This is our 24th installment of the Maui Market Musings. This latest edition looks at market activity and inventory levels as of the end of February. These posts tend to be long so I will keep the intro on the short side. Without further ado, here are the numbers.

February Market Activity

The tables below show new inventory, new pending listings and closed transactions during February with data from the previous five years provided for additional context.

New Inventory

	2/23	2/22	2/21	2/20	2/19	2/18
Homes	68	122	117	119	141	115
Condos	82	178	202	159	161	191

Like most places, inventory remains constrained on Maui. February did not provide much in the way of inventory relief. New home inventory came in 44% lower than February of 2022. It is between 41% and 52% lower than the three Februaries prior to the start of Covid. New condo inventory is 54% lower than February of 2022. It is anywhere between 48% and 57% lower than any of the three months of February between 2018 and 2020.

Pending Sales

	2/23	2/22	2/21	2/20	2/19	2/18
Homes	57	94	133	85	90	83
Condos	79	170	238	127	127	161

While inventory remains low, transaction volume does too. Pending home sales came in 39% lower than last year. The activity in the home market for this February is anywhere between 31% and 37% below the three Februaries between 2018-2020. For the condo market, the drop from last year is more dramatic with 54% fewer pending sales. February 2023 pending condo sales are anywhere between 38% and 51% below the three Februaries prior to Covid.

From time to time, I will hear someone rationalize that low buyer activity is just due to lower inventory. You might be able to make that argument with some segments of the vacation rental condo market. That said, affordability is clearly a significant factor in driving the lower volumes. Prices just haven’t seen significant adjustments since the spike in rates. That’s not to say that there aren’t buyers in this market, it is just a smaller pool.

Closed Transactions

	2/23	2/22	2/21	2/20	2/19	2/18
Homes	38	83	96	80	75	95
Condos	65	157	162	130	119	123

This February’s closed transactions reflect the low pending sales between November and January. For homes, the 38 homes sold is 54% lower than last February. That is between 49% and 60% lower than the three last pre-Covid Februaries. On the condo side, the 65 closed sales is 59% below last year and anywhere between 44% and 50% below any February between 2018 and 2020.

End of February Maui Home Inventory

The charts below show active and pending home sales by price point and community on the last day of the month over the last three months.

	12/31/22		1/31/23		2/28/23
	Active	Pending	Active	Pending	Active	Pending
<$750,000	6	10	10	11	10	7 (-4)
$750,000-$999,999	25	28	21	25	30 (+9)	28 (+3)
$1,000,000-$1,499,999	78	20	71	30	59 (-12)	40 (+10)
$1,500,000-$1,999,999	36	11	33	9	32 (-1)	7 (-2)
$2,000,000-$2,999,999	37	12	42	7	37 (-5)	13 (+3)
$3,000,000-$4,999,999	31	9	32	10	35 (+3)	9 (-1)
$5,000,000-$9,999,999	27	8	27	6	26 (-1)	9 (+3)
$10,000,000-$19,999,999	14	0	16	0	13 (-3)	1 (+1)
$20,000,000+	4	2	5	1	5	1
Total	258	100	257	99	247 (-10)	115 (+16)

	12/31/22		1/31/23		2/28/23
	Active	Pending	Active	Pending	Active	Pending
Haiku	29	7	26	7	27 (+1)	5 (-2)
Hana	10	1	9	1	11 (+2)	1
Ka’anapali	9	3	10	5	10	5
Kahului	16	13	13	11	18 (+5)	8 (-3)
Kapalua	5	3	7	1	6 (-1)	2 (+1)
Kihei	39	7	32	17	29 (-3)	24 (+7)
Kula	21	10	21	11	14 (-7)	14 (+3)
Lahaina	18	11	19	9	16 (-3)	8 (-1)
Makawao	35	4	31	6	27 (-4)	8 (+2)
Napili/Kahana/Hono	13	3	13	1	12 (-1)	2 (+1)
Pukalani	7	3	11	4	7 (-4)	6 (+2)
Sprecks/Paia	9	1	8	1	10 (+2)	0 (-1)
Wailea	13	6	16	3	14 (-2)	7 (+4)
Wailuku	25	25	30	17	35 (+5)	21 (+4)

