With the first quarter of the year done, we wanted to provide some more community level market updates. A few weeks back, we did a post on the Spreckelsville neighborhood. This post looks at market activity just up the coastline in Paia and Kuau. The Maui Real Estate Team Office is located off of Baldwin Avenue in Paia. Needless to say, it is a market we follow closely. This post looks back at market activity during the second half of 2022 and the first quarter of 2023. We also give a few thoughts on the market outlook for the rest of the year.

One quick note before we get to the numbers, the local Realtor’s Association lump Paia, Kuau and Spreckelsville into the same district. That makes sense geographically, but the markets are just different enough that we like to provide separate market updates for the two areas.

Paia Second Half of 2022 and First Quarter of 2023 Sales Numbers

• Nine homes sold in Paia between July 1, 2022 and March 31st 2023. The median price of the homes sold during this period came in at $940,000.
• Over the same period between July of 2021 and March of 2022, twenty homes sold. The median sales price during that time came in at $1,175,000. The decrease in median price is a reflection of the inventory sold rather than a decrease in property values.
• The lowest priced home to sell over the last nine months closed in December for $705,000. The four bedroom, two and a half bath home with 1,507 square feet of living space is located in the Skill Village neighborhood. The home needed some TLC.
• The highest priced sale over the last nine months closed for $5,700,000. This 3 bed, 2.5 bath home includes 2,562 of living space on a 18,025 square foot oceanfront lot on Kuau Point. This home sold off the market.
• Skill Village experienced the most sales activity over the last nine months with 3 transactions. Kuau Point and the downtown Paia area both had 2 closed sales. Neighborhoods like Kuau Bayview, North Shore Village and Paia Halelani did not see any inventory and consequently no sales activity.
• One condo closed at Kuau Plaza in the last nine months. The one bedroom, one bath condo sold for $700,000 in July of 2022. That sale set a new record for this small vacation rental condo development. Two sales occurred in Kuau Plaza between July 2021 and March 30th, 2022.

A Particularly Quiet Start to 2023 in Paia

While the volume of sales for the last nine months came in quite a bit below the same period of 2021-2022, the first quarter of 2023 was particularly slow. Only 2 homes sold in the first three months of this year. Only two homes went under contract during this period. This is the slowest year for first quarter sales since 2014, and the slowest first quarter for pending sales since 2009!

So what’s driving the decrease in sales activity? Well, there isn’t a community on Maui where activity isn’t lower than last year. That is due to a mix of both decreased demand and diminished inventory. That said, the Paia and Kuau area are seeing a particularly acute decrease in inventory at “lower” price points. Only one home priced for less than $1,500,000 came to market in the last six months and only four homes for $2,000,000 or less.

The golden handcuffs of low interest rates, the lack of opportunity for step up buyers and just a general lack of inventory in this desirable community combined to create the current inventory crunch. With so little inventory available at lower price points, it is safe to say that the dip in median price we saw during the last nine months won’t continue going forward. Once again, the shift in inventory sold will be the biggest driver in the change in median prices.

The Market Outlook in Paia for the Rest of 2023

Based on inventory levels, I don’t think I am going out on a limb saying sales volume will likely remain quiet. There are currently two properties under contract, and it does not appear as if significant inventory relief is forthcoming. The dynamics that resulted in the recent decrease in inventory remain in place. What about demand? It’s hard to say what to expect. The trajectory of interest rates will play a part. Lower rates may generate a few more sales, while any spike in rates could keep some buyers on the sideline. Needless to say, we will be keeping a close eye on inventory in this community. You can search the current inventory of Paia Homes for Sale on our site.

Keep Austin Weird. Keep Portland Weird. Keep Paia weird. Yes, it’s time to check in on market conditions in Maui’s quirky North Shore beachtown. The Paia real estate market is doing it’s best to keep things strange with market behavior different this year compared to most other Maui communities.

This update focuses only on Paia and Kuau. Our local MLS lumps these areas together with the Spreckelsville neighborhood. We think that these markets are different enough that they merit their own discussions. If interested, we did a Spreckelsville update earlier this summer.

