furthest from the Lahaina fire, hasn’t seen the inventory shifts that the rest of the West side is seeing.

It’s not a surprise that we are seeing an increase in active listings in Ka’anapali. The area was closed for tourism until November 8th. There are still a huge number of residents displaced by the fires living in the hotels. As primarily a second home market, fewer tourists mean fewer potential buyers. The question is whether this market continues to be impacted by its proximity to the fires even as more visitors return down the road.

The fire isn’t the only reason for slower market activity on island. Rates that hit as high as 8% in October deterred buyers. While rates have since come down from their recent peak, you can see the recent impact of high rates in the October closed transactions. A whopping 63.3% of the condos purchases and 50% of the home sales were cash. That is the highest percentage of cash transactions for either property type this year. This is a reflection of more financed buyers being priced out of the market.

One other sign of the impact of high interest rates is evident with something we aren’t seeing in the numbers. As mentioned in our last market update, we attended an event sponsored by the local Realtor’s association. One of the speakers was a broker from Paradise, California. She talked about the big increase in sales activities in communities close to Paradise within a couple of months of the fires. The surge stemmed from Paradise residents using insurance proceeds to buy new homes. As the numbers above show, we just aren’t seeing any big surge in pending sales.

While I know there are people on island who have purchased replacement properties with their insurance proceeds, many others don’t have enough to buy or at least buy what they want or need. The high interest rates are compounding the already high prices.

One last note, It still feels awkward writing about the fires and the impact on the real estate market in more abstract terms. There is a very real human component to our current market. In addition to the insurance challenges, many island residents continue to struggle to find long term rentals in the aftermath of the fire. If you are a Maui Property owner who has long term housing available, please sign up online at Maui Hale Match. If you are looking for other ways to help people impacted by the fires, check out our How to Help Maui post.

A Little Maui Beauty to Brighten This Post

A reprieve from real estate numbers. Hawaii Green Sea Turtles rest on the beach along Maui's North Shore.

Questions, Comments, Need Help Buying or Selling?

Pete Jalbert

Maui Real Estate Blog

Maui Real Estate Market Update Q3 2023 Vol. 1

It’s been a while since we posted one of our Maui market musings. In light of the fires on island in early August, market discussions felt inappropriate. The human impacts far outweighed discussion of inventory and sales volume. It’s been over two months now and feelings still remain raw on island. That said, housing is a huge part of this tragedy. The state of the market merits discussion for our clients.

You will also note that this post is not titled Maui Market Musings and some Roman Numeral. While that post title fulfilled my fondness for alliteration, the subject matter wasn’t super intuitive to the casual reader. We are still ruminating on a new title moving forward, but we are going with the basic October 2023 Maui Market Update for this version.

August and September Market Activity

August 2023August 2022August 2021August 2020August 2019August 2018
Homes 46103133109108123
Condos71100159275133143
New Inventory in August of 2023 and the Previous Five Augusts
September 2023September 2022September 2021September 2020September 2019September 2018
Homes9282130131122107
Condos9874144180174117
New Inventory in September of August 2023 and the Previous Five Septembers

Monthly new inventory for the year was well below last year prior to the fires on the island. That said, it dropped that much further in August. With the situation on the island, many potential sellers delayed the sale of their property or in some cases opted not to sell for the time being.

New listings in September picked up. While still below pre-Covid levels, September Home and Condo listings exceeded last year. That would seem to suggest that more sellers deferred their listings for a month rather than opting not to sell.

August 2023August 2022August 2021August 2020August 2019August 2018
Homes472714482334
Condos411918541819
Cancelled Inventory in August of 2023 and the Previous Five Augusts
September 2023September 2022September 2021September 2020 September 2019September 2018
Homes243522143037
Condos222514512634
Cancelled Inventory in September of 2023 and the Previous Five Augusts

We don’t usually include cancellations in these numbers, but August wasn’t a usual month. Cancellations spiked for a variety of reasons. Homes and condos listed in Lahaina may have been destroyed or rendered inaccessible. Listings in West Maui and Kula cancelled due to limited access and circumstances. Some sellers pulled their homes off the market to house displaced families.

