It’s that time again. This is the twenty-first edition of the Maui Market Musings. Our weekly, biweekly, monthly update on the Maui Real Estate market. The latest edition looks at active and pending inventory, price reductions and demand for new listings. There are plenty of words down below, so I will spare you from any more up here…

End of November Maui Home Inventory

	9/30/22		10/31/22		11/30/22
	Active	Pending	Active	Pending	Active	Pending
<$750,000	7	14	9	15	5 (-4)	14 (-1)
$750,000-$999,999	21	46	29	29	31 (+2)	25 (-4)
$1,000,000-$1,499,999	45	33	64	28	61 (-3)	28
$1,500,000-$1,999,999	44	17	41	13	28 (-13)	17 (+4)
$2,000,000-$2,999,999	33	12	35	10	34 (-1)	11 (+1)
$3,000,000-$4,999,999	35	11	32	7	32	7
$5,000,000-$9,999,999	27	6	26	5	23 (-3)	9 (+4)
$10,000,000-$19,999,999	11	0	9	0	14 (+5)	0
$20,000,000+	2	1	3	1	5 (+2)	1
Total	225	140	248	108	233 (-15)	112(+4)

	9/30/22		10/31/22		11/30/22
	Active	Pending	Active	Pending	Active	Pending
Haiku	24	7	28	9	29 (+1)	10 (+1)
Hana	9	1	10	0	10	0
Ka’anapali	10	3	7	2	9 (+2)	2
Kahului	7	26	16	16	16	13 (-3)
Kapalua	4	0	6	0	5 (+1)	3 (+3)
Kihei	35	16	40	11	31 (-9)	15 (+4)
Kula	22	11	20	11	22 (+2)	12 (+1)
Lahaina	21	10	22	13	15 (-7)	13
Makawao	13	11	13	9	11 (-2)	7 (-2)
Napili/Kahana/Hono…	9	7	11	6	9 (-2)	3 (-3)
Puklanai	6	7	8	3	10 (+2)	3
Sprecks/Paia	10	4	8	2	7 (-1)	3 (+1)
Wailea	10	8	11	4	16 (+5)	4
Wailuku	36	26	40	21	32 (-8)	19 (-2)

Notable Numbers from the End of November Maui Home Inventory

The information above is provided with the usual framework. The home inventory data by price point includes all of the island of Maui, but excludes the islands of Molokai and Lanai. The district information is limited to the districts and communities with the most activity.

• After an increase in inventory in October, Maui home inventories decreased again in November. Active listings dropped 6.1%.
• Looking at the the active inventory by price point shows a mix of trajectories. While most price ranges decreased, the continued increase between $750,000 and $999,999 is notable. This is a part of the market with more financed buyers. Those buyers are feeling the affordability impact of higher rates. The $10,000,000 plus price range is not known for financed buyers. That said, it also saw an increase.
• Pending sales actually increased between the end of October and the end of November. While the increase was a modest 3.7%, the increase in activity comes as somewhat of a surprise considering both rates and the more significant decrease between late September and late October.
• Broken down by price point, the picture is more mixed. Again, fewer properties went under contract in that $750,000-$999,999 price range. Pending sales increased in the $1,500,000 to $3,000,000 range. The biggest percentage increase in pending sales was in the $5,000,000 to $9,999,999 price range.
• At a community level, inventory trends were all over the place. Kihei, Lahaina and Wailuku all experienced notable decreases in inventory. Most other markets experienced modest changes with increases or decreases of a couple of homes. The Wailea active inventory increased the most month to month.
• There was also a lot of variability in the end of month change in pending sales by community. Pending sales increased in five communities, remained unchanged in five districts, and decreased in four. Kapalua and Kihei saw the biggest increase in pendings. Kahului and the Napili, Kahana, Honokowai area decreased the most.

End of November Maui Condo Inventory

	9/30/22		10/31/22		11/30/22
	Active	Pending	Active	Pending	Active	Pending
<$250,000	1	3	2	4	1 (-1)	4
$250,000-$499,999	11	16	19	12	19	14 (+2)
$500,000-$749,999	28	40	32	35	43 (+11)	33 (-2)
$750,000-$999,999	33	33	27	27	28 (+1)	29 (+2)
$1,000,000-$1,499,999	19	36	21	30	31 (+10)	24 (-6)
$1,500,000-$1,999,000	18	34	14	33	21 (+7)	28 (-5)
$2,000,000-$2,999,999	14	43	15	40	18 (+3)	39 (-1)
$3,000,000-$5,000,000	10	17	10	17	11 (+1)	17
$5,000,000-$9,999,999	7	0	11	1	12 (+1)	2 (+1)
$10,000,000+	4	0	3	1	3	0
Total	145	222	154	200	187 (+33)	190 (-10)

	9/30/22		10/31/22		11/30/22
	Active	Pending	Active	Pending	Active	Pending
Ka’anapali	17	14	18	9	25 (+7)	4 (-5)
Kahului	3	4	5	5	5	5
Kapalua	10	4	12	4	14 (+2)	2 (-2)
Kihei	48	61	43	60	53 (+10)	51 (-9)
Lahania	5	7	8	4	14 (+6)	8 (+4)
Ma’alaea	4	4	3	6	4 (+1)	8 (+2)
Napili/Kahana/Hono…	29	30	33	17	39 (+6)	19 (+2)
Wailea	19	86	19	85	23 (+4)	85
Wailuku	8	12	11	10	8 (-3)	8 (-2)

Notable Numbers from the End of November Maui Condo Inventory

Again, the tables above come with the usual framework for our end of month inventory. The table by price point includes all condos on Maui, but it does not include condos on the islands of Molokai or Lanai. The table with districts is limited to the communities with the most activity.

Pending sales at La’i Loa at Wailea Hills skew the data in Wailea and the $1,500,000-$5,000,000 price ranges. There are 75 pending sales in that development based on contracts penned in 2020 and the first quarter of 2021. Pending sales in La’i Loa won’t start to close until sometime in 2023. Paradise Ridge Estates in Kihei also skews the data albeit to a lesser extent. There are 18 pending sales with that development based on contracts penned between 2018 and the first quarter of 2022. Overall, 49.73% of the pending condo inventory is in La’i Loa or Paradise Ridge Estates.

