Maui Real Estate Blog
Maui Market Musings Volume XX
Well, we made it to our twentieth Market Musings. This post took me a while to put together. I want to say it’s because it is chock full of tremendous insight. The truth is my last 9-10 days consisted primarily of battling Covid. My symptoms made writing this post a protracted slog. Give me some grace if there are typos and/or a few not so coherent thoughts interspersed throughout the text.
In our last post, I talked about the relative resilience of the Maui market under higher rates. Since that time, rates rose even more. The additional bump in rates or perhaps just a longer duration of time with higher rates is weighing on the Maui market. The single family home market in particular is feeling the burden of higher rates and decreased affordability. Musings 20 takes a look at some of the current market indicators including active and pending inventory, price reductions and how quickly new listings are going under contract.
End of October Maui Single Family Home Inventory
|<$750,000||11||11||7||14||9 (+1)||15 (+1)|
|$750,000-$999,999||31||44||21||46||29 (+8)||29 (-15)|
|$1,000,000-$1,499,999||58||28||45||33||64 (+19)||28 (-5)|
|$1,500,000-$1,999,999||46||13||44||17||41 (-3)||13 (-4)|
|$2,000,000-$2,999,999||36||12||33||12||35 (+2)||10 (-2)|
|$3,000,000-$4,999,999||32||11||35||11||32 (-3)||7 (-4)|
|$5,000,000-$9,999,999||26||5||27||6||26 (-1)||5 (-1)|
|Totals||256||124||225||140||248 (+23)||108 (-32)|
|Hana||8||2||9||1||10 (+1)||0 (-1)|
|Ka’anapali||10||4||10||3||7 (-3)||2 (-1)|
|Kahului||11||25||7||26||16 (+9)||16 (-10)|
|Kihei||44||16||35||16||40 (+5)||11 (-5)|
|Lahaina||23||7||21||10||22 (+1)||13 (+3)|
|Napili/Kahana/Hono…||14||4||9||7||11 (+2)||6 (-1)|
|Pukalani||8||5||6||7||8 (+2)||3 (-4)|
|Spreckelsville/Paia||15||3||10||4||8 (-2)||2 (-2)|
|Wailea/Makena||16||4||10||8||11 (+1)||4 (-4)|
|Wailuku||41||22||36||26||40 (+4)||21 (-5)|
End of October Home Inventory Review
The information above is provided with the usual framework. The home inventory data by price point includes all of the island of Maui, but excludes the islands of Molokai and Lanai. The district information is limited to the districts and community with the most activity.
- After a pretty healthy drop in Inventory in September, active home listings increased by 10.22% by the end of October.
- The bulk of the inventory increased occurred between $750,00 and $1,500,000 with an increase of 27 listings in that range.
- It appears that this increase in inventory stems more from slower activity than an influx of new listings. That is reflected in the pending sales data with 20 fewer pending home sales between $750,000 and $1,500,000.
- This make sense as this is an area of the market where a higher percentage of buyers are using financing. Looking at all of the sales between August 1 and October 30th, 18.93% of the buyers in this price range paid cash. In all other price ranges, 41.77% of buyers used cash. Plain and simple, the increase in mortgage rates is hitting this segment of the market harder.
- Overall, the number of pending home sales decreased 22.86% between the end of September and the end of October. That is a substantial decrease, but worth noting that pending sales typically decline in the fall.
- Looking at the market on a community level, all but three districts increased inventory. The exceptions being Kula, Spreckelsville/Paia and Ka’anapali. Ka’anapali’s decrease stemmed in part due to cancelled listings rather than increased sales.
- Kahului experienced the biggest increase in active listings and the biggest decrease in pending sales. With the vast majority of the inventory in this community priced between $750,000 and $1,300,000, this is a market where the increased rates appear to causing a bigger shift in conditions.
End of October Condo Inventory
|<$250,000||1||6||1||3||2 (+1)||4 (+1)|
|$250,000-$499,999||14||17||11||16||19 (+8)||12 (-4)|
|$500,000-$749,999||34||43||28||40||32 (+4)||35 (-5)|
|$750,000-$999,999||33||43||33||33||27 (-6)||27 (-6)|
|$1,000,000-$1,499,999||29||31||19||36||21 (+2)||30 (-6)|
|$1,500,000-$1,999,999||24||35||18||34||14 (-4)||33 (-1)|
|$2,000,000-$2,999,999||22||38||14||43||15 (+1)||40 (-3)|
|$5,000,000-$9,999,999||8||1||7||0||11 (+4)||1 (+1)|
|$10,000,000+||4||0||4||0||3 (-1)||1 (+1)|
|Total||181||233||145||222||154 (+9)||200 (-22)|
|Ka’anapali||25||16||17||14||18 (+1)||9 (-5)|
|Kahului||3||7||3||4||5 (+2)||5 (+1)|
|Kihei||50||63||48||61||43 (-5)||60 (-1)|
|Lahaina||9||10||5||7||8 (+3)||4 (-3)|
|Ma’alaea||3||6||4||4||3 (-1)||6 (+2)|
|Napili/Kahana/Hono…||45||25||29||30||33 (+4)||17 (-13)|
|Wailuku||9||14||8||12||11 (+3)||10 (-2)|
End of October Condo Inventory Review
Again, the tables above come with the usual framework for our end of month inventory. The table by price point includes all condos on Maui, but it does not include condos on the islands of Molokai or Lanai. The table with districts is limited to the communities with the most activity.
Pending sales at La’i Loa at Wailea Hills skew the data in Wailea and the $1,500,000-$5,000,000 price ranges. There are 75 pending sales in that development based on contracts penned in 2020 and the first quarter of 2021. Pending sales in La’i Loa won’t start to close until sometime in 2023. Paradise Ridge Estates in Kihei also skews the data albeit to a lesser extent. There are 18 pending sales with that development based on contracts penned between 2018 and the first quarter of 2022. Overall, 46.5% of the pending Condo inventory is in La’i Loa or Paradise Ridge Estates.
- After three straight months of decreased inventory, condo inventory increased by a modest 6.2%
- The largest increase in inventory occurred in the $250,000 to $499,999 price range. While this price range has a lower percentage of cash buyers than the overall condo market, the difference isn’t all that substantial.
