Tag: Hoku'ula
We are starting off 2023 with volume 22 of our market musings. Early January means that we are in the beginning of what is traditionally our peak real estate season on Maui. This post helps to give a sense of recent market demand and current inventory levels as we enter into what should be the busiest 3-4 months of the year for real estate transactions on island.
December Market Activity
We start things off by taking a look back at December. How many new listings came to market, went under contract and sold? Activity from the five previous Decembers are given for additional context.
| 12/22 | 12/21 | 12/20 | 12/19 | 12/18 | 12/17 | |
| Homes | 89 | 98 | 115 | 121 | 120 | 140 |
| Condos | 76 | 162 | 152 | 143 | 173 | 173 |
New inventory during the month of December was below normal. The number of new listings is anywhere between 25% and 36% lower than what we would anticipate in the pre-Covid Decembers of 2017-2019. This December’s home inventory benefited from an influx of new listings in the Hoku’ula subdivision in Upcountry Maui towards the end of the month. Were it not for those 19 listings, new inventory would be even further below what’s considered normal.
New condo inventory was significantly lower than usual in December. It is anywhere between 47% and 56% below the December new inventory of 2017-2019. Whether it’s the golden handcuffs of low interest rates, the lack of potential replacement properties or just loving their place on Maui, people are holding on to their condos for now.
| 12/22 | 12/21 | 12/20 | 12/19 | 12/18 | 12/17 | |
| Homes | 51 | 69 | 117 | 74 | 75 | 75 |
| Condos | 53 | 136 | 139 | 113 | 110 | 108 |
While new inventory was low, buyer demand also remained low in December. The number of new pending home sales came in at anywhere between 32-33% below what we saw in the three years prior to the start of Covid.
New Pending condo sales came in between 45% and 52% below the activity seen over the years prior to Covid. The slow down in new condo inventory and sales activity is particularly pronounced over the last few months.
| 12/22 | 12/21 | 12/20 | 12/19 | 12/18 | 12/17 | |
| Homes | 64 | 113 | 106 | 96 | 91 | 89 |
| Condos | 67 | 171 | 170 | 125 | 122 | 140 |
The closed transactions in December give us some insight to market demand a little earlier in the fall. Most of these closes came out of contracts agreed to in October and November. Home sales were between 28 and 33% lower than a typical Pre-Covid December. Condo sales in December are between 45 and 53% lower than the three Decembers prior to the start of Covid. Of course, this December’s home and condo sales are way below 2020 and 2021 sales volume.
End of December Maui Inventory
Inventory, or lack thereof, continues to be a significant factor in our market. While new inventory remains low, quieter buyer activity over the last 2-3 months allowed for modest growth in the overall number of properties for sale. That said, we still have a lot less inventory that what was more typical pre-Covid. The charts below provide detail on active and pending listings by price point and community.
End of December Home Inventory
| 10/31/2022 | 11/30/2022 | 12/31/2022 | ||||
| Active | Pending | Active | Pending | Active | Pending | |
| <$750,000 | 9 | 15 | 5 | 14 | 6 (+1) | 10 (-4) |
| $750,000-$999,999 | 29 | 29 | 31 | 25 | 25 (-6) | 28 (+3) |
| $1,000,000-$1,499,999 | 64 | 28 | 61 | 28 | 78 (+17) | 20 (-8) |
| $1,500,000-$1,999,999 | 41 | 13 | 28 | 17 | 36 (+8) | 11 (-6) |
| $2,000,000-$2,999,999 | 35 | 10 | 34 | 11 | 37 (+3) | 12 (-1) |
| $3,000,000-$4,999,999 | 32 | 7 | 32 | 7 | 31 (-1) | 9 (+2) |
| $5,000,000-$9,999,999 | 26 | 5 | 23 | 9 | 27 (+4) | 8 (-1) |
| $10,000,000-$19,999,999 | 9 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 14 | 0 |
| $20,000,000+ | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 4 (-1) | 2 (+1) |
| Totals | 248 | 108 | 233 | 112 | 258 (+25) | 100 (-12) |
| 10/31/2022 | 11/30/2022 | 12/31/2022 | ||||
| Active | Pending | Active | Pending | Active | Pending | |
| Haiku | 28 | 9 | 29 | 10 | 29 | 7 (-3) |
| Hana | 10 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 10 | 1 (+1) |
| Ka’anapali | 7 | 2 | 9 | 2 | 9 | 3 (+1) |
| Kahului | 16 | 16 | 16 | 13 | 16 | 13 |
| Kapalua | 6 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 3 |
| Kihei | 40 | 11 | 31 | 15 | 39 (+8) | 7 (-8) |
| Kula | 20 | 11 | 22 | 12 | 21 (-1) | 10 (-2) |
| Lahaina | 22 | 13 | 15 | 13 | 18 (+3) | 11 (-2) |
