As the calendar flipped over to 2025, it felt a little harder to turn the page from 2024. Maybe it was my daughter’s prolonged holiday break or the fact that the family Christmas decorations stayed up much later than usual. It seems only appropriate to squeeze in the December Market Report right before February. December marked the end of a slower year for real estate activity in Maui. The period from May onward marked one of the slowest times for real estate sales in over 25 years.
December followed recent trends, with sales and pending sales well below normal. Keep reading the paragraphs below to learn more about the December pending sales, closed transactions, new listings, and end-of-the-month inventory. I close things out with a few thoughts on current market conditions.
December Market Activity
December New Listings
| December 2024 | December 2023 | December 2022 | December 2021 | December 2020 | December 2017-19 Avg. | |
| Homes | 86 | 71 | 92 | 98 | 115 | 127 |
| Condos | 160 | 177 | 79 | 164 | 153 | 163 |
December new home listings increased 21.1% over December 2023. That said, they are still 32.3% below the average number of new listings in December between 2017 and 2019. This December’s new condo listings decreased 9.6% compared to last December. This December’s new condo listings were just 1.8% below the average number of new listings in December 2017, 2018, and 2019.
December New Pending Sales
| December 2024 | December 2023 | December 2022 | December 2021 | December 2020 | December 2017-19 Avg. | |
| Homes | 43 | 64 | 52 | 69 | 117 | 75 |
| Condos | 61 | 81 | 49 | 138 | 140 | 110 |
New Pending home sales in December were 32.8% below last December. This December’s new pending sales were 42.7% below the December average between 2017 and 2019. New pending condo sales dropped 24.9% below last December. This December’s new pending sales were 44.5% below the average number of December new pending condo sales for 2017-2019.
December Closed Transactions
| December 2024 | December 2023 | December 2022 | December 2021 | December 2020 | December 2017-19 Avg. | |
| Homes | 54 | 55 | 64 | 113 | 106 | 92 |
| Condos | 52 | 89 | 67 | 171 | 166 | 128 |
December home sales were 1.8% below last December’s. However, this December’s home sales were 41.3% below the average for December between 2017 and 2019. December condo sales fell 41.6% compared to last December. However, they were 59.4% below the average for December condo sales between 2017 and 2019.
End of December Maui Home Inventory
| October 31, 2024 | November 30, 2024 | December 31, 2024 | ||||
| Active | Pending | Active | Pending | Active | Pending | |
| <$750,000 | 4 | 7 | 8 | 11 | 5 (-3) | 11 |
| $750,000-$999,999 | 29 | 19 | 28 | 17 | 24 (-4) | 15 (-2) |
| $1,000,000-$1,499,99 | 60 | 50 | 60 | 45 | 61 (+1) | 39 (-6) |
| $1,500,000-$1,999,999 | 56 | 23 | 64 | 23 | 62 (-2) | 27 (+4) |
| $2,000,000-$2,999,999 | 47 | 12 | 52 | 11 | 58 (+6) | 10 (-1) |
| $3,000,000-$4,999,999 | 45 | 9 | 51 | 6 | 64 (+13) | 4 (-2) |
| $5,000,000-$9,999,999 | 47 | 4 | 48 | 5 | 50 (+2) | 4 (-1) |
| $10,000,000-$19,999,999 | 20 | 0 | 21 | 0 | 21 | 0 |
| $20,000,000+ | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 6 (+3) | 0 |
| Totals | 311 | 124 | 335 | 118 | 351 (+16) | 110 (-8) |
| October 31, 2024 | November 30, 2024 | December 31, 2024 | ||||
| Active | Pending | Active | Pending | Active | Pending | |
| Haiku | 26 | 9 | 30 | 10 | 27 (-3) | 13 (+3) |
| Hana | 19 | 1 | 19 | 3 | 18 (-1) | 3 |
| Ka’anapali | 19 | 4 | 17 | 2 | 21 (+4) | 1 (-1) |
| Kahului | 15 | 14 | 21 | 10 | 16 (-5) | 9 (-1) |
| Kapalua | 10 | 1 | 11 | 1 | 11 | 1 |
| Kihei | 47 | 10 | 52 | 10 | 51 (-1) | 15 (+5) |
| Kula | 28 | 12 | 31 | 8 | 29 (-2) | 8 |
| Lahaina | 17 | 3 | 25 | 4 | 22 (-3) | 2 (-2) |
| Makawao | 8 | 18 | 12 | 18 | 15 (+3) | 15 (-3) |
| Napili/Kahana/Hono… | 17 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 24 (+5) | 2 (+2) |