- Active inventory increased in 6 out of 10 price ranges, decreased in three and stayed the same in one.
- Pending sales decreased 9.91% this month. As with home sales, it isn’t too uncommon to see pending sales decrease this time of year.
- The decrease in pending condo sales by price point was fairly consistent through most ranges, with the exceptions being the very lowest price range and the very highest price points in the market.
- At the community level, modest increases in inventory were common across the board. The two districts that actually saw a decrease in inventory at the community level were Ma’alaea and Kihei. Both are markets with a lot of vacation rentals. This is a market segment that is still seeing decent demand.
- Napili, Kahana and Honokowai experienced the biggest drop in pending sales. This is another big vacation rental condo market. Is the difference in activity levels a case of no clear narrative or just variability? This is something to watch with next month’s numbers.
How Quickly Are Properties Going Under Contract
One other metric we use on the blog to track market demand is how quickly properties are going under contract. Specifically, what percentage of new listings are going under contract in ten days or less. The very first time we started documenting this metric was back in February. At that point, 56% of all new listings went under contract within 10 days or less. Between September 12th and 19th, that number shrank to 34%. Between October 11th-18th, the number of properties that went under contract within 10 days or less fell further to 25.58%.
When you break it down by homes and condos, you can see that condos continue to show some measure of resilience. For condos listed between October 11th and 18th, 40% went under contract with buyers in ten days or less. That’s actually up from mid September when the number was 36.66%. For additional context, 66.67% of condos went under contract in 10 days or less between October 11th and 18th, 2021. Going back to 2019, 26% of all condos listed between October 11th and 18th went under contract in 10 days or less.
The numbers for the home market point to a more pronounced cooling. Only 13.04% of all homes listed between October 11th and 18th went under contract in 10 days or less. In mid-September, that number was 32.14%. For additional context, 54.17% of homes listed between October 11th and October 18th, 2021 went under contract in tend days or less. Going back to 2019, 9.09% of all homes listed between October 11th and October 18th, went under contract in ten days or less.
One market indicator that surprised this month is the number of active listings with price reductions. Nationally, price reductions continue to rise as the real estate market slows under the weight of higher interest rates. Based on the numbers above, one might expect to see more price reductions, particularly with the home market. With fewer properties going under contract quickly and fewer properties going under contract in general, shouldn’t sellers be adjusting to the market?
As of the the 31st, 90 of 248 active home listings or 39.92% reduced their price one or more times. On September 29th, 42.41% of homes went under contract in 10 days or less. On September 2nd, 42.97% of all active listings had one or more price reduction.
On the condo front, 45 of 153 or 29.41% of active condo listings on October 31, 2022 reduced their price one or more times. That’s up from 25% on September 29th. On September 2nd, 27.84% of all active condo listings had price reductions.
Some General Thoughts on the Numbers Above and The State of The Market
It’s been an interesting last six months in the Maui Real Estate market. The first quarter of the year was largely a continuation of 2021. Strong demand combined with limited inventory to fuel strong price growth. Demand slowly started to taper in the second quarter. That said, inventory remained low. While the frenzy of the first quarter subsided, there was a balance between limited supply and just enough demand to make for a competitive market for buyers. While we were well below the frenzy of earlier in the year, homes and condos in particular sold faster and at a higher percentage of asking price than they would in a normal market.
This trend of a balanced ratio between buyers and sellers continued through the summer. Inventory actually contracted through most of the summer, but we lost FOMO (fear of missing out) buyers from the market. The lack of FOMO buyers had an impact. We started to see some downward pressure on values in limited parts of the market. With a discerning buyer pool, flawed properties that would have sold easily in the first quarter weren’t getting any love from buyers.
In my last musings, I showed stats that pointed to the relative resilience of this market despite rates well over 6%. The stats above point to a further shift downward in the market . Or at least two out of three did. The third is a reflection of Maui as a real estate market as a whole.
The increase in inventory and the decrease in pendings show a market where the balance in supply and demand is starting to shift. This is less due to an influx of new inventory as much as it is to decreased demand. When you look at the number of homes going under contract within 10 days or less, you can see where the push above 7% rates is starting to decrease the number of buyers. I am sure the more negative national real estate news is also having an impact on the buying decisions of some. Fomo has been replaced by wait and see.
The decrease in price reductions is the one anomaly in this market. As the market cools, you would expect sellers to adjust. Prior to Covid, Maui’s market dynamics were different than the typical mainland market. Sellers took time to adjust prices and days on market could really pile up before a listing was considered stale. It’s also worth remembering that this shift is pretty recent. We may need to see these conditions persist for a longer before more sellers begin to adjust prices.
The one other thing to note is that while we saw a shift in market conditions in these most recent stats, conditions remain variable. That’s pretty clear when we look at the difference between homes and condos. As of mid-October, new condo listings still went under contract much faster than they did pre-Covid. Condo inventory remains tight compared to demand and the volume of cash buyers blunts the impact of higher rates.There is variability in the home market too. The luxury market, which again includes a higher percentage of cash buyers, appears to be moving relatively well.
Looking forward, it will be interesting to see where the market goes from here. Since it’s taken me longer to write this blog post, I have the advantage of watching market conditions over the first ten days of November. While I haven’t crunched the numbers in any detail, pending sales stabilized to start the month. Yesterday’s inflation print out caused a shift in the bond market and mortgage rates to drop a half a point.Will that persist or will higher rates return? Needless to say, it’s too early tell. If anything, this points to continued weird market dynamics with a lot of variability in conditions.
A Little Maui Beauty to Brighten Your Day
It may not be Monday but…
Contact The Maui Real Estate Team
Variable market conditions and general market weirdness demand quality representation. Contact the Maui Real Estate Team to talk to one of our experienced agents if you are thinking of buying or selling Maui Real Estate. One of our healthy agents will be happy to learn more about your real estate needs. We look forward to being of assistance.