| Makawao | 13 | 9 | 11 | 7 | 35 (+24) | 4 (-3) |
| Napili/Kahana/Honokowai | 11 | 6 | 9 | 3 | 13 (+2) | 3 (-3) |
| Pukalani | 8 | 3 | 10 | 3 | 7 (-3) | 3 |
| Sprecks/Paia | 8 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 9 (+2) | 1 (-2) |
| Wailea | 11 | 4 | 16 | 4 | 13 (-3) | 6 (+2) |
| Wailuku | 40 | 21 | 32 | 19 | 25 (-7) | 25 (+6) |
Notable Numbers from the End of December Home Inventory
The information above is provided with the usual framework. The home inventory data by price point includes all of the island of Maui, but excludes the islands of Molokai and Lanai. The district information is limited to the districts and communities with the most activity.
- For the second month in a row, the inventory of active home listings increased on Maui. Active inventory increased 10.7%. A good portion of the bump in inventory can be traced to the 19 new developer listings in the Hoku’ula subdivision.
- Changes in active inventory varied by price point. Five price points increased in inventory, three decreased and one was unchanged. The price range with the biggest increase in inventory was between $1,000,000 and $2,000,000. Again, that was largely due to Hoku’ula. It was notable that the $750,000-$999,999 price range saw the biggest drop in active listings from the month prior. Inventory in that segment increased steadily in the the previous three months. With a higher percentage of financed buyers in this price point, the spike in interest rates earlier in the fall curtailed buyer demand.
- Overall Pending home inventory decreased from the end of November. The number of pending homes dipped 10.71% between November 30th and December 31st.
- By price point, pending sales increased in three price ranges, decreased in five and remained unchanged in three price points. The biggest increase in pending sales occurred in the $750,000-$999,999 range. Perhaps recent decreases in interest rates provided some relief to buyers in that price range. The biggest decrease in pending sales occurred in the $1,000,000-$2,000,000 price range.
- At a community level, inventory trends continued to vary. Inventory increased in 5 communities, decreased in 4 and remained unchanged in 5 districts. The biggest increase by far was in Makawao (the Hoku’ula effect) followed by Kihei. Wailuku inventory decreased the most.
- Pending sales decreased in most communities. Kihei pending sales decreased the most month to month. Wailuku experienced the biggest increase in pending sales.
End of December Maui Condo Inventory
| 10/31/2022 | 11/30/2022 | 12/31/2022 | ||||
| Active | Pending | Active | Pending | Active | Pending | |
| <$250,000 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 2 (+1) | 2 (-2) |
| $250,000-$499,999 | 19 | 12 | 19 | 14 | 12 (-7) | 16 (+2) |
| $500,000-$749,999 | 32 | 35 | 43 | 33 | 38 (-5) | 25 (-8) |
| $750,000-$999,999 | 27 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 42 (+14) | 27 (-2) |
| $1,000,000-$1,499,999 | 21 | 30 | 31 | 24 | 32 (+1) | 21 (-1) |
| $1,500,000-$1,999,999 | 14 | 33 | 21 | 28 | 26 (+5) | 29 (+1) |
| $2,000,000-$2,999,999 | 15 | 40 | 18 | 39 | 18 | 36 (-3) |
| $3,000,000-$4,999,999 | 10 | 17 | 11 | 17 | 10 (-1) | 18 (+1) |
| $5,000,000-$9,999,999 | 11 | 1 | 12 | 2 | 14 (+2) | 0 (-2) |
| $10,000,000+ | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 (+1) | 0 |
| Total | 154 | 200 | 187 | 190 | 198 (+11) | 174 (-16) |
| 10/31/2022 | 11/30/2022 | 12/31/2022 | ||||
| Active | Pending | Active | Pending | Active | Pending | |
| Ka’anapali | 18 | 9 | 25 | 4 | 22 (-3) | 9 (+5) |
| Kahului | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 (-1) | 3 (-2) |
| Kapalua | 12 | 4 | 14 | 2 | 12 (-2) | 3 (+1) |
| Kihei | 43 | 60 | 53 | 61 | 61 (+8) | 45 (-16) |
| Lahaina | 8 | 4 | 14 | 8 | 11 (-3) | 12 (+4) |
| Ma’alaea | 3 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 5 (+1) | 5 (-3) |
| Napili/Kahana/Honokowai | 33 | 17 | 39 | 19 | 50 (+11) | 16 (-3) |
| Wailea/Makena | 19 | 85 | 23 | 85 | 27 (+4) | 79 (-6) |
| Wailuku | 11 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 4 (-4) | 4 (-4) |
Notable Numbers from the End of December Condo Inventory
Again, the tables above come with the usual framework for our end of month inventory. The table by price point includes all condos on Maui, but it does not include condos on the islands of Molokai or Lanai. The table with districts is limited to the communities with the most activity.
