Welcome to our 25th edition of the Maui Market Musings. This latest edition focuses on the market activity during March, and the resulting levels of inventory at the end of the month. Being that these are long posts, I will skip the pleasantries and cut straight to the numbers.

March Market Activity

The tables below show new Inventory, new pending sales and closed transactions for the month of March. The previous five years are shown for additional context. One thing to note, we started adding these charts just a few months ago. This is the first time the charts will start capturing data from the very start of when the pandemic started to influence the market. The influence will be particularly pronounced with next month’s charts.

	March 23	March 22	March 21	March 20	March 19	March 18
Homes	70	119	159	88	161	118
Condos	99	188	190	181	157	191

Maui entered the month of March with a shortage of inventory and it left the month of March with even fewer properties for sale. The 70 homes listed is 41% below last year. The closest March for new inventory in the previous five years is March 2020, and there was still 25% more inventory that month. Keep in mind, listing activity for homes dropped to next to nothing in the second half of March 2020 as stay at home orders went out and tourism closed.

The 99 new condos that came on the market in March is 47% below last March. The next closest recent March was in 2019. The 157 condos listed that month is 59% higher than this month. As a side note, March 2020 was a big month for condo listings. While people were reticent to list their homes, many opted to list their now vacant vacation rental condos.

March New Pending Sales

	March 23	March 22	March 21	March 20	March 19	March 18
Homes	70	100	144	60	106	112
Condos	85	169	284	57	149	204

While new listing activity is slow, buyer demand also remains slow. New home pendings came in 30% lower than last year. They are 34% lower than March of 2019. They only exceed March of 2020 when pending sales dwindled to a trickle in the second half of the month. There were also quite a few pending sales that cancelled.

March Closed Transactions

	March 23	March 22	March 21	March 20	March 19	March 18
Homes	72	98	118	82	90	100
Condos	115	183	228	157	152	126

The gap in closed home transactions with the previous five years wasn’t quite as extreme. Home sales were about 27% behind last year. They came in 20% and 28% behind March of 2018 and 2019 respectively. They were closest to March of 2020, albeit some of that is due to transactions that either delayed closing or cancelled at the onset of Covid.

The closed condo sales came in 37% behind March of 22. The gap with pre-covid years was not quite as substantial. This March’s numbers came in 24% and 9% below 2019 and 2018 respectively. That 2018 year was particularly slow for condo sales. It is notable that the March 2023 sales received a boost from 14 new developer closes at Paradise Ridge Estates. These closes came from contracts written between 2018 and February of 2021.

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We are starting off 2023 with volume 22 of our market musings. Early January means that we are in the beginning of what is traditionally our peak real estate season on Maui. This post helps to give a sense of recent market demand and current inventory levels as we enter into what should be the busiest 3-4 months of the year for real estate transactions on island.

December Market Activity

We start things off by taking a look back at December. How many new listings came to market, went under contract and sold? Activity from the five previous Decembers are given for additional context.

	12/22	12/21	12/20	12/19	12/18	12/17
Homes	89	98	115	121	120	140
Condos	76	162	152	143	173	173

New inventory during the month of December was below normal. The number of new listings is anywhere between 25% and 36% lower than what we would anticipate in the pre-Covid Decembers of 2017-2019. This December’s home inventory benefited from an influx of new listings in the Hoku’ula subdivision in Upcountry Maui towards the end of the month. Were it not for those 19 listings, new inventory would be even further below what’s considered normal.

New condo inventory was significantly lower than usual in December. It is anywhere between 47% and 56% below the December new inventory of 2017-2019. Whether it’s the golden handcuffs of low interest rates, the lack of potential replacement properties or just loving their place on Maui, people are holding on to their condos for now.

	12/22	12/21	12/20	12/19	12/18	12/17
Homes	51	69	117	74	75	75
Condos	53	136	139	113	110	108

While new inventory was low, buyer demand also remained low in December. The number of new pending home sales came in at anywhere between 32-33% below what we saw in the three years prior to the start of Covid.

New Pending condo sales came in between 45% and 52% below the activity seen over the years prior to Covid. The slow down in new condo inventory and sales activity is particularly pronounced over the last few months.

	12/22	12/21	12/20	12/19	12/18	12/17
Homes	64	113	106	96	91	89
Condos	67	171	170	125	122	140

The closed transactions in December give us some insight to market demand a little earlier in the fall. Most of these closes came out of contracts agreed to in October and November. Home sales were between 28 and 33% lower than a typical Pre-Covid December. Condo sales in December are between 45 and 53% lower than the three Decembers prior to the start of Covid. Of course, this December’s home and condo sales are way below 2020 and 2021 sales volume.

End of December Maui Inventory

Inventory, or lack thereof, continues to be a significant factor in our market. While new inventory remains low, quieter buyer activity over the last 2-3 months allowed for modest growth in the overall number of properties for sale. That said, we still have a lot less inventory that what was more typical pre-Covid. The charts below provide detail on active and pending listings by price point and community.

End of December Home Inventory

	10/31/2022		11/30/2022		12/31/2022
	Active	Pending	Active	Pending	Active	Pending
<$750,000	9	15	5	14	6 (+1)	10 (-4)
$750,000-$999,999	29	29	31	25	25 (-6)	28 (+3)
$1,000,000-$1,499,999	64	28	61	28	78 (+17)	20 (-8)
$1,500,000-$1,999,999	41	13	28	17	36 (+8)	11 (-6)
$2,000,000-$2,999,999	35	10	34	11	37 (+3)	12 (-1)
$3,000,000-$4,999,999	32	7	32	7	31 (-1)	9 (+2)
$5,000,000-$9,999,999	26	5	23	9	27 (+4)	8 (-1)
$10,000,000-$19,999,999	9	0	14	0	14	0
$20,000,000+	3	1	5	1	4 (-1)	2 (+1)
Totals	248	108	233	112	258 (+25)	100 (-12)

	10/31/2022		11/30/2022		12/31/2022
	Active	Pending	Active	Pending	Active	Pending
Haiku	28	9	29	10	29	7 (-3)
Hana	10	0	10	0	10	1 (+1)
Ka’anapali	7	2	9	2	9	3 (+1)
Kahului	16	16	16	13	16	13
Kapalua	6	0	5	3	5	3
Kihei	40	11	31	15	39 (+8)	7 (-8)
Kula	20	11	22	12	21 (-1)	10 (-2)
Lahaina	22	13	15	13	18 (+3)	11 (-2)
Makawao	13	9	11	7	35 (+24)	4 (-3)
Napili/Kahana/Honokowai	11	6	9	3	13 (+2)	3 (-3)
Pukalani	8	3	10	3	7 (-3)	3
Sprecks/Paia	8	2	7	3	9 (+2)	1 (-2)
Wailea	11	4	16	4	13 (-3)	6 (+2)
Wailuku	40	21	32	19	25 (-7)	25 (+6)

Notable Numbers from the End of December Home Inventory

The information above is provided with the usual framework. The home inventory data by price point includes all of the island of Maui, but excludes the islands of Molokai and Lanai. The district information is limited to the districts and communities with the most activity.

• For the second month in a row, the inventory of active home listings increased on Maui. Active inventory increased 10.7%. A good portion of the bump in inventory can be traced to the 19 new developer listings in the Hoku’ula subdivision.
• Changes in active inventory varied by price point. Five price points increased in inventory, three decreased and one was unchanged. The price range with the biggest increase in inventory was between $1,000,000 and $2,000,000. Again, that was largely due to Hoku’ula. It was notable that the $750,000-$999,999 price range saw the biggest drop in active listings from the month prior. Inventory in that segment increased steadily in the the previous three months. With a higher percentage of financed buyers in this price point, the spike in interest rates earlier in the fall curtailed buyer demand.
• Overall Pending home inventory decreased from the end of November. The number of pending homes dipped 10.71% between November 30th and December 31st.
• By price point, pending sales increased in three price ranges, decreased in five and remained unchanged in three price points. The biggest increase in pending sales occurred in the $750,000-$999,999 range. Perhaps recent decreases in interest rates provided some relief to buyers in that price range. The biggest decrease in pending sales occurred in the $1,000,000-$2,000,000 price range.
• At a community level, inventory trends continued to vary. Inventory increased in 5 communities, decreased in 4 and remained unchanged in 5 districts. The biggest increase by far was in Makawao (the Hoku’ula effect) followed by Kihei. Wailuku inventory decreased the most.
• Pending sales decreased in most communities. Kihei pending sales decreased the most month to month. Wailuku experienced the biggest increase in pending sales.