Maui Real Estate Blog
Maui Market Musings Volume XIX
It’s been a few weeks since our last Maui Market Musings. With that in mind, this post delves into the numbers that help cast a light on current Maui market conditions. Since our last post, interests rates surged higher again putting additional pressure on affordability for some buyers. This post looks at what impacts if any higher rates are having on the Maui market. We also look at current inventory levels by price point and community. Other subjects for discussion include cancellations, price reductions and the recent market response to new listings. This is a longer read so you may want to grab your favorite caffeinated beverage before proceeding further. It is not advisable to operate heavy equipment after reading.
It’s hard not to lead with interest rates when discussing the state of the market. Rates continued their climb since our last update. While they fluctuate daily, they’ve been somewhere between 6.5% and just over 7% over the last few weeks. Needless, to say, we are a long way from the sub 3% interest rates we saw during periods of 2021. For those hoping that this increase is going to be short lived, the recent comments of Fed Chair Jerome Powell suggest that is unlikely to be the case. Powell said higher rates are needed to bring about a “correction” and balance to the housing market. While the Fed doesn’t directly control mortgage rates, they can exert a strong influence with changes to the Federal Funds rate.
Higher rates (even rates lower than current rates) were already impacting real estate markets around the country. Values are starting to retreat in many markets, particularly in some of the frothiest markets of the last couple of years.
So what kind of impact are we seeing on Maui from higher rates? There are a couple of numbers that we look at in this musings that might reflect the impact of higher rates. Pending sales is one with decreased affordability likely to impact the number of buyers. Price decreases is another metric that would or should reflect sellers adjusting to decreased buyer demand. Keep reading to see what those numbers look like recently on Maui.
Maui Home Inventory
|<$750,000||11||14||11||11||7 (-4)||14 (+3)|
|$750,000-$999,999||25||62||31||44||21 (-10)||46 (+2)|
|$1,000,000-$1,499,999||65||34||58||28||45 (-13)||33 (+5)|
|$1,500,000-$1,999,999||41||19||46||13||44 (-2)||17 (+4)|
|$5,000,000-$9,999,999||24||7||26||5||27 (+1)||6 (+1)|
|$20,000,000+||5||1||5||0||2 (-3)||1 (+1)|
|Totals||239||156||256||124||225 (-31)||140 (+16)|
|Hana||4||1||8||2||9 (+1)||1 (-1)|
|Kahului||13||21||11||25||7 (-4)||26 (+1)|
|Kula||19||16||24||10||22 (-2)||11 (+1)|
|Lahaina||18||14||23||7||21 (-2)||10 (+3)|
|Napili/Kahana/Hono…||10||6||14||4||9 (-5)||7 (+3)|
|Pukalani||7||6||8||5||6 (-2)||7 (+2)|
|Spreckelsville/Paia||10||2||15||3||10 (-5)||4 (+1)|
|Wailea/Makena||15||5||16||4||10 (-6)||8 (+4)|
|Wailuku||39||35||41||22||36 (-5)||26 (+4)|
End of September Home Inventory Review
The information above is provided with the usual framework. The home inventory data by price point includes all of the island of Maui, but excludes the islands of Molokai and Lanai. The district information is limited to the districts with the most activity.
- The inventory of active homes fell 12.2% between the last day of August and the last day of September.
- Active inventory decreased in all price ranges below $3,000,000. There was a modest increase in inventory between $3,000,000 and $10,000,000, no change between $10,000,000 and $19,999,999, and a decrease in inventory above $20,000,000.
- Pending sales activity increased 12.9% over last month! This is a surprising reverse of recent trends. It is an especially big surprise with the recent mortgage rate increases.
- The biggest increase in pending sales occurred below $2,000,000. Above that price range the number of pending sales was either steady or increased by one. No price ranges experienced a decrease in pending sales activity. It is worth noting that the $10,000,000 to $19,999,999 range had no pending sales as of the end of August and still has no pending sales.
- Looking at the different communities around the island, only two communities saw an increase in inventory. Haiku and Hana both saw modest increases in active listings. Anecdotally, it seems like some sellers in these windward communities try to get homes on to the market before the start of the rainy season later in the fall. I haven’t taken the plunge to determine if there is any quantitative evidence to support that claim.
- After seeing big growth in inventory in late Spring and early Summer, Kihei saw the biggest decrease in active inventory for the second month in a row. Notably, the total number of pending sales in Kihei did not change. With that in mind, I decided to look a little closer at the Kihei market activity. While Kihei added 8 new pending sales this month, 7 sales closed, 8 listings cancelled and 2 expired. Only 4 new listings came to market. Based on those numbers, the reason for the decrease in inventory is multi-faceted. The cancellations could be a sign of seller capitulation (more on that below) or just sellers taking a break. We shall see.
- Wailea and Wailuku are the two communities that saw the biggest increase in pending sales with 4 net new pendings. Wailea’s increase is a little more notable due to the percentage increase in pending sales. It’s worth mentioning that 4 of the 5 overall new pending sales in Wailea and Makena reduced prices before going under contract. There’s something to be said for listening to market feedback and adjusting price.
Maui Condo Inventory
|$250,000-$499,999||11||23||14||17||11 (-3)||16 (-1)|
|$500,000-$749,999||43||39||34||43||28 (-6)||40 (-3)|
|$1,000,000-$1,499,999||30||31||29||31||19 (-10)||36 (+5)|
|$1,500,000-$1,999,999||30||33||24||35||18 (-6)||34 (-1)|
|$2,000,000-$2,999,999||20||36||22||38||14 (-8)||43 (+5)|
|$3,000,000-$4,999,999||12||18||12||19||10 (-2)||17 (-2)|
|$5,000,000-$9,999,999||10||3||8||1||7 (-1)||0 (-1)|
|Totals||205||234||181||233||145 (-36)||222 (-11)|
|Ka’anapali||24||13||25||16||17 (-8)||14 (-3)|
|Kapalua||10||10||11||6||10 (-1)||4 (-2)|
|Kihei||67||60||50||63||48 (-2)||61 (-2)|
|Lahaina||16||8||9||10||5 (-4)||7 (-3)|
|Ma’alaea||5||6||3||6||4 (+1)||4 (-2)|
|Napili/Kahana/Hono||40||34||45||25||29 (-16)||30 (+5)|
|Wailuku||14||13||9||14||8 (-1)||12 (-2)|
End of September Condo Inventory Review
Again, the tables above come with the usual framework for our end of month inventory. The table by price point includes all condos on Maui, but it does not include condos on the islands of Molokai or Lanai. The table with districts is limited to the communities with the most activity. Pending sales at La’i Loa at Wailea Hills skew the data in Wailea and the $1,500,000-$5,000,000 price ranges. There are 75 pending sales in that development based on contracts penned in 2020 and the first quarter of 2021. Pending sales in La’i Loa won’t start to close until sometime in 2023. Paradise Ridge Estates in Kihei also skews the data albeit to a lesser extent. There are 18 pending sales with that development based on contracts penned between 2018 and the first quarter of 2022. Overall, 41.89% of current pending sales are long term new developer contracts.