• End of month condo inventory increased for the second straight month. Active inventory grew by 21.42%.
• Seven out of ten price ranges increased inventory between the end of October and the end of November. Two price ranges remained constant and only condos priced below $250,000 decreased in active inventory.
• The largest increases in active inventory occurred between $500,000-$749,999 and $1,000,000 to $1,999,999.
• Pending sales dipped 5% between the end of October and the end of November. Pendings in four price points decreased, increased in three and remained unchanged in three.
• The biggest decrease in pending sales occurred between $1,000,000 and $1,999,999.
• Active inventory increased in all but two communities. Only Wailuku saw a decrease while Kahului inventory remained unchanged. Kihei increased the most by the number of units and Lahaina increased the most by percentage.
• Pending sales increased the most in Lahaina. Kihei pending sales decreased the most.

Pending Sales vs. New Listings

With the shift in active and pending sales, it is worth taking a look at what’s driving inventory levels. How did November stack up against other years for new listings and new pending sales?

	11/2022	11/2021	11/2019	11/2018	11/2017
Homes	79	114	125	147	140
Condos	109	187	208	153	193

Looking at new inventory in November, you can see that we are well below last year. For homes, there were just over 30% fewer listings than last November. More notably, last month’s new inventory was anywhere between 39% and 46% less than what came to market in November of 2017-2019. The decrease in new condo inventory entering the market in November is even more pronounced. There were roughly 42% less condo listings last month compared to November 2021. New inventory came in anywhere between 53% and 56% lower than Novembers 2017 and 2019. The one outlier being November of 2018. Even that year had 40% more new listings than this year.

	11/2022	11/2021	11/2019	11/2018	11/2017
Homes	63	95	90	80	83
Condos	69	180	147	110	125

While inventory remains low, the number of properties going under contract decreased significantly from last November and the Pre-Covid Novembers Prior. New pending home sales this November are almost 34% lower than last November. They are down between 21 and 30% compared to the Novembers between 2017 and 2019. Again, the difference in the condo market is a little more dramatic. New Pending sales from November 22 are almost 62% less than November of 21. This November’s new pending sales are between 37% and 53% lower than November 2017-2019.

Looking at the numbers above, inventory clearly remains low. Pending sales are also down quite a bit. While some of the decrease in pending sales may be attributed to the limited inventory, decreased demand is the bigger driver for the decrease in activity. The weight of decreased affordability impacts a number of buyers.

How Quickly Are Things Going Under Contract?

Another metric we use to track the market is the speed at which properties are going under contract. Specifically, what percentage of new listings are going under contract in 10 days or less. We started tracking that number in mid February during the peak of last winter’s frenzy. At the time, 56% of all new listings went under contract in ten days or less. Prior to this post, the last time I checked this metric was for the period between October 11th and October 18th. At that time, 25.58% of properties listed during that span went under contract in ten days or less. Between November 21st and November 28th, 15.9% of all properties went into escrow within that ten day span.

Of the single family homes that came to market between November 21st and November 28th, 13.64% went under contract in ten days or less. For context, 36% of homes listed between November 21st and November 28th, 2021 went under contract in ten days or less. Of the homes listed between November 21 and November 28th, 2018, only 4.17% of the properties went under contract in ten days or less.

Of the condos listed between November 21st and November 28th, 18.18% sold in 10 days or less. Last year, 43.24% of condos listed in that period sold for 10 days or less. Pre-covid, 29.26% of condos listed between November 21st and November 28th sold in ten days or less.

Overall, this is the most tepid response new listings received since we started tracking this data point. While the slower market activity could be a function of the Thanksgiving Holiday, the 2021 and 2019 numbers both remained busy despite Thanksgiving.

Price Reductions

A lot of sellers don’t seem to be fretting the smaller numbers of buyers on the market. That is evident in the recent numbers on price reductions in the active inventory. On November 30th, 37.02% of all active home listings reduced their price one or more times. That is down from 39.92% on October 31st and 42.41% on September 29th. While the percentage of homes with price reductions started to tick down nationally in the last couple of weeks of November, the percentage of price reductions started declining in early September on Maui.

On November 30th, 23.53% of all active condo listings reduced their price at least once since being listed. That number was 29.41% on October 31st. It was 25% on September 29th. It’s interesting to see that price reductions are down considering the decreased condo sales activity over the last month. Low inventory and the start of peak winter home buying season at the end of the month is emboldening sellers.

Quick Thoughts on the State of the market.

Weird. My one word summary for the current Maui Real Estate market. Some parts of the market continue to push to all time record highs, other parts are stalled, while other segments of the market are seeing modest price declines. Supply (or lack thereof) and affordability (particularly when you take into account borrowing costs) push and pull the market in different trajectories.

We’ve already looked at the fluctuations in active listings by price point and community in this post. It might be worth zooming out and looking at those same numbers island wide since late Spring.

While active listings fluctuated over the last five months, the end of November supply for homes and condos is lower than it was at the end of June. Demand, reflected in pending listings, fell steadily downward over that time. While the data in this post shows that demand is far less than a normal market, we still have constrained supply. Demand fell enough to cool market conditions, but supply remains limited enough to prevent across the board decreases in value. Variability in market conditions on island ultimately comes down to the balance between supply and demand at the community level and at different price points. The price points that are decreasing in value appear to be those that have more financed buyers. The places that continue to see record highs have extremely limited inventory and a high percentage of cash buyers.

A Little Maui Beauty To Brighten Your Day

A beautiful sunrise taken from the beach in Wailea.

Witnessed a stunning sunrise from Wailea, Maui.✨ pic.twitter.com/4yRU7pndYl

— HAWAI'I Magazine (@HAWAIIMagazine) December 8, 2022

Contact The Maui Real Estate Team

Navigating the weird market conditions demands quality representation. Market strategies for buyers and sellers vary by price and location. Contact The Maui Real Estate Team to discuss market conditions specific to your budget and areas of interest. Our savvy and experienced agents look forward to being of assistance.

By some margin, 2021 was the busiest year ever for transaction volume at the Kapalua Resort. Now that we are two-thirds of the way through 2022, we thought it might be a good time to check on market activity in this resort community located on Maui’s northwest coastline. This update looks at sales volume, pricing and more. It also looks at the outlook for the rest of the year and a slightly more long range outlook as the market slowly transitions back to “normal”.

Kapalua Home Market Numbers

The numbers below represent notable numbers for year to date home sales activity in Kapalua through September 5th, 2022.