| Pukalani | 5 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 5 (-2) | 3 (+1) |
| Sprecks/Paia | 14 | 0 | 13 | 2 | 19 (+6) | 1 (-1) |
| Wailea | 22 | 3 | 20 | 4 | 27 (+7) | 0 (-4) |
| Wailuku | 48 | 41 | 46 | 39 | 46 | 33 (-6) |
Five Notable Things About The End of December Home Inventory
Between November 30th and New Year’s Eve, the inventory of active home listings increased 4.8%. The number of pending home sales decreased 6.8%
Looking at active home listings by price point, the inventory increased in five price points, decreased in three, and remained unchanged in one. The biggest increase in inventory occurred between $2,000,000 and $5,000,000, with a notable increase in properties listed for over $20,000,000. This appears to be from second home sellers coming to market prior to or at the start of our busier visitor season. The bulk of the decrease in inventory occurred below $1,000,000. That may just be fewer local sellers coming to market during the holiday season.
Pending home sales increased in one price point, decreased in five, and remained unchanged in three. The one price point where pending sales increased was between $1,500,000 and $1,999,999. The biggest decrease in pending sales occurred between $1,000,000 and $1,499,999. That price range skews towards people buying primary residences. I would guess some of the decrease can again be attributed to the holidays.
Looking at active listings by community, active inventory increased in five communities, decreased in seven, and remained unchanged in two. Wailea and the Spreckelsville/Paia area saw the most significant increase in active home listings. Kahului and Lahaina had the most substantial decrease in active listings.
Pending home sales increased in four communities, decreased in seven, and remained unchanged in three. Kihei and Haiku were the two communities with the most significant increase in pending home sales. Wailuku and Wailea’s pending home sales decreased the most.
End of December Condo Inventory
| October 31, 2024 | November 30, 2024 | December 31, 2024 | ||||
| Active | Pending | Active | Pending | Active | Pending | |
| <$250,000 | 11 | 4 | 10 | 2 | 9 (-1) | 1 (-1) |
| $250,000-$499,999 | 47 | 9 | 57 | 10 | 64 (+7) | 9 (-1) |
| $500,000-$749,999 | 173 | 23 | 170 | 17 | 172 (-2) | 30 (+13) |
| $750,000-$999,999 | 132 | 13 | 142 | 16 | 147 (+5) | 13 (-3) |
| $1,000,000-$1,499,999 | 124 | 13 | 135 | 9 | 142 (+7) | 11 (+2) |
| $1,500,000-$1,999,999 | 47 | 6 | 53 | 2 | 66 (+13) | 1 (-1) |
| $2,000,000-$2,999,999 | 50 | 8 | 52 | 8 | 55 (+3) | 5 (-3) |
| $3,000,000-$4,999,999 | 32 | 2 | 33 | 3 | 36 (+3) | 2 (-1) |
| $5,000,000-$9,999,999 | 18 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 22 (+4) | 0 |
| $10,000,000+ | 6 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 8 | 0 |
| Totals | 640 | 78 | 678 | 67 | 721 (+43) | 72 (+5) |
| October 31, 2024 | November 30, 2024 | December 31, 2024 | ||||
| Active | Pending | Active | Pending | Active | Pending | |
| Ka’anapali | 86 | 6 | 93 | 5 | 93 | 9 (+4) |
| Kahului | 14 | 4 | 15 | 3 | 13 (-2) | 2 (-1) |
| Kapalua | 34 | 0 | 38 | 2 | 42 (+4) | 1 (-1) |
| Kihei | 227 | 32 | 224 | 32 | 237 (+13) | 31 (-1) |
| Lahaina | 12 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 14 (+2) | 3 (+3) |
| Ma’alaea | 19 | 4 | 21 | 2 | 20 (-1) | 2 |
| Napili/Kahana/Hono… | 153 | 10 | 167 | 9 | 176 (+9) | 11 (+2) |
| Pukalani | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 (+1) | 0 |
| Wailea | 60 | 12 | 66 | 7 | 83 (+17) | 5 (-2) |
| Wailuku | 33 | 8 | 39 | 7 | 36 (-3) | 8 (+1) |
Five Notable Things About the End of December Condo Inventory
Between November 30th and New Year’s Eve, active condo listings increased 6.3%, while pending condo sales increased 7.5%. However, the percentage increases are somewhat misleading. There were far more new active listings than new pending sales. The higher number of active listings meant that even a significantly larger number of new listings made for a more minor percentage change.
