It’s that time again. This is the twenty-first edition of the Maui Market Musings. Our weekly, biweekly, monthly update on the Maui Real Estate market. The latest edition looks at active and pending inventory, price reductions and demand for new listings. There are plenty of words down below, so I will spare you from any more up here…

End of November Maui Home Inventory

	9/30/22		10/31/22		11/30/22
	Active	Pending	Active	Pending	Active	Pending
<$750,000	7	14	9	15	5 (-4)	14 (-1)
$750,000-$999,999	21	46	29	29	31 (+2)	25 (-4)
$1,000,000-$1,499,999	45	33	64	28	61 (-3)	28
$1,500,000-$1,999,999	44	17	41	13	28 (-13)	17 (+4)
$2,000,000-$2,999,999	33	12	35	10	34 (-1)	11 (+1)
$3,000,000-$4,999,999	35	11	32	7	32	7
$5,000,000-$9,999,999	27	6	26	5	23 (-3)	9 (+4)
$10,000,000-$19,999,999	11	0	9	0	14 (+5)	0
$20,000,000+	2	1	3	1	5 (+2)	1
Total	225	140	248	108	233 (-15)	112(+4)

	9/30/22		10/31/22		11/30/22
	Active	Pending	Active	Pending	Active	Pending
Haiku	24	7	28	9	29 (+1)	10 (+1)
Hana	9	1	10	0	10	0
Ka’anapali	10	3	7	2	9 (+2)	2
Kahului	7	26	16	16	16	13 (-3)
Kapalua	4	0	6	0	5 (+1)	3 (+3)
Kihei	35	16	40	11	31 (-9)	15 (+4)
Kula	22	11	20	11	22 (+2)	12 (+1)
Lahaina	21	10	22	13	15 (-7)	13
Makawao	13	11	13	9	11 (-2)	7 (-2)
Napili/Kahana/Hono…	9	7	11	6	9 (-2)	3 (-3)
Puklanai	6	7	8	3	10 (+2)	3
Sprecks/Paia	10	4	8	2	7 (-1)	3 (+1)
Wailea	10	8	11	4	16 (+5)	4
Wailuku	36	26	40	21	32 (-8)	19 (-2)

Notable Numbers from the End of November Maui Home Inventory

The information above is provided with the usual framework. The home inventory data by price point includes all of the island of Maui, but excludes the islands of Molokai and Lanai. The district information is limited to the districts and communities with the most activity.

• After an increase in inventory in October, Maui home inventories decreased again in November. Active listings dropped 6.1%.
• Looking at the the active inventory by price point shows a mix of trajectories. While most price ranges decreased, the continued increase between $750,000 and $999,999 is notable. This is a part of the market with more financed buyers. Those buyers are feeling the affordability impact of higher rates. The $10,000,000 plus price range is not known for financed buyers. That said, it also saw an increase.
• Pending sales actually increased between the end of October and the end of November. While the increase was a modest 3.7%, the increase in activity comes as somewhat of a surprise considering both rates and the more significant decrease between late September and late October.
• Broken down by price point, the picture is more mixed. Again, fewer properties went under contract in that $750,000-$999,999 price range. Pending sales increased in the $1,500,000 to $3,000,000 range. The biggest percentage increase in pending sales was in the $5,000,000 to $9,999,999 price range.
• At a community level, inventory trends were all over the place. Kihei, Lahaina and Wailuku all experienced notable decreases in inventory. Most other markets experienced modest changes with increases or decreases of a couple of homes. The Wailea active inventory increased the most month to month.
• There was also a lot of variability in the end of month change in pending sales by community. Pending sales increased in five communities, remained unchanged in five districts, and decreased in four. Kapalua and Kihei saw the biggest increase in pendings. Kahului and the Napili, Kahana, Honokowai area decreased the most.

End of November Maui Condo Inventory

	9/30/22		10/31/22		11/30/22
	Active	Pending	Active	Pending	Active	Pending
<$250,000	1	3	2	4	1 (-1)	4
$250,000-$499,999	11	16	19	12	19	14 (+2)
$500,000-$749,999	28	40	32	35	43 (+11)	33 (-2)
$750,000-$999,999	33	33	27	27	28 (+1)	29 (+2)
$1,000,000-$1,499,999	19	36	21	30	31 (+10)	24 (-6)
$1,500,000-$1,999,000	18	34	14	33	21 (+7)	28 (-5)
$2,000,000-$2,999,999	14	43	15	40	18 (+3)	39 (-1)
$3,000,000-$5,000,000	10	17	10	17	11 (+1)	17
$5,000,000-$9,999,999	7	0	11	1	12 (+1)	2 (+1)
$10,000,000+	4	0	3	1	3	0
Total	145	222	154	200	187 (+33)	190 (-10)