Pending sales at La’i Loa at Wailea Hills skew the data in Wailea and the $1,500,000-$5,000,000 price ranges. There are 75 pending sales in that development based on contracts penned in 2020 and the first quarter of 2021. Pending sales in La’i Loa won’t start to close until sometime in the fall of 2023. Paradise Ridge Estates in Kihei also skews the data albeit to a lesser extent. There are 18 pending sales with that development based on contracts penned between 2018 and the first quarter of 2022. Overall, 53.44% of the current pending condo inventory is in La’i Loa or Paradise Ridge Estates.
- For the third straight month, end of month inventory of active condo listings grew. It increased 5.88% from the end of November.
- Looking at the inventory by price point, there continues to be a lot of variability. While most price points saw modest changes, the inventory of $250,000-$749,999 condos decreased by a decent margin. The inventory of condos priced between $750,000 and $999,999 increased substantially. There was also a bump in inventory between $1,500,000 and $1,999,999.
- End of the month pending condo sales dropped for the third straight time. Pending sales dropped 8.43%.
- Most price ranges saw a decrease in pending sales by the end of the month. The $500,000-$749,999 price range saw the biggest drop in activity followed by the $2,000,000-$2,999,999 price point.
- At a community level, most locations saw modest changes in inventory. There were exceptions. Kihei and the Napili, Kahana and Honokowai MLS district saw pretty big increases. Ka’anapali and Wailuku both saw notable decreases in inventory.
- Most communities saw a decrease in pending sales by the end of December. Kihei saw the biggest decrease in pending sales. While Wailea’s decrease was smaller, it is notable that the vast majority of the remaining pending sales are longer term contracts at La’i Loa. Only 4 of the 79 pendings in Wailea at the end of the month were condos outside of that development.
- The West Maui communities of Ka’anapali and Lahaina were both notable for their increase in pending condo sales.
How Quickly Are Things Going Under Contract
We started tracking the percentage of properties going under contract in ten days or less all the way back in February. At the time, the market was in a frenzy and 56% of all new listings went under contract within that first ten days of coming to market. We’ve seen things slow considerably since that time. I took a look at properties that came to market between December 13th and December 20th. Of the 35 listings that came to market, 25.71% went under contract within the first ten days. That is actually up from when we last checked in November when only 15.9% of all properties went under contract.
Looking specifically at homes, 20% of the homes listed between December 13 and 20th went under contract within 10 days or less. Last year during the same period, 15.38% of new home listings went under contract in 10 days or less. In 2019, 20% of homes went under contract in 10 days or less.
Of the condos that came to market between December 13th and 20th, 30% went under contract within 10 days. For perspective, 41.51% of all condos listed between December 13-20th, 2021 went under contract in ten days or less. In 2019, 15.22% of condos listed during that same time period went under contract in 10 days or less.
My biggest takeaway from these numbers is that we are well off the frenzy of 2021 and the first quarter of 2022. Response to new listings is closer to what we had pre-Covid. Back then, quality properties priced well tended to go quickly. That continues to be the case today. Unless there is a lot of push back from the readership or we see a clear shift in market conditions, I am going to retire this metric from future musings posts.
