Maui Real Estate Blog
Maui Luxury Condo Market Update
Earlier this month, we took a look at Maui’s Luxury Home Market. Today, I wanted to turn my sights towards the high end condominium market. This post will include totals on all of the condos sold for the year to date (as of September 20), notable numbers from this year’s sales, and market conditions specific to the three resort areas of Wailea/Makena, Ka’anapali and Kapalua.
When we have discussed luxury condos on our blog, we have used the $1,500,000 and above price point as the threshold for pricing. When we first started to look at the luxury condo market, that was something of a starting point for some of the really high end condos. To be clear, there are some very nice condos below this price point. That said, we want to be consistent with our methodology. So all properties discussed in this particular blog sold for $1,500,000 or more.
Maui Luxury Condo Sales Volume and Median Price
There were 69 condos sold thus far this year as of September 23, 2015. The median price for those sales was $2,250,000. Between January 1, 2014 and September 23, 2014, there were 63 sales at a median price of $2,575,000. That is roughly a 10% increase in volume and a 13% decrease in median price.
Notable Luxury Condo Sales Numbers for the Year to Date.
Here are some of the most noteworthy numbers from the luxury condo sales this year.
- The highest priced condo to sell thus far this year closed for $8,500,000. This is a three bedroom, three and a half bath, beachfront unit with 2,919 square feet of living space at Wailea Beach Villas.
- Including the sale at Wailea Beach Villas, there were a total of 12 condos sold over $4,000,000.
- Honua Kai saw the most sales activity of any condo complex on the island. There were a total of 20 sales at Honua Kai over $1,500,000 including 11 new developer sales.
- The Wailea and Makena Market saw the most sales activity over $1,500,000 with a total of 28 sales. Kaanapali saw the second most activity and Kapalua was third.
- In addition to the sales activity in the major resort markets, there was one sale in Lahaina, one in Kihei, one in Spreckelsville and two on Lanai.
- There were no bank owned condos or short sale transactions among this year’s sales
Wailea and Makena Condos
Wailea and Makena have had a good year for sales to date. The 28 sales reported exceeded last year’s total of 20. That is a 40% increase in activity. Much of that increase in activity occurred in Makena. While there was only one sale in Makena during the same period last year, this year there were 6 sales. Five of the six Makena sales were at Makena Surf. The remaining sale was at Na Hale O Makena. This was a particularly busy year for Makena Surf with the five sales reported thus far more than any year since 2004.
The Wailea sales over $1,500,000 were spread out among a variety of complexes. There were 7 sales at Hoolei, 1 at Andaz, 2 at Kai Malu, 1 at Papali, 1 at Wailea Ekahi, 3 at Wailea Elua, 3 at Wailea Beach Villas and 3 at Wailea Point. Hoolei continues to lead the way in high end sales in Wailea. The size of the condos combined with their price point and the potential to access amenities at the Grand Wailea continues to be an attractive option to buyers. While Wailea Beach Villas did not have the same sales volume, it was noteworthy for the fact that it had the top two highest priced condo sales on the island thus far this year.
It will be interesting to see what happens in the Wailea and Makena market for the rest of the year and into 2016. There is still a good selection of variety to choose from on the MLS. There is plenty of active inventory on the MLS with 40 condos on the market. There are unlisted properties available at Andaz and the new Keala O Wailea development. There is also a chance that we might see pre-construction sales at Makali’i at Wailea before the end of the year. You can see all of the current Wailea and Makena Condos listed on the MLS on MauiRealEstate.com. Contact The Maui Real Estate Team if you have questions on any of the unlisted properties.
The Ka’anapali Condo market has also had a fairly strong year with 26 sales reported to date. That is down 7% from the 28 units sold during the same period last year. The Ka’anapali market has been buoyed over the last several years by activity at the Honua Kai Resort. Honua Kai has been a big draw as the first fee simple whole ownership new development along this stretch of coast for over 20 years. Of the 26 condos sold in Ka’anapali for $1,500,000 or more, 20 were at Honua Kai. Ka’anapali Ali’i has had 5 sales thus far this year. There was also one sale at the Masters.