Notable Numbers from the 2022 Paia Real Estate Market

• As of September 19th, Maui Realtors reported 12 home sales and 1 condo sale during 2022. By comparison, there were 22 home sales and 3 condo sales during the same period of 2021. That is a 45% decrease in home sale activity. There were 12 home sales and 3 condo sales during the same period of 2019.
• Of the 12 homes sold this year, 3 homes sold for over asking price and one sold for full price. That is 33% of the inventory selling for asking or above. Last year, 6 homes sold for above asking price and 6 sold for full price. That is 54.5% selling for asking price or above. In 2019, no homes sold for over asking price while just under 42% sold for full price.
• Of the 12 homes that sold, 6 sold for cash. The listing realtor for the one Kuau condo sale also reported it to be cash transaction.
• The median price of homes sold in Paia is $969,999. That is 7.8% higher than last year’s median of $900,000 and 45.5% lower than the 2019 median of $1,411,562. Note, this is a classic case of how changes in median prices don’t necessarily reflect changes in values, particularly in a small market. Needless to say, prices rose substantially since 2019.
• The average sales price of the homes sold in 2022 is $969,166. That is 56.73% lower than the 2021 average of $2,239,886. It is 28.31% lower than 2019 average of $1,310,010.
• The lowest priced home sale for the year to date closed for $650,000. The 3 bedroom, 1 bathroom home with 1,440 square feet of living space on a 6,604 square foot lot is located in the Paia Halelani subdivision. It’s worth noting that the home needed significant repairs and updates when purchased.
• The highest priced sale in Paia for the year to date closed for $1,445,000. The 3 bedroom, 2.5 bathroom home with 1,512 square feet of living space is located on a 6,094 square foot lot in Kuau Bayview. It sold before hitting the MLS.
• Skill Village showed the most year to date sales activity of any neighborhood in Paia with 5 sales. Paia Halealani and Kuau came next with 2 sales each.
• The one condo sale in Kuau Plaza this year closed for $700,000. The one bedroom, one bath unit set a new all time record high in the complex. That’s particularly noteworthy since the previous high sale from last year is a 2 bedroom.

Making Sense of The Numbers

Maybe I am leaning into the weird theme a little too much. Paia’s sales activity compared to last year shows some similarity to a lot of other communities on island. Lower sales volume is common throughout the island due to both inventory constraints and slackening demand. There are really two numbers in Paia and Kuau that stand out as being unusual. The average sales price and the high home sales price both caught the eye. Both are well below not just 2021 numbers, but also 2019 sales numbers.

You can attribute both the average sales price and the low high sales priced to a lack of activity in the high end market. During the same period last year, there were 8 transactions that closed for more than this year’s high sale. That includes 3 sales for $8,000,000 or more. So what’s driving the lack of luxury market activity? Is it inventory? Is it demand? A combination of the two or something else?

Let’s look at the inventory side of things first. At first glance, inventory does not appear to be an issue. The list price of 5 out of 7 current active listings is over $2,000,000. All of those listings have over 100 days on market. Four additional listings over $2,000,000 were on the market in Paia this year but subsequently withdrawn. That could speak to lack of demand, but little to no high end demand goes against the grain compared to other high end market around the island.

Assessing demand isn’t straight forward. There may be buyers shopping for properties in this price range, but if the inventory in question or the price of the inventory in question does not appeal to the market, you aren’t going to see that demand reflected in the stats.

Let’s look at Paia and Kuau oceanfront activity. Last year, there were three sales on the water as of September 19th including 2 sales for $8,000,000 or above. Those transactions were two of the three highest priced sales in Paia and Kuau to date. High end buyers in the market for Paia or Kuau oceanfront had two oceanfront options this year. Both properties listed well above the all time high sales price.

Now, it certainly isn’t outside the realm of possibility to set new high prices in the current market. That said, it’s not too hard to make a case that the list price for both properties is well above market. The one listing, currently off the market, sold in 2021 for $5,200,000. Without significant improvements, the seller relisted for 90% higher than what they paid a year earlier. The other listing is now on the market for the 13th time since 2005. With now almost 3,000 days on market, you can safely say the market is providing some feedback on the list price.