September cancellations came in relatively low. As the start of one of our shoulder seasons, it is typically a month with a relatively high number of cancelled listings. I imagine the lower cancellations may just be due to the fact that the base level of inventory is low. A few of the August cancellations may also have been planned for September only for sellers to accelerate their timelines in light of the situation.

August 2023August 2022August 2021Auguste 2020August 2019Auguest 2018
Homes57631251048489
Condos63105150112131124
New Pending Sales in August of 2023 and the Previous Five Augusts
September 2023September 2022September 2021September 2020September 2019September 2018
Homes43661081108464
Condos4884136123131114
New Pending Sales in September of 2023 and the Previous Five Septembers

August new pending home sales dipped modestly compared to August of 2022. On the other hand, Condo pending sales dipped substantially below the August 2022 numbers. September home and condo pendings both experienced substantial drops compared to both September of 2022 and Pre-Covid era Septembers. The September 2023 condo numbers are particularly striking coming in 54% and 63% lower than 2018 and 2019 respectively.

August 2023August 2022August 2021August 2020August 2019August 2018
Homes5782120929798
Condos97104187111119149
Closed Transactions in August of 2023 and the Previous Five Augusts
September 2023September 2022September 2021September 2020September 2019September 2018
Homes6655110103115179
Condos659617785118120
Closed Transactions in September of 2023 and the Previous Five Septembers

Sales are a lagging indicator of market activity. On the surface, that would suggest that August sales were less likely to be impacted by the fires in August. That said, there were a number of cancelled contracts in the aftermath of the fire. In some cases, those were properties directly impacted by the fire or just buyers who may have had a change of heart in light of the recent events. The August home sales ended up coming in substantially lower then August of 2022 and well below “normal” sales volumes in 2019 and 2018.

I was a little surprised to see September 2023 home sales outpaced September of 2022. That said, sales volume dipped in the fall of 2022 as rising rates weighed on the market. A look back at pre-Covid sales activity provides some additional context with this September’s volume well below 2018 and 2019. Condo sales came in well below any September over the last five years.

End of the September Maui Home Inventory

The charts below show the active and pending home inventory on the last day of September by price point and Community. The last days of July and August are also included to show general inventory trends.

7/31/20238/31/20239/30/2023
ActivePendingActive PendingActivePending
<$750,00041151010 (+5)9 (-1)
$750,000-$999,9992321172118 (+1)13 (-8)
$1,000,000-$1,499,9994544344540 (+6)38 (-7)
$1,500,000-$1,999,9993214211828 (+7)12 (-6)
$2,000,000-$3,000,0003510251331 (+6)9 (-4)
$3,000,000-$4,999,99937924826 (+2)7 (-1)
$5,000,000-$9,999,99938529831 (+2)4 (-4)
$10,000,000-$19,999,99916014011 (-3)0
$20,000,000+504040
Total235114173123199 (+16)92 (-31)
Maui Home Active and Pending Home Inventory by Price Point on the Last Day of the Month of September, August and July.
7/31/20238/31/20239/30/2023
ActivePendingActivePendingActivePending
Haiku21717720 (+3)10 (+3)
Hana12112012 1 (+1)
Ka’anapali1158511 (+3)2 (-3)
Kahului745115 8 (-3)
Kapalua102735 (-2)1 (-2)
Kihei2411161827 (+11)13 (-5)
Kula2010171225 (+8)10 (-2)
Lahaina26613311 (-2)1 (-2)
Makawao2110141512 (-2)14 (-1)
Napili/Kahana/Hono…143548 (+3)1 (-3)
Pukalani74838 2 (-1)
Sprecks/Paia101848 2 (-2)
Wailea23419417 (-2)4
Wailuku1643133321 (+8)23 (-10)
Maui Home Active and Pending Home Inventory by Community on the Last Day of the Month of September, August and July.

