Tag: Ka'anapali Condos
Maui Real Estate Blog
Maui Market Musings Volume XXII
We are starting off 2023 with volume 22 of our market musings. Early January means that we are in the beginning of what is traditionally our peak real estate season on Maui. This post helps to give a sense of recent market demand and current inventory levels as we enter into what should be the busiest 3-4 months of the year for real estate transactions on island.
December Market Activity
We start things off by taking a look back at December. How many new listings came to market, went under contract and sold? Activity from the five previous Decembers are given for additional context.
New inventory during the month of December was below normal. The number of new listings is anywhere between 25% and 36% lower than what we would anticipate in the pre-Covid Decembers of 2017-2019. This December’s home inventory benefited from an influx of new listings in the Hoku’ula subdivision in Upcountry Maui towards the end of the month. Were it not for those 19 listings, new inventory would be even further below what’s considered normal.
New condo inventory was significantly lower than usual in December. It is anywhere between 47% and 56% below the December new inventory of 2017-2019. Whether it’s the golden handcuffs of low interest rates, the lack of potential replacement properties or just loving their place on Maui, people are holding on to their condos for now.
While new inventory was low, buyer demand also remained low in December. The number of new pending home sales came in at anywhere between 32-33% below what we saw in the three years prior to the start of Covid.
New Pending condo sales came in between 45% and 52% below the activity seen over the years prior to Covid. The slow down in new condo inventory and sales activity is particularly pronounced over the last few months.
The closed transactions in December give us some insight to market demand a little earlier in the fall. Most of these closes came out of contracts agreed to in October and November. Home sales were between 28 and 33% lower than a typical Pre-Covid December. Condo sales in December are between 45 and 53% lower than the three Decembers prior to the start of Covid. Of course, this December’s home and condo sales are way below 2020 and 2021 sales volume.
End of December Maui Inventory
Inventory, or lack thereof, continues to be a significant factor in our market. While new inventory remains low, quieter buyer activity over the last 2-3 months allowed for modest growth in the overall number of properties for sale. That said, we still have a lot less inventory that what was more typical pre-Covid. The charts below provide detail on active and pending listings by price point and community.
End of December Home Inventory
|<$750,000||9||15||5||14||6 (+1)||10 (-4)|
|$750,000-$999,999||29||29||31||25||25 (-6)||28 (+3)|
|$1,000,000-$1,499,999||64||28||61||28||78 (+17)||20 (-8)|
|$1,500,000-$1,999,999||41||13||28||17||36 (+8)||11 (-6)|
|$2,000,000-$2,999,999||35||10||34||11||37 (+3)||12 (-1)|
|$3,000,000-$4,999,999||32||7||32||7||31 (-1)||9 (+2)|
|$5,000,000-$9,999,999||26||5||23||9||27 (+4)||8 (-1)|
|$20,000,000+||3||1||5||1||4 (-1)||2 (+1)|
|Totals||248||108||233||112||258 (+25)||100 (-12)|
|Kihei||40||11||31||15||39 (+8)||7 (-8)|
|Kula||20||11||22||12||21 (-1)||10 (-2)|
|Lahaina||22||13||15||13||18 (+3)||11 (-2)|
|Makawao||13||9||11||7||35 (+24)||4 (-3)|
|Napili/Kahana/Honokowai||11||6||9||3||13 (+2)||3 (-3)|
|Sprecks/Paia||8||2||7||3||9 (+2)||1 (-2)|
|Wailea||11||4||16||4||13 (-3)||6 (+2)|
|Wailuku||40||21||32||19||25 (-7)||25 (+6)|
Notable Numbers from the End of December Home Inventory
The information above is provided with the usual framework. The home inventory data by price point includes all of the island of Maui, but excludes the islands of Molokai and Lanai. The district information is limited to the districts and communities with the most activity.
- For the second month in a row, the inventory of active home listings increased on Maui. Active inventory increased 10.7%. A good portion of the bump in inventory can be traced to the 19 new developer listings in the Hoku’ula subdivision.