End of December Maui Condo Inventory

	10/31/2022		11/30/2022		12/31/2022
	Active	Pending	Active	Pending	Active	Pending
<$250,000	2	4	1	4	2 (+1)	2 (-2)
$250,000-$499,999	19	12	19	14	12 (-7)	16 (+2)
$500,000-$749,999	32	35	43	33	38 (-5)	25 (-8)
$750,000-$999,999	27	27	28	29	42 (+14)	27 (-2)
$1,000,000-$1,499,999	21	30	31	24	32 (+1)	21 (-1)
$1,500,000-$1,999,999	14	33	21	28	26 (+5)	29 (+1)
$2,000,000-$2,999,999	15	40	18	39	18	36 (-3)
$3,000,000-$4,999,999	10	17	11	17	10 (-1)	18 (+1)
$5,000,000-$9,999,999	11	1	12	2	14 (+2)	0 (-2)
$10,000,000+	3	1	3	0	4 (+1)	0
Total	154	200	187	190	198 (+11)	174 (-16)

	10/31/2022		11/30/2022		12/31/2022
	Active	Pending	Active	Pending	Active	Pending
Ka’anapali	18	9	25	4	22 (-3)	9 (+5)
Kahului	5	5	5	5	4 (-1)	3 (-2)
Kapalua	12	4	14	2	12 (-2)	3 (+1)
Kihei	43	60	53	61	61 (+8)	45 (-16)
Lahaina	8	4	14	8	11 (-3)	12 (+4)
Ma’alaea	3	6	4	8	5 (+1)	5 (-3)
Napili/Kahana/Honokowai	33	17	39	19	50 (+11)	16 (-3)
Wailea/Makena	19	85	23	85	27 (+4)	79 (-6)
Wailuku	11	10	8	8	4 (-4)	4 (-4)

Notable Numbers from the End of December Condo Inventory

Again, the tables above come with the usual framework for our end of month inventory. The table by price point includes all condos on Maui, but it does not include condos on the islands of Molokai or Lanai. The table with districts is limited to the communities with the most activity.

Pending sales at La’i Loa at Wailea Hills skew the data in Wailea and the $1,500,000-$5,000,000 price ranges. There are 75 pending sales in that development based on contracts penned in 2020 and the first quarter of 2021. Pending sales in La’i Loa won’t start to close until sometime in the fall of 2023. Paradise Ridge Estates in Kihei also skews the data albeit to a lesser extent. There are 18 pending sales with that development based on contracts penned between 2018 and the first quarter of 2022. Overall, 53.44% of the current pending condo inventory is in La’i Loa or Paradise Ridge Estates.

• For the third straight month, end of month inventory of active condo listings grew. It increased 5.88% from the end of November.
• Looking at the inventory by price point, there continues to be a lot of variability. While most price points saw modest changes, the inventory of $250,000-$749,999 condos decreased by a decent margin. The inventory of condos priced between $750,000 and $999,999 increased substantially. There was also a bump in inventory between $1,500,000 and $1,999,999.
• End of the month pending condo sales dropped for the third straight time. Pending sales dropped 8.43%.
• Most price ranges saw a decrease in pending sales by the end of the month. The $500,000-$749,999 price range saw the biggest drop in activity followed by the $2,000,000-$2,999,999 price point.
• At a community level, most locations saw modest changes in inventory. There were exceptions. Kihei and the Napili, Kahana and Honokowai MLS district saw pretty big increases. Ka’anapali and Wailuku both saw notable decreases in inventory.
• Most communities saw a decrease in pending sales by the end of December. Kihei saw the biggest decrease in pending sales. While Wailea’s decrease was smaller, it is notable that the vast majority of the remaining pending sales are longer term contracts at La’i Loa. Only 4 of the 79 pendings in Wailea at the end of the month were condos outside of that development.
• The West Maui communities of Ka’anapali and Lahaina were both notable for their increase in pending condo sales.

How Quickly Are Things Going Under Contract

We started tracking the percentage of properties going under contract in ten days or less all the way back in February. At the time, the market was in a frenzy and 56% of all new listings went under contract within that first ten days of coming to market. We’ve seen things slow considerably since that time. I took a look at properties that came to market between December 13th and December 20th. Of the 35 listings that came to market, 25.71% went under contract within the first ten days. That is actually up from when we last checked in November when only 15.9% of all properties went under contract.

Looking specifically at homes, 20% of the homes listed between December 13 and 20th went under contract within 10 days or less. Last year during the same period, 15.38% of new home listings went under contract in 10 days or less. In 2019, 20% of homes went under contract in 10 days or less.

Of the condos that came to market between December 13th and 20th, 30% went under contract within 10 days. For perspective, 41.51% of all condos listed between December 13-20th, 2021 went under contract in ten days or less. In 2019, 15.22% of condos listed during that same time period went under contract in 10 days or less.

My biggest takeaway from these numbers is that we are well off the frenzy of 2021 and the first quarter of 2022. Response to new listings is closer to what we had pre-Covid. Back then, quality properties priced well tended to go quickly. That continues to be the case today. Unless there is a lot of push back from the readership or we see a clear shift in market conditions, I am going to retire this metric from future musings posts.

Price Reductions

While market activity remained slow in December, it doesn’t seem to be fazing too many sellers. As of December 31st, only 33.33% of all active listings had one or more price reduction. That is down from 37.02% on November 30th and 39.92 on October 31st. It was all the way up at 42.21% in late September.

The condo market is seeing even fewer price reductions. As of New Year’s eve, only 25.25% of all active condo listings were reduced in price one or more times. That is down slightly from 25.53% on November 30th and 29.41% on October 31st.

I surmise that low inventory and seller hopes for a seasonal increase in buyers has led more seller to stick their guns on pricing.

Quick Thoughts On the Market as We Enter Maui Peak Buying Season

Needless to say, the trajectory of the market isn’t entirely clear at the start of buyer’s season. Inventory is up from last winter, but still well below normal. Demand is lower, but it should potentially increase just due to seasonality. Affordability is down significantly from this time last year, but there is still a lot of cash in our market and rates are better than they were earlier in the fall. Add it all together and it makes prognostication a challenge. About the only thing I feel comfortable predicting is continued variability in conditions by price range and by location around the island. We will continue to provide market observations as buyer season progresses on the blog.

A Little Maui Beauty

Contact The Maui Real Estate Team

With the uncertainty in the Maui Real Estate market, quality representation is more important now then ever. Contact the Maui Real Estate Team. Our experienced agents welcome the chance to discuss your real estate needs. We look forward to being of assistance.

It’s been a few weeks since our last Maui Market Musings. With that in mind, this post delves into the numbers that help cast a light on current Maui market conditions. Since our last post, interests rates surged higher again putting additional pressure on affordability for some buyers. This post looks at what impacts if any higher rates are having on the Maui market. We also look at current inventory levels by price point and community. Other subjects for discussion include cancellations, price reductions and the recent market response to new listings. This is a longer read so you may want to grab your favorite caffeinated beverage before proceeding further. It is not advisable to operate heavy equipment after reading.

