The initial economic impacts of Covid-19 included lost jobs and disruption of income for large numbers of people around the globe. With the local Maui economy largely dependent upon tourism, our small island was among the nation’s hardest hit. The original CARES act that passed in the spring of 2020 offered relief to homeowners who struggled to pay their mortgages due to job loss or depressed wages. Those struggling homeowners were able to work with their lender to pause or reduce their mortgage payments for a period time. What started as a 6 month program was extended to 18 months. A total of over 7.25 million borrowers used forbearance as a means of relief for at least some period of time. That number of homeowners in forbearance is down to approximately 2,000,000 by around the end of June.

As of September, some of the borrowers who were among the first to enter the forbearance program will come to the end of their 18 month forbearance period. At this time, it does not appear as if there will be additional extensions of the program. What does the end of forbearance mean for those borrowers and the market as a whole?

The good news is that Fannie, Freddie and FHA are saying the right things about borrowers coming to the end of their forbearance. Recent guidelines released by those entities are focused on loan modifications for borrowers struggling to make their payments due to Covid related financial struggles. If you are a homeowner faced with the end of forbearance in the immediate future, remain proactive in your discussions with your mortgage holder. Ask about loan modification programs.

For those that may not be able to get a loan modification or the terms of a modification are too onerous, selling may be the only option. During the mortgage meltdown of the 2000s, borrowers struggled with the dual challenge of economic hardship and plunging prices. The result was a wave of foreclosures. Current market conditions couldn’t be more different as prices on island and for much of the continent climbed steadily over the last twelve months. The good news is that the recent appreciation should allow the majority of borrowers who need to sell to pay off the balance of their loan. That should significantly curtail the number of foreclosures. Feel free to Contact The Maui Real Estate Team if you are trying to get a sense of the current market value of your property. We would be more than willing to help out with a free broker’s price opinion.

Based on the above, it seems unlikely that the end of forbearance will significantly change the Maui market. The impact of the end of forbearance in the Canadian market seems to reinforce that notion. About 17% of the mortgages in Canada went into forbearance. As of February, 98% of the forbearance programs expired. As of the end of June, the average home price in Canada was up 25.9% year over year.

While the end of forbearance might lead to a small bump in inventory, a drastic influx of distressed property seems less likely. Real Estate economists are predicting a gradual increase in inventories as the year progresses. Post forbearance properties should be one component of that increase.

Maui’s Real Estate market started 2021 on a similar foot to how it ended 2020. Strong buyer demand continues to persist. I haven’t quite gotten back to weekly posting, but this week’s post should at least have us caught up. I will take a brief look at the numbers over the seven day period between December 30th and January 5th followed by a more in depth look at the very busy week between January 6th and January 12th. Keep reading for more numbers.

Buyer Activity Between December 30th and January 5th

Christmas time is traditionally thought of as the start of peak buyer season on Maui. This correlates with the start of peak visitor season. That said, the weeks right after Christmas and around the new year tend to be something of a mixed bag for Maui Real Estate. Some years, buyer activity is particularly robust. Other years it is more quiet. Despite comparatively low visitor numbers, the seven days between December 30th, 2020 and January 5th, 2021 showed solid activity.

• Maui Realtors reported 62 pending sales between the 30th and the 5th. That is 11% higher than the week prior. It is 63% more activity than the same seven day period last year.
• The 62 pending sales include 21 homes, 35 condos and 6 lots.
• The high end market remains busy with 9 properties priced $2,000,000 or above going under contract.
• Sales were solid with 65 closed transactions. This reflects the solid buyer demand from October through early December.
• New inventory was limited between the 30th and the 5th with 40 new listings. That includes only 12 homes and 1 lot.

While this week represented represented a solid start for our “typical” buyer season, the numbers for the 6th-12th of January are pretty eye popping.

New Pending Sales January 6th-12th

Maui County Realtors reported 92 new pending sales over the seven day period between January 6th and 12th. That is a 48% increase in buyer activity over both the seven days prior and the same seven day period of 2020.

