Maui Real Estate Market Update Q1 2024 Vol. 1

Maui Real Estate Market Update Q1 Volume 1
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It took until the last day of the month, and a leap day for that matter, to finish this month’s Maui Market update. Consider it the byproduct of an author with listings at the far corners of the island. If only I could figure out how to dictate posts as I navigate another sharp turn and one-way section on the road to Hana. Without further ado, here is our overview of the January market activity and end-of-the-month inventory, followed by a few thoughts and observations.

January Market Activity

January 2024January 2023January 2022January 2021January 2020January 2019
Homes9569118104133135
Condos136120195201164197
New Listings in January from 2019-2024

New home listings increased 37.68% over last January. This January’s new listings are 28.57% and 29.63% lower than January 2020 and 2019, respectively. New condo listings in January increased 13.33% over last January. The new January condo listings were 17.07% lower than January 2020 and 29.9% lower than January 2019.

January 2024January 2023January 2022January 2021January 2020January 2019
Homes7757991208898
Condos8695177247133153
New Pending Sales in January from 2019-2024

New pending home sales this January were 35% higher than last January. They came in 12.5% lower than January 2020 and 21.43% lower than January 2019. New pending condo sales came in 9.47% lower than last January. This January was 35.33% lower than January 2020 and and 43.79% lower than January 2019. Condo activity was down a whopping 65.18% from the boom times of January 2021.

January 2024January 2023January 2022January 2021January 2020January 2019
Homes565991948161
Condos9252151114124125
Closed Transaction in January from 2019-2024

The number of homes sold in January decreased 5.08% compared to last January. This January’s sales were 30.86% and 8.2% lower than January 2020 and 2019, respectively. The number of condos sold in January was 76.92% higher than January 2023. The sales numbers this were 25.8% lower than January 2020 and 26.4% lower than 2019.

End of January Maui Home Inventory

The tables below show active and pending inventory by price point and community on the last day of January. Inventory from the last days of December and November are provided for context and to illustrate recent trends. Of note, Makawao and Wailuku’s pending sales numbers are both getting a boost from longer-term contracts at the new developments of Hoku’ula and Anuhea at Kehalani, respectively.

November 30, 2023December 31, 2023January 31, 2024
ActivePendingActivePendingActivePending
<$750,0009116107 (+1)9 (-1)
$750,000-$999,999142110239 (-1)22 (-1)
$1,000,000-$1,499,9993842205216 (-4)55 (+3)
$1,500,000-$1,999,9992819322228 (-4)28 (+6)
$2,000,000-$2,999,9993353253212 (+7)
$3,000,000-$4,999,99934541645 (+4)9 (+3)
$5,000,000-$9,999,99932235541 (+6)4 (-1)
$10,000,000-$19,999,99913016014 (-2)1 (+1)
$20,000,000+40403 (-1)0
Totals205105196123195(-1)140(+17)
Maui Active and Pending Home Inventory by Price Point on the Last Day of November, December, and January
November 30, 2023December 31, 2023January 31, 2024
ActivePendingActivePendingActivePending
Haiku199141315(+1)8(-5)
Hana10111113(+2)1
Ka’anapali11214112(-2)1
Kahului687130(-7)16(+3)
Kapalua61819(-1)1
Kihei2915171914(-3)15(-4)
Kula25625627(+2)9(+3)
Lahaina17419323(+4)5(+2)
Makawao1214201816(-4)24(+6)
Napili/Kahana/Hono…114949 6 (+2)
Pukalani36153 (+2)2 (-3)
Sprecks/Paia719110 (+1)2 (+1)
Wailea/Makena 25319719 10 (+3)
Wailuku1930152718 (+3)35 (+8)
Maui Active and Pending Home Inventory by District on the Last Day of November, December, and January

Five Notable Things About the End of January Home Inventory

The end-of-the-month inventory of active homes for sale decreased by the smallest of margins, with just one fewer active listing than on December 31st. That marks the third straight month that home inventory decreased. Pending home sales on January 31st increased 13.8% from December 31st.

Looking at Active Inventory by price point, active home listings decreased in more price points than they increased. The biggest decrease in active listings occurred in the price ranges between $1,000,000 and $1,999,999. They increased the most in the price ranges between $3,000,000 and $9,999,999.

Pending sales increased in more price ranges than they decreased. The biggest increase in pending sales occurred in the price ranges between $1,500,000 and $2,999,999. While pending sales decreased in the price ranges below $1,000,000, some of that may stem from a lack of inventory.

Looking at active inventory by community, seven communities increased inventory between the end of December and the last day of January, five decreased, and two remained unchanged. Lahaina and Wailuku inventory increased the most. Kahului’s decrease was the most notable, going from seven listings to no active listings by the end of the month. Kahului is more of a market for primary residences. The dip in Kahului inventory speaks to current demand from island residents due to both displacement from the fires and a really tough long-term rental market.

Pending sales increased in eight communities between the last day of December and the last day of November. The biggest increases in pending sales occurred in Makawao and Wailuku. Again, these are primarily communities that attract buyers seeking a primary residence. Also, as noted above, pending sales in these communities are boosted due to longer-term contracts at new developments. Pending sales decreased in Kihei, Pukalani and Haiku between the end of December and the end of January. All three of those communities offered well below normal inventory to prospective buyers. Pending sales remained unchanged in another three communities.

