Maui Real Estate Blog

August 2021 Paia Real Estate Market Update

We thought it might be a good time to check in on the Paia Real Estate market. Our office is based in this North Shore beach town. Paia’s real estate market consistently sees strong demand and limited inventory. Demand stems from the combination of the town’s charms, amenities and its proximity to fantastic ocean sports. It is known for surfing, windsurfing, kite surfing, foiling, stand up paddling and more. The limited inventory is due in part to constrained housing supply. Bordered on one side by ocean and the other three sides by agricultural land, there isn’t much room for growth. The total supply of homes grew only slightly since the early 2000s. Prior to Covid-19, the market experienced lower sales volume due to limited inventory. Activity remained limited during the first half of 2020 with momentum building over the last few months of the year. For the first seven months of 2021, activity surged with the most closed transactions since 2018.

This post looks at the activity for the year to date in Paia. it is worth noting that our local MLS lumps, Spreckelsville, Paia and Kuau together. The focus of this post is just on the Paia and Kuau area. We posted on Spreckelsville 2021 market activity in July.

Paia Real Estate Market 2021 Notable Numbers

  • Maui Realtors reported 18 homes sold during the first 7 months of 2021. This is well above the sales volumes over the same periods of both 2019 and 2020.
  • The median price of the homes sold is $900,000. The average price is $2,129,832.44.
  • The lowest sale price in the community for the year is $705,000 for a home in the Skill Village neighborhood. It has three bedrooms, two and half bathrooms and 978 square feet of living space on a 6,739 square foot lot.
  • The highest priced transaction for the year to date is $9,100,000 for a 7,660 square foot home and a 936 square foot cottage on a 1.28 acre oceanfront lot in Kuau. That is the highest ever sales price for a home in Paia or Kuau.
  • We also saw the highest ever sales price for a non-oceanfront home in the Paia and Kuau area. A 2.2 acre compound across the street from the ocean with a 3,171 square foot home, a 989 square foot cottage and two pools closed for $8,375,000.
  • The Skill Village neighborhood had the most sales activity of any neighborhood with 7 sales for the year to date.
  • In addition to the 18 homes sold, there are an additional 6 pending sales at this time.
  • There were also two condos at Kuau Plaza that closed in the first 7 months of the year.
117 Kuau Beach Place set a new record for the highest non-oceanfront sale in the Paia area.
This home in Kuau represented by The Maui Real Estate Team, Inc. set a new record for the highest priced non-oceanfront sale in the Paia and Kuau area. The property included the pod style main house, two pools, a detached garage and a cottage. It closed on June 18th for $8,375,000.

Neighborhood Updates

As mentioned above, Skill Village saw the most sales activity of any neighborhood in the Paia area. Skill Village typically is the most accessible neighborhood by price in the Paia area. The strong demand for entry level homes in the community helped push up pricing. The three all time highest sales prices in Skill Village all happened during the first six months of 2021. They include a new neighborhood high price of $900,000.

Skill Village wasn’t the only entry level neighborhood with higher activity levels. The Paia Halealani neighborhood had 3 sales. While that doesn’t sound like a lot, this subdivision located between North Shore Village and the Paia Community center typically doesn’t see much in the way of activity. Only 3 homes sold in the five years prior to 2021. Sales prices also went up substantially. A home that closed for $1,200,000 shattered the previous neighborhood high sale.

On the other end of the spectrum, there wasn’t much activity in Kuau Bayview with just one listing and one sale. This is typically one of the more in demand neighborhoods in Paia, but there just aren’t many sellers at this time.

While not a neighborhood per say, I wanted to touch on activity in the Paia oceanfront market. There were two ocean front sales in the first seven months of the year. There are two additional oceanfront properties under contract. As mentioned above, the one oceanfront sale set a new record high for the Paia and Kuau area excluding Spreckelsville.

Outlook for the Rest of 2021

While the Maui market isn’t quite as frenzied as the first few months of 2021, it is still a strong seller’s market. Demand in the Maui Real Estate market remains steady. Well priced properties are still tending to go under contract quickly with multiple offer situations common. At this point, supply is likely to have the biggest impact on sales for the rest of 2021 in the Paia and Kuau area. Like many parts of the Maui market, inventory levels are well below normal. There are currently 16 homes listed for sale and 6 of those are already under contract. The remaining 10 include 4 over $7,000,000 and just 2 under $1,000,000. Buyers looking at the entry levels for Paia will find that inventory is particularly limited.

Some mainland markets are starting to see supplies slowly creep up. On Maui inventory remain at or near all time lows. It will be interesting to see if and when we might see inventory levels start to increase in Paia. Supply constraints were impacting market activity prior to Covid. My suspicion is that inventory will be slower to rise in Paia.

