It’s the beginning of a new month and the end of the first half of the year. Milestones like that typically call for a look back at first half of the year stats. That said, the market in the first quarter of the year is a lot different than the market now. While we intend to look at the June sales numbers in the next musings, the focus of this edition is on statistics that are more relevant to current conditions. The three main statistics reviewed in Volume XIII include inventory, price reductions and the number of properties going under contract within ten days of coming to market.
Inventory Watch for Single Family Homes
At the end of May, we started documenting end of month inventory for different communities and price points. We did it again on the last day of June. The intent is to track inventory at a more granular level than the island wide inventory statistics released by the local Realtor’s Association.
| May 31, 2022 | June 30, 2022 | |||
| Active | Pending | Active | Pending | |
| <$750,000 | 6 | 22 | 6 | 16 (-6) |
| $750,000-$999,999 | 19 | 54 | 32 (+13) | 63 (+9) |
| $1,000,000-$1,499,999 | 43 | 37 | 58 (+15) | 34 (-3) |
| $1,500,000-$1,999,999 | 30 | 27 | 44 (+14) | 22 (-5) |
| $2,000,000-$2,999,999 | 37 | 14 | 34 (-3) | 15 (+1) |
| $3,000,000-$4.999,999 | 24 | 11 | 27 (+3) | 10 (-1) |
| $5,000,000-$9,999,999 | 22 | 8 | 23 (+1) | 8 |
| $10,000,000-$19,999,999 | 9 | 2 | 13 (+4) | 0 (-2) |
| $20,000,000+ | 3 | 1 | 4 (+1) | 1 |
| Totals | 193 | 176 | 241 (+48) | 169 (-7) |
| May 31, 2022 | June 30, 2022 | |||
| Active | Pending | Active | Pending | |
| Haiku | 15 | 12 | 20 (+5) | 13 (+1) |
| Hana | 5 | 3 | 4 (-1) | 2 (-1) |
| Ka’anapali | 13 | 6 | 11 (-2) | 7 (+1) |
| Kahului | 11 | 24 | 8 (-3) | 27 (+3) |
| Kapalua | 4 | 2 | 5 (+1) | 3 (+1) |
| Kihei | 27 | 25 | 45 (+18) | 22 (-3) |
| Kula | 24 | 12 | 25 (+1) | 13 (+1) |
| Lahaina | 15 | 15 | 20 (+5) | 18(+3) |
| Makawao | 11 | 17 | 13 (+2) | 12 (-5) |
| Napili/Kahana/Hono… | 12 | 5 | 12 | 3 (-2) |
| Pukalani | 5 | 12 | 12 (+7) | 7 (-5) |
| Spreckelsville /Paia | 12 | 4 | 11 (-1) | 2 (-2) |
| Wailea/Makena | 8 | 5 | 13 (+5) | 4 (-1) |
| Wailuku | 28 | 32 | 39 (+11) | 33 (+1) |
End of June Home Inventory Overview
Here are a couple of quick notes about the data above to provide some framework. The price ranges cover all of Maui. They do not include the islands of Lanai or Molokai. The list of districts above is limited to those with the most activity.
- The overall trends on inventory are pretty clear with just under a 25% increase in active listings and a 4% drop in pending sales over the last month. A substantial spike in interest rates provided the backdrop for this shift in active and pending sales.
- Honing in on various price points, you can see a little more variability in the market.
- Active inventory below $750,000 remained unchanged while pending sales decreased.
- When you bump up to the $750,000-$999,999 range, inventory increases are substantial, but it is also the price range with the largest increase in pending sales activity.
- The $1,000,000-$2,000,000 range saw a significant increase in active listings with a drop in pending sales activity.
- The luxury home market experienced more modest increases in inventory and the decline in pending sales is less significant.
- The variability in numbers at a district level is a little more of a head scratcher.
- Kihei inventory grew the most with a 66% increase in active homes for sale.
- Neighboring communities saw different trajectories in inventory. Kahului’s inventory fell while the number of active homes in Wailuku grew almost 40%.
- Within the luxury markets, Wailea and Makena experienced a pretty healthy bump in inventory. Kapalua has one more active home listing while active inventory in Ka’anapali is down.