Interest Rates

It’s hard not to lead with interest rates when discussing the state of the market. Rates continued their climb since our last update. While they fluctuate daily, they’ve been somewhere between 6.5% and just over 7% over the last few weeks. Needless, to say, we are a long way from the sub 3% interest rates we saw during periods of 2021. For those hoping that this increase is going to be short lived, the recent comments of Fed Chair Jerome Powell suggest that is unlikely to be the case. Powell said higher rates are needed to bring about a “correction” and balance to the housing market. While the Fed doesn’t directly control mortgage rates, they can exert a strong influence with changes to the Federal Funds rate.

Higher rates (even rates lower than current rates) were already impacting real estate markets around the country. Values are starting to retreat in many markets, particularly in some of the frothiest markets of the last couple of years.

So what kind of impact are we seeing on Maui from higher rates? There are a couple of numbers that we look at in this musings that might reflect the impact of higher rates. Pending sales is one with decreased affordability likely to impact the number of buyers. Price decreases is another metric that would or should reflect sellers adjusting to decreased buyer demand. Keep reading to see what those numbers look like recently on Maui.

Maui Home Inventory

	7/31/22		8/31/22		9/30/22
	Active	Pending	Active	Pending	Active	Pending
<$750,000	11	14	11	11	7 (-4)	14 (+3)
$750,000-$999,999	25	62	31	44	21 (-10)	46 (+2)
$1,000,000-$1,499,999	65	34	58	28	45 (-13)	33 (+5)
$1,500,000-$1,999,999	41	19	46	13	44 (-2)	17 (+4)
$2,000,000-$2,999,999	31	19	36	12	33 (-3)	12
$3,000,000-$4,999,999	25	9	32	11	35 (+3)	11
$5,000,000-$9,999,999	24	7	26	5	27 (+1)	6 (+1)
$10,000,000-$19,999,999	12	0	11	0	11	0
$20,000,000+	5	1	5	0	2 (-3)	1 (+1)
Totals	239	156	256	124	225 (-31)	140 (+16)

	7/31/22		8/31/22		9/30/22
	Active	Pending	Active	Pending	Active	Pending
Haiku	22	11	20	7	24 (+4)	7
Hana	4	1	8	2	9 (+1)	1 (-1)
Ka’anapali	10	7	10	4	10	3 (-1)
Kahului	13	21	11	25	7 (-4)	26 (+1)
Kapalua	5	1	4	1	4	0 (-1)
Kihei	48	14	44	16	35 (-9)	16
Kula	19	16	24	10	22 (-2)	11 (+1)
Lahaina	18	14	23	7	21 (-2)	10 (+3)
Makawao	14	9	15	11	13 (-2)	11
Napili/Kahana/Hono…	10	6	14	4	9 (-5)	7 (+3)
Pukalani	7	6	8	5	6 (-2)	7 (+2)
Spreckelsville/Paia	10	2	15	3	10 (-5)	4 (+1)
Wailea/Makena	15	5	16	4	10 (-6)	8 (+4)
Wailuku	39	35	41	22	36 (-5)	26 (+4)

End of September Home Inventory Review

The information above is provided with the usual framework. The home inventory data by price point includes all of the island of Maui, but excludes the islands of Molokai and Lanai. The district information is limited to the districts with the most activity.

• The inventory of active homes fell 12.2% between the last day of August and the last day of September.
• Active inventory decreased in all price ranges below $3,000,000. There was a modest increase in inventory between $3,000,000 and $10,000,000, no change between $10,000,000 and $19,999,999, and a decrease in inventory above $20,000,000.
• Pending sales activity increased 12.9% over last month! This is a surprising reverse of recent trends. It is an especially big surprise with the recent mortgage rate increases.
• The biggest increase in pending sales occurred below $2,000,000. Above that price range the number of pending sales was either steady or increased by one. No price ranges experienced a decrease in pending sales activity. It is worth noting that the $10,000,000 to $19,999,999 range had no pending sales as of the end of August and still has no pending sales.
• Looking at the different communities around the island, only two communities saw an increase in inventory. Haiku and Hana both saw modest increases in active listings. Anecdotally, it seems like some sellers in these windward communities try to get homes on to the market before the start of the rainy season later in the fall. I haven’t taken the plunge to determine if there is any quantitative evidence to support that claim.
• After seeing big growth in inventory in late Spring and early Summer, Kihei saw the biggest decrease in active inventory for the second month in a row. Notably, the total number of pending sales in Kihei did not change. With that in mind, I decided to look a little closer at the Kihei market activity. While Kihei added 8 new pending sales this month, 7 sales closed, 8 listings cancelled and 2 expired. Only 4 new listings came to market. Based on those numbers, the reason for the decrease in inventory is multi-faceted. The cancellations could be a sign of seller capitulation (more on that below) or just sellers taking a break. We shall see.
• Wailea and Wailuku are the two communities that saw the biggest increase in pending sales with 4 net new pendings. Wailea’s increase is a little more notable due to the percentage increase in pending sales. It’s worth mentioning that 4 of the 5 overall new pending sales in Wailea and Makena reduced prices before going under contract. There’s something to be said for listening to market feedback and adjusting price.

Maui Condo Inventory

	7/31/2022		8/31/2022		9/30/2022
	Active	Pending	Active	Pending	Active	Pending
<$250,000	1	8	1	6	1	3 (-3)
$250,000-$499,999	11	23	14	17	11 (-3)	16 (-1)
$500,000-$749,999	43	39	34	43	28 (-6)	40 (-3)
$750,000-$999,999	44	43	33	43	33	33 (-10)
$1,000,000-$1,499,999	30	31	29	31	19 (-10)	36 (+5)
$1,500,000-$1,999,999	30	33	24	35	18 (-6)	34 (-1)
$2,000,000-$2,999,999	20	36	22	38	14 (-8)	43 (+5)
$3,000,000-$4,999,999	12	18	12	19	10 (-2)	17 (-2)
$5,000,000-$9,999,999	10	3	8	1	7 (-1)	0 (-1)
$10,000,000+	4	0	4	0	4	0
Totals	205	234	181	233	145 (-36)	222 (-11)

	7/31/2022		8/31/2022		9/30/2022
	Active	Pending	Active	Pending	Active	Pending
Ka’anapali	24	13	25	16	17 (-8)	14 (-3)
Kahului	2	8	3	7	3	4 (-3)
Kapalua	10	10	11	6	10 (-1)	4 (-2)
Kihei	67	60	50	63	48 (-2)	61 (-2)
Lahaina	16	8	9	10	5 (-4)	7 (-3)
Ma’alaea	5	6	3	6	4 (+1)	4 (-2)
Napili/Kahana/Hono	40	34	45	25	29 (-16)	30 (+5)
Wailea	25	82	24	86	19 (-5)	86
Wailuku	14	13	9	14	8 (-1)	12 (-2)

End of September Condo Inventory Review

Again, the tables above come with the usual framework for our end of month inventory. The table by price point includes all condos on Maui, but it does not include condos on the islands of Molokai or Lanai. The table with districts is limited to the communities with the most activity. Pending sales at La’i Loa at Wailea Hills skew the data in Wailea and the $1,500,000-$5,000,000 price ranges. There are 75 pending sales in that development based on contracts penned in 2020 and the first quarter of 2021. Pending sales in La’i Loa won’t start to close until sometime in 2023. Paradise Ridge Estates in Kihei also skews the data albeit to a lesser extent. There are 18 pending sales with that development based on contracts penned between 2018 and the first quarter of 2022. Overall, 41.89% of current pending sales are long term new developer contracts.

