Well, we made it to our twentieth Market Musings. This post took me a while to put together. I want to say it’s because it is chock full of tremendous insight. The truth is my last 9-10 days consisted primarily of battling Covid. My symptoms made writing this post a protracted slog. Give me some grace if there are typos and/or a few not so coherent thoughts interspersed throughout the text.

In our last post, I talked about the relative resilience of the Maui market under higher rates. Since that time, rates rose even more. The additional bump in rates or perhaps just a longer duration of time with higher rates is weighing on the Maui market. The single family home market in particular is feeling the burden of higher rates and decreased affordability. Musings 20 takes a look at some of the current market indicators including active and pending inventory, price reductions and how quickly new listings are going under contract.

End of October Maui Single Family Home Inventory

	8/31/22		9/31/22		10/31/22
	Active	Pending	Active	Pending	Active	Pending
<$750,000	11	11	7	14	9 (+1)	15 (+1)
$750,000-$999,999	31	44	21	46	29 (+8)	29 (-15)
$1,000,000-$1,499,999	58	28	45	33	64 (+19)	28 (-5)
$1,500,000-$1,999,999	46	13	44	17	41 (-3)	13 (-4)
$2,000,000-$2,999,999	36	12	33	12	35 (+2)	10 (-2)
$3,000,000-$4,999,999	32	11	35	11	32 (-3)	7 (-4)
$5,000,000-$9,999,999	26	5	27	6	26 (-1)	5 (-1)
$10,000,000-$19,999,999	11	0	11	0	9 (-2)	0
$20,000,000+	5	0	2	1	3 (+1)	1
Totals	256	124	225	140	248 (+23)	108 (-32)

	8/31/22		9/30/22		10/31/22
Haiku	20	7	24	7	28(+4)	9 (+2)
Hana	8	2	9	1	10 (+1)	0 (-1)
Ka’anapali	10	4	10	3	7 (-3)	2 (-1)
Kahului	11	25	7	26	16 (+9)	16 (-10)
Kapalua	4	1	4	0	6 (+2)	0
Kihei	44	16	35	16	40 (+5)	11 (-5)
Kula	24	10	22	11	20 (-2)	11
Lahaina	23	7	21	10	22 (+1)	13 (+3)
Makawao	15	11	13	11	13	9(-2)
Napili/Kahana/Hono…	14	4	9	7	11 (+2)	6 (-1)
Pukalani	8	5	6	7	8 (+2)	3 (-4)
Spreckelsville/Paia	15	3	10	4	8 (-2)	2 (-2)
Wailea/Makena	16	4	10	8	11 (+1)	4 (-4)
Wailuku	41	22	36	26	40 (+4)	21 (-5)

End of October Home Inventory Review

The information above is provided with the usual framework. The home inventory data by price point includes all of the island of Maui, but excludes the islands of Molokai and Lanai. The district information is limited to the districts and community with the most activity.

• After a pretty healthy drop in Inventory in September, active home listings increased by 10.22% by the end of October.
• The bulk of the inventory increased occurred between $750,00 and $1,500,000 with an increase of 27 listings in that range.
• It appears that this increase in inventory stems more from slower activity than an influx of new listings. That is reflected in the pending sales data with 20 fewer pending home sales between $750,000 and $1,500,000.
• This make sense as this is an area of the market where a higher percentage of buyers are using financing. Looking at all of the sales between August 1 and October 30th, 18.93% of the buyers in this price range paid cash. In all other price ranges, 41.77% of buyers used cash. Plain and simple, the increase in mortgage rates is hitting this segment of the market harder.
• Overall, the number of pending home sales decreased 22.86% between the end of September and the end of October. That is a substantial decrease, but worth noting that pending sales typically decline in the fall.
• Looking at the market on a community level, all but three districts increased inventory. The exceptions being Kula, Spreckelsville/Paia and Ka’anapali. Ka’anapali’s decrease stemmed in part due to cancelled listings rather than increased sales.
• Kahului experienced the biggest increase in active listings and the biggest decrease in pending sales. With the vast majority of the inventory in this community priced between $750,000 and $1,300,000, this is a market where the increased rates appear to causing a bigger shift in conditions.

