Welcome to the 15th edition of our market musings. The last musings was a little more of a backwards looking post as we reviewed notable numbers from the June Stats and took a deep dive into the land market during the first half of the year. This edition focuses on statistics that might be better suited to addressing current market conditions. We also take a longer look at the Wailea and Makena markets. We review the first six months of sales activity and take a look at current market conditions and the market outlook. There is a lot to digest in this post so you may want to be suitably caffeinated before proceeding.

Inventory

While June was a month of substantive increases in inventory, thus far the month of July has seen more limited change. The inventory of single family homes is actually lower now than it was on June 30th. At that time, there were 241 active listings. As of July 23rd, the inventory decreased 3% to 234 active listings.

For the condo market, the inventory of active listings increased modestly. On June 30th, the number of active listings was 199. As of July 23rd, the inventory increased 7.5% to 214 active listings.

Maui’s single family home inventory trends appear to be diverging from the rest of the country when it comes to inventory. That said, we are seeing variability in our market place. Inventory and levels of activity vary by price point and community. We should have an updated break down of inventory trends by price point shortly after the first of the month.

Price Reductions

As of July 23rd, 35.04% of all active listings reduced their price at least once. That is up modestly from July 4th when 34.03% of all active home listings reduced asking price.

For condos, 27.57% of all active condos reduced their price as of July 23rd. That is up from 24.63% of condos on July 4th.

We are little bit ahead of the national average when it comes to price reductions, but the number of price reductions appears to be increasing at a slower rate than national markets.

Price reductions are still climbing quickly.

34.8% of the market has taken a price cut.

It'll be October before price cuts level off. Over 40% at that time.

Sellers beware this only gets harder as the year goes on.

4/6 pic.twitter.com/jXnJ1K5jKD

— Mike Simonsen 🐉 (@mikesimonsen) July 25, 2022

It is interesting to see our rate of price reductions increasing slowly. Prior to the Covid boom, Maui was always a place where sellers tended to be slower to reduce price. Longer days on market were more common. One question we find ourselves asking a lot around the office is what a new real estate normal will look like on island moving forward? Will we go back to typical Maui seller behavior pre-covid or will seller behavior more closely resemble mainland markets? It may take some time to determine the answer to that question.

Quick Sales

Another metric we started tracking earlier in the year is the percentage or properties that go under contract within 10 days of coming to the market. Of the homes and condos listed between July 1st and July 8th, 31.91% went under contract within 10 days of coming to market. That is actually up from June 14th-21st when only 25.37% of listings went under contract within 10 days of coming to market. That said, this is also the first time this year when the percentage of homes going under contract within 10 days was lower than the same period of 2019.

It is also worth noting that there is difference between the home and condo market. Of the homes listed between July 1st and July 8th, 23.53% went under contract within 10 days of coming to market. Of the homes listed during the same seven day period of 2019, 25.81% went under contract within 10 days. The condo market continues to see properties go under contract at a brisker pace. Of the condos listed between July 1st and July 8th, 36.67% went under contract within 10 days. That is just ahead of condos listed during the same seven days of 2019 when 36.11% went under contract within 10 days

Some Quick Thoughts on Current Conditions

It’s a strange market out there. Buyer demand is well below what we saw during 2021 and earlier this year with far fewer properties under contract. That said, inventory levels remain well below normal in most communities around the island. It’s likely that the lack of inventory is one reason why we aren’t seeing more price reductions.

It seems as if there is a little bit stronger demand in the condo market than the single family home market judging by the higher percentage of properties going under contract within 10 days. That comes despite a little more condo inventory coming to market.

Buyers will find conditions less competitive than earlier this year. However, well priced properties in areas and price points with low demand can still generate multiple offers. Overall, sellers can expect longer days on market and fewer buyers. Sellers should be particularly mindful of market conditions specific to their community and price point when pricing their property. It’s also worth remembering that negotiation and give and take is a lot more likely today than it was six months ago.

Wailea and Makena Market Overview

This is the first of a handful of features we will be doing in our market musings looking at specific communities on the island. Today, we are focusing on the resort markets of Wailea and Makena. Its worth noting that I used the term markets plural. While our MLS lumps the two areas together, the two communities have differences that make them unique. Wailea is significantly more developed with large hotels, a shopping center and a lot more neighborhoods and condo complexes. While expensive, the entry point for Wailea is much lower than Makena. Makena is smaller, less developed and has the highest concentration of high priced homes on the island.