• The number of active condo listings at the end of September is 19.89% lower than at the end of August.
• Active inventory decreased in seven out of ten price ranges in the table above. Net inventory was unchanged in the remaining 3 ranges.
• Pending condo sales dropped 5.2% compared to the end of August. Is this a reflection of reduced inventory, reduced demand or both? It’s hard to say. That said, I did get a surprising number of e-mails last month from fellow Realtors seeking out condo inventory for buyers struggling to find what they want.
• Pending sales dropped in seven of ten price ranges. Pending sales increased between $1,000,000-$1,499,999 and $2,000,000 and $2,999,999.
• Ma’alaea is the only community where inventory increased last month albeit with just one more active listing than at the end of August. Kahului’s inventory is unchanged.
• Napili, Kahana and Honokowai experienced the biggest decrease in inventory with 16 fewer listings at the end of this month. It was also the only community where pending sales increased. The eighteen new pending sales shows pretty healthy activity. It seems that the increase in pending sales is the biggest driver for the decrease in active listings in this market, but cancelled listings were also a factor. Seven sellers pulled their listings off the market.

Cancelled Listings

September is a transitional month on Maui. The summer tourism season is over and we are still a few months from our peak winter season. Anecdotally, I always thought of this as a month where some sellers will opt to take a pause from selling their home only to relist when it gets closer to winter tourism season. With the sharp decrease in active listings this month, I wanted to look closer at cancelled and expired listings. Is September actually a bigger month for cancellations historically? If so, how does this year compare to previous years? Is there anything that can be gleaned from this September’s high cancellations?

	2022	2021	2019	2018	2017
January	27	23	48	37	55
February	21	9	41	43	34
March	18	15	39	36	58
April	19	17	37	39	77
May	13	22	48	40	89
June	19	16	31	27	53
July	17	22	40	30	58
August	27	16	25	44	62
September	40 (1)	28 (2)	39 (t6)	50 (1)	41 (11)
October	TBD	16	37	47	60
November	TBD	30	36	47	60
December	TBD	20	43	29	45

	2022	2021	2019	2018	2017
January	19	55	27	42	55
February	13	54	38	15	34
March	12	54	27	41	58
April	14	35	43	38	77
May	15	21	54	37	89
June	11	20	37	26	53
July	11	16	23	43	58
August	20	19	21	27	62
September	29 (1)	13 (11)	43 (t2)	44 (3)	41 (11)
October	TBD	15	37	49	60
November	TBD	15	40	65	60
December	TBD	11	30	41	45

Before discussing the numbers above, it is worth noting that there is some noise when it comes to cancelled listings. An agent changing brokerages or one brokerage buying another can inflate cancelled listings. The change in brokerages results in cancelled listings immediately replaced by new listings as old listing contracts are cancelled and new contracts created. I noticed some noise in this month’s cancelled home listings. Hoku’ula, a new development Upcountry, cancelled their MLS listings last month and put them back on the market as new listings at a higher price.

With that framework, let’s address the first question that I posed above. Is September a bigger month historically for cancellations? It appears to be one of the biggest months for canceled home listings albeit with some notable exceptions in the chart above. For condos, it is a little more extreme. Some years it is near the top and others near the bottom with no clear cut reason for the variability.

So what does that say about this year? Even without those five Hoku’ula cancellations, September would still be the highest month for home cancellation for the year to date. September is also leading for cancelled condo listings despite rather limited inventory. It’s hard to say definitively if this is strictly seasonal or if any of those cancellations are due to seller capitulation. That said, it would make sense if we start to see some sellers retreat from the market for non-seasonal reasons. Sellers who were fishing for ultra high prices, don’t need to sell or need to borrow at higher rates to buy a new place could all have reason to pull their listing under current conditions.

Price Reductions

Recent increases in interest rates are generating more price reductions nationally. Sellers are reacting to the decreased affordability posed by higher rates. What about the Maui market? Are we seeing similar trends? I looked at price reductions for active inventory on September 29th.

As of the 29th, 95 out of 224 active listings or 42.41% of all properties reduced their price one or more times. As of September 2nd, that numbers was 42.97%. On August 15th, it was 39.67%. While price reductions are up since the early summer, the more recent decrease in price reductions is somewhat surprising in light of the recent increases in rates.

On the condo front, 36 out of 144 active listings reduced their price one or more times. That calculates to 25% of active inventory. That is down from 27.84% on September 2nd and 29.62% of all listings on August 15th.

With inventory shrinking, perhaps sellers are feeling emboldened to stick to their guns on pricing. The higher level of cash and or low inventory levels seem to be making this market less responsive to interest rate changes thus far.

How Quickly Are New Listings Going Under Contract?

Another metric we continue to watch in the musings is how quickly things are going under contract. Specifically, what percentage of listings are going under contract within 10 days or less. We started tracking this in mid-February when the number was right around 56%. That was pretty much the peak of our winter frenzy. For properties that were listed between September 12th and 19th, 34% of all listings went under contract within 10 days. That is actually up from 29.79% between August 10th and 17th.

For home listings, 32.14% of new listings between September 12th and September 19th went under contract within 10 days or less. By comparison, 38.1% of all homes listed between 9/12/21 and 9/19/21 went under contract in 10 days or less. For a pre-covid comparison, 41.18% of all homes listed between 9/12/19 and 9/19/19 went under contract within 10 days or less. It is worth mentioning that 41% is a much higher percentage than other weeks we’ve looked at in 2019. For example, only 19.04% of homes listed between 9/27/2019 and 10/3/2019 went under contract in 10 days or less.

For condo listings, 36.36% of all new listings went under contract within 10 days between September 12th and 19th. Last year, an eye popping 67.74% of condos listed between 9/12 and 9/19 were under contract in ten days or less. In 2019, 27.27% of all condos listed between 9/12 and 9/19 went under contract within 10 days or less.

Overall, the market is way less frenzied than last year. However, properties are going under contract faster than in a “normal” Maui market. There are definitely fewer buyers, but there are enough buyers out there for the limited supply that over one third of the inventory is going under contract quickly.

A Few Closing Thoughts on the State of the Maui Market

The numbers compiled above paint a picture of a more resilient Maui market than one might expect. We actually saw fewer price reductions for homes and condos while pending home sales increased! Not exactly the market response one would predict when interest rates increase to their highest point in 15 or more years. It appears at this point that limited inventory is still having a significant impact on the market despite the rising borrowing costs.

Will that sustain itself through the rest of the year and into early 2023? I was suprised by this month so who knows what the future will hold. It’s likely that the market has yet to feel the full weight of higher interest rates. Add in signs of a slowing economy and our market is facing additional headwinds. Ultimately, the Maui market moving forward will be a balancing act between the impact of higher rates and supply constraints. Conditions well vary around Maui by both price point, location and property type.

With interest rates likely to remain elevated into the immediate future, more real estate economists are anticipating price corrections. Reading beyond the headlines, economists expect variability in market corrections across the country. Rates will be a market driver, as will the state of the economy and local inventory. It’s important not to base market decisions on national headlines, but instead on relevant local data. We plan to continue with our Musings and community market updates so Maui buyers and sellers have the data to make informed decisions.

A Little Maui Beauty to Brighten Your Day

#FridayFeeling: Aloha 🤗💗🌺🏝

NEW dose of #Hawaii #calm: https://t.co/vHfJIYL4Kl

📍 Big Beach, #Maui pic.twitter.com/nuHWkx097S

— Tranquilitee (@MyTranquilitee) September 30, 2022

Contact The Maui Real Estate Team

Questions about the post above? Wondering about conditions in a specific part of the Maui Market? Need assistance buying or selling a property on Maui? Contact The Maui Real Estate Team for assistance. One of our experienced and savvy agents would welcome the chance to sit down with you to discuss your real estate needs.