Three Notable Things About the End of February Maui Home Inventory

• Active home inventory dropped 4% between January 31st and February 28th. Pending sales increased 16%. The new listings in February and the new pending sales in February further up the page provide some context. The decrease in inventory is largely due to new listings coming in way below normal. An increase in pending sales is pretty normal for this time of year, but the rate of increase is well below normal.
• Market activity was something of a mixed bag by price point. The $1,000,000-$1,499,999 saw the biggest increase in pending sales. That is a little bit of a surprise with interest rates increasing again.
• Looking at the inventory at a community level, all of Upcountry saw an increase in pending listings and a decrease in active listings. Kula inventory is particularly low. Kihei also saw a notable increase in pending sales. The resorts were relatively quiet. While Wailea pending sales increased by a few, buyer activity is still below normal for this time of year.

End of February Maui Condo Inventory

The charts below provide end of the month active and pending condo inventory by price point and district. It is worth noting that the Wailea pending sales continue to receive a boost from 75 new developer units under contract in La’i Loa at Wailea Hills. These properties went pending between 2020 and the the first quarter of 2021. Priced from just under $1,500,000 all the way up to over $4,000,000, these long term contracts are also skewing the pending sales upwards in this price range. Paradise Ridge Estates is another new development in Kihei with 18 pending sales based on contracts signed between 2018 and the first quarter of 2022. Eight units in Paradise Ridge Estates closed on March 1st so the impact will be diminished in next month’s numbers.

	12/31/22		1/31/23		2/28/23
	Active	Pending	Active	Pending	Active	Pending
<$250,000	2	2	1	2	2 (+1)	2
$250,000-$499,999	12	16	14	11	16 (+2)	14 (+3)
$500,000-$749,999	38	25	49	31	41 (-8)	42 (+11)
$750,000-$999,999	42	27	39	42	29 (-10)	45 (+3)
$1,000,000-$1,499,999	32	21	29	32	33 (+4)	30 (-2)
$1,500,000-$1,999,999	26	29	30	35	33 (+3)	35
$2,000,000-$2,999,999	18	36	17	40	18 (+1)	41 (+1)
$3,000,000-$4,999,999	10	18	11	17	12 (+1)	17
$5,000,000-$9,999,999	14	0	12	2	13 (+1)	0
$10,000,000+	4	0	4	0	5 (+1)	0
Totals	198	174	206	212	202	226

	12/31/22		1/31/23		2/28/23
	Active	Pending	Active	Pending	Active	Pending
Ka’anapali	22	9	24	12	27 (+3)	6 (-6)
Kahului	4	3	3	4	3	4
Kapalua	12	3	13	6	14 (+1)	5 (-1)
Kihei	61	45	65	72	52 (-13)	79 (+7)
Lahaina	11	12	12	9	14 (+2)	9
Ma’alaea	5	5	5	7	5	7
Napili/Kahana/Honokowai	50	16	50	14	52 (+2)	21 (+7)
Wailea	27	79	26	81	28 (+2)	85 (+4)
Wailuku	4	4	7	6	7	8 (+2)

Three Notable Things from the End of February Condo Inventory

• Active condo listings dipped 2% and pending condo listings increased almost 7% between January 31st and February 28th. Again, the story may be better explained by the numbers for new inventory and new pending sales in February further up this post. It’s expected to see pending sales increase in February. The extent to which they are increasing is well below normal.
• Looking at active and pending sales by price point, the biggest decrease in active listings and the biggest increase in pending listings occurred under $1,000,000. The higher price points were quiet with an increase in listings and only one additional pending over $1,500,000..
• At a district level, Kihei and Napili/Kahana and Honokowai saw the biggest increase in pending sales. This is not too big of a surprise considering the season. This is peak buying season for vacation rental condos. The resorts are surprisingly quiet with Ka’anapali and Kapalua seeing a drop in pending sales. Wailea’s pendings increased modestly after a quiet January.