Wailea Home Sales

This is a look back at single family home sale activity in Wailea during the first six months of 2022. These are some of the most notable numbers from that time.

• Maui Realtors reported 17 homes sold in the Wailea Resort in the first half of the year. That is down 43% from the 30 sales reported during the first six months of 2021.
• Inventory constraints played a significant part in the reduced sales. Decreased demand may be another factor in the second quarter of the year, but it is hard to say definitively.
• Seven of seventeen sales closed for over asking price. Ten of seventeen sold for asking price or above. Demand was strong for the limited inventory available.
• Nine of the seventeen sales were reported to be all cash transactions.
• The median and average price of the homes sold in the first six months of the year is $2,800,000 and $3,478,441 respectively. This is actually down from last year when the median and average price of $3,475,000 and $3,973,168.
• To be clear, the value of homes in Wailea did not depreciate this year. This shift in medians and averages stems from a difference in the composition of inventory sold. The chart below shows the difference between the first halves of 2021 and 2022. While there were still a fair number of sub-$2,000,000 sales in 2021, there was also a much higher volume of transactions for $4,000,000 and above in 2021. This stems in part from the much lower inventory of homes above $4,000,000 in Wailea this year.

• The lowest priced home to sell during the first half of the year in Wailea closed for $2,270,000. That buyer purchased a 3 bedroom, 4 bath home with 2,562 square feet of living space and a pool in the Wailea Kai subdivision.
• The highest priced Wailea sale during the first half of the year closed for $8,750,000. The home in Wailea Highlands includes 4 bedrooms, 7 baths and 8,657 square feet of living space on just under a half acre.
• Wailea Golf Vistas experienced the most sales activity with 5 transactions. Wailea Pualani saw the second most sales with 4 transactions.

Wailea Condo Sales

The numbers below are some of the most noteworthy from the first six months of condo sales in Wailea.

• Maui Realtors reported 77 condo sales in Wailea during the first half of the year. That is down 51% from the 157 sales reported during January-June of 2021.
• Again, scarcity was a big factor in the decrease in sales. At one point in the first quarter, active Wailea inventory dipped to 6 condos. Some of the difference between the two years can also be attributed to new developer sales in Makali’i. The 2021 sales were boosted by 20 closes in Makalii based on contracts signed 2-3 years prior.
• Of the 77 sales, 26 or 33.77% sold for over asking price. An impressive 54 out of 77 sales or 70.13% of all transactions closed for asking price or above. Again, this points to strong demand and competition for the limited supply.
• Maui Realtors reported that 48 out of 77 or 62% of closed transactions were cash purchases.
• The median and average prices of condos sold in Wailea came in at $1,630,000 and $2,408,720 respectively. The median price increased 20.91% and the average price increased 26.56%. These numbers reflect not only increasing values, but also a greater proportion of high priced transactions.
• The lowest priced Wailea condo sale during the first part of the year closed for $650,000. That was for a studio unit in Wailea Ekahi.
• The highest priced condo to sell during the first half of 2022 is located in Wailea Beach Villas. The ground floor unit in the D building closed for $12,500,000. The 3 bedroom, 3.5 bathroom unit includes 2,889 square feet of living space and a private plunge pool.
• Wailea Ekahi and the Palms at Wailea had the most sales activity of any complex in Wailea Resort to start the year with 14 sales each.

Makena Home Sales

• Maui Realtors reported 7 home sales in the Makena area during the first half of 2022. That is the same number as what was reported during the first half of 2021.
• Two of the seven sales closed for over asking price. None of the homes sold for above asking. As you get to these price points, competition decreases and negotiation is more common.
• The median sales price for the 7 Makena homes sold is $17,200,000. The average sales price came in at $18,825,564. That is a 72% increase in median sales price over last year’s $10,000,000 sale. It is a 35.94% increase over last year’s average sales price of $13,848,071.
• This year’s low sale came in Makena came in at a $12,875,000. The oceanfront home in Makena Place includes 4 bedrooms, 4.5 bathrooms and 4,304 square feet of living space.
• The highest priced sale in Makena and the highest sale on Maui for the year to date closed for $26,490,700. That estate includes 8 bedrooms, 8 bathrooms, 10,464 square feet of living space plus a pool house on an acre across the street from the ocean.
• In terms of activity within subdivisions, two homes closed in Makena Place and two homes closed in One Palauea Bay.