• Maui Realtors reported 12 home sales over the last eight plus months. That is 50% of the 24 sales reported during the same period of 2021, and 25% below the 16 sales during the same period of 2019.
• Limited inventory played a pretty big role in the decreased sales volume compared to last year. While reduced demand may also be a factor, that is harder to show via the statistics.
• Two out of the twelve sales closed for over asking price. An additional four sales closed for full price meaning 50% of the transactions closed for asking price or higher. It is striking that only one of the 24 homes sold in the first eight months of 2021 sold for over asking price and only 3 more sales closed for asking price or above. Back in 2019, none of the year to date sales sold for full price let alone asking price.
• Of the twelve transactions, Realtors reported that seven of the buyers paid cash.
• The median price of the homes sold in Kapalua this year is $5,025,000. That is 25.31% higher than median of $4,010,000 for homes sold during the same period of 2021. It is 105% higher than the median sales price of $2,450,000 during the same period of 2019.
• The average price of the homes sold in Kapalua this year is $5,300,000. That compares to $4,886,354 and $2,364,000 during the same periods of 2021 and 2019 respectively. That means this year’s average is 8.47% and 124.2% higher than 2021 and 2019 respectively.
• The lowest priced home to sell for the year to date in Kapalua closed for $2,750,000. The 3 bedroom, 3.5 bathroom home in Pineapple Hill with 3,670 square feet of living space is located on a 10,703 square foot lot.
• The highest price sale for the year to date closed in August. The Pineapple Hill home has 6 bedrooms, 6.5 bathrooms and 7,784 square feet of living space on just under a half acre of land.

• Pineapple Hill tops the list for busiest subdivision for sales activity this year. Five homes closed in Pineapple Hill with two additional homes closing in Pineapple Hill Estates. Three homes closed in Plantation Estates and two homes closed in Mahana Estates. There’s been no inventory and no sales in Kapalua Place. There is one pending sale in Honolua Ridge.

Kapalua Condo Market Numbers

The numbers below are the most notable from Kapalua Condo sales through September 5th. It includes only condos in the complexes that are formerly located within the Kapalua resort and does not include condo developments that border Kapalua.

• Maui Realtors reported 51 condos sold for the year to date. That is 51.89% below the 106 sales reported through the same period of 2021. It is 15.9% more than the 44 closes during the same period of 2019.
• Again, it is pretty clear that constrained inventory played a role in the substantial decrease in sales compared to last year. It’s difficult to estimate the role decreased demand played in the lower number of sales. That said, it is worth pointing out that we had more sales this year with far less inventory than we did in 2019.
• Of the 51 sales, 12 or 23.53% sold for over asking price and 28 or 54.9% sold for asking price or above. By comparison, 3.77% and 30.19% of all 2021 sales over the same period sold for over asking price and at or above asking price respectively. Over the same period of 2019, 4.55% of all condos sold over asking with 34.09% selling for asking price or above.
• Of the 51 condos that sold thus far this year, Realtors reported that 24 out of 51 or 47.05% were cash transactions.
• The median price of the condos sold for the year to date is $1,450,000. Over the same period last year, the median was $1,145,000. That’s a 26.64% difference. The median during the same period of 2019 was $917,500. That is a 58% difference.
• The average price of condos sold in Kapalua through September 5th is $2,438,421. During the same period of 2021, the average price was 29.07% lower at $1,889,224. The difference in average between 2022 and the same period of 2019 is 15.50%. During that period, the average was $2,111,034.
• The lowest priced condo sale thus far this year in Kapalua closed for $940,000. That price bought the new owner a 1 bedroom, 2 bath with 972 square feet of living space in Kapalua Golf Villas.
• That was one of just three condo sales below $1,000,000!
• Kapalua’s highest condo sale for the year to date closed for $8,000,000 at Montage Kapalua Bay. That unit includes 3 bedrooms, 3.5 bathrooms and 2,904 square feet of living space.

• Kapalua Golf Villas was the busiest condo complex for transactions with 17 total sales. Montage and Kapalua Bay Villas came next with 9 sales each.

Outlook for the Rest of The Year in Kapalua

It’s time to get out the old crystal ball to see what we might expect in terms of sales activity in Kapalua for the rest of the year. Ok, ok maybe we will skip the crystal ball and try to use some other metrics that might give us some sense of market activity. When trying to gauge current market conditions, I like to look at demand for new listings and inventory.

Last month, five new condo listings came to market and one home came to market. Of the five condo listings, two were under contract in less than 10 days. That would appear to suggest that there is still some demand in the condo market. While overall demand on island might be feeling a crunch from interest rates, Kapalua is less likely to be rate sensitive. Keep in mind that just under 60% of this year’s home sales and just under 50% of this year’s condo sales in Kapalua were cash transactions.

The current inventory of listings remains limited. There are only 11 active condo listings in Kapalua and 4 pending sales as of September 5th. When you break it down by condo complex. There are no active listings in the Ironwoods or Coconut Grove. Both Kapalua Ridge and Kapalua Golf Villas have one active listing each and the Bay Villas has two listings. Only the Ritz Carlton Residences with three listings and Montage with four listings have any significant depth of inventory. On the home front, there are just five active home listings with one pending home sale.

One last factor to consider is seasonality. The charts below shows Kapalua home and condo pending sales by month in 2022, 2021, 2019 and 2018. In all of those years, the last four months of the year tend to see fewer properties going under contract.

Based on the inventory, demand and past seasonality, I would expect that sales activity for the rest of the year will be quieter than the first eight months. That said, I would venture there should be some demand for the limited inventory particularly in the the lower price points of the condo market.

Longer Term Kapalua Outlook

I mentioned at the start of the Kapalua discussion, that Kapalua was one of the markets that saw the greatest increases in demand over the last couple of years. That comes after a decade where Kapalua saw lesser demand than other resort markets. While Kapalua has always had its share of loyal fans, it tended to be a slower market. Days on market were longer and sales volume was lower. That started to shift a little at the end of the decade and it changed completely with Covid. As the market slowly moves toward normal, what does “normal” actually look like?

Maui Prep helped fuel part of Kapalua’s Covid period boom. The school was able to scale up enrollment to accommodate a large number of affluent families who took advantage of the work from anywhere movement. Many of those families ended up buying homes in Kapalua or other nearby areas of West Maui. The question of how much ongoing demand there will be from affluent remote workers remains something of an unknown.

