The twenty-eight days of February seemed to pass by quickly. Almost too quickly for me to post my Maui Real Estate Market Update Q1 2025 Vol. 1. Alas, once again I am squeezing it in at the end of the month. This post looks back at the January real estate market activity on the island of Maui. It includes information on new pending sales, new inventory, closed transactions, and end-of-the-month active and pending listings. Before the calendar turns to March, here are the numbers…
January Market Activity
This section looks at new listings, the number of properties that went under contract, and the number of closed transactions in January 2025. I provide previous January activity for context. One thing to note: I skipped 2020 and instead included an average value for the three Januarys between and 2017-2019. That should give you a little better sense of how this January compares to “normal” January activity prior to Covid-19 market conditions.
January New Listings
| January 25 | January 24 | January 23 | January 22 | January 21 | Avg. Jan 17-19 | |
| Homes | 99 | 101 | 69 | 122 | 104 | 138 |
| Condos | 157 | 146 | 121 | 195 | 201 | 196 |
New home listings decreased by 2% in January compared to January 2024. This January was 28.2% below the January average for new home listings between 2017 and 2019. New condo listings increased 7.5% compared to January 2024. However, they are still 19.9% below the January three-year average for new listings between 2017 and 2019.
January New Pending Sales
| January 25 | January 24 | January 23 | January 22 | January 21 | Avg. Jan 17-19 | |
| Homes | 45 | 70 | 57 | 95 | 120 | 95 |
| Condos | 61 | 93 | 96 | 177 | 247 | 153 |
January was a particularly quiet month for new pending home sales. New pending sales decreased 35.7% compared to January 2024. New pending home sales in January were 52.6% below the three-year average between January 2017 and January 2019. New pending condo sales decreased 34.4% compared to last January. They were 60.1% below the average number of January new pending condo sales between 2017 and 2019.
January Closed Transactions
| January 25 | January 24 | January 23 | January 22 | January 21 | Avg. Jan 17-19 | |
| Homes | 56 | 56 | 59 | 91 | 94 | 69 |
| Condos | 53 | 93 | 52 | 155 | 114 | 114 |
The exact same number of homes sold this January as January 2024. However, this January’s sales were 18.8% below the average number of January sales between 2017 and 2019. The number of condos sold in January decreased by 43% compared to last January. January condo sales were 53.5% below the average number of January condo sales between 2017 and 2019.
End of January Maui Home Inventory
Our January 2025 inventory numbers differ from the Realtor Association of Maui’s. Our numbers are always a little different because I don’t include listings on the islands of Molokai and Lanai. My pending sales are higher this month because I am including some pending sales at Anuhea at Kehalani that showed as temporarily off the market on the Maui MLS.
The listing brokerage for the development had a mixup with their biannual license renewals that forced them to show the listings as off-market until their license situation was resolved. Since the contracts were still in place, I included those temporarily off-market listings among the pending sales.
| November 30, 2024 | December 31, 2024 | January 31, 2025 | ||||
| Active | Pending | Active | Pending | Active | Pending | |
| <$750,000 | 8 | 11 | 5 | 11 | 3 (-2) | 7 (-4) |
| $750,000- $999,999 | 28 | 17 | 24 | 15 | 23 (-1) | 10 (-5) |
| $1,000,000-$1,499,999 | 60 | 45 | 61 | 39 | 67 (+6) | 41 (+2) |
| $1,500,000-$1,999,999 | 64 | 23 | 62 | 27 | 65 (+3) | 22 (-5) |
| $2,000,000-$2,999,999 | 52 | 11 | 58 | 10 | 73 (+15) | 8 (-2) |
| $3,000,000-$4,999,999 | 51 | 6 | 64 | 4 | 57 (-7) | 5 (+1) |
| $5,000,000-$9,999,999 | 48 | 5 | 50 | 4 | 50 | 8 (+4) |
| $10,000,000-$19,999,999 | 21 | 0 | 21 | 0 | 21 | 0 |
| $20,000,000+ | 3 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 7 (+1) | 0 |
| Totals | 335 | 118 | 351 | 110 | 366 (+15) | 101 (-9) |
| November 30, 2024 | December 31, 2024 | January 31, 2025 | ||||