The Ka’anapali luxury condo market is starting to see shrinking inventory with only 20 active listings over $1,500,000. A big part of that stems from Honua Kai. The developer is getting close to selling out their remaining units. There are only 3 new developer listings left on the MLS. I believe there are still a handful of additional new developer units in addition to those posted on the MLS. There are only three units active at Ka’anapali Ali’i with the remaining listings located at Ka’anapali Shores and the Whaler. It will be interesting to see if the dwindling inventory at Honua Kai will have an impact on places like the Whaler and Ka’anapali Shores. Buyers have shown a preference for the newer Honua Kai Condos leading to depressed sales at the other places. Will some of the older condos nearby start to see an uptick in activity? You can see the full inventory of Kaanapali Condos listed on the MLS via MauiRealEstate.com.
The Kapalua Market has seen pretty similar activity levels to what we saw last year. There have been 10 sales reported in the year to date this year. There were 9 sales reported over the same period last year. The focal point for luxury condo sales in Kapalua has been the Montage Residences on Kapalua Bay. Montage came on the market last June. This property was formerly the Ritz Carlton Residences. The Ritz Residences went into foreclosure and the property was purchased by Lantern Capital. Lantern appointed Montage to manage and revamp the property. Montage has seen steady sales since it has come on the market despite pricing that starts in the mid three million dollar range. There have been 8 sales reported at Montage thus far this year.
The other notable sale was at Ritz Carlton Residences. To be clear, this is a different animal from the Ritz Residences Kapalua Bay that was previously foreclosed upon. These condos are part of the Ritz Carlton Hotel. The Ritz condos had been on the market closer to the downturn and weren’t getting as much traction. They are back under the market with a new sales team. It will be interesting to see how these condos are received by the market going forward. From what I have heard, they are getting a pretty good response.
While the two new developments have been relatively well received, some of the older complexes have seen slower activity. High end Kapalua condos like Coconut Grove and the Ironwoods are traditionally condos that see limited inventory and limited sales volume. There was one sale in the Ironwoods this year. Kapalua Bay Villas is a condo that seems to be getting poor market feedback by luxury buyers. There have been 4 sales over $1,500,000 at Bay Villas since 2009. There are currently 7 active listings in the complex with none pending. It appears as if sellers in this complex may need to adjust pricing if they are going to generate interest from buyers.
For the rest of the year, I would anticipate that we will continue to see activity at Montage and the Ritz. Buyers in Kapalua have a good selection of inventory to choose from. You can see the full inventory of Kapalua Condos on the MLS on MauiRealEstate.com. Contact The Maui Real Estate Team directly if you would like us to assist you with buyer representation at either the Montage or the Ritz. There is more inventory available at both of those condos than what is showing on the MLS.
Other Condo Sales Around the Island
In addition to the activity at the resort communities, there have been a handful of sales from other communities around the island. There was one sale in Spreckelsville at Sugar Cove, one in Lahaina at Puamana and one at the Royal Mauian in Kihei. There were also two sales over on Lanai including one at the Terraces at Manele and the other was at the Palms at Manele. The two Lanai purchases were both Larry Ellison buys as he continues to expand his holdings on the island. We tend to see limited activity on higher priced condos outside the main resort areas not so much due to lack of demand as it is a lack of inventory. There are only a handful of condos outside the resorts that can sustain prices of $1,500,000 or greater and they tend not to have a ton of inventory.
Overall Thoughts on the Maui Luxury Condo Market
Buyers still have a great collection of condos to choose from around the island. There are both new development opportunities and condo resales in more established condominiums. While the depth of the inventory may provide options, sellers in this price range tend to have more staying power. The challenge is finding potentially motivated sellers who might want or need to redeploy their money elsewhere.
I would expect that the luxury condo market will continue to be perform at or near the levels we have seen for the year to date. While interest rate increases have been postponed, this isn’t a part of the market that is as interest rate sensitive. The bulk of the buyers are using cash or private banking. The biggest potential impacts to the market come from the greater global economy. Poor performance in the stock market is a potential threat. There seems to be something of a correlation between the DOW and high end sales on the island. We have not seen any significant influxes of buyers from China like some cities in the Western U.S. and Canada. Contact The Maui Real Estate Team if you are interested in buying or selling a luxury condo on Maui. We would welcome the chance to sit down with you for a free consultation and to discuss your interests and needs.