I recently had the opportunity to pose the question about the future of the Kapalua market to an agent who lives and works in the community. I thought her answer offered some interesting insights. While Maui Prep came up, she also discussed the role of the Montage and the Ritz. She pointed out that the closure of the Kapalua Bay Hotel in 2006 and construction projects at the Ritz limited places to stay and the overall appeal of the area during the latter half of the 2000s. The foreclosure on the Ritz Carlton Club in 2013 didn’t help. When the Ritz Carlton Club redeveloped and rebranded as the Montage in 2014, it brought in new vacationers. Many of them developed loyalty to Kapalua and eventually became second home owners.

With those two anchor properties, the other agent thought this would provide a solid foundation for future demand in the community. For this and other reasons, she is very much a Kapalua Bull over the long term. It was an interesting answer and one I thought might be worth sharing with our readers.

Contact The Maui Real Estate Team

We will continue to provide periodic updates on the Kapalua market on this blog. If you are interested in Kapalua Properties, you can find the current inventory of Kapalua Homes for Sale and Kapalua Condos for Sale on MauiRealEstate.com. Contact The Maui Real Estate Team if you have questions on any of the listings or need assistance buying or selling a property in Kapalua.

Sweet sixteen! This is the 16th edition of our almost weekly look at the Maui Real Estate market. This latest edition is highlighted by our monthly inventory check. We break down end of the month home and condo inventory by both community and price point. We also check in on the percentage of the active inventory with price reductions, and the percentage of new listings going under contract in ten days or less. Collectively, the three metrics give us a better sense of current market conditions. Last but not least, this edition highlights a couple of national perspectives on the real estate market.

Inventory Watch for Single Family Homes

	5/31/22		6/30/22		7/31/22
	Active	Pending	Active	Pending	Active	Pending
<$750,000	6	22	6	16	11 (+5)	14 (-2)
$750,000-$999,999	19	54	32	63	25 (-7)	62 (-1)
$1,000,000-$1,499,999	43	37	58	34	65 (+7)	25 (-9)
$1,500,000-$1,999,999	30	27	44	22	41 (-3)	19 (-3)
$2,000,000-$2,999,999	37	14	34	15	31 (-3)	19 (+4)
$3,000,000-$4.999,999	24	11	27	10	25 (-2)	9 (-1)
$5,000,000-$9,999,999	22	8	23	8	24 (+1)	7 (-1)
$10,000,000-$19,999,999	9	2	13	0	12 (-1)	0
$20,000,000+	3	1	4	1	5 (+1)	1
Totals	193	176	241	169	239 (-2)	156 (-13)

	5/31/22		6/30/22		7/31/22
	Active	Pending	Active	Pending	Active	Pending
Haiku	15	12	20	13	22 (+2)	11 (-2)
Hana	5	3	4	2	4	1 (-1)
Ka’anapali	13	6	11	7	10 (-1)	7
Kahului	11	24	8	27	13 (+5)	21 (-6)
Kapalua	4	2	5	3	5	1 (-2)
Kihei	27	25	45	22	48 (+3)	14 (-8)
Kula	24	12	25	13	19 (-6)	16 (+3)
Lahaina	15	15	20	18	18 (-2)	14 (-4)
Makawao	11	17	13	12	14 (+1)	9 (-3)
Napili/Kahana/Hono…	12	5	12	3	10 (-2)	6 (+3)
Pukalani	5	12	12	7	7 (-5)	6 (-1)
Spreckelsville/Paia	12	4	11	2	10 (-1)	2
Wailea/Makena	8	5	13	4	15 (+2)	5 (+1)
Wailuku	28	32	39	33	39	35 (+2)

End of July Home Inventory Review

Here are some notes about the data above to provide some framework. The price range chart includes all of the island of Maui, but not the islands of Lanai or Molokai. The list of districts above is limited to those with the most activity.

• After seeing an increase in inventory in June, the inventory of active home listings actually decreased in July by approximately 1%. We just aren’t seeing the substantive increase in home inventory that many mainland markets experienced this spring and early summer.
• The decrease in pending sales continues. Pending sales are 8% below the end of June and 12% below the end of May.
• Looking at the different price points, I think the two most notable price ranges are homes priced below $750,000 and listings between $1,000,000 and $1,499,999.
• The below $750,000 range turned my head at first glance. The “entry point” to the Maui market’s been one of the most competitive parts of the market for some time. When I looked at the actual inventory, the increased inventory in this range consists of properties that need a lot of work. Fix and flip buyers who might pursue opportunities like this seem to be less active.
• The $1,000,000 to $1,499,999 price range is the one segment of the market that saw increases in inventory in both June and July. Inventory at the end of July is 51% higher than it was at the end of May. This price range also had the biggest drop in pending sales over July. This is a price range that is likely feeling the effects of affordability challenges. It is out of reach for most Maui residents particularly with higher borrowing costs.
• The $2,000,000-$2,999,999 price range is the one market segment that saw an increase in pending sales.
• Looking at the different communities around the island, Kihei is noteworthy for both an increase in inventory and a decrease in sales. Inventory is up 77% from the end of May and pending sales are down 37%. Billy and I were discussing why Kihei may be seeing the biggest increase in inventory. It’s hard to say definitively. That said, we both noticed a fair amount of aspirational pricing among the active inventory.
• The other thing to note about the community chart is some of the variability evident. Some places that saw increased inventory last month saw decreases this month and vice versa. With these small sample sizes, I surmise we may continue to see month to month shifts in a number of communities.

Inventory Watch for Condos

	5/31/22		6/30/22		7/31/22
	Active	Pending	Active	Pending	Active	Pending
<$250,000	5	9	2	8	1 (-1)	8
$250,000-$499,999	12	23	19	25	11 (-8)	23 (-2)
$500,000-$749,999	18	55	31	40	43 (+8)	39 (-1)
$750,000-$999,999	29	54	44	46	44	43 (-3)
$1,000,000-$1,499,999	23	49	29	30	30 (+1)	31 (+1)
$1,500,000-$1,999,999	21	34	28	34	30 (+2)	33 (-1)
$2,000,000-$2,999,999	19	40	20	36	20	36
$3,000,000-$4,999,999	12	22	11	25	12 (+1)	18 (-7)
$5,000,000-$9,999,999	7	7	11	3	10 (-1)	3
$10,000,000+	3	0	4	0	4	0
Totals	149	293	199	247	205 (+6)	234 (-13)

