I wanted to take a quick look at the Wailea condo market now that we are a month into our “peak buyer season”. I spent some time looking at the current inventory and I was left with four observations and one question about the current market dynamics.

Wailea and Makena Condo Inventory

At the time of this post, there are 27 active condo listings in Wailea. While that’s a far cry from the half dozen active listings we saw briefly in early 2022, it’s still well below normal. There are four condo complexes in Wailea with no active listings. There are six condo developments with just 1 active listing at this time. None of the Makena condo developments have any active or pending listings.

The Highest Price Points have the Most Condos for Sale

The two condo developments with the most listings are Wailea Point and Wailea Beach Villas with 6 and 4 listings respectively. In addition to the condos at those two respective developments, there is also a top row Ho’olei and a rare Andaz listing. If you are shopping at higher price points, you have a lot more options to choose from.

Prices Remain High

The second half of 2022 saw prices decrease in a number of markets on the mainland. The situation on Maui is more nuanced. Small segments of the single family home market saw values decrease. Other segments held value or even increased in value. Wailea is one of those areas where values held or increased in the second half of 2022.

This is reflected by the current Wailea inventory. Seventeen of the twenty-seven active listings are seeking new record high sales prices for their development or at least their particular floor plan. That isn’t too much of a surprise considering the fact the values are at all time highs. That said, not all of the condos seeking record high prices have the location, view or the finishing to merit those lofty numbers.

Buyer Activity Is Low

Thus far, busy season is off to a slow start in Wailea. There are 5 condo resales under contract currently. Only 3 of the 5 went under contract since Christmas. This level of activity is well below the same period of time during the past two boom years. It is quite a bit less than recent pre-Covid years. In fact, this is the lowest number of Wailea condos to go under contract to start busy season since the winter of 2013/14.

Wailea is not the only spot on the island seeing a quieter busy season. While pending sales are increasing, they are still well below normal for this time of year. Looking at Kapalua, there are three pending sales with only one new pending since the start of busy season. Ka’anapali is the busiest of the resorts with only five pending.

While Wailea’s slow start is part of a broader trend, it may also be a reflection of some of the ambitious asking prices. Which brings us to my last question…

Who Blinks First?

With low transaction volumes, it seems like something is going to have to give for us to see an increase in sales activity in Wailea. Will sellers reduce their prices? Will buyers bite the bullet? Or do we see a little bit of both?

On the sell side, the dynamics are interesting. We are seeing some price reductions, but in many instances the new asking prices are still above record highs. That tells us that the sellers truly missed the mark on their initial pricing. The sellers are also getting some mixed signals. The low transaction volume is a suggests prices should be reduced. On the other hand, inventory remains low, and there are still the occasional sales with eye popping prices. The question is whether sellers are trying to find the market or that elusive solitary buyer willing to pay a premium.

For buyers, the record high prices may be increasingly hard to swallow. That is especially the case for second home buyers coming from markets where decreases in value are common place. On the other hand, if you are seeking out a condo in one of the developments with little or no inventory you may be inclined to jump when something comes to market that checks all of the boxes. Further decreases in mortgage rates may also bring some buyers off the fence, but the impact of lower rates is not going to be as significant in the Wailea market. Keep in mind, 62% of all transactions were cash in Wailea and Makena last year.

Contact The Maui Real Estate Team

We will continue to monitor the Wailea Condo market as we progress further into buyer season. Stay tuned for more updates. You can see the active inventory of Wailea Condos for sale on MauiRealEstate.com. Contact The Maui Real Estate Team with questions or for assistance buying or selling Wailea Condos. We look forward to being of service.

Welcome to Maui Real Estate Musings Volume XIV! The fourteenth edition of the musings looks back at some of the notable numbers from the June 2022 Maui Real Estate Statistics. There is also an in-depth look at the land market during the first half of 2022. Without further ado…

Notable Numbers from the June Maui Real Estate Statistics

The numbers below are from just the island of Maui. They do not include sales from the islands of Lanai or Molokai. For that reason, they are a little different than the Realtor’s Association of Maui Statistics. It is also worth keeping in mind that these numbers look backwards in terms of market demand. The sales are based primarily on contracts written earlier in the spring from March through May.

