Once again, it’s time to check in with a Maui Real Market Update. Q2 2024 Vol. 1 looks at market activity in April. The home and condo market are diverging when it comes to inventory and buyer activity. While the home market continues to see low inventory levels and consistent buyer activity, condo inventory is growing and condo buyer activity is declining. Keep reading for all the numbers from April and some thoughts on the current market.
April Market Activity
April New Listings
| April 2024 | April 2023 | April 2022 | April 2021 | April 2020 | April 17-19 Avg. | |
| Homes | 83 | 78 | 95 | 122 | 72 | 120 |
| Condos | 140 | 98 | 154 | 184 | 124 | 162 |
April 2024’s new home listings increased by 6.4% over April 2023. However, it was 35% lower than the average number of new home listings in April 2017, 2018, and 2019. April 2024’s new condo inventory increased 42.9% over April 2023. However, it is 13.6% lower than the average new condo inventory in April 2017, 2018, and 2019.
April New Pending Sales
| April 2024 | April 2023 | April 2022 | April 2021 | April 2020 | April 17-19 Avg. | |
| Homes | 70 | 63 | 87 | 119 | 39 | 97 |
| Condos | 60 | 90 | 140 | 218 | 33 | 143 |
New Pending home sales in April 2024 were 11.1% higher than April 2023. They were 27.8% lower than the average during April 2017, 2018, and 2019. New pending condo sales in April 2024 were 33.3% lower than in April 2023. They came in 58% below the average number of new pending condo sales between April 2017, 2018, and 2019.
April Sales
| April 2024 | April 2023 | April 2022 | April 2021 | April 2020 | April 17-19 Avg. | |
| Homes | 65 | 56 | 105 | 129 | 82 | 86 |
| Condos | 104 | 85 | 168 | 262 | 85 | 143 |
April 2024 home sales were 16% higher than April 2023 home sales. However, they were 24.5% below the average during April 2017, 2018 and 2019. April condo sales were 22.35% higher than April 2023. However, they were 27.3% below the average of April 2017, 2018 and 2019.
End of April Maui Home Inventory
The tables below show active and pending inventory by price point and community on the last day of April. Inventory from the last days of February and March are provided for context and to illustrate recent trends. Makawao and Wailuku’s pending sales continue to receive a boost from some longer-term developer contracts in new subdivisions. Contracts for homes in Hoku’ula and Anuhea at Kehalani are also boosting pending sales in the $1,000,000 to $1,999,999 price ranges.
| February 29, 2024 | March 31, 2024 | April 30, 2024 | ||||
| Active | Pending | Active | Pending | Active | Pending | |
| <$750,000 | 6 | 10 | 3 | 8 | 1 (-2) | 12 (+4) |
| $750,000-$999,999 | 10 | 15 | 11 | 17 | 9 (-2) | 14(-3) |
| $1,000,000-$1,499,999 | 23 | 42 | 20 | 45 | 28 (+8) | 55 (+10) |
| $1,500,000-$1,999,999 | 35 | 25 | 44 | 27 | 45 (+1) | 24 (-3) |
| $2,000,000-$2,999,999 | 37 | 16 | 42 | 11 | 38 (-4) | 16 (+5) |
| $3,000,0000-$4,999,999 | 44 | 12 | 49 | 8 | 50 (+1) | 6 (-2) |
| $5,000,000-$9,999,999 | 47 | 4 | 47 | 5 | 47 | 5 |
| $10,000,000-$19,999,999 | 16 | 1 | 16 | 0 | 14 (-2) | 0 |
| $20,000,000+ | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| Totals | 221 | 125 | 235 | 121 | 235 | 132 (+9) |
| February 29, 2024 | March 31, 2024 | April 30, 2024 | ||||
| Active | Pending | Active | Pending | Active | Pending | |
| Haiku | 16 | 8 | 20 | 5 | 15 (-5) | 9 (+4) |
| Hana | 13 | 1 | 11 | 3 | 12 (+1) | 1 (-2) |
| Ka’anapali | 14 | 2 | 16 | 2 | 16 | 3 (+1) |
| Kahului | 4 | 12 | 5 | 10 | 6 (+1) | 9 (-1) |
| Kapalua | 13 | 1 | 13 | 2 | 13 | 1 (-1) |
| Kihei | 21 | 16 | 30 | 15 | 41 (+11) | 13 (-1) |
| Kula | 26 | 9 | 22 | 8 | 23 (+1) | 13 (+5) |
| Lahaina | 22 | 10 | 25 | 7 | 22 (-3) | 4 (-3) |
| Makawao | 16 | 17 | 17 | 21 | 11 (-6) | 24 (+3) |
| Napili/Kahana/Hono… | 13 | 3 | 15 | 3 | 15 | 3 |
| Pukalani | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 (+2) | 3 (+1) |
| Sprecks/Paia | 9 | 3 | 9 | 2 | 11 (+2) | 0 (-2) |
| Wailea | 22 | 6 | 18 | 5 | 15 (-3) | 6 (+1) |
| Wailuku | 20 | 32 | 18 | 36 | 16 (-2) | 42 (+6) |
Five Notable Things About the End of April Home Inventory
The number of active home listings on April 30th was the same as on March 31st. However, the number of pending home sales on April 30th was 9% higher than on March 31st.