Maui Real Estate Blog
Four Trends That We Saw in The Maui Real Estate Market in 2014
With the year coming to an end, I wanted to take a few minutes to highlight four trends that I saw in the 2014 Maui real estate market. I also wanted to give a few thoughts on what was the driving force behind those trends and my predictions on what trends may continue or emerge in 2015.
Shrinking Inventory at The Entry Level
Housing options at the lowest price points of the market have been steadily shrinking over the last 18 months. There are fewer lower priced distressed properties and rapid appreciation during 2013 meant a lot fewer options for buyers interested in getting their foot in the door. For those looking for a home, inventory under $400,000 is becoming exceedingly rare with limited options all the way up to $500,000. In the condo market, the options under $200,000 are becoming increasingly scarce. It is getting harder to find vacation rental condos under $300,000.
Slowing Condo Sales Volume
The total number of condos sold this year is going to be down roughly 12% below what we saw last year. After a couple of particularly slow sales months earlier this fall, I took a look at what may be driving the drop. In my September Maui Real Estate Statistics, I analyzed the distribution of sales via price point and found that the biggest drop in sales was occurring at the bottom of the market. This would appear to suggest that the drop in sales activity has been largely driven by an absence of inventory.
Slowing Rates of Price Appreciation
During 2013, the Maui Real Estate market saw segments that experienced extremely strong rates of appreciation. There were some entry level condos that rose in value as much as 80% over bottom of the market prices. Entry level homes saw more modest appreciation, but there were some communities that saw prices jump 20% or more in 2013 alone. With the last downturn still fresh in many buyers minds, I think some buyers are wary the market won’t be able to sustain the same levels of appreciation. I also think the jump in values of 2013 pushed the market beyond some buyers means. That makes it not much of a surprise that we saw slower rates of appreciation this year. That was most evident in entry level condos where prices have seen very limited increases in value this year.
Continued Strength in the Luxury Market
The luxury home and condo market saw continued improvement in 2014. Condo sales over $1,500,000 were up 9% over 2013. The luxury condo market was bolstered by heightened activity at the Honua Kai Resort and the popularity of the Montage Residences on Kapalua Bay. Luxury home sales over $2,000,000 had an even stronger year with roughly a 30% increase in sales activity. Another strong year in the stock market and overall improved economic conditions helped bolster luxury market activity.
Now that we have covered the four major trends that I saw in 2014, what trends do I expect to see in 2015? I expect all four trends noted above continuing into 2015. Entry market buyers are unlikely to see an influx of new listings to satiate the considerable demand for more affordable housing options. I would imagine that limited entry level inventory will keep continue to impact condo sales volumes. I am not sure if that will result in a continued decrease in activity or similar demand to what we saw this year. I would lean towards the latter. I don’t expect 2015 to be a year of double digit price increases. The one X factor could be the introduction of a broader pool of buyers due to lowered down payment requirements by Fannie and Freddie. That may boost demand a little which in turn could impact pricing.
I would expect that the luxury market will continue to perform well based on positive economic forecasts. Luxury buyers should have lots of new inventory to choose from with more units available at Montage and Honua Kai. There are two new condo developments expected to hit the market in Wailea. Last but not least, Discovery Development should be starting sales of their properties down in Makena.
One last thing that I think will be worth watching in 2015 is the impact of foreign buyers on the market. In particular, I suspect that we are likely to see fewer Canadians buying in the Maui market. Maui has been an extremely popular locale for Canadian second home buyers due to the recent strength of the Canadian Dollar. With the Looney slipping in value and the Alberta oil economy slowing due to shrinking gas prices, I would expect we may see a few less Canadian buyers.
It will be interesting to take a look back at the end of 2015 to see if my predictions come to fruition. In the interim, stay tuned to the Maui Real Estate Blog. I will have a whole lot more stats and market analysis for the island as a whole, specific communities and even neighborhoods. Contact The Maui Real Estate Team if you have questions about the market or you would like to discuss your real estate needs.