Notable Numbers From the Pending Sales Between January 6th-12th

• The 92 pending sales included 35 homes, 47 condos and 10 lots.
• This is a highest number of weekly pending sales than any seven day period of 2020.
• The 47 new pending condo sales represents the highest weekly total since I began tracking this data during Covid.
• Of the 47 pending condo sales, 26 are vacation rental friendly condos. Another 6 new pending condo sales are located in resort developments that prohibit vacation rentals.
• The high end market continues to be busy with 10 new pending sales over $2,000,000. That includes 7 homes and 3 condos.
• The 10 new pending land sales ties the previous Covid era weekly high.

January 6-12 Closed Transactions

Maui Realtors reported 57 closed transactions over the seven day period between January 6th and 12th. That is 10% lower than the seven days prior. That is 68% higher than the same seven day period of 2020.

New Inventory Between January 6th and January 12th

Maui Realtors listed 74 properties over the seven day period between January 6th and 12th. That is an 85% increase in new listings over the week prior. It is 4% lower than the same seven day period of 2020.

Of the 74 new listings, 22 are single family homes. That is well below the 35 new home pending sales this week. That means a further reduction in inventory. Thus far, the new year is not bringing a respite from our home inventory shortage.

Forty new condo listings came to market between the 6th and the 12th. Normally, that would represent a pretty strong week for new inventory. That said, it is still below the 48 new pending condo sales. The condo inventory is not as limited as the single family home inventory. It is worth noting that there is also a fair amount of variability in the supply depending on geography and price point.

The land inventory is the only market segment with a net increase this week thanks to 12 new listings. That compares to 10 pendings. This modest increase is hardly anything to move the market. As a whole the inventory of lots for sale remains pretty stable.

Contact The Maui Real Estate Team

Needless to say, the numbers point to continued robust market activity. Buyer demand remains strong and supply limited. Contact The Maui Real Estate Team if you are thinking of buying or selling property. We look forward to working with you and learning more about your real estate needs.

The title of this post is something of a misnomer. I last posted an update almost a month ago. That is a reflection of current market conditions. More time showing property and less time time to blog. Being that it’s been a while, this will be a bulked up post. I wanted to give a quick update on market conditions over the period when I didn’t post. I will also have specific details on market activity for the seven day period between December 2nd and 8th.

Catching Up on The Market

With your resident blogger slacking over the last four weeks, here is a higher level overview on the market dynamics through the end of November. These are some of the key points on recent market activity.

• Pending sales activity dipped slightly for the three weeks prior to December 2nd-8th. After averaging 60 plus weekly new pending sales for 7 straight weeks, weekly new pendings over this period dipped into the high 50s. While not as robust as October, this is still pretty strong demand. A lack of inventory at lower price points isn’t helping sales numbers.
• Sales are pretty strong. In August and September, weekly sales numbers were fluctuating quite a bit. Recent numbers are more consistent. This is a reflection of the higher number of properties that went under contract earlier in the fall..
• Home inventory remains tight. There was slight growth in the number of new home listings during the last three weeks of November. That said, buyers shopping at or below the median sales price didn’t see a lot of new listings. It is also worth noting that the luxury home inventory is tightening with really limited offerings available in places like Kapalua.
• From June-September, we saw a lot of new condo inventory come to market. The increase in inventory slowed in October and it slowed even further in the last three weeks of November. There was a net decrease in inventory over that time.
• The luxury market is particularly strong. Employees are taking advantage of their employers work from anywhere edicts during Covid-19. We are seeing an influx of high income earners relocating to Maui. We are seeing market dynamics we have never seen before in the high end property market. Short days on market and multiple offer situations were unheard of until the last few months. We also are seeing more activity than usual in the $10,000,000 and above market.

Now that you are caught up a little on recent market dynamics. Let’s get to the numbers from our most recent seven day tracking period.