End of October Condo Inventory

	8/31/22		9/30/22		10/31/22
	Active	Pending	Active	Pending	Active	Pending
<$250,000	1	6	1	3	2 (+1)	4 (+1)
$250,000-$499,999	14	17	11	16	19 (+8)	12 (-4)
$500,000-$749,999	34	43	28	40	32 (+4)	35 (-5)
$750,000-$999,999	33	43	33	33	27 (-6)	27 (-6)
$1,000,000-$1,499,999	29	31	19	36	21 (+2)	30 (-6)
$1,500,000-$1,999,999	24	35	18	34	14 (-4)	33 (-1)
$2,000,000-$2,999,999	22	38	14	43	15 (+1)	40 (-3)
$3,000,000-$4,999,999	12	19	10	17	10	17
$5,000,000-$9,999,999	8	1	7	0	11 (+4)	1 (+1)
$10,000,000+	4	0	4	0	3 (-1)	1 (+1)
Total	181	233	145	222	154 (+9)	200 (-22)

	8/31/22		9/30/22		10/31/22
	Active	Pending	Active	Pending	Active	Pending
Ka’anapali	25	16	17	14	18 (+1)	9 (-5)
Kahului	3	7	3	4	5 (+2)	5 (+1)
Kapalua	11	6	10	4	12 (+2)	4
Kihei	50	63	48	61	43 (-5)	60 (-1)
Lahaina	9	10	5	7	8 (+3)	4 (-3)
Ma’alaea	3	6	4	4	3 (-1)	6 (+2)
Napili/Kahana/Hono…	45	25	29	30	33 (+4)	17 (-13)
Wailea	24	86	19	86	19	85 (-1)
Wailuku	9	14	8	12	11 (+3)	10 (-2)

End of October Condo Inventory Review

Again, the tables above come with the usual framework for our end of month inventory. The table by price point includes all condos on Maui, but it does not include condos on the islands of Molokai or Lanai. The table with districts is limited to the communities with the most activity.

Pending sales at La’i Loa at Wailea Hills skew the data in Wailea and the $1,500,000-$5,000,000 price ranges. There are 75 pending sales in that development based on contracts penned in 2020 and the first quarter of 2021. Pending sales in La’i Loa won’t start to close until sometime in 2023. Paradise Ridge Estates in Kihei also skews the data albeit to a lesser extent. There are 18 pending sales with that development based on contracts penned between 2018 and the first quarter of 2022. Overall, 46.5% of the pending Condo inventory is in La’i Loa or Paradise Ridge Estates.

• After three straight months of decreased inventory, condo inventory increased by a modest 6.2%
• The largest increase in inventory occurred in the $250,000 to $499,999 price range. While this price range has a lower percentage of cash buyers than the overall condo market, the difference isn’t all that substantial.
• Active inventory increased in 6 out of 10 price ranges, decreased in three and stayed the same in one.
• Pending sales decreased 9.91% this month. As with home sales, it isn’t too uncommon to see pending sales decrease this time of year.
• The decrease in pending condo sales by price point was fairly consistent through most ranges, with the exceptions being the very lowest price range and the very highest price points in the market.
• At the community level, modest increases in inventory were common across the board. The two districts that actually saw a decrease in inventory at the community level were Ma’alaea and Kihei. Both are markets with a lot of vacation rentals. This is a market segment that is still seeing decent demand.
• Napili, Kahana and Honokowai experienced the biggest drop in pending sales. This is another big vacation rental condo market. Is the difference in activity levels a case of no clear narrative or just variability? This is something to watch with next month’s numbers.

How Quickly Are Properties Going Under Contract

One other metric we use on the blog to track market demand is how quickly properties are going under contract. Specifically, what percentage of new listings are going under contract in ten days or less. The very first time we started documenting this metric was back in February. At that point, 56% of all new listings went under contract within 10 days or less. Between September 12th and 19th, that number shrank to 34%. Between October 11th-18th, the number of properties that went under contract within 10 days or less fell further to 25.58%.

When you break it down by homes and condos, you can see that condos continue to show some measure of resilience. For condos listed between October 11th and 18th, 40% went under contract with buyers in ten days or less. That’s actually up from mid September when the number was 36.66%. For additional context, 66.67% of condos went under contract in 10 days or less between October 11th and 18th, 2021. Going back to 2019, 26% of all condos listed between October 11th and 18th went under contract in 10 days or less.