Some Quick Thoughts

Weird conditions persist. There is still something of a balance in this market that is sustaining prices. As established above, demand is lower, but inventory remains low too. That’s what differentiates Maui from markets on the mainland seeing more significant price decreases. That said, Maui is not monolithic. There are parts of the market where properties are going under contract quickly and others where the days on market are steadily ticking upward.

Buyers searching for vacation rental condos in beach towns like Kihei can expect properties to go under contract relatively quickly. It may not be 2021 or early 2022, but when a 2 bedroom vacation rental in a good complex hits the market, it is safe to say it won’t last more than a few days. It is hard to assess the depth of that buyer pool, but inventory is so incredibly scarce that prices continue to go up in this area due largely to scarcity.

On the other end of the spectrum, the luxury condo market is quiet. Between January 1 and the end of February, only 5 condos went under contract for more than $2,500,000. This is well below 29 during the same period of 2022. It’s worth noting, activity is below pre-Covid levels but the drop off isn’t quite as steep. Slower activity in the luxury market is a national trend. The reasons extend beyond rates.

The home market is also pretty variable. The one real difference with the condo market is that there are no segments of the market that truly feel frothy. Some new listings are going under contract relatively quickly, but it a far cry from the madness of last February.

A Little Maui Beauty to Brighten This Post

Well, we made it to our twentieth Market Musings. This post took me a while to put together. I want to say it’s because it is chock full of tremendous insight. The truth is my last 9-10 days consisted primarily of battling Covid. My symptoms made writing this post a protracted slog. Give me some grace if there are typos and/or a few not so coherent thoughts interspersed throughout the text.

In our last post, I talked about the relative resilience of the Maui market under higher rates. Since that time, rates rose even more. The additional bump in rates or perhaps just a longer duration of time with higher rates is weighing on the Maui market. The single family home market in particular is feeling the burden of higher rates and decreased affordability. Musings 20 takes a look at some of the current market indicators including active and pending inventory, price reductions and how quickly new listings are going under contract.

End of October Maui Single Family Home Inventory

	8/31/22		9/31/22		10/31/22
	Active	Pending	Active	Pending	Active	Pending
<$750,000	11	11	7	14	9 (+1)	15 (+1)
$750,000-$999,999	31	44	21	46	29 (+8)	29 (-15)
$1,000,000-$1,499,999	58	28	45	33	64 (+19)	28 (-5)
$1,500,000-$1,999,999	46	13	44	17	41 (-3)	13 (-4)
$2,000,000-$2,999,999	36	12	33	12	35 (+2)	10 (-2)
$3,000,000-$4,999,999	32	11	35	11	32 (-3)	7 (-4)
$5,000,000-$9,999,999	26	5	27	6	26 (-1)	5 (-1)
$10,000,000-$19,999,999	11	0	11	0	9 (-2)	0
$20,000,000+	5	0	2	1	3 (+1)	1
Totals	256	124	225	140	248 (+23)	108 (-32)

	8/31/22		9/30/22		10/31/22
Haiku	20	7	24	7	28(+4)	9 (+2)
Hana	8	2	9	1	10 (+1)	0 (-1)
Ka’anapali	10	4	10	3	7 (-3)	2 (-1)
Kahului	11	25	7	26	16 (+9)	16 (-10)
Kapalua	4	1	4	0	6 (+2)	0
Kihei	44	16	35	16	40 (+5)	11 (-5)
Kula	24	10	22	11	20 (-2)	11
Lahaina	23	7	21	10	22 (+1)	13 (+3)
Makawao	15	11	13	11	13	9(-2)
Napili/Kahana/Hono…	14	4	9	7	11 (+2)	6 (-1)
Pukalani	8	5	6	7	8 (+2)	3 (-4)
Spreckelsville/Paia	15	3	10	4	8 (-2)	2 (-2)
Wailea/Makena	16	4	10	8	11 (+1)	4 (-4)
Wailuku	41	22	36	26	40 (+4)	21 (-5)

End of October Home Inventory Review

The information above is provided with the usual framework. The home inventory data by price point includes all of the island of Maui, but excludes the islands of Molokai and Lanai. The district information is limited to the districts and community with the most activity.