Maui Real Estate Blog
Sneak Peek at the June 2014 Maui Real Estate Statistics
June is always a fun month on Maui. With events like the Maui Film Festival, The Kapalua Food and Wine Festival and the Slack Key Guitar Festival, it is little wonder why the month always seems to pass by in a blink of the eye. The end of the month also means another opportunity to take the pulse of the Maui Real Estate market. This Sneak Peek at the Maui Real Estate stats takes a look at June’s median prices and sales volumes compared to June of 2013. I also want to share some of the other interesting numbers that I came across while compiling the June sales volumes. I give my thoughts on the state of the market, and I give a sense of what the sales might look like in the coming months as we document the number of properties that went under contract over the last month. Without further ado, here are the numbers for June.
June 2014 Maui Real Estate Sales Volumes and Median Prices
There were 90 homes sold in June with a median sales price of $535,000. Last June there were 92 homes sold with a median price of $579,500. That is a 2% dip in sales volumes and an 8% dip in median price.
There were 94 condos sold last month with a median price of $444,500. In June of 2013, there were 125 condos sold with a median of $400,000. That equates to a 25% drop in volume and an 11% jump in median price.
There were 18 lots sold on Maui in June of 2014 with a median of $545,500. Last June there were 19 sales reported with a median of $469,260. That is a modest dip in volume of 5% and a 16% increase in median price.
Other Noteworthy Numbers from the June 2014 Real Estate Sales Activity in Maui County
While compiling the numbers above, I came across a few other numbers that I think are worth sharing.
- The high home sale for the month was $5,700,000 for a cottage on 4.55 oceanfront acres in Olowalu.
- That was one of six total home sales over $2,000,000 for the month of June. There were 2 home sold in Ka’anapali, 2 in Wailea, and one in Launiupoko.
- The first six months of the year proved to be strong for luxury home sales. There were 37 homes sold for over $2,000,000 during the first half of 2014. There were 26 sold in the first half of 2013. That is a 42% jump in activity over the first six months of 2013.
- The highest priced condo sale last month was a 3 bedroom unit at Hoolei that closed for $3,250,000.
- The Hoolei sale was one of 7 sales over $1,500,000 last month. Hoolei was a hotbed of high end activity with two other sales over $1,500,000. The other condo complexes with big transactions included Ka’anapali Ali’i, The Terraces at Manele Bay on Lanai and Honua Kai (two sales).
- This was also the end of a strong first half of 2014 for luxury condo sales. There 51 condos sold for over $1,500,000 during the first six months of the year. Last year there were 31 condos sold for over $1,500,000. That is a 65% jump in activity.
- There were 12 REO or bank owned sales in June. That is up over last June’s 5 sales. There appears to be a little bit of an uptick in bank owned properties coming on the market. I will have a few more thoughts on the bank owned numbers below.
The Numbers That Really Stood Out and What They Mean
The condo numbers stood out to me the most of any part of the June stats. This is two months in a row where condo sales have been significantly lower compared to last year. As mentioned above, the luxury side of the market is outperforming 2013 so that means other parts of the market are under performing. Over the last two months, the primary culprit appears to be condos priced under $500,000. There were 120 sales priced under $500,000 in May and June of this year compared to 181 during May and June of 2013. That’s a 33% drop in activity. Why the big drop in sales? Shrinking inventory and price increases are playing a part. The inventory of condos under $200,000 that prohibit vacation rentals has seen a big dip. Many of those condos that were in that range last year are well into the $200,000s this year. We have also seen a pretty big drop in the number of vacation rental condos available under $400,000.
Home sales experienced a much smaller drop in activity in June compared to last year. Why are home sales doing a little better than condo sales? Anecdotally, it also appears as if we are seeing an uptick in inventory in the $600,000 and under range. My clients looking at entry level homes and properties just above that level have seen more options lately. Local buyers are feeling pressure to snatch up the new inventory as entry level homes have seen strong appreciation and interest rates threaten to rise on better economic news.
Some of the increased inventory we are seeing on the market is bank owned. This was one of the first months in a while where bank owned sales outpaced sales from the same month a year ago. This looks like it might sustain itself for at least a couple of months, and it is worth watching over the longer term. There were 19 bank owned listings that came on the market in June. That is the highest number of bank owned listings we have seen in a month since May of 2012. We are 3 days into July and there are already 3 new REO listings. Hawaii has a big backlog of properties facing judicial foreclosure moving through the court system. It appears as if some of the backlog might be starting to move through the courts. This bank owned inventory may help satiate some of the pent up demand from buyers.