The numbers for the home market point to a more pronounced cooling. Only 13.04% of all homes listed between October 11th and 18th went under contract in 10 days or less. In mid-September, that number was 32.14%. For additional context, 54.17% of homes listed between October 11th and October 18th, 2021 went under contract in tend days or less. Going back to 2019, 9.09% of all homes listed between October 11th and October 18th, went under contract in ten days or less.

Price Reductions

One market indicator that surprised this month is the number of active listings with price reductions. Nationally, price reductions continue to rise as the real estate market slows under the weight of higher interest rates. Based on the numbers above, one might expect to see more price reductions, particularly with the home market. With fewer properties going under contract quickly and fewer properties going under contract in general, shouldn’t sellers be adjusting to the market?

As of the the 31st, 90 of 248 active home listings or 39.92% reduced their price one or more times. On September 29th, 42.41% of homes went under contract in 10 days or less. On September 2nd, 42.97% of all active listings had one or more price reduction.

On the condo front, 45 of 153 or 29.41% of active condo listings on October 31, 2022 reduced their price one or more times. That’s up from 25% on September 29th. On September 2nd, 27.84% of all active condo listings had price reductions.

Some General Thoughts on the Numbers Above and The State of The Market

It’s been an interesting last six months in the Maui Real Estate market. The first quarter of the year was largely a continuation of 2021. Strong demand combined with limited inventory to fuel strong price growth. Demand slowly started to taper in the second quarter. That said, inventory remained low. While the frenzy of the first quarter subsided, there was a balance between limited supply and just enough demand to make for a competitive market for buyers. While we were well below the frenzy of earlier in the year, homes and condos in particular sold faster and at a higher percentage of asking price than they would in a normal market.

This trend of a balanced ratio between buyers and sellers continued through the summer. Inventory actually contracted through most of the summer, but we lost FOMO (fear of missing out) buyers from the market. The lack of FOMO buyers had an impact. We started to see some downward pressure on values in limited parts of the market. With a discerning buyer pool, flawed properties that would have sold easily in the first quarter weren’t getting any love from buyers.

In my last musings, I showed stats that pointed to the relative resilience of this market despite rates well over 6%. The stats above point to a further shift downward in the market . Or at least two out of three did. The third is a reflection of Maui as a real estate market as a whole.

The increase in inventory and the decrease in pendings show a market where the balance in supply and demand is starting to shift. This is less due to an influx of new inventory as much as it is to decreased demand. When you look at the number of homes going under contract within 10 days or less, you can see where the push above 7% rates is starting to decrease the number of buyers. I am sure the more negative national real estate news is also having an impact on the buying decisions of some. Fomo has been replaced by wait and see.

The decrease in price reductions is the one anomaly in this market. As the market cools, you would expect sellers to adjust. Prior to Covid, Maui’s market dynamics were different than the typical mainland market. Sellers took time to adjust prices and days on market could really pile up before a listing was considered stale. It’s also worth remembering that this shift is pretty recent. We may need to see these conditions persist for a longer before more sellers begin to adjust prices.

The one other thing to note is that while we saw a shift in market conditions in these most recent stats, conditions remain variable. That’s pretty clear when we look at the difference between homes and condos. As of mid-October, new condo listings still went under contract much faster than they did pre-Covid. Condo inventory remains tight compared to demand and the volume of cash buyers blunts the impact of higher rates.There is variability in the home market too. The luxury market, which again includes a higher percentage of cash buyers, appears to be moving relatively well.

Looking forward, it will be interesting to see where the market goes from here. Since it’s taken me longer to write this blog post, I have the advantage of watching market conditions over the first ten days of November. While I haven’t crunched the numbers in any detail, pending sales stabilized to start the month. Yesterday’s inflation print out caused a shift in the bond market and mortgage rates to drop a half a point.Will that persist or will higher rates return? Needless to say, it’s too early tell. If anything, this points to continued weird market dynamics with a lot of variability in conditions.

A Little Maui Beauty to Brighten Your Day

It may not be Monday but…

It's Monday- we're mentally here. Via @HIOceanProject pic.twitter.com/gzQN8hpHwr

— Maui Hawaii (@Maui) November 7, 2022

Contact The Maui Real Estate Team

Variable market conditions and general market weirdness demand quality representation. Contact the Maui Real Estate Team to talk to one of our experienced agents if you are thinking of buying or selling Maui Real Estate. One of our healthy agents will be happy to learn more about your real estate needs. We look forward to being of assistance.