Based on the above, it seems like some of the owners of Paia and Kuau’s higher priced listings may need to sharpen their pencils if they want to find the market. It’s worth noting that there is one listing for over $2,000,000 under contract. 2012 was the last year where there were no sales over $2,000,000 in Paia or Kuau.

Outlook for the Rest of the Year and Early 2023

Including the one pending transaction noted above, there are three total pending sales in Paia and Kuau at this time. So there should be at least some sales activity to close out the year. The question is what other market activity can we expect in Paia and Kuau. I look at recent demand for new listings, inventory and seasonality to try to get some sense of what we might expect the rest of the year.

When gauging current demand in a community, I like to look at the percentage of properties that go under contract within 10 days of coming to market. I will be honest, I am somewhat wary of how effective this metric is for a community like Paia and Kuau just due to the low sample size. Only two listings came to the market since August 1. One went under contract within 10 days, the other went under contract within a month. That would appear to suggest that there is still some demand out there, but again small sample size.

The available inventory is likely to be a limiting factor for activity. With just seven total listings, no listings under $1,000,000 and all active listings on the market for more than 100 days, it would seem activity will likely need to come via a combination price adjustments, negotiations or new inventory.

Last thing I wanted to look at is seasonality in the Paia and Kuau area. The chart above shows pending sales in the area by month over the last five years. While the first half of the year tends to be busier than the last quarter, December is typically a good month for sales activity in Paia. We shall see if that’s the case this year.

One last thing to note, recent interest rate hikes add head winds to the current market. While the Paia market is a little less exposed due to the percentage of cash transactions, the rate increases will impact affordability for financed buyers.

Contact The Maui Real Estate Team

Our office is located in Paia just off Baldwin Avenue. Needless to say, we keep close tabs on the Paia market. Contact The Maui Real Estate Team for assistance buying or selling property in the Paia area. We leverage our local knowledge, experience and connections to provide quality representation. Check out our Paia Real Estate Page to look at current inventory and to search by neighborhood.

Unsurprisingly, Paia’s Real Estate Market is Busy in 2021

We thought it might be a good time to check in on the Paia Real Estate market. Our office is based in this North Shore beach town. Paia’s real estate market consistently sees strong demand and limited inventory. Demand stems from the combination of the town’s charms, amenities and its proximity to fantastic ocean sports. It is known for surfing, windsurfing, kite surfing, foiling, stand up paddling and more. The limited inventory is due in part to constrained housing supply. Bordered on one side by ocean and the other three sides by agricultural land, there isn’t much room for growth. The total supply of homes grew only slightly since the early 2000s. Prior to Covid-19, the market experienced lower sales volume due to limited inventory. Activity remained limited during the first half of 2020 with momentum building over the last few months of the year. For the first seven months of 2021, activity surged with the most closed transactions since 2018.

This post looks at the activity for the year to date in Paia. it is worth noting that our local MLS lumps, Spreckelsville, Paia and Kuau together. The focus of this post is just on the Paia and Kuau area. We posted on Spreckelsville 2021 market activity in July.

Paia Real Estate Market 2021 Notable Numbers

• Maui Realtors reported 18 homes sold during the first 7 months of 2021. This is well above the sales volumes over the same periods of both 2019 and 2020.
• The median price of the homes sold is $900,000. The average price is $2,129,832.44.
• The lowest sale price in the community for the year is $705,000 for a home in the Skill Village neighborhood. It has three bedrooms, two and half bathrooms and 978 square feet of living space on a 6,739 square foot lot.
• The highest priced transaction for the year to date is $9,100,000 for a 7,660 square foot home and a 936 square foot cottage on a 1.28 acre oceanfront lot in Kuau. That is the highest ever sales price for a home in Paia or Kuau.
• We also saw the highest ever sales price for a non-oceanfront home in the Paia and Kuau area. A 2.2 acre compound across the street from the ocean with a 3,171 square foot home, a 989 square foot cottage and two pools closed for $8,375,000.
• The Skill Village neighborhood had the most sales activity of any neighborhood with 7 sales for the year to date.
• In addition to the 18 homes sold, there are an additional 6 pending sales at this time.
• There were also two condos at Kuau Plaza that closed in the first 7 months of the year.