Five Notable Things About The End of September Home Inventory

  • Active inventory of homes for sale at the end of September rose by 15%. That comes after a big 26% plunge in active listings at the end of August. Pending sales dropped by 25% at the end of September after an 8% increase in pending sales at the end of August. After a drop in active listings in the immediate aftermath of the fires, listings are increasing now as some properties come back to market and decreased buyer activity as evidenced by the big decrease in pending sales.
  • Looking at active inventory by price point, all price points except the very top of the market saw an increase in active listings. The only reason actives decreased at the high end of the market was cancellations. This is a time of the year when high end properties may withdraw for a month or two to refresh their days on market.
  • Pending sales decreased at all price points except the very top of the market. The only reason high end pending sales didn’t decrease month to month is that you can’t decrease below zero.
  • Shifting to active inventory by community, changes in listing were a lot more variable. Active listings increased in six communities, decreased in four communities and remain unchanged in four communities. Kihei, Wailuku and Kula experienced the biggest increase in active listings.
  • Looking at pending sales by community, the decrease in pending sales is almost island wide. Hana had one new pending sale and Wailea pending sales remained unchanged.

End of September Maui Condo Inventory

7/31/20238/31/20239/30/2023
ActivePendingActivePendingActivePending
<250,00002110 (-1)2 (+1)
$250,000-$499,999161416514 (-2)11 (+6)
$500,000-$749,9994139293532 (+3)24 (-9)
$750,000-$999,9993228252440 (+15)10 (-14)
$1,000,000-$1,499,9993418291637 (+8)12 (-4)
$1,500,000-$1,999,9992636212929 (+8)30 (+1)
$2,000,000-$2,999,9991840173720 (+3)39 (+2)
$3,000,000-$4,999,999121812151217 (+2)
$5,000,000-$9,999,9991121017 (-3)0 (-1)
$10,000,000+30301 (-2)0
Totals193197163163192 (+29)145 (-18)
Maui Active and Pending Condo Inventory by price point on the last day of the month of July, August and September.
7/31/20238/31/20239/30/2023
ActivePendingActivePendingActivePending
Ka’anapali20922734 (+12)9 (+2)
Kahului33422 (-2)5 (+3)
Kapalua16314011 (-3)1 (+1)
Kihei6251514064 (+13)25 (-15)
Lahaina134100 (-1)0
Ma’alaea47251 (-1)4 (-1)
Napili/Kahana/Hono4329411947 (+6)13 (-6)
Wailea2387208126 (+6)79 (-2)
Wailuku94897 (-1)9
Maui Active and Pending Condo Inventory by community on the last day of the month of July, August and September.

Five Notable Things about the End of September Condo Inventory

The charts below provide end of the month active and pending condo inventory by price point and district. It is worth noting that the Wailea pending sales receive a boost from 75 new developer units under contract in La’i Loa at Wailea Hills. As of the end of September, they constitute over 50% of the pending condo sales. These properties went under contract between 2020 and the the first quarter of 2021. Priced from just under $1,500,000 all the way up to over $4,000,000, these long term contracts are also skewing the pending sales upwards in this price range. We should start seeing the very first La’i Loa sales at the end of October.

  • The active inventory of condos on the island at the end of September increased 18% over the last day of August. The number of pending sales on the island at the end of September decreased 11% from the end of August. This comes after both active and pending condo sales decreased significantly from the last day of July to the last day of August.
  • Looking at active condo listings by price point, inventory increased in five price ranges, decreased in four price ranges and remained unchanged in one. The increase in inventory occurred with condos priced between $500,000 and $3,000,000. Active inventory decreased below $500,000 and increased over $5,000,000.
  • Pending condo sales increased at five price points, decreased in four priced points and remained unchanged at one price point. The increase in pending sales was clustered below $500,000 and between $1,500,000 and $5,000,000. The decrease in pending sales occurred primarily between $500,000 and $1,500,000.
  • Looking at condo inventory by community, active inventory increased in four communities, decreased in five communities and remained unchanged in one. Ka’anapali and Kihei both had a big increase in active inventory. The Napili, Kahana and Honokowai area and Wailea also saw healthy bumps in active listings. The decrease in active listings in communities tended to be far more modest.
  • Pending listings decreased in four communities, increased in three communities and remained unchanged in two communities. Kihei had by far the largest drop in pending sales followed by the Napili, Kahana and Honokowai area. Kahului saw the biggest increase in pending sales.