June Home Sales

• Maui Realtors reported 83 homes sold in June of 2022. That is down 25% from the 110 homes sold in June of 2021.
• Sales numbers continue to decrease due to both decreased demand and limited inventory throughout the spring.
• While demand may be down, the limited inventory still created a competitive environment for prospective buyers. Of all the homes sold in June on Maui, 33.78% sold for over asking price and 54.22% sold for asking price or above.
• The lower price points of the market remained the most competitive. Of the homes sold for under $1,000,000, 61% sold for over asking price and 84% sold for asking price or above.
• Competition eased a little from May when 35.48% of all homes sold for over asking price and 61.29% sold for asking price or above. It is also the first month this year where the percentages are lower than the year before. The June 2021 numbers were 36.36% above asking and 54.55% asking price or above. For a little context, June 2019 “pre-covid” numbers were 3.45% sold over asking price and 27.59% sold for asking price or above.
• The Median Sales price for the homes that closed in June came in at $1,275,000. That is 14% higher than June 2021’s median of $1,117,500.
• The Average sales price of homes sold in June came in at $1,837,250. That compares to last June’s average of $1,734,816.
• Average sales price continues to be boosted by strong luxury market activity. That includes one sale over $10,000,000, two additional sales over $5,000,000 and a total of 16 homes sold over $2,000,000.
• The highest priced transaction in June closed for $16,013,250. The five bedroom/ 3 bath oceanfront home in Makena is one of the very limited number of homes on island with zoning that allows vacation rentals.

June Condo Sales

• Maui Realtors reported 147 condos sold in June. That is 38% lower than the 239 sold in June of 2021.
• As with the home market, decreased volume reflects both a decrease in demand and constrained inventory.
• Demand for the limited inventory remained sufficient throughout the spring to keep the market competitive among buyers. Of the June condo sales, 33.33% sold for above asking price and 60.54% sold for asking price or above.
• That is pretty comparable to May when 31.94% sold for over asking price an 66.67% sold for asking or above. Again for some pre-Covid context, in June 2019 only 12.2% of sales closed for over asking and 37.4% sold for asking price or above.
• The median price of the condos sold in June is $840,000. That is 29% higher than last June’s median of $650,000.
• The average price of the condos sold in June is $1,240,840. That 26.14% higher than the average of $983,638 in June of 2021.
• Luxury condo market activity is helping to push up that average sales price. Twenty-nine condos closed for more than $1,500,000 including 3 condos over $5,000,000 and 1 over $10,000,000.
• The highest priced condo to sell in June is located in the Makena Golf and Beach Club. The Molokini Residence floor plan with 5 bedrooms, 5.5 bathrooms and 4,430 square feet of living space closed for $11,256,000.

Looking at the Maui Land Market

The Maui land market is something of a forgotten stepchild of Market Musings. We typically focus on the far busier home and condo markets. In an attempt to make up for past oversight, I thought I would take a deeper dive into the land market for the year to date.

Year to Date Sales Volumes

	Sales	New Pending Sales	New Inventory	Cancelled Listings
January	19	25	28	4
February	27	16	15	7
March	20	21	23	5
April	20	17	34	10
May	16	9	20	11
June	7	8	10	8

Looking at the numbers in the chart above, the data that stands out the most is the decrease in sales in June. The decline in new pending sales in May and June suggest that we are likely to see lower sales number in the next month or two as well.

The chart above gives some context on how monthly land transactions in 2022 compare to the previous four years. If you are looking at the chart on a smaller device and you can’t read the key, the darker blue line is 2022, the orange 2021, the grey 2020, the yellow 2019 and the light blue 2018. Needless to say, 2022 sales volume is well below the first half of 2021. While 2022 sales started stronger than 2018-2020, sales appear to be trending below the pre-covid numbers in 2019 and 2018.

The other thing that the chart speaks to is the variability in the market. Year to year patterns in market activity are a little harder to distinguish. You can see some signs of seasonality with the first halves of the year typically busier than the second. Unsurprisingly, 2020 is a clear outlier with a much stronger second half of the year. Sales during the first half of 2019 are quiet for a “normal” year. Month to month fluctuations make the chart a little noisier.

A lot of the noise stems from the limited volume of land sales on a monthly basis. A few more or a few less buyers in any one month can make a big difference in the chart. While the island hasn’t had a lot of new land developments over the last five years, sales in these developments can provide a pretty health boost to the monthly numbers. Sales in places like Mahana Estates in Kapalua and Haiku Town Acres helped boost sales volume in late 2020 and spring of 2018 respectively. Otherwise, the market is largely driven by resales, small subdivisions and condominiumized lots.

Year to Date Pricing

The median price of the lots sold in the first half of the year came in at $845,000. That is 20.71% higher than the median during the first half of 2021. The average sales price for lots during the first half of the year came in at $1,355,768. That is a whopping 55.60% higher than January to June 2021 average of $871,266.

