Maui Real Estate Blog
Maui Market Musings XXI
It’s that time again. This is the twenty-first edition of the Maui Market Musings. Our
weekly, biweekly, monthly update on the Maui Real Estate market. The latest edition looks at active and pending inventory, price reductions and demand for new listings. There are plenty of words down below, so I will spare you from any more up here…
End of November Maui Home Inventory
|<$750,000||7||14||9||15||5 (-4)||14 (-1)|
|$750,000-$999,999||21||46||29||29||31 (+2)||25 (-4)|
|$1,500,000-$1,999,999||44||17||41||13||28 (-13)||17 (+4)|
|$2,000,000-$2,999,999||33||12||35||10||34 (-1)||11 (+1)|
|$5,000,000-$9,999,999||27||6||26||5||23 (-3)||9 (+4)|
|Haiku||24||7||28||9||29 (+1)||10 (+1)|
|Kapalua||4||0||6||0||5 (+1)||3 (+3)|
|Kihei||35||16||40||11||31 (-9)||15 (+4)|
|Kula||22||11||20||11||22 (+2)||12 (+1)|
|Makawao||13||11||13||9||11 (-2)||7 (-2)|
|Napili/Kahana/Hono…||9||7||11||6||9 (-2)||3 (-3)|
|Sprecks/Paia||10||4||8||2||7 (-1)||3 (+1)|
|Wailuku||36||26||40||21||32 (-8)||19 (-2)|
Notable Numbers from the End of November Maui Home Inventory
The information above is provided with the usual framework. The home inventory data by price point includes all of the island of Maui, but excludes the islands of Molokai and Lanai. The district information is limited to the districts and communities with the most activity.
- After an increase in inventory in October, Maui home inventories decreased again in November. Active listings dropped 6.1%.
- Looking at the the active inventory by price point shows a mix of trajectories. While most price ranges decreased, the continued increase between $750,000 and $999,999 is notable. This is a part of the market with more financed buyers. Those buyers are feeling the affordability impact of higher rates. The $10,000,000 plus price range is not known for financed buyers. That said, it also saw an increase.
- Pending sales actually increased between the end of October and the end of November. While the increase was a modest 3.7%, the increase in activity comes as somewhat of a surprise considering both rates and the more significant decrease between late September and late October.
- Broken down by price point, the picture is more mixed. Again, fewer properties went under contract in that $750,000-$999,999 price range. Pending sales increased in the $1,500,000 to $3,000,000 range. The biggest percentage increase in pending sales was in the $5,000,000 to $9,999,999 price range.
- At a community level, inventory trends were all over the place. Kihei, Lahaina and Wailuku all experienced notable decreases in inventory. Most other markets experienced modest changes with increases or decreases of a couple of homes. The Wailea active inventory increased the most month to month.
- There was also a lot of variability in the end of month change in pending sales by community. Pending sales increased in five communities, remained unchanged in five districts, and decreased in four. Kapalua and Kihei saw the biggest increase in pendings. Kahului and the Napili, Kahana, Honokowai area decreased the most.
End of November Maui Condo Inventory
|$500,000-$749,999||28||40||32||35||43 (+11)||33 (-2)|
|$750,000-$999,999||33||33||27||27||28 (+1)||29 (+2)|
|$1,000,000-$1,499,999||19||36||21||30||31 (+10)||24 (-6)|
|$1,500,000-$1,999,000||18||34||14||33||21 (+7)||28 (-5)|
|$2,000,000-$2,999,999||14||43||15||40||18 (+3)||39 (-1)|
|$5,000,000-$9,999,999||7||0||11||1||12 (+1)||2 (+1)|
|Total||145||222||154||200||187 (+33)||190 (-10)|
|Ka’anapali||17||14||18||9||25 (+7)||4 (-5)|
|Kapalua||10||4||12||4||14 (+2)||2 (-2)|
|Kihei||48||61||43||60||53 (+10)||51 (-9)|
|Lahania||5||7||8||4||14 (+6)||8 (+4)|
|Ma’alaea||4||4||3||6||4 (+1)||8 (+2)|
|Napili/Kahana/Hono…||29||30||33||17||39 (+6)||19 (+2)|
|Wailuku||8||12||11||10||8 (-3)||8 (-2)|
Notable Numbers from the End of November Maui Condo Inventory
Again, the tables above come with the usual framework for our end of month inventory. The table by price point includes all condos on Maui, but it does not include condos on the islands of Molokai or Lanai. The table with districts is limited to the communities with the most activity.
Pending sales at La’i Loa at Wailea Hills skew the data in Wailea and the $1,500,000-$5,000,000 price ranges. There are 75 pending sales in that development based on contracts penned in 2020 and the first quarter of 2021. Pending sales in La’i Loa won’t start to close until sometime in 2023. Paradise Ridge Estates in Kihei also skews the data albeit to a lesser extent. There are 18 pending sales with that development based on contracts penned between 2018 and the first quarter of 2022. Overall, 49.73% of the pending condo inventory is in La’i Loa or Paradise Ridge Estates.
- End of month condo inventory increased for the second straight month. Active inventory grew by 21.42%.
- Seven out of ten price ranges increased inventory between the end of October and the end of November. Two price ranges remained constant and only condos priced below $250,000 decreased in active inventory.