What Does it All Mean?

Last month, we had the opportunity to attend a broker event hosted by the Realtor’s Association of Maui. One of the speakers was a Broker from Paradise, California. She provided a lot of valuable insights based on her own experiences from her community’s tragic fires in 2018. the broker spoke to the rebuild process, federal relief, insurance and more.

The broker also spoke about the impact of the fire on the real estate market. Communities within a short drive of Paradise began to see price increases shortly after the fire. Within a couple of months of the fires, nearby Chico saw a big increase in listings receiving multiple offers. Many of these buyers were displaced residents from Paradise using insurance money to buy new homes.

Will we see a similar phenomenon on Maui? The Broker from Paradise thought we would. We are definitely seeing some displaced residents buying property on other parts of the island. I know first hand of buyers purchasing replacement homes in Kapalua and replacement condos in Kihei and Kahului. That said, I am not sure that the market near Paradise is 100% analogous to the market on Maui.

Maui lost roughly 3% of its housing stock in the Lahaina Fire alone with additional homes lost to fire Upcountry. This exacerbates Maui’s already significant housing shortage. In that respect, like Paradise, there is certainly tremendous need for replacement housing for island residents.

Where things start to differ from Paradise is on the affordability side. Prices in 2023 Maui are substantially higher than the communities near Paradise in 2019. Borrowing costs are also substantially higher. Mortgage rates in early 2019 hovered around 4.5%, while just this week rates crossed the 8% barrier. Plain and simple, insurance proceeds from the fire may not be sufficient for many displaced residents to afford the replacement housing that they need.

Of course, Maui is also a big second home market. There is typically a pretty close tie between visitor numbers and second home demand. Visitor numbers are down substantially since the fires. Areas like Ka’anapali are still closed to tourism as many of the area hotels are hosting displaced residents. We aren’t sure when visitor numbers will come close to what they were prior to the fire. When they do return, how much will rising interest rates and affordability concerns impact second home buyers?

The push and pull between Maui’s incredibly limited supply and what at this point is uncertain demand will determine the market. A world with increased international tensions brings even further unknowns. Oh yeah, and of course 2024 is a Presidential election year. Based on all of the above, I would be wary of anyone who speaks with certainty about the direction of the Maui Real Estate Market. That said, we will continue to provide data so that buyers and sellers can make informed decisions.

A Little Maui Beauty to End This Post on A Good Note

Our beautiful Hana listing glows under the Palm trees on a moonlit night.
Our beautiful Hana listing nestled under the palm trees on a moonlit night.

Questions, Comments, Need Help Buying or Selling?

Pete Jalbert

Maui Real Estate Blog

Haiku Market Update

Time to check in on the real estate market in Haiku, another town on the North Shore of Maui. Haiku town is a rural community spanning a large geographic area.

Located on the windward side of the island, it is a popular community for year round residents. It has also seen a growing number of second home buyers over the last few years.

It’s been a while since our last Haiku market update. This update provides data from the year to date with comparisons made to not just the same time frame of 2022, but also the first half of the year going back to 2018.

This gives a better sense of how the recent market compares to conditions prior to Covid. I also gives some thoughts on the outlook for the rest of the year.