Price Reductions
While market activity remained slow in December, it doesn’t seem to be fazing too many sellers. As of December 31st, only 33.33% of all active listings had one or more price reduction. That is down from 37.02% on November 30th and 39.92 on October 31st. It was all the way up at 42.21% in late September.
The condo market is seeing even fewer price reductions. As of New Year’s eve, only 25.25% of all active condo listings were reduced in price one or more times. That is down slightly from 25.53% on November 30th and 29.41% on October 31st.
I surmise that low inventory and seller hopes for a seasonal increase in buyers has led more seller to stick their guns on pricing.
Quick Thoughts On the Market as We Enter Maui Peak Buying Season
Needless to say, the trajectory of the market isn’t entirely clear at the start of buyer’s season. Inventory is up from last winter, but still well below normal. Demand is lower, but it should potentially increase just due to seasonality. Affordability is down significantly from this time last year, but there is still a lot of cash in our market and rates are better than they were earlier in the fall. Add it all together and it makes prognostication a challenge. About the only thing I feel comfortable predicting is continued variability in conditions by price range and by location around the island. We will continue to provide market observations as buyer season progresses on the blog.
A Little Maui Beauty
Contact The Maui Real Estate Team
With the uncertainty in the Maui Real Estate market, quality representation is more important now then ever. Contact the Maui Real Estate Team. Our experienced agents welcome the chance to discuss your real estate needs. We look forward to being of assistance.
We made it to Volume 10! Our efforts to keep you abreast of the Maui Real Estate Market in these dynamic times continue. As usual, this is something of a grab bag hitting on a variety of topics. We look at some of the recent data points and outlooks for the National Real Estate market. This post also looks at some of the latest numbers regarding inventory, price reductions and the speed at which properties go pending on Maui. Finally, we provide some thoughts for sellers as the subtle shift in market dynamics continues.
A Smattering of National Real Estate Perspectives
We tend to be data geeks at the Maui Real Estate Team. That means we consume a steady diet of information on the local and national real estate market. With change in the air in the real estate market, the tweets, articles and opinions are coming fast and furious. This is a curation of some of the recent articles and tweets we read we thought were worth sharing.
- Redfin came out with their latest look at the second home market a little over ten days ago. It’s worth reading past the headline. Demand for second homes in April is down substantially from its peak during the second half of 2020 and 2021. That said, it is still 9.8% above pre-Covid levels. When looking at articles talking about changes in the market, it is particularly helpful when Pre-Covid numbers are provided for context.
- This is an interesting tweet on a paper highlighting the role of remote work in the role of price increases. This clearly impacted the local market as higher income buyers working remotely entered the Maui market.
- New construction home sales are feeling the impact of rising interest rates across the country. Although John Burns points out in his tweet below that they are still above pre-pandemic levels. Locally, Maui has relatively limited new development occurring at this time. Hoku’ula in Hali’imaile is doing site work and taking reservations on market based housing. Anuhea at Kehalani is partially completed. Some phases are actively in construction with the next phase likely to come to market in late summer or fall. La’i Loa in Wailea is fully reserved with construction ongoing.
- Inventory is increasing nationally. The 8% increase this week is substantial, but not unprecedented. Mike Simonsen’s whole thread is worth a read if you are on Twitter.
- As dynamics in the market shift, the tendency is to look at past markets to find analogues to the current market. Bill McBride from the Calculated Risk Blog argues that we shouldn’t be looking at the last real estate bust for comparisons. He makes a pretty compelling case that the late 70s and early 80s is a more relevant comparison to the current market. Baby Boomer demand then is similar to Millennial demand now. The Federal Reserve found itself in a similar position due to inflationary pressure. While mortgage rates now are still well below rates from that point in time, the year over year change in rates is similar. Will we see similar pricing dynamics?
- I wanted to include this last tweet from one of my favorite real estate follows on twitter to wrap this section up. It points to one of the values of keeping an eye on statistics. I’ve noted quite a few headlines that create a different impression of the market than what they underlying statistics show. Keeping a closer eye on and understanding the stats helps to strip out some of the hyperbole.
Recent Data Points From the Maui Market
The Maui market is influenced by trends in the national market, but it doesn’t necessarily follow in lockstep with national dynamics. The high volume of second home sales and being a literal island can create different market dynamics. Here are some of the latest numbers on local inventory, price reductions and pending sales.