- The number of active condo listings at the end of September is 19.89% lower than at the end of August.
- Active inventory decreased in seven out of ten price ranges in the table above. Net inventory was unchanged in the remaining 3 ranges.
- Pending condo sales dropped 5.2% compared to the end of August. Is this a reflection of reduced inventory, reduced demand or both? It’s hard to say. That said, I did get a surprising number of e-mails last month from fellow Realtors seeking out condo inventory for buyers struggling to find what they want.
- Pending sales dropped in seven of ten price ranges. Pending sales increased between $1,000,000-$1,499,999 and $2,000,000 and $2,999,999.
- Ma’alaea is the only community where inventory increased last month albeit with just one more active listing than at the end of August. Kahului’s inventory is unchanged.
- Napili, Kahana and Honokowai experienced the biggest decrease in inventory with 16 fewer listings at the end of this month. It was also the only community where pending sales increased. The eighteen new pending sales shows pretty healthy activity. It seems that the increase in pending sales is the biggest driver for the decrease in active listings in this market, but cancelled listings were also a factor. Seven sellers pulled their listings off the market.
September is a transitional month on Maui. The summer tourism season is over and we are still a few months from our peak winter season. Anecdotally, I always thought of this as a month where some sellers will opt to take a pause from selling their home only to relist when it gets closer to winter tourism season. With the sharp decrease in active listings this month, I wanted to look closer at cancelled and expired listings. Is September actually a bigger month for cancellations historically? If so, how does this year compare to previous years? Is there anything that can be gleaned from this September’s high cancellations?
|September||40 (1)||28 (2)||39 (t6)||50 (1)||41 (11)|
|September||29 (1)||13 (11)||43 (t2)||44 (3)||41 (11)|
Before discussing the numbers above, it is worth noting that there is some noise when it comes to cancelled listings. An agent changing brokerages or one brokerage buying another can inflate cancelled listings. The change in brokerages results in cancelled listings immediately replaced by new listings as old listing contracts are cancelled and new contracts created. I noticed some noise in this month’s cancelled home listings. Hoku’ula, a new development Upcountry, cancelled their MLS listings last month and put them back on the market as new listings at a higher price.
With that framework, let’s address the first question that I posed above. Is September a bigger month historically for cancellations? It appears to be one of the biggest months for canceled home listings albeit with some notable exceptions in the chart above. For condos, it is a little more extreme. Some years it is near the top and others near the bottom with no clear cut reason for the variability.
So what does that say about this year? Even without those five Hoku’ula cancellations, September would still be the highest month for home cancellation for the year to date. September is also leading for cancelled condo listings despite rather limited inventory. It’s hard to say definitively if this is strictly seasonal or if any of those cancellations are due to seller capitulation. That said, it would make sense if we start to see some sellers retreat from the market for non-seasonal reasons. Sellers who were fishing for ultra high prices, don’t need to sell or need to borrow at higher rates to buy a new place could all have reason to pull their listing under current conditions.
Recent increases in interest rates are generating more price reductions nationally. Sellers are reacting to the decreased affordability posed by higher rates. What about the Maui market? Are we seeing similar trends? I looked at price reductions for active inventory on September 29th.
As of the 29th, 95 out of 224 active listings or 42.41% of all properties reduced their price one or more times. As of September 2nd, that numbers was 42.97%. On August 15th, it was 39.67%. While price reductions are up since the early summer, the more recent decrease in price reductions is somewhat surprising in light of the recent increases in rates.
On the condo front, 36 out of 144 active listings reduced their price one or more times. That calculates to 25% of active inventory. That is down from 27.84% on September 2nd and 29.62% of all listings on August 15th.
With inventory shrinking, perhaps sellers are feeling emboldened to stick to their guns on pricing. The higher level of cash and or low inventory levels seem to be making this market less responsive to interest rate changes thus far.
How Quickly Are New Listings Going Under Contract?
Another metric we continue to watch in the musings is how quickly things are going under contract. Specifically, what percentage of listings are going under contract within 10 days or less. We started tracking this in mid-February when the number was right around 56%. That was pretty much the peak of our winter frenzy. For properties that were listed between September 12th and 19th, 34% of all listings went under contract within 10 days. That is actually up from 29.79% between August 10th and 17th.
For home listings, 32.14% of new listings between September 12th and September 19th went under contract within 10 days or less. By comparison, 38.1% of all homes listed between 9/12/21 and 9/19/21 went under contract in 10 days or less. For a pre-covid comparison, 41.18% of all homes listed between 9/12/19 and 9/19/19 went under contract within 10 days or less. It is worth mentioning that 41% is a much higher percentage than other weeks we’ve looked at in 2019. For example, only 19.04% of homes listed between 9/27/2019 and 10/3/2019 went under contract in 10 days or less.
For condo listings, 36.36% of all new listings went under contract within 10 days between September 12th and 19th. Last year, an eye popping 67.74% of condos listed between 9/12 and 9/19 were under contract in ten days or less. In 2019, 27.27% of all condos listed between 9/12 and 9/19 went under contract within 10 days or less.
Overall, the market is way less frenzied than last year. However, properties are going under contract faster than in a “normal” Maui market. There are definitely fewer buyers, but there are enough buyers out there for the limited supply that over one third of the inventory is going under contract quickly.