	5/31/22		6/30/22		7/31/22
	Active	Pending	Active	Pending	Active	Pending
Ka’anapali	23	23	23	15	24 (+1)	13 (-2)
Kahului	5	8	4	3	2 (-2)	8 (+5)
Kapalua	7	15	12	9	10 (-2)	10 (+1)
Kihei	35	95	55	74	67 (+12)	60 (-14)
Lahaina	14	8	16	5	16	8 (+3)
Ma’alaea	3	5	5	5	5	6 (+1)
Napili/Kahana/Hono…	34	39	48	34	40 (-8)	34
Wailea/Makena	16	91	23	85	25 (+2)	82 (-3)
Wailuku	9	11	12	12	14 (+2)	13 (+1)

End of July Condo Inventory Review

The price points table includes all condos on Maui, but it does not include condos on Molokai or Lanai. The table with districts is limited to the districts with the most activity. As mentioned in previous musings that look at inventory, pending sales at La’i Loa at Wailea Hills skew the data in Wailea and the $1,500,000-$5,000,000 price ranges. There are 75 pending sales in that development based on contracts penned in 2020 and the first quarter of 2021. Pending sales in La’i Loa won’t start to close until sometime in 2023.

• After a big 33% jump in inventory between the end of May and June, the inventory of active listings increased a modest 3% by the last day of July.
• Pending sales also continued to drop with a 5.3% decrease in pending sales on July 31st compared to June 30th. That compares to the 16% drop between the end of May and the end of June.
• When you hone in on the different price points, only 4 out of 10 of the price ranges actually experienced increases in inventory. Two of the four only increased by a single condo.
• The lion’s share of the increase in inventory occurred in the $500,000 to $749,999 price range. Looking at the listings in that price range, the majority of those units are non-vacation rental condos geared toward island residents. This segment of the market showed surprising resiliency as rates increased. It seems to be cooling with inventory and days on market both increasing.
• Pending sales decreased across 5 of 10 price points. The $3,000,000 to $4,999,999 price range experienced the largest dip in activity with 7 fewer pending sales.
• Looking at the inventory changes by community, Kihei stands out with the biggest increase in active listings and the biggest decrease in pending listings. Again, I am not sure I can pin point a single reason. As with Kihei homes, I surmise sellers with aspirational pricing play a part. There are also quite a few non-vacation rental Kihei Condos in that $500,000-$750,000 range.
• The Napili, Kahana and Honokowai area took a different trajectory from Kihei with 8 fewer listings on the market.
• Looking at the resorts, Ka’anapali and Wailea both saw modest increases in inventory while Kapalua inventory decreased modestly.

Price Reductions

While inventory remains limited, we are seeing an increasing number of price reductions. As of August 15th, a total of 39.67% of active home listings reduced price one or more times. That compares to 34.03% as of July 4th. In the condo market, 29.26% of condo listings reduced asking price as of August 15th. On July 4th, 24.63% of all condo listings reduced list price.

It’s worth taking a minute to delve into exactly what an increase in price reductions might mean. To be honest, it really varies on a case by case basis. It’s pretty clear that a number of sellers in this market priced with first quarter market conditions in mind. During that time, prices increased upwards rapidly. Sellers could get away with being ambitious. Fast forward 5 months and the rate of appreciation is slowing significantly. If someone wants or needs to sell sooner, they are going to have to price closer to recent comparable sales. More sellers hoping that frothy market conditions continued into the 2nd and 3rd quarter are adjusting their expectations.

It’s also worth noting that pricing on Maui can be challenging. There is enough heterogeneity in the market that even sellers trying to price near comparable sales can miss the mark. If sellers and their agents struggle to value a property due to its unique characteristics, they may need to receive market feedback and adjust accordingly.

At this point, the price reductions that occurring appear to be sellers either the ambitious adjusting expectations or those struggling to come up with a value responding to the market. I haven’t seen any price reduction data that shows sellers on Maui adjusting prices below recent comparable sales. If we do start to see any shifts in value, it is likely going to occur first in the pockets of the market where inventory is higher.

Demand for New Listings

In February, we started tracking what percentage of properties went under contract in ten days or less. Back then, 56% of all listings went under contract within 10 days. That percentage slowly decreased throughout the spring with a more pronounced shift after interest rates spiked above 5%. For the period between July 25th and August 1st, the number dipped down to 22.45% of all active listings. For comparison, 50.94% of all new listings went under contract within 10 days between July 25th and August 1st of 2021. During the same period of 2019, 28% of new listings went under contract within 10 days of coming to market.

There is some discrepancy between homes and condos for this metric. For the 25th through the 1st, 26.92% of new condo listings and 17.36% of homes went under contract within 10 days of hitting the market. Again for comparison’s sake, between 7/25/21 and 8/5/21, 48% homes and 57% of condos went under contract within 10 days or less of being listed. For the period between 7/25/19 and 8/1/19, 25% of homes and 30.23% of condos went under contract within 10 days or less of being listed.

The numbers above would suggest that market conditions are definitely a lot cooler than earlier this year or this time last year. It would also seem to suggest that the market is cooler than pre-covid conditions in 2019. That said, it is worth noting that 2019 was a pretty strong year for real estate on island.

A Few National Real Estate Perspectives Worth Sharing

It’s been a while since we posted some national perspectives on the real estate market. I thought it might be worth sharing some thoughts I recently came across on social media.

This is not a one-size fits all housing cool-down.

Just look at Phoenix and Tampa.

Both were super hot markets during the boom. Now, Phoenix is slowing much faster. pic.twitter.com/uYTWMH3DjT

— Lance Lambert (@NewsLambert) August 12, 2022

I am not sure that the tweet above is a new perspective to all of our readers, but I thought it was one worth reiterating. While there’s been a demand slow down across the board in the national market, local market conditions are strongly impacted by available inventory. Some former hot spots for real estate appreciation are seeing stronger market shifts and signs of price decreases as inventory ballooned over the last few months. Other places where inventory growth remains limited aren’t experiencing downward pressure on pricing. Maui more closely resembles the latter than the former.

If you have a little time, I also included this video from the folks at Altos Research. It discusses some of the recent changes in their market analysis and forecasts as the rate of inventory growth is slowing around the country.

Watch this video on YouTube.

They suggest that the chances of broader price reductions are lowering due to the more limited inventory growth. It will be interesting to compare their current projections to the actual conditions in the fall market.