| Active | Pending | Active | Pending | Active | Pending | |
| Haiku | 30 | 10 | 27 | 13 | 23 (-4) | 7 (-6) |
| Hana | 19 | 3 | 18 | 3 | 16 (-2) | 0 (-3) |
| Ka’anapali | 17 | 2 | 21 | 1 | 18 (-3) | 4 (+3) |
| Kahului | 21 | 10 | 16 | 9 | 21 (+5) | 9 |
| Kapalua | 11 | 1 | 11 | 1 | 13 (+2) | 2 (+1) |
| Kihei | 52 | 10 | 51 | 15 | 61 (+10) | 12 (-3) |
| Kula | 31 | 8 | 29 | 8 | 29 | 11 (+3) |
| Lahaina | 25 | 4 | 22 | 2 | 22 | 2 |
| Makawao | 12 | 18 | 15 | 15 | 13 (-2) | 18 (+3) |
| Napili/Kahana/Hono… | 19 | 0 | 24 | 2 | 28 (+4) | 3 (+1) |
| Pukalani | 7 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 7 (+2) | 2 (-1) |
| Sprecks/Paia | 13 | 2 | 19 | 1 | 20 (+1) | 1 |
| Wailea | 20 | 4 | 27 | 0 | 28 | 2 |
| Wailuku | 46 | 39 | 46 | 33 | 46 | 24 |
Five Notable Things About the End of January Home Inventory
Between December 31st and January 31st, active home listings increased 4.3%. Pending home listings decreased by 8.2% during that same period of time.
Looking at active listings by price point, inventory increased in four price points, decreased in three, and remained unchanged in two. Inventory increased in all price ranges between $1,000,000 and $3,000,000. Inventory remains tight below the median sales price with the price ranges under $1,000,000 both seeing a decline in inventory. The biggest decline in active listings was for homes between $3,000,000 and $4,999,999.
The number of pending home sales by price point increased in three price points, decreased in four, and remained unchanged in two. Pending sales decreased, most notably below $1,000,000. The biggest increase in pending sales occurred between $5,000,000 and $9,999,999.
At a community level, active inventory increased in four communities, decreased in six, and remained unchanged in four. Kihei and Kahului had the most significant increase in active listings. Haiku and Ka’anapali had the most considerable decrease in active listings.
Pending listings increased in five communities, decreased in four, and remained unchanged in four. Ka’anapali, Makawao, and Kula were the three communities with the largest increase in pending sales. Haiku, Hana, and Kihei had the most substantial decrease in pending sales.
End of January Maui Condo Inventory
| November 30, 2024 | December 31, 2024 | January 31, 2025 | ||||
| Active | Pending | Active | Pending | Active | Pending | |
| <$250,000 | 10 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 8 (-1) | 0 (-1) |
| $250,000-$499,999 | 57 | 10 | 64 | 9 | 72 (+8) | 7 (-2) |
| $500,000-$749,999 | 170 | 17 | 172 | 30 | 182 (+10) | 29 (-1) |
| $750,000-$999,999 | 142 | 16 | 147 | 13 | 160 (+13) | 13 |
| $1,000,000-$1,499,999 | 135 | 9 | 142 | 11 | 132 (-10) | 20 (+9) |
| $1,500,000-$1,999,999 | 53 | 2 | 66 | 1 | 73 (+7) | 5 (+4) |
| $2,000,000-$2,999,999 | 52 | 8 | 55 | 5 | 56 (+1) | 5 |
| $3,000,000-$4,999,999 | 33 | 3 | 36 | 2 | 39 (+3) | 4 (+2) |
| $5,000,000-$9,999,999 | 18 | 0 | 22 | 0 | 19 (-3) | 3 (+3) |
| $10,000,000+ | 8 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 6 (-2) | 1 (+1) |
| Totals | 678 | 67 | 721 | 72 | 747 (+26) | 87 (+13) |
| November 30, 2024 | December 31, 2024 | January 31, 2025 | ||||
| Active | Pending | Active | Pending | Active | Pending | |
| Ka’anapali | 93 | 5 | 93 | 9 | 95 (+2) | 12 (+3) |
| Kahului | 15 | 3 | 13 | 2 | 13 | 0 (-2) |
| Kapalua | 38 | 2 | 42 | 1 | 39 (-3) | 4 (+3) |
| Kihei | 224 | 32 | 237 | 31 | 262 (+25) | 32 (+1) |
| Lahaina | 12 | 0 | 14 | 3 | 15 (+1) | 3 |
| Ma’alaea | 21 | 2 | 20 | 2 | 20 | 0 (-2) |
| Napili/Kahana/Hono… | 167 | 9 | 176 | 11 | 179 (+3) | 14 (+3) |
| Pukalani | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Wailea | 66 | 7 | 83 | 5 | 83 | 13 (+8) |
| Wailuku | 39 | 7 | 36 | 8 | 35 (-1) | 8 |
Five Notable Things About the End of January Maui Condo Inventory
Between the last day of December and the last day of January, active listings increased by 3.6%. Pending listings increased by 20.6%. While the percentage increase in pending sales sounds impressive, it is worth remembering that the number of pending sales at the end of December was relatively low.