Contact The Maui Real Estate Team if you are interested buying or selling property in Paia. The Maui Real Estate keeps close tabs on our back yard market. We would welcome the chance to discuss your real estate needs.

Pete Jalbert

Maui Real Estate Blog

May 2019 Paia Real Estate Market Update

It has been a while since we checked in on the Paia Real Estate Market. Paia town on Maui’s North Shore is where The Maui Real Estate Team office is located. It is one of our office’s core markets. This town has consistently seen strong demand and limited supply. The combination creates steady upward pressure on pricing. This post looks at market activity in the community during the second half of 2018 and the first four months of 2019.

One thing to note. Our local MLS groups Paia, Spreckelsville and Kuau together. We have always thought that Spreckelsville is its own market. As a result, this post looks at Paia and Kuau only. We provided a market update on Spreckelsville in February.

The map above shows sales market activity in Paia and Kuau between July 1, 2018 and May 1, 2019. The red pins represent sales. The yellow pins represent pending sales. The green sales represent active inventory. You can click on individual pins for more details on sales.

Paia Sales Summary

  • There were 11 homes and 3 condos sold during the last six months of 2018. By comparison, there were 8 homes and one condo sold in the second half of 2017.
  • The median price of the homes sold in the second half of 2018 was $878,000. The median price of homes sold in the same period of 2017 was $747,000.
  • During the first four months of 2019, six homes and two condos sold. During the first four months of 2018, there were eight homes sold.
  • The median price of the homes sold during the first four months of 2019 is $1,079,062. The median prices for the homes sold in the first third of 2018 was $800,000.
  • The high sale for the first four months of 2019 is 50 Kai Place. This home and ohana is located on a 12,166 square foot lot on the ocean side of Hana Highway. The value may have been higher to the purchaser than the general market as it provides a potential second access point to the buyer’s oceanfront property. It closed for $2,150,000.
  • The high sale for the last six months of 2018 is 116 Kuau Beach place. This oceanfront property consists of two homes on a lot of approximately 16,335 square feet. It sold for $3,500,000.
  • The lowest priced home to sell during the first four months of 2019 is 514 Pahi Ka Street in Skill Village. This four bedroom, two and a half bath home with 1,670 square feet of living space sold for $649,000.
  • The lowest priced home to sell in the last 6 months of 2018 sold for $350,000. This home, located located behind Cafe Des Amis, was in very poor condition. It was recently renovated and went under contract for $575,000 before it went to market.

Sales Activity in Specific Paia Neighborhoods

Kuau Bayview

Three sales closed in Kuau Bayview between July 1, 2018 and May 1, 2019. More accurately, all three sales closed in the second half of 2018. That is a slight uptick over the two sales that occurred over the same period between 2017 and 2018. While we haven’t seen any sales in the $900,000 plus range as we have in the previous couple of years, that is more due to the size and location of the units that have sold. This neighborhood continues to see strong buyer demand due to its location and general pride of ownership.

Skill Village

Sales activity has been higher in Skill Village than any other neighborhood in Paia over the last five years. Some of that is due to the size of the neighborhood. It is also due to relative affordability. It typically offers some of the lower priced homes in Paia. Four homes sold in the neighborhood between July 1, 2018 and May 1, 2019. That is a slight dip from the five homes that sold in the year prior. Sales seem to be slowing due to a limited supply of inventory. The decreased inventory is helping to push prices up further.

Kuau Plaza

Kuau Plaza, the thirty unit condo in Paia, saw a fair amount of sales activity with three sales in the last half of 2018 and two sales in the first four months of 2019. There is one additional condo in Kuau Plaza that is currently under contract. Units in the building tend to sell quickly when they come on market. The fact that you can vacation rent these condos legally helps boost demand for the property. That is particularly the case with the recent additional restrictions on vacation renting single family homes on island.

Paia Oceanfront

Only one oceanfront home sold in Paia since July 1, 2018. That is down quite a bit from the five sales over the same period of 2017-2018. Some of that stems from lack of inventory. There are only three oceanfront homes on the market at this time. Two of those homes came to market after January first. Oceanfront homes tend to spend more time on the market.

Overall Thoughts on the Statistics and the Paia Market Outlook

Looking at all of the numbers above, the median sales price for the first four months of 2019 is the most striking. Paia broke the million dollar median barrier. The median is driven in part by an increase in values, but also due to a lack of lower priced inventory. At this point, the lowest priced sale for the year is $649,000. I would anticipate that homes priced under $700,000 will remain scarce through the year which will continue the trend of high median sales prices.

If the overall economy continues on its current trajectory, values will continue to push upward. That said, I would not be surprised to see the rate of increase moderate. Homes in Paia are becoming increasingly inaccessible for the average island resident. If prices push up much further, I surmise it will be due to off island vs. local buyers.