Notable Haiku Home Sale Numbers for The Year to Date

  • Twenty-six homes sold in Haiku between January 1, 2023 and June 14, 2023. The median price of the homes sold is $1,452,500.
  • For the same period of 2022, 52 homes sold with a median price of $1,524,000. Changing composition of sales drove the shift in median as opposed to decreased home values.
  • The lowest priced home sold for $540,000. The 1932 Vintage Hawaii Plantation Style Home sits on a 13,656 square foot lot just up the street from Pauwela Cannery.
  • This was just one of four sales under $1,000,000.
  • The highest price sale for the year to date closed for $4,050,000. The 5 bedroom, 4 bath home offers 3,567 square feet of living space and a pool. It is located on 12.4 acres on the oceanside of Hana Highway.
  • This is one of 8 sales to close for over $2,000,000, and one of three that closed for over $3,000,000.
  • There were 15 land transactions in Haiku between January 1, 2023 and June 14, 2023. The median price of the land listings sold is $867,765.
  • In 2022, 12 pieces of land sold during this same period of January through June. The median price of the land listings sold for that period is $887,500.

Looking at the Haiku Home Market Over The Last Five Years

While I can’t say year to year comparisons are completely without value, the period between 2021 and at least the first half of 2022 was an outlier. For that reason, I wanted to look at the last five years for some additional context, and to specifically compare the current market to “normal” pre-Covid activity.

Sales and New Pending Sales in Haiku between January 1 and June 14th from 2018-2023.
This chart shows home sales and pending home sales from January 1st through June 14th between 2018 and 2023.

It’s been a pretty quiet year for buyer activity in Haiku. Looking at the chart above, 2023 for the year to date is tracking well behind pre-covid levels of sales volume and buyer activity. You need to go all the way back to 2011 (not shown on the chart) to find a year with fewer home sales or pending home sales.

Looking at the Haiku Land Market over the Last Five Years

This chart shows Haiku Land Sales and Pending Land Sales Between January 1 and June 14th over a five year period.

Looking at the chart above, the Haiku land market is also trending behind pre-Covid numbers. That said, it is worth noting that 2018 and 2019 were particularly busy years in terms of transaction volume.

That’s due to the Haiku Town Acres subdivision and Kauhikoa Farms subdivision. Those were new projects that drove sales in 2018 with a number of additional CPR land sales in 2019.

What the Numbers Mean About the Haiku Market

The first question that bears answering is why the big dip in activity in the Haiku market? The answer like with the rest of the Maui market is a combination of constrained inventory and decreased demand due to lower affordability.

On the supply side, the inventory level of active Haiku homes has ranged from the high teens to just below thirty active listings since the start of the year. Back in the couple of years prior to Covid, the inventory of active Haiku Homes for Sale usually came in somewhere around 45 active listings. In other words, the inventory this year’s been 33% or more below normal.

From an affordability side, increased prices and increased mortgage rates thinned the pool of buyers. It’s hard to quantify the decrease in demand. We just don’t have any good data. That said, we can speak a little bit about how much affordability decreased over the last few years.

This graph shows the percentage of homes sold in Haiku for under $1,000,000. This is for the period between January 1 and June 14th over a five year period.
This chart looks at the percentage of homes in Haiku that sold for less than $1,000,000 over the last five years. The data is based on sales during the period between January 1 and June 14th over that time.

The chart above speaks for itself. Between January 1st and June 14th 2018, 72.34% of all the sales in Haiku closed for less than $1,000,000. Between January 1st and June 14th of 2023, only 15.38% of all listings sold for less than $1,000,000.

Appreciation in values is a big driver for this change, but not the only factor. Increased prices and increased mortgage rates make it extremely difficult for the average “step-up” buyer. That means fewer entry level homes are coming to market via sellers looking for bigger homes.

Haiku’s higher end real estate market underwent a pretty substantial shift over the last five years. Pre-covid, there was substantial inventory for sale over $2,000,000, but the number of properties sold were few and the days on market were long.

This chart shows the percentage of homes sold for $2,000,000 or more over the last five years. The data is based on sales closed between January 1st and June 14th.

The chart above shows a shift in the Haiku luxury home market. The percentage of homes sold over $2,000,000 during the first half of the year is up substantially from the Pre-Covid era and even 2021.

Days on market and inventory in this price range are both down as well. The data shows that there are a substantially higher number of affluent buyers in the Haiku market.