Makena Condo Sales

• Maui Realtors reported 9 condo sales in Makena during the first 6 months of 2022. That is down 36% from last year’s first half tally of 14 sales.
• Two of the nine sales sold for full price. No sales closed for above asking price.
• The median and average prices of the 9 condos sold are $4,000,000 and $4,950,645 respectively. Median increased 42.98% over last year’s median of $2,797,500. The average price increased 26.89% over last year’s average of $3,901,500.
• The lowest priced condo transaction in Makena closed for $3,250,000 for a 2 bedroom, 2.5 bathroom 2,745 square foot unit at Na Hale O Makena.
• The highest priced condo transaction in Makena during the first six months of the year closed for $11,256,000. That was a Molokini Residence at the Makena Golf and Beach Club with 5 bedrooms, 5.5 bathrooms and 4,430 square feet of living space.
• Makena Surf saw the most sales activity during the first half of the year with 4 closes.

Wailea and Makena Market Outlook

Of course all of the sales referenced above reflect past market demand. The million dollar question, or twenty million dollar question in the case of some Makena residences, is what can we expect for the second half of the year? Surprising market behavior over the last two years makes any sort of prognostication a challenge and current economic uncertainty makes it that much harder. That said, it is worth at least touching on both the supply and demand side of the equation.

Wailea and Makena Inventory

On the supply side, there is still some variability by location and property type. There are currently 8 active home listings in Wailea with 4 pending. That is a pretty limited supply considering sales and current pending. It is worth noting that of that supply, a couple of sellers are reaching for some pretty big numbers for their respective neighborhoods. While record highs are normal of late, some of the prices are well above previous neighborhood highs. It is also worth noting that only 3 of 6 subdivisions have active inventory, and 5 of 8 listings are in Wailea Pualani.

There are currently 24 active condo listings in Wailea with 8 pending sales. A quick side note, the pending number does not include the 75 pending new developer sales at La’i Loa at Wailea Hills. This is up quite a bit from the 6 active listings on February 1. That said, it is still less than 2 months supply. Again, when honing in on certain condo complexes the inventory is particularly limited. There are six condo complexes with just 1 active listing and 5 condo complexes with no active inventory. It is also worth considering that 3 of the active listings are seeking prices well above all time highs in their complex. There are a number of other sellers seeking new high prices for their respective location or floor plan in their development.

There are currently 5 active home listings and 1 pending sale in Makena. That’s almost 5 months of inventory based on the first half of the year, but it is worth noting that the 7 sales during the first halves of 2021 and 2022 is pretty extraordinary activity. That makes the 5 active listings a healthy inventory for prospective buyers with the considerable means necessary to shop in this part of the island.

The Makena condo market inventory is literally zero. If you are looking for a place in one of the three condo developments or the Makena Golf and Beach Club, it is a waiting game.

The big unknown is what type of new inventory we may see through the end of the year. Inventory growth in July thus far is negligible.

What about Wailea and Makena Demand?

With Makena and Wailea predominantly second home markets, what type of demand will see from second home buyers in a shifting market? The amount of cash involved with transactions makes the market less sensitive, but not completely immune to increases in mortgage rates. Nationally, second home demand is down according to Redfin reports. What about some of the current market indicators we’ve used for the general market?

Of the eight properties listed in the area this month, two went under contract in less than 10 days or 25%. That is just a hair better than the overall Maui market. Of the current Wailea condo inventory, 29% of active listings reduced their asking price. For Wailea Homes, 28.57% of active listings reduced their price. For Makena Homes, 60% or 3 of 5 listings reduced their price. The Wailea numbers are below what we are seeing for price reductions island wide. The one caveat I might add is that historically, resort market listings are slower to adjust price. The Makena number is high, but it also is worth mentioning that pricing properties in the $10,000,000 plus range comes with its own set of challenges. These are large, very unique custom homes not as well suited to comparative valuations.

One last thing to mention is seasonality. Looking at the chart above, you can see that there is a general seasonality to the market in Wailea Home Sales with more properties going under contract during the first half of the year than the second. The same is true for Wailea condos. Makena is a little more random due to its small sample size. If the market follows typical behavior, we should expect less sales activity this year.

Based on all of the above, the Wailea and Makena markets should see less activity for the remainder of the year due to the combination of market trends, seasonality and limited supply. Barring a massive influx of supply and/or a significant worsening of the current economic situation, the limited supply should keep prices elevated.

You can search through the current inventory of Wailea and Makena Homes for Sale and Wailea and Makena Condos for Sale on our site.