Contact the Maui Real Estate Team if you are interested in Paia Property. We know the community and its neighborhoods well. You can browse the current inventory of Paia Real Estate on our website.

Pete Jalbert

Maui Real Estate Blog

August 2018 Paia Real Estate Market Update

As we approach the end of August, I thought this would be a good time to check in on the Paia Real Estate market. We already looked at the Spreckelsville neighborhood last week. This post will look at just Paia and Kuau. Paia has been a strong market due to high demand and constrained supplies. Hemmed in by cane fields, there have been no new subdivisions in the community since back in 2003. Over that time, Paia has continued to grow in prominence and popularity. People have sought out the North Shore town due to its proximity to North Shore wind and wave sports, natural beauty, preponderance of wellness related business and plantation town charm.

Paia Town from Above

With no real growth in housing inventory and increased demand, pricing in the community has been on an upward trajectory since 2011. With limited plans for future development on the immediate horizon, the ingredients are in place for continued upward pressure on prices over the long term. This post looks at real estate activity in the community for the year to date and the outlook for the rest of 2018.

The map above shows real estate activity in Paia during 2018. The red pins represent sales while the yellow pins represent pending sales. You can click on individual pins to learn more about the individual properties. It is worth noting that the map above and the numbers below exclude the Spreckelsville neighborhood. Traditionally, the local Realtor Association lumps Spreckeslville in with Paia in our MLS.

Notable Paia Real Estate Numbers for the Year to Date

  • There have been 17 homes sold as of August 18, 2018 with four homes currently under contract. Last year there were 11 homes sold over that same period of time. That is a 54% increase in sales volume.
  • The median sales price for homes during this period is $615,000. The average price over this period is $1,154,610. Over the same period last year, the median price was 700K with an average price of $1,591,045. That is a 13% drop in median price and a 27% drop in average price.
  • The high sales price for the year to date is $6,350,000 for a house and cottage on just under an acre of oceanfront land.
  • The low sale for the year to date is $377,000 for a short sale in Skill Village. It is worth noting that the 2 bedroom, 1 bath home went under contract all the way back in February of 2017.
  • There were two condos that sold at Kuau Plaza for the year to date with one more pending sale. The high sale is $375,000 for a remodeled one bedroom, one bath. This is above average activity for this small vacation rentable condo complex.
  • There was one bank owned sale and two short sales among the seventeen sales in Paia this year. These are still properties being processed through the system from the last real estate downturn.

Thoughts on the Overall Activity to Date in Paia

The numbers above show a healthy bump in sales activity and a pretty sizable decrease in median and average prices compared to last year. These changes are not due to an increase in demand or a decreased value. Instead, it is a reflection of an increase in supply. For the first seven months of the year, Paia had a respite from the worst of the supply crunch. The more notable increase in supply came at the lower price points in the market. While the inventory for buyers under $650,000 remained relatively thin, it was a lot better than what was available last year. We even saw a few sales under $500,000. Unfortunately, the lowest priced inventory wasn’t that accessible to first time buyers as the condition of two of the three homes required cash buyers. The third was a home that had gone under contract all the way back in February of 2017. While Paia is a small community, it has a pretty diverse housing stock. The paragraphs below look at the sales activity in specific neighborhoods in Paia and Kuau.

Paia Halelani

Paia Halelani is a neighborhood located a few streets past the intersection of Hana Highway and Baldwin Avenue on the Mauka side of Hana Highway. It has had very little turnover in the last few years with no sales since 2015. During 2015, we saw record high sales for the neighborhood. This year, there have been two sales and both were priced under $500,000. That said, this is not a reflection of values dipping. Both homes were in poor condition requiring cash buyers.

Skill Village

Skill Village is located off of Baldwin Avenue about a mile above the intersection of Baldwin and Makawao Avenue. The neighborhood of modest homes sees more turnover than most parts of Paia. That said, 2017 proved to be pretty quiet year for sales with only 2 sales through Mid August. In 2018, much of the increase in Paia market activity can be attributed to a resurgence in Skill Village sales. There have been a total of 9 sales in the neighborhood this year. That is an impressive 450% increase. Skill Village also smashed its all time sales record this year with a close of $800,000. It is worth noting that this larger home was formerly owned by a building contractor who made significant upgrades to the finishing of the property.

Kuau Bayview

Kuau Bayview is another neighborhood that experienced an increase in sales through the middle of August. After only two sales in all of 2017, there have been four sales this year. Three of the four sales were noteworthy. We saw the first ever $1,000,000 sale in the neighborhood, the highest sales price for a home that backs on to Hana Highway and the highest ever cost per square foot sale. It is clear that Kuau Bayview remains an in demand neighborhood for Paia buyers.