Neighborhood Updates

As mentioned above, Skill Village saw the most sales activity of any neighborhood in the Paia area. Skill Village typically is the most accessible neighborhood by price in the Paia area. The strong demand for entry level homes in the community helped push up pricing. The three all time highest sales prices in Skill Village all happened during the first six months of 2021. They include a new neighborhood high price of $900,000.

Skill Village wasn’t the only entry level neighborhood with higher activity levels. The Paia Halealani neighborhood had 3 sales. While that doesn’t sound like a lot, this subdivision located between North Shore Village and the Paia Community center typically doesn’t see much in the way of activity. Only 3 homes sold in the five years prior to 2021. Sales prices also went up substantially. A home that closed for $1,200,000 shattered the previous neighborhood high sale.

On the other end of the spectrum, there wasn’t much activity in Kuau Bayview with just one listing and one sale. This is typically one of the more in demand neighborhoods in Paia, but there just aren’t many sellers at this time.

While not a neighborhood per say, I wanted to touch on activity in the Paia oceanfront market. There were two ocean front sales in the first seven months of the year. There are two additional oceanfront properties under contract. As mentioned above, the one oceanfront sale set a new record high for the Paia and Kuau area excluding Spreckelsville.

Outlook for the Rest of 2021

While the Maui market isn’t quite as frenzied as the first few months of 2021, it is still a strong seller’s market. Demand in the Maui Real Estate market remains steady. Well priced properties are still tending to go under contract quickly with multiple offer situations common. At this point, supply is likely to have the biggest impact on sales for the rest of 2021 in the Paia and Kuau area. Like many parts of the Maui market, inventory levels are well below normal. There are currently 16 homes listed for sale and 6 of those are already under contract. The remaining 10 include 4 over $7,000,000 and just 2 under $1,000,000. Buyers looking at the entry levels for Paia will find that inventory is particularly limited.

Some mainland markets are starting to see supplies slowly creep up. On Maui inventory remain at or near all time lows. It will be interesting to see if and when we might see inventory levels start to increase in Paia. Supply constraints were impacting market activity prior to Covid. My suspicion is that inventory will be slower to rise in Paia.

Contact The Maui Real Estate Team if you are interested buying or selling property in Paia. The Maui Real Estate keeps close tabs on our back yard market. We would welcome the chance to discuss your real estate needs.

It has been a while since we checked in on the Paia Real Estate Market. Paia town on Maui’s North Shore is where The Maui Real Estate Team office is located. It is one of our office’s core markets. This town has consistently seen strong demand and limited supply. The combination creates steady upward pressure on pricing. This post looks at market activity in the community during the second half of 2018 and the first four months of 2019.

One thing to note. Our local MLS groups Paia, Spreckelsville and Kuau together. We have always thought that Spreckelsville is its own market. As a result, this post looks at Paia and Kuau only. We provided a market update on Spreckelsville in February.

The map above shows sales market activity in Paia and Kuau between July 1, 2018 and May 1, 2019. The red pins represent sales. The yellow pins represent pending sales. The green sales represent active inventory. You can click on individual pins for more details on sales.

Paia Sales Summary

• There were 11 homes and 3 condos sold during the last six months of 2018. By comparison, there were 8 homes and one condo sold in the second half of 2017.
• The median price of the homes sold in the second half of 2018 was $878,000. The median price of homes sold in the same period of 2017 was $747,000.
• During the first four months of 2019, six homes and two condos sold. During the first four months of 2018, there were eight homes sold.
• The median price of the homes sold during the first four months of 2019 is $1,079,062. The median prices for the homes sold in the first third of 2018 was $800,000.
• The high sale for the first four months of 2019 is 50 Kai Place. This home and ohana is located on a 12,166 square foot lot on the ocean side of Hana Highway. The value may have been higher to the purchaser than the general market as it provides a potential second access point to the buyer’s oceanfront property. It closed for $2,150,000.
• The high sale for the last six months of 2018 is 116 Kuau Beach place. This oceanfront property consists of two homes on a lot of approximately 16,335 square feet. It sold for $3,500,000.
• The lowest priced home to sell during the first four months of 2019 is 514 Pahi Ka Street in Skill Village. This four bedroom, two and a half bath home with 1,670 square feet of living space sold for $649,000.
• The lowest priced home to sell in the last 6 months of 2018 sold for $350,000. This home, located located behind Cafe Des Amis, was in very poor condition. It was recently renovated and went under contract for $575,000 before it went to market.