A Little Maui Beauty to Brighten This Post

A reminder: Maui no ka oi! pic.twitter.com/mMOk54SXiR

— Maui Hawaii (@Maui) July 28, 2022

Contact The Maui Real Estate Team

Congratulations if you made it to the end of this post. It was a long one! It also must mean you are pretty interested in the Maui market. Feel free to Contact The Maui Real Estate Team with questions or for assistance buying or selling property on Maui. We would welcome the chance to be of assistance.

Our local MLS groups the adjoining communities of Wailea and Makena together. While the two areas border each other and both offer high end properties, there are enough differences that they are somewhat distinct markets. While Wailea may be a more recognized name nationally and internationally, Makena tends to see the highest home values on the island. The recent addition of Discovery Land Company’s Makena Golf and Beach Club further cemented this beautiful stretch of coastline as Maui’s most exclusive community. Last week, we posted about the year to date market conditions in Wailea. This post looks at the busy year to date of real estate activity in Makena.

Notable Numbers from This Year’s Makena Home Sales

• Maui Realtors reported 10 home sales in Makena for the year to date as of October 9th.
• This is quite a contrast from the complete lack of sales activity during the same period of 2020.
• It is worth noting that this is the busiest January – October period for Makena Home Sales of any year on MLS records.
• The median price of the ten homes sold is $10,000,000. The average price is $14,151,650.
• A home in the Keauhou subdivision set the high water mark for sales with a $25,000,000 price tag. The newly constructed 6,561 square foot home sits on 2.496 acres of land across the street from the ocean.
• This was one of two reported sales to eclipse the $20,000,000 mark in Makena this year.
• It is worth noting that the coconut wireless is reporting a third unreported sale that came in around $70,000,000. If rumors are correct, the buyer is a rather prominent tech executive.
• A home that sold across the street from Big Beach was the least expensive sale in Makena this year. The 4,080 square foot home on .71 acres closed for $6,337,500.
• Five of eleven home sales in Makena this year are beachfront properties.
• According to MLS records, the Realtors involved reported all sales as cash purchases. It is worth noting that some of these “cash” sales may involve financing in the background with no financing contingencies in the contract.

Thoughts on recent Makena Home Sales and the Makena Home Market Outlook

Like many higher priced home markets around the country, the Makena area experienced robust activity during Covid-19. It just took a little longer for the ball to get rolling. After just one sale in all of 2020, the market really took off after the first of the year. Not only are the 10 sales stronger than any other 9 plus month period, this year’s activity to date is stronger than any full calendar year for Makena on MLS records.

Looking ahead to the rest of the year, inventory figures to be a factor for the Makena home market. At this point in time, there are just two active listings with one home under contract. Barring an influx of new inventory or off market sales, 2021 won’t have too much of an opportunity to pad its record. Assuming there is no drastic change in the overall economic picture, this should be something of a seller’s market as we enter the new year.

Notable Numbers from This Year’s Makena Condo Sales

• Maui Realtors reported 15 condo sales in Makena as of October 9th. That calculates to a 50% increase in activity over the 10 sales that closed during the same period of 2020.
• The median price of the fifteen condo sales is $3,050,000. The average price is $3,973,000. This is actually down from last year’s median and average sales price of $5,069,500 and $4,734,275 respectively.
• Makena Surf was the busiest development for sales activity with eight closes. Na Hale O Makena came next with 5 closed transactions. There were 2 closes at the Kula Villas at Makena Golf and Beach Resort.
• The highest priced transaction closed for $12,500,000. That was for one of the units at the Kula Villas. It is four bedroom, four and a half bathroom condo with 3,625 square feet of living space.
• The lowest priced sale closed for $1,500,000. The 3 bedroom, 2.5 bath unit at Na Hale O Makena has a garden view.
• Nine of fifteen Makena condo sales this year were were cash transactions.

Thoughts on the Makena Condo Market

While the fifteen condo sales in Makena may not seem like a lot, the year to date sales are stronger than any similar time period on MLS records. There is a slight asterisk to those numbers in that for much of the MLS history, there was only one or two condo developments in the area. The addition of the Kula Villas means more potential inventory to sell. Nonetheless, this is still a pretty strong year for buyer activity.

Looking forward to the rest of the year, the Makena market isn’t exactly teeming with inventory with four active listings and no pending sales. This will be the biggest constraint on new sales activity for the rest of the year. The Makena Golf and Beach Resort does tend to have a fair number of properties that never make it on to the MLS. We could see a few sales pop out of that development before the end of the year.