Paia Oceanfront

While not a neighborhood per say, I did want to look at the sales activity for Paia Oceanfront Homes. There have been two sales this year. One for a home on Nalu Place on Paia Bay. The other home was further East from downtown on Lae Place. The large oceanfront lot of just under one acre has a home and a cottage. That property has exchanged hands three times in the last ten years. The two sales to date this year equals the same number as last year through the same period of time. There is one other oceanfront home currently under contract.

Aerial Shot of our new listing on Kuau Point with Tavares Bay in the background
An Aerial View of our listing on Kuau Point looking back towards Paia.

Paia Outlook for the Rest of 2018

While the Paia market saw volume increase due to an increase in inventory over the last seven and a half months, the remainder of the year may see limited sales due to shrinking inventory. There are eight listings in Paia and Kuau currently with four of the eight homes under contract. While the pending sales will help to pad the year to date totals, buyers are going to find limited choices unless some additional homes come to market. You can see the current inventory of Paia Real Estate listings on MauiRealEstate.com. Contact the Maui Real Estate Team if you are thinking of buying or selling a property in Paia. We would welcome the chance to be of assistance.

Pete Jalbert

Maui Real Estate Blog

Paia 2016 Real Estate Market Year In Review

Paia town is home base for the Maui Real Estate Team. It also happens to be one of the more in demand real estate markets on island. A bohemian vibe, Plantation town charm, access to great water sports, galleries, good restaurants and shopping have made this little town internationally renowned. We want to take a look back at how the Paia market performed in 2016 and how it might perform in 2017.

One quick note, typically the Spreckelsville neighborhood is lumped in with Paia when people talk about Paia real estate. We believe Spreckelsville is somewhat unique within Paia and opted to exclude it from this overview. We did a separate Sprecks market update at the end of 2016.

The map above shows the 2016 sales as well as the one 2017 sale that was based on a contract from 2016. You can click on individual pins on the map for additional details on the sales.

Looking back at the year in sales, there were some notable numbers that I think are worth highlighting.

  • There were 31 homes sold in Paia and Kuau during 2016 with a median sales price of $600,000 and an average sales price of $1,119,216. In 2015, there were 26 home sales with a median price of $587,000 and an average price of $701,942. That is a 19% increase in volume, a 2% increase in median price and a 59% increase in average price.
  • The highest priced home sale was $6,000,000 for an oceanfront estate in Kuau. The property consists of a 4 bedroom, 4.5 bathroom home with 6,258 square feet of living space and a 1 bedroom, 1 bathroom cottage with 1,050 square feet of living space on approximately 1.283 acres of land. Last year, the high sale was $2,995,000 for a single family oceanfront home on Kuau Point.
  • This year’s high sale was one of three transactions to close for over $4,000,000 in Paia and Kuau during 2016. All three properties were oceanfront.
  • The lowest priced home sale was $455,000 for a 3 bedroom, one bath house with 1,104 square feet of living space on a 6,791 square foot lot. This home is located in the Skill Village Neighborhood. The 2015 low sale was $345,000 for a three bedroom, one bath home with 1,080 square feet of living space on a 6,599 square foot lot.
  • There were three condo sales in 2016 at Kuau Plaza. Kuau Plaza is the only condo in the Paia/Kuau area. The highest of the three sales closed for $325,000.
  • There was one land sale in Paia in 2016. This oceanfront .432 acre lot closed for $2,950,000. There were no land sales in Paia in 2015.
  • There were no bank owned properties or successful short sale transactions that closed in Paia during 2016.

While the numbers above give you a glimpse into market activity in Paia and Kuau as a whole, I also wanted to take a look at some of the individual areas and neighborhoods around Paia.

Kuau Bayview
Kuau Bayview has been one of the strongest performing neighborhoods on the island. It was setting all time high prices before any other neighborhood on the island during this market cycle. The neighborhood holds a lot of appeal to buyers due to location, walkability, consistent pride of ownership and in some cases views. Last year was another strong year for the neighborhood. Record sales prices were set not once but three times. The current record high of $952,000 pushes Kuau Bayview pretty close to the $1,000,000 threshold. In addition to the three high sales, there were two other smaller floor plan sales. The five total sales for 2016 was up sharply from the single sale in 2015. That said, it is worth noting that sales volume in this neighborhood tends to be more of a reflection of available supply instead of demand.

North Shore Village
North Shore Village was the last new development built in Paia. It is hard to believe that it was completed 14 years ago. There were only two sales in the neighborhood in 2016, but one was quite notable. 21 Hoku sold for $750,000. That is a new record high sale by a considerable margin. It sold for 13% more on a cost per square foot basis than the other sale in the neighborhood which only closed 4 months prior. On a cost per square foot basis, it was 19% higher than the previous neighborhood high sale. It will be interesting to see if that will be the new standard or if that sale is viewed as an outlier by future buyers.