I just wanted to provide a couple of quick notes on the land numbers. I already provided some context on why the current land sales are well below 2018 and 2019. Like the Haiku home market, the land market is seeing a higher percentage of high end sales.

One third of the transactions for both the year to date for this year and the same period last year sold for over $1,000,000. In 2018 and 2019, those numbers were 8% and 0% respectively.

Finally, this isn’t reflected in the numbers, but land in Haiku is becoming scarcer. No projects like Haiku Town Acres or Kauhikoa Farms are on the horizon. Peahi Farms is largely sold. The bulk of the sales going forward will likely be individual lot sales, CPRs or smaller subdivisions.

Outlook for the Rest of The Year in the Haiku Real Estate Market

As reticent as I am to make forecasts these days, I can’t foresee any big changes in the Haiku market during the rest of the year. No significant influx of inventory appears to be imminent at this point.

Meanwhile, it seems as if it would take even higher mortgage rates or some sort of additional economic headwind to significantly curtail demand.

For sellers, the low inventory is to your benefit, but there is still some nuance to this market. Affordability and construction costs have fewer buyers looking at fixer-uppers.

There is also some variability in conditions depending on price points. We have seen days on market creeping up at the lower price points as entry level buyers struggle with affordability.

Buyers entering the market will of course continue to be challenged by lower inventory levels. The market does not appear to be as competitive as it was in 2022, but well-priced properties in good condition can still attract multiple buyers.

You can search the current inventory of Haiku Homes for Sale and Haiku Land for Sale on MauiRealEstate.com.

Buying or Selling in Haiku?

Pete Jalbert

Maui Real Estate Blog

Maui Real Estate Market Update Q2 2023 Vol. 2

Maui Market Musings Volume XXVII looks at all the data on real estate activity on Maui in May. It includes information on new listings, pending sales and closed transactions. It also looks at end of the month inventory levels by price point and community. The numbers show a surprising surge in pending sales in what can be a quieter month for buyer activity on Maui. Keep reading for all of the details.

May Market Activity

The tables below show new Inventory, new pending sales and closed transactions for the month of May. The previous five years are shown for additional context. The numbers will show that new listing and new pending activity in the home market came closer to previous years. The gap between this year and previous years for May condo activity remained significant.

May 2023May 2022May 2021May 2020May 2019May 2018
Homes9711413595106115
Condos97140187135160 180
New inventory in May of 2023 compared to the previous five months of May.

By recent standards, new home listings weren’t too far below normal. The 97 homes listed exceeds new inventory for any of the previous four months this year. It is 15% below last May and 8.5% and 16% below May of 2019 and 2018 respectively. New condo inventory continues to lag. The 97 condos listed is 31% below last May. It is 39% and 46% below 2019 and 2018 respectively.

May 2023May 2022May 2021May 2020May 2019May 2018
Homes76731107410795
Condos9111623164134142
New Pending Sales in May of 2023 compared to the previous five months of May.

This was also the busiest month for new pending home sales this year. The 76 pending sales is actually 4% higher than last May. It is 29% and 20% below May of 2019 and 2018 respectively. The 91 new pending condo sales is 22% below last May. This May’s pending condo sales are 32% and 36% below May 2019 and May 2018 respectively.

May 2023May 2022May 2021May 2020May 2019 May 2018
Homes699411640125104
Condos8915324254145171
Closed Transaction in May of 23 compared to the previous five months of May.

Sales are a lagging indicator of market demand. The 69 homes sold is 27% below last May. It is 45% and 34% below May of 2019 and 2018 respectively. The 89 condos sold is 42% below May of 2022. This May’s closed condo transactions came in 39% and 48% below May 2019 and May 2018.

End of May Home Inventory

The charts below show active and pending home inventory in May by price point and community. They also include the numbers from the previous two months to show the general direction of the inventory.