Sales Activity in Specific Paia Neighborhoods

Kuau Bayview

Three sales closed in Kuau Bayview between July 1, 2018 and May 1, 2019. More accurately, all three sales closed in the second half of 2018. That is a slight uptick over the two sales that occurred over the same period between 2017 and 2018. While we haven’t seen any sales in the $900,000 plus range as we have in the previous couple of years, that is more due to the size and location of the units that have sold. This neighborhood continues to see strong buyer demand due to its location and general pride of ownership.

Skill Village

Sales activity has been higher in Skill Village than any other neighborhood in Paia over the last five years. Some of that is due to the size of the neighborhood. It is also due to relative affordability. It typically offers some of the lower priced homes in Paia. Four homes sold in the neighborhood between July 1, 2018 and May 1, 2019. That is a slight dip from the five homes that sold in the year prior. Sales seem to be slowing due to a limited supply of inventory. The decreased inventory is helping to push prices up further.

Kuau Plaza

Kuau Plaza, the thirty unit condo in Paia, saw a fair amount of sales activity with three sales in the last half of 2018 and two sales in the first four months of 2019. There is one additional condo in Kuau Plaza that is currently under contract. Units in the building tend to sell quickly when they come on market. The fact that you can vacation rent these condos legally helps boost demand for the property. That is particularly the case with the recent additional restrictions on vacation renting single family homes on island.

Paia Oceanfront

Only one oceanfront home sold in Paia since July 1, 2018. That is down quite a bit from the five sales over the same period of 2017-2018. Some of that stems from lack of inventory. There are only three oceanfront homes on the market at this time. Two of those homes came to market after January first. Oceanfront homes tend to spend more time on the market.

Overall Thoughts on the Statistics and the Paia Market Outlook

Looking at all of the numbers above, the median sales price for the first four months of 2019 is the most striking. Paia broke the million dollar median barrier. The median is driven in part by an increase in values, but also due to a lack of lower priced inventory. At this point, the lowest priced sale for the year is $649,000. I would anticipate that homes priced under $700,000 will remain scarce through the year which will continue the trend of high median sales prices.

If the overall economy continues on its current trajectory, values will continue to push upward. That said, I would not be surprised to see the rate of increase moderate. Homes in Paia are becoming increasingly inaccessible for the average island resident. If prices push up much further, I surmise it will be due to off island vs. local buyers.

Contact the Maui Real Estate Team if you are interested in Paia Property. We know the community and its neighborhoods well. You can browse the current inventory of Paia Real Estate on our website.

2018 Year to Date Paia Update

As we approach the end of August, I thought this would be a good time to check in on the Paia Real Estate market. We already looked at the Spreckelsville neighborhood last week. This post will look at just Paia and Kuau. Paia has been a strong market due to high demand and constrained supplies. Hemmed in by cane fields, there have been no new subdivisions in the community since back in 2003. Over that time, Paia has continued to grow in prominence and popularity. People have sought out the North Shore town due to its proximity to North Shore wind and wave sports, natural beauty, preponderance of wellness related business and plantation town charm.

Paia Town from Above

With no real growth in housing inventory and increased demand, pricing in the community has been on an upward trajectory since 2011. With limited plans for future development on the immediate horizon, the ingredients are in place for continued upward pressure on prices over the long term. This post looks at real estate activity in the community for the year to date and the outlook for the rest of 2018.

The map above shows real estate activity in Paia during 2018. The red pins represent sales while the yellow pins represent pending sales. You can click on individual pins to learn more about the individual properties. It is worth noting that the map above and the numbers below exclude the Spreckelsville neighborhood. Traditionally, the local Realtor Association lumps Spreckeslville in with Paia in our MLS.