Skill Village
Skill Village is another neighborhood that had a record high sale in 2016. A four bedroom, three bathroom home sold for $680,000 in September. It also remains the busiest neighborhood in Paia for sales volume. This was the second straight year with 9 transactions. While the recent high sales price may suggest otherwise, Skill Village provides the most opportunity for buyers who want to get into Paia for below the island’s median sales price for homes.

Oceanfront Paia
While Paia has seen a strong real estate market since the start of the recovery, Paia oceanfront has been slower. There has been a lot of inventory and relatively few sales. We saw a change in dynamics during 2016. After just one sale per year in 2014 and 2015, we saw four transactions in 2016. There were three oceanfront home sales and one land sale.

2017 Market Outlook
After a strong 2016, the big question is what should we expect during 2017 in the Paia Real Estate market. There are few things that I think will drive the market.

Inventory tops the list of market drivers. Island wide, we have seen home inventory shrink. Paia is seeing a more acute decrease in active listings than most other parts of the island. There are currently only 14 active home listings in Paia and Kuau. Three homes are currently under contract. Of the active listings, only five listings are priced less than $1,000,000. The one home priced for less than $500,000 is a short sale facing foreclosure. It also happens to have four additional liens on the property. The lack of available inventory makes it hard for me to imagine that we will come close to last year’s sales volume.

Low inventory and continued demand are a dynamic that is likely to provide continued upward price pressure in the Paia market. Interest rates are something that could prove to be a counterweight to the lack of inventory. Conventional wisdom suggests that we are going to continue to see increases in rates throughout the year. If that comes to fruition, I would suspect that might limit the increase in values particularly in the bottom of the half of the market. Entry level buyers face a tough barrier with current pricing in Paia. Increases in rates will make the cost of ownership that much higher.

We may also look at recent market history for a forecast of the future. Paia has seen significant appreciation since the last downturn, but appreciation has not been linear. If I were to chart values over the last four years, it would likely look like a stair case. Strong increases in value were followed by a pause in values as the market would seemingly catch its breath. Kuau Bayview is a good example of this dynamic. That neighborhood saw a series of record high sales in 2013. The next year and most of 2015 were pretty quiet due to a lack of inventory and sales. As mentioned above, 2015 saw the neighborhood high sales mark broken three times. If the pattern continues, we might see a quieter 2017.

One segment that will be interesting to watch is the oceanfront home market. This price range tends to be less interest rate sensitive due to the higher percentage of cash transactions. The last year was the strongest year since the downturn and one of the strongest overall historically for Paia and Kuau Oceanfront. Part of that stems from sellers adjusting to the market. The high sale for the year closed well below replacement cost. There is currently one oceanfront home under contract, and sellers have continued to adjust their pricing hoping to find the market. I would anticipate the oceanfront market might remain more active particularly if sellers continue to adjust prices.

The Future of Paia Real Estate

The strength of the Paia market over the last 15 years has been a simple case of supply and demand. Demand has only increased over the years as the town has become more and more renowned. Paia has made a couple of lists for the Best Beach Towns in America. Numerous other publications have cast the spotlight on Maui’s hip beach town. For each new article, there seemed to be more buyers of Paia real estate. All the while, supply has been practically unchanged since North Shore Village was built back in 2003. The town’s growth has been limited by the surrounding cane fields. The closing of the sugar plantation in December of 2016 may mean the end of that growth barrier.

There has already been one large parcel of land sold to the West of town. A 340 acre parcel directly to the West of Paia sold for $9,900,000 in January. The agriculturally zoned land is on the Mauka (Mountain) side of Hana Highway. The land runs from the town’s parking lot and mini bypass up towards the mill and heads West towards Baldwin Beach Park. Plans for the land have not been presented to the public. The coconut wireless has suggested 16 high end agricultural lots with the potential for mixed use development along Baldwin Avenue closer to the mill. I don’t anticipate that development will happen quickly. The subdivision process can be lengthy on Maui. If any rezoning is done, that could lead to additional delays.

While we are unlikely to see changes over the next couple of years, the cane fields may no longer serve as a limitation for growth. Some of this cane land will become ranch land. Still more areas could be sold off for future development.

Buying and Selling Paia Real Estate
You can see all of the Paia Area Real Estate Listings on MauiRealEstate.com. Our office is located in the heart of town in Paia Plaza at 71 Baldwin Avenue. Our agents live in the area and have decades of experience in this market. We watch the market closely and keep our ears to the ground for properties coming up for sale. Contact The Maui Real Estate if you are interested in buying or selling in Paia.

Pete Jalbert

Maui Real Estate Blog

Paia Real Estate Market Update May 2016

The Maui Real Estate Team’s office is based out of the North Shore community of Paia. This small town known for its bohemian feel and proximity to world class water sports has been one of the stronger real estate markets on the island over the last 10-15 years. I wanted to take a look at the Paia Real Estate market and how it is fairing to start 2016. This post looks specifically at Paia and Kuau. It does not include the Spreckelsville neighborhood. If you are interested in that area, check out our recent Spreckelsville Market update. In this post, I wanted to show the general activity in Paia during 2016 with comparisons made to sales activity in 2015. I will also drill down and look at sales activity in certain neighborhoods around Paia.

