Maui Real Estate Blog

Kapalua September 2022 Market Update

By some margin, 2021 was the busiest year ever for transaction volume at the Kapalua Resort. Now that we are two-thirds of the way through 2022, we thought it might be a good time to check on market activity in this resort community located on Maui’s northwest coastline. This update looks at sales volume, pricing and more. It also looks at the outlook for the rest of the year and a slightly more long range outlook as the market slowly transitions back to “normal”.

Kapalua Home Market Numbers

The numbers below represent notable numbers for year to date home sales activity in Kapalua through September 5th, 2022.

  • Maui Realtors reported 12 home sales over the last eight plus months. That is 50% of the 24 sales reported during the same period of 2021, and 25% below the 16 sales during the same period of 2019.
  • Limited inventory played a pretty big role in the decreased sales volume compared to last year. While reduced demand may also be a factor, that is harder to show via the statistics.
  • Two out of the twelve sales closed for over asking price. An additional four sales closed for full price meaning 50% of the transactions closed for asking price or higher. It is striking that only one of the 24 homes sold in the first eight months of 2021 sold for over asking price and only 3 more sales closed for asking price or above. Back in 2019, none of the year to date sales sold for full price let alone asking price.
  • Of the twelve transactions, Realtors reported that seven of the buyers paid cash.
  • The median price of the homes sold in Kapalua this year is $5,025,000. That is 25.31% higher than median of $4,010,000 for homes sold during the same period of 2021. It is 105% higher than the median sales price of $2,450,000 during the same period of 2019.
  • The average price of the homes sold in Kapalua this year is $5,300,000. That compares to $4,886,354 and $2,364,000 during the same periods of 2021 and 2019 respectively. That means this year’s average is 8.47% and 124.2% higher than 2021 and 2019 respectively.
  • The lowest priced home to sell for the year to date in Kapalua closed for $2,750,000. The 3 bedroom, 3.5 bathroom home in Pineapple Hill with 3,670 square feet of living space is located on a 10,703 square foot lot.
  • The highest price sale for the year to date closed in August. The Pineapple Hill home has 6 bedrooms, 6.5 bathrooms and 7,784 square feet of living space on just under a half acre of land.
Home sales by subdivision in Kapalua over the last five years for the period between January 1 and September 5th.
Home sales by subdivision in the Kapalua Resort. This chart shows sales during the period between January 1st and September 5th over the last five years.
  • Pineapple Hill tops the list for busiest subdivision for sales activity this year. Five homes closed in Pineapple Hill with two additional homes closing in Pineapple Hill Estates. Three homes closed in Plantation Estates and two homes closed in Mahana Estates. There’s been no inventory and no sales in Kapalua Place. There is one pending sale in Honolua Ridge.

Kapalua Condo Market Numbers

The numbers below are the most notable from Kapalua Condo sales through September 5th. It includes only condos in the complexes that are formerly located within the Kapalua resort and does not include condo developments that border Kapalua.

  • Maui Realtors reported 51 condos sold for the year to date. That is 51.89% below the 106 sales reported through the same period of 2021. It is 15.9% more than the 44 closes during the same period of 2019.
  • Again, it is pretty clear that constrained inventory played a role in the substantial decrease in sales compared to last year. It’s difficult to estimate the role decreased demand played in the lower number of sales. That said, it is worth pointing out that we had more sales this year with far less inventory than we did in 2019.
  • Of the 51 sales, 12 or 23.53% sold for over asking price and 28 or 54.9% sold for asking price or above. By comparison, 3.77% and 30.19% of all 2021 sales over the same period sold for over asking price and at or above asking price respectively. Over the same period of 2019, 4.55% of all condos sold over asking with 34.09% selling for asking price or above.
  • Of the 51 condos that sold thus far this year, Realtors reported that 24 out of 51 or 47.05% were cash transactions.
  • The median price of the condos sold for the year to date is $1,450,000. Over the same period last year, the median was $1,145,000. That’s a 26.64% difference. The median during the same period of 2019 was $917,500. That is a 58% difference.
  • The average price of condos sold in Kapalua through September 5th is $2,438,421. During the same period of 2021, the average price was 29.07% lower at $1,889,224. The difference in average between 2022 and the same period of 2019 is 15.50%. During that period, the average was $2,111,034.
  • The lowest priced condo sale thus far this year in Kapalua closed for $940,000. That price bought the new owner a 1 bedroom, 2 bath with 972 square feet of living space in Kapalua Golf Villas.
  • That was one of just three condo sales below $1,000,000!
  • Kapalua’s highest condo sale for the year to date closed for $8,000,000 at Montage Kapalua Bay. That unit includes 3 bedrooms, 3.5 bathrooms and 2,904 square feet of living space.
Kapalua Condo Sales by Condo Complex. This chart shows sales between January 1st and September 5th between 2018 and 2022.
Condo Sales by condo complex in Kapalua. This chart shows sales between January 1 and September 5th between 2018 and 2022.
  • Kapalua Golf Villas was the busiest condo complex for transactions with 17 total sales. Montage and Kapalua Bay Villas came next with 9 sales each.