It’s the beginning of a new month and the end of the first half of the year. Milestones like that typically call for a look back at first half of the year stats. That said, the market in the first quarter of the year is a lot different than the market now. While we intend to look at the June sales numbers in the next musings, the focus of this edition is on statistics that are more relevant to current conditions. The three main statistics reviewed in Volume XIII include inventory, price reductions and the number of properties going under contract within ten days of coming to market.

Inventory Watch for Single Family Homes

At the end of May, we started documenting end of month inventory for different communities and price points. We did it again on the last day of June. The intent is to track inventory at a more granular level than the island wide inventory statistics released by the local Realtor’s Association.

	May 31, 2022		June 30, 2022
	Active	Pending	Active	Pending
<$750,000	6	22	6	16 (-6)
$750,000-$999,999	19	54	32 (+13)	63 (+9)
$1,000,000-$1,499,999	43	37	58 (+15)	34 (-3)
$1,500,000-$1,999,999	30	27	44 (+14)	22 (-5)
$2,000,000-$2,999,999	37	14	34 (-3)	15 (+1)
$3,000,000-$4.999,999	24	11	27 (+3)	10 (-1)
$5,000,000-$9,999,999	22	8	23 (+1)	8
$10,000,000-$19,999,999	9	2	13 (+4)	0 (-2)
$20,000,000+	3	1	4 (+1)	1
Totals	193	176	241 (+48)	169 (-7)

	May 31, 2022		June 30, 2022
	Active	Pending	Active	Pending
Haiku	15	12	20 (+5)	13 (+1)
Hana	5	3	4 (-1)	2 (-1)
Ka’anapali	13	6	11 (-2)	7 (+1)
Kahului	11	24	8 (-3)	27 (+3)
Kapalua	4	2	5 (+1)	3 (+1)
Kihei	27	25	45 (+18)	22 (-3)
Kula	24	12	25 (+1)	13 (+1)
Lahaina	15	15	20 (+5)	18(+3)
Makawao	11	17	13 (+2)	12 (-5)
Napili/Kahana/Hono…	12	5	12	3 (-2)
Pukalani	5	12	12 (+7)	7 (-5)
Spreckelsville /Paia	12	4	11 (-1)	2 (-2)
Wailea/Makena	8	5	13 (+5)	4 (-1)
Wailuku	28	32	39 (+11)	33 (+1)

End of June Home Inventory Overview

Here are a couple of quick notes about the data above to provide some framework. The price ranges cover all of Maui. They do not include the islands of Lanai or Molokai. The list of districts above is limited to those with the most activity.

• The overall trends on inventory are pretty clear with just under a 25% increase in active listings and a 4% drop in pending sales over the last month. A substantial spike in interest rates provided the backdrop for this shift in active and pending sales.
• Honing in on various price points, you can see a little more variability in the market.
• Active inventory below $750,000 remained unchanged while pending sales decreased.
• When you bump up to the $750,000-$999,999 range, inventory increases are substantial, but it is also the price range with the largest increase in pending sales activity.
• The $1,000,000-$2,000,000 range saw a significant increase in active listings with a drop in pending sales activity.
• The luxury home market experienced more modest increases in inventory and the decline in pending sales is less significant.
• The variability in numbers at a district level is a little more of a head scratcher.
• Kihei inventory grew the most with a 66% increase in active homes for sale.
• Neighboring communities saw different trajectories in inventory. Kahului’s inventory fell while the number of active homes in Wailuku grew almost 40%.
• Within the luxury markets, Wailea and Makena experienced a pretty healthy bump in inventory. Kapalua has one more active home listing while active inventory in Ka’anapali is down.

Inventory Watch for Condos

	May 31, 2022		June 30, 2022
	Active	Pending	Active	Pending
<$250,000	5	9	2 (-3)	8 (-1)
$250,000-$499,999	12	23	19 (+7)	25 (+2)
$500,000-$749,999	18	55	31 (+13)	40 (-15)
$750,000-$999,999	29	54	44 (+15)	46 (-8)
$1,000,000-$1,499,999	23	49	29 (+6)	30 (-19)
$1,500,000-$1,999,999	21	34	28 (+7)	34
$2,000,000-$2,999,999	19	40	20 (+1)	36 (-4)
$3,000,000-$4,999,999	12	22	11 (+1)	25 (+3)
$5,000,000-$9,999,999	7	7	11 (+4)	3 (-1)
$10,000,000+	3	0	4 (+1)	0
Totals	149	293	199 (+50)	247 (-46)