Looking at active inventory by price point, the number of active listings increased in three, decreased in four, and remained unchanged in two. The biggest increase in inventory occurred in the $1,000,000-$1,499,999 price range. The biggest decrease in active listings occurred in the $2,000,000-$2,999,999 price range. It’s also notable that active listings decreased under $1,000,000.
Looking at pending inventory by price point, the number of pending sales increased in three, decreased in three, and remained unchanged at three. The biggest increase occurred between $1,000,000 and $1,499,999. Other notable increases occurred between $2,000,000-$2,999,999 and below $750,000. The biggest decrease in pending sales occurred between $1,500,000 and $1,999,999 and $750,000 and $999,999.
Looking at active home inventory by community, active inventory increased in six, decreased in three, and remained unchanged in three. The biggest increase in home inventory occurred in Kihei. Makawao and Haiku active listings decreased the most.
Pending sales increased in seven communities, decreased in six, and remained unchanged in one. Kula, Wailuku, and Haiku all had notable increases in pending sales. While a number of communities saw a decrease, most were small. Lahaina’s three fewer pending sales were the most substantial change.
End of April Maui Condo Inventory
The tables below show active and pending condo sales by price point and community on the last day of February, March and April. Wailea and the price points between $1,500,000 and $5,000,000 continue to receive a modest boost in pending sales due to long-term developer contracts at La’i Loa, but this impact continues to diminish. As of the end of April, sales for approximately fifty of the seventy-five units in the development had closed.
| February 29, 2024 | March 31, 2024 | April 30, 2024 | ||||
| Active | Pending | Active | Pending | Active | Pending | |
| <$250,000 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 (+2) | 0 |
| $250,000-$499,999 | 16 | 12 | 28 | 12 | 24 (-4) | 12 |
| $500,000-$749,999 | 44 | 32 | 50 | 32 | 68 (+18) | 28 (+4) |
| $750,000-$999,999 | 79 | 28 | 93 | 33 | 103 (+10) | 25 (-8) |
| $1,000,000-$1,499,999 | 87 | 28 | 89 | 29 | 106 (+17) | 19 (-10) |
| $1,500,000-$1,999,999 | 53 | 23 | 55 | 20 | 61 (+5) | 16 (-4) |
| $2,000,000-$2,999,999 | 44 | 30 | 54 | 21 | 58 (+4) | 16 (-5) |
| $3,000,000-$4,999,999 | 28 | 16 | 32 | 12 | 29 (-3) | 8 (+4) |
| $5,000,000-$9,999,999 | 18 | 3 | 22 | 0 | 19 (-3) | 4 (+4) |
| $10,000,000+ | 8 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 8 | 0 (-1) |
| Total | 377 | 173 | 432 | 160 | 479 (+47) | 128 (-32) |
| February 29, 2024 | March 31, 2024 | April 30, 2024 | ||||
| Active | Pending | Active | Pending | Active | Pending | |
| Ka’anapali | 62 | 19 | 74 | 15 | 79 (+5) | 8 (-7) |
| Kahului | 5 | 4 | 9 | 1 | 15 (+6) | 2 (+1) |
| Kapalua | 26 | 5 | 27 | 5 | 27 | 6 (+1) |
| Kihei | 121 | 50 | 140 | 55 | 161 (+21) | 34 (-21) |
| Lahaina | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 (+1) | 0 |
| Ma’alaea | 9 | 7 | 14 | 8 | 18 (+4) | 4 (-4) |
| Napili/Kahana/Hono… | 86 | 18 | 94 | 25 | 103 | 29 (+4) |
| Pukalani | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Wailea | 60 | 58 | 66 | 39 | 64 (-2) | 36 (-3) |
| Wailuku | 5 | 10 | 5 | 10 | 8 (+3) | 7 (-3) |
Five Notable Things About The End of April Condo Inventory
The number of active condo listings increased 10.9% between the last day of March and the last day of April. That is the eighth consecutive month that condo inventory increased. It also marks the first month where active inventory reached pre-COVID-19 levels. Pending condo sales dropped 20% between the end of March and the end of April.