Outlook for the Rest of The Year in Kapalua

It’s time to get out the old crystal ball to see what we might expect in terms of sales activity in Kapalua for the rest of the year. Ok, ok maybe we will skip the crystal ball and try to use some other metrics that might give us some sense of market activity. When trying to gauge current market conditions, I like to look at demand for new listings and inventory.

Last month, five new condo listings came to market and one home came to market. Of the five condo listings, two were under contract in less than 10 days. That would appear to suggest that there is still some demand in the condo market. While overall demand on island might be feeling a crunch from interest rates, Kapalua is less likely to be rate sensitive. Keep in mind that just under 60% of this year’s home sales and just under 50% of this year’s condo sales in Kapalua were cash transactions.

The current inventory of listings remains limited. There are only 11 active condo listings in Kapalua and 4 pending sales as of September 5th. When you break it down by condo complex. There are no active listings in the Ironwoods or Coconut Grove. Both Kapalua Ridge and Kapalua Golf Villas have one active listing each and the Bay Villas has two listings. Only the Ritz Carlton Residences with three listings and Montage with four listings have any significant depth of inventory. On the home front, there are just five active home listings with one pending home sale.

One last factor to consider is seasonality. The charts below shows Kapalua home and condo pending sales by month in 2022, 2021, 2019 and 2018. In all of those years, the last four months of the year tend to see fewer properties going under contract.

New Pending chome sales by month in Kapalua between 2018 and 2022
New Pending home sales by month in Kapalua between 2018 and 2022. 2020 is omitted from the post due to the anomalies from the onset of the Covid-19 Pandemic.
New pending Condo sales by month in Kapalua between 2018 and 2022
New Pending Condo Sales by Month in Kapalua between 2018 and 2022. 2020 is excluded due to the anomalous data.

Based on the inventory, demand and past seasonality, I would expect that sales activity for the rest of the year will be quieter than the first eight months. That said, I would venture there should be some demand for the limited inventory particularly in the the lower price points of the condo market.

Longer Term Kapalua Outlook

I mentioned at the start of the Kapalua discussion, that Kapalua was one of the markets that saw the greatest increases in demand over the last couple of years. That comes after a decade where Kapalua saw lesser demand than other resort markets. While Kapalua has always had its share of loyal fans, it tended to be a slower market. Days on market were longer and sales volume was lower. That started to shift a little at the end of the decade and it changed completely with Covid. As the market slowly moves toward normal, what does “normal” actually look like?

Maui Prep helped fuel part of Kapalua’s Covid period boom. The school was able to scale up enrollment to accommodate a large number of affluent families who took advantage of the work from anywhere movement. Many of those families ended up buying homes in Kapalua or other nearby areas of West Maui. The question of how much ongoing demand there will be from affluent remote workers remains something of an unknown.

I recently had the opportunity to pose the question about the future of the Kapalua market to an agent who lives and works in the community. I thought her answer offered some interesting insights. While Maui Prep came up, she also discussed the role of the Montage and the Ritz. She pointed out that the closure of the Kapalua Bay Hotel in 2006 and construction projects at the Ritz limited places to stay and the overall appeal of the area during the latter half of the 2000s. The foreclosure on the Ritz Carlton Club in 2013 didn’t help. When the Ritz Carlton Club redeveloped and rebranded as the Montage in 2014, it brought in new vacationers. Many of them developed loyalty to Kapalua and eventually became second home owners.

With those two anchor properties, the other agent thought this would provide a solid foundation for future demand in the community. For this and other reasons, she is very much a Kapalua Bull over the long term. It was an interesting answer and one I thought might be worth sharing with our readers.

Contact The Maui Real Estate Team

We will continue to provide periodic updates on the Kapalua market on this blog. If you are interested in Kapalua Properties, you can find the current inventory of Kapalua Homes for Sale and Kapalua Condos for Sale on MauiRealEstate.com. Contact The Maui Real Estate Team if you have questions on any of the listings or need assistance buying or selling a property in Kapalua.

Pete Jalbert

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