	9/30/22		10/31/22		11/30/22
	Active	Pending	Active	Pending	Active	Pending
Ka’anapali	17	14	18	9	25 (+7)	4 (-5)
Kahului	3	4	5	5	5	5
Kapalua	10	4	12	4	14 (+2)	2 (-2)
Kihei	48	61	43	60	53 (+10)	51 (-9)
Lahania	5	7	8	4	14 (+6)	8 (+4)
Ma’alaea	4	4	3	6	4 (+1)	8 (+2)
Napili/Kahana/Hono…	29	30	33	17	39 (+6)	19 (+2)
Wailea	19	86	19	85	23 (+4)	85
Wailuku	8	12	11	10	8 (-3)	8 (-2)

Notable Numbers from the End of November Maui Condo Inventory

Again, the tables above come with the usual framework for our end of month inventory. The table by price point includes all condos on Maui, but it does not include condos on the islands of Molokai or Lanai. The table with districts is limited to the communities with the most activity.

Pending sales at La’i Loa at Wailea Hills skew the data in Wailea and the $1,500,000-$5,000,000 price ranges. There are 75 pending sales in that development based on contracts penned in 2020 and the first quarter of 2021. Pending sales in La’i Loa won’t start to close until sometime in 2023. Paradise Ridge Estates in Kihei also skews the data albeit to a lesser extent. There are 18 pending sales with that development based on contracts penned between 2018 and the first quarter of 2022. Overall, 49.73% of the pending condo inventory is in La’i Loa or Paradise Ridge Estates.

• End of month condo inventory increased for the second straight month. Active inventory grew by 21.42%.
• Seven out of ten price ranges increased inventory between the end of October and the end of November. Two price ranges remained constant and only condos priced below $250,000 decreased in active inventory.
• The largest increases in active inventory occurred between $500,000-$749,999 and $1,000,000 to $1,999,999.
• Pending sales dipped 5% between the end of October and the end of November. Pendings in four price points decreased, increased in three and remained unchanged in three.
• The biggest decrease in pending sales occurred between $1,000,000 and $1,999,999.
• Active inventory increased in all but two communities. Only Wailuku saw a decrease while Kahului inventory remained unchanged. Kihei increased the most by the number of units and Lahaina increased the most by percentage.
• Pending sales increased the most in Lahaina. Kihei pending sales decreased the most.

Pending Sales vs. New Listings

With the shift in active and pending sales, it is worth taking a look at what’s driving inventory levels. How did November stack up against other years for new listings and new pending sales?

	11/2022	11/2021	11/2019	11/2018	11/2017
Homes	79	114	125	147	140
Condos	109	187	208	153	193

Looking at new inventory in November, you can see that we are well below last year. For homes, there were just over 30% fewer listings than last November. More notably, last month’s new inventory was anywhere between 39% and 46% less than what came to market in November of 2017-2019. The decrease in new condo inventory entering the market in November is even more pronounced. There were roughly 42% less condo listings last month compared to November 2021. New inventory came in anywhere between 53% and 56% lower than Novembers 2017 and 2019. The one outlier being November of 2018. Even that year had 40% more new listings than this year.

	11/2022	11/2021	11/2019	11/2018	11/2017
Homes	63	95	90	80	83
Condos	69	180	147	110	125

While inventory remains low, the number of properties going under contract decreased significantly from last November and the Pre-Covid Novembers Prior. New pending home sales this November are almost 34% lower than last November. They are down between 21 and 30% compared to the Novembers between 2017 and 2019. Again, the difference in the condo market is a little more dramatic. New Pending sales from November 22 are almost 62% less than November of 21. This November’s new pending sales are between 37% and 53% lower than November 2017-2019.

Looking at the numbers above, inventory clearly remains low. Pending sales are also down quite a bit. While some of the decrease in pending sales may be attributed to the limited inventory, decreased demand is the bigger driver for the decrease in activity. The weight of decreased affordability impacts a number of buyers.

How Quickly Are Things Going Under Contract?

Another metric we use to track the market is the speed at which properties are going under contract. Specifically, what percentage of new listings are going under contract in 10 days or less. We started tracking that number in mid February during the peak of last winter’s frenzy. At the time, 56% of all new listings went under contract in ten days or less. Prior to this post, the last time I checked this metric was for the period between October 11th and October 18th. At that time, 25.58% of properties listed during that span went under contract in ten days or less. Between November 21st and November 28th, 15.9% of all properties went into escrow within that ten day span.

Of the single family homes that came to market between November 21st and November 28th, 13.64% went under contract in ten days or less. For context, 36% of homes listed between November 21st and November 28th, 2021 went under contract in ten days or less. Of the homes listed between November 21 and November 28th, 2018, only 4.17% of the properties went under contract in ten days or less.