A Few Closing Thoughts on the State of the Maui Market
The numbers compiled above paint a picture of a more resilient Maui market than one might expect. We actually saw fewer price reductions for homes and condos while pending home sales increased! Not exactly the market response one would predict when interest rates increase to their highest point in 15 or more years. It appears at this point that limited inventory is still having a significant impact on the market despite the rising borrowing costs.
Will that sustain itself through the rest of the year and into early 2023? I was suprised by this month so who knows what the future will hold. It’s likely that the market has yet to feel the full weight of higher interest rates. Add in signs of a slowing economy and our market is facing additional headwinds. Ultimately, the Maui market moving forward will be a balancing act between the impact of higher rates and supply constraints. Conditions well vary around Maui by both price point, location and property type.
With interest rates likely to remain elevated into the immediate future, more real estate economists are anticipating price corrections. Reading beyond the headlines, economists expect variability in market corrections across the country. Rates will be a market driver, as will the state of the economy and local inventory. It’s important not to base market decisions on national headlines, but instead on relevant local data. We plan to continue with our Musings and community market updates so Maui buyers and sellers have the data to make informed decisions.
A Little Maui Beauty to Brighten Your Day
Contact The Maui Real Estate Team
Questions about the post above? Wondering about conditions in a specific part of the Maui Market? Need assistance buying or selling a property on Maui? Contact The Maui Real Estate Team for assistance. One of our experienced and savvy agents would welcome the chance to sit down with you to discuss your real estate needs.
Maui Real Estate Blog
Maui Market Musings Volume XVI
Sweet sixteen! This is the 16th edition of our almost weekly look at the Maui Real Estate market. This latest edition is highlighted by our monthly inventory check. We break down end of the month home and condo inventory by both community and price point. We also check in on the percentage of the active inventory with price reductions, and the percentage of new listings going under contract in ten days or less. Collectively, the three metrics give us a better sense of current market conditions. Last but not least, this edition highlights a couple of national perspectives on the real estate market.
Inventory Watch for Single Family Homes
|<$750,000||6||22||6||16||11 (+5)||14 (-2)|
|$750,000-$999,999||19||54||32||63||25 (-7)||62 (-1)|
|$1,000,000-$1,499,999||43||37||58||34||65 (+7)||25 (-9)|
|$1,500,000-$1,999,999||30||27||44||22||41 (-3)||19 (-3)|
|$2,000,000-$2,999,999||37||14||34||15||31 (-3)||19 (+4)|
|$3,000,000-$4.999,999||24||11||27||10||25 (-2)||9 (-1)|
|$5,000,000-$9,999,999||22||8||23||8||24 (+1)||7 (-1)|
|Totals||193||176||241||169||239 (-2)||156 (-13)|
|Haiku||15||12||20||13||22 (+2)||11 (-2)|
|Kahului||11||24||8||27||13 (+5)||21 (-6)|
|Kihei||27||25||45||22||48 (+3)||14 (-8)|
|Kula||24||12||25||13||19 (-6)||16 (+3)|
|Lahaina||15||15||20||18||18 (-2)||14 (-4)|
|Makawao||11||17||13||12||14 (+1)||9 (-3)|
|Napili/Kahana/Hono…||12||5||12||3||10 (-2)||6 (+3)|
|Pukalani||5||12||12||7||7 (-5)||6 (-1)|
|Wailea/Makena||8||5||13||4||15 (+2)||5 (+1)|
End of July Home Inventory Review
Here are some notes about the data above to provide some framework. The price range chart includes all of the island of Maui, but not the islands of Lanai or Molokai. The list of districts above is limited to those with the most activity.
- After seeing an increase in inventory in June, the inventory of active home listings actually decreased in July by approximately 1%. We just aren’t seeing the substantive increase in home inventory that many mainland markets experienced this spring and early summer.
- The decrease in pending sales continues. Pending sales are 8% below the end of June and 12% below the end of May.
- Looking at the different price points, I think the two most notable price ranges are homes priced below $750,000 and listings between $1,000,000 and $1,499,999.
- The below $750,000 range turned my head at first glance. The “entry point” to the Maui market’s been one of the most competitive parts of the market for some time. When I looked at the actual inventory, the increased inventory in this range consists of properties that need a lot of work. Fix and flip buyers who might pursue opportunities like this seem to be less active.
- The $1,000,000 to $1,499,999 price range is the one segment of the market that saw increases in inventory in both June and July. Inventory at the end of July is 51% higher than it was at the end of May. This price range also had the biggest drop in pending sales over July. This is a price range that is likely feeling the effects of affordability challenges. It is out of reach for most Maui residents particularly with higher borrowing costs.
- The $2,000,000-$2,999,999 price range is the one market segment that saw an increase in pending sales.
- Looking at the different communities around the island, Kihei is noteworthy for both an increase in inventory and a decrease in sales. Inventory is up 77% from the end of May and pending sales are down 37%. Billy and I were discussing why Kihei may be seeing the biggest increase in inventory. It’s hard to say definitively. That said, we both noticed a fair amount of aspirational pricing among the active inventory.
- The other thing to note about the community chart is some of the variability evident. Some places that saw increased inventory last month saw decreases this month and vice versa. With these small sample sizes, I surmise we may continue to see month to month shifts in a number of communities.
Inventory Watch for Condos
|$250,000-$499,999||12||23||19||25||11 (-8)||23 (-2)|
|$500,000-$749,999||18||55||31||40||43 (+8)||39 (-1)|
|$1,000,000-$1,499,999||23||49||29||30||30 (+1)||31 (+1)|
|$1,500,000-$1,999,999||21||34||28||34||30 (+2)||33 (-1)|
|$3,000,000-$4,999,999||12||22||11||25||12 (+1)||18 (-7)|
|Totals||149||293||199||247||205 (+6)||234 (-13)|
|Ka’anapali||23||23||23||15||24 (+1)||13 (-2)|
|Kahului||5||8||4||3||2 (-2)||8 (+5)|
|Kapalua||7||15||12||9||10 (-2)||10 (+1)|
|Kihei||35||95||55||74||67 (+12)||60 (-14)|
|Wailea/Makena||16||91||23||85||25 (+2)||82 (-3)|
|Wailuku||9||11||12||12||14 (+2)||13 (+1)|
End of July Condo Inventory Review
The price points table includes all condos on Maui, but it does not include condos on Molokai or Lanai. The table with districts is limited to the districts with the most activity. As mentioned in previous musings that look at inventory, pending sales at La’i Loa at Wailea Hills skew the data in Wailea and the $1,500,000-$5,000,000 price ranges. There are 75 pending sales in that development based on contracts penned in 2020 and the first quarter of 2021. Pending sales in La’i Loa won’t start to close until sometime in 2023.