Looking at active condo listings by price point, inventory increased in seven price ranges, decreased in two, and remained unchanged in one. The only decrease in inventory occurred with condos priced below $250,000 and those priced between $500,000 and $749,999. The only price range where inventory was unchanged was with condos priced $10,000,000 and above.
Pending condo sales increased in two price ranges, decreased in six, and remained unchanged in two. The $500,000-$749,999 price range had a notable jump in pending sales during the month.
Looking at the end-of-the-month inventory by community, active listings increased in six districts, decreased in three, and remained unchanged in one. Wailea active condo inventory increased the most, both by numbers and percentages. Again, I would surmise this is due to sellers coming to market at the start of our traditional visitor season. Kihei and the Napili, Kahana, and Honokowai area also had a notable increase.
The number of pending sales increased in four communities, decreased in four communities, and remained unchanged in two. The most significant increase in pending sales occurred in Ka’anapali and Lahaina. The Lahaina pending sales were all at Lahaina Shores. These were the first units in the complex to come to market after the Lahaina Fire.
Market Observations
December proved to be a quiet month in the Maui Real Estate market. Some of that is seasonality. December is a hit-or-miss month for Maui Real Estate. Local buyers tend to mirror the national trend where buyers put home buying on the back burner as they focus on holiday activities. December 2023 was an exception. Increasing numbers of displaced Lahaina Residents used insurance proceeds to find new homes on island. That type of buying is in the past and with elevated mortgage rates, there was less incentive for local buyers.
The X factor that usually differentiates a quiet December from a busier December is end-of-the-month second home buyer activity. Some years, a significant number of holiday visitors come to the island with the intent to buy a new home or condo. This wasn’t one of those years. The resort communities Wailea, Makena, Kapalua, and Ka’anapali ended the year with just two houses and 15 condos under contract collectively.
Now that we are approaching the end of January, recent pending sales numbers show that slower buyer activity continued through the first few weeks of the new year. In the last week, buyer activity increased, with almost as many properties going pending in the last eight days as in the first twenty.
The market continues to face some headwinds. For the home market, affordability is a factor. Prices are still hovering around all-time highs. Mortgage rates are fluctuating around the 7% mark. At this point, there aren’t too many housing analysts projecting that rates will drop significantly in the near future.
The condo market has affordability challenges and additional factors weighing on buyer demand. The county council has yet to decide on the mayor’s proposed bill that would prohibit short-term rentals in apartment-zoned condominiums (also known as Minatyoa List condos). The council is still waiting for the completion of an economic impact study they commissioned to better evaluate the potential impact on the local economy. Rising insurance rates are also impacting condo associations and maintenance fees.
At this point, the quieter market conditions are impacting sales volumes more than pricing. Prices for homes remain surprisingly resilient. Pricing trajectories in the condo market are more variable. Sellers of Minatoya List condos have had to discount substantially to attract buyers. That said, the amount of price adjusting varies by condo development. Entry-level condos geared towards local buyers are seeing modest price adjustments. While selected luxury condos continue to push slowly upward in value.
Projecting the market’s direction seems like a fool’s errand. The resolution of the Minatoya List legislation remains the most significant local variable. However, many other factors originating in places far from Maui could impact the real estate market in the coming year. Inflation, the overall strength of the economy, potential changes in the tax code, insurance challenges, and a significant political shift in D.C. are just some of the things that could impact the national and local real estate market in 2025.
Rest assured, we will continue to provide updates throughout the year. Contact us if you are wondering about market conditions in specific communities, neighborhoods, or price ranges. We would welcome the chance to learn more about your needs and answer questions.
A Little Maui Beauty to Brighten This Post