The high average price this year stems both from an increase in the proportion of sales over $1,000,000 and a decrease in the proportion of sales below $500,000. A whopping 39.82% of all sales in the first half of 2022 closed for $1,000,000 or higher. That compares to 29.21% of the sales during the first half of 2021. The percentage of lots sold for $500,000 or under came in at 20.35% in the first half of 2022. That compares to 25.84% selling for $500,000 or less in the first half of 2021.

Inventory

While inventory grew this spring, the rate of growth slowed in June, and new inventory is limited to date in July. The price distribution of the inventory is notable as well. Of the 79 active lots on the market as of July 14th, only 15.9% are listed for under $500,000 while 63.29% of the inventory is priced for $1,000,000 or higher. A whopping 21.52% of the inventory is priced for $3,000,000 or higher.

Maui Land Market Outlook

As mentioned above, the decrease in pending sales suggest slowing sales volume will continue in the near future. That shouldn’t be too big of a surprise with the overall volume of sales slowing on island. The question is whether the decrease is a blip or a trend?

I can’t speak with any sense of certainty, but it is worth noting that the land market faces headwinds going forward. Lower priced inventory is scarce. Higher interest rates and uncertainty over the direction of future interest rates is a barrier for those who want to build and refinance into a conventional home loan going forward. My understanding is that building material costs remain pretty high although there may be some relief in the future as commodity prices come down. That said, construction labor is likely to remain high on island. When talking to a contractor earlier this year, he indicated he had to keep raising the hourly wage of his employees. Otherwise, employees struggled to afford rentals under his older wage structures. It will likely require a decrease in local rents or a big construction slow down for labor costs to adjust.

The other question is to whether we will continue to see higher demand in the $1,000,000 plus inventory. Only 13-16% of all sales closed for over $1,000,000 during 2018-2019. Will we continue to see elevated demand for higher priced lots as the market normalizes?

The one thing likely to bolster the land market moving forward is continued scarcity. There aren’t a lot of land projects on the horizon. Resales, condominiumized lots and the occasional small subdivision are the likely source for inventory in the future. This is an island so areas with sufficient water, infrastructure and zoning for future development remain finite.

A Little Maui Beauty to Brighten Your Day

Located on the far south end of Maui, La Perouse Bay is the site of the last lava flow on Maui, dating back to 1790. As part of the 'Ahihi Kina'u Natural Area Reserve, the north area, Moanakala, remains an excellent choice for snorkeling when conditions are favorable. pic.twitter.com/cidBdjOF8I

— Maui Hawaii (@Maui) July 13, 2022

Contact The Maui Real Estate Team

Questions about this post? Interested in buying or selling property on Maui? Contact The Maui Real Estate Team. One of our agents would welcome the chance to sit down with you to answer questions and to learn more about your Maui Real Estate needs.

Once again it’s time for another edition of Maui Market Musings. Your almost weekly source for the latest and greatest Maui Real Estate Statistics and market observations. The musings are also rumored to cure insomnia for those that have no interest in real estate. Although, we need to go through clinical trials before we can make that claim officially. This edition of the musings looks at notable numbers from the May stats and a few statistics that point towards current market conditions.

Notable Numbers from the May Maui Statistics

I looked through the latest statistics from the Realtor’s Association of Maui (RAM) and did a little number crunching of my own. The numbers below represent some of the more interesting items from the May Sales activity on Maui. They are just for the island of Maui. RAM’s stats include sales on Lanai and Molokai.

May Home Sales

• Maui Realtors reported 93 home sales on Maui. That is down 20% from last year’s 116 sales.
• While increased mortgage rates in March and April likely impacted sales, low inventory remains a factor too. The end of the month inventory of active home listings between February and April averaged about 15% below the same period of 2021.
• While we may be seeing lower sales numbers, competition for the available inventory remained robust. Of the homes that sold, 35.48% sold for over asking price and 61.29% sold for asking price or above.
• That is quite a bit stronger than last May when 25.86% sold for above asking price and 50.86% sold for asking price or higher. It is also higher than April when 32.35% sold for over asking price and 55.88% sold for asking price or above.
• The median price of homes sold in May is $1,225,000. That is 20% higher than the May 2021 median home sale price.
• The increase in median is a reflection of both price appreciation and a lack of inventory at lower price points. There were only 8 homes sold on island for less than $800,000 last month. The May prior, 37 homes sold for less than $800,000.
• The average price of homes sold in May 2022 came out to $2,309,049. That is a 34% increase over last May’s median of $1,724,917.
• Strong activity in the luxury home market drove the high average price. Two homes sold for over $20,000,000. Six total homes sold for more than $5,000,000. Twenty-seven homes sold for over $2,000,000.
• The high sale for the month closed for $26,490,700. For that sum, the new owners acquired a home with 10,500 sf of living space, 8 beds, 8 baths, 3 kitchens, along with a separate pool house with room for guests, a six car garage and a caretaker’s quarters. The property is situated on an acre across the street from the ocean in Makena. This was the highest priced home to sell for the year to date.