Of the condos listed between November 21st and November 28th, 18.18% sold in 10 days or less. Last year, 43.24% of condos listed in that period sold for 10 days or less. Pre-covid, 29.26% of condos listed between November 21st and November 28th sold in ten days or less.

Overall, this is the most tepid response new listings received since we started tracking this data point. While the slower market activity could be a function of the Thanksgiving Holiday, the 2021 and 2019 numbers both remained busy despite Thanksgiving.

Price Reductions

A lot of sellers don’t seem to be fretting the smaller numbers of buyers on the market. That is evident in the recent numbers on price reductions in the active inventory. On November 30th, 37.02% of all active home listings reduced their price one or more times. That is down from 39.92% on October 31st and 42.41% on September 29th. While the percentage of homes with price reductions started to tick down nationally in the last couple of weeks of November, the percentage of price reductions started declining in early September on Maui.

On November 30th, 23.53% of all active condo listings reduced their price at least once since being listed. That number was 29.41% on October 31st. It was 25% on September 29th. It’s interesting to see that price reductions are down considering the decreased condo sales activity over the last month. Low inventory and the start of peak winter home buying season at the end of the month is emboldening sellers.

Quick Thoughts on the State of the market.

Weird. My one word summary for the current Maui Real Estate market. Some parts of the market continue to push to all time record highs, other parts are stalled, while other segments of the market are seeing modest price declines. Supply (or lack thereof) and affordability (particularly when you take into account borrowing costs) push and pull the market in different trajectories.

We’ve already looked at the fluctuations in active listings by price point and community in this post. It might be worth zooming out and looking at those same numbers island wide since late Spring.

While active listings fluctuated over the last five months, the end of November supply for homes and condos is lower than it was at the end of June. Demand, reflected in pending listings, fell steadily downward over that time. While the data in this post shows that demand is far less than a normal market, we still have constrained supply. Demand fell enough to cool market conditions, but supply remains limited enough to prevent across the board decreases in value. Variability in market conditions on island ultimately comes down to the balance between supply and demand at the community level and at different price points. The price points that are decreasing in value appear to be those that have more financed buyers. The places that continue to see record highs have extremely limited inventory and a high percentage of cash buyers.

A Little Maui Beauty To Brighten Your Day

A beautiful sunrise taken from the beach in Wailea.

Witnessed a stunning sunrise from Wailea, Maui.✨ pic.twitter.com/4yRU7pndYl

— HAWAI'I Magazine (@HAWAIIMagazine) December 8, 2022

Contact The Maui Real Estate Team

Navigating the weird market conditions demands quality representation. Market strategies for buyers and sellers vary by price and location. Contact The Maui Real Estate Team to discuss market conditions specific to your budget and areas of interest. Our savvy and experienced agents look forward to being of assistance.

Our office just listed a great home in the New Traditions at Maui Lani. This four bedroom, three bathroom home is well maintained and has a whole lot of curb appeal. The comfortable floor plan features three bedrooms and two bathrooms upstairs including the master suite. The fourth bedroom and bathroom is on the first floor. It could make an excellent guest space, office or a room for tutu.

The kitchen features stainless steel appliances and upgraded cherry cabinets. The living room has new vinyl flooring. The master bedroom and a number of other rooms in the home have big views of the verdant peaks of the West Maui Mountains. Three split system a/c systems help to keep the home cool on the warmest days. A solar hot water heater reduces energy bills.

The outdoor spaces of the home include a tastefully landscaped front yard, a fenced back yard and a separate fenced side area on the side of the house usable for outdoor storage.

The New Traditions neighborhood has its own small park with a water feature. It is within walking distance of Pomaika’i Elementary School. Residents of Maui Lani appreciate the easy access to so much of Central Maui. The Central Maui Sports Complex, the Dunes at Maui Lani Golf Course, restaurants, shopping, movie theaters and medical care are all located within five minutes drive of the neighborhood.

This home sold in 2019. Contact The Maui Real Estate Team for assistance with other homes in Maui Lani.

Our new listing in Waiehu Terrace has only been on the market for four days, but it is already under contract with a buyer as of this morning. This three bedroom/two bath home received strong interest from the market due to the combination of a quality remodel, views and a convenient location. The home was remodeled with a new roof, new windows, and updated kitchens and bathrooms in 2013. The home offers beautiful ocean views. You don’t need to stand on a ladder from the lanai to see blue. There are nice views looking towards Kahului Bay from the living room. The property also has nice views of the West Maui Mountains from the front yard.

You can tell that there are ocean views as you walk up to the front door of this home in Waiehu Terrace.

There are ocean views from the living room of the home.