Bargain hunters who are looking to find a bank owned home for a steal of a price may be disappointed. Most banks seem to have a different pricing strategy in a rising market vs. a falling market. While many banks were dumping their assets below comparable sales as the market was falling, they are seeking market prices in the rising market. In some cases, they are pricing above the market and having to adjust pricing downward. While there may be a few bargains here or there, REOs won’t provide the same opportunities that they did 3-4 years ago.
June Pending Sales
As mentioned previously on the blog, property sales can be a lagging indicator for the market due to transaction times. As a result, we have been keeping track of the pending sales on our blog. These numbers should also give you some sense of what we might expect for sales volumes in July and August.
The number of homes that went under contract in June was up 28% over the number that went under contract in June of 2013. Combined with the fact that there were more homes going under contract in May, I would anticipate stronger home sales for July. The number of condos that went under contract was down 24% compared to last year. That is a continuation of recent trends where condo pendings have been lower compared to last year. The one outlier is land sales. Land sales activity appears to be way down in June with a 74% drop in the number of properties going under contract.
Thoughts for Prospective Maui Home Buyers and Sellers
What does all of this mean for buyers and sellers. While there may be some new inventory out on the market for home buyers, there has been some pent up demand as well. A couple of the more intriguing new listings that I saw hit the market this week are already in multiple offer situations. That means buyers looking at the middle and the lower price points in the market will need to have their ducks in a row when looking. Buyers who need financing assistance should be pre-approved prior to looking. If you see a well priced property that fits your needs, you will need to act quickly or another buyer will beat you to the punch. Sellers have a bit more of a mixed bag. There are still some pockets of the market with higher inventory. Sellers in those market that want to sell quickly may need to lower their pricing expectations to stand out from the competition. Over priced properties are sitting even in some of the busier segments of the market. Contact The Maui Real Estate Team if you are considering buying or selling a home on Maui. We would welcome the opportunity to sit down with you for a free consultation.
Maui Real Estate Blog
September 2013 Maui Real Estate Statistics Sneak Peek
It’s hard to believe it is October and we are into the last quarter of the 2013. This is typically the quiet season for the Maui Real Estate market as this is also one of the quietest times of year for vacationers. That appears to be the case this year as we have seen the number of pending properties gradually decreasing in number since Labor Day. There are different dynamics than last fall when we saw a shift in buyer sentiment and some of the busiest months of 2012 for properties going under contract. I may be a little bit ahead of myself talking about current buyer activity. Typically when we are looking at sales data, it is more a reflection of buyer demand over the previous couple of months. With a typical transaction time of anywhere between 30-60 days, the September sales are a reflection of demand from back during the summer months. Based on the numbers, it is safe to say that this summer there was strong real estate activity. Here are the numbers that I compiled for September of 2013 in Maui County. I will also give a few thoughts on the state of the market via a brief video commentary.
Thus far, there have been 85 home sales reported during the month of September with a median sales price of $470,000. During September of 2012, there were 77 sales with a median sales price of $425,000. That calculates to a 10% increase in sales volume and an 11% increase in median when comparing this September to last September.
I counted 114 condo sales reported by Maui Realtors for the month of September. The median sales price for those transactions was $350,000. That compares to only 67 sales last year with a median price of $325,000. That calculates to an impressive 70% increase in sales activity and an 8% increase in median when comparing the two Septembers.
I counted 15 land sales last month with a median sales price of $350,000. By comparison, there were 11 land sales last September with a median price of $238,000. That is a 36% increase in volume and a 47% increase in median price when comparing September of 2013 and September of 2012.
In addition to the median prices and sales volumes, there were a few other numbers that I came across from the September Maui Real Estate Sales that I thought were worth passing along this month.
- The highest sale for a single family home was $1,940,000 for a residential condo in the Launiupoko Subdivision just south of Lahaina. This has been a community that has shown strong luxury home and land sales activity over the last 18 months.
- This high sale was somewhat unusual for two reasons. It was below $2,000,000 and it was a short sale.
- The high condo sale for September was $3,469,600 for a luxurious Three bedroom at Honua Kai.
- There were a total of eight condo sales over $1,500,000 as the luxury condo market continues a strong year.
- Five of the eight luxury condo closes were at Honua Kai. For the last year, buyers have been snatching up condos under $1,000,000 at Honua Kai. We are starting to see an increase in activity in the $1,000,000 plus range at this popular West Maui Resort.