The map below shows activity in the 2016 Paia Real Estate market. The Red pins represent sales. The yellow pins represent pending sales and the green pins represent active homes. You can click on the individual pins for details on each of the properties.

I have also included a map of the 2015 Paia Real Estate Sales for some context.

While the maps give you a visual reference as to what has been happening in Paia, the numbers below may be a little easier to digest. This is a look at the sales volumes, median sales prices, average sales price, some 2015 numbers for comparison and some other notable numbers from the first five months of sales.

  • There have been 15 homes reported sold for the year to date in the Paia/Kuau area with an additional 5 homes under contract. One of those pending homes could conceivably be classified as a land sale due to the condition of the home. In addition to the reported sales, I am aware of one other home that sold without Realtors in Kuau Bayview.
  • By comparison, there were 9 homes that sold over the first five months of 2016. There were a total of 26 home sales throughout all of 2016. That calculates to a 66% increase in sales for the first 5 months of 2016 and 57% of the total sales for all of 2015. It looks the 2016 sales volume is well on its way to beating 2015 totals.
  • The median price for the 15 2015 sales was $600,000 and the average price was $1,372,000. By comparison, the median and average sales prices for the first 5 months of 2015 was $599,000 and $684,222. The difference in average sales price speaks to a couple of big dollar sales that closed earlier this year. The negligible difference in median price does not accurately reflect changes in property value. Perhaps we can glean more when we look at some of the individual neighborhoods below.
  • The highest priced sale during the start of the year was $6,000,000 for an oceanfront estate. The property located at 23 Wa’a on Tavares Bay includes a 4 bed, 4.5 bath home with 6,258 square feet of living space and a 1 bed, 1 bath 1,025 square foot cottage on a 1.28 acre lot.
  • There were two condo sales at Paia’s one and only condo complex, Kuau plaza. There were no sales at Kuau Plaza during the first five months of 2015. There was only one Kuau Plaza sale in all of 2015.
  • There were no land sales in the Paia area during the first five months of the year. There is one property under contract and arguably a second when you factor in the condition of the property’s home. There were no land sales during the same period of 2015. The low volume of sales is not a reflection of demand. There just isn’t any supply. Paia is hemmed in by agricultural land and there are very few remaining vacant lots. That could change in the future with the end of the sugar plantation, but nothing is imminent at this point.

For a small community, Paia has a pretty diverse market of homes. From old Hawaii Plantation Style Homes to luxurious oceanfront estates, there is a significant range in property values. With that in mind, it is worth looking at some of the market activity of some selected neighborhoods around Paia.

Kuau Bayview
Kuau Bayview was one of the more resilient neighborhoods coming out of the downturn. While many areas of Maui were just starting to see modest appreciation, Kuau Bayview was setting new market highs. The neighborhood offers proximity to town and area beaches, a community park, good views from selected homes and consistent pride of ownership. There have been two sales publicized in the MLS this year, one sale that did not involve Realtors and two pending sales. The three sales to date have all set new record highs for the community. Two of the three sales closed in the mid $900,000s. All three homes are two story, have good ocean views and they have been remodeled and upgraded. The two homes under contract are both smaller single level floor plans. While these homes will not set any new high prices when they close, they will be among the highest ever sales price for their floor plan.

Additional activity in the neighborhood during 2016 will be predicated on new inventory coming to market. Potential sellers should realize that the run of high sales does not necessarily mean the next home to hit the market will set a new record. For a relatively small neighborhood, there is a decent range in home values. The highest priced homes tend to be located towards the top of the neighborhood where views are better and there is little to no road noise from Hana Highway. Remodels and additional square footage are also factors in pricing.

North Shore Village
North Shore Village was built in 2003. It was the last new development in Paia. The two story homes are located on small lots. The area also offers consistent pride of ownership, and it is just a few minutes walk from all of the amenities of downtown Paia. Due to the limited number of homes in this neighborhood, we don’t see a lot of turnover. In 2015, there were no sales in the neighborhood. This year there has been one sale and one additional property is pending. The home that closed was a smaller two bedroom floor plan that sold for $589,000. The pending sale is particularly noteworthy as it was listed for $780,000. That is well above previous sales in the neighborhood. The home was well maintained, but not significantly upgraded. It is rumored to be under contract for close to the asking price. That would smash the neighborhood high sale. If say it were to sell for $740,000, it would be selling for 26% above the last neighborhood sale for a home that is only 145 square feet larger.