- Changes in active inventory varied by price point. Five price points increased in inventory, three decreased and one was unchanged. The price range with the biggest increase in inventory was between $1,000,000 and $2,000,000. Again, that was largely due to Hoku’ula. It was notable that the $750,000-$999,999 price range saw the biggest drop in active listings from the month prior. Inventory in that segment increased steadily in the the previous three months. With a higher percentage of financed buyers in this price point, the spike in interest rates earlier in the fall curtailed buyer demand.
- Overall Pending home inventory decreased from the end of November. The number of pending homes dipped 10.71% between November 30th and December 31st.
- By price point, pending sales increased in three price ranges, decreased in five and remained unchanged in three price points. The biggest increase in pending sales occurred in the $750,000-$999,999 range. Perhaps recent decreases in interest rates provided some relief to buyers in that price range. The biggest decrease in pending sales occurred in the $1,000,000-$2,000,000 price range.
- At a community level, inventory trends continued to vary. Inventory increased in 5 communities, decreased in 4 and remained unchanged in 5 districts. The biggest increase by far was in Makawao (the Hoku’ula effect) followed by Kihei. Wailuku inventory decreased the most.
- Pending sales decreased in most communities. Kihei pending sales decreased the most month to month. Wailuku experienced the biggest increase in pending sales.
End of December Maui Condo Inventory
|<$250,000||2||4||1||4||2 (+1)||2 (-2)|
|$250,000-$499,999||19||12||19||14||12 (-7)||16 (+2)|
|$500,000-$749,999||32||35||43||33||38 (-5)||25 (-8)|
|$750,000-$999,999||27||27||28||29||42 (+14)||27 (-2)|
|$1,000,000-$1,499,999||21||30||31||24||32 (+1)||21 (-1)|
|$1,500,000-$1,999,999||14||33||21||28||26 (+5)||29 (+1)|
|$3,000,000-$4,999,999||10||17||11||17||10 (-1)||18 (+1)|
|$5,000,000-$9,999,999||11||1||12||2||14 (+2)||0 (-2)|
|Total||154||200||187||190||198 (+11)||174 (-16)|
|Ka’anapali||18||9||25||4||22 (-3)||9 (+5)|
|Kahului||5||5||5||5||4 (-1)||3 (-2)|
|Kapalua||12||4||14||2||12 (-2)||3 (+1)|
|Kihei||43||60||53||61||61 (+8)||45 (-16)|
|Lahaina||8||4||14||8||11 (-3)||12 (+4)|
|Ma’alaea||3||6||4||8||5 (+1)||5 (-3)|
|Napili/Kahana/Honokowai||33||17||39||19||50 (+11)||16 (-3)|
|Wailea/Makena||19||85||23||85||27 (+4)||79 (-6)|
|Wailuku||11||10||8||8||4 (-4)||4 (-4)|
Notable Numbers from the End of December Condo Inventory
Again, the tables above come with the usual framework for our end of month inventory. The table by price point includes all condos on Maui, but it does not include condos on the islands of Molokai or Lanai. The table with districts is limited to the communities with the most activity.
Pending sales at La’i Loa at Wailea Hills skew the data in Wailea and the $1,500,000-$5,000,000 price ranges. There are 75 pending sales in that development based on contracts penned in 2020 and the first quarter of 2021. Pending sales in La’i Loa won’t start to close until sometime in the fall of 2023. Paradise Ridge Estates in Kihei also skews the data albeit to a lesser extent. There are 18 pending sales with that development based on contracts penned between 2018 and the first quarter of 2022. Overall, 53.44% of the current pending condo inventory is in La’i Loa or Paradise Ridge Estates.
- For the third straight month, end of month inventory of active condo listings grew. It increased 5.88% from the end of November.
- Looking at the inventory by price point, there continues to be a lot of variability. While most price points saw modest changes, the inventory of $250,000-$749,999 condos decreased by a decent margin. The inventory of condos priced between $750,000 and $999,999 increased substantially. There was also a bump in inventory between $1,500,000 and $1,999,999.
- End of the month pending condo sales dropped for the third straight time. Pending sales dropped 8.43%.
- Most price ranges saw a decrease in pending sales by the end of the month. The $500,000-$749,999 price range saw the biggest drop in activity followed by the $2,000,000-$2,999,999 price point.
