Maui Real Estate Market Update Q4 2023 Vol. 1

Turtles-on-the-beach-

It’s that time again. This post takes a look back at real estate activity in Maui during the month of October. It includes data on new inventory, new pending sales and closed transactions. We also look at end of the month inventory levels by price point and community. After digesting the numbers, I give a few thoughts on the market and specifically the impacts of the fire and high interest rates.

Before we get to the numbers, I am still working on a permanent title for what was formerly known as the Maui Market Musings. This month’s title is a particularly straight forward description. Consider it a milquetoast Maui market musings. Now, that’s some alliteration. On to the numbers…

October Market Activity

October 2023October 2022October 2021October 2020October 2019October 2018
Homes778197103137127
Condos9792183181169176
New Inventory in October of 2023 Compared to the Previous Five Octobers

New home listings for October are down about 5% compared to October of 2022. October 2023 new listings are down 44% and 39% respectively compared to October of 2019 and 2018.

New condo inventory is up 5% during the last month compared to October of 2022. It is still well below a “normal” October coming in 43% and 45% below October of 2019 and 2018 respectively.

October 2023October 2022October 2021October 2020October 2019October 2018
Homes 4976106929783
Condos5784129120137130
New Pending Sales in October Compared to the Previous Five Octobers

October of 2023 proved to be a quiet month for new pending home sales. Last month’s numbers came in 38% below October of 2022. They came in 49% below October of 2019 and 41% below October of 2018.

New Pending Condo sales fell 33% compared to October of 2022. The number of new pending condo sales came in 59% and 57% below October of 2019 and 2018 respectively.

October 2023October 2022October 2021October 2020October 2019October 2018
Homes4476106929783
Condos6084129120137130
Closed Transaction in October compared to the Previous Five Octobers

The 44 homes that sold in October of 2023 is 43% below last October. The number of sold homes is 55% below October of 2019 and 47% below October of 2018.

The number of condos sold this October came in 29% below last October. The 60 condos sold last month is 57% below October of 2019 and 54% below October of 2018.

End of October Maui Home Inventory

The charts below show active and pending home inventory by price points and community at the end of October. The end of September and the end of August numbers are provided for additional context.

8/31/239/30/2310/31/23
ActivePendingActive PendingActivePending
<750,00051010912 (+2)6 (-3)
$750,000-$999,9991721181322 (+4)16 (+3)
$1,000,000-$1,499,9993445403844 (+4)39 (+1)
$1,500,000-$1,999,9992118281229 (+1)14 (+2)
$2,000,000-$2,999,999251331935 (+4)7 (-2)
$3,000,000-$4,999,999248267267
$5,000,000-$9,999,999298314314
$10,000,000-$19,999,999140110110
$20,000,000+404040
Totals17312319992214 (+15)93 (+1)
Maui Active and Pending Home Inventory by price point on the last days of August, September and October.
8/31/239/30/2310/31/23
ActivePendingActivePendingActivePending
Haiku177201024 (+4)7 (-3)
Hana12012111 (-1)1
Ka’anapali8511211 0 (-2)
Kahului511587 (+2)6 (-2)
Kapalua735152 (+1)
Kihei1618271331 (+4)11 (-2)
Kula1712251026 (+1)8 (-2)
Lahaina133111105 (+4)
Makawao141512141116 (+2)
Napili/Kahana/Hono…5481103 (+2)
Pukalani838291 (-1)
Sprecks/Paia/Kuau848291 (-1)
Wailea194174204
Wailuku133321232525 (+2)
Maui Active and Pending Home Inventory by district on the last day of August, Septembers and October

Five Notable Things About the End of October Home Inventory

  • Active inventory of homes for sale increased by 7.5% between the end of September and the end of August. The increase in inventory appears to be less from new listings and more from relatively low buyer activity. The number of pending home sales increased by just one between the end of September and the end of October.
  • Looking at active home inventory by price point, all price points below $3,000,000 saw inventory increase. Active inventory was unchanged at all price points above $3,000,000.
  • Pending home sales increased at three price points, decreased at two price points and remained unchanged at all price points over $3,000,000.
  • Looking at active inventory by community, the vast majority of districts did not see any change in active listings. It increased in four communities. Kihei and Haiku saw the biggest increase. Active inventory decreased in just one community.
  • The pending home sales by community proved to be more of a mixed bag. Pending sales decreased in seven communities. The number of pending home sales remained unchanged in two communities, and pending sales increased in four districts. It is notable that the Lahaina district saw the biggest increase in pending home sales with four. To be clear, all of those homes are located in areas outside the burn zone. The majority are in the Launiupoko neighborhood.

End of October Maui Condo Inventory

The charts below provide end of the month active and pending condo inventory by price point and district. It is worth noting that the Wailea continues to a see big bump in pending sales due to condo under contract in La’i Loa at Wailea Hills. The Lai’i Loa bump also impacts pending sales numbers in the $1,500,000 to $4,000,000 price range. That said, the bump is a little less pronounced as the development’s first nine sales recorded on the last two days of October.