This is another neighborhood that would require new inventory if there is going to be additional sales activity in 2016. It will be interesting to see how the next home that comes to market is priced. Will this pending sale reset prices in the neighborhood or will the market view the one high sale as a one off close?

Halelani
Halelani is a small neighborhood nestled between North Shore Village and Kuau Bayview. It is behind the Paia Community Center. Most of the homes were built in the early to mid 70s and they tend to be modest in size and construction. There have been some nice remodels in the neighborhood over the last decade. It is a desirable neighborhood due to proximity to downtown and area beaches. It also offers a lower price point under $700,000. Halelani was pretty busy in 2015 with 5 sales in the neighborhood. Those sales included the two highest neighborhood sales of all time. This year, it has been quiet with no listings and no sales reported to date. With limited Paia inventory under $700,000, well priced new inventory inventory would be well received.

Skill Village
Skill Village is a neighborhood of more modest homes built in the mid to late 80s. The neighborhood is located above the old Mill in Paia close to Paia Elementary School. It is the primary location for entry level homes in Paia, but there have also been some homes that have been significantly updated. This neighborhood has had some pretty healthy activity this year and last year. There have been five sales thus far this year, with two additional pending sale and one active listing. Last year, there were 3 sales in the first five months of 2015 and 9 total sales for the year.

There were more high priced sales in 2015 than what we have seen to date in 2016, but that is a reflection of the homes sold rather than market dynamics. There was actually one home sold in both 2015 and 2016 with little to no new improvements. On August 20, 2015, 32 Palekana sold for $530,000. Less than 7 months later, it sold again for $561,500 on March 7, 2016. That is almost 6% increase in that period of time. Other signs of appreciation in the neighborhood are apparent when you compare the low sales in 2015 with the low sales in 2016. The lowest priced sale for the year to date was $465,000. Last year, there were two homes that sold for $385,000.

I would imagine, we will continue to see steady activity in Skill Village this year if there is sufficient inventory. Paia remains an in demand community and this is one of the more accessible neighborhoods for potential buyers.

Kuau Point
The Kuau Point neighborhood is a mix of older plantation homes, newer homes and oceanfront properties. Neighborhood amenities like a high end convenience store, Mama’s Fish House, Mama’s Beach and a great launch for wind and waves sports make this little community on the ocean side of Hana Highway very desirable. There have been three home sales in the neighborhood this year, with one oceanfront lot under contract and one new oceanfront home listing. The range of sold homes provides a pretty good cross section of Kuau Point properties. At the low end, there is a small residential condo just off of Hana Highway that sold for $590,000. With only 720 square feet of living space, it came at a pretty hefty price. That said, its size is offset by its proximity to amenities. The middle sale was a former vacation rental just a stone’s throw from Mama’s Fish House. This home sold for $1,323,000. The high sale was $4,850,000 for a house and cottage on .4139 acres of oceanfront. Last year, there were 3 sales during the first five months of the year and 7 total sales throughout the year.

Paia Oceanfront
Paia Oceanfront isn’t a neighborhood. This class of property spans across a number of neighborhoods and there is some overlap with my Kuau Point discussion. That said, oceanfront is it’s own unique market segment that merits a separate discussion. It is also the only part of the Paia market where you can find an abundance of inventory. There are currently 10 active oceanfront home listings in the Paia/Kuau area. You could make a case that one of the home listings could be thought of as more of a land listing. The 1.1 acre oceanfront lot we have in Paia is one of the more stunning parcels along the coast. The older structures have less value and the heavy lifting has been done to get approvals to construct a new home. There is also one oceanfront lot on the market that is currently under contract. Thus far this year, there have been two oceanfront sales. That is ahead of the one oceanfront home sold last year.

Market dynamics for oceanfront properties in Paia are pretty interesting right now. The two homes sold and the lot under contract are an uptick in activity over last year. That said, the most recent close could put some downward pressure on list prices. Sellers have been shooting for premium prices. A number of those asking prices feel high in light of the sale of 23 Wa’a. The cost per square foot was significantly lower and the quality of construction was significantly higher than some of the other homes currently on the market. It will be interesting to see if the existing inventory is able to shrug this off as an outlier sale or if buyers successfully leverage the 23 Wa’a sale to negotiate lower prices.

Overall Paia Market Thoughts
The overall Maui Real Estate market has seen upward pressure on pricing due to a lack of new supply and strong demand fueled by compelling interest rates and high rental costs. These issues are particularly acute in the Paia area where the lack of new construction dates all the back to 2003 and market demand has increased as Paia has become seen a significant increase in demand from second home owners. Those dynamics would suggest that we may continue to see upward pricing pressure in Paia as long as the economy maintains or outperforms current level and borrowing costs do not increase too much. That being said, I would not be surprised to see the rapid rates of appreciation we have seen in some neighborhoods cool off. Price increases in Paia tend not to be linear. We get something of a stair step effect where prices shoot up and then level off for a while before they increase again. I can see that happening in a few neighborhoods. If you made it to the end of this tome, you have to be pretty interested in the Paia market. Feel free to contact us if you have questions about the market or if you need assistance with your real estate needs. We would welcome the chance to learn about your needs. You can find more details about the current Paia Real Estate Listings on MauiRealEstate.com.