- There were a total of eleven REO or bank owned properties that closed in September. REO activity remains low compared to what we were seeing a couple of years ago.
- There were 24 short sales that were successfully completed last month. Short sale closes have remained a little more steady.
Here are a few thoughts on the stats, a little bit of context on the significance of the numbers and my guess as to what we may see in the coming months.
Contact The Maui Real Estate Team with any questions or comments on this month’s statistics. You are also welcome of course to leave a comment below. If you are considering buying or selling a property on Maui, we would welcome the opportunity to sit down and discuss your real estate needs.
Maui Real Estate Blog
Maui Real Estate 2013 Midyear Update
We have just passed the midway point of 2013. Thus far, this has proven to be a busy year for the Maui Real Estate market. I give a few thoughts on the first six months of the year as well as some thoughts on what we may see during the second half of 2013 in my video commentary below. Below the commentary, you will find specific details on the midyear Maui Real Estate stats.
By my count, there were 479 homes sold in the first six months of 2013 with a median price of $542,000. In the first half of 2012, there were 439 homes sold with a median price of $450,000. That is a 9% increase in sales volume and a 20% increase in median price when comparing the first half of 2013 to the first half of 2012.
Thus far there have been 672 condos sold during the first half of 2013 with a median sales price of $372,990. In the first six months of 2012, there were a total of 668 condos sold with a median price of $351,495. That is for all intents and purpose no significant change in sales volume with a 6% increase in median price when comparing the two time periods.
There were a total of 97 land sales in Maui County during the first six months of 2013 with a median sales price of $450,000. During the first half of 2012, there were 80 land sales with a median sales price of $352,500. That calculates to a 21% increase in sales volume and almost a 28% increase in median prices.
Maui has seen a big decrease in inventory below the median price points of the market. One of the reasons for decreased inventory has been a reduction in the number of bank owned (REO) properties on the market. That is evidenced by the reduction in the number of bank owned sales that closed in the first six months of the year.
There were 37 REO home sales in the first half of 2013. During the first half of 2012 there were 96 REO homes sold. That is a 61% reduction in bank owned sales.
There were 18 bank owned condo sales in the first half of 2013. During the first half of 2012, there were 72 bank owned condo sales. That is a 75% reduction in REO condo sales.
There were 7 REO land transactions in the first half of 2013. During the first six months of 2012, there were 11 REO land sales. That is a 36% reduction in bank owned land sales.
During 2012, we actually saw a dip in sales activity in the luxury property market. The dip was particularly strong among luxury condo sales. This was a little bit of a surprise in light of an overall increase in home, condo and land sales from the year before. The first six months of 2013 showed renewed interest in the luxury market as all three segments saw improvements over the first half of 2012.
By my count, there were 25 homes priced $2,000,000 higher sold in Maui during the first six months of 2012. That is a modest 4% increase over the 24 luxury homes sold in the first six months of 2012.
There were 31 condo sales over $1,500,000 during the first six months of 2013. That is a 41% increase over the 22 sold during the first half of 2012.
There were 20 land sales of $1,000,000 or more during the first six months of 2013. That is a 122% increase over the 9 lots sold during the first half of 2012.
Here were a few other notes and numbers from the Maui luxury property market during the first six months of 2012.
- The highest priced home sale was $9,700,000 for an oceanfront estate in Kapalua.
- The Wailea and Makena real estate market was the busiest area for luxury home sales. There were 8 sales in Wailea and five in Makena. The Wailea Golf Estates neighborhood had more $2,000,000 or greater sales than most other communities on the island with 4 total sales.
- The highest priced condo sale was $4,450,000 for a 3bedroom/three bath unit at the Honua Kai Resort on the north end of Airport Beach in Ka’anapali.
- Ka’anapali was the second most active community for luxury condo sales with 12 total closes over $1,500,000. The Wailea and Makena market was the busiest with 16 closes.
- Wailea Point was the most active individual condo complex with 6 closes followed by Honua Kai and Ka’anapali Ali’i with 5 closes each.
- The highest priced land sale was $10,000,000 for 159 acres in Makena.