Some Maui Beauty to Brighten Your Post

Saturday beach days on Maui's south shores.☀️ pic.twitter.com/GMjQ9sgA2s

— HAWAI'I Magazine (@HAWAIIMagazine) August 13, 2022

Contact The Maui Real Estate Team

If you have questions or comments on this post, Contact The Maui Real Estate Team. Thinking of buying or selling property on Maui? Call us or send us an e-mail, we would welcome the chance to sit down with you to discuss your real estate needs.

If there is any one community within Maui that epitomizes the Covid era real estate boom, it is Kapalua. This resort community on Maui’s Northwest coastline was always an appealing locale for a segment of Maui’s luxury property buyers. That said, inventory tended to be higher and days on market tended to be longer than other resort areas like Wailea and to a lesser extent Ka’anapali. With that context, the recent surge in activity in Kapalua is that much more astounding. In this post, we take a look at some of the numbers from the last 18 plus months of sales. We also give a few thoughts towards the end of the post on the market outlook for 2022.

Kapalua Homes

Kapalua was one of the first luxury home markets on the island to show signs of life in the second half of 2020. The strong performance continued into 2021. The numbers below represent highlights from the 2021 market activity.

Kapalua 2021 Home Sale Notable Numbers

• Maui Realtors reported 29 homes sold within the Kapalua Resort during 2021. That is a 70% increase over 2020.
• The 29 sales is the highest ever number for a single year in Kapalua. It is worth noting that 2020 was the second strongest year ever for home sales in Kapalua.
• The median price of homes sold during 2021 is $4,135,000. The average price is $4,972,327.
• The highest priced transaction closed for $15,000,000. That was for 9 Kapalua Place. This beachfront home includes over 7,000 square feet of living space on a .7 acre parcel of land.
• That was one of three closes over $10,000,000. The other two sales included another beachfront home in the Kapalua Place subdivision and a home in Kapalua Plantation Estates.
• Pineapple Hill was the busiest subdivision for transactions with 15 closes. Plantation Estates saw the next most activity with 6 sales. They were followed by Honolua Ridge with 4 sales, the aforementioned Kapalua Place’s 2 closes and a single home sale in Mahana Estates.

Behind the Numbers

As mentioned above, Kapalua’s market surge started in the second half of 2020. Specifically, it was the last quarter of 2020 when transaction volume picked up. Nine of seventeen sales for the year closed in November and December. The upturn in market activity happened earlier than the Wailea Market, a larger resort community with typically much higher sales volumes. What was it that drove earlier buyer interest in Kapalua? Well it wasn’t any new resort amenities. The biggest driver was the proximity to one of the island’s better private schools.

Early in the pandemic, Kapalua became a Zoom town. A large number of Silicon Valley employees moved to Maui to work remotely. Initially, they came as renters. Those with families had their kids learning remotely for the last couple of months of the 19/20 school year. At the start of the 2020/21 school year, the enrollment of Maui Prep ballooned by 100 students. All of the new students came from Silicon Valley families. The school, located minutes from Kapalua, offered a draw to remote workers that a place like Wailea did not. Many of the families that started as renters began to purchase property in the fall of 2020 and that momentum continued into 2021.

It’s worth looking at the 2021 sales more closely as market conditions were not uniform throughout the year. Twenty of the twenty-nine sales in Kapalua occurred in the first six months of the year. During the first part of the year, there was still a decent supply of homes for sale. The decreased sales volume during the second half of the year can be attributed to a combination of reduced inventory, seasonality and perhaps slightly lesser demand. Though, I would put inventory at the top of that list by a good margin. Scarcity remains a driving factor going into 2022. I will comment more on that in the market outlook below.

Kapalua Condos

The Kapalua Resort set a new record for condo sales in 2022. The dynamics driving the market were a little different than the home market. It was less of a case of remote workers and more a case of the Covid second home boom. The numbers below show some of the 2021 market activity followed by a few more thoughts on what drove the numbers.

Kapalua 2021 Condo Market Numbers

• Maui Realtors reported 145 sales in the Kapalua Resort during 2021. That is a 363% increase in activity over 2020.
• For additional context, the next closest year for condo sales in Kapalua is 2004. There were 87 closed transactions that year.
• The median price of the condos sold in 2021 is $1,220,000. The average price is $2,060,805.
• The highest priced transaction closed for $13,295,000. That type of cash buys you a 4,050 square foot, four bedroom, four and a half bathroom unit at the Montage Residences Kapalua Bay with stunning views. This is the highest ever sales price for a condo in Kapalua.
• The lowest priced condo sold in 2021 closed for $600,000. That sale was a 1 bedroom, 1.5 bath unit at Kapalua Golf Villas.
• Golf Villas experienced the most sales activity in the resort with 44 closes in 2021. Kapalua Bay Villas came next with 30 closed transactions followed by Kapalua Ridge with 28 closed sales and Montage with 27. On the quieter end of the spectrum, 6 sales closed in Coconut Grove, 5 closed in the Ironwoods and 5 closed at the Ritz Carlton Residences.
• 2021 was the busiest year for transaction volume on MLS records for the Ridge, Bay Villas, Golf Villas and Montage. It was the busiest year since 2003 at Coconut Grove and the busiest since 2004 at the Ironwoods.

Digging into the Condo Numbers

The Kapalua Condo market didn’t fully kick into gear until early 2021. Market activity more closely resembled the activity in other condo markets around the island. A modest uptick in activity in late 2020 followed by frenzied activity after the new year. While activity slowed a little in the second half of the year, sales volumes for Kapalua condos did not dip to the same extent as the home market. Forty-six percent of all condo sales occurred in the second half of 2021 compared to only 31% of home sales. While supply shrank as the year went on, there was still enough supply available to meet the considerable demand.

Kapalua Land

I usually don’t spend too much time discussing land sales when I provide these community level market updates. That said, the 2021 Kapalua land market can’t be ignored. The increase in transaction volume compared to 2020 was bigger than any other segment of the Kapalua market.

Notable Land Sale Numbers

• There were 60 lots sold in Kapalua during 2021. That calculates to a 750% increase in transaction volume compared to 2020!
• The 60 sales is almost 1/4 of the 247 all time sales in Kapalua reported on the MLS.
• Mahana Estates led the way with 42 closed transactions. These were new developer sales.
• Honolua Ridge saw the second most sales activity with 11 sales. Realtors reported 5 sales in Plantation Estates and 2 sales in Pineapple Hill Estates.
• The median price of lots sold is $995,000. The average price is $1,156,000.
• The highest priced sale closed for $2,600,000. The 2.7 acre lot in Plantation Estates offers beautiful views towards Honolua Bay.
• The lowest priced lot closed for $700,000 in Mahana Estates.

