Maui Real Estate Market Update Q1 2023 Vol. 2

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This is the 23rd edition of our Maui Market musings. We started this series of posts just over a year ago. Our goal was to try to look at market statistics that provide a better indication of current market conditions. Sales figures can lag behind current market dynamics. We wanted to focus on supply and current demand in what was a more dynamic market. The market slowed quite a bit over the last year, but market conditions are far from straight forward. Keep reading below to learn more about January market activity, active and pending listings and information on sales price vs. list price.

January Market Activity

What type of market did we see in the past month? How many homes and condos came to market, how many went under contract and how many sold? Data from the previous 5 years provides some context.

New Inventory

January 23January 22January 21January 20January 19January 18
Homes66117104133135134
Condos113195197164197215
New Inventory during the month of January over the last six years

Looking at the chart above, new inventory is well below normal. Not just compared to the last couple of years but particularly compared to January in the three years prior to the start of the pandemic. New home inventory is almost 44% below last January and over 50% lower than any January between 2018 and 2020. Condo inventory wasn’t off quite as much. It is 42% lower than last year and anywhere between 30% and 47% lower than January of 2018, 2019 and 2020.

Constrained inventory may be a challenge for a while. The low interest rates of the last couple of years have have potential Sellers that might be looking to step up to a larger home or downsize staying put. Other potential sellers are reticent to list with limited replacement inventory available.

Pending Sales

January 23January 22January 21January 20January 19January 18
Homes54901208998106
Condos90177243133153162
Monthly New Pending Sales in January Over the Last Six Years

January typically marks the first full month of our winter buying season. This period that runs from Christmas to mid-April coincides with peak visitor season. After a quiet fall, there was some question as to whether we might see a resumption of normal or at least something closer to normal buyer activity as we enter busy season. Thus far, that does not appear to be the case. Pending home sales are off 40% from last year and anywhere between 39% and 49% below January during 2018-2020. Pending condo sales are down 49% from last year and anywhere between 32% and 44% below 2018-2020.

Closed Transactions

January 23January 22January 21January 20January 19January 18
Homes599194816183
Condos52151114124125120
Monthly January Sales Over the Last Six Years

The sales numbers are a lagging indicator. For the most part, they tend to reflect contracts agreed upon in November and December. The data above reinforces what we noted in previous editions of our market musings. It was a slow fall, particularly for condo sales.

Home sales are 35% below last year and anywhere between 3% and 29% below January 2018-2020. On the condo front, this January’s sales are a whopping 65% below last year and between 57% and 58% below January 2018, 2019 and 2020.

End of Maui January Home Inventory

The charts below provide end of the month active and pending home inventory by price point and district around Maui.

11/30/2212/31/221/30/23
ActivePendingActivePendingActivePending
<$750,00051461010 (+4)11 (+1)
$750,000-$999,9993125252821 (-4)25 (-3)
$1,000,000-$1,499,9996128782071 (-7)30 (+10)
$1,500,000-$1,999,9992817361133 (-3)9 (-2)
$2,000,000-$2,999,9993411371242 (+5)7 (-5)
$3,000,000-$4,999,99932731932 (+1)10 (+1)
$5,000,000-$9,999,99923927827 6 (-2)
$10,000,000-$19,999,99914014016 (+2)0
$20,000,000+51425 (+1)1 (-1)
Total233112258100257 (-1)99 (-1)
Maui active and pending home listings by price point on the last day of the month from November, December and January
11/30/2212/31/221/31/23
ActivePendingActivePendingActivePending
Haiku291029726 (-3)7
Hana1001019 (-1)1
Ka’anapali929310 (+1)5 (+2)
Kahului1613161313 (-3)11 (-2)
Kapalua53537 (+2)1 (-2)
Kihei311539732 (-7)17 (+10)
Kula2212211021 11 (+1)
Lahaina1513181119 (+1)9 (-2)
Makawao11735431 (-4)6 (+2)
Napili/Kahana/Hono93133131 (-2)
Pukalani1037311 (+4)4 (+1)
Sprecks/Paia73918 (-1)1
Wailea16413616 (+3)3 (-3)
Wailuku3219252530 (+5)17 (-8)
A comparison of active and pending home listings by district for the last days of the month from November, December and January. It does not include all communities on Maui.

Three Things to Note About the End of January Home Inventory

  • Overall, there was remarkably little change in active and pending sales since the end of December. Island wide there was only one fewer pending listing and one fewer active listing. Have I mentioned that January is usually the start of busy season? This is not the type of month to month shift you would expect with more seasonal activity.
  • Drilling down by price point, a little more change is evident. The price ranges between $750,000-$1,500,000 tend to have the highest percentage of financed transactions. That range experienced higher inventory and decreased pendings through much of the fall due to higher rates. With rates lower through much of January, inventory is starting to decrease again. The $1,000,000-$1,500,000 price saw the biggest increase in pending sales of any price point.
  • Home buyer activity in the resorts remained quiet. Kapalua and Wailea both saw a decrease in pending sales and a small increase in active inventory. Ka’anapali inventory increased with a couple of additional pending sales reported.

End of January Maui Condo Inventory

The charts below provide end of the month active and pending condo inventory by price point and district. It is worth noting that the Wailea pending sales receive a boost from 75 new developer units reserved in La’i Loa at Wailea Hills. These properties went under contract between 2020 and the the first quarter of 2021. Priced from just under $1,500,000 all the way up to over $4,000,000, these long term contracts are also skewing the also pending sales upwards in this price range. Paradise Ridge Estates is another new development in Kihei with 18 pending sales based on contracts signed between 2018 and the first quarter of 2022.