May Condo Sales

• Maui Realtors reported 144 condo sales in May. That is 39% lower than the 237 sold in May of 2021.
• As with homes, increased mortgage rates may be tempering demand, but inventory is also impacting sales volume. The average number of active condo listings at the end of the month from February through April averaged about 56% less than the same period of 2021.
• While demand may be lower, the limited supply continues to make for a competitive market. Of the condos sold, 31.94% sold for over asking price in May. An impressive 66.67% sold for asking or above.
• That is a lot higher than the numbers from May 2021 when 15.28% sold for over asking price and 42.68% sold for asking price or above. The number of properties selling for above asking price in May 22 is down a little from April 22. That said, the percentage selling for asking price or above is higher.
• The median price of condos sold in April is $747,000. That is 21.46% higher than last April’s median.
• The average sales price for the condos sold in April came out to $1,136,318. This is 13.68% higher than the average price in April 2021.
• Luxury condo transactions remain strong with one sale over $10,000,000, 3 over $5,000,000 and 22 sold for $1,500,000 or higher.
• The highest price condo sale for the month closed for $11,900,000. That buyer now owns a 3 bedroom, 4 bathroom condo with 2,814 square feet of living space at the Andaz Residences Wailea.

Current Market Indicators

If you are long term reader of our stats post, you will know the familiar refrain that sales are a lagging indicator. We wanted to look at just a few stats that might give a better sense of current market conditions.

As noted repeatedly in the May sales stats, inventory, or lack thereof, remains a big driver in our market. On the last day of May, there were 213 active home listings in Maui County. That is a 7.5% increase from 198 listings at the end of April. On the last day of May, there were 175 active condo listings. That is just 1.7% above the 172 on the last day of April.

Nationally, the inventory of homes for sale rose 25% from April to May. Maui is clearly lagging behind the mainland when it comes to changes in inventory. That said, as noted in Market Musings X, any increase in inventory on Maui at this time of the year goes against pre-Covid trends. Inventory dropped on Maui between the last day of April and the last day of May in 2017, 2018 and 2019.

We also continue to track the number of properties going under contract within the first ten days of coming to market. Of the 55 homes and condos listed between May 18th-25th, 17 or 34.54% of the new listings went under contract within the first ten days of going on the market. That is a slight decline from the 35.55% between May 7th and 14th. It is down substantially from the 56% we reported in mid-February. For comparison to Pre-Covid days, 23.8% of listings that went to market between May 18th-May 25th, 2019 went under contract in the first ten days.

The one last metric we are trying to track is price reductions. The number of active home listings with price reductions is sitting at 29.5%. This is down from May 24th when 33% of active home listings reduced their price at least once. Of the active condo listings, 20.9% reduced their price one or more times. That is up from the 18.2% of active condo listings that reduced their price on May 24th.

A Couple of Thoughts on The Numbers

One number that stood out is the decrease in the number of price reductions among the active home listings . Prior to calculating the numbers, I expected to see an increase in price reductions for active home listings. Anecdotally, it seems like there are more price decreases. So why the lower number? Without doing a deep dig into the recent pending sales, I suspect that price reductions are proving to be effective. People overshooting the market initially are able to find the market via price adjustments.

Overall, the numbers above point to a market that while cooler than this winter, still remains resilient. The shifts in the market are gradual and not drastic. Inventory numbers well below normal combine with existing levels of demand to create conditions that are still more competitive than a “normal” Maui market.

While the numbers show some of the variability in the market between homes and condos, they don’t show the variability by geography and price point. On May 31st, I went through the end of the month inventory for homes and condos and broke it down by geography and price point. The purpose of the exercise wasn’t so much for this post but to create a baseline for future analysis trying to track potential shifts in inventory and demand at a district and price point level. That said, there is pretty clearly some variability evident. This post is getting a little long already so I will save my findings for the next edition of the Musings. The one immediate takeaway is that sellers will likely want to talk to their Realtor about conditions specific to their segment of the market when determining pricing and negotiation strategies.