- After a big 33% jump in inventory between the end of May and June, the inventory of active listings increased a modest 3% by the last day of July.
- Pending sales also continued to drop with a 5.3% decrease in pending sales on July 31st compared to June 30th. That compares to the 16% drop between the end of May and the end of June.
- When you hone in on the different price points, only 4 out of 10 of the price ranges actually experienced increases in inventory. Two of the four only increased by a single condo.
- The lion’s share of the increase in inventory occurred in the $500,000 to $749,999 price range. Looking at the listings in that price range, the majority of those units are non-vacation rental condos geared toward island residents. This segment of the market showed surprising resiliency as rates increased. It seems to be cooling with inventory and days on market both increasing.
- Pending sales decreased across 5 of 10 price points. The $3,000,000 to $4,999,999 price range experienced the largest dip in activity with 7 fewer pending sales.
- Looking at the inventory changes by community, Kihei stands out with the biggest increase in active listings and the biggest decrease in pending listings. Again, I am not sure I can pin point a single reason. As with Kihei homes, I surmise sellers with aspirational pricing play a part. There are also quite a few non-vacation rental Kihei Condos in that $500,000-$750,000 range.
- The Napili, Kahana and Honokowai area took a different trajectory from Kihei with 8 fewer listings on the market.
- Looking at the resorts, Ka’anapali and Wailea both saw modest increases in inventory while Kapalua inventory decreased modestly.
While inventory remains limited, we are seeing an increasing number of price reductions. As of August 15th, a total of 39.67% of active home listings reduced price one or more times. That compares to 34.03% as of July 4th. In the condo market, 29.26% of condo listings reduced asking price as of August 15th. On July 4th, 24.63% of all condo listings reduced list price.
It’s worth taking a minute to delve into exactly what an increase in price reductions might mean. To be honest, it really varies on a case by case basis. It’s pretty clear that a number of sellers in this market priced with first quarter market conditions in mind. During that time, prices increased upwards rapidly. Sellers could get away with being ambitious. Fast forward 5 months and the rate of appreciation is slowing significantly. If someone wants or needs to sell sooner, they are going to have to price closer to recent comparable sales. More sellers hoping that frothy market conditions continued into the 2nd and 3rd quarter are adjusting their expectations.
It’s also worth noting that pricing on Maui can be challenging. There is enough heterogeneity in the market that even sellers trying to price near comparable sales can miss the mark. If sellers and their agents struggle to value a property due to its unique characteristics, they may need to receive market feedback and adjust accordingly.
At this point, the price reductions that occurring appear to be sellers either the ambitious adjusting expectations or those struggling to come up with a value responding to the market. I haven’t seen any price reduction data that shows sellers on Maui adjusting prices below recent comparable sales. If we do start to see any shifts in value, it is likely going to occur first in the pockets of the market where inventory is higher.
Demand for New Listings
In February, we started tracking what percentage of properties went under contract in ten days or less. Back then, 56% of all listings went under contract within 10 days. That percentage slowly decreased throughout the spring with a more pronounced shift after interest rates spiked above 5%. For the period between July 25th and August 1st, the number dipped down to 22.45% of all active listings. For comparison, 50.94% of all new listings went under contract within 10 days between July 25th and August 1st of 2021. During the same period of 2019, 28% of new listings went under contract within 10 days of coming to market.
There is some discrepancy between homes and condos for this metric. For the 25th through the 1st, 26.92% of new condo listings and 17.36% of homes went under contract within 10 days of hitting the market. Again for comparison’s sake, between 7/25/21 and 8/5/21, 48% homes and 57% of condos went under contract within 10 days or less of being listed. For the period between 7/25/19 and 8/1/19, 25% of homes and 30.23% of condos went under contract within 10 days or less of being listed.
The numbers above would suggest that market conditions are definitely a lot cooler than earlier this year or this time last year. It would also seem to suggest that the market is cooler than pre-covid conditions in 2019. That said, it is worth noting that 2019 was a pretty strong year for real estate on island.
A Few National Real Estate Perspectives Worth Sharing
It’s been a while since we posted some national perspectives on the real estate market. I thought it might be worth sharing some thoughts I recently came across on social media.
I am not sure that the tweet above is a new perspective to all of our readers, but I thought it was one worth reiterating. While there’s been a demand slow down across the board in the national market, local market conditions are strongly impacted by available inventory. Some former hot spots for real estate appreciation are seeing stronger market shifts and signs of price decreases as inventory ballooned over the last few months. Other places where inventory growth remains limited aren’t experiencing downward pressure on pricing. Maui more closely resembles the latter than the former.
If you have a little time, I also included this video from the folks at Altos Research. It discusses some of the recent changes in their market analysis and forecasts as the rate of inventory growth is slowing around the country.
They suggest that the chances of broader price reductions are lowering due to the more limited inventory growth. It will be interesting to compare their current projections to the actual conditions in the fall market.
Some Maui Beauty to Brighten Your Post
Contact The Maui Real Estate Team
If you have questions or comments on this post, Contact The Maui Real Estate Team. Thinking of buying or selling property on Maui? Call us or send us an e-mail, we would welcome the chance to sit down with you to discuss your real estate needs.
Maui Real Estate Blog
Maui Market Musings Vol. IV
Eye Catching Numbers From The February Stats, Interest Rates and More
This week’s market musings takes a look at some of the notable numbers from the February sales statistics and the latest on interest rates. Without further ado…
Notable Numbers from The February Stats
The Realtors Association of Maui recently released their February 2022 statistics. These are some of the numbers that I found particularly noteworthy.
