Maui Real Estate Market Update Q2 2023 Vol. 2

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Maui Market Musings Volume XXVII looks at all the data on real estate activity on Maui in May. It includes information on new listings, pending sales and closed transactions. It also looks at end of the month inventory levels by price point and community. The numbers show a surprising surge in pending sales in what can be a quieter month for buyer activity on Maui. Keep reading for all of the details.

May Market Activity

The tables below show new Inventory, new pending sales and closed transactions for the month of May. The previous five years are shown for additional context. The numbers will show that new listing and new pending activity in the home market came closer to previous years. The gap between this year and previous years for May condo activity remained significant.

May 2023May 2022May 2021May 2020May 2019May 2018
Homes9711413595106115
Condos97140187135160 180
New inventory in May of 2023 compared to the previous five months of May.

By recent standards, new home listings weren’t too far below normal. The 97 homes listed exceeds new inventory for any of the previous four months this year. It is 15% below last May and 8.5% and 16% below May of 2019 and 2018 respectively. New condo inventory continues to lag. The 97 condos listed is 31% below last May. It is 39% and 46% below 2019 and 2018 respectively.

May 2023May 2022May 2021May 2020May 2019May 2018
Homes76731107410795
Condos9111623164134142
New Pending Sales in May of 2023 compared to the previous five months of May.

This was also the busiest month for new pending home sales this year. The 76 pending sales is actually 4% higher than last May. It is 29% and 20% below May of 2019 and 2018 respectively. The 91 new pending condo sales is 22% below last May. This May’s pending condo sales are 32% and 36% below May 2019 and May 2018 respectively.

May 2023May 2022May 2021May 2020May 2019 May 2018
Homes699411640125104
Condos8915324254145171
Closed Transaction in May of 23 compared to the previous five months of May.

Sales are a lagging indicator of market demand. The 69 homes sold is 27% below last May. It is 45% and 34% below May of 2019 and 2018 respectively. The 89 condos sold is 42% below May of 2022. This May’s closed condo transactions came in 39% and 48% below May 2019 and May 2018.

End of May Home Inventory

The charts below show active and pending home inventory in May by price point and community. They also include the numbers from the previous two months to show the general direction of the inventory.

3/31/234/40/235/31/23
ActivePendingActivePendingActivePending
<$750,00086728 (+1)9 (+7)
$750,000-$999,9991935242520 (-4)30 (+5)
$1,000,000-$1,499,9994731503236 (-14)39 (+7)
$1,500,000-$1,999,9992911301728 (-2)15 (-2)
$2,000,000-$2,999,999389301230 16 (+4)
$3,000,000-$4,999,9993612381543 (+5) 11 (-4)
$5,000,000-$9,999,99935833738 (+5)7
$10,000,000-$19,999,99912313210 (-3)0 (-2)
$20,000,000+60506 (+1)0
Totals230115230112219 (-11)127 (+15)
Active and Pending home listings by price point on the last day of the month between March and May.
3/31/234/30/235/31/23
ActivePendingActivePendingActivePending
Haiku264181016 (-2)10
Hana12110313 (+3)3
Ka’anapali9511415 (+4)1
Kahului8129113 (-6)14 (+3)
Kapalua10110211 (+1)3 (+1)
Kihei2416231317 (-6)15 (+2)
Kula1613191520 (+1)10 (-5)
Lahaina16314422 (+8)5 (+1)
Makawao231020142010 (-4)
Napili/Kahana/Hono…14317214 (-3)5 (+3)
Pukalani64725 (-2)6 (+4)
Sprecks/Paia92929 3 (+1)
Wailea15819420 (+1)4
Wailuku2926302321 (-7)32 (+9)
Active and Pending Home Listings by Community on the last day of the month between March and May.

Five Notable Things About the End of May Home Inventory

  • Active inventory at the end of May decreased 5% from the end of April. Pending Home sales increased 13% at the end of May compared to the end of April.
  • Looking at active inventory by price point, four price points increased in inventory, four decreased and one remained unchanged. The $1,000,000 to $1,499,999 price range experienced the biggest drop in inventory with 28% fewer listings at the end of May compared to the end of April. The $750,000 to $999,999 price range and $10,000,000 to $19,999,999 price ranges also had notable drops.
  • Looking at pending sales by price point, pending sales increased in four price ranges, decreased in three price ranges and remain unchanged in two. All price ranges under $1,500,000 showed a substantial increase in pending sales. The $3,000,000 to $5,000,000 range experienced the biggest decrease in pending sales.
  • Pivoting to the change in active listings at the community level, end of month active listings increased in six communities, decreased in six communities and remained unchanged in two. Lahaina’s active inventory increased the most. Kahului, Kihei and Wailuku experienced the biggest drops in active listings.
  • End of the month pending listings increased in seven communities, decreased in two communities and remained unchanged in four communities. Pendings increased the most in Wailuku, followed by Pukalani and Kahului. The decrease in pending sales occurred in Makawao and Kula.