Contact The Maui Real Estate Team

Please contact the Maui Real Estate Team if you are thinking of buying or selling property in Makena. Buyers can search the current inventory of Makena Homes for Sale and Makena Condos for Sale on MauiRealEstate.com. Buyers let us know if there is a specific area of Makena that might be of interest. With the limited inventory available, we would be happy to keep our ears open for unlisted properties. For sellers, limited supply and strong demand make the present a great time to be on the market. Feel free to reach out to us for a free consultation and price opinion on your property.

It’s the weekend. Or at least I think it is. With stay at home rules in place, many buyers are turning to video and 3D tours as a safe way to tour property. We already posted video and 3D tours for the Maui Real Estate Team’s listings. If you need a little distraction and you’ve binged all that Netflix has to offer, I thought we might take you on a tour of some of the island’s more impressive oceanfront listings. Whether you are an oceanfront home buyer stuck on the mainland waiting for the all clear to fly out, or you just want a little Maui eye candy, we hope you enjoy the tour.

9 Bay Drive, Kapalua

This beautiful property of just under 10 acres is currently the most expensive active listing on Maui. The eight bedroom, eight and half bath home has 6,645 square feet of interior living space and a stunning pool area. Situated on a bluff overlooking the Pailolo Channel between Maui and Molokai, the views of the ocean and neighbor islands are stunning.

Hawaii Life Real Estate Brokers listed this home for $37,500,000. Sold in 2020 and relisted in 2021. Contact The Maui Real Estate Team for additional details.

4508 Makena Road

This new home is located along one of our favorite beaches on the island. Palauea or White Rock is a beautiful sandy beach with good snorkeling at either end. The four bedroom, five and half bathroom home has 5,065 square feet of living space. Never lived in before, the builders completed construction in 2018.

Sold in 2021.

11485 Honoapiilani Highway

I always loved this Olowalu Oceanfront home for its classic Kama’aina style. While built in 2001, it features a lot of the best design elements of 1930s Hawaii Architetcure. The main house is four bedrooms, five and a half baths and includes over 6,065 square feet of living space. There is a 75 foot long pool, a separate one bedroom ohana and a third structure with a gym steam room and suite above.

Listed by Hawaii Life Real Estate Brokers, the asking price is $9,395,000. Sold in 2021!

7381 Makena Road

This Makena property isn’t direct oceanfront, but it is pretty darn close. Makena Road is what separates this home from a small rocky beach. Built by renowned local builder John Cahill, this 3 bedroom, 3.5 bath home includes 3,919 square feet of living space. There is a separate two bedroom, two bath cottage.

Hawaii Life Real Estate Brokers listed the home for $12,990,000. Sold in 2021!

Wailea Point 102

There are some pretty stunning oceanfront condo options. Wailea Point 102 is arguably one of the best. It is a double unit overlooking Wailea Beach, Ma’alaea Bay, Kaho’olawe, Molokini and Lanai. The three bedroom, three bath unit includes 3,805 square feet of living space. The video for the property shows a lot of the scenery surrounding Wailea Point. It is easy to see why. This is one of the premier locations on the island with the Four Seasons and the Grand Wailea located to the North and the Fairmont Kealani located just to the South.

Watch this video on YouTube.

Island Sotheby’s Realty listed the property for $17,995,000. Sold in 2021!

Makena Surf G 301/302

This is another double unit just down the coastline from Wailea in Makena. Makena Surf offers beautiful vistas and a great setting on Po’olenalena Beach. The combination of two units means plenty of space for friends and family with five bedrooms and five bathrooms.

Watch this video on YouTube.

Romvari Realty listed this beautiful condo for $6,999,999. Sold in 2020!

More Oceanfront Options

If you need to binge on more Maui Oceanfront Property, you can check out the full inventory of Maui Oceanfront Homes and Maui Oceanfront Condos. Contact The Maui Real Estate Team for assistance buying or selling oceanfront homes on Maui.

Why is the Maui condo market showing signs of improvement in 2016? That is one of the questions, I asked myself in this post and did my best to answer by taking a deeper dig into this year’s condo sales. You will find all of those thoughts and a rundown on the overall July 2016 Maui Real Estate Stats. Without further ado, here are the July numbers and some thoughts and context on the market.