• After a pretty healthy drop in Inventory in September, active home listings increased by 10.22% by the end of October.
• The bulk of the inventory increased occurred between $750,00 and $1,500,000 with an increase of 27 listings in that range.
• It appears that this increase in inventory stems more from slower activity than an influx of new listings. That is reflected in the pending sales data with 20 fewer pending home sales between $750,000 and $1,500,000.
• This make sense as this is an area of the market where a higher percentage of buyers are using financing. Looking at all of the sales between August 1 and October 30th, 18.93% of the buyers in this price range paid cash. In all other price ranges, 41.77% of buyers used cash. Plain and simple, the increase in mortgage rates is hitting this segment of the market harder.
• Overall, the number of pending home sales decreased 22.86% between the end of September and the end of October. That is a substantial decrease, but worth noting that pending sales typically decline in the fall.
• Looking at the market on a community level, all but three districts increased inventory. The exceptions being Kula, Spreckelsville/Paia and Ka’anapali. Ka’anapali’s decrease stemmed in part due to cancelled listings rather than increased sales.
• Kahului experienced the biggest increase in active listings and the biggest decrease in pending sales. With the vast majority of the inventory in this community priced between $750,000 and $1,300,000, this is a market where the increased rates appear to causing a bigger shift in conditions.

End of October Condo Inventory

	8/31/22		9/30/22		10/31/22
	Active	Pending	Active	Pending	Active	Pending
<$250,000	1	6	1	3	2 (+1)	4 (+1)
$250,000-$499,999	14	17	11	16	19 (+8)	12 (-4)
$500,000-$749,999	34	43	28	40	32 (+4)	35 (-5)
$750,000-$999,999	33	43	33	33	27 (-6)	27 (-6)
$1,000,000-$1,499,999	29	31	19	36	21 (+2)	30 (-6)
$1,500,000-$1,999,999	24	35	18	34	14 (-4)	33 (-1)
$2,000,000-$2,999,999	22	38	14	43	15 (+1)	40 (-3)
$3,000,000-$4,999,999	12	19	10	17	10	17
$5,000,000-$9,999,999	8	1	7	0	11 (+4)	1 (+1)
$10,000,000+	4	0	4	0	3 (-1)	1 (+1)
Total	181	233	145	222	154 (+9)	200 (-22)

	8/31/22		9/30/22		10/31/22
	Active	Pending	Active	Pending	Active	Pending
Ka’anapali	25	16	17	14	18 (+1)	9 (-5)
Kahului	3	7	3	4	5 (+2)	5 (+1)
Kapalua	11	6	10	4	12 (+2)	4
Kihei	50	63	48	61	43 (-5)	60 (-1)
Lahaina	9	10	5	7	8 (+3)	4 (-3)
Ma’alaea	3	6	4	4	3 (-1)	6 (+2)
Napili/Kahana/Hono…	45	25	29	30	33 (+4)	17 (-13)
Wailea	24	86	19	86	19	85 (-1)
Wailuku	9	14	8	12	11 (+3)	10 (-2)

End of October Condo Inventory Review

Again, the tables above come with the usual framework for our end of month inventory. The table by price point includes all condos on Maui, but it does not include condos on the islands of Molokai or Lanai. The table with districts is limited to the communities with the most activity.

Pending sales at La’i Loa at Wailea Hills skew the data in Wailea and the $1,500,000-$5,000,000 price ranges. There are 75 pending sales in that development based on contracts penned in 2020 and the first quarter of 2021. Pending sales in La’i Loa won’t start to close until sometime in 2023. Paradise Ridge Estates in Kihei also skews the data albeit to a lesser extent. There are 18 pending sales with that development based on contracts penned between 2018 and the first quarter of 2022. Overall, 46.5% of the pending Condo inventory is in La’i Loa or Paradise Ridge Estates.

