Don’t be surprised to see a big spike in median home prices in Maui in the near future. Read on to find out why. This is our look at the May Maui Real Estate Statistics. We take a look at median prices, sales volumes, new pending sales in May and notable numbers. We also give a few thoughts on what it all means. Without further ado, here are the May numbers.

Maui Sales Volumes and Median Prices

By my count, there were 94 homes sold in May with a median sales price of $622,500. In May of 2015, there were 88 sales with a median price of $607,097. That calculates to a 7% increase in sales volume and a 2.5% increase in median price.

There were 118 condos sold in May with a median sales price of $423,500. Last May, there were 110 sales with a median price of $459,500. That calculates to a 7% increase in sales volume and an 8% decrease in median price.

There were 14 land sales with a median price of $378,500 in May. There were 12 sales in May of 2015 with a median price of $380,000. That is roughly a 17% increase in sales and around a half of a percent drop in median price.

Notable Numbers from the May Maui Real Estate Sales Activity

• The highest priced home sale last month on Maui was $6,000,000. The oceanfront estate in the Kuau area of Paia included a 4 bedroom, 4.5 bath home with 6,258 square feet of living space, a separate 1 bedroom, 1 bath cottage with 1,0125 square feet of living space on a 1.28 acre lot.
• That was one of 7 home sales over $2,000,000 in Maui during May. The other big closes included 2 sales in Wailea, 2 sales in Kapalua, and one sale each in Kula and Lahaina.
• The highest priced condo transaction last month closed for $4,150,000. That was a 3 bedroom, 3.5 bath condo with 2,789 square feet of living space at Montage Kapalua.
• The Montage sale was one of seven condo closes of $1,500,000 or greater in May. The other closes included 4 sales at Honua Kai, a Kapalua Ironwoods and a Mahana. I thought it was notable that all of those sales were in West Maui.
• The highest priced land sale for the month of May closed for $2,700,000. That lot is .429 acres of beachfront in North Kihei.
• There were 9 bank owned sales that closed in May of this year. Last year, there were 13 bank owned sales reported on the MLS.
• There were only 4 short sales this May. That was the same number as last May. Short sales remain a relatively small percentage of the total sales. With continued appreciation, that should remain the case for the remainder of this market cycle.

New Pending Sales
The bulk of the sales reported above went under contract sometime in March or April. To give us a sense of more current market demand, the chart below shows the number of properties that went under contract in May compared to the numbers in May of 2015.

This is the second month in a row when pending home sales have gone down. I would expect that we might see a dip in actual sales volume in June. Condos saw an increase in pending sales in May. That marks the 4th straight month of increased pending sales for condos compared to 2015. That bodes well for sales over the next couple of months. Land pending sales were down slightly after a slower April. Land pendings have been more up and down this year. We are also talking about a much smaller sample of sales so we may just be seeing some month to month variability.

Thoughts on the May Numbers
I started this post with a teaser that Maui Median home prices are likely to see a healthy increase sometime in the coming months. That might sound like a contradiction to my suggestion that sales volume is going to be decreasing based on the dip in pending home sales. In fact, the decrease in sales and the increase in median prices are likely tied together.

Anecdotally, it feels like inventory has been shrinking significantly for homes. The local real estate association keeps track of this information. When I looked at their data for the last few months, inventory is down almost 9% compared to earlier this year. That said, this is actually fairly typical. It mirrors shifts in inventory that we saw last year. So what makes the current market look different?

I decided to take a deeper look at the current inventory. Currently, there are 517 homes that are active. Of the 517 homes that are active, 307 of the homes are priced $1,000,000 or higher. That is an impressive 59% of the inventory. In May, the median price for a home was $622,500. Of the 517 active homes listed, there were only 83 homes priced for at or below the median sales price of $622,500. That is just 16% of the inventory. I also looked at the pending home sales. There are currently 277 homes under contract. Of that total, 147 homes of the 277 pending homes are listed for at or below the median price of $622,500. That is 53% of the pending sales. Of the 277 pending sales, 52 of the homes were priced $1,000,000 or more. That is roughly 19% of the pending sales.

Chewing on the numbers above, it is clear that there is strong demand and shrinking inventory at or below the median of $622,500. While the pending sales will likely help keep the median prices in check next month, it is likely we will see median prices start to rise unless the inventory of homes at or below the current median increases significantly. The increase will stem from fewer lower priced sales and to a lesser extent upward price pressure from the lack of inventory. The lack of inventory will likely also keep sales volumes down.

While the home market under $700,000 appears to be continuing to be tight marketplace, that is not true of other price points and property types. The market conditions also differ in different geographic areas of the island. Overall, there is a lot of variability in this market. Contact The Maui Real Estate Team to discuss your specific real estate needs. We will give you our take on market conditions particular to your interests.