The Obligatory Maui Photo Tweet to Brighten This Blog Post

A few of my favorite photos from Maui, Hawaii. Hope you have a wonderful day! pic.twitter.com/nYgiBBJMue

— Scott Smorra (@ScottSmorra) June 1, 2022

Contact The Maui Real Estate Team

Contact the Maui Real Estate Team if you have any questions about this post or if you need assistance buying or selling Maui Real Estate. We look forward to hearing from you and discussing your real estate needs.

It’s May on Maui and time for another Market Musings. This week is a little bit more of a meat and potatoes affair as we look at notable numbers from the April Statistics and try to get a better pulse on current market conditions. National Real Estate numbers are showing signs of slightly slower activity due to current interest rates. It feels like we may be feeling something similar on Maui. Do the numbers support my anecdotal feelings? Keep reading to find out what I discovered.

Notable Numbers From the April Statistics

The April statistics are out and they speak to the strong buyer demand in January-March. I compiled these numbers using sales just from the island of Maui. I filtered out Molokai and Lanai.

Home Sales

• Maui Realtors reported 101 home sales. That is down 22% from last year’s 129 sales.
• Tighter inventory is a significant factor in the decreased sales numbers. At the end of April, the Realtors Association of Maui reported 176 homes on the market. That is 24% lower than last year at this time and 15% lower than the end of March 2022.
• Competition remained high for the limited inventory. Of the homes sold, 34% sold for over asking price and 56% sold for asking price or higher.
• That’s stronger than last April’s numbers of 26% over asking and 53% for asking price and above, but lower than March 2022’s 35% sold for over asking and 59% sold for asking or higher.
• The median price of the homes sold was $1,250,000. That represents a significant 28% increase over last April’s median of $975,000.
• The increase in median can be attributed in part to price increases and also limited inventory at lower price points. Only 8 homes sold for less than $800,000 in the month of April.
• The average price of the homes sold was $2,189,247. That is a more modest increase of 8% over last April’s average of $2,015,101.
• The high average prices are due to robust luxury market activity. Three homes sold for $10,000,000 or higher. A total of 9 homes sold for more than $5,000,000 and 25 for more than $2,000,000.
• The highest priced home closed for $18,750,000. That was for a 4,800 square foot luxury home with a 600 square foot cottage on just over a half acre right on Keawakapu Beach in South Kihei.

Condo Sales

• Maui Realtors Reported 168 condos sold in April. That is down 36% from April of 2021.
• Inventory played a big part in the decreased activity compared to the year prior. There were only 158 condos on the market at the end of April. That is 50% of the number for sale at the end of April 2021 and 6% below the end of March 2022.
• As with homes, competition for condos on the market remained high. Of the condos sold, 41% sold for over asking and 62% sold for asking price or above.
• That is a substantial increase over last April’s numbers of 9% sold over asking and 36% sold for asking price or above, but a little lower than March when 43% sold for over asking and 70% sold for asking price or above.
• The median price of condos sold in April is $857,500. That is 23% higher than the median in April 2021.
• Average sales price for a Maui condo in April comes in at $1,223,669. That is 28% higher than the median in April 2021.
• Like the luxury home market, the luxury condo market remained busy. That helped boost the average condo sales price. There was a single condo sale over $10,000,000. Four condos sold for over $5,000,000 and 34 condos sold for $1,500,000 or higher.
• The highest priced condo closed for $12,000,000. That was for a ground floor 3 bedroom in the D building at Wailea Beach Villas.

What’s Happening Now?

Sales Statistics look backwards. As mentioned above, the strong April numbers reflect buyer demand from February, March and to a limited extent Early April. Since that time, Interest rates broke the 5% barrier and we transitioned out of peak tourist season.

The one relevant statistic to the present is inventory. Supply was lower at the end of April than it was at the end of March. The first five days of the month did not bring a torrent of new inventory. That’s one area where we differ from the overall national market. The National inventory of homes for sale slowly increased during the spring with healthier gains over the last week. Plain and simple, the supply side of the Maui market remains severely constrained.

What about demand? There are suggestions in the the April stats that demand has been cooling slightly. Over asking sales prices and full price sales both decreased from March. Is there anything we can tease out from the current inventory?

In Market Musings Volume 8, we looked at the percentage of new listings going under contract in 10 days or less between April 6th and 13th. It came in at 46%. Between April 19th and April 26th, 35 out of 82 listings are under contract in 10 days or less. That is roughly 43%. It is worth noting 2 additional properties went under contract only to cancel escrow.

While I don’t have a basis for past comparison, I also looked at price reductions in the market. Out of the 160 active home listings on May 5th, 59 or 37% reduced their price . Of the 130 active condo listings, 19 or right around 15% reduced their price. This can be a baseline of comparison for future Musings.