July 2016 Median Prices and Sales Volumes

There were 93 home sales with a median price of $600,000. In July of 2015, there were 129 sales with a median price of $590,000. That is a 28% decrease in volume and approximately a 2% increase in median price.

There were 110 condos sold for a median price of $440,000. Last July, there were 94 sales with a median sales price of $394,000. That is a 17% increase in median price and a 12% increase in median price.

There were 7 land sales with a median price of $490,000. There were 13 sales in July of 2015 with a median price of $250,000. This is a 46% decrease in volume and a 96% increase in median price.

Notable Numbers from the July Real Estate Sales Activity
While compiling the sales volumes and median prices, I came across some other noteworthy numbers.

• The highest priced home sale in July closed for $18,000,000. The Beachfront Oli Oli Kai Property on Stable Road in Spreckelsville closed for a new North Shore record. That said, it could of or maybe should have been classified as three separate sales. The property was condominiumized into three separate units. The three units included a total of three homes and approximately 3.6 acres.
• This was one of 7 home sales over $2,000,000. The six other sales included three properties in Lahaina and one sale each in Wailea, Kula and Ka’anapali.
• The highest priced condo sale closed for $3,850,000. The 3 bed, 3.5 bath unit at Montage Kapalua has 2,789 square feet of living space.
• That was one of 10 sales over $1,500,000 to close in July. The other sales included 2 closes at Ho’olei and one each at Ka’anapali Ali’i, Sugar Cove, Wailea Elua, Makena Surf, Honua Kai, The Whaler and The Palms at Manele.
• The high land sale for the month closed for $1,800,000. The four acre lot is located in Kapalua Plantation Estates. There was one other $1,000,000 plus land sale this month. That 17.47 acre lot is located in the Makila Ranch Area of Launiupoko.
• There were 13 bank owned properties that closed in July. That is down from the 20 that closed in July of 2015. There was only one successful short sale completed last month compared to the 8 completed in July of 2015.

New July Pending Sales Contracts
We track the number of properties that go pending in a particular month. It gives us a more recent data point on buyer demand and it also helps us to better suss out whether the prior month’s sales activity is something of a one off event or part of a broader trend. I will spell that out a little better as we review last month’s pending data.

Looking at the pending sales activity, the number of homes that went under contract in July was down compared to last year. The number of condos that went under contract was the same as last year and land pending sales were up ever so slightly. The decrease in home sales is part of what appears to be a continuing trend that we have seen over the last few months. Shrinking home inventory, particularly at lower price points, has led to a reduction in sales activity. The condo market appears to be continuing a recent trend of sales at or above last year’s totals. I will delve into that in more detail below. While land sales aren’t exactly booming, it was good to see that they were up slightly from last year. That would suggest that the low July land sales numbers were more of an outlier than the start of any sort of trend.

Thoughts on the Market
We have discussed the decreases in home sales volumes over the last few posts, but I haven’t talked a whole lot about the increase in condo sales activity. Of the 7 months of sales this year, one month had the same sales volume as the same month from 2015, and one month was down from the same month last year. Five of the months have experienced greater sales volume than the same month of 2015. The last four months have all seen an increase over the same month of 2015. Over that period from April-July, sales volumes are up 14% compared to the same period of 2015. That raised the question of why we may be seeing an increase in activity. I dug into the sales data a few different ways to try to see if I could come to any conclusions as to what is driving the increase in sales activity.

The first thing I did was break down the sales volume over the last four months by price point.

I can’t say that this breakdown provided me with a clear picture of the driving force behind price increases. We can see an increase in sales below $300,000 and an increase in the $1,500,000 and higher range. The middle price ranges tend to be a mixed bag. The biggest increase in activity of any price range occurred between $500,000-$749,999. I can’t say off the top of my head why that would have occurred. The middle of the market, so to speak, also included the only two price points where sales were down compared to last year. The remaining price ranges saw relatively limited increases over 2016.

Not feeling like I had a clear answer, I took a look at two other data points. The first data point is is whether or not the property allows short term rentals. This data is somewhat flawed as it is not a mandatory field in our multiple listing service. In other words, not every condo sale that occurred over the last month reported whether or not the condo allowed vacation rentals.

It is pretty clear that there was an increase in sales for properties that are reported to be vacation rentals. I calculated a 26% increase over the period between April 1, 2015 and July 31, 2015. It was interesting to note that the increase in vacation rental condo sales was particularly evident in the $500,000-$749,999 price range. That appears to point to a significant driver for sales activity in that price range.