This is our seventeenth Maui Market Musings. This edition continues to focus on the metrics that give us the best indication of current market conditions. Those three metrics are inventory, price reductions and how quickly properties are going under contract. Discretion was the better part of valor and I am going to hold off on my Kapalua market update for either the next musings or a stand alone post. I imagine people have more to do over the holiday weekend than reading a 3,500 word manuscript on the Maui Real Estate Market. Without further ado…

End of Month Inventory of Maui Single Family Homes

	6/30/22		7/31/22		8/31/22
	Active	Pending	Active	Pending	Active	Pending
<$750,000	6	16	11	14	11	11 (-3)
$750,000-$999,999	32	63	25	62	31 (+6)	44 (-18)
$1,000,000-$1,499,999	43	37	65	34	58 (-7)	28 (-6)
$1,500,000-$1,999,999	44	22	41	19	46 (+5)	13 (-6)
$2,000,000-$2,999,999	34	15	31	19	36 (+5)	12 (-7)
$3,000,000-$4.999,999	27	10	25	9	32 (+7)	11 (+2)
$5,000,000-$9,999,999	23	8	24	7	26 (+2)	5 (-2)
$10,000,000-$19,999,999	13	0	12	0	11 (-1)	0
$20,000,000+	4	1	5	1	5	0
Totals	241	169	239	156	256 (+17)	124 (-32)

	6/30/22		7/31/22		8/31/22
	Active	Pending	Active	Pending	Active	Pending
Haiku	20	13	22	11	20 (-2)	7 (-4)
Hana	4	2	4	1	8 (+4)	2 (+1)
Ka’anapali	11	7	10	7	10	4 (-3)
Kahului	8	27	13	21	11 (-2)	25 (+4)
Kapalua	5	3	5	1	4 (-1)	1
Kihei	45	22	48	14	44 (-4)	16 (+2)
Kula	25	13	19	16	24 (+4)	10 (-6)
Lahaina	20	18	18	14	23 (+5)	7 (-7)
Makawao	13	12	14	9	15 (+1)	11 (+2)
Napili/Kahana/Hono…	12	3	10	6	14 (+4)	4 (-2)
Pukalani	12	7	7	6	8 (+1)	5 (-1)
Spreckelsville/Paia	11	2	10	2	15 (+5)	3 (+1)
Wailea/Makena	13	4	15	5	16 (+1)	4 (-1)
Wailuku	39	33	39	35	41 (+2)	22 (-13)

End of August Home Inventory Review

The information above is provided with the usual framework. The home inventory data by price point includes all of the island of Maui, but excludes the islands of Molokai and Lanai. The district information is limited to the districts with the most activity.

• The inventory of active home listings on Maui actually increased approximately 7% since the last day of July. This comes on the heels of a decrease in active listings in July.
• Active inventory decreased in only two price ranges.
• Pending sales dipped again. Pending listings are 21% lower than the end of July and 27% below the end of June.
• Pending sales increased in only the $3,000,000 to $4,999,999 price range.
• Looking at the different price ranges, the $750,000-$999,999 price point stands out. Through the market boom of the last couple of years, you could make an argument that this was among the most competitive price points. Needless to say, this is a very different market now. The increase in interest rates reduced affordability for local buyers, and many investors seem to be sitting on the sidelines. As of today, 56% of the active listings in the range reduced their asking price at least once. Sellers are needing to adjust their price to the new realities of the market.
• Looking at the different communities around the island, the month to month shifts in the trajectory of inventory are notable. A number of places where inventory increased between June and July, decreased between July and August and vice versa. I would suspect we might continue to see this pattern moving forward.
• Kihei home inventory is notable for it’s month to month decrease after steady and significant growth in active listings over the previous months.
• Resort market inventory saw limited changes in active inventory. Ka’anapali and Kapalua both have one fewer active listings while Wailea has one more.

End of August Maui Condo Inventory

	6/30/22		7/31/222		8/31/22
	Active	Pending	Active	Pending	Active	Pending
<$250,000	2	8	1	8	1	6 (-2)
$250,000-$499,999	19	25	11	23	14 (+3)	17 (-6)
$500,000-$749,999	31	40	43	39	34 (-9)	43 (+4)
$750,000-$999,999	44	46	44	43	33 (-11)	43
$1,000,000-$1,499,999	29	30	30	31	29 (-1)	31
$1,500,000-$1,999,999	28	34	30	33	24 (-6)	35 (+2)
$2,000,000-$2,999,999	20	36	20	36	22 (+2)	38 (+2)
$3,000,000-$4,999,999	11	25	12	18	12	19 (+1)
$5,000,000-$9,999,999	11	3	10	3	8 (-2)	1 (-2)
$10,000,000+	3	0	4	0	4	0
Totals	199	247	205	234	181 (-24)	233 (-1)

	6/30/2022		7/31/2022		8/31/2022
	Active	Pending	Active	Pending	Active	Pending
Ka’anapali	23	15	24	13	25 (+1)	16 (+3)
Kahului	4	3	2	8	3 (+1)	7 (-1)
Kapalua	12	9	10	10	11 (+1)	6 (-4)
Kihei	55	74	67	60	50 (-17)	63 (+3)
Lahaina	16	5	16	8	9 (-7)	10 (+2)
Ma’alaea	5	5	5	6	3 (-2)	6
Napili/Kahana/Hono	48	34	40	34	45 (+5)	25 (-9)
Wailea	23	85	25	82	24 (-1)	86 (+4)
Wailuku	12	12	14	13	9 (-5)	14 (+1)

End of August Condo Inventory Review

Again, the tables above come with the usual framework for our end of month inventory. The table by price point includes all condos on Maui, but it does not include condos on the islands of Molokai or Lanai. The table with districts is limited to the communities with the most activity. Pending sales at La’i Loa at Wailea Hills skew the data in Wailea and the $1,500,000-$5,000,000 price ranges. There are 75 pending sales in that development based on contracts penned in 2020 and the first quarter of 2021. Pending sales in La’i Loa won’t start to close until sometime in 2023. Paradise Ridge Estates in Kihei also skews the data albeit to a lesser extent. There are 18 pending sales with that development based on contracts penned between 2018 and the first quarter of 2022. Those should start closing in the not too distant future.

• After steadily increasing over the last few months, active condo listings at the end of August dropped 12% from the end of July.
• Pending condo sales were virtually unchanged with only one fewer pending sale at the end of August compared to the end of July.
• Looking at the data by price range, active inventory only increased between $250,000-$499,000 and between $2,000,000 and $2,999,999. The biggest drops in active inventory occurred between $500,000 and $999,999 followed by $1,500,000 to $1,999,999.
• Kihei continues to be one of the more dynamic communities when it comes to inventory. Much like Kihei Home inventory, Kihei Condo inventory dropped significantly since the end of July. That comes on the heels of seeing the largest increase over the months prior. Pendings increased as well. Without doing a really thorough comparison of the month to month inventory, it’s hard to say if this is variability or sellers adjusting their pricing and buyers responding.
• The Napili, Kahana and Honokowai condo inventory took the opposite trajectory from Kihei with pending sales dipping substantially and active listings increasing on the month.
• The change between the end of the month active inventory in the resort markets was nominal. Wailea’s active inventory increased by 1 and both Kapalua and Ka’anapali decreased by 1. Pendings increased in both Ka’anapali and Wailea while the Kapalua pending sales dipped.

One final thing worth noting about home and condo inventory, September 1 marks something of a seasonal shift on Maui. Labor day is the end of our summer tourist season. Traditionally, real estate activity on island slows a little in the early fall. This is a time when some sellers take a break from the market. Eleven home and condo listings either cancelled or expired on September 1 after the numbers for the charts above were compiled. We also tend to see a little less in the way of new inventory. One would think that would be the case this year, but there are fewer certainties in this day and age.

Checking in On Price Reductions

Nationally, there is some discussions of price reductions starting to level off after steady growth over the last few months? What about Maui? Looking at the inventory as of September 2nd, 42.97% of all active home listings reduced their price one or more times. On August 15th, 39.67% of active homes reduced their price. On July 4th, that number stood at 34.03%.

In the condo market, 27.84% of all active listings reduced their price. That is actually a decrease from 29.62% on August 15th. For further context, 24.63% of the active condo listings had a reduced asking price on July 4th.

It’s worth noting, that some parts of the market have more price reductions than other. There is a fair amount of variability in the market by district and price point. One example being homes in the $750,000-$999,999 price range which I mentioned earlier.

How Quickly Are Things Going Under Contract?