Inventory Watch for Condos
| May 31, 2022 | June 30, 2022 | |||
| Active | Pending | Active | Pending | |
| <$250,000 | 5 | 9 | 2 (-3) | 8 (-1) |
| $250,000-$499,999 | 12 | 23 | 19 (+7) | 25 (+2) |
| $500,000-$749,999 | 18 | 55 | 31 (+13) | 40 (-15) |
| $750,000-$999,999 | 29 | 54 | 44 (+15) | 46 (-8) |
| $1,000,000-$1,499,999 | 23 | 49 | 29 (+6) | 30 (-19) |
| $1,500,000-$1,999,999 | 21 | 34 | 28 (+7) | 34 |
| $2,000,000-$2,999,999 | 19 | 40 | 20 (+1) | 36 (-4) |
| $3,000,000-$4,999,999 | 12 | 22 | 11 (+1) | 25 (+3) |
| $5,000,000-$9,999,999 | 7 | 7 | 11 (+4) | 3 (-1) |
| $10,000,000+ | 3 | 0 | 4 (+1) | 0 |
| Totals | 149 | 293 | 199 (+50) | 247 (-46) |
| May 31, 2022 | June 30, 2022 | |||
| Active | Pending | Active | Pending | |
| Ka’anapali | 23 | 23 | 23 | 15 (-8) |
| Kahului | 5 | 8 | 4 (+1) | 3 (-5) |
| Kapalua | 7 | 15 | 12 (+5) | 9 (-6) |
| Kihei | 35 | 95 | 55 (+20) | 74 (-21) |
| Lahaina | 14 | 8 | 16 (+2) | 5 (-3) |
| Maalaea | 3 | 5 | 5 (+2) | 5 |
| Napili/Kahana/Hono… | 34 | 39 | 48 (+14) | 34 (-5) |
| Wailea | 16 | 91 | 23 (+7) | 85 (-6) |
| Wailuku | 9 | 11 | 12 (+3) | 12 (+1) |
End of June Maui Condo Inventory Overview
As with the home market, the price points table includes all condos on Maui, but it does not include condos on Molokai or Lanai. The table with districts is limited to the districts with the most activity. As mentioned in the last Musings, pending sales at La’i Loa at Wailea Hills skew the data in Wailea and the $1,500,000-$5,000,000 price ranges. There are 75 pending sales in that development based on contracts penned in 2020 and the first quarter of 2021. Those pending sales won’t start to close until sometime in 2023.
- The increase in condo inventory between May and June is more pronounced with a 33% jump in active condo listings. Pending condo sales dropped 16%.
- Honing in on the different price points, all price ranges with the exception of condos priced below $250,000 experienced an increase in active inventory.
- The biggest increase occurred in the $500,000 to $749,999 price range.
- On the pending sales front, all but three price ranges had a decrease. The $250,000 to $499,999 price range saw a modest increase. The number of pending condos sales stayed the same from $1,500,000 to $1,999,999. The $10,000,000 plus condo market remained unchanged with no pending listings.
- Looking at inventory from a district level, active inventory increased in all communities except for Ka’anapali.
- Ka’anapali condos are the outlier when it comes to resort condo inventory. Kapalua inventory increased 71% and Wailea inventory increased 44%. It is worth noting these increases are coming from near historic lows in inventory. That 71% increase in condo inventory in Kapalua is due to just 5 more listings.
- Other notable increases in inventory occurred in the markets that were the busiest earlier this year. Kihei active condo inventory increased 57%. Napili, Kahana and Honokowai active listings increased 41%.
Price Reductions
As of July 4th, 34.03% of all active home listings on Maui reduced their asking price one or more times. That compares to 33% on May 24th and 29.5% on June 7th. After seeing a small dip in price reductions in early June, those numbers appear to be rising again.
For condos, 24.63% of all active condo listings reduced their price one or more time. The increase in price reductions is steady. The percentage of active listings that reduced price was 18.2% and 20.9% on May 24th and June 7th respectively.
It’s important to note that the higher number of price reductions isn’t indicative of decreasing values at this point in time. In many cases, this is sellers who priced ambitiously adjusting to the realities of a shifting market.
Market Response to New Listings
Another metric that we’ve tracked in our market musings is the percentage of new listings going under contract within 10 days. We started to track this in mid February, a time period when competition for inventory remained incredibly strong. At that time, 56% of all new listings were under contract within 10 days. As posted in Musings XI, that number dipped to 35.54% for the period between May 18th and May 25th. For the period between June 14th and June 21st, the number dropped to 25.37%.
While the number above shows a pretty significant cooling of the market, context is key. Between June 14th and June 21st of 2019, only 17.28% of all listings went under contract within the first ten days of coming to market. There are still buyers out there acting quickly when well priced properties come to market.
Takeaways for Buyers and Sellers
When interest rates spiked over 6% in early June, the hyperbolic takes on the real estate market came fast and furious. The crowing of the bubble watchers became deafening. In places like Boise and Phoenix, it looks like there may be some drastic shifts in the market. That said, what’s true for Boise may not be true for Maui. Our goal is to strip out the hype so buyers and sellers can make informed decisions.
To be clear, the Maui Market continues to cool down from the frenzied market of earlier this year. While inventory is growing, the growth in inventory started later than most markets on the mainland. We are still seeing inventory levels well below normal. While pending sales are decreasing, the percentage of properties going under contract in ten days or less is higher than during the same period of 2019. As the numbers above show, market conditions are showing variability based on location and price points. Where you are buying or selling in the market will impact your experience.
Buyers shopping in most price points will appreciate the increased inventory compared to the scarcity of earlier this year. While competition is down, well priced properties may still see bidding wars. This is particularly true at the lower priced points of the market where inventory remains truly scarce.
Prospective sellers will want to look closely at conditions specific to their price point and community when pricing their property. In those areas where inventory is growing the most and demand is shrinking, you will want to be particularly mindful of not overpricing your property. Sales will likely take longer. With buyers largely moving out of the FOMO mentality, a little give and take may be necessary to get deals done.
Some Maui Beauty to Brighten This Post
Contact The Maui Real Estate Team
Questions about the market or this post? Thinking of buying or selling? Contact The Maui Real Estate Team. We look forward to being of assistance.