- At a community level, most locations saw modest changes in inventory. There were exceptions. Kihei and the Napili, Kahana and Honokowai MLS district saw pretty big increases. Ka’anapali and Wailuku both saw notable decreases in inventory.
- Most communities saw a decrease in pending sales by the end of December. Kihei saw the biggest decrease in pending sales. While Wailea’s decrease was smaller, it is notable that the vast majority of the remaining pending sales are longer term contracts at La’i Loa. Only 4 of the 79 pendings in Wailea at the end of the month were condos outside of that development.
- The West Maui communities of Ka’anapali and Lahaina were both notable for their increase in pending condo sales.
How Quickly Are Things Going Under Contract
We started tracking the percentage of properties going under contract in ten days or less all the way back in February. At the time, the market was in a frenzy and 56% of all new listings went under contract within that first ten days of coming to market. We’ve seen things slow considerably since that time. I took a look at properties that came to market between December 13th and December 20th. Of the 35 listings that came to market, 25.71% went under contract within the first ten days. That is actually up from when we last checked in November when only 15.9% of all properties went under contract.
Looking specifically at homes, 20% of the homes listed between December 13 and 20th went under contract within 10 days or less. Last year during the same period, 15.38% of new home listings went under contract in 10 days or less. In 2019, 20% of homes went under contract in 10 days or less.
Of the condos that came to market between December 13th and 20th, 30% went under contract within 10 days. For perspective, 41.51% of all condos listed between December 13-20th, 2021 went under contract in ten days or less. In 2019, 15.22% of condos listed during that same time period went under contract in 10 days or less.
My biggest takeaway from these numbers is that we are well off the frenzy of 2021 and the first quarter of 2022. Response to new listings is closer to what we had pre-Covid. Back then, quality properties priced well tended to go quickly. That continues to be the case today. Unless there is a lot of push back from the readership or we see a clear shift in market conditions, I am going to retire this metric from future musings posts.
While market activity remained slow in December, it doesn’t seem to be fazing too many sellers. As of December 31st, only 33.33% of all active listings had one or more price reduction. That is down from 37.02% on November 30th and 39.92 on October 31st. It was all the way up at 42.21% in late September.
The condo market is seeing even fewer price reductions. As of New Year’s eve, only 25.25% of all active condo listings were reduced in price one or more times. That is down slightly from 25.53% on November 30th and 29.41% on October 31st.
I surmise that low inventory and seller hopes for a seasonal increase in buyers has led more seller to stick their guns on pricing.
Quick Thoughts On the Market as We Enter Maui Peak Buying Season
Needless to say, the trajectory of the market isn’t entirely clear at the start of buyer’s season. Inventory is up from last winter, but still well below normal. Demand is lower, but it should potentially increase just due to seasonality. Affordability is down significantly from this time last year, but there is still a lot of cash in our market and rates are better than they were earlier in the fall. Add it all together and it makes prognostication a challenge. About the only thing I feel comfortable predicting is continued variability in conditions by price range and by location around the island. We will continue to provide market observations as buyer season progresses on the blog.
A Little Maui Beauty
Contact The Maui Real Estate Team
With the uncertainty in the Maui Real Estate market, quality representation is more important now then ever. Contact the Maui Real Estate Team. Our experienced agents welcome the chance to discuss your real estate needs. We look forward to being of assistance.
Maui Real Estate Blog
Maui Market Musings Volume XIII
It’s the beginning of a new month and the end of the first half of the year. Milestones like that typically call for a look back at first half of the year stats. That said, the market in the first quarter of the year is a lot different than the market now. While we intend to look at the June sales numbers in the next musings, the focus of this edition is on statistics that are more relevant to current conditions. The three main statistics reviewed in Volume XIII include inventory, price reductions and the number of properties going under contract within ten days of coming to market.