	May 31, 2022		June 30, 2022
	Active	Pending	Active	Pending
Ka’anapali	23	23	23	15 (-8)
Kahului	5	8	4 (+1)	3 (-5)
Kapalua	7	15	12 (+5)	9 (-6)
Kihei	35	95	55 (+20)	74 (-21)
Lahaina	14	8	16 (+2)	5 (-3)
Maalaea	3	5	5 (+2)	5
Napili/Kahana/Hono…	34	39	48 (+14)	34 (-5)
Wailea	16	91	23 (+7)	85 (-6)
Wailuku	9	11	12 (+3)	12 (+1)

End of June Maui Condo Inventory Overview

As with the home market, the price points table includes all condos on Maui, but it does not include condos on Molokai or Lanai. The table with districts is limited to the districts with the most activity. As mentioned in the last Musings, pending sales at La’i Loa at Wailea Hills skew the data in Wailea and the $1,500,000-$5,000,000 price ranges. There are 75 pending sales in that development based on contracts penned in 2020 and the first quarter of 2021. Those pending sales won’t start to close until sometime in 2023.

• The increase in condo inventory between May and June is more pronounced with a 33% jump in active condo listings. Pending condo sales dropped 16%.
• Honing in on the different price points, all price ranges with the exception of condos priced below $250,000 experienced an increase in active inventory.
• The biggest increase occurred in the $500,000 to $749,999 price range.
• On the pending sales front, all but three price ranges had a decrease. The $250,000 to $499,999 price range saw a modest increase. The number of pending condos sales stayed the same from $1,500,000 to $1,999,999. The $10,000,000 plus condo market remained unchanged with no pending listings.
• Looking at inventory from a district level, active inventory increased in all communities except for Ka’anapali.
• Ka’anapali condos are the outlier when it comes to resort condo inventory. Kapalua inventory increased 71% and Wailea inventory increased 44%. It is worth noting these increases are coming from near historic lows in inventory. That 71% increase in condo inventory in Kapalua is due to just 5 more listings.
• Other notable increases in inventory occurred in the markets that were the busiest earlier this year. Kihei active condo inventory increased 57%. Napili, Kahana and Honokowai active listings increased 41%.

Price Reductions

As of July 4th, 34.03% of all active home listings on Maui reduced their asking price one or more times. That compares to 33% on May 24th and 29.5% on June 7th. After seeing a small dip in price reductions in early June, those numbers appear to be rising again.

For condos, 24.63% of all active condo listings reduced their price one or more time. The increase in price reductions is steady. The percentage of active listings that reduced price was 18.2% and 20.9% on May 24th and June 7th respectively.

It’s important to note that the higher number of price reductions isn’t indicative of decreasing values at this point in time. In many cases, this is sellers who priced ambitiously adjusting to the realities of a shifting market.

Market Response to New Listings

Another metric that we’ve tracked in our market musings is the percentage of new listings going under contract within 10 days. We started to track this in mid February, a time period when competition for inventory remained incredibly strong. At that time, 56% of all new listings were under contract within 10 days. As posted in Musings XI, that number dipped to 35.54% for the period between May 18th and May 25th. For the period between June 14th and June 21st, the number dropped to 25.37%.

While the number above shows a pretty significant cooling of the market, context is key. Between June 14th and June 21st of 2019, only 17.28% of all listings went under contract within the first ten days of coming to market. There are still buyers out there acting quickly when well priced properties come to market.

Takeaways for Buyers and Sellers

When interest rates spiked over 6% in early June, the hyperbolic takes on the real estate market came fast and furious. The crowing of the bubble watchers became deafening. In places like Boise and Phoenix, it looks like there may be some drastic shifts in the market. That said, what’s true for Boise may not be true for Maui. Our goal is to strip out the hype so buyers and sellers can make informed decisions.

To be clear, the Maui Market continues to cool down from the frenzied market of earlier this year. While inventory is growing, the growth in inventory started later than most markets on the mainland. We are still seeing inventory levels well below normal. While pending sales are decreasing, the percentage of properties going under contract in ten days or less is higher than during the same period of 2019. As the numbers above show, market conditions are showing variability based on location and price points. Where you are buying or selling in the market will impact your experience.