The one other data point I wanted to look at was new developer sales. New developments can be market drivers that boost the overall sales activity. In some cases, the boost can mask other market trends. An example of this is when Honua Kai started to close a lot of condos while we were still in the thick of the downturn. Overall condo demand was low, but sales numbers were relatively high as buyers were closing on contracts that were originally written pre-construction during the peak of the real estate boom. From what I could glean, we haven’t seen a similar phenomenon over the last four months. There was an uptick in new development sales. I counted 29 new development sales from April 1, 2016-July 31, 2016. That is up from 23 sales during that same period last year. However, the vast majority of these contracts were written recently.

While I can’t say I have definitive answers on what is driving the recent uptick in condo sales, the data above points to three price ranges where the improvement was most prevalent and a type of condo that saw more activity. Based on anecdotal evidence and the quantitative evidence, I am going to postulate a few reasons for the increases in each of these segments. The increase in sales at the low end is a reflection of the continued strength of the buy over renting argument on Maui. Maui rental rates have soared. Low borrowing costs make owning a number of Maui condo less expensive than renting. As long as rents remain high and rates remain low and inventory is sufficient, that part of the market should continue to be busy. I can’t say definitively why the high end market is outperforming last year in terms of sales. When I look at the luxury home market, sales totals between 2015 and 2016 have been almost identical. It just seems as if high end buyers are gravitating more towards condos this year. I believe the increase in vacation rental condo sales, and in the $500,000-$749,999 range in particular, is a reflection of pretty strong consumer confidence among some mainland buyers. West Coast real estate markets have been strong and the stock market has performed well. This means more cash for discretionary purchases like a vacation rental condo on Maui.

A Few Closing Thoughts for Maui Buyers and Sellers
I think there are some things to be learned for the overall Maui market from my review of the condo numbers. The biggest is that there is variability in the strength of the market by price point. I think you can also add geographic variability as another factor. Not all communities are seeing equal levels of buyer demand. While these stats tend to paint the market in broad brushes, how buyers and sellers approach the Maui market is going to be a reflection of their specific segment of the market. Contact The Maui Real Estate Team if you are interested in buying or selling a property on Maui. We would welcome the chance to hear about your needs and to discuss market conditions that are most relevant to you.

It’s almost the end of the month so I wanted to make sure I squeezed in a June stats post.This is something of an abbreviated post with more numbers and less analysis. I will give a few more thoughts on the state of the market in the July stats. Without further ado, here are the numbers.

June Real Estate Sales Volumes

There were 98 homes sold in June with a median home price of $657,000. Last June there were 101 homes sold with a median price of $650,000. That is a 3% drop in sales volume and a 1% increase in median price when comparing this June to last June.

There were 110 condos sold in June with a median price of $384,000. In June of 2015, there were 99 condos sold with a median price of $355,000. That is an 11% increase in sales volume and an 8% increase in median price.

There were 13 lots sold in June with a whopping median price of $1,200,000. Last June, there were 14 sales with a median price of $420,000. That is a 7% decrease in volume and a 285% increase in median price.

Notable numbers from the June Real Estate Sales Activity
While compiling the stats above, I came across some other notable numbers worth sharing from the June sales activity.

• The highest home sale price in June was $7,000,000. This Makena property includes almost 10 acres of land and two pole homes. It is close to Big Beach.
• That was one of 5 home sales over $2,000,000. The other sales were for properties in Kihei, Kapalua, Launiupoko (Lahaina), and Hana.
• The highest price condo to close in June is located in Wailea. The 3 bedroom, 3.5 bath condo Ho’olei in Wailea sold for $2,850,000.
• That was one of 8 condo sales in June sold for $1,500,000 or more. There was one more Ho’olei sale and two sales in Wailea Elua. There were individual sales of $1,500,000 or higher at Ka’anapali Ali’i, Maui Ka’anapali Villas, Honua Kai and Makena Surf.
• The highest priced land transaction closed for $2,950,000. This oceanfront lot in the Kuau area of Paia consists of 18,861 square feet of land.
• This was one of 7 land sales over $1,000,000 in June. That is a pretty extraordinary number. Five of these sales were in Launiupoko. They were part of the new Makila Ranch subdivision of Launiupoko. The one other sale was in Haiku.
• There were 12 bank owned sales that closed in June. That was down just a little from the 13 REO sales in June of 2015.
• There were 2 short sales that closed in June. That is down significantly from the 8 short sale transactions that closed in June of 2015.