3/31/234/40/235/31/23
ActivePendingActivePendingActivePending
<$750,00086728 (+1)9 (+7)
$750,000-$999,9991935242520 (-4)30 (+5)
$1,000,000-$1,499,9994731503236 (-14)39 (+7)
$1,500,000-$1,999,9992911301728 (-2)15 (-2)
$2,000,000-$2,999,999389301230 16 (+4)
$3,000,000-$4,999,9993612381543 (+5) 11 (-4)
$5,000,000-$9,999,99935833738 (+5)7
$10,000,000-$19,999,99912313210 (-3)0 (-2)
$20,000,000+60506 (+1)0
Totals230115230112219 (-11)127 (+15)
Active and Pending home listings by price point on the last day of the month between March and May.
3/31/234/30/235/31/23
ActivePendingActivePendingActivePending
Haiku264181016 (-2)10
Hana12110313 (+3)3
Ka’anapali9511415 (+4)1
Kahului8129113 (-6)14 (+3)
Kapalua10110211 (+1)3 (+1)
Kihei2416231317 (-6)15 (+2)
Kula1613191520 (+1)10 (-5)
Lahaina16314422 (+8)5 (+1)
Makawao231020142010 (-4)
Napili/Kahana/Hono…14317214 (-3)5 (+3)
Pukalani64725 (-2)6 (+4)
Sprecks/Paia92929 3 (+1)
Wailea15819420 (+1)4
Wailuku2926302321 (-7)32 (+9)
Active and Pending Home Listings by Community on the last day of the month between March and May.

Five Notable Things About the End of May Home Inventory

  • Active inventory at the end of May decreased 5% from the end of April. Pending Home sales increased 13% at the end of May compared to the end of April.
  • Looking at active inventory by price point, four price points increased in inventory, four decreased and one remained unchanged. The $1,000,000 to $1,499,999 price range experienced the biggest drop in inventory with 28% fewer listings at the end of May compared to the end of April. The $750,000 to $999,999 price range and $10,000,000 to $19,999,999 price ranges also had notable drops.
  • Looking at pending sales by price point, pending sales increased in four price ranges, decreased in three price ranges and remain unchanged in two. All price ranges under $1,500,000 showed a substantial increase in pending sales. The $3,000,000 to $5,000,000 range experienced the biggest decrease in pending sales.
  • Pivoting to the change in active listings at the community level, end of month active listings increased in six communities, decreased in six communities and remained unchanged in two. Lahaina’s active inventory increased the most. Kahului, Kihei and Wailuku experienced the biggest drops in active listings.
  • End of the month pending listings increased in seven communities, decreased in two communities and remained unchanged in four communities. Pendings increased the most in Wailuku, followed by Pukalani and Kahului. The decrease in pending sales occurred in Makawao and Kula.

End of the Month Condo Inventory

The charts below provide end of the month active and pending condo inventory by price point and district. It is worth noting that the Wailea pending sales receive a boost from 75 new developer units under contract in La’i Loa at Wailea Hills. These properties went under contract between 2020 and the the first quarter of 2021. Priced from just under $1,500,000 all the way up to over $4,000,000, these long term contracts are also skewing the pending sales upwards in this price range.

3/31/234/30/235/31/23
ActivePendingActivePendingActivePending
<$250,00002115 (+4)1
$250,000-$499,9991410141313 (-1)12 (-1)
$500,000-$749,9994827463246 30 (-2)
$750,000-$999,9993231263832 (+6)36 (-2)
$1,000,000-$1,499,9992731222622 28 (+2)
$1,500,000-$1,999,9992442254024 (-1)40
$2,000,000-$2,999,9991738163914 (-2)43 (+4)
$3,000,000-$4,999,999151712171217
$5,000,000-$9,999,99913212210 (-2)7 (+5)
$10,000,000+604040
Totals196200178208182 (+4)214 (+6)
Last day of the month active and pending condo inventory by price point for March through May.
3/30/234/30/235/31/23
ActivePendingActivePendingActivePending
Ka’anapali2311221220 (-2)13 (+1)
Kahului40448 (+4)2 (-2)
Kapalua13710511 (+1)7 (+2)
Kihei5949544865 (+11)50 (+2)
Lahaina176137134 (-3)
Ma’alaea54665 (-1)6
Napili/Kahana/Hono…4325412538 (-3)30 (+5)
Wailea2789249119 (-5)95 (+4)
Wailuku59493 (-1)7 (-2)
End of the month active and pending condo inventory by community for March through May.