Buyers shopping in most price points will appreciate the increased inventory compared to the scarcity of earlier this year. While competition is down, well priced properties may still see bidding wars. This is particularly true at the lower priced points of the market where inventory remains truly scarce.

Prospective sellers will want to look closely at conditions specific to their price point and community when pricing their property. In those areas where inventory is growing the most and demand is shrinking, you will want to be particularly mindful of not overpricing your property. Sales will likely take longer. With buyers largely moving out of the FOMO mentality, a little give and take may be necessary to get deals done.

Some Maui Beauty to Brighten This Post

Where our head is at after a three day weekend.🏖️ pic.twitter.com/YAHBectRfH

— HAWAI'I Magazine (@HAWAIIMagazine) July 5, 2022

Contact The Maui Real Estate Team

Questions about the market or this post? Thinking of buying or selling? Contact The Maui Real Estate Team. We look forward to being of assistance.

The latest edition of Maui Real Estate Musings is coming from the road. While I may be on the mainland, I still have an eye and ear on the Maui Real Estate Market. Volume XII addresses the elephant in the room from last week’s real estate news. As promised in Musings XI, there is also a review of end of May inventory numbers by district and price point. Finally, we take a quick look at the percentage of active home and condo inventory with price reductions. Without further ado, and so I can get back to hanging out with the in-laws, here is musings volume XII.

The Elephant in The Room

The elephant in the room of course is interest rates. Interest rates on the 30 year fixed mortgage spiked to over 6.2 percent last week. Stronger than expected inflation numbers for May and the resulting anticipation of sharper increases in the Federal Funds rate fueled a strong spike in mortgage rates. This is a significant difference in borrowing costs from interest rates below 3% a year ago.

Record appreciation coupled with 6% rates means the typical new mortgage payment has spiked 52% over the past 6 months.

data via @AliWolfEcon pic.twitter.com/Qq9jVxDige

— Lance Lambert (@NewsLambert) June 15, 2022

Prior rate increases this year pushed some buyers out of the market. Needless to say, it is likely that this recent rate increase will further thin the pool of financed buyers. Those that do stay in the market, will be able to afford less home. It is possible that we see a brief uptick in activity in the market as buyers who locked in lower rates feel heightened urgency to purchase. Conversely, the shift in rates may cause a more immediate slow down in demand. We shall see how it plays out.

Of course, the smaller pool of buyers and less purchasing power from financed buyers will cause other impacts to the market. Lesser demand will likely lead to growing inventory. Keep in mind, we are still experiencing inventory numbers well below normal. How quickly and how much inventory grows is something of an unknown. The other thing we are likely to see is price reductions. A lot of sellers on the market initially entered the market at prices that assumed continued rapid appreciation. With less demand and less competition, many sellers will need to adjust expectations and pricing.

End of May Inventory Levels

The Realtors Association of Maui tracks end of month inventory levels island wide for homes and condos. We report on those numbers regularly. I took it a step further documenting inventory levels by district and price point on the island. The numbers are meant to serve as a baseline for future comparisons. It is a means to track changes in inventory among different market segments. That said, there is some interesting information to be gleaned from just the May numbers. They show some of the recent variability in inventory levels and market conditions based on both geography and price point.

End of May Home Inventory

	Active	Pending
Haiku	15	12
Hana	5	3
Ka’anapali	13	6
Kahului	11	24
Kapalua	4	2
Kihei	27	25
Kula	24	12
Lahaina	15	15
Makawao	11	17
Napili/Kahana…	12	5
Pukalani	5	12
Sprecks/Paia	12	4
Wailea	8	5
Wailuku	28	32

End of May Home Inventory by Price Point

	Active	Pending
<$750,000	6	22
$750,000-$999,999	19	54
$1,000,000-$1,499,999	43	37
$1,500,000-$1,999,999	30	27
$2,000,000-$3,000,000	37	14
$3,000,000-$4,999,999	24	11
$5,000,000-$9,999,999	22	8
$10,000,000-$19,999,999	9	2
$20,000,000+	3	1

End of May Home Inventory Takeaways

• Kahului has the lowest ratio of active listings to pending listings with 11 active listings compared to 24 pendings.
• Kula and Paia have the highest ratio of active home listings to pending sales.
• The ratio of pending sales to active sales is higher in districts with more lower priced options and less second home activity. There is stronger demand and more competition for lower priced primary residences.
• The ratio of pending listings to active listings by price point corroborates the point above. The number of active listings is a small fraction of the pending listings below $1,000,000. There are no homes in the resort markets below $1,000,000.
• With the exception of the $1,500,000 to $1,999,999 range, the higher you go in price point, the the ratio of active listings to pending sales increases.
• While the resort communities have more active listings than pending sales, the inventory in these communities remains limited.
• The same can be said for higher price points. With the exception of the highest price points, inventory is still well below normal in the $2,000,000 to $5,000,000 range.