This Week’s New Pending Sales

Maui Realtors reported 60 new pending sales over the seven day period between December 2nd and 8th. This is a modest 3% increase over the seven days prior. It is 13% more activity than the same seven day period of 2019.

Notable Numbers from This Week’s Pending Sales

• The 60 new pending sales include 34 homes, 22 condos and 4 lots.
• This is the first time in six weeks that new home pending sales outpaced new condo pending sales. It is the most new weekly home pending sales since late September.
• This is the first time in four weeks that weekly pendings went back above the 60 mark.
• The 22 condo pending sales included 12 vacation rental condos.
• There are 6 new pending sales priced over $2,000,000 for the period between the 2nd and the 8th. They include 4 homes, 1 condo and 1 lot.

This Week’s Closed Transactions

Maui Realtors reported 54 sales during the 7 day period between December 2nd, and December 8th. That is 5% fewer sales than the seven days prior. It is 32% higher than the same seven day period of 2019. Of note, there were 7 transactions that closed for over $2,000,000. Six of the seven properties sold are located in West Maui.

Weekly New Inventory

Maui Realtors listed 66 properties between December 2nd and December 8th. That is 14% higher than the seven days prior. It is 8% higher than the same seven day period of 2019.

Of the 66 new listings, 28 are homes. That is the highest number of homes listed in a seven day period since late September. The median price of the new home listings comes in at $905,000. While that is a lower median than quite a few recent weeks, it is still a pretty high number for those looking for properties at lower price points. Due to the high number of pending sales between the 2nd and the 8th, the inventory of active home listings decreased.

Between December 2nd and December 8th, 32 new condo listings came on the market. With only 22 condos going under contract over the same period, the inventory of active condo listings increased.

Maui Realtors listed 6 lots between December 2nd and the 8th. That represents a slight increase of inventory with only 4 lots going pending over the same period.

Contact The Maui Real Estate Team

These posts speak in pretty broad brush strokes about the island’s real estate market. In reality, there is still some variability in market conditions by town, neighborhood and price point . Contact The Maui Real Estate Team to discuss market conditions in an area of the island specific to your interests. We welcome the chance to talk, zoom or e-mail and learn more about your real estate needs.

October ends with a bang. The seven day period between the 21st and the 27th was the strongest week for buyer demand during Covid-19. Closed transactions ticked up quite a bit after another one of those anomalously slow weeks. Inventory remains tight with even the condo market showing a rare decrease in net inventory. Take a break from your election week angst and find out this week’s numbers below.

Maui Realtors reported 68 new pending sales for the seven day period between October 21st and 27th. That is 11% more than the seven days prior. It is 25% more than the same seven day period of 2019.

Notable Numbers From This Week’s Pending Sales

• The 68 new pending sales included 24 homes, 36 condos and 8 lots.
• Of the 36 new pending condo sales, 19 are vacation rental friendly. Three of the other new pending sales are higher priced resort area condos that prohibit vacation rentals.
• Demand in the high end property market remains strong with another 6 new pending sales priced over $2,000,000. That includes 5 homes and 1 condo.

This Week’s Closed Transactions

Maui Realtors Reported 55 sales over the seven day period between October 21st and October 27th. That is a 49% increase over the slow seven days prior. It is 11% slower than the same seven day period last year. It is worth noting that last year’s numbers were boosted by 5 new developer closes from longer duration contracts.

This Week’s New Inventory

Maui Realtors brought only 53 properties to market over the seven days between October 21st and October 27th. That is a 39% drop from the seven days prior. It is 35% lower than the same seven day period of 2019. After a busy week of new listings that coincided with the state’s reopening of tourism, new inventory plummeted over this seven day period.

There are 28 new condo listings that came to market between the 21st and the 27th. With 36 new pending condo sales over the same period, we are seeing a net decrease in active condo inventory. While there is still quite a bit of inventory in the condo market, the wave of new condo inventory may be subsiding. The question is whether the election or the approach of our traditional tourism season cause upticks in inventory.