• After three straight months of decreased inventory, condo inventory increased by a modest 6.2%
• The largest increase in inventory occurred in the $250,000 to $499,999 price range. While this price range has a lower percentage of cash buyers than the overall condo market, the difference isn’t all that substantial.
• Active inventory increased in 6 out of 10 price ranges, decreased in three and stayed the same in one.
• Pending sales decreased 9.91% this month. As with home sales, it isn’t too uncommon to see pending sales decrease this time of year.
• The decrease in pending condo sales by price point was fairly consistent through most ranges, with the exceptions being the very lowest price range and the very highest price points in the market.
• At the community level, modest increases in inventory were common across the board. The two districts that actually saw a decrease in inventory at the community level were Ma’alaea and Kihei. Both are markets with a lot of vacation rentals. This is a market segment that is still seeing decent demand.
• Napili, Kahana and Honokowai experienced the biggest drop in pending sales. This is another big vacation rental condo market. Is the difference in activity levels a case of no clear narrative or just variability? This is something to watch with next month’s numbers.

How Quickly Are Properties Going Under Contract

One other metric we use on the blog to track market demand is how quickly properties are going under contract. Specifically, what percentage of new listings are going under contract in ten days or less. The very first time we started documenting this metric was back in February. At that point, 56% of all new listings went under contract within 10 days or less. Between September 12th and 19th, that number shrank to 34%. Between October 11th-18th, the number of properties that went under contract within 10 days or less fell further to 25.58%.

When you break it down by homes and condos, you can see that condos continue to show some measure of resilience. For condos listed between October 11th and 18th, 40% went under contract with buyers in ten days or less. That’s actually up from mid September when the number was 36.66%. For additional context, 66.67% of condos went under contract in 10 days or less between October 11th and 18th, 2021. Going back to 2019, 26% of all condos listed between October 11th and 18th went under contract in 10 days or less.

The numbers for the home market point to a more pronounced cooling. Only 13.04% of all homes listed between October 11th and 18th went under contract in 10 days or less. In mid-September, that number was 32.14%. For additional context, 54.17% of homes listed between October 11th and October 18th, 2021 went under contract in tend days or less. Going back to 2019, 9.09% of all homes listed between October 11th and October 18th, went under contract in ten days or less.

Price Reductions

One market indicator that surprised this month is the number of active listings with price reductions. Nationally, price reductions continue to rise as the real estate market slows under the weight of higher interest rates. Based on the numbers above, one might expect to see more price reductions, particularly with the home market. With fewer properties going under contract quickly and fewer properties going under contract in general, shouldn’t sellers be adjusting to the market?

As of the the 31st, 90 of 248 active home listings or 39.92% reduced their price one or more times. On September 29th, 42.41% of homes went under contract in 10 days or less. On September 2nd, 42.97% of all active listings had one or more price reduction.

On the condo front, 45 of 153 or 29.41% of active condo listings on October 31, 2022 reduced their price one or more times. That’s up from 25% on September 29th. On September 2nd, 27.84% of all active condo listings had price reductions.

Some General Thoughts on the Numbers Above and The State of The Market

It’s been an interesting last six months in the Maui Real Estate market. The first quarter of the year was largely a continuation of 2021. Strong demand combined with limited inventory to fuel strong price growth. Demand slowly started to taper in the second quarter. That said, inventory remained low. While the frenzy of the first quarter subsided, there was a balance between limited supply and just enough demand to make for a competitive market for buyers. While we were well below the frenzy of earlier in the year, homes and condos in particular sold faster and at a higher percentage of asking price than they would in a normal market.

This trend of a balanced ratio between buyers and sellers continued through the summer. Inventory actually contracted through most of the summer, but we lost FOMO (fear of missing out) buyers from the market. The lack of FOMO buyers had an impact. We started to see some downward pressure on values in limited parts of the market. With a discerning buyer pool, flawed properties that would have sold easily in the first quarter weren’t getting any love from buyers.

In my last musings, I showed stats that pointed to the relative resilience of this market despite rates well over 6%. The stats above point to a further shift downward in the market . Or at least two out of three did. The third is a reflection of Maui as a real estate market as a whole.