Inventory Watch for Single Family Homes
At the end of May, we started documenting end of month inventory for different communities and price points. We did it again on the last day of June. The intent is to track inventory at a more granular level than the island wide inventory statistics released by the local Realtor’s Association.
|May 31, 2022||June 30, 2022|
|$750,000-$999,999||19||54||32 (+13)||63 (+9)|
|$1,000,000-$1,499,999||43||37||58 (+15)||34 (-3)|
|$1,500,000-$1,999,999||30||27||44 (+14)||22 (-5)|
|$2,000,000-$2,999,999||37||14||34 (-3)||15 (+1)|
|$3,000,000-$4.999,999||24||11||27 (+3)||10 (-1)|
|$10,000,000-$19,999,999||9||2||13 (+4)||0 (-2)|
|Totals||193||176||241 (+48)||169 (-7)|
|May 31, 2022||June 30, 2022|
|Haiku||15||12||20 (+5)||13 (+1)|
|Hana||5||3||4 (-1)||2 (-1)|
|Ka’anapali||13||6||11 (-2)||7 (+1)|
|Kahului||11||24||8 (-3)||27 (+3)|
|Kapalua||4||2||5 (+1)||3 (+1)|
|Kihei||27||25||45 (+18)||22 (-3)|
|Kula||24||12||25 (+1)||13 (+1)|
|Makawao||11||17||13 (+2)||12 (-5)|
|Pukalani||5||12||12 (+7)||7 (-5)|
|Spreckelsville /Paia||12||4||11 (-1)||2 (-2)|
|Wailea/Makena||8||5||13 (+5)||4 (-1)|
|Wailuku||28||32||39 (+11)||33 (+1)|
End of June Home Inventory Overview
Here are a couple of quick notes about the data above to provide some framework. The price ranges cover all of Maui. They do not include the islands of Lanai or Molokai. The list of districts above is limited to those with the most activity.
- The overall trends on inventory are pretty clear with just under a 25% increase in active listings and a 4% drop in pending sales over the last month. A substantial spike in interest rates provided the backdrop for this shift in active and pending sales.
- Honing in on various price points, you can see a little more variability in the market.
- Active inventory below $750,000 remained unchanged while pending sales decreased.
- When you bump up to the $750,000-$999,999 range, inventory increases are substantial, but it is also the price range with the largest increase in pending sales activity.
- The $1,000,000-$2,000,000 range saw a significant increase in active listings with a drop in pending sales activity.
- The luxury home market experienced more modest increases in inventory and the decline in pending sales is less significant.
- The variability in numbers at a district level is a little more of a head scratcher.
- Kihei inventory grew the most with a 66% increase in active homes for sale.
- Neighboring communities saw different trajectories in inventory. Kahului’s inventory fell while the number of active homes in Wailuku grew almost 40%.
- Within the luxury markets, Wailea and Makena experienced a pretty healthy bump in inventory. Kapalua has one more active home listing while active inventory in Ka’anapali is down.
Inventory Watch for Condos
|May 31, 2022||June 30, 2022|
|<$250,000||5||9||2 (-3)||8 (-1)|
|$250,000-$499,999||12||23||19 (+7)||25 (+2)|
|$500,000-$749,999||18||55||31 (+13)||40 (-15)|
|$750,000-$999,999||29||54||44 (+15)||46 (-8)|
|$1,000,000-$1,499,999||23||49||29 (+6)||30 (-19)|
|$2,000,000-$2,999,999||19||40||20 (+1)||36 (-4)|
|$3,000,000-$4,999,999||12||22||11 (+1)||25 (+3)|
|$5,000,000-$9,999,999||7||7||11 (+4)||3 (-1)|
|Totals||149||293||199 (+50)||247 (-46)|
|May 31, 2022||June 30, 2022|
|Kahului||5||8||4 (+1)||3 (-5)|
|Kapalua||7||15||12 (+5)||9 (-6)|
|Kihei||35||95||55 (+20)||74 (-21)|
|Lahaina||14||8||16 (+2)||5 (-3)|
|Napili/Kahana/Hono…||34||39||48 (+14)||34 (-5)|
|Wailea||16||91||23 (+7)||85 (-6)|
|Wailuku||9||11||12 (+3)||12 (+1)|
End of June Maui Condo Inventory Overview
As with the home market, the price points table includes all condos on Maui, but it does not include condos on Molokai or Lanai. The table with districts is limited to the districts with the most activity. As mentioned in the last Musings, pending sales at La’i Loa at Wailea Hills skew the data in Wailea and the $1,500,000-$5,000,000 price ranges. There are 75 pending sales in that development based on contracts penned in 2020 and the first quarter of 2021. Those pending sales won’t start to close until sometime in 2023.