Variable Conditions

I saw the quote below and had to work into a Musings. It was such a good analogy. I could practically feel the blister forming on the roof of my mouth from a Hot Pocket I consumed in 1991.

The housing market is like a hot pocket taken out of the microwave a tad too early. Some portions are blazing hot while others are only warm. What I mean is not all neighborhoods and price ranges have the same temperature.

— Ryan Lundquist (@SacAppraiser) April 25, 2022

It also resonated with me as I watched the hot sheet over the last ten days. It sure seemed like not all parts of the Maui Real Estate Market are at the same level of frothiness. That’s clearly the case when comparing homes to condos. Condos have less inventory and far fewer price reductions overall.

Within the home market, I looked at the price reductions and sorted them by community. Kula and Haiku have the highest percentage of active inventory that’s dropped their price one or more times. They both clock in with 42% of the active inventory having dropped their price.

While this validates some of my expectations. I will say this is something of a flawed metric. While Haiku has had quite a few price reductions, there are only 13 active listings. Well priced properties can still sell pretty quickly. On the other end of the spectrum only 8% of the active inventory in Ka’anapali made a price reduction to date. That would seem to suggest strong demand. That said, the average days on market for the active Ka’anapali listings exceeds 100 days.

Overall, the market remains pretty darn strong and inventory remains really low, but there is a hint of nuance to things. Some parts of the market still feel hot like earlier this winter, others are just warm. The slight cooling likely can be attributed to the significant rise in mortgages rates. Rates continue to rise slowly and other economic headwinds like the recent stock market plunge could threaten demand. Will decreased demand change the trajectory of the market or will the low inventory continue to be the determining factor in market conditions? I will keep you posted in future editions.

A Side of Maui Beauty With the Stats

Another beautiful #Maui morning! 🌴 #mauinokaoi pic.twitter.com/DtUEPr4oom

— Star Noodle (@StarNoodle) May 2, 2022

Contact The Maui Real Estate Team

Dynamic market conditions call for quality, experienced representation. Contact The Maui Real Estate Team if you are considering buying or selling Maui Real Estate. We look forward to learning about your real estate needs.

This week’s edition of the musings dives into recent numbers from the Maui Luxury Home and Luxury Condo market. There is also an update on the end of the State of Hawaii’s Safe Travels Program and Mask Mandates, a look at the national real estate market and a little bit of Maui beauty to brighten your day.

Maui Luxury Market Update

As we approach the end of the first quarter of the year, it is worth taking a moment to check into see how the luxury property market is fairing on Maui. For the sake of this article, luxury is defined as homes priced for $2,000,000 and above and condos priced $1,500,000 and above. The numbers below are based on sales numbers between January 1st and March 21st. Here are the numbers followed by a few thoughts on the luxury home and condo market.

Maui Luxury Home Market 2022 Sales Numbers

• Thus far, 47 homes sold over $2,000,000 as of March 21st. That is down 13% from the 54 sold during the same period last year.
• Six homes sold for more than $5,000,000 this year. That is down from 13 during the same period of 2021.
• When you look at sales over $10,000,000, activity is up just a little bit. Realtors reported 4 sales over $10,000,000 compared to 3 last year.
• A number of the stronger luxury home markets in early 2021 saw activity decrease in early 2022 as shown by the chart below. West Maui saw some of the more pronounced decreases with bigger drops in Lahaina and Ka’anapali.

• A number of communities that did not see sales in 2021 experienced activity in 2022. Notably, there were 5 sales in Haiku and 3 in Makawao this year.
• Days on Market decreased substantially on homes sold over $2,000,000. This year, the average sale is closing in 127 days. That is 29% less time on market than last year’s 179 days.
• Competition in this market place is up significantly. Of the homes that sold for $2,000,000 or above, 57.44% closed for asking price or higher. That is well above the 16.67% that sold for asking price or above during the same period of 2021.
• It is notable that the three highest priced home sales all closed for their full asking price.

Maui Luxury Condo Market 2022 Sales Numbers

• Maui Realtors reported 71 condos sold for $1,500,000 or higher as of March 21st. That is up almost 34% from the 53 sold during the same period of 2021.
• Of the 71 sales, 7 sold for $5,000,000 or more as of Match 21st. That is up slightly from the 6 that sold during the same period last year.
• The Ka’anapali Condo market stands out for the significant increase in sales activity compared to other Maui markets. The Napili and Kahana market also experienced a notable increase.