The increase in inventory and the decrease in pendings show a market where the balance in supply and demand is starting to shift. This is less due to an influx of new inventory as much as it is to decreased demand. When you look at the number of homes going under contract within 10 days or less, you can see where the push above 7% rates is starting to decrease the number of buyers. I am sure the more negative national real estate news is also having an impact on the buying decisions of some. Fomo has been replaced by wait and see.

The decrease in price reductions is the one anomaly in this market. As the market cools, you would expect sellers to adjust. Prior to Covid, Maui’s market dynamics were different than the typical mainland market. Sellers took time to adjust prices and days on market could really pile up before a listing was considered stale. It’s also worth remembering that this shift is pretty recent. We may need to see these conditions persist for a longer before more sellers begin to adjust prices.

The one other thing to note is that while we saw a shift in market conditions in these most recent stats, conditions remain variable. That’s pretty clear when we look at the difference between homes and condos. As of mid-October, new condo listings still went under contract much faster than they did pre-Covid. Condo inventory remains tight compared to demand and the volume of cash buyers blunts the impact of higher rates.There is variability in the home market too. The luxury market, which again includes a higher percentage of cash buyers, appears to be moving relatively well.

Looking forward, it will be interesting to see where the market goes from here. Since it’s taken me longer to write this blog post, I have the advantage of watching market conditions over the first ten days of November. While I haven’t crunched the numbers in any detail, pending sales stabilized to start the month. Yesterday’s inflation print out caused a shift in the bond market and mortgage rates to drop a half a point.Will that persist or will higher rates return? Needless to say, it’s too early tell. If anything, this points to continued weird market dynamics with a lot of variability in conditions.

A Little Maui Beauty to Brighten Your Day

It may not be Monday but…

It's Monday- we're mentally here. Via @HIOceanProject pic.twitter.com/gzQN8hpHwr

— Maui Hawaii (@Maui) November 7, 2022

Contact The Maui Real Estate Team

Variable market conditions and general market weirdness demand quality representation. Contact the Maui Real Estate Team to talk to one of our experienced agents if you are thinking of buying or selling Maui Real Estate. One of our healthy agents will be happy to learn more about your real estate needs. We look forward to being of assistance.

Maui’s Real Estate market started 2021 on a similar foot to how it ended 2020. Strong buyer demand continues to persist. I haven’t quite gotten back to weekly posting, but this week’s post should at least have us caught up. I will take a brief look at the numbers over the seven day period between December 30th and January 5th followed by a more in depth look at the very busy week between January 6th and January 12th. Keep reading for more numbers.

Buyer Activity Between December 30th and January 5th

Christmas time is traditionally thought of as the start of peak buyer season on Maui. This correlates with the start of peak visitor season. That said, the weeks right after Christmas and around the new year tend to be something of a mixed bag for Maui Real Estate. Some years, buyer activity is particularly robust. Other years it is more quiet. Despite comparatively low visitor numbers, the seven days between December 30th, 2020 and January 5th, 2021 showed solid activity.

• Maui Realtors reported 62 pending sales between the 30th and the 5th. That is 11% higher than the week prior. It is 63% more activity than the same seven day period last year.
• The 62 pending sales include 21 homes, 35 condos and 6 lots.
• The high end market remains busy with 9 properties priced $2,000,000 or above going under contract.
• Sales were solid with 65 closed transactions. This reflects the solid buyer demand from October through early December.
• New inventory was limited between the 30th and the 5th with 40 new listings. That includes only 12 homes and 1 lot.

While this week represented represented a solid start for our “typical” buyer season, the numbers for the 6th-12th of January are pretty eye popping.

New Pending Sales January 6th-12th

Maui County Realtors reported 92 new pending sales over the seven day period between January 6th and 12th. That is a 48% increase in buyer activity over both the seven days prior and the same seven day period of 2020.

Notable Numbers From the Pending Sales Between January 6th-12th

• The 92 pending sales included 35 homes, 47 condos and 10 lots.
• This is a highest number of weekly pending sales than any seven day period of 2020.
• The 47 new pending condo sales represents the highest weekly total since I began tracking this data during Covid.
• Of the 47 pending condo sales, 26 are vacation rental friendly condos. Another 6 new pending condo sales are located in resort developments that prohibit vacation rentals.
• The high end market continues to be busy with 10 new pending sales over $2,000,000. That includes 7 homes and 3 condos.
• The 10 new pending land sales ties the previous Covid era weekly high.