Five Notable Things About the End of May Condo Inventory

  • Active and pending condo listings increased modestly from the end of April to the end of May. There are just around 2.2% more active listings and 2.9% more pending listings.
  • Looking at changes in active listings by price range, actives increased in only two price ranges, remained unchanged in four price ranges and decreased in four price ranges. The increase in active inventory occurred under $250,000 and between $750,000 and $999,999. Decreases in active listings were modest at the price points where they occurred.
  • Pending listings decreased at three price ranges, increased in three price ranges and remained unchanged in four price ranges. The drop in pending sales occurred between $250,000-$999,999. The sharpest increase in pending sales occurred between $5,000,000 and $9,999,999 followed by the $2,000,000 to $2,999,999 price range.
  • At a community level, active listings increased in three areas, decreased in five and remained unchanged in one. The number of active Kihei Condos for sale and Kahului condos for sale increased the most from the end of April.
  • Pending listings increased from the end of April in five communities, decreased in three communities and remained unchanged in one. The biggest increase in pending sales occurred in the Wailea/Makena area and the Napili/Kahana/Honokowai area. Lahaina had the most notable drop in end of the month pending sales.

Some Thoughts on the Numbers above and the State of The Maui Market

Every time I log into our Realtor database, the front page shows me the current number of pending sales for homes, condos, land and commercial properties. Throughout our winter busy season, the total number of pending sales stayed below 400. With our busy season behind us, I thought it would be unlikely to see us breach the 400 barrier anytime soon. Needless to say, it surprised me when we crossed 400 and went all the way up into above 410 pending sales in the middle of May.

As the numbers show above, new pending home sales are playing a bigger role than condo sales in the recent increase. The data also shows that the increase in pending sales is driven by activity close to and below the median sales price. Looking at community level data, the surge in pending sales is not driven by the resort markets. Places like Wailuku, Kahului and Kihei led the way.

So what’s driving this bump in homebuyer activity? We typically don’t see a seasonal surge in the Spring like the mainland. Our busiest times for transactions usually correlate more closely with a higher number of visitors. Does the increase in pending home sales correlate with the recent increase in home inventory? Is the new supply satiating pent up demand? It is hard to say at this point, but there is some anecdotal evidence. Continued price increases throughout the winter point to more demand than supply. It would make sense that there were buyers there to absorb the recent increase in new listings.

It will be interesting to see if we continue to see more new home inventory or if May was an anomalous month. The market remains unpredictable and one month doesn’t make a trend.

With pending sales back below 400, there are already some signs of cooling from the recent surge. Higher interest rates due to both more persistent inflation and the recent debt ceiling stand off continue to undercut affordability. The spike in rates last fall really cooled some of the busier communities and price ranges for new pending home sales last month.

About the only prediction I am willing to make at this point is that year to year comparisons with last year should become more favorable. Activity cooled in the second half of 2022 under rising interest rates resulting in a lower baseline for future comparisons. That’s why we include 2019 and 2018 data when comparing new pending sales, new inventory and closed transactions. 2022 was an anomalous year, and 2021 and 2020 were complete outliers. 2019 and 2018 are ultimately more relevant when comparing current conditions to that of a “normal” market. Moving forward, we will continue to do our best to keep you abreast of current market conditions on Maui.

A Little Maui Beauty to Brighten This Post

A drone shot shows the sun starting to set. Our vacant land listing in Palauea is in the foreground.
The sun setting into the Pacific with our office’s lot listing in the One Palauea Bay neighborhood in the foreground.

Questions, Comments, Need Help Buying or Selling?

Pete Jalbert