• Other markets saw less drastic annual changes with Lahaina and Kapalua repeating last year’s numbers and Wailea and Makena down slightly.
• A big reason for Ka’anapali’s increased activity is due to activity at Honua Kai. Honua Kai saw 12 sales after just 4 last year.
• Days on market decreased quite a bit for high end condos. The average of 67 days on market is 54% lower than the average of 145 days on market in early 2021. It is worth noting, that long term new developer sales are excluded from calculations for both years. These are contracts signed pre-construction, but do not close until 2-3 years later when construction is completed.
• Competition for luxury condos also increased. Of the 71 condos sold, 63.4% sold for asking price or above. That compares to 39.6% last year.

Some Takeaway from the Luxury Home and Condo Numbers

Volume may be down for homes, but that is more a function of reduced supply vs. decreased demand. The lower days on market and number of homes selling for at or above listing price support the notion of sustained demand and a more competitive market.

The impact of decreased inventory is also evident at the community level where places like Wailea and Makena are seeing lower sales volume due to decreased inventory. The Ka’anapali market and to an extent the Lahaina market are seeing lower sales for a few reasons. 1. Inventory is down at the lower price points of the luxury home market. 2. Some of the homes going under contract are “spec” houses with completion dates later in the year. Finally, some of the sellers are pushing the envelope on pricing. I mentioned the Lanikeha subdivision in Ka’anapali specifically in volume I of the market musings. The bulk of the inventory in that neighborhood is priced well above previous neighborhood high sales. To be fair, a couple of the higher priced homes have gone under contract since my post. That said, there are still quite a few homes available.

The increase in activity in new markets is also due to a combination of factors. We are seeing some homes selling above $2,000,000 due in part to appreciation. With price increases year over year ranging between 10 and 20 percent, some of last year’s below $2,000,000 sales are going for more money. Another factor is just plain old variability. Places like Haiku and Makawao both saw an increase in $2,000,000 sales over the last 4 years. It’s just that early 2021 was quieter in those communities. We are also seeing some luxury buyers expand their search outside the resort markets due to the lack of inventory.

The increase in activity in the condo market is largely due to better inventory selection compared to the luxury single family home market. That said, not all markets have an abundance of inventory. The Wailea and Makena area have lower inventory and it is reflected in the lower sales volume. We can see the impact of decreased inventory in some area of the luxury condo market in both the decreased days on market and the higher percentage of condos selling at or above asking price.

End of Safe Travels and the Mask Mandate

March 25th was the last day of the Hawaii Safe Travels program. Travelers coming to Hawaii will no longer need proof of vaccination or a negative covid test prior to arrival. It is also the last day of the indoor mask mandate in Hawaii. There are still requirements to wear masks on planes, buses, public schools and the airport.

Interest Rate Increases Don’t Seem to be Slowing the Market Around the Country

While keeping tabs on the local market, it’s also worth keeping an eye on national trends. This is particularly the case in the current market as interest rates hit heights we haven’t seen over the last few years. The folks over at Altos Research have good access to pending sales data around the country. That gives you a little better sense of current market conditions than what you would get by just looking at sales data. Here is their video overview of the most recent data and it’s worth a watch.

 Watch this video on YouTube.

If you don’t have the time to watch, here are a few quick notes. Inventory ticked up again although pending sales and pricing both appear to be strong. They are watching closely to see if the recent rates are impacting buyers. While they aren’t seeing any data to really suggest a change in market conditions, they spoke to a few things they are looking for that might indicate a potential slow down from the current frenzy. They mentioned listening for anecdotal signs of less active bidding wars. Altos suggested keeping an eye out for an increase on cancelled transactions and an increase in cancelled new developer contracts. Again, they haven’t seen that in the national data yet.

For what it’s worth, they aren’t expecting any seismic shifts in the market other than moderation of the current activity. The caveat being that a more significant shift could occur if interest rates were to settle over 5%.

Interestingly, there were a few more cancelled contracts on the Maui MLS last week. I am hesitant to read too much into the cancellations at this point. While it might be related to the rise in rates, it could also be a coincidence. It is something to watch a little more closely going forward.

A Little Bit of Maui Beauty

It was another beautiful morning on Maui today. I thought it was worth sharing this photo from Baldwin Beach with the West Maui Mountains in all of their glory.

A sunny way to start the week. 🏖️ pic.twitter.com/HJFdlTgngM

— HAWAI'I Magazine (@HAWAIIMagazine) March 28, 2022

Contact The Maui Real Estate Team

Have questions on anything in this post? Need assistance buying or selling property on island? Just want to talk about a specific part of the market? Contact The Maui Real Estate Team. We look forward to being of assistance.