End of May Condo Inventory by District

	Active	Pending
Ka’anapali	23	23
Kahului	5	8
Kapalua	7	15
Kihei	35	95
Lahaina	14	8
Ma’alaea	3	5
Napili/Kahana/Honokowai	34	39
Pukalani	0	0
Wailea	16	91
Wailuku	9	11

End of May Condo Inventory by Price Point

	Active	Pending
<$250,000	5	9
$250,000-$499,999	12	23
$500,000-$749,999	18	55
$750,000-$999,999	29	54
$1,000,000-$1,499,999	23	49
$1,500,000-$1,999,999	21	34
$2,000,000-$2,999,999	19	40
$3,000,000-$4,999,999	12	22
$5,000,000-$9,999,999	7	7
$10,000,000+	3	0

End of May Condo Inventory Takeaways

• First things first, there is an important thing to note in the pending condo numbers. They include 75 pending sales in La’i Loa at Wailea Hills. This development is under construction and the bulk of the contracts were signed in the second half of 2020 and the first quarter of 2021. These pending sales skew the numbers for Wailea and the price points between $1,500,000 and $4,999,999.
• The Kihei Condo market numbers reflect its frenzied state over the last 12 months. This includes both vacation rental and non-vacation rental properties. Supply appears to be well below demand.
• The price points between $500,000 and $1,500,000 have the highest ratio of pending sales to active listings.
• The $5,000,000 to $9,000,000 range shows a lot less active inventory vs recent demand compared to the single family homes in this range.
• Lahaina is notable as the only district with more active condo listings than pending listings.
• Overall, the condo market inventory numbers reflect more scarcity and higher activity across the board than the home market.

A Few Final Thoughts on the Inventory Numbers

This data is lagging behind a few weeks at this point. I will be posting the numbers for the end of this month shortly after the first of July. I suspect we will see increases in inventory across a number of districts and price points. Another “flaw” to this analysis is that it lacks a baseline of comparison to historical numbers. Unfortunately, old Realtors Association of Maui statistics track monthly sales and not active inventory. I wish we had a “normal” number for districts and price points. I am going to need to rely on anecdotal observations as to what seems normal for active listings.

Price Reductions

I did want to look at one statistics that gives more of a current look at market conditions. Price reductions give us some sense of demand and how sellers are currently responding to shifts in demand. As of June 22nd, 32.4% of active home listings reduced their price. That is up from 29.5% on June 7th. It is still a little below May 24th when 33% of all active home listings reduced below listing price. For condos, 22.5% of the active inventory reduced their price as of June 22nd. That is up from June 7th and May 24th when 20.9% and 18.2% of the active inventory reduced prices respectively.

Some Maui Beauty To Brighten Your Day

This week’s beautiful Maui tweet comes with a bonus link to an article on South Maui Summer Activities.

We love summer on Maui’s lively South Shore.⛱️https://t.co/GC0z076xk1 #Hawaii #Maui #Kihei #Travel #HawaiiTravel #TravelTips pic.twitter.com/wx9cmjILrT

— HAWAI'I Magazine (@HAWAIIMagazine) June 13, 2022

Wrapping Things Up

It’s clear that market conditions are changing. A few quick final thoughts for sellers and buyers. Sellers, it is pretty clear the market is a lot different than it was 6 months or even 3 months ago. If your list prices were aspirational, price adjustments may be necessary to get in line with the market. Less competition means less leverage when it comes to negotiations. For buyers, the reverse is true and you may start to have an opportunity to negotiate. There is more opportunity for due diligence and there may be some more choice available to you. The trade off for financed buyers is more purchasing power.

With changing market conditions, quality representation remains as important as ever. Contact The Maui Real Estate Team to discuss your real estate needs. We look forward to being of assistance.