Another metric that gives a pretty good sense of current demand and market conditions is the rate at which properties go under contract. Specifically, we look at what percentage of properties go under contract in ten days or less. We started tracking this in February when market conditions were particularly frenzied. At the time, 56% of all properties went under contract within 10 days. Of the listings that came to market between August 10th and August 17th, 29.79% went under contract within 10 days. That’s actually up a little from the last period we tracked between July 25th and August 1st when 22.45% went under contract within 10 days or less of coming to market.

Looking specifically at homes, 30.43% of the new listings between August 10th and 17th went under contract in 10 days or less. For comparison’s sake, between August 10-17, 2021, 50% of new inventory went under contract in 10 days or less. For a pre-covid reference point, it was 15.15% of new home listings between August 10th – August 17th, 2019 . I do want to mention that this seems to be an anomalously low week. Other recent 2019 comparisons came in around 25%.

For condos, 29.17% of the new listings between August 10th and August 17th went under contract in ten days or less. During the same time span of 2021 and 2019 respectively, the numbers came in at 58.33% and 30.43%.

Overall, we are well below last year’s frenzy. While we may have fewer buyers and sellers, the overall absorption of new properties is similar to what we experienced before Covid.

Interest Rates

One other variable relevant to market conditions is interest rates. Recent movement in the bond market pushed interest rates on the 30 year fixed mortgage back up over 6%. This is the first time mortgages hit that rate since June. From recent discussions with mortgage brokers, many borrowers are opting for 10 year ARMs to lower monthly payments. That said, regardless of the mortgage product borrowing costs are significantly higher now than they were 12 or even 6 months ago. That is going to have a big impact on affordability.

Some Musings Eye Candy From Maui’s Sandy Shores

Maui no ka oi! pic.twitter.com/qZxQF64MWF

— Maui Hawaii (@Maui) August 28, 2022

Contact The Maui Real Estate Team

Questions, comments or feedback? Contact The Maui Real Estate Team to discuss the latest market musings or if you need assistance buying or selling Maui Real Estate. Our experienced team of agents is well suited to assist buyers and sellers in the current dynamic market conditions. We look forward to hearing from you and discussing your real estate needs.

Sweet sixteen! This is the 16th edition of our almost weekly look at the Maui Real Estate market. This latest edition is highlighted by our monthly inventory check. We break down end of the month home and condo inventory by both community and price point. We also check in on the percentage of the active inventory with price reductions, and the percentage of new listings going under contract in ten days or less. Collectively, the three metrics give us a better sense of current market conditions. Last but not least, this edition highlights a couple of national perspectives on the real estate market.

Inventory Watch for Single Family Homes

	5/31/22		6/30/22		7/31/22
	Active	Pending	Active	Pending	Active	Pending
<$750,000	6	22	6	16	11 (+5)	14 (-2)
$750,000-$999,999	19	54	32	63	25 (-7)	62 (-1)
$1,000,000-$1,499,999	43	37	58	34	65 (+7)	25 (-9)
$1,500,000-$1,999,999	30	27	44	22	41 (-3)	19 (-3)
$2,000,000-$2,999,999	37	14	34	15	31 (-3)	19 (+4)
$3,000,000-$4.999,999	24	11	27	10	25 (-2)	9 (-1)
$5,000,000-$9,999,999	22	8	23	8	24 (+1)	7 (-1)
$10,000,000-$19,999,999	9	2	13	0	12 (-1)	0
$20,000,000+	3	1	4	1	5 (+1)	1
Totals	193	176	241	169	239 (-2)	156 (-13)

	5/31/22		6/30/22		7/31/22
	Active	Pending	Active	Pending	Active	Pending
Haiku	15	12	20	13	22 (+2)	11 (-2)
Hana	5	3	4	2	4	1 (-1)
Ka’anapali	13	6	11	7	10 (-1)	7
Kahului	11	24	8	27	13 (+5)	21 (-6)
Kapalua	4	2	5	3	5	1 (-2)
Kihei	27	25	45	22	48 (+3)	14 (-8)
Kula	24	12	25	13	19 (-6)	16 (+3)
Lahaina	15	15	20	18	18 (-2)	14 (-4)
Makawao	11	17	13	12	14 (+1)	9 (-3)
Napili/Kahana/Hono…	12	5	12	3	10 (-2)	6 (+3)
Pukalani	5	12	12	7	7 (-5)	6 (-1)
Spreckelsville/Paia	12	4	11	2	10 (-1)	2
Wailea/Makena	8	5	13	4	15 (+2)	5 (+1)
Wailuku	28	32	39	33	39	35 (+2)

End of July Home Inventory Review

Here are some notes about the data above to provide some framework. The price range chart includes all of the island of Maui, but not the islands of Lanai or Molokai. The list of districts above is limited to those with the most activity.

• After seeing an increase in inventory in June, the inventory of active home listings actually decreased in July by approximately 1%. We just aren’t seeing the substantive increase in home inventory that many mainland markets experienced this spring and early summer.
• The decrease in pending sales continues. Pending sales are 8% below the end of June and 12% below the end of May.
• Looking at the different price points, I think the two most notable price ranges are homes priced below $750,000 and listings between $1,000,000 and $1,499,999.
• The below $750,000 range turned my head at first glance. The “entry point” to the Maui market’s been one of the most competitive parts of the market for some time. When I looked at the actual inventory, the increased inventory in this range consists of properties that need a lot of work. Fix and flip buyers who might pursue opportunities like this seem to be less active.
• The $1,000,000 to $1,499,999 price range is the one segment of the market that saw increases in inventory in both June and July. Inventory at the end of July is 51% higher than it was at the end of May. This price range also had the biggest drop in pending sales over July. This is a price range that is likely feeling the effects of affordability challenges. It is out of reach for most Maui residents particularly with higher borrowing costs.
• The $2,000,000-$2,999,999 price range is the one market segment that saw an increase in pending sales.
• Looking at the different communities around the island, Kihei is noteworthy for both an increase in inventory and a decrease in sales. Inventory is up 77% from the end of May and pending sales are down 37%. Billy and I were discussing why Kihei may be seeing the biggest increase in inventory. It’s hard to say definitively. That said, we both noticed a fair amount of aspirational pricing among the active inventory.
• The other thing to note about the community chart is some of the variability evident. Some places that saw increased inventory last month saw decreases this month and vice versa. With these small sample sizes, I surmise we may continue to see month to month shifts in a number of communities.

Inventory Watch for Condos

	5/31/22		6/30/22		7/31/22
	Active	Pending	Active	Pending	Active	Pending
<$250,000	5	9	2	8	1 (-1)	8
$250,000-$499,999	12	23	19	25	11 (-8)	23 (-2)
$500,000-$749,999	18	55	31	40	43 (+8)	39 (-1)
$750,000-$999,999	29	54	44	46	44	43 (-3)
$1,000,000-$1,499,999	23	49	29	30	30 (+1)	31 (+1)
$1,500,000-$1,999,999	21	34	28	34	30 (+2)	33 (-1)
$2,000,000-$2,999,999	19	40	20	36	20	36
$3,000,000-$4,999,999	12	22	11	25	12 (+1)	18 (-7)
$5,000,000-$9,999,999	7	7	11	3	10 (-1)	3
$10,000,000+	3	0	4	0	4	0
Totals	149	293	199	247	205 (+6)	234 (-13)

	5/31/22		6/30/22		7/31/22
	Active	Pending	Active	Pending	Active	Pending
Ka’anapali	23	23	23	15	24 (+1)	13 (-2)
Kahului	5	8	4	3	2 (-2)	8 (+5)
Kapalua	7	15	12	9	10 (-2)	10 (+1)
Kihei	35	95	55	74	67 (+12)	60 (-14)
Lahaina	14	8	16	5	16	8 (+3)
Ma’alaea	3	5	5	5	5	6 (+1)
Napili/Kahana/Hono…	34	39	48	34	40 (-8)	34
Wailea/Makena	16	91	23	85	25 (+2)	82 (-3)
Wailuku	9	11	12	12	14 (+2)	13 (+1)

End of July Condo Inventory Review

The price points table includes all condos on Maui, but it does not include condos on Molokai or Lanai. The table with districts is limited to the districts with the most activity. As mentioned in previous musings that look at inventory, pending sales at La’i Loa at Wailea Hills skew the data in Wailea and the $1,500,000-$5,000,000 price ranges. There are 75 pending sales in that development based on contracts penned in 2020 and the first quarter of 2021. Pending sales in La’i Loa won’t start to close until sometime in 2023.