Overall Inventory
As of May 24th, there are 198 active home listings on the Maui MLS. At the end of April, there were 176. That is a modest 12.5% increase in active home listings for the month to date. For a little perspective, it is worth taking a look at pre-Covid numbers. In the end of May in 2019, there were 445 active listings. We are still less than half of pre-Covid inventory.
Condo inventory remains particularly limited. As of the 24th, there are 160 active condo listings in Maui County. There were 158 at the end of April. Inventory gains for the month to date remain negligible. For further context, there were 487 active listings at the end of April 2019. We are at less than a 1/3 of 2019 inventory.
Clearly, we aren’t seeing the same type of inventory increase that the mainland market is seeing. That said, Maui traditionally doesn’t see the big inventory bump that the National market sees in the late spring. Inventory decreased from the end of April to the end of May in 2017, 2018 and 2019. This modest bump in inventory for homes and condos for the month to date goes against pre-Covid trends. The Maui market’s seasonality may be masking a shift on inventory.
Pending Sales on New Listings
We’ve looked at the percentage of homes going under contract within the first ten days of going to market in Musings II, Musings XIII and Musings IX. In mid February, 56% of new listings went under contract in 10 days or less. In early April, that number decreased to 46%. By mid-late April, the number was down to 43%. Of the 76 listings that came to market between May 7th and May 14th, 27 went under contract within 10 days. That calculates to 35.5%. To give a pre-covid reference point, 21.7% of new listings went under contract in 10 days or less for properties listed between May 7th-May 14th 2019.
Price Reductions
In our last edition of the musings, I started tracking price reductions on Maui. I looked at the percentage of active home and condo listings that reduced the price below their original asking price. On May 24th, 33% of active home listings reduced their price one or more times. That is actually down from May 5th when 37% of active home listings reduced their price one or more time. On May 24th, 18.2% of all active condo listings reduced their price one or more times. That is up from May 5th when 15% reduced their price one or more times.
Thoughts for Sellers
The good news is that by all metrics this is still a seller’s market. Inventory remains well below normal and there is still demand. That said, the dynamics now are not the same that they were six months ago or even three months ago. The “list the property, set a weekend open house schedule and offers due by Monday routine” is not quite the norm that it used to be. Here are some thoughts for prospective sellers entering the market.
Pricing
It’s been a forgiving market when it came to pricing a property over the last 14 plus months. In some cases, buyers set the pricing. Seemingly well priced properties would be inundated with offers and prices would soar well over asking. In other cases, sellers priced their property at levels that seemed really high based on recent comparable sales. They would still get their number. Sometimes, that would happen quickly and others it would just be a matter of the market catching up. That said, the margin for error on pricing appears to be shrinking. As market conditions become more variable, some of the more aggressive sellers are not getting the market feedback that they hoped for.
Sellers should work closely with their Realtor to look at both recent comparable sales and the level of activity in their segment of the market. There is a lot of heterogeneity in the market so pricing a home can be a challenge. If the market is not responding to your price, you may need to adjust pricing a little more quickly.
Negotiation
Price wasn’t the only area where sellers had a lot of leverage in this more recent market cycle. Sellers rebuffed requests for repairs, tightened timelines and sometimes negotiated post-closing occupancy without buyers batting an eye lash. A high number of back up offers only strengthened sellers hands. Buyers with FOMO (fear of missing out) conceded to seller demands far more often than not.
Anecdotally, I have heard stories of sellers overplaying their hand during negotiations in the current market. While sellers still have some leverage, more buyers are willing to walk away. Concessions, repairs and other negotiations are likely to become more commonplace if the market continues to adjust.
Days on Market
As the numbers above indicate, the number of homes going under contract right after listing is steadily decreasing. We are also seeing more price adjustments compared to earlier in the spring. That of course means that days on market is increasing. It may take a little longer to sell in this market. If your circumstances dictate that you need to sell sooner than later, adjusting to market feedback is important.
A Little Maui Beauty
Contact The Maui Real Estate Team
Contact The Maui Real Estate Team with questions, feedback or if you need assistance buying or selling property on Maui. We look forward to hearing from you.
This week’s edition of Maui Market Musings is another grab bag of topics. I look at days on market on Maui, try to get a sense of price increases since the start of Covid and check in on sales activity at Hoku’ula, the new development in Upcountry Maui.