Looking at end-of-the-month active condo inventory by price point, active listings decreased in six price ranges, increased in three, and remained unchanged in one. Inventory increased at all price points between $500,000 and $2,999,999. The biggest increases occurred between $500,000-$749,999 and $1,000,000-$1,499,999. Inventory decreased between $250,000-$499,999 and between $3,000,000 and $10,000,000.
End-of-the-month pending sales increased in three price points, decreased in five, and remained unchanged in two. The biggest decrease in pending sales occurred in the price points between $750,000 and $2,999,999. The most notable increase in pending sales occurred between $3,000,000 and $10,000,000.
Looking at active inventory by community, end-of-the-month active listings increased in six communities, decreased in one, and remained unchanged in three. Kihei condo inventory increased the most. Kahului and Wailuku had notable percentage increases in inventory. Wailea is the only community where inventory decreased.
End-of-the-month pending sales decreased in five communities, increased in three communities, and remained unchanged in two. Kihei experienced the biggest dip in pending sales. Ka’anapali and Ma’alaea also had notable decreases in pending condo sales. The Napili, Kahana and Honokowai area saw the only real notable increase in pending sales.
Market Observations
Looking at the April numbers above, the condo market stands out. It starts with the new pending sales numbers for April. The 60 new pending sales are well below last year and far below a typical pre-COVID-19 year. Several factors dampened condo activity in April. Mortgage rates climbed throughout the month, making borrowing costs higher. Several larger complexes on the island are also doing special assessments. Some of the complexes are addressing major maintenance projects, some are doing assessments to cover increasing insurance costs, and some have assessments to address both.
Insurance is increasing the costs of condo ownership. Associations are all seeing increases in their annual insurance bills causing many to increase maintenance fees. A smaller number of condos are seeing massive increases in their bills necessitating the aforementioned assessments.
The discussion of regulatory changes could have also been on the mind of some buyers in April. The State of Hawaii House and Senate advanced a bill that would allow the counties to make modifications to zoning including the right to further restrict short-term rentals.
While this is a review of the April numbers, I would be remiss if I did not mention the events that unfolded to date in May. The mayor of Maui wasted little time taking advantage of the new state zoning bill. On May 2nd, he announced a proposal to sunset vacation rentals in Apartment-zoned condos.
Over 7,000 condos on the “Minatoya List” could be impacted in Maui County. The mayor’s bill still needs to go through the planning commission, the planning committee of the county council, and the full county council. It is also clear that litigation against the bill is likely.
It is too early to say if the bill will pass, and if it might see revisions. That makes it hard to assess what the long term implications will be. That said, we are seeing immediate impacts to the condo market. New listings at Minatoya condos are up sharply and buyer activity at the Minatoya condos is down significantly. While it seems like most sellers are holding their prices close to recent sales, there are definitely a portion of owners who are being more aggressive with their price reductions. We will be keeping a close eye on the condo market in future market updates and other posts on the blog.
The home market is not seeing the same changes that the condo market has seen over the last two months. While demand remains lower due to affordability challenges, inventory also remains quite low. The low inventory is continuing to support higher prices in the market. It is worth noting that conditions in the home market vary by both price point and geography. Properties priced close to the current median continue to see the strongest buyer demand.
A Little Maui Beauty to Brighten This Post