• After a big 33% jump in inventory between the end of May and June, the inventory of active listings increased a modest 3% by the last day of July.
• Pending sales also continued to drop with a 5.3% decrease in pending sales on July 31st compared to June 30th. That compares to the 16% drop between the end of May and the end of June.
• When you hone in on the different price points, only 4 out of 10 of the price ranges actually experienced increases in inventory. Two of the four only increased by a single condo.
• The lion’s share of the increase in inventory occurred in the $500,000 to $749,999 price range. Looking at the listings in that price range, the majority of those units are non-vacation rental condos geared toward island residents. This segment of the market showed surprising resiliency as rates increased. It seems to be cooling with inventory and days on market both increasing.
• Pending sales decreased across 5 of 10 price points. The $3,000,000 to $4,999,999 price range experienced the largest dip in activity with 7 fewer pending sales.
• Looking at the inventory changes by community, Kihei stands out with the biggest increase in active listings and the biggest decrease in pending listings. Again, I am not sure I can pin point a single reason. As with Kihei homes, I surmise sellers with aspirational pricing play a part. There are also quite a few non-vacation rental Kihei Condos in that $500,000-$750,000 range.
• The Napili, Kahana and Honokowai area took a different trajectory from Kihei with 8 fewer listings on the market.
• Looking at the resorts, Ka’anapali and Wailea both saw modest increases in inventory while Kapalua inventory decreased modestly.

Price Reductions

While inventory remains limited, we are seeing an increasing number of price reductions. As of August 15th, a total of 39.67% of active home listings reduced price one or more times. That compares to 34.03% as of July 4th. In the condo market, 29.26% of condo listings reduced asking price as of August 15th. On July 4th, 24.63% of all condo listings reduced list price.

It’s worth taking a minute to delve into exactly what an increase in price reductions might mean. To be honest, it really varies on a case by case basis. It’s pretty clear that a number of sellers in this market priced with first quarter market conditions in mind. During that time, prices increased upwards rapidly. Sellers could get away with being ambitious. Fast forward 5 months and the rate of appreciation is slowing significantly. If someone wants or needs to sell sooner, they are going to have to price closer to recent comparable sales. More sellers hoping that frothy market conditions continued into the 2nd and 3rd quarter are adjusting their expectations.

It’s also worth noting that pricing on Maui can be challenging. There is enough heterogeneity in the market that even sellers trying to price near comparable sales can miss the mark. If sellers and their agents struggle to value a property due to its unique characteristics, they may need to receive market feedback and adjust accordingly.

At this point, the price reductions that occurring appear to be sellers either the ambitious adjusting expectations or those struggling to come up with a value responding to the market. I haven’t seen any price reduction data that shows sellers on Maui adjusting prices below recent comparable sales. If we do start to see any shifts in value, it is likely going to occur first in the pockets of the market where inventory is higher.

Demand for New Listings

In February, we started tracking what percentage of properties went under contract in ten days or less. Back then, 56% of all listings went under contract within 10 days. That percentage slowly decreased throughout the spring with a more pronounced shift after interest rates spiked above 5%. For the period between July 25th and August 1st, the number dipped down to 22.45% of all active listings. For comparison, 50.94% of all new listings went under contract within 10 days between July 25th and August 1st of 2021. During the same period of 2019, 28% of new listings went under contract within 10 days of coming to market.

There is some discrepancy between homes and condos for this metric. For the 25th through the 1st, 26.92% of new condo listings and 17.36% of homes went under contract within 10 days of hitting the market. Again for comparison’s sake, between 7/25/21 and 8/5/21, 48% homes and 57% of condos went under contract within 10 days or less of being listed. For the period between 7/25/19 and 8/1/19, 25% of homes and 30.23% of condos went under contract within 10 days or less of being listed.

The numbers above would suggest that market conditions are definitely a lot cooler than earlier this year or this time last year. It would also seem to suggest that the market is cooler than pre-covid conditions in 2019. That said, it is worth noting that 2019 was a pretty strong year for real estate on island.

A Few National Real Estate Perspectives Worth Sharing

It’s been a while since we posted some national perspectives on the real estate market. I thought it might be worth sharing some thoughts I recently came across on social media.

This is not a one-size fits all housing cool-down.

Just look at Phoenix and Tampa.

Both were super hot markets during the boom. Now, Phoenix is slowing much faster. pic.twitter.com/uYTWMH3DjT

— Lance Lambert (@NewsLambert) August 12, 2022

I am not sure that the tweet above is a new perspective to all of our readers, but I thought it was one worth reiterating. While there’s been a demand slow down across the board in the national market, local market conditions are strongly impacted by available inventory. Some former hot spots for real estate appreciation are seeing stronger market shifts and signs of price decreases as inventory ballooned over the last few months. Other places where inventory growth remains limited aren’t experiencing downward pressure on pricing. Maui more closely resembles the latter than the former.

If you have a little time, I also included this video from the folks at Altos Research. It discusses some of the recent changes in their market analysis and forecasts as the rate of inventory growth is slowing around the country.

Watch this video on YouTube.

They suggest that the chances of broader price reductions are lowering due to the more limited inventory growth. It will be interesting to compare their current projections to the actual conditions in the fall market.

Some Maui Beauty to Brighten Your Post

Saturday beach days on Maui's south shores.☀️ pic.twitter.com/GMjQ9sgA2s

— HAWAI'I Magazine (@HAWAIIMagazine) August 13, 2022

Contact The Maui Real Estate Team

If you have questions or comments on this post, Contact The Maui Real Estate Team. Thinking of buying or selling property on Maui? Call us or send us an e-mail, we would welcome the chance to sit down with you to discuss your real estate needs.

It’s the beginning of a new month and the end of the first half of the year. Milestones like that typically call for a look back at first half of the year stats. That said, the market in the first quarter of the year is a lot different than the market now. While we intend to look at the June sales numbers in the next musings, the focus of this edition is on statistics that are more relevant to current conditions. The three main statistics reviewed in Volume XIII include inventory, price reductions and the number of properties going under contract within ten days of coming to market.

Inventory Watch for Single Family Homes

At the end of May, we started documenting end of month inventory for different communities and price points. We did it again on the last day of June. The intent is to track inventory at a more granular level than the island wide inventory statistics released by the local Realtor’s Association.

	May 31, 2022		June 30, 2022
	Active	Pending	Active	Pending
<$750,000	6	22	6	16 (-6)
$750,000-$999,999	19	54	32 (+13)	63 (+9)
$1,000,000-$1,499,999	43	37	58 (+15)	34 (-3)
$1,500,000-$1,999,999	30	27	44 (+14)	22 (-5)
$2,000,000-$2,999,999	37	14	34 (-3)	15 (+1)
$3,000,000-$4.999,999	24	11	27 (+3)	10 (-1)
$5,000,000-$9,999,999	22	8	23 (+1)	8
$10,000,000-$19,999,999	9	2	13 (+4)	0 (-2)
$20,000,000+	3	1	4 (+1)	1
Totals	193	176	241 (+48)	169 (-7)

	May 31, 2022		June 30, 2022
	Active	Pending	Active	Pending
Haiku	15	12	20 (+5)	13 (+1)
Hana	5	3	4 (-1)	2 (-1)
Ka’anapali	13	6	11 (-2)	7 (+1)
Kahului	11	24	8 (-3)	27 (+3)
Kapalua	4	2	5 (+1)	3 (+1)
Kihei	27	25	45 (+18)	22 (-3)
Kula	24	12	25 (+1)	13 (+1)
Lahaina	15	15	20 (+5)	18(+3)
Makawao	11	17	13 (+2)	12 (-5)
Napili/Kahana/Hono…	12	5	12	3 (-2)
Pukalani	5	12	12 (+7)	7 (-5)
Spreckelsville /Paia	12	4	11 (-1)	2 (-2)
Wailea/Makena	8	5	13 (+5)	4 (-1)
Wailuku	28	32	39 (+11)	33 (+1)

End of June Home Inventory Overview

Here are a couple of quick notes about the data above to provide some framework. The price ranges cover all of Maui. They do not include the islands of Lanai or Molokai. The list of districts above is limited to those with the most activity.