Looking Behind the Land Numbers

This was the year of the great Mahana Estates land rush. At the start of the pandemic, I don’t think anyone would have predicted this development would sell out by the end of 2021. Market response for was tepid the first few years the development was on the market. One lot sold in 2019 and two in 2020. There were a couple of different days in February where 3 lots closed in a day. It will be interesting to watch this development evolve and build out. There were a fair share of bulk purchases among this year’s Mahana Estates Sales. Were those land speculators, spec builders or long term holds?

The 18 non-Mahana Ridge sales are nothing to sneeze at. Those 18 sales alone are more than any one year since 2005. The lack of inventory in the home market during parts of 2021 definitely pushed some buyers to build.

2022 Market Outlook

Inventory, or lack thereof, appears to be the biggest market driver to start 2022. At the time of this post, there are only 6 active Kapalua Homes for Sale. Three additional homes are under contract. As of right now, there are only 12 active Kapalua Condo listings. It is worth noting that only 2 of the active condo listings are priced for less than $2,000,000. An additional 12 condos are currently under contract. Land is even more scarce. There is only one lot for sale in Kapalua. An additional 9 lots are under contract.

It’s safe to say that 2022 shouldn’t threaten the record sales volumes of 2021. The question is whether we will see any inventory relief during the year. Will some of the people remote working list their homes if they go back to the mainland? Will the high prices entice any sellers to come to market?

What about demand? As of right now, demand appears to be pretty strong for the limited inventory available. That is putting upward pressure on pricing. Looking forward, are there any other threats to demand looming on the horizon? There is a lot of discussion about rising interest rates and their impact on the national real estate market. There are arguments on both sides, but a lot of economists seem to be downplaying the potential impact on buyer demand due to the acute supply issues. That said, you would think the impact might be even less in Kapalua where 62% of last year’s sales were cash.

I would argue that state of the overall economy and the trajectory of the stock market are likely to have a bigger impact. Over the years, we’ve noted something of a correlation between sales volume in the resort communities and the stock market. Good years for the Dow means more financial power for discretionary purchases like second homes.

The last question is whether we might see any buyer resistance on pricing. In particular, I wonder about the impact in the vacation rental condo market. Maui has always been a place where more people bought for love than rental returns. That said, the recent price increases resulted in even smaller cap rates. Will the combination of limited returns on higher purchase prices shrink the buyer pool at all? Thus far, that doesn’t seem to be the case.

Contact The Maui Real Estate Team

Contact The Maui Real Estate team if you are considering buying or selling property in Kapalua. We would welcome the chance to discuss market conditions specific to your interests.

I challenge you to find a segment of the Maui Real Estate market that experienced a more drastic reversal of fortune over the last 12 months than vacation rental condos. With tourism shut down starting in April of 2020, demand for vacation rental condos shrank rapidly over the spring and summer. With no rental revenue to offset costs and economic forecasts calling for a slow rebound in tourism, many owners opted to sell. Inventory rose steadily through spring, summer and early fall. On October 15, 2020, the state rescinded the mandatory quarantine rules for incoming travelers. Residents and vacationers who tested negative could avoid the Covid vaccine. This marked the first step in a gradual shift in the market.

For the first couple of months after tourism reopened, visitor numbers were a fraction of what the island experienced pre-Covid. That said, buyer demand ticked upwards and supply slowly ticked downwards as soon as visitors returned. With the start of the new year, a significant shift occurred. Visitor numbers recovered far faster than anticipated. Apparently, many of the visitors were vacation rental condo buyers.

Soaring Sales and Shrinking Inventory

They say a picture is worth a thousand words. These two pictures tell the tale of the Maui Vacation Rental condo market pretty succinctly. Buyers returned to the market in big numbers in early 2021. With a pretty healthy inventory of condos to choose from, the volume of transactions grew quickly. Buyer activity reached its peak in March with 290 condos under contract. Volume started to dip in April. While there was a minor uptick in May, the number of properties under contract continues to fall.

The healthy inventory of condos in January and February quickly gave way to scarcity. A ravenous buyer pool quickly chewed through much of the inventory. Anecdotally, I started to get a lot of e-mails from other Realtors beating the bushes searching for unlisted properties in late March and April. The inventory continued to fall through late Spring and the summer. The contrast between this summer and last summer is pretty stark. While many popular condo complexes had double digit inventory in the summer of 2020, most currently have a handful of active listings at most. The overall condo inventory is less than 25% of last summer.

Shrinking inventory is in turn impacting the volume of properties under contract. There are far less active condos for sale now than there were that went under contract in March back in the peak of the market. It is difficult to compare demand now compared to demand back in the late winter and early spring. Anecdotally, it feels like demand is down some. That said, with such limited supply market dynamics feel similar to the spring when demand and supply were both higher. Plain and simple, it is a strong sellers market.

Strong Demand Plus Declining Inventory Equals Rising Prices

With strong demand and dwindling supply, it’s not surprising to see the trajectory of prices. While median prices on island tend to fluctuate based in part on the composition of condos sold within a given month, there are clear signs of price increases. The median price of the vacation rental condos sold in August of 2020 was $600,000. The median price of vacation rental condos sold in August of 2021 is $747,500.

Other Notable Numbers From the 2021 Maui Vacation Rental Condo Market

• There were 880 vacation rental condos sold on Maui between January 1, 2021 and August 25th, 2021. That is a 221% increase in activity compared to the same period of 2020.
• The average price of condos sold between January 1, 2021 and August 25th is $1,079,000 and the median price is $715,000.
• The lowest priced vacation rental condo to close sold for $110,000. That was a leasehold, oceanfront, one bedroom at Maui Sands.
• The highest priced transaction for the year to date closed for $14,250,000. This was for a 3 bedroom, 3.5 bathroom, direct beachfront unit at Wailea Beach Villas.
• There was a lot of activity in the higher price ranges of the vacation rental condo market. The Wailea Beach Villas sale was one of two transactions that closed over $10,000,000. It was one of nineteen sales over $5,000,000 and one of ninety-two sales over $2,000,000.
• Kihei was the busiest market with 278 closes.
• Kapalua saw the biggest increase in activity of any area of the island compared to the same period of 2020. The 80 closes as of August 25th are a 615% increase in activity over the same period of 2020.
• Kamaole Sands was the busiest individual condo development for sales. There were 33 condos sold for the year as of August 25th. Honua Kai was the next busiest with 31 condos sold.