- New inventory decreased for homes and condos 6.7% and 17.3% respectively compared to February 2021. This speaks to Maui’s continued inventory crunch.
- Pending sales for homes and condos dipped by 27% and 31% compared to last February. This is in part due to a lack of inventory and in part because the period between February and April of 2021 were the busiest in Maui’s history for closed transactions. For these same reasons, I surmise you will see similar year to year decreases in pending sales throughout the rest of the Spring.
- The days on market for homes increased just than 1% compared to last February. On the other hand, condo days on market dipped 46.8% compared to last February. While some of this is due to a particularly strong condo market, this can also be traced to a divergent home and condo market during 2020. Home inventory decreased throughout 2020. Condo inventory, and vacation rental condo inventory in particular, increased throughout most of 2020. It only started to trend down towards the end of the year after the reopening of our tourism economy in October. There was a pretty healthy inventory of condos with higher days on market to start 2021. As a result, many of the early 2021 sales had pretty high days on market. In 2022, there are a lot fewer condo listings sitting around for long before going under contract.
- The median sales price of single family homes and condos increased 18.3% and 31.2% respectively. To be clear, these numbers do not directly reflect changes in property values. Changing values do influence median sales price. However, the median price is also influenced by the composition of the properties sold. We touched on estimated price increases since the start of Covid in Musings Volume II. Across a variety of properties, we saw values increases between 28 and 46% over the last two years.
- Single family home inventory decreased 25.6% compared to last February. Condo inventory is down 71.3%. Again, this goes back to the differences of inventory to start 2021. The condo market had a pretty healthy supply of condos for sale, while the home market entered the year with far fewer condos. Relevant to the here and now, inventory levels remain really low for both homes and condos.
- Two markets stood out for an increase in activity. Both the Kihei and the Napili, Kahana, Honokowai districts saw big increases in condo sales. Vacation rental condo sales drove the increased activity. Sales of Kihei condos that allow vacation rentals are up 32% this February compared to last February. Sales of Napili, Kahana and Honokowai vacation rental condos were up a whopping 93.75%.
Interest Rate Watch
After flat to declining interest rates, the 30 year fixed rate jumped above 4% for the first time since 2019.
This is a resumption of the upward trend over the last six months. Rates dipped with the start of the war in Ukraine as investors shifted from equities to more secure bonds. Mortgage rates tend to generally follow the ten year treasury bond. A subsequent sell off in bonds due to news on inflation and future fed increases allowed rates to increase again. While the gradual increase in rates is forecast to continue, some economists predict that global uncertainty may dampen the rate of increase in mortgage rates this year.
And For Something Non-Real Estate Related…
My posts can’t be all numbers all the time. Chances are if you are reading this, your interest in the island extends beyond real estate. You appreciate Maui’s people, natural beauty, flora and fauna. With that in mind, I thought it was worth sharing this short video from earlier in the week. Here is one of Maui’s most famous winter visitors being saved from an entanglement of fishing gear.
Contact The Maui Real Estate Team
That’s it from this week’s Market Musings. Contact us if you have any questions about the market, requests for content on future posts or of course need assistance buying or selling property on Maui.
Maui Real Estate Blog
Taking the Pulse of the West Maui Vacation Rental Condo Market
We recently posted on a surge in activity in the South Maui Vacation Rental Market. Wailea and Kihei both saw a big increase in condo sales for the year to date. West Maui is home to the other big concentration of vacation rental condos on island. The West side has not been the best side for sales this year. Condo activity is off compared to 2016. This post takes a look at sales activity in the different areas of West Maui, looks at a few condos that have seen stronger activity and takes a look at a couple of factors that could be driving the slower sales on this side of the island.
As of June 7th, there have been 145 vacation rental condos sold in West Maui this year. As of the same time last year, there were 176 vacation rental condos that sold in West Maui. That is an 18% reduction in sales volume. I broke down the sales by price ranges to try to see if the decrease in activity occurred across the board. Condo sales $500,000 and under were down 22%. There were 57 sales this year as compared to 73 last year in this price range. The middle part of the market between $500,001 and $1,000,000 performed the strongest of any market segment with a modest increase of 4.6% over last year. There were 67 sales compared to 64 over the same period of 2016. The high end of the West Maui vacation rental market saw the steepest decline in activity of any market segment. Sales were down 51% for vacation rental condos priced from $1,000,001 on up. There were 23 sales compared to 45 sales over the same period of 2016.
The Lahaina condo market was the one area of West Maui that saw an increase in activity compared to last year. Lahaina has a small number of vacation rental condo complexes with four total properties. Those four complexes saw activity increase by 35% for the year as of June 7, 2017. It was a good five plus months of sales in Lahaina, but one condo stood out above the others.
Aina Nalu is located one block off of Front Street in historic Lahaina Town. There are 190 units at the complex spread over 11 buildings on 18 acres. There are studio, one bedroom and two bedroom floor plans. Prices range from the $300,000s for one bedrooms to the low $400,000s for two bedrooms. Owners value the grounds, the two nice pools, the tropical design elements and the location. If you were so inclined, this is a place where you could stay without driving your car with Front Street so close by. The property had 5 sales through just over five months of 2016. As of June 7th, there were 12 sales in Aina Nalu. That is an impressive 240% increase in sales activity.
As you head North from Lahaina, the Ka’anapali condo market has seen a dip in condo sales activity for the first five months of the year compared to the same period of 2016. Sales slipped from 63 sales to start 2016 to 42 sales as of June 7, 2017. That is a 33% decrease in activity. The decrease in sales was almost across the board with only Ka’anapali Royal registering more sales this year than last year with 4 sales compared to 2. While I typically focus on the condos that stand out among the crowd for higher sales activity, I wanted to take a look at the condo complex that saw the biggest dip in activity.
Honua Kai is the last fee simple whole ownership condo to be built in the Ka’anapali Area. It has 711 units spread over two seven story towers on 40 acres. The Hoku Lani tower was completed in 2009 and the Konea tower was completed in 2010. Honua Kai has extensive amenities including three separate pools and an onsite restaurant, grocery store and spa. It has studio, one bedroom, two bedroom and three bedroom condominiums. Prices range from the high 600s for a select few mountain view one bedrooms up to over $5,000,000 for the best located three bedroom units. People who own at Honua Kai appreciate the significant amenities, the beachfront location, the newness of the location and the rental demand.