The home market continues to see a dearth of new inventory. Maui Realtors only listed 19 homes between the 21st and the 27th. That marks another net decrease in inventory with 24 listings going under contract. Again, the new inventory skews towards higher price points with a median price of $1,750,000 and an average price of $3,017,157. Once again, buyers looking below $800,000 aren’t seeing much in the way of new inventory. The lack of inventory is putting upward pressure on pricing.

Only 6 new land listings came on the market this week. With 8 pending sales, that is a net decrease in inventory. The inventory in the land market remains relatively flat overall.

Contact The Maui Real Estate Team

Market conditions on Maui remain strong with heightened buyer activity and growing scarcity particularly in the home market. We are working hard to represent our buyers and sellers in these extraordinary times. Contact The Maui Real Estate Team if you are thinking about buying or selling property on Maui. We look forward to talking to you and learning more about your needs.

As we move into the middle of October, a lot of new pending sales shows buyer demand for the Maui Real Estate market remains strong. Closed transaction took another anomalous dip. While new inventory ticked up again led by new condo listings. Keep reading for all of the numbers for October 14th-20th.

This Week’s Pending Sales

Maui Realtors reported 61 new pending sales over the six day period between October 14th and October 20th. That is approximately a 2% increase over the seven days prior. It is 15% more activity than the same period of 2019.

Notable Numbers From This Week’s Pending Sales

• This is the fourth straight week of 60 or more new pending sales
• The 61 new pending sales included 28 homes, 27 condos and 6 lots.
• Of the 27 condo pendings, 17 are located in developments that allow vacation rentals.
• The high end market continues to see heightened levels of activity. Six homes and one condo priced over $2,000,000 went under contract this week.

This Week’s Closed Transactions

Maui Realtors reported 37 properties sold over the seven day period between October 14th and October 20th. This is 36% below the prior seven days. It is 26% below the same seven days of 2019. The low sales numbers were driven largely by a lack of single family home sales. Only 11 homes closed.

I have to say the sales numbers make me scratch my head a little. Dating back to mid-July, the lowest weekly pending sales number is 51. Since the start of September, there have been four weeks with 42 sales or less. We are seeing a few properties fall out of escrow, but not enough to quite explain the difference between pending and sales.

This Week’s New Inventory

Maui Realtors listed 87 properties between October 14th and 20th. This is a 45% increase over last week. It is 14% higher than the same seven days of 2019.

Last week, I asked the question as to whether we might see more condo owners decide to bring their property to market with visitors back on island. The answer to that question is a resounding yes. The 53 condos that came to market is the highest weekly total since the last week of August. The next question is whether we continue to see higher levels of condo inventory going to market or if the surge is limited to immediately around the reopening.

The 53 new condo listings is well over the 27 that went under contract over the same period. After a couple of weeks of slower inventory growth, the condo inventory jumped again. This is going to be really interesting to follow the inventory over the next few weeks. As asked above, will we see a lot of new listings? On the other end of the spectrum, might we see an increase in demand for vacation rental condos with visitors/potential buyers back on island.

The 26 new home listings is less than the 28 new pending home sales. This means another modest decrease in inventory. As with recent weeks, the decrease in inventory is particularly pronounced at lower price points with few home listings coming to market under $800,000. The median price of the new home listings this week came in at $1,422,500. The average price of the new home listings is $2,373,125. Limited inventory and strong buyer demand is pushing up home values in many of the markets around the island.

The land inventory saw another modest increase with 8 new listings compared to 6 new pending sales. Overall, inventory in the land market seems to be pretty steady. If anything, pricing seems to be increasing modestly in a number of markets around the island. This is particularly the case Upcountry and in Haiku. Those markets are seeing more activity.