If you have any questions or observations on these stats, don’t hesitate to leave us a comment or feel free to contact us directly. Stay tuned to The Maui Real Estate Blog for midyear market updates from some selected communities around the island.
Maui Real Estate Blog
Maui 2012 Year End Market Report
We wanted to take a little bit of a different look at the 2012 year end statistics for Maui County. While we will give a brief look at the broad view. I wanted to hone in on the distribution of sales. While 2012 was a stronger year for sales overall, not all price ranges in the market performed equally. We want to show how different segments of the market performed and compare those segments to the current inventory. That may help us get a better sense of the 2013 outlook for the market. Without further ado, here are the numbers.
There were 933 home sales reported in Maui during 2012 with a median sales price of $470,000. By comparison, there were 901 sales in 2011 with a median sales price of $432,500. That calculates to a 4% increase in sales volume and a 9% increase in median sales price.
During 2012, there were 1,248 condo sales reported on Maui with a median sales price of $358,995. By comparison, the 2011 numbers were 1,157 units sold with a median sales price of $310,000. That calculates to an 8% increase in volume and a 16% increase in median price.
There were 173 land sales reported in Maui County during 2012 with a median price of $350,000. In 2011, the numbers were 134 lots sold with a median price of $310,500. That means that the 2012 land sales increased 29% over and the median increased 13% over 2011.
While the overall market showed improvements in volume for all three types of property, market performance on Maui varied by price point. The chart below compares the sales volume of homes at various price ranges during 2012 and 2011.
There were a few things that I found noteworthy about the chart above. First and foremost, luxury sales activity decreased in 2012 compared to 2011. There were 41 sales over $2,000,000 in 2012. There were 61 sales over $2,000,000 in 2011. That is a 33% drop in volume. On the other end of the spectrum, it was noteworthy that the activity dropped below $300,000. The reason for the drop in activity at the low end isn’t due to a lack of buyer interest. With record low interest rates, first time home buyers were very active. Instead, we are starting to see the impact of reduced inventory. Prices began to rise at the bottom end of the market and there were fewer bank owned properties in that price range. The middle of the market saw greater variability in performance depending on price range. Some slices of the market saw more activity in 2012 while others saw less. That being said the overall trend in the middle was an increase in activity.
The chart below compares the distribution of sales for condos between 2011 and 2012.
While condo sales were up overall in 2012, we also saw variability in performance by price range. Some of the same trends that were evident in the home market also appeared in the condo market. As with the home market, luxury condo sales were down. There were 46 condos sold above $1,500,000 in 2012. There were 65 sold over $1,500,000 in 2011. That is approximately a 29% drop in volume. The lowest price ranges in the condo market also saw a dip in inventory and a subsequent drop in sales volume. Sales under $200,000 were off 18% below 2011 levels. As with the home market, this wasn’t due to lack of demand. We just saw a shrinking of entry level condo inventory during 2012 due in part to price increases and a big reduction in the number of bank owned listings.
The chart below compares the distribution of land sales on Maui during 2011 and 2012.
The land market was a little different than the home and condo market in 2012 in that we saw improvements in the vast majority of price ranges. The low end was up and much of the middle of the market was stronger. The luxury market was down slightly with 1 less sale over $1,000,000. The land market was lagging more so than condos and homes going into 2012. It had the greatest inventory and lower levels of demand going into the year. Sales outpaced 2011 levels through much of the year with an added boost in the last couple of months. The lack of interest in this market meant more motivated sellers and comparative values.
While the charts above provide us some historical data on last year’s market, they don’t tell us a whole lot about the current market. I hope the next three charts will help to tell that story. These three charts show the current inventory of properties by price point juxtaposed against the 2012 sales volumes by price point. Assuming that demand is equal to or potentially greater than what we saw last year, this will help to show parts of the market where inventory is really constrained and the other parts of the market where there is a relative abundance of property to choose from. A few things to note about these charts. Current inventory includes active listings as of January 24th. It does not include properties under contract. The active inventory includes all of Maui County including Lanai and Molokai.