Honua Kai has had a big impact on the West Maui Condo market since 2005 when they started taking the first round of pre-construction reservations. Those reservations generated a significant number of sales during the doldrums of the post crash real estate market. This goosed the condo sales numbers when overall demand was low. I dubbed this distortion of the statistics The Honua Kai Effect.
June of 2016 was the last new developer sale at Honua Kai. There were 15 new developer sales between January 1, 2016 and June 7, 2016. That gives some context before I provide this year’s sales numbers. There were 14 Honua Kai Sales for the year as of June 7th. Last year, there were 32 over that same period of time. That is a 54% drop in sales volume. The new developer sales account for most, but not all of the difference between this year and last year’s sales volume.
Honua Kai remains a popular choice for West Maui condo buyers. While we saw a big dip in activity, it still saw more sales than any other West Maui condo.
Napili, Kahana, Honokowai
The three communities located between Ka’anapali and Kapalua offer the greatest concentration of oceanfront condos in West Maui. It was another area that has seen a decrease in activity in 2017. There were 57 sales in this area five months and a week in to 2017. That is down 22% from the 73 sales through the same period of 2016. The bulk of the condo complexes in this area saw a decrease in activity with a few exceptions.
Papakea is an oceanfront complex in the Honokowai area. It has 364 condos spread over 11 buildings on just over 12 acres. There are studio, one bedroom and two bedroom floor plans. This complex is predominantly fee simple, but there are some leasehold units. Papakea has a pretty broad range of prices. Leasehold one bedrooms start right around $200,000. The most expensive units are direct oceanfront two bedroom units. They sell for as much as $1,000,000. Owners like the oceanfront location, amenities and relaxed feel. Papakea had a pretty good start to 2016 with 10 sales in just over five months. This year was 40% better with 14 sales in the same period of time.
While most of West Maui was either markedly stronger or weaker this year compared to last year, Kapalua has been pretty steady with the same number of sales this year as last year. There were 14 vacation rental condos sold this year as of June 7th, compared to 14 over the same period last year. While the overall numbers were the same, there were some shifts in activity among the five complexes that allow vacation rentals. I wanted to highlight the one condo that saw the biggest increase in activity and the highest number of sales overall.
Kapalua Golf Villas
Kapalua Golf Villas is situated along the beautiful Kapalua Bay Course. There are 186 units spread over 16 buildings on 15.8 acres. Amenities include three pools. The property went through extensive renovations in 2014. Prices range from the high $500,000s for one bedrooms lower on the golf course to just under a million for fully upgraded two bedrooms with good ocean views. Views, finishing and floor plans are the primary drivers on price. Kapalua Golf Villas offer the lowest priced entry point into the Kapalua Real Estate market. Owners appreciate the location on the Bay course, the views and the proximity to Kapalua Beaches and to other resort amenities.
Kapalua Golf Villas has been the busiest of the Kapalua condos in 2017. There have been 7 units sold as June 7th. There were 4 sold over the same period last year. That is a 75% increase in sales activity.
What’s Driving the West Maui Market
South Maui vacation rental condos have been booming this year while West Maui has been slower. They are two seemingly similar markets. What is driving the difference in market behavior? I was able to give some pretty good reasons as to why I think the South Maui market has surged to start the year. Determining what might be holding things back in West Maui is a little more challenging. The one clear cut cause was already discussed. Honua Kai is seeing less activity now that it is just resales and there are no more new developer listings.
Are there any other factors keeping down West Maui sales numbers? The state of Kahana Bay may be impacting sales. This section of West Maui coastline has significant erosion issues. Hololani has been struggling with erosion issues for a number of years. Those issues expanded down the coast last year. Royal Kahana and Valley Isle Resort had to put up emergency sandbags during the winter of 2016 to halt a rapid loss of shoreline. There are now nine condo associations that are a part of efforts to develop a shoreline replenishment plan. With the cost of beach replenishment expected to approach ten million dollars, the individual owners in those nine complexes are facing a big assessment to pay for the project. While the numbers of condos sold in the nine complexes this year is pretty similar to what we saw last year, the uncertainty over this coastline and the potential future costs may be limiting the potential for growth in this market.
The one other factor that could be at play is plain old variability. We see that in the market from time to time. Some years West Maui has stronger years for sales activity and some years it is South Maui that has a big year. The underlying reasons aren’t so clear cut. This may be just one of those years for West Maui. When you add in the other factors previously mentioned, those three things in and of itself could account for the 18% drop we have seen. If you are a close follower of the West Maui market and you have any other theories, we would welcome your input in the comments below.
The good news for potential buyers is that there is still a lot of inventory in this market. This is particularly the case with condos priced from $500,000 and up. You can search through the current inventory of Kapalua Condos for Sale and Ka’anapali Condos for sale on MauiRealEstate.com. You can also search the MLS for condos listed in Lahaina, Napili, Kahana and Honokowai. Contact The Maui Real Estate Team if you want to talk to a real estate agent about West Maui Vacation Rental Condos. We would welcome the chance to learn more about what you are looking for and to assist you in your search for a condo that will fit your needs.
Maui Real Estate Blog
Direct Oceanfront Two Bedroom at Paki Maui
Are views at the top of the list in your condo search? Then Paki Maui 105 should be on your list of Maui condos to view. This 2 bedroom, 2 bath ground floor condo in Honokowai has million dollar views of the Pacific and the neighboring islands of Molokai and Lanai. During the winter months, the odds are good that you will be able to watch whales while sipping your morning coffee on the lanai. The condo is currently used as a vacation rental with a strong history of bookings. Keep it in the rental program or just keep it for personal use.
Honokowai is a quiet area of West Maui with mostly low rise condominiums. Paki Maui is within walking distance of the Honokowai Farmer’s market and a variety of shops.
Paki Maui 105 is offered for $849,000. This condo is no longer listed for sale. Contact The Maui Real Estate Team for assistance with other Maui Oceanfront Condos.