Properties Continue to Move Quickly
One way of gauging the strength of the Maui market is looking at days on market. The local Realtor Association publishes days on market for sold properties. I wanted to use data from recently listed properties for a more current look at market activity. Between February 9th and February 16th, 71 listings came to market. Of the 71 listings, 40 already went under contract. Of the remaining 31 listings, 7 are waiting to review offers until a later date or are in the process of reviewing offers. One bank owned listing successfully completed an auction with the buyer and the bank completing contract paper work. Two additional listings are vacation rentals with no opportunity for showings as of yet.
We are seeing things go under contract really quickly. What does this mean for buyers? Over 50% of properties are going under contract in 10 days or less. Many sellers are setting offer deadlines a week after listing to allow for strong showing demand. Multiple offers are common. Buyers who want to enter the fray need to have pre-approvals and proof of funds in hand. They also need to prepare to write very strong offers.
How Much Have Property Values Increased on Maui?
How much have prices gone up since the start of Covid? This is one of the most common questions people ask about the Maui market. This is a surprisingly difficult question to answer. The Maui market is incredibly heterogeneous. While changes in median price give some indication of changes in value, it isn’t an exact indicator. Changes in median prices aren’t just due to changes in price. Differences in the composition of the market in any one month also contribute to changes in median. For example, if you have a greater proportion of higher end homes selling in any one month, median prices will tend to go up.
With that in mind, I thought I would do my best to try to get a better sense of how much prices changed since early 2020. To do that, I went through the sales over the last month and compared them to sales during the same period of January and February 2020. I tried to find as many like for like properties to compare from each of the two time frames. Truth be told, the list of properties that fit that criteria is surprisingly small. Here are some of the properties I identified, notable differences if any, their sales prices and the percentage change.
Comparing Early 2020 and Early 2022 Home Prices
- The first example I found was actually a home that sold on January 31st of 2020 and sold again on February 9th of 2022. 24 W Makaukau Loop is located in the Waikapu Gardens subdivision of Wailuku. The seller made one notable improvement during their two years of ownership. They added a photovoltaic system with a Tesla Powerwall. It closed for $731,000 in 2020 and $990,000 in 2022. That is a 34% difference. If you add roughly $35,000 for the improvements, you are looking at a 29.4% increase in value.
- I found two very similar homes in the Pi’ilani Villages subdivision in Kihei that sold in 2020 and 2022 respectively. 38 Polale and 62 Polale are both three bedroom, two bathroom homes with 1,478 square feet of living space. Both homes have net metered photovoltaic systems. and new flooring. The home at 38 Polale has original bathrooms, while the home at 62 Polale includes nicely remodeled bathrooms. The lot at 38 Polale is 300 square feet bigger. The home at 38 Polale sold in early 2020 for $756,000. The home at 62 Polale sold in early 2022 for $1,100,000. That is a 45.5% difference in value. Regardless of the bathroom improvements, this is a big shift in values.
- While the next two homes don’t offer a true apples to apples comparison, they are still worth sharing. Both homes are in Kaimana at Kehalani. This is a subdivision with a single developer and a handful of different floor plans. The first home is a 4 bedroom, 3 bath with 2,021 square feet of living space and a Photovoltaic system. The home is located on a 4,500 square foot lot. The second home is 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms with 1,185 square feet of living space. It is also situated on 4,500 square foot lot. The 4 bedroom home sold in early 2020 for $725,000. The second sold for $815,000. That is a 12% higher sales price for a home that is 41% smaller.
Comparing Early 2020 and Early 2022 Condo Prices
- The first two condos I wanted to compare are located in the same floor of the same building at Aina Nalu in Lahaina. They are both 2 bedroom, 2 bath unit with 832 square feet of living space. Unit C 203 sold in early 2020 for $599,000. The seller did add some new flooring and there was some sort of bamboo ceiling covering added in parts of the condo. Unit C 209 was almost identical minus the improvements. It sold in early 2022 for $766,000. That is a 27.8% price increase. It is worth noting that Aina Nalu was one of a small handful of condos that actually saw prices go down in mid 2020. During that time, second floor two bedrooms went as low as $500,000. The level of appreciation is that much higher if you factor in that price adjustment.