It is said that a healthy real estate market will have six months of inventory. More than six months supply is thought to be a surplus. Less than six months and you are considered to have a shortage of properties for sale. As you can see from this chart comparing current home inventory against 2012 home sales, the Maui Real Estate market is seeing very different dynamics based on price range. The low end of the market is experiencing extremely low supplies of home inventory. Based on last year’s sales rates, there is about one month of supply of homes in the $300,000-$399,000 price range. The numbers are slightly better under $300,000, but that is somewhat deceiving. The supply on the island of Maui is almost nonexistent. Most of the active homes in this range are located on the neighboring islands of Molokai and Lanai. Supplies are still constrained until you get to the $800-900,000 price range. At that point, the supply is a little more than six months of inventory. As you get higher in price, the tables turn considerably. Once you get over $1,000,000, there is over a year of inventory based on last year’s absorption rates. In the price range from $1,750,000-$2,000,000, the supply of homes exceeds two years of inventory. From that price point and higher, you have anywhere between 2 and seven years of inventory depending on price ranges.
It is clear that home buyers looking at prices below the median price point are going to find that market conditions are tight. Selection is limited and well priced properties are being snatched up extremely quickly. Those that are venturing into this part of the market will need to be prepared to act quickly when well priced properties come on the market. The recipes are in place for price increases to occur on the low end. High demand and low supply will do that. That being said, I think there are some barriers in place that will constrain prices from rising too quickly. The biggest barrier is appraisal. Appraisers are a lot more conservative then when they were in the boom market. We have already seen issues with appraisal on properties that experienced competitive bidding.
The numbers above suggest a buyer’s market for luxury homes on Maui. There should be a few caveats to that statement. Not all communities and price points in Maui have the same level of supply. For example, if you look at a place like Wailea there are three homes for sale between $1,000,000 and $1,500,000. There were eight sales in Wailea at that price point last year. That means less than six months of supply in that price range. Where there is high supply, it doesn’t necessarily mean an abundance of motivated sellers. Many of the luxury home owners have significant staying power and may well be able to ride things out until market conditions improve. While there may be some motivated sellers out there, I think the biggest advantage to being a luxury buyer in this market will be the general quality of selection. Another thing to note is that I am using last year’s absorption rate. We are starting to see some anecdotal evidence of increased activity in the luxury market this year. Luxury markets saw improvement on the mainland last year. Typically, we lag behind mainland trends by a few months. If the luxury market is in fact improving, those “years” of inventory could shrink quickly.
Looking at the chart above, the condo market is seeing some similar dynamics to the home market. There are tight inventories on the lower price ranges and robust inventories in the luxury markets. Currently, there is less than six months of inventory below $400,000. The inventory is even tighter than it appears below $200,000. A third of the properties listed in that price range are leasehold. There are also quite a few properties from Molokai and Lanai included in that inventory. The market dynamics change quite a bit as you go higher in price. Inventory between $400,000 to $1,000,000 range from a little over six months to a little over a year of inventory. Once you get over $1,250,000 and up into the luxury market, the inventory well exceeds last year’s demand. While there are more condos to choose from in this range, it can be a little more challenging finding motivated sellers. Again, many of the high end condo owners have the deep pockets that allow them to hold out for longer on pricing.
The land market has been far weaker than the home and condo market since 2007. Limited demand has allowed supplies to stay high. That is reflected in the chart above. The only price range with less than six months of inventory is below $200,000. Once you get above $300,000 there is more than a year of inventory. When you get over $500,000, you have two years of inventory or more depending on specific price points. That being said, November and December of 2012 were the two best months of sales since 2007. If the market were to sustain itself at that level, inventories could start to shrink quickly. I would not be surprised if that happened as buyers have started to explore the land market with fewer options available among the inventory of homes for sale. The other thing to note is that scarcity and abundance vary by community.
In general, the charts above suggest that we will have an interesting 2013 for Maui Real Estate. The limited supply at lower price points in the market may lead to a decrease in sales volume. The tight supply also is creating a dynamic that will result in price increases. Tight supplies and high demand are leading to a lot of bidding wars at the low end. As you go up in price, the overall supply of properties should limit the potential for any price increases. That being said, supply and demand in specific geographies may allow for price increases at higher prices. While the sheer volume of inventory suggests that there may be plenty of opportunities for luxury buyers, I would argue that their biggest advantage is going to be the selection of properties to chose from rather than highly motivated sellers. If you are interested in entering the Maui Real Estate market during 2013, we would welcome the opportunity to discuss your needs. Contact The Maui Real Estate Team today to arrange a free consultation.