- The increase in condo inventory between May and June is more pronounced with a 33% jump in active condo listings. Pending condo sales dropped 16%.
- Honing in on the different price points, all price ranges with the exception of condos priced below $250,000 experienced an increase in active inventory.
- The biggest increase occurred in the $500,000 to $749,999 price range.
- On the pending sales front, all but three price ranges had a decrease. The $250,000 to $499,999 price range saw a modest increase. The number of pending condos sales stayed the same from $1,500,000 to $1,999,999. The $10,000,000 plus condo market remained unchanged with no pending listings.
- Looking at inventory from a district level, active inventory increased in all communities except for Ka’anapali.
- Ka’anapali condos are the outlier when it comes to resort condo inventory. Kapalua inventory increased 71% and Wailea inventory increased 44%. It is worth noting these increases are coming from near historic lows in inventory. That 71% increase in condo inventory in Kapalua is due to just 5 more listings.
- Other notable increases in inventory occurred in the markets that were the busiest earlier this year. Kihei active condo inventory increased 57%. Napili, Kahana and Honokowai active listings increased 41%.
As of July 4th, 34.03% of all active home listings on Maui reduced their asking price one or more times. That compares to 33% on May 24th and 29.5% on June 7th. After seeing a small dip in price reductions in early June, those numbers appear to be rising again.
For condos, 24.63% of all active condo listings reduced their price one or more time. The increase in price reductions is steady. The percentage of active listings that reduced price was 18.2% and 20.9% on May 24th and June 7th respectively.
It’s important to note that the higher number of price reductions isn’t indicative of decreasing values at this point in time. In many cases, this is sellers who priced ambitiously adjusting to the realities of a shifting market.
Market Response to New Listings
Another metric that we’ve tracked in our market musings is the percentage of new listings going under contract within 10 days. We started to track this in mid February, a time period when competition for inventory remained incredibly strong. At that time, 56% of all new listings were under contract within 10 days. As posted in Musings XI, that number dipped to 35.54% for the period between May 18th and May 25th. For the period between June 14th and June 21st, the number dropped to 25.37%.
While the number above shows a pretty significant cooling of the market, context is key. Between June 14th and June 21st of 2019, only 17.28% of all listings went under contract within the first ten days of coming to market. There are still buyers out there acting quickly when well priced properties come to market.
Takeaways for Buyers and Sellers
When interest rates spiked over 6% in early June, the hyperbolic takes on the real estate market came fast and furious. The crowing of the bubble watchers became deafening. In places like Boise and Phoenix, it looks like there may be some drastic shifts in the market. That said, what’s true for Boise may not be true for Maui. Our goal is to strip out the hype so buyers and sellers can make informed decisions.
To be clear, the Maui Market continues to cool down from the frenzied market of earlier this year. While inventory is growing, the growth in inventory started later than most markets on the mainland. We are still seeing inventory levels well below normal. While pending sales are decreasing, the percentage of properties going under contract in ten days or less is higher than during the same period of 2019. As the numbers above show, market conditions are showing variability based on location and price points. Where you are buying or selling in the market will impact your experience.
Buyers shopping in most price points will appreciate the increased inventory compared to the scarcity of earlier this year. While competition is down, well priced properties may still see bidding wars. This is particularly true at the lower priced points of the market where inventory remains truly scarce.
Prospective sellers will want to look closely at conditions specific to their price point and community when pricing their property. In those areas where inventory is growing the most and demand is shrinking, you will want to be particularly mindful of not overpricing your property. Sales will likely take longer. With buyers largely moving out of the FOMO mentality, a little give and take may be necessary to get deals done.
Some Maui Beauty to Brighten This Post
Contact The Maui Real Estate Team
Questions about the market or this post? Thinking of buying or selling? Contact The Maui Real Estate Team. We look forward to being of assistance.