- Kai Malu is an upscale non-vacation rental condo in Wailea. There is variability in value within the complex based on location and view. I found two condos with the same 3 bedroom, 2.5 bathroom floor plan in different parts of the development. Both are considered to be good locations. They both overlook the golf course with the ocean in the distance. Unit 5A sold in late January 2020 for $1,700,000. Unit 55B is a little more upgraded unit with some more recent renovations. It sold for $2,200,000 in early February. That is a 29.4% increase in sales price.
- Kihei Villages is an entry level condo complex that prohibits short terms rentals. I found two pretty similar ground floor units for comparison. Both have two bedrooms, one and a half baths and 750 square feet of living space and an enclosed yard area. Unit 10-103 had some improvements in the kitchen, but bathrooms appeared to be original. It sold in February of 2020 for $365,000. Unit 34-103 was well maintained with a nice yard, but no upgrades to the kitchens or bathrooms. It sold for $535,000 in February of 2022. That is a 46.5% difference in value.
- I compared two one bedroom, one bath listings in building 2 at Maui Vista. This is a vacation rental friendly condo in Kihei. Both units appeared to be in original condition. Unit 2203 sold for $420,000 in February of 2020. Unit 2308 sold for $572,000 in January. That is a difference of 36.19%.
While this is a relatively small sample size, it does provide both homes and condos over a pretty broad area of the island. Overall, here are my takeaways from this number crunching exercise. You are looking a bare minimum of 27% appreciation over the last two years with some properties seeing more significant increases. There is some variability in appreciation around the island. While all these prices are moving in the same direction at this point,some are taking a little longer to get there.
The significant price increases appear to be continuing. Anecdotally, bidding wars feel that much more competitive of late. In turn, it feels as if values skipped up on some of the properties going under contract over the last few weeks. It will be interesting to see if the sales numbers corroborate this in the months ahead.
Hoku’ula Lottery Update
Last week I posted about the lottery for first phase of the market priced listings at Hoku’ula. This development in Hali’imaile is one of the largest developments ever in Upcountry Maui. It will include 196 total homes with 98 work force housing homes and 98 market rate housing homes. The work force housing units are fully reserved. The developer held a lottery for the first phase of the market rate housing at the end of last week. Per the developer’s representatives, 15 homes went under contract as a result of the lottery. That is half of the 30 homes in the first phase. Registrations for the first phase may still be submitted. Contact The Maui Real Estate Team for buyer representation if you are interested in the development.
Final Thoughts
Well, so far so good on making this a regular feature of our blog. We are hoping that this is valuable tool for buyers and sellers trying to get a better sense of the market. Feel free to reach out if there are any specific things you might want us to discuss in future volumes of the musings. Contact The Maui Real Estate Team if you need assistance buying and selling property.
Hoku’ula, the newest subdivision in Upcountry Maui, will be conducting its first lottery for market priced housing this month. Registrations for the first phase lottery are due by 5:00 PM on Thursday, February 17th. The developer conducts the actual lottery the following day on the 18th. That means late registrations will not be considered. Those interested in the lottery need to fill out a registration form for the development, and provide a pre-qualification letter from a lender or proof of cash funds for cash purchases. Contact The Maui Real Estate Team for buyer representation and assistance with submitting the lottery registration form.
Here are a few more things to note about the first phase lottery:
- The price of homes in the first phase range between $1,285,000 and $1,650,000.
- The lottery itself is not a public event.
- A list will be created based on the order in which lottery numbers are drawn.
- Those that remain on the list will not need to apply for future lotteries.
- Lottery positions may not be transferred to another buyer.
- At this time, I have yet to see any concrete numbers for the number of houses being released in the first phase.
If a lottery participant’s number comes up high enough to be part of the first phase, the developer sales team will be contacting buyers and their representatives for contract signing and lot selection on Saturday the 19th. The buyer will need to make a $10,000 initial deposit due upon contract signing. The buyer has a 30 day contingency/review period from the contract signing. At the end of the 30 day period, the buyer owes a second deposit of 15% of the purchase, minus their $10,000 initial deposit.
Check out our Hoku’ula Subdivision page for more information on the development and a handful of listings representative of what is available in the development. Contact The Maui Real Estate Team for buyer representation for the Hoku’ula lottery. We are happy to assist in helping you with registration forms. If you haven’t been pre-qualified to date, we will also be happy to help you find a lender.