Notable Paia Real Estate Numbers for the Year to Date

• There have been 17 homes sold as of August 18, 2018 with four homes currently under contract. Last year there were 11 homes sold over that same period of time. That is a 54% increase in sales volume.
• The median sales price for homes during this period is $615,000. The average price over this period is $1,154,610. Over the same period last year, the median price was 700K with an average price of $1,591,045. That is a 13% drop in median price and a 27% drop in average price.
• The high sales price for the year to date is $6,350,000 for a house and cottage on just under an acre of oceanfront land.
• The low sale for the year to date is $377,000 for a short sale in Skill Village. It is worth noting that the 2 bedroom, 1 bath home went under contract all the way back in February of 2017.
• There were two condos that sold at Kuau Plaza for the year to date with one more pending sale. The high sale is $375,000 for a remodeled one bedroom, one bath. This is above average activity for this small vacation rentable condo complex.
• There was one bank owned sale and two short sales among the seventeen sales in Paia this year. These are still properties being processed through the system from the last real estate downturn.

Thoughts on the Overall Activity to Date in Paia

The numbers above show a healthy bump in sales activity and a pretty sizable decrease in median and average prices compared to last year. These changes are not due to an increase in demand or a decreased value. Instead, it is a reflection of an increase in supply. For the first seven months of the year, Paia had a respite from the worst of the supply crunch. The more notable increase in supply came at the lower price points in the market. While the inventory for buyers under $650,000 remained relatively thin, it was a lot better than what was available last year. We even saw a few sales under $500,000. Unfortunately, the lowest priced inventory wasn’t that accessible to first time buyers as the condition of two of the three homes required cash buyers. The third was a home that had gone under contract all the way back in February of 2017. While Paia is a small community, it has a pretty diverse housing stock. The paragraphs below look at the sales activity in specific neighborhoods in Paia and Kuau.

Paia Halelani

Paia Halelani is a neighborhood located a few streets past the intersection of Hana Highway and Baldwin Avenue on the Mauka side of Hana Highway. It has had very little turnover in the last few years with no sales since 2015. During 2015, we saw record high sales for the neighborhood. This year, there have been two sales and both were priced under $500,000. That said, this is not a reflection of values dipping. Both homes were in poor condition requiring cash buyers.

Skill Village

Skill Village is located off of Baldwin Avenue about a mile above the intersection of Baldwin and Makawao Avenue. The neighborhood of modest homes sees more turnover than most parts of Paia. That said, 2017 proved to be pretty quiet year for sales with only 2 sales through Mid August. In 2018, much of the increase in Paia market activity can be attributed to a resurgence in Skill Village sales. There have been a total of 9 sales in the neighborhood this year. That is an impressive 450% increase. Skill Village also smashed its all time sales record this year with a close of $800,000. It is worth noting that this larger home was formerly owned by a building contractor who made significant upgrades to the finishing of the property.

Kuau Bayview

Kuau Bayview is another neighborhood that experienced an increase in sales through the middle of August. After only two sales in all of 2017, there have been four sales this year. Three of the four sales were noteworthy. We saw the first ever $1,000,000 sale in the neighborhood, the highest sales price for a home that backs on to Hana Highway and the highest ever cost per square foot sale. It is clear that Kuau Bayview remains an in demand neighborhood for Paia buyers.

Paia Oceanfront

While not a neighborhood per say, I did want to look at the sales activity for Paia Oceanfront Homes. There have been two sales this year. One for a home on Nalu Place on Paia Bay. The other home was further East from downtown on Lae Place. The large oceanfront lot of just under one acre has a home and a cottage. That property has exchanged hands three times in the last ten years. The two sales to date this year equals the same number as last year through the same period of time. There is one other oceanfront home currently under contract.

Paia Outlook for the Rest of 2018

While the Paia market saw volume increase due to an increase in inventory over the last seven and a half months, the remainder of the year may see limited sales due to shrinking inventory. There are eight listings in Paia and Kuau currently with four of the eight homes under contract. While the pending sales will help to pad the year to date totals, buyers are going to find limited choices unless some additional homes come to market. You can see the current inventory of Paia Real Estate listings on MauiRealEstate.com. Contact the Maui Real Estate Team if you are thinking of buying or selling a property in Paia. We would welcome the chance to be of assistance.

