Paia Real Estate 2012 Market Report and 2013 Outlook

A comparison between the real estate sales volumes for 2011 and 2012 in Paia, Maui, Hawaii
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In the third installment of our community market reports, I wanted to take a look at how the Paia market performed in 2012. By comparing last year’s sales to the current inventory, we also hope to provide some thoughts on the outlook for the 2013 Paia Real Estate Market. Paia is a North Shore community known for its access to water sports and bohemian vibe. Kama’aina and second home owners also love the great restaurants and shops. The town is gaining in national recognition with everything from New York Times articles on art galleries to Coastal Living’s recent selection of Paia as one of the ten happiest seaside towns in America. When talking about the Paia Real Estate market, we are including Paia and the associated communities of Spreckelsville and Kuau. We did a market report on Spreckelsville already, but we are also including the Spreckelsville data in this Paia report. During 2012, we saw modest improvements in the Paia market with a few more closes over what we saw in 2011. One might argue that we may have seen more closes if there was more quality inventory available. The lack of inventory in Paia clearly represents a challenge for the 2013 as well.

A comparison between the real estate sales volumes for 2011 and 2012 in Paia, Maui, Hawaii

There were 29 homes sold in Paia during 2012 at a median price of $580,000. By comparison the 2011 sales totals were 26 home sales with a median price of $597,000. That means that there was a 12% increase in sales volume and a 3% decrease in median prices.

There was one condo sold at Kuau Plaza in 2012. That was a two bedroom unit that closed for $260,000. There were no condo sales in Paia during 2011. It was an off market sale (the condo was not listed on the MLS, however a Realtor assisted) and the unit was a 3rd floor unit with some upgrades.

There were two vacant lots sold in the Paia area during 2012. That is a slight uptick from 2011 when there was only one sale of vacant land. Overall there is a general scarcity of vacant land in Paia.

Here are a few other notes about the Paia market in 2012.

  • There were three bank owned homes that closed in Paia in 2012. That is down from the five that closed in 2011.
  • There were four short sale closes in 2012. That is equal to the 2011 numbers for Short Sale activity.
  • The high sale in the Paia area was $2,520,000 for a beachfront home in Spreckelsville. This was the only oceanfront sale in the Paia area in 2012.
  • There were six sales over $1,500,000 in the Paia area this year. One was in Kuau and the rest were in Spreckelsville.

There were signs of a recuperating Paia Real Estate market in 2012. The uptick in sales volume was modest, but this is also a relatively small market. As I mentioned in the first paragraph of this post, I would argue that a lack of inventory curtailed the growth of the market more than anything else. While I have no quantitative evidence to support this assertion, here are the two main reasons why I think the market could have absorbed additional inventory. 1. Well priced properties in Paia were generating bidding wars. 2. Buyers were digging hard to find unlisted opportunities. There were six sales of unlisted properties during the second half of 2012.

While there was some healthy activity over $1,000,000, the ultra luxury market was comparatively quiet. There were eight properties listed over $2,500,000 with only one that went under contract. That is in line with the overall market trends on island which saw a down year for luxury home and condo sales.

What does 2013 hold in store for the Paia Real Estate Market? Inventory is going to play a big part in the current market. If you look at the chart below, I compared the current inventory of active homes for sale in Paia vs. the 2012 sales. The chart does not include pending sales.

A Comparison of the February 2013 Paia Active Real Estate Inventory by Price Point compared to the 2012 Sales by Price Point

There is a relative shortage of properties in almost all price ranges under $1,000,000. There are very few entry level homes on the market and there is even less in the middle. There are no active Kuau Bayview listings, but there are two listings and one unlisted property currently under contract in that neighborhood. One of the listings under contract was priced well above recent comparable sales. Any new inventory in Kuau Bayview or North Shore Village would be well received in the market place. The relative scarcity of properties at the low end and the middle is likely to generate some upward price pressure in Paia. The one million to two million price range has a decent balance of inventory. There appears to be enough supply to meet the typical demand of buyers in this price segment. That being said, this was a segment of the market that had strong activity in the second half of 2012 with many buyers seeking out unlisted properties. The biggest selection of properties for buyers is above $2,500,000. While this was a quiet segment for activity in 2012, there are signs of life in this part of the market already this year. There are currently two properties priced over $5,000,000 in Paia that have gone under contract (pending sales) for the first of the year. While it will be hard for the market to come close to sustaining that pace, it sets the stage for a stronger 2013 in the Paia Luxury market.

The condo and land markets will always be relatively quiet due to limited inventory. There is only one active land listing in Spreckelsville at this time. The Paia and the Kuau area just don’t have much left in terms of vacant land. For Paia condo buyers, there are a couple of listings at Kuau Plaza currently. I would suspect those may get more interest with the lack of low end housing inventory and overall interest in Paia. The only other condo complex in the Paia area is Sugar Cove. This luxury beachfront complex tends to have limited inventory due to low turnover.

If you are interested in this great North Shore community, you can check out the current inventory of Paia Real Estate Listings. We also have a page specifically for Spreckelsville Real Estate Listings. We would also welcome the opportunity to discuss your needs and the community directly. Our office is located in Paia and three of our agents call the area home. We know it well and are happy to answer questions about the community. Contact The Maui Real Estate Team to schedule an appointment.

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