Looking at active listings by price point, active listings increased in six price points and decreased at four. The most significant increases in inventory occurred at the price points between $250,000 and $1,000,000. The $1,500,000-$1,999,999 price range also saw a healthy rise in listings. The most significant decrease in active listings occurred between $1,500,000 and $1,999,999.
Pending listings increased in five price points, decreased in three, and remained unchanged in two. Interestingly, pending sales decreased in all three price points below $750,000. All three price points from $3,000,000 and above increased pending sales. This reflects winter second home buying. The biggest increase in pending sales occurred between $1,000,000 and $1,499,999. Again, this is likely due to winter second home buying.
Looking at active inventory by community, active condo listings increased in four communities, decreased in two, and remained unchanged in four. The most substantial increase occurred in Kihei, the island’s largest condo market. Kapalua had the most significant decrease in condo listings, albeit only three fewer than at the end of last month.
Pending sales increased in five communities, decreased in two, and remained unchanged in three. Wailea‘s pending sales increased the most, followed by Kapalua, Ka’anapali, and the Napili, Kahana, and Honokowai districts. Ma’alaea and Kahului were the communities where pending sales decreased between the two months.
Thoughts on the Market
The Maui Real Estate Market started the year very slowly. The first few weeks of January were particularly quiet, but pending sales activity began to pick up over the last ten days. Even with the end-of-the-month rally, new pending home and condo sales were well below last January and much lower than a typical pre-Covid January.
With lower buyer demand, we continue to see increases in active home and condo listings. While new inventory is still below normal, it is outpacing buyer demand.
With demand down and inventory up, are we seeing a lot of downward pressure on pricing? The answer depends on where you are looking in the market. The single-family home market continues to show the most resilience in pricing. Prices appear to be holding and, in some cases, still increasing.
The condo market is seeing price adjustments. Minatoya List condos have seen the most downward pricing pressure as sellers need to adjust prices to offset the continued regulatory uncertainty. That said, some hotel-zoned condos are seeing some downward pressure as well due to lower tourism, lower rental returns, higher monthly fees, and just fewer buyers shopping in the market.
What will the rest of the “busy season” bring? We continue to see headwinds in the market. While tourism numbers are better, we have not recovered to pre-fire visitor levels. While it was hoped that we might have some resolution on the proposed legislation limiting vacation rentals in apartment-zoned condos this winter, that looks less likely.
There are also some national headwinds. Pending sales are well below normal nationwide. While interest rates have improved in the last week, that is mainly due to increased economic uncertainty. That said, I have been surprised by the market’s resiliency over the previous few years. These headwinds don’t guarantee that the second half of our peak season will end on a quiet note. That’s less a case of me prognosticating, and more an acknowledgement that I have come to expect the unknown in the Maui real estate market.
Buyers shopping for condos will find less competition, more inventory, and potentially more negotiating opportunities. Home buyers may find less competition, but inventory remains constrained at many price points and communities around the island. Sellers must keep their pencil sharp on pricing and be willing to adjust to market feedback. For the most part, buyers are pickier than they were a couple years ago. Sellers may need to make concessions to get deals to close.
Contact the Maui Real Estate Team if you are a buyer or seller with questions about a particular community or neighborhood. We look forward to being of assistance.
A Little Maui Beauty to Brighten This Post
