It’s May on Maui and time for another Market Musings. This week is a little bit more of a meat and potatoes affair as we look at notable numbers from the April Statistics and try to get a better pulse on current market conditions. National Real Estate numbers are showing signs of slightly slower activity due to current interest rates. It feels like we may be feeling something similar on Maui. Do the numbers support my anecdotal feelings? Keep reading to find out what I discovered.
Notable Numbers From the April Statistics
The April statistics are out and they speak to the strong buyer demand in January-March. I compiled these numbers using sales just from the island of Maui. I filtered out Molokai and Lanai.
- Maui Realtors reported 101 home sales. That is down 22% from last year’s 129 sales.
- Tighter inventory is a significant factor in the decreased sales numbers. At the end of April, the Realtors Association of Maui reported 176 homes on the market. That is 24% lower than last year at this time and 15% lower than the end of March 2022.
- Competition remained high for the limited inventory. Of the homes sold, 34% sold for over asking price and 56% sold for asking price or higher.
- That’s stronger than last April’s numbers of 26% over asking and 53% for asking price and above, but lower than March 2022’s 35% sold for over asking and 59% sold for asking or higher.
- The median price of the homes sold was $1,250,000. That represents a significant 28% increase over last April’s median of $975,000.
- The increase in median can be attributed in part to price increases and also limited inventory at lower price points. Only 8 homes sold for less than $800,000 in the month of April.
- The average price of the homes sold was $2,189,247. That is a more modest increase of 8% over last April’s average of $2,015,101.
- The high average prices are due to robust luxury market activity. Three homes sold for $10,000,000 or higher. A total of 9 homes sold for more than $5,000,000 and 25 for more than $2,000,000.
- The highest priced home closed for $18,750,000. That was for a 4,800 square foot luxury home with a 600 square foot cottage on just over a half acre right on Keawakapu Beach in South Kihei.
- Maui Realtors Reported 168 condos sold in April. That is down 36% from April of 2021.
- Inventory played a big part in the decreased activity compared to the year prior. There were only 158 condos on the market at the end of April. That is 50% of the number for sale at the end of April 2021 and 6% below the end of March 2022.
- As with homes, competition for condos on the market remained high. Of the condos sold, 41% sold for over asking and 62% sold for asking price or above.
- That is a substantial increase over last April’s numbers of 9% sold over asking and 36% sold for asking price or above, but a little lower than March when 43% sold for over asking and 70% sold for asking price or above.
- The median price of condos sold in April is $857,500. That is 23% higher than the median in April 2021.
- Average sales price for a Maui condo in April comes in at $1,223,669. That is 28% higher than the median in April 2021.
- Like the luxury home market, the luxury condo market remained busy. That helped boost the average condo sales price. There was a single condo sale over $10,000,000. Four condos sold for over $5,000,000 and 34 condos sold for $1,500,000 or higher.
- The highest priced condo closed for $12,000,000. That was for a ground floor 3 bedroom in the D building at Wailea Beach Villas.
What’s Happening Now?
Sales Statistics look backwards. As mentioned above, the strong April numbers reflect buyer demand from February, March and to a limited extent Early April. Since that time, Interest rates broke the 5% barrier and we transitioned out of peak tourist season.
The one relevant statistic to the present is inventory. Supply was lower at the end of April than it was at the end of March. The first five days of the month did not bring a torrent of new inventory. That’s one area where we differ from the overall national market. The National inventory of homes for sale slowly increased during the spring with healthier gains over the last week. Plain and simple, the supply side of the Maui market remains severely constrained.
What about demand? There are suggestions in the the April stats that demand has been cooling slightly. Over asking sales prices and full price sales both decreased from March. Is there anything we can tease out from the current inventory?
In Market Musings Volume 8, we looked at the percentage of new listings going under contract in 10 days or less between April 6th and 13th. It came in at 46%. Between April 19th and April 26th, 35 out of 82 listings are under contract in 10 days or less. That is roughly 43%. It is worth noting 2 additional properties went under contract only to cancel escrow.
While I don’t have a basis for past comparison, I also looked at price reductions in the market. Out of the 160 active home listings on May 5th, 59 or 37% reduced their price . Of the 130 active condo listings, 19 or right around 15% reduced their price. This can be a baseline of comparison for future Musings.
I saw the quote below and had to work into a Musings. It was such a good analogy. I could practically feel the blister forming on the roof of my mouth from a Hot Pocket I consumed in 1991.
It also resonated with me as I watched the hot sheet over the last ten days. It sure seemed like not all parts of the Maui Real Estate Market are at the same level of frothiness. That’s clearly the case when comparing homes to condos. Condos have less inventory and far fewer price reductions overall.
Within the home market, I looked at the price reductions and sorted them by community. Kula and Haiku have the highest percentage of active inventory that’s dropped their price one or more times. They both clock in with 42% of the active inventory having dropped their price.
While this validates some of my expectations. I will say this is something of a flawed metric. While Haiku has had quite a few price reductions, there are only 13 active listings. Well priced properties can still sell pretty quickly. On the other end of the spectrum only 8% of the active inventory in Ka’anapali made a price reduction to date. That would seem to suggest strong demand. That said, the average days on market for the active Ka’anapali listings exceeds 100 days.
Overall, the market remains pretty darn strong and inventory remains really low, but there is a hint of nuance to things. Some parts of the market still feel hot like earlier this winter, others are just warm. The slight cooling likely can be attributed to the significant rise in mortgages rates. Rates continue to rise slowly and other economic headwinds like the recent stock market plunge could threaten demand. Will decreased demand change the trajectory of the market or will the low inventory continue to be the determining factor in market conditions? I will keep you posted in future editions.
A Side of Maui Beauty With the Stats
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