January 6-12 Closed Transactions

Maui Realtors reported 57 closed transactions over the seven day period between January 6th and 12th. That is 10% lower than the seven days prior. That is 68% higher than the same seven day period of 2020.

New Inventory Between January 6th and January 12th

Maui Realtors listed 74 properties over the seven day period between January 6th and 12th. That is an 85% increase in new listings over the week prior. It is 4% lower than the same seven day period of 2020.

Of the 74 new listings, 22 are single family homes. That is well below the 35 new home pending sales this week. That means a further reduction in inventory. Thus far, the new year is not bringing a respite from our home inventory shortage.

Forty new condo listings came to market between the 6th and the 12th. Normally, that would represent a pretty strong week for new inventory. That said, it is still below the 48 new pending condo sales. The condo inventory is not as limited as the single family home inventory. It is worth noting that there is also a fair amount of variability in the supply depending on geography and price point.

The land inventory is the only market segment with a net increase this week thanks to 12 new listings. That compares to 10 pendings. This modest increase is hardly anything to move the market. As a whole the inventory of lots for sale remains pretty stable.

Contact The Maui Real Estate Team

Needless to say, the numbers point to continued robust market activity. Buyer demand remains strong and supply limited. Contact The Maui Real Estate Team if you are thinking of buying or selling property. We look forward to working with you and learning more about your real estate needs.

The title of this post is something of a misnomer. I last posted an update almost a month ago. That is a reflection of current market conditions. More time showing property and less time time to blog. Being that it’s been a while, this will be a bulked up post. I wanted to give a quick update on market conditions over the period when I didn’t post. I will also have specific details on market activity for the seven day period between December 2nd and 8th.

Catching Up on The Market

With your resident blogger slacking over the last four weeks, here is a higher level overview on the market dynamics through the end of November. These are some of the key points on recent market activity.

• Pending sales activity dipped slightly for the three weeks prior to December 2nd-8th. After averaging 60 plus weekly new pending sales for 7 straight weeks, weekly new pendings over this period dipped into the high 50s. While not as robust as October, this is still pretty strong demand. A lack of inventory at lower price points isn’t helping sales numbers.
• Sales are pretty strong. In August and September, weekly sales numbers were fluctuating quite a bit. Recent numbers are more consistent. This is a reflection of the higher number of properties that went under contract earlier in the fall..
• Home inventory remains tight. There was slight growth in the number of new home listings during the last three weeks of November. That said, buyers shopping at or below the median sales price didn’t see a lot of new listings. It is also worth noting that the luxury home inventory is tightening with really limited offerings available in places like Kapalua.
• From June-September, we saw a lot of new condo inventory come to market. The increase in inventory slowed in October and it slowed even further in the last three weeks of November. There was a net decrease in inventory over that time.
• The luxury market is particularly strong. Employees are taking advantage of their employers work from anywhere edicts during Covid-19. We are seeing an influx of high income earners relocating to Maui. We are seeing market dynamics we have never seen before in the high end property market. Short days on market and multiple offer situations were unheard of until the last few months. We also are seeing more activity than usual in the $10,000,000 and above market.

Now that you are caught up a little on recent market dynamics. Let’s get to the numbers from our most recent seven day tracking period.

This Week’s New Pending Sales

Maui Realtors reported 60 new pending sales over the seven day period between December 2nd and 8th. This is a modest 3% increase over the seven days prior. It is 13% more activity than the same seven day period of 2019.

Notable Numbers from This Week’s Pending Sales

• The 60 new pending sales include 34 homes, 22 condos and 4 lots.
• This is the first time in six weeks that new home pending sales outpaced new condo pending sales. It is the most new weekly home pending sales since late September.
• This is the first time in four weeks that weekly pendings went back above the 60 mark.
• The 22 condo pending sales included 12 vacation rental condos.
• There are 6 new