June Pending Sales
All of the numbers discussed prior to this point were from properties that sold in June. We also wanted to take a look at the properties that went under contract with buyers in June. This will give us a little better sense of more recent market activity and demand.

June marked the second month in a row where pending home sales were down. I don’t believe this is a reflection of decreased demand as it is a reflection of limited inventory for first time home buyers. I expect this trend to continue with lower sales volumes and higher median prices due the decreased number of entry level homes available for sale. The condo market continues to follow recent trends of outperforming 2015. The land market pending sales are skewed a little by new development sales that showed 0 days on market. These were contracts that were likely written before this month.

Wrapping it all up
I don’t have a whole lot of in depth analysis to offer this month. We have seen fairly steady market demand overall with pockets of greater activity based on geography and price point around the island. As mentioned directly above, I believe the lack of lower priced home inventory will continue to impact the total numbers of homes sold. Contact The Maui Real Estate Team if you are thinking of sticking your toes into the waters of the Maui Real Estate market. We would welcome the chance to sit down and learn about your real estate needs and give our thoughts on market conditions specific to the properties that might fit your needs.

It is New Year’s Eve, and I am just getting around to the November 2015 statistics. Needless to say, the holiday season is a whirlwind and blogging can find itself on the back burner. Since this is a last minute attempt to squeeze in the November numbers before the end of the year, this is going to be something of an abbreviated post with limited analysis. Don’t worry, I plan to delve deeper into stats next week with year end numbers. In the interim, here are the November Maui Real Estate Stats.

November Sales Volumes and Median Prices

There 72 homes sold in November with a median price of $550,000. By comparison, there were 76 homes sold in November of 2014 with a median price of $587,500. That is a 5% drop in sales volume when comparing this November to last November.

There were 74 condos sold in November of 2015 with a median price of $475,000. Last November, there 68 condos sold with a median sales price of $366,250. That represents almost a 9% increase in sales volume when comparing the two Novembers.

There were a total of 9 land parcels sold in November with a median price of $520,000. In November of 2014, there were 10 lots sold in Maui County with a median sales price of $411,500. That is a 10% drop in volume comparing this November to last November.

Notable Numbers from the November Maui Sales Activity
While compiling sales volumes and sales medians, I came across some notable numbers that I thought were worth sharing.

• The highest priced home to sell in November was located in the Kaanapali Coffee Farms. The 3,716 square foot home has big ocean views, an infinity pool and over 4.6 acres of land. It closed for $3,475,000.
• This was one of four home sales in Maui County for more than $2,000,000 in November. The other sales were in Lanai, Paia and Wailea respectively.
• The Wailea sale set a new record for the Wailea Kai neighborhood. It closed for $2,200,000.
• The highest priced condo to close in November was a 3 bedroom, 3 bathroom unit at Honua Kai with 2,170 square feet of living space. It closed for $3,197,450.
• The Honua Kai sale was one of six condos to close for over $1,500,000 in November. The other big condo sales included two more at Honua Kai, a Hoolei, a Ritz Carlton Residences and a Makena Surf.
• The highest priced land transaction last month was for a .43 acre parcel in the Maluaka Estates Neighborhood of the Makena Golf and Beach Club. The lot closed for $9,000,000. Six of the ten lots in Maluaka Estates have now sold.
• There were 16 bank owned sales and 1 short sale that closed in November. In November of 2014, there were 12 bank owned sales and 4 short sales.

November Maui Pending Real Estate Sales Activity
As I have said before in our stats posts, sales volume can be a lagging indicator. With contracts that typically take 30-60 days to close, the November sales are more of a reflection of buyer interest in September and October. That is why we also like to look at the total number of properties that go pending in a particular month. The chart below compares the number of homes, condos and parcels of land that went pending this November as compared to last November.

Home pending sales were up significantly over November of 2014. Condos and land saw a modest dip in pending sales activity. In the one bit of analysis in this post, I would surmise that the strength of pending home sales may pertain to the anticipation of increases in interest rates. While the December increase in rates proved to be modest, buyers wanted to lock down as low as rate a possible.

Wrapping it up
With the new year upon us, expect quite a few stats posts in the coming weeks. We will be taking a look at the December stats, the overall 2015 stats and year end reviews and outlooks for a handful of communities around the island. We wish everyone a Happy New Year. Contact The Maui Real Estate Team if buying or selling real estate on Maui is part of your 2016 plans. We would welcome the chance to sit down with you and discuss your needs.