End of January Maui Condo Inventory

The tables below show active and pending condo sales by price point and community on the last day of the month from November through January. Wailea and the price points between $1,500,000 and $5,000,000 continue to receive a boost in pending sales due to long-term developer contracts at La’i Loa. This impact is slowly diminishing. Thirty-six of the seventy-five units in the development have now closed. The rest of the units should be completed over the next four months.

November 30, 2023December 31, 2023January 31, 2024
ActivePendingActivePendingActivePending
<$250,00001110 (-1)3 (+2)
$250,000-$499,999197111312 (+2)6 (-7)
$500,000-$749,9993432392836 (-3)29 (-1)
$750,000-$999,9995725742083 (+9)17 (-3)
$1,000,000-$1,499,9995721851976(-9)23(+4)
$1,500,000-$1,999,9993922472052 (+5)19 (-1)
$2,000,000-$2,999,9992630372835 (-2)31 (+3)
$3,000,000-$4,999,9992613301530 15
$5,000,000-$9,999,9999015118 (+3)0 (-1)
$10,000,000+41708 (+1)1 (+1)
Totals271152346145350 (+4)144 (-1)
Maui Active and Pending Condo Inventory by Price Point on the last day of the month of November , December and January
November 30, 2023December 31, 2023January 31, 2024
ActivePendingActivePendingActivePending
Ka’anapali448651459 (-6)14
Kahului51433 (-1)3
Kapalua16222122 4 (+3)
Kihei784610642109 (+3)44 (+2)
Lahaina100000
Ma’alaea67948 (-1)6 (+2)
Napili/Kahana/Hono…7615802175 (-5)19 (-2)
Wailea3864525461 (+9)50 (-4)
Wailuku695510 (+5)3 (-2)
Active and Pending Condo Inventory by Community on the last day of November, December and January

Five Notable Things About The January Condo Inventory

Active condo inventory increased 1.16% between the end of December and the last day of January. This is the fifth straight month inventory has increased month to month. Although the increase during January was the smallest increase during this five-month span. Pending sales dropped by the smallest of margins with just one fewer sale on the last day of January compared to the last day of December.

Looking at active condo inventory by price point, five price points increased in inventory, four decreased in inventory, and two remained unchanged. The biggest increase in inventory occurred in the $750,000-$999,999 price range, while the biggest decrease in condo inventory occurred between $1,000,000 and $1,499,999.

Pending condo sales decreased at more price points than they increased. The biggest decrease in pending condo sales occurred between $250,000 and $499,999. The biggest increase in pending condo sales occurred between $1,000,000 and $1,499,999.

Active condo inventory decreased in more communities than it increased. Ka’anapali inventory decreased the most, followed by the Napili, Kahana, and Honokowai areas. Wailea condo inventory increased the most in terms of the sheer number of units. The number of active condo listings in Wailuku increased the most by percentage

Three communities increased pending sales over January, three decreased, and three remained the same. Kapalua saw the biggest increase in pending sales. The number of pending sales decreased the most in Wailea.

Some Observations on Market Trends

It’s been a quieter start to our peak real estate season on Maui. The condo market, in particular, is slower.

The decrease in activity is mostly in the sale of vacation rental properties. That can be attributed to a variety of reasons. Topping the list are lower visitor numbers in the aftermath of the fire, and regulatory uncertainty over vacation rentals. The Governor is still discussing a vacation rental moratorium in West Maui for the next couple of years due to a lack of long term housing for displaced fire victims. There are also quite a few developments around the island facing assessments at this time. That is leading to increased supply and decreased demand specific to those developments.

The home market showed more strength than the condo market in January, with a modest decrease in inventory despite a healthy supply of new listings. Most of the activity is occurring below $2,000,000, with buyers particularly active below $1,500,000. While I don’t have firm numbers, the anecdotal evidence is piling up that much of the activity is from Lahaina residents displaced by the fire. With limited supply available, we are seeing shorter days on the market and bidding wars on well-priced properties again.

There is some nuance to the home market, with higher price points in the market, particularly between $2,000,000 and $5,000,000, seeing a steady increase in supply. Some of this is second homeowners listing at a time of year that typically is more advantageous for sales. Buyers definitely have more inventory to choose from at these higher price points.

While it is the end of the month, I haven’t had the luxury of sitting down to get a good sense of February’s market activity. I would surmise that we will see a continuation of some of the recent trends. We just haven’t seen any big changes in market dynamics.

The one thing that I am keeping an eye on that may influence the market in the months ahead is insurance. Hawaii is now classified as a higher-risk fire state, and that is impacting the insurance market, particularly in the condo market. Some developments are facing big increases in rates as they lose coverage and need to go to pooled insurance. At this time, we know of three condo developments that have had to do assessments due to the increase in their annual insurance policy. At a minumum, maintenance fees will be higher and assessments are possible. This is something for condo buyers to be mindful of as they determine their budget for a purchase.

A Little Maui Beauty to Close Out This Post

The sun sets just off the tips of Kaho'olawe and Molokini
The sun sets just off the tips of Molokini and Kaho’olawe

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