Paia town is home base for the Maui Real Estate Team. It also happens to be one of the more in demand real estate markets on island. A bohemian vibe, Plantation town charm, access to great water sports, galleries, good restaurants and shopping have made this little town internationally renowned. We want to take a look back at how the Paia market performed in 2016 and how it might perform in 2017.

One quick note, typically the Spreckelsville neighborhood is lumped in with Paia when people talk about Paia real estate. We believe Spreckelsville is somewhat unique within Paia and opted to exclude it from this overview. We did a separate Sprecks market update at the end of 2016.

The map above shows the 2016 sales as well as the one 2017 sale that was based on a contract from 2016. You can click on individual pins on the map for additional details on the sales.

Looking back at the year in sales, there were some notable numbers that I think are worth highlighting.

• There were 31 homes sold in Paia and Kuau during 2016 with a median sales price of $600,000 and an average sales price of $1,119,216. In 2015, there were 26 home sales with a median price of $587,000 and an average price of $701,942. That is a 19% increase in volume, a 2% increase in median price and a 59% increase in average price.
• The highest priced home sale was $6,000,000 for an oceanfront estate in Kuau. The property consists of a 4 bedroom, 4.5 bathroom home with 6,258 square feet of living space and a 1 bedroom, 1 bathroom cottage with 1,050 square feet of living space on approximately 1.283 acres of land. Last year, the high sale was $2,995,000 for a single family oceanfront home on Kuau Point.
• This year’s high sale was one of three transactions to close for over $4,000,000 in Paia and Kuau during 2016. All three properties were oceanfront.
• The lowest priced home sale was $455,000 for a 3 bedroom, one bath house with 1,104 square feet of living space on a 6,791 square foot lot. This home is located in the Skill Village Neighborhood. The 2015 low sale was $345,000 for a three bedroom, one bath home with 1,080 square feet of living space on a 6,599 square foot lot.
• There were three condo sales in 2016 at Kuau Plaza. Kuau Plaza is the only condo in the Paia/Kuau area. The highest of the three sales closed for $325,000.
• There was one land sale in Paia in 2016. This oceanfront .432 acre lot closed for $2,950,000. There were no land sales in Paia in 2015.
• There were no bank owned properties or successful short sale transactions that closed in Paia during 2016.

While the numbers above give you a glimpse into market activity in Paia and Kuau as a whole, I also wanted to take a look at some of the individual areas and neighborhoods around Paia.

Kuau Bayview
Kuau Bayview has been one of the strongest performing neighborhoods on the island. It was setting all time high prices before any other neighborhood on the island during this market cycle. The neighborhood holds a lot of appeal to buyers due to location, walkability, consistent pride of ownership and in some cases views. Last year was another strong year for the neighborhood. Record sales prices were set not once but three times. The current record high of $952,000 pushes Kuau Bayview pretty close to the $1,000,000 threshold. In addition to the three high sales, there were two other smaller floor plan sales. The five total sales for 2016 was up sharply from the single sale in 2015. That said, it is worth noting that sales volume in this neighborhood tends to be more of a reflection of available supply instead of demand.

North Shore Village
North Shore Village was the last new development built in Paia. It is hard to believe that it was completed 14 years ago. There were only two sales in the neighborhood in 2016, but one was quite notable. 21 Hoku sold for $750,000. That is a new record high sale by a considerable margin. It sold for 13% more on a cost per square foot basis than the other sale in the neighborhood which only closed 4 months prior. On a cost per square foot basis, it was 19% higher than the previous neighborhood high sale. It will be interesting to see if that will be the new standard or if that sale is viewed as an outlier by future buyers.

Skill Village
Skill Village is another neighborhood that had a record high sale in 2016. A four bedroom, three bathroom home sold for $680,000 in September. It also remains the busiest neighborhood in Paia for sales volume. This was the second straight year with 9 transactions. While the recent high sales price may suggest otherwise, Skill Village provides the most opportunity for buyers who want to get into Paia for below the island’s median sales price for homes.