Contact The Maui Real Estate Team

Market activity remains very strong on island. Buyer demand is fueled by two separate dynamics. Local buyers with steady employment are taking advantage of very low interest rates. There is also a healthy pool of off island buyers who are relocating to the island. The work from anywhere ethos is causing a fair number of people to make the move to Maui. Contact The Maui Real Estate Team if you are thinking of buying or selling property on island. We are working hard to bring our clients success in these dynamic market conditions. We look forward to talking and learning more about your real estate needs.

It was another strong week for buyer activity on Maui. Closed transactions picked up after a couple of slower weeks. While there was no reprieve from the lack of inventory with a slow week for new listings. Read below for more details on Maui Real Estate market activity between September 30th and October 6th.

Maui Realtors reported 65 new pending transactions during the seven day period between September 30th and October 6th. This was the second busiest week for new pending sales since the start of Covid-19, trailing only the week prior. This 65 new pending sales are 3% lower than the previous 7 days. It is 18% higher than the same seven day period of 2019.

Notable Numbers from this Week’s Pending Sales

• The 65 new pending sales included 32 homes, 27 condos and 6 lots.
• Of the 27 condos, 14 are located in developments that allow vacation rentals.
• There were 3 homes priced over $2,000,000 that went pending. This is a decrease below the very strong buyer demand in the high end market in recent weeks. That said, there were a few properties that went under contract this week priced just a little below $2,000,000.

This Week’s Closed Transactions

After a few weeks of lower sales, the number of closed transactions picked up sharply. Maui Realtors reported 67 closed transactions between September 30th and October 6th. This is the second highest number of weekly sales on the chart above. The 67 sales is 59% more than the seven days prior. It is 13% below the same seven day period of 2019.

This Week’s New Inventory

New inventory dipped again. Maui Realtors brought 54 properties to market between September 30th and October 6th. That is 32% fewer listings than the week prior. That is 42% below the same week of 2019.

Of the 54 new listings, 28 are condos. That is just one more than the 27 condos that went under contract this week. After weekly gains in inventory throughout Covid-19, this is the first week since May where the number of weekly new condo listings was below 30. It will be interesting to see if new condo inventory numbers start to slow or if this is just an anomaly.

The increase in inventory in the condo market started to impact pricing at selected developments this summer. In general, prices leveled off and there were a few condo complexes with significant inventory that saw some modest drops in value. A month or so ago, I was wondering if the decrease in prices might become more widespread. Thus far, it appears as if a lot of sellers are holding out rather than adjusting their prices.

This will be something to watch going forward particularly with the pre-flight testing program going into effect on the 15th. Will the reopening of travel spur a substantive increase in buyer demand? Will sellers feeling pain from a lack of rental income see enough bookings to provide some relief?

Only 17 homes came on the market between September 30th and October 6th. Like last week, the new inventory skewed towards higher price points. The median price of this week’s new home listings is $1,147,000. The average price is $3,787,000 thanks in part to three new listings priced in excess of $10,000,000. This week’s low new inventory means another week of shrinking inventory. The lack of inventory is putting upward pressure on home values.

Nine new land listings came to market over this last seven day tracking period. With 6 pending sales this week, this marks another modest increase in land inventory. That said, the relatively small increase in inventory over the last couple of months does not appear to be impacting pricing. If anything, land values appear to continue to hold or increase depending on location.

Contact The Maui Real Estate Team

Early fall is typically a quieter time of year for Maui Real Estate. It is a shoulder season for visitors. Fewer visitors mean fewer potential buyers. In true 2020 fashion, that’s not the case this year. Our first substantive increase in visitors isn’t set to happen until the 15th, but we just had the two busiest weeks for buyer activity since the start of Covid-19. We are seeing bidding wars at higher price points than usual. Properties that long languished on the market are going under contract.

Contact The Maui Real Estate Team if you are thinking of buying or selling property on Maui. We continue to work diligently to represent our clients interests in these extraordinary times. We look forward to hearing from you and learning more about your interests.