Pete Jalbert

Maui Real Estate Blog

Paia 2014 Real Estate Review and 2015 Outlook

Just a few days ago, we posted a year end review and 2015 outlook for the Spreckelsville Neighborhood. Today, I wanted to take a look at the town of Paia and how its real estate market performed in 2014. We also wanted to give some thoughts on what might be expected of this market during 2015. Spreckelsville is actually a part of Paia, but we split the two communities in our analysis because of the relatively unique characteristics of the respective markets. That means this post will focus exclusively on Paia and the Kuau area of Paia.

Paia has been one of the stronger real estate markets on the island since the downturn. Simple supply and demand plays a factor in the strength of Paia’s housing market. There has been no new housing created in the Paia area since the construction of North Shore Village in 2003. Since that time, Paia has seen demand grow considerably as more and more people have sought to relocate or buy second homes in this funky North Shore Beach town. Buyers are attracted to the bohemian vibe, good restaurants, yoga studios, cute boutiques, the island’s best health food store and some of the most consistent wind and waves on the planet for water sports. The demand for Paia Real Estate was particularly evident in 2013 when some neighborhoods in the area hit new record highs. Did Paia continue at those same levels in 2014? Find out below as we give you the numbers.

The map below shows all of the sales that occurred in Paia and Kuau area during 2013. Click on the individual pins on the maps to learn more details about the sales.

There were a few notable numbers from the 2014 Paia sales figures that I thought were worth sharing.

  • There were 18 homes sold in Paia during 2014. That is down from the 20 homes sold in 2013. That is a 10% drop in activity.
  • The median sales price for homes in Paia during 2014 was $634,750. The 2013 median was $678,500. That is a 6% drop in median price.
  • There were three condo sales at Kuau Plaza in 2014. There were three condo sales at Kuau Plaza in 2013.
  • Kuau Plaza appears to have seen very strong growth in values during the year. The only one bedroom that sold in 2013 closed for $200,000. All three sales in 2014 were one bedrooms and their median price was $279,000. That is a 40% increase in median price. In this case, the change in median is pretty closely correlated with the change in value.
  • There was only one land sale in 2014 compared to four land sales in 2013. Vacant Land is in finite supply in Paia. If we are to see any more than one sale a year, it will likely come from the flip of recently sold lots.
  • There were two short sales and one bank owned transaction in Paia during 2014. There was one bank owned sale and one short sale in 2013.

There are a couple of things that deserve comment regarding the Paia market in 2014. After a frenetic 2013 that saw big price increases and a strong market recovery, things appear to have leveled off a little in 2014. This was evident in slightly lower transaction volumes and to some extent the lower medians. It is even more evident when you look at a neighborhood like Kuau Bayview. That market was in a frenzy in 2013, but buyers were reticent to push prices in 2014. This is in line with what we predicted during our Paia 2014 Outlook. In some ways this is a relief, as it would have been unsustainable in the long term to continue at higher rates of appreciation.

The Paia luxury market was relatively quiet this year with only two sales over $2,000,000. More of the high end sales activity was occurring down the road in Spreckelsville during 2014 where there were five sales over $2,000,000.

It will be interesting to see what happens with the market in 2015 in Paia. The map below shows the current inventory and the sales that we have seen in the year to date. Green dots represent active listings. Yellow pins show properties that are currently under contract and red dots are sales that have closed this year. You can click on each of the pins for additional details.

It appears as if 2015 is off to a pretty solid start with three homes sold and an additional four properties under contract. There was one notable sale in Kuau Bayview with a new record high sales price established. I would expect that we will see similar dynamics to what we experienced last year with relatively modest price appreciation. If sales continue at their current pace, we should see more closes than we did in 2014.

It will be particularly interesting to watch the luxury and oceanfront home market in Paia. There are more oceanfront homes for sale in Paia than any other community on island. That gives potential buyers a lot of options. It is notable that there are no oceanfront homes for sale in Spreckelsville. Unless that changes, that might divert more potential high end buyers to the Paia and Kuau area.

The Maui Real Estate Team’s office is located in the heart of Paia. We know the community and its real estate inventory well. Contact The Maui Real Estate Team if you are interested in buying or selling property in the Paia area. We would welcome the opportunity to discuss your real estate needs and offer a free consultation. You can check find the current inventory of Paia Real Estate Listings on MauiRealEstate.com.

Pete Jalbert