Our local MLS groups the adjoining communities of Wailea and Makena together. While the two areas border each other and both offer high end properties, there are enough differences that they are somewhat distinct markets. While Wailea may be a more recognized name nationally and internationally, Makena tends to see the highest home values on the island. The recent addition of Discovery Land Company’s Makena Golf and Beach Club further cemented this beautiful stretch of coastline as Maui’s most exclusive community. Last week, we posted about the year to date market conditions in Wailea. This post looks at the busy year to date of real estate activity in Makena.

Notable Numbers from This Year’s Makena Home Sales

• Maui Realtors reported 10 home sales in Makena for the year to date as of October 9th.
• This is quite a contrast from the complete lack of sales activity during the same period of 2020.
• It is worth noting that this is the busiest January – October period for Makena Home Sales of any year on MLS records.
• The median price of the ten homes sold is $10,000,000. The average price is $14,151,650.
• A home in the Keauhou subdivision set the high water mark for sales with a $25,000,000 price tag. The newly constructed 6,561 square foot home sits on 2.496 acres of land across the street from the ocean.
• This was one of two reported sales to eclipse the $20,000,000 mark in Makena this year.
• It is worth noting that the coconut wireless is reporting a third unreported sale that came in around $70,000,000. If rumors are correct, the buyer is a rather prominent tech executive.
• A home that sold across the street from Big Beach was the least expensive sale in Makena this year. The 4,080 square foot home on .71 acres closed for $6,337,500.
• Five of eleven home sales in Makena this year are beachfront properties.
• According to MLS records, the Realtors involved reported all sales as cash purchases. It is worth noting that some of these “cash” sales may involve financing in the background with no financing contingencies in the contract.

Thoughts on recent Makena Home Sales and the Makena Home Market Outlook

Like many higher priced home markets around the country, the Makena area experienced robust activity during Covid-19. It just took a little longer for the ball to get rolling. After just one sale in all of 2020, the market really took off after the first of the year. Not only are the 10 sales stronger than any other 9 plus month period, this year’s activity to date is stronger than any full calendar year for Makena on MLS records.

Looking ahead to the rest of the year, inventory figures to be a factor for the Makena home market. At this point in time, there are just two active listings with one home under contract. Barring an influx of new inventory or off market sales, 2021 won’t have too much of an opportunity to pad its record. Assuming there is no drastic change in the overall economic picture, this should be something of a seller’s market as we enter the new year.

Notable Numbers from This Year’s Makena Condo Sales

• Maui Realtors reported 15 condo sales in Makena as of October 9th. That calculates to a 50% increase in activity over the 10 sales that closed during the same period of 2020.
• The median price of the fifteen condo sales is $3,050,000. The average price is $3,973,000. This is actually down from last year’s median and average sales price of $5,069,500 and $4,734,275 respectively.
• Makena Surf was the busiest development for sales activity with eight closes. Na Hale O Makena came next with 5 closed transactions. There were 2 closes at the Kula Villas at Makena Golf and Beach Resort.
• The highest priced transaction closed for $12,500,000. That was for one of the units at the Kula Villas. It is four bedroom, four and a half bathroom condo with 3,625 square feet of living space.
• The lowest priced sale closed for $1,500,000. The 3 bedroom, 2.5 bath unit at Na Hale O Makena has a garden view.
• Nine of fifteen Makena condo sales this year were were cash transactions.

Thoughts on the Makena Condo Market

While the fifteen condo sales in Makena may not seem like a lot, the year to date sales are stronger than any similar time period on MLS records. There is a slight asterisk to those numbers in that for much of the MLS history, there was only one or two condo developments in the area. The addition of the Kula Villas means more potential inventory to sell. Nonetheless, this is still a pretty strong year for buyer activity.

Looking forward to the rest of the year, the Makena market isn’t exactly teeming with inventory with four active listings and no pending sales. This will be the biggest constraint on new sales activity for the rest of the year. The Makena Golf and Beach Resort does tend to have a fair number of properties that never make it on to the MLS. We could see a few sales pop out of that development before the end of the year.

Contact The Maui Real Estate Team

Please contact the Maui Real Estate Team if you are thinking of buying or selling property in Makena. Buyers can search the current inventory of Makena Homes for Sale and Makena Condos for Sale on MauiRealEstate.com. Buyers let us know if there is a specific area of Makena that might be of interest. With the limited inventory available, we would be happy to keep our ears open for unlisted properties. For sellers, limited supply and strong demand make the present a great time to be on the market. Feel free to reach out to us for a free consultation and price opinion on your property.