This is the kitchen and dining area of the home in Waiehu Terrace. The kitchen was remodeled with new cabinets, counter tops and appliances.

The bathrooms of this Waiehu Terrace Home were remodeled in 2013.

These are the views of The West Maui Mountains from the front yard on a clear day.

Waiehu Terrace offers a very convenient Central Maui location close to the Hospital, downtown Wailuku, UH Maui College and the shopping and movie theaters of Kahului.

The home is listed by The Maui Real Estate Team, Inc. for $465,000. This home is under contract, but the seller would still entertain back up offers. Check out our Waiehu Terrace Opportunity listing page for additional photos and details on the property. Contact The Maui Real Estate Team for additional information or to arrange a showing of the property.

We just had a healthy price reduction on the lot we have listed in Spreckelsville. This lot is the only land for sale in this desirable North Shore community at this time. The lot is almost eight-tenths of an acre, all flat and usable. Underground utilities and neighborhood covenants are part of the appeal. The property is situated just across from the community pathway that takes you to Spreckelsville Beach, a great location for windsurfing and SUP. Kanaha Beach Park, Baby Beach, Sugar Cove and Maui Country Club are just a short ride down the bike path. Paia town’s shops and restaurants are a five minute drive. Kahului’s shopping, movie theaters, performing arts center and medical facilities are ten minutes or less from your front door.

This great Spreckelsville lot is now offered for $749,000. Check out the Spreckelsville Lot with Beach Access listing page for more photos and information. Contact The Maui Real Estate Team to discuss the property or to arrange a tour of the lot and the neighborhood.

The Maui Film Festival is always something to look forward to on the calendar. The thirteenth edition of the Film Festival is scheduled from June 13th through the 17th in Wailea and the Castle Theater at the Maui Arts and Cultural Center in Kahului. This event brings a mixture of independent, documentary, and the occasional big studio production to some great Maui venues. The Celestial Cinema is held nightly under the stars on the Wailea Emerald and Gold Golf Courses. It is one of the more picturesque places to watch a film on the planet. The Castle Theater is a world class venue with top of the line visuals and acoustics. In addition to the scheduled movies, the Maui Film Festival also includes fun parties, film maker panels and celebrity tributes.

Watch this video on YouTube.

As we get closer to the event, the Film Festival has released a partial list of scheduled films. They have also announced that Elizabeth Banks will be one of this year’s festival nominees. You can expect more announcements on celebrity tributes and featured films over the next couple of weeks. We will continue to provide updates about the event on The Maui Real Estate Blog.

This weekend is shaping up to be a busy one on Maui with lots of events planned throughout the island from the Upcountry to East Maui. Celebrations of the natural environment are a big theme with Earth Day events scheduled on both Saturday and Sunday. Here is a list of some of the fun in store around Maui.

• The fun kicks off tonight in Makawao for their monthly town party. This month’s town party has a spring fashion theme. Expect fashion shows, musical performances, slam poets, pony rides, store specials and lots of great food vendors around town. You can check out the Makawao Town Party Facebook page for more details and parking information.
• Hana will be hosting the East Maui Taro Festival this weekend. On Saturday, the events will be hosting at the Hana Ball Fields between 9:00 AM and 5:00 PM. Scheduled activities include a Farmer’s Market, Poi Pounding, Food Booths, Arts and Crafts, Music and Hula. On Sunday, there are three separate events scheduled. A Taro Pancake Breakfast is scheduled from 7:30AM to 10:30 AM at Hana Bay on Sunday Morning. At 11:00 AM, there will be garden tours at the National Tropical Botanical Garden and Hale O Pi’ilani Heiau. The festivities move down the coast at the Kapahu Living Farm which will be hosting a Lo’i Excursion.
• For those that are looking to help the local environment, head over to Kahului Harbor on Saturday Morning. The Surfrider Foundation, +H20 and Community Work Day is coordinating a coastline cleanup around Kahului Harbor. Registration starts at 8:30 AM and the clean up begins at 9:00. Participants are asked to bring their own buckets, reusable bags, gloves and water bottles. The clean up will provide food and water with lunch provided by Flatbread. Check out the +H20 Facebook page for the event for additional details.
• The Maui Earth Day Festival is scheduled for Sunday in Ke’Opualani Park in Kahului on Sunday from 10:00 AM until 6:00 PM. This event will feature two musical stages, speakers, non-profit organizations, vendors, food and keiki activities. In keeping with the “Live Consciously, Consume Sustainably” theme, attendees are encouraged to bring their own non-breakable plates, cups, water bottles, & utensils. Please carpool.

No matter what you have on the agenda for the weekend, it looks like there will be plenty of Maui sunshine. I hope everyone has a safe and happy weekend.