First High Surf Advisory?

A new North/Northwest swell will start to grace the Hawaiian islands overnight. The surf may come close to the threshold of 15 foot faces that warrants a high surf advisory. Typically, we experience our first advisory sometime in late September. However, we have yet to have large advisory size waves hit our North Shores this season as of the 13th of November. This is approaching three standard deviations from the statistical norm. Smaller surf conditions are somewhat typical for a La Nina year such as this one. While the waves have been smaller by Hawaiian standards, the ocean is still quite powerful. Beach goers along northern shores should exercise caution as the surf comes up tomorrow. For more experienced water people, enjoy the waves. Whether it hits advisory level or not, this is likely to be the biggest swell to date for our winter surf season.