11/30/2212/31/221/30/23
ActivePendingActivePendingActivePending
<$250,00014221 (-1)2
$250,000-$499,9991914121614 (+2)11 (-5)
$500,000-$749,9994333382549 (+11)31 (+6)
$750,000-$999,9992829422739 (-3)42 (+15)
$1,000,000-$1,499,9993124322129 (-3)32 (+11)
$1,500,000-$1,999,9992128262930 (+4)35 (+6)
$2,000,000-$2,999,9991839183617 (-1)40 (+4)
$3,000,000-$4,999,9991117101811 (+1) 17 (-1)
$5,000,000-$9,999,99912214012 (-2)2 (+2)
$10,000,000+304040
Totals187190198174206 (+8)212 (+38)
A comparison of end of the month active and pending condo sales by price point from November 22, December 22 and January 23.
11/30/2212/31/221/31/23
ActivePendingActivePendingActivePending
Ka’aanapali25422924 (+2)12 (+3)
Kahului55433 (-1)4 (+1)
Kapalua14212313 (+1)6 (+3)
Kihei5361614565 (+4)72 (+27)
Lahaina148111212 (+1)9 (-3)
Ma’alaea485557 (+2)
Napili/Kahana/Hono3919501650 14 (-2)
Wailea/Makena2385277926 (-1)81 (+2)
Wailuku88447 (+3)6 (+2)
Active and Pending Condo inventory by district in Maui at the end of November and December 22 and January 2023. This chart does not include all districts on island.

Three Things to Note About The End of January Condo Activity

  • The end of January condo numbers do show more of a seasonal shift with a 21.83% increase in pending sales over the end of December. It also appears as if more sellers are coming to market with active listings increasing despite the increased pending sales.
  • Drilling down by price point, the increase in pending sales is pretty broad based with only two price ranges showing fewer pending sales and two price points unchanged.
  • Looking at the districts, Kihei is by far and away the focal point of increased condo sales. Kihei pending sales increased 60% since the end December. Pending sales throughout the rest of the districts were mixed. Notably, Wailea and the other resorts were really quiet as was the Napili, Kahana and Honokowai district.

Interest Rates

One of the bigger takeaways from the home inventory was the increase in buyer activity and decrease in listings in the price ranges with more financed buyers. The decrease in interest rates at the end of last year and to start this year improved affordability bringing buyers back to the market. There were some who thought further decreases in rates could heat up the market again. Well, if you haven’t been tracking rates closely, they are back on the rise again.

Forecasting rates is a fool’s errand at this point. That said, the trajectory of rates will continue to impact the market. Needless to say, higher rates may cool some segments of the market while any substantive decrease in rates could boost demand.

Are Sellers Negotiating?

During the frenzied market of 2021 and the first half of 2022, negotiation became something of a forgotten term on Maui. Sellers were in the driver seat and a significant number of the sales closed for asking price or above. With less buyer activity than last year, how much are sellers willing to negotiate in the current market?

While we don’t have transparency on contract prices with recent pending sales, I looked at closed sales between January 1 and February 15th to get a sense of how much negotiation occurred.

A pie chart of Sales Price vs List Price for Maui Homes from January 1 through February 15th.
The Chart above breaks down sales price compared to asking price for Maui Homes between January 1st and February 15th, 2023.

Looking at the home chart, you can see that there still is some competition for homes with 31% of all sales coming in at full asking price and an additional 13% over asking price. That points to the continued impact of low inventory. While there are fewer buyers, the below normal inventory levels mean that there can be competition for quality listings. That said, 18% of buyers are paying anywhere between 5% and 10% below asking price. An additional 15% are paying more 10% below asking price with a handful of those more than 20% below.

A pie chart of sales price vs list price for Maui Condos from January 1 through February 15th.
This chart compares sales price vs. asking price for Maui Condos sold between January 1 and February 15th, 2023.

Looking at the condo chart, recent sales point to a more competitive market with 18% of recent sales closing for over asking price and 37% for full price. Only 16% of all listings sold for less than 95% of asking price with only 1% less than 90% of asking price. While buyer activity is down, inventory remains limited and some segments of the market are particularly scarce.

Overall, buyers have more latitude to make offers under current market conditions. That said, it really depends on price range and the districts where they are searching. It is also worth noting that a number of the sellers who are negotiating are those that priced above market. At this point, values feel pretty stable and sellers aren’t chasing the market.

A Few Last Thoughts

This musings is being published a little later than usual in the month. That afforded me the opportunity to incorporate sales data from the first 15 days of the month in the section above. While I didn’t delve into this February’s pending data yet, at a surface level the overall number of pending sales continues to increase. They should be rising as this is our peak buying season. The questions is how much are pending sales increasing compared to what is normal during this time of year? Anecdotally, it seems like the resorts are seeing a little more activity than they were in January. It will be interesting to see how the numbers stack up to previous years at the end of the month.

While things are understandably busier than the fall, market conditions remain weird. Decreased demand for this time of year is offset in part by lower inventory. That creates some pockets of the market that remain competitive. That said, there are also a fair number of sellers stuck in the market frenzy mindset. For the most part, those properties are quiet and accumulating days on market.

There are still quite a few sellers hitting surprisingly high prices. That’s part of the weird vibe that permeates the market.

A Little Maui Beauty to Brighten This Post

Contact The Maui Real Estate Team

Questions on this month’s numbers? Thinking about buying or selling property on Maui? Contact the Maui Real Estate Team. We welcome the chance to talk, listen and learn more about your real estate needs. Out experienced group of agents are here to help you guide through the current market’s peculiar conditions.

Are you looking for a new Maui home?
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