• The overall trends on inventory are pretty clear with just under a 25% increase in active listings and a 4% drop in pending sales over the last month. A substantial spike in interest rates provided the backdrop for this shift in active and pending sales.
• Honing in on various price points, you can see a little more variability in the market.
• Active inventory below $750,000 remained unchanged while pending sales decreased.
• When you bump up to the $750,000-$999,999 range, inventory increases are substantial, but it is also the price range with the largest increase in pending sales activity.
• The $1,000,000-$2,000,000 range saw a significant increase in active listings with a drop in pending sales activity.
• The luxury home market experienced more modest increases in inventory and the decline in pending sales is less significant.
• The variability in numbers at a district level is a little more of a head scratcher.
• Kihei inventory grew the most with a 66% increase in active homes for sale.
• Neighboring communities saw different trajectories in inventory. Kahului’s inventory fell while the number of active homes in Wailuku grew almost 40%.
• Within the luxury markets, Wailea and Makena experienced a pretty healthy bump in inventory. Kapalua has one more active home listing while active inventory in Ka’anapali is down.

Inventory Watch for Condos

	May 31, 2022		June 30, 2022
	Active	Pending	Active	Pending
<$250,000	5	9	2 (-3)	8 (-1)
$250,000-$499,999	12	23	19 (+7)	25 (+2)
$500,000-$749,999	18	55	31 (+13)	40 (-15)
$750,000-$999,999	29	54	44 (+15)	46 (-8)
$1,000,000-$1,499,999	23	49	29 (+6)	30 (-19)
$1,500,000-$1,999,999	21	34	28 (+7)	34
$2,000,000-$2,999,999	19	40	20 (+1)	36 (-4)
$3,000,000-$4,999,999	12	22	11 (+1)	25 (+3)
$5,000,000-$9,999,999	7	7	11 (+4)	3 (-1)
$10,000,000+	3	0	4 (+1)	0
Totals	149	293	199 (+50)	247 (-46)

	May 31, 2022		June 30, 2022
	Active	Pending	Active	Pending
Ka’anapali	23	23	23	15 (-8)
Kahului	5	8	4 (+1)	3 (-5)
Kapalua	7	15	12 (+5)	9 (-6)
Kihei	35	95	55 (+20)	74 (-21)
Lahaina	14	8	16 (+2)	5 (-3)
Maalaea	3	5	5 (+2)	5
Napili/Kahana/Hono…	34	39	48 (+14)	34 (-5)
Wailea	16	91	23 (+7)	85 (-6)
Wailuku	9	11	12 (+3)	12 (+1)

End of June Maui Condo Inventory Overview

As with the home market, the price points table includes all condos on Maui, but it does not include condos on Molokai or Lanai. The table with districts is limited to the districts with the most activity. As mentioned in the last Musings, pending sales at La’i Loa at Wailea Hills skew the data in Wailea and the $1,500,000-$5,000,000 price ranges. There are 75 pending sales in that development based on contracts penned in 2020 and the first quarter of 2021. Those pending sales won’t start to close until sometime in 2023.

• The increase in condo inventory between May and June is more pronounced with a 33% jump in active condo listings. Pending condo sales dropped 16%.
• Honing in on the different price points, all price ranges with the exception of condos priced below $250,000 experienced an increase in active inventory.
• The biggest increase occurred in the $500,000 to $749,999 price range.
• On the pending sales front, all but three price ranges had a decrease. The $250,000 to $499,999 price range saw a modest increase. The number of pending condos sales stayed the same from $1,500,000 to $1,999,999. The $10,000,000 plus condo market remained unchanged with no pending listings.
• Looking at inventory from a district level, active inventory increased in all communities except for Ka’anapali.
• Ka’anapali condos are the outlier when it comes to resort condo inventory. Kapalua inventory increased 71% and Wailea inventory increased 44%. It is worth noting these increases are coming from near historic lows in inventory. That 71% increase in condo inventory in Kapalua is due to just 5 more listings.
• Other notable increases in inventory occurred in the markets that were the busiest earlier this year. Kihei active condo inventory increased 57%. Napili, Kahana and Honokowai active listings increased 41%.

Price Reductions

As of July 4th, 34.03% of all active home listings on Maui reduced their asking price one or more times. That compares to 33% on May 24th and 29.5% on June 7th. After seeing a small dip in price reductions in early June, those numbers appear to be rising again.

For condos, 24.63% of all active condo listings reduced their price one or more time. The increase in price reductions is steady. The percentage of active listings that reduced price was 18.2% and 20.9% on May 24th and June 7th respectively.

It’s important to note that the higher number of price reductions isn’t indicative of decreasing values at this point in time. In many cases, this is sellers who priced ambitiously adjusting to the realities of a shifting market.

Market Response to New Listings

Another metric that we’ve tracked in our market musings is the percentage of new listings going under contract within 10 days. We started to track this in mid February, a time period when competition for inventory remained incredibly strong. At that time, 56% of all new listings were under contract within 10 days. As posted in Musings XI, that number dipped to 35.54% for the period between May 18th and May 25th. For the period between June 14th and June 21st, the number dropped to 25.37%.

While the number above shows a pretty significant cooling of the market, context is key. Between June 14th and June 21st of 2019, only 17.28% of all listings went under contract within the first ten days of coming to market. There are still buyers out there acting quickly when well priced properties come to market.

Takeaways for Buyers and Sellers

When interest rates spiked over 6% in early June, the hyperbolic takes on the real estate market came fast and furious. The crowing of the bubble watchers became deafening. In places like Boise and Phoenix, it looks like there may be some drastic shifts in the market. That said, what’s true for Boise may not be true for Maui. Our goal is to strip out the hype so buyers and sellers can make informed decisions.

To be clear, the Maui Market continues to cool down from the frenzied market of earlier this year. While inventory is growing, the growth in inventory started later than most markets on the mainland. We are still seeing inventory levels well below normal. While pending sales are decreasing, the percentage of properties going under contract in ten days or less is higher than during the same period of 2019. As the numbers above show, market conditions are showing variability based on location and price points. Where you are buying or selling in the market will impact your experience.

Buyers shopping in most price points will appreciate the increased inventory compared to the scarcity of earlier this year. While competition is down, well priced properties may still see bidding wars. This is particularly true at the lower priced points of the market where inventory remains truly scarce.

Prospective sellers will want to look closely at conditions specific to their price point and community when pricing their property. In those areas where inventory is growing the most and demand is shrinking, you will want to be particularly mindful of not overpricing your property. Sales will likely take longer. With buyers largely moving out of the FOMO mentality, a little give and take may be necessary to get deals done.

Some Maui Beauty to Brighten This Post

Where our head is at after a three day weekend.🏖️ pic.twitter.com/YAHBectRfH

— HAWAI'I Magazine (@HAWAIIMagazine) July 5, 2022

Contact The Maui Real Estate Team

Questions about the market or this post? Thinking of buying or selling? Contact The Maui Real Estate Team. We look forward to being of assistance.