It seems like just a few days ago when I was writing about the September Maui Real Estate statistics. Actually, it was a just last week when I wrote that post. Last month, a busy schedule kept me from posting the stats until the last week of the month. I had an opportunity to get the October stats out a little sooner. They are early enough in the month that I may even miss a few late reported sales. This is my sneak peek at the October sales volumes, median prices, notable sales numbers and pending sales. I also give a few thoughts on the state of the market, and what it all means for buyers and sellers. Without further ado, here are the October numbers.

October 2015 Sales Volumes and Median Prices

By my count, there were 103 homes sold in October with a median sales price of $585,000. Last October, there were 84 homes sold at a median price of $566,000. That is almost a 23% increase in sales volume and roughly a 3% change in median price.

There have been 102 condo sales reported to date for October with a median sales price of $391,450. By comparison, the October 2014 numbers were 95 condos sold at a median price of $419,000. That is a 7% increase in volume and a 7% decrease in median price.

There have been 16 lots reported sold in October with a median sales price of $375,000. Last October, there were 14 sales at a median price of $467,500.

Notable Numbers from the October Maui Real Estate Sales Activity
While compiling the numbers above, I came across some notable numbers from the October sales that I thought were worth sharing.

• The highest priced home to sell on Maui in October closed for $3,750,000. The home in the Wailea Golf Estates Subdivision has 4 bedrooms, 4 bathrooms and 4,277 square feet of living space. The home is located on the fourth green of the Wailea Blue Course. It has unobstructed ocean views and a 20 meter pool.
• The Wailea Golf Estates sale was the only home to close for over $2,000,000 last month.
• The highest priced condo to sell in October closed for $3,650,000. The condo in question is a 3 bedroom, 4 bathroom oceanfront condominium in the Kapalua Ironwoods complex.
• The Kapalua Ironwoods transaction was one of 7 condo sales to close for over $1,500,000. The other sales included 2 condos at Honua Kai, 2 at the Ritz Carlton Residences, a Wailea Point condo and a unit at Ho’olei.
• The high land sale last month was at the Makena Golf and Beach Club. The .4399 acre parcel in the Maluaka Estates neighborhood sold for $8,500,000.
• That was one of three land sales over $1,000,000. The other sales included a home site near Manele Bay on Lanai and a 131 acre parcel in Haiku.

October Pending Maui Real Estate Sales
Sales are a lagging indicator of buyer activity. Most of the sales referenced above were based on contracts that were written in August and September. The chart below shows the number of properties that went pending or under contract in October.

The October pending sales look pretty strong with only home pendings down compared to October of last year. That said, the dip in home pendings is noteworthy as the home market had been particularly strong over the last couple of months. The modest dip in activity comes as a bit of a surprise as I have been in three multiple offer situations over the last month for homes below $600,000. That is a small sample, but it still feels like there are quite a few buyers in the market. It will be interesting to watch home sales over the next couple of months. Are things cooling down a little or was this an aberration?

Thoughts on the Maui Real Estate Market and What it All Means for Buyers and Sellers
The October Stats showed another strong month of buyer activity. As mentioned in other recent stats posts, the stronger sales activity can be attributed in part to buyers trying to get into the market to take advantage of what has been a long run of really low interest rates. The federal reserve continues to discuss an increase in rates and buyers are trying to tie properties down before any rate increases occur. The low borrowing costs are that much more appealing due in part to a really tough rental market on Maui. Rental prices have gone up significantly over the last few years and some borrowers are finding that mortgages are equivalent to or in some cases better than monthly rents.

Buyers who are interested in entering this market place will find that they need to be well positioned to act quickly when good opportunities are listed. Homes under $600,000 will often attract bidding wars if they are well priced. It is not uncommon to see bidding wars on well priced homes at significantly higher price points. Sellers will find pretty favorable conditions when going to market. That said, over priced properties are still sitting even with stronger than usual fall buyer activity. There are also some parts of the market that are a little slower than others. Sellers should look closely at market conditions specific to their type of property when determining go to market prices. Contact The Maui Real Estate Team if you are thinking of buying or selling a property on Maui. We would welcome the chance to discuss your real estate needs and talk about the market particular to properties that might be of interest.

The Maui Real Estate Team hopes everyone had a great Labor Day Weekend. In between weekend fun, I took some time to sort through our Realtor’s Association database to look at last month’s sales activity. The numbers below are the “unofficial” Maui Real Estate statistics for August. They provide something of a sneak peak of what you will see in the official stats that will likely be released by the Realtors Association of Maui sometime later this week. As always, I always give some context for the numbers and a few thoughts on what they mean for the Maui market.

Thus far, there have been 81 sales reported for August 2011 at a median price of $410,000. By comparison, there were 69 sales in August of 2010 at a median price of $460,000. That represents a 17% increase in sales volume and an 11% decrease in median price when comparing this August and last August.

I counted 86 condo sales in August 2011 at a median of $266,000. The August of 2010 numbers totaled 81 sales at a median price of $310,000. That translates to a 6% increase in sales volume and a 14% decrease in median price when comparing this August to last August.