Market Outlook for Buyers

As mentioned above, scarcity is a challenge for buyers in this market. The summer did not bring any inventory relief. July and August had the fewest new condo listings since April of 2020. It will be interesting to see if we see more inventory in the fall. Mainland markets are seeing a slow increase in inventory. Is our lack of inventory a reflection of different dynamics in play on Maui, or are we just seeing some lag before we catch up to trends on the mainland?

Might we also see a decrease in demand? A report from Redfin in June indicated demand for second and vacation homes started to shrink in the spring. They cited a variety of factors including decreased affordability and tighter underwriting standards. They also indicated that many that intended to buy a second home already made their purchase.

I can see where affordability could start to impact demand on Maui. Price increases over the year are significant. Those looking for strong cap rates are likely to be discouraged. While rents are up some this year thanks to strong demand, they aren’t quite keeping pace with appreciation. Buyers more focused on cap rate rather than personal use of the condos will be less likely to buy in the current market.

Last but not least, the adverse impact of Covid is not over. Cases are up sharply in Hawaii and hospitals are strained. Some tourists are heeding the governor’s calls to delay visits due to the recent surge. Hotels are reporting cancellations over the next two months. Will that dampen demand at all?

Market Outlook for Sellers

The market outlook for sellers is pretty clear. There is still good to strong demand and inventory is limited. Prices are up. If you aren’t using your condo or you are just looking to cash out, this is a good time to sell. It is worth noting that while the market is supporting strong appreciation, it is still quite possible to overprice your property. Approximately 53% of the current active listings are on the market for over 30 days. If you want to sell quickly, it still makes sense to look at recent comparable sales when formulating a pricing strategy.

Contact The Maui Real Estate Team

Contact The Maui Real Estate Team if you are interested in buying or selling a vacation rental condo on Maui. For buyers, we would be happy to review current inventory options in your price range and keep our ears open for unlisted properties. For sellers, we would welcome the opportunity to give you a free broker’s price opinion on your condo. We look forward to being of assistance.

I haven’t quite reclaimed my weekly posting mojo hence the title of this post. That said, I wanted to look at sales activity for the seven day period between December 23rd and 29th. I also wanted to highlight some of the numbers from December 16th-22nd. That was a pretty extraordinary week for real estate activity on Maui. Keep reading for notable numbers from those 14 days.

A Quick Recap of December 16th-22nd

While it may not be getting its own post, this week can’t go without mention. It was far and away the busiest seven day period of 2020. That includes the pre-pandemic market. While it isn’t unusual for us to be outperforming pre-pandemic numbers, the weeks right before Christmas don’t typically see robust market activity. The winter time off island buyers tend to become more active right after Christmas. On island buyers tend to be more focused on the holidays than home buying.

Here are some notable numbers from the 16th-22nd.

• There were 86 new pending sales. That is 21% higher than the previous high for 2020. It is 56% more activity than the same seven day period of 2019.
• The home market was a big driver for this robust week of activity. The 40 new weekly pending home sales is a high for the year.
• Heightened activity at higher price points also played a role. An impressive 11 properties went pending listed over $2,000,000 including 5 over $6,000,000. Of note, 2 homes subsequently fell out of contract.
• The 16th-22nd also saw a lot of high end sales with 9 transactions closing for more than $2,000,000. That includes a $19,000,000 oceanfront sale in Makena. That comes on the heels of an oceanfront estate in Kapalua that Closed for $24,000,000 the week prior. That sale was the highest ever in West Maui.

Needless to say, the 16th-22nd was an extremely busy week for buyers. Now on to our latest seven day tracking period.

New Pending Sales for December 23-29th

Maui Realtors reported 56 new pending sales over the seven day period between December 23rd and December 29th. This is a 35% drop in activity from the the extremely busy seven days prior. That said, it is 65% higher than the same seven day period of 2019. It is worth remembering that this seven day period includes Christmas. The drastic increase over last year provides some context for the high demand this year.

Notable Numbers From The Pending Sales Between December 22nd-28th.

• The 56 pending sales include 23 homes, 30 condos and 3 lots.
• The 30 condo sales include 16 vacation rentals . There are 4 additional condos located in resort areas that prohibit vacation rentals.
• Seven properties listed for more than $2,000,000 went under contract. They include 5 homes and 2 condos.

Closed Transactions Between December 22nd and 28th

Maui Realtors reported 55 sales over the seven day period between December 23rd and December 29th. This is 21% fewer transactions than the seven days prior. It is 62% higher than the same seven day period of 2019. As with the pending sales, we would expect lower numbers compared to the week prior. There is one less day for recorded sales, and some sellers and buyers would want to avoid closing right around Christmas. That said, the 2019 numbers provide some context as to how busy things were comparatively.

New Listings December 23rd-29th

Maui Realtors listed 40 properties in the seven day period between December 23rd and 29th. That is 34% fewer properties than the seven days prior. It is 5% more new listings than the same seven day period of 2019. It is not a big surprise that this is a quieter week for new inventory. Listings that come to market right around the holiday may not get as much visibility with buyers.

Of the 40 new listings, only 12 are homes. This is quite a bit less than the 20 that went under contract. Scarcity of inventory remains a big factor in the single family home market as we enter the new year.

The new listings between the 23rd and 29th included 27 condos. This is also below the 30 condos that went under contract. While there is more condo inventory than home inventory available, buyers may find limited inventory depending on where they are searching.

There was just 1 new land listing to hit the market between the 23rd and the 29th. The land market saw a slight decrease in inventory over December. While there is variability based on geography, the land market also suffers to an extent from a lack of options.

Contact The Maui Real Estate Team

As we enter the new year, buyer activity remains strong and supply limited. At the same time, there seems to be growing instability in the world with Covid numbers continuing to rise and significant political unrest. Will that impact the market? Thus far, the Maui market remains resilient. If anything there is an argument that the relative safe haven of Maui may be appealing to buyers. We continue to work hard for buyers and sellers in these challenging times. Contact The Maui Real Estate Team if you are looking to buy or sell property on Maui. We look forward to talking to you and learning more about your real estate needs.