- The largest increases in active inventory occurred between $500,000-$749,999 and $1,000,000 to $1,999,999.
- Pending sales dipped 5% between the end of October and the end of November. Pendings in four price points decreased, increased in three and remained unchanged in three.
- The biggest decrease in pending sales occurred between $1,000,000 and $1,999,999.
- Active inventory increased in all but two communities. Only Wailuku saw a decrease while Kahului inventory remained unchanged. Kihei increased the most by the number of units and Lahaina increased the most by percentage.
- Pending sales increased the most in Lahaina. Kihei pending sales decreased the most.
Pending Sales vs. New Listings
With the shift in active and pending sales, it is worth taking a look at what’s driving inventory levels. How did November stack up against other years for new listings and new pending sales?
Looking at new inventory in November, you can see that we are well below last year. For homes, there were just over 30% fewer listings than last November. More notably, last month’s new inventory was anywhere between 39% and 46% less than what came to market in November of 2017-2019. The decrease in new condo inventory entering the market in November is even more pronounced. There were roughly 42% less condo listings last month compared to November 2021. New inventory came in anywhere between 53% and 56% lower than Novembers 2017 and 2019. The one outlier being November of 2018. Even that year had 40% more new listings than this year.
While inventory remains low, the number of properties going under contract decreased significantly from last November and the Pre-Covid Novembers Prior. New pending home sales this November are almost 34% lower than last November. They are down between 21 and 30% compared to the Novembers between 2017 and 2019. Again, the difference in the condo market is a little more dramatic. New Pending sales from November 22 are almost 62% less than November of 21. This November’s new pending sales are between 37% and 53% lower than November 2017-2019.
Looking at the numbers above, inventory clearly remains low. Pending sales are also down quite a bit. While some of the decrease in pending sales may be attributed to the limited inventory, decreased demand is the bigger driver for the decrease in activity. The weight of decreased affordability impacts a number of buyers.
How Quickly Are Things Going Under Contract?
Another metric we use to track the market is the speed at which properties are going under contract. Specifically, what percentage of new listings are going under contract in 10 days or less. We started tracking that number in mid February during the peak of last winter’s frenzy. At the time, 56% of all new listings went under contract in ten days or less. Prior to this post, the last time I checked this metric was for the period between October 11th and October 18th. At that time, 25.58% of properties listed during that span went under contract in ten days or less. Between November 21st and November 28th, 15.9% of all properties went into escrow within that ten day span.
Of the single family homes that came to market between November 21st and November 28th, 13.64% went under contract in ten days or less. For context, 36% of homes listed between November 21st and November 28th, 2021 went under contract in ten days or less. Of the homes listed between November 21 and November 28th, 2018, only 4.17% of the properties went under contract in ten days or less.
Of the condos listed between November 21st and November 28th, 18.18% sold in 10 days or less. Last year, 43.24% of condos listed in that period sold for 10 days or less. Pre-covid, 29.26% of condos listed between November 21st and November 28th sold in ten days or less.
Overall, this is the most tepid response new listings received since we started tracking this data point. While the slower market activity could be a function of the Thanksgiving Holiday, the 2021 and 2019 numbers both remained busy despite Thanksgiving.
A lot of sellers don’t seem to be fretting the smaller numbers of buyers on the market. That is evident in the recent numbers on price reductions in the active inventory. On November 30th, 37.02% of all active home listings reduced their price one or more times. That is down from 39.92% on October 31st and 42.41% on September 29th. While the percentage of homes with price reductions started to tick down nationally in the last couple of weeks of November, the percentage of price reductions started declining in early September on Maui.
On November 30th, 23.53% of all active condo listings reduced their price at least once since being listed. That number was 29.41% on October 31st. It was 25% on September 29th. It’s interesting to see that price reductions are down considering the decreased condo sales activity over the last month. Low inventory and the start of peak winter home buying season at the end of the month is emboldening sellers.
Quick Thoughts on the State of the market.
Weird. My one word summary for the current Maui Real Estate market. Some parts of the market continue to push to all time record highs, other parts are stalled, while other segments of the market are seeing modest price declines. Supply (or lack thereof) and affordability (particularly when you take into account borrowing costs) push and pull the market in different trajectories.
We’ve already looked at the fluctuations in active listings by price point and community in this post. It might be worth zooming out and looking at those same numbers island wide since late Spring.
While active listings fluctuated over the last five months, the end of November supply for homes and condos is lower than it was at the end of June. Demand, reflected in pending listings, fell steadily downward over that time. While the data in this post shows that demand is far less than a normal market, we still have constrained supply. Demand fell enough to cool market conditions, but supply remains limited enough to prevent across the board decreases in value. Variability in market conditions on island ultimately comes down to the balance between supply and demand at the community level and at different price points. The price points that are decreasing in value appear to be those that have more financed buyers. The places that continue to see record highs have extremely limited inventory and a high percentage of cash buyers.
A Little Maui Beauty To Brighten Your Day
A beautiful sunrise taken from the beach in Wailea.
Contact The Maui Real Estate Team
Navigating the weird market conditions demands quality representation. Market strategies for buyers and sellers vary by price and location. Contact The Maui Real Estate Team to discuss market conditions specific to your budget and areas of interest. Our savvy and experienced agents look forward to being of assistance.