There have been 11 land sales reported in August at a median price of $180,000. This compares to 7 sales at a median of $387,500 during August of 2010. That translates to a 57% increase in volume and a 54% decrease in median price.

Short sales and Bank Owned Properties (REO) continue to be significant market drivers for Maui Real Estate. There were 55 REO sales and 19 short sales that closed last month. Of the 81 home sales, 42 were REOs or short sales. That is approximatley 52% of the home transactions. Of the 86 condo closes, 30 were REO or short sales. That equates to roughly 35% of the total condo sales. Two of the eleven land sales were REOs.

Looking at the numbers above, it was kind of a ho hum month with nothing too out of the ordinary among the sales figures. I was struggling with writer’s block earlier, but I was able to muster a few thoughts on the stats and some additional nuggets that I came up with while mining the data.

Overall, I see the continuation of some of the general trends we have seen throughout the year. Home sales outpaced the 2010 volumes, but not by huge margins. Medians continue to come in lower that the 2010 monthly medians. The dip in medians is accounted for by adjustments in value and a high volume of low priced closes driven largely by bank owned sales. August was a pretty big month for bank owned home sales with a total of 30 closes.

Condo volume for August of 2011 outpaced the volume for August of 2010 by a relatively small margin. That difference would have been a little larger were it not for for a bump in sales totals in August 2010 due to long term new development closes. As much as I hoped to never type the words “Honua Kai Effect” again, we saw it in play this month albeit on a much smaller scale. There were only two long term new developer contract closes in August 2011 versus ten in August 2010. Speaking of new developer closes, I would be remiss if I didn’t mention the impact of current new developer offerings. There were 17 additional new developer closes for condos this month. These were all based on recent contracts. New condo developments are offering good incentives and compelling prices to stay competitive in a buyer’s market.

Land sales volume has been down this year overall, but August 2011 outperformed August 2010. The median sales price for land was down pretty substantially when comparing August 2011 to August 2010. The monthly median of $180,000 was the one sales number that raised my eyebrows a little. At face value, this month’s median is a head scratcher considering that there is limited inventory available for under $200,000 on Maui. The nice thing with the small sample size for land is that it is easy to determine what is driving medians. I looked through the eleven sales and found an interesting cross section of closes. Among the sales were two lower priced parcels on Molokai, a one acre parcel with title and access issues in Wailuku and a small parcel in Wailuku that was formerly home to a large radio antenna. These one off purchases and a low number of high end sales helped to drive down the median. While we are seeing values slip in the land market, changes in medians do not mirror actual decreases in value.

I thought it was worth touching on the luxury market numbers I saw while combing through the stats. We have seen some pretty strong ultra luxury activity over the last couple of months. This August we saw three home sales over $6,000,000 including a new North Shore record of $9,600,000 for an oceanfront estate in Spreckelsville. That means we have now seen new record high sales for the island, the North Shore, Kapalua and Wailea/Makena this year. The three sales over $6,000,000 in August of 2011 compares to one sale over that price in August of 2010. On the land front, there was a big sale Upcountry with 236 acres closing for $6,250,000. This was the former Kula ‘I’o development that never quite got off the ground. High end condo sales were actually down a little this August compared to last year with five sales over $1,500,000 compared to six in 2010.

I thought it was worth noting that there were two luxury condo sales that really caught my eye. Both were under that $1,500,000 barrier that I used as a dividing line for luxury condo closes. A Na Hale O Makena unit closed for $925,000. That was the lowest priced close in the complex since 2003. There was also a Kapalua Ironwoods that closed for $1,100,000. You have to go back ten years to see prices in Ironwoods at that price level. These sales make for an interesting contrast with some of the record highs that we have seen in the luxury market. It is hard to draw too many conclusions from these two closes other than the fact that it is a pretty schizophrenic real estate market. You could also argue that ultra luxury record closes are not indicative of the performance of the overall Maui luxury market.

What does all of the above mean in the scheme of the greater Maui Real Estate market? What is the outlook for buyers and sellers? Overall, the data still seems to indicate that this is a buyer’s market. That being said, some buyers may find the inventory limited in some market segments. There can also be considerable competition for the best values that come on the market. Sales above asking price are common among the best bank owned deals. Buyers who require assistance with financing should contact a mortgage professional to get pre-qualified before beginning their search. There are some really good interest rates available, but strong credit and employment are necessary to take advantage of the better financing options. Buyers should also be aware that banks are closely scrutinizing the condition of the properties being purchased. Homes in poor condition may not be able to be financed or they may require some sort of renovation loan. Sellers need to closely evaluate their particular market segment when developing a pricing strategy. Some market segments still have excess inventory. Other segments may still be seeing significant competition from bank owned properties and short sales. In the condo market, new development offerings can also be stout competition for conventional sellers. In these market conditions, it pays to work with a knowledgeable, full-time Realtor. Contact the Maui Real Estate Team with questions or for assistance buying or selling Maui Real Estate.