Oceanfront Paia
While Paia has seen a strong real estate market since the start of the recovery, Paia oceanfront has been slower. There has been a lot of inventory and relatively few sales. We saw a change in dynamics during 2016. After just one sale per year in 2014 and 2015, we saw four transactions in 2016. There were three oceanfront home sales and one land sale.

2017 Market Outlook
After a strong 2016, the big question is what should we expect during 2017 in the Paia Real Estate market. There are few things that I think will drive the market.

Inventory tops the list of market drivers. Island wide, we have seen home inventory shrink. Paia is seeing a more acute decrease in active listings than most other parts of the island. There are currently only 14 active home listings in Paia and Kuau. Three homes are currently under contract. Of the active listings, only five listings are priced less than $1,000,000. The one home priced for less than $500,000 is a short sale facing foreclosure. It also happens to have four additional liens on the property. The lack of available inventory makes it hard for me to imagine that we will come close to last year’s sales volume.

Low inventory and continued demand are a dynamic that is likely to provide continued upward price pressure in the Paia market. Interest rates are something that could prove to be a counterweight to the lack of inventory. Conventional wisdom suggests that we are going to continue to see increases in rates throughout the year. If that comes to fruition, I would suspect that might limit the increase in values particularly in the bottom of the half of the market. Entry level buyers face a tough barrier with current pricing in Paia. Increases in rates will make the cost of ownership that much higher.

We may also look at recent market history for a forecast of the future. Paia has seen significant appreciation since the last downturn, but appreciation has not been linear. If I were to chart values over the last four years, it would likely look like a stair case. Strong increases in value were followed by a pause in values as the market would seemingly catch its breath. Kuau Bayview is a good example of this dynamic. That neighborhood saw a series of record high sales in 2013. The next year and most of 2015 were pretty quiet due to a lack of inventory and sales. As mentioned above, 2015 saw the neighborhood high sales mark broken three times. If the pattern continues, we might see a quieter 2017.

One segment that will be interesting to watch is the oceanfront home market. This price range tends to be less interest rate sensitive due to the higher percentage of cash transactions. The last year was the strongest year since the downturn and one of the strongest overall historically for Paia and Kuau Oceanfront. Part of that stems from sellers adjusting to the market. The high sale for the year closed well below replacement cost. There is currently one oceanfront home under contract, and sellers have continued to adjust their pricing hoping to find the market. I would anticipate the oceanfront market might remain more active particularly if sellers continue to adjust prices.

The Future of Paia Real Estate

The strength of the Paia market over the last 15 years has been a simple case of supply and demand. Demand has only increased over the years as the town has become more and more renowned. Paia has made a couple of lists for the Best Beach Towns in America. Numerous other publications have cast the spotlight on Maui’s hip beach town. For each new article, there seemed to be more buyers of Paia real estate. All the while, supply has been practically unchanged since North Shore Village was built back in 2003. The town’s growth has been limited by the surrounding cane fields. The closing of the sugar plantation in December of 2016 may mean the end of that growth barrier.

There has already been one large parcel of land sold to the West of town. A 340 acre parcel directly to the West of Paia sold for $9,900,000 in January. The agriculturally zoned land is on the Mauka (Mountain) side of Hana Highway. The land runs from the town’s parking lot and mini bypass up towards the mill and heads West towards Baldwin Beach Park. Plans for the land have not been presented to the public. The coconut wireless has suggested 16 high end agricultural lots with the potential for mixed use development along Baldwin Avenue closer to the mill. I don’t anticipate that development will happen quickly. The subdivision process can be lengthy on Maui. If any rezoning is done, that could lead to additional delays.

While we are unlikely to see changes over the next couple of years, the cane fields may no longer serve as a limitation for growth. Some of this cane land will become ranch land. Still more areas could be sold off for future development.

Buying and Selling Paia Real Estate
You can see all of the Paia Area Real Estate Listings on MauiRealEstate.com. Our office is located in the heart of town in Paia Plaza at 71 Baldwin Avenue. Our agents live in the area and have decades of experience in this market. We watch the market closely and keep our ears to the ground for properties coming up for sale. Contact The Maui Real Estate if you are interested in buying or selling in Paia.