8/31/20239/30/2310/31/2023
ActivePendingActivePendingActivePending
<$250,000110200 (-2)
$250,000-$499,999165141113 (-1)10 (-1)
$500,000-$749,9992935322435 (+3)19 (-5)
$750,000-$999,9992524401051 (+11)17 (+7)
$1,000,000-$1,499,9992916371244 (+7)12
$1,500,000-$1,999,9992129293031 (+2)25 (-5)
$2,000,000-$2,999,9991737203919 (-1)33 (-6)
$3,000,000-$4,999,9991215121718 (+6)15 (-2)
$5,000,000-$9,999,999101708 (+1)0
$10,000,000+30103 (+2)1 (+1)
Totals163163192145222 (+30)132 (-12)
Active and Pending Condo Inventory by Price Point on the Last Day of August, September and October.
8/31/20239/30/202310/31/2023
ActivePendingActivePendingActivePending
Ka’anapali22734940 (+6)7 (-2)
Kahului422521 (-4)
Kapalua14011112 (+1)2 (+1)
Kihei5140642567 (+3)27 (+2)
Lahaina100000
Ma’alaea25145 (+4)1 (-3)
Napili/Kahana/Hono…4119471360 (+13)16 (+3)
Wailea2081267930 (+4)70 (-9)
Wailuku89795 (+2)8 (-1)
Active and Pending Condo Inventory by Price Point on the Last Day of August, September and October.

Five Notable Things about the End of October Maui Condo Inventory

  • Active condo inventory increased almost 16% between the last day of September and the last day of October. Pending condo sales fell just over 9% between the end of September and the end of October.
  • Active condo inventory increased in all but three price points. Inventory decreased between $250,000 and $499,999 and the $2,000,000-$2,999,999 price range. There continues to be no inventory under $250,000.
  • Pending condo sales decreased in all but four price points. The only increases in pending sales occurred between $750,000 and $999,999 and over $10,000,000. Pending sales remained unchanged between $1,000,000 and $1,499,999. There continue to be no condos under contract between $5,000,000 and $9,999,999.
  • Looking at active condo inventory by district, almost all districts saw an increase in active listings between the last day of September and the last day of October. Ka’anapali and the Napili, Kahana and Honokowai area experienced the biggest increase. Kahului condo inventory remained unchanged. Lahaina also remained unchanged with no active listings. All condo complexes in Lahaina were impacted in some way by the August fire.
  • Pending condo sales decreased in five districts between the last day of September and the last day of October. Wailea saw the biggest decrease with nine fewer pending sales. That matches the nine sales recorded at La’i Loa. Pending sales increased modestly in Kapalua, Kihei and Napili, Kahana and Honokowai.

Market Thoughts

Needless to say, it was a quiet month of October for the Maui Real Estate market. The market is feeling the combined effects of both the aftermath of the August fires and higher interest rates.

You can see the impact of the fires looking at the data for West Maui. Condo inventory in Ka’anapali is up 82% between the end of August and the end of October. I don’t have any good data on historical monthly condo inventory in Ka’anapali to compare current inventory to normal pre-Covid inventory. That said, the 40 condos listed at the end of October is the highest monthly total that I have for Ka’anapali since I started tracking the data in May of 2022. The previous high is 27 active listings in November of 2022.

The shift in active Ka’anapali Condo listings isn’t the only notable number from the end of October West Maui inventory.

  • Napili, Kahana and Honokowai condo and home inventory is up 47% and 100% respectively since the end of August.
  • Ka’anapali pending home sales went from 5 at the end of August down to 0 at the end of October.
  • As mentioned above, the one outlier is the pending home sales in the Lahaina district. The numbers are up slightly from the end of August.
  • Kapalua, the area on the West Side furthest from the Lahaina fire, hasn’t seen the inventory shifts that the rest of the West side is seeing.

It’s not a surprise that we are seeing an increase in active listings in Ka’anapali. The area was closed for tourism until November 8th. There are still a huge number of residents displaced by the fires living in the hotels. As primarily a second home market, fewer tourists mean fewer potential buyers. The question is whether this market continues to be impacted by its proximity to the fires even as more visitors return down the road.

The fire isn’t the only reason for slower market activity on island. Rates that hit as high as 8% in October deterred buyers. While rates have since come down from their recent peak, you can see the recent impact of high rates in the October closed transactions. A whopping 63.3% of the condos purchases and 50% of the home sales were cash. That is the highest percentage of cash transactions for either property type this year. This is a reflection of more financed buyers being priced out of the market.

One other sign of the impact of high interest rates is evident with something we aren’t seeing in the numbers. As mentioned in our last market update, we attended an event sponsored by the local Realtor’s association. One of the speakers was a broker from Paradise, California. She talked about the big increase in sales activities in communities close to Paradise within a couple of months of the fires. The surge stemmed from Paradise residents using insurance proceeds to buy new homes. As the numbers above show, we just aren’t seeing any big surge in pending sales.

While I know there are people on island who have purchased replacement properties with their insurance proceeds, many others don’t have enough to buy or at least buy what they want or need. The high interest rates are compounding the already high prices.

One last note, It still feels awkward writing about the fires and the impact on the real estate market in more abstract terms. There is a very real human component to our current market. In addition to the insurance challenges, many island residents continue to struggle to find long term rentals in the aftermath of the fire. If you are a Maui Property owner who has long term housing available, please sign up online at Maui Hale Match. If you are looking for other ways to help people impacted by the fires, check out our How to Help Maui post.

A Little Maui Beauty to Brighten This Post

A reprieve from real estate numbers. Hawaii Green Sea Turtles rest on the beach along Maui's North Shore.

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