End of the Month Condo Inventory

The charts below provide end of the month active and pending condo inventory by price point and district. It is worth noting that the Wailea pending sales receive a boost from 75 new developer units under contract in La’i Loa at Wailea Hills. These properties went under contract between 2020 and the the first quarter of 2021. Priced from just under $1,500,000 all the way up to over $4,000,000, these long term contracts are also skewing the pending sales upwards in this price range.

3/31/234/30/235/31/23
ActivePendingActivePendingActivePending
<$250,00002115 (+4)1
$250,000-$499,9991410141313 (-1)12 (-1)
$500,000-$749,9994827463246 30 (-2)
$750,000-$999,9993231263832 (+6)36 (-2)
$1,000,000-$1,499,9992731222622 28 (+2)
$1,500,000-$1,999,9992442254024 (-1)40
$2,000,000-$2,999,9991738163914 (-2)43 (+4)
$3,000,000-$4,999,999151712171217
$5,000,000-$9,999,99913212210 (-2)7 (+5)
$10,000,000+604040
Totals196200178208182 (+4)214 (+6)
Last day of the month active and pending condo inventory by price point for March through May.
3/30/234/30/235/31/23
ActivePendingActivePendingActivePending
Ka’anapali2311221220 (-2)13 (+1)
Kahului40448 (+4)2 (-2)
Kapalua13710511 (+1)7 (+2)
Kihei5949544865 (+11)50 (+2)
Lahaina176137134 (-3)
Ma’alaea54665 (-1)6
Napili/Kahana/Hono…4325412538 (-3)30 (+5)
Wailea2789249119 (-5)95 (+4)
Wailuku59493 (-1)7 (-2)
End of the month active and pending condo inventory by community for March through May.

Five Notable Things About the End of May Condo Inventory

  • Active and pending condo listings increased modestly from the end of April to the end of May. There are just around 2.2% more active listings and 2.9% more pending listings.
  • Looking at changes in active listings by price range, actives increased in only two price ranges, remained unchanged in four price ranges and decreased in four price ranges. The increase in active inventory occurred under $250,000 and between $750,000 and $999,999. Decreases in active listings were modest at the price points where they occurred.
  • Pending listings decreased at three price ranges, increased in three price ranges and remained unchanged in four price ranges. The drop in pending sales occurred between $250,000-$999,999. The sharpest increase in pending sales occurred between $5,000,000 and $9,999,999 followed by the $2,000,000 to $2,999,999 price range.
  • At a community level, active listings increased in three areas, decreased in five and remained unchanged in one. The number of active Kihei Condos for sale and Kahului condos for sale increased the most from the end of April.
  • Pending listings increased from the end of April in five communities, decreased in three communities and remained unchanged in one. The biggest increase in pending sales occurred in the Wailea/Makena area and the Napili/Kahana/Honokowai area. Lahaina had the most notable drop in end of the month pending sales.

Some Thoughts on the Numbers above and the State of The Maui Market

Every time I log into our Realtor database, the front page shows me the current number of pending sales for homes, condos, land and commercial properties. Throughout our winter busy season, the total number of pending sales stayed below 400. With our busy season behind us, I thought it would be unlikely to see us breach the 400 barrier anytime soon. Needless to say, it surprised me when we crossed 400 and went all the way up into above 410 pending sales in the middle of May.

As the numbers show above, new pending home sales are playing a bigger role than condo sales in the recent increase. The data also shows that the increase in pending sales is driven by activity close to and below the median sales price. Looking at community level data, the surge in pending sales is not driven by the resort markets. Places like Wailuku, Kahului and Kihei led the way.

So what’s driving this bump in homebuyer activity? We typically don’t see a seasonal surge in the Spring like the mainland. Our busiest times for transactions usually correlate more closely with a higher number of visitors. Does the increase in pending home sales correlate with the recent increase in home inventory? Is the new supply satiating pent up demand? It is hard to say at this point, but there is some anecdotal evidence. Continued price increases throughout the winter point to more demand than supply. It would make sense that there were buyers there to absorb the recent increase in new listings.

It will be interesting to see if we continue to see more new home inventory or if May was an anomalous month. The market remains unpredictable and one month doesn’t make a trend.

With pending sales back below 400, there are already some signs of cooling from the recent surge. Higher interest rates due to both more persistent inflation and the recent debt ceiling stand off continue to undercut affordability. The spike in rates last fall really cooled some of the busier communities and price ranges for new pending home sales last month.

About the only prediction I am willing to make at this point is that year to year comparisons with last year should become more favorable. Activity cooled in the second half of 2022 under rising interest rates resulting in a lower baseline for future comparisons. That’s why we include 2019 and 2018 data when comparing new pending sales, new inventory and closed transactions. 2022 was an anomalous year, and 2021 and 2020 were complete outliers. 2019 and 2018 are ultimately more relevant when comparing current conditions to that of a “normal” market. Moving forward, we will continue to do our best to keep you abreast of current market conditions on Maui.

A Little Maui Beauty to Brighten This Post

A drone shot shows the sun starting to set. Our vacant land listing in Palauea is in the foreground.
The sun setting into the Pacific with our office’s lot listing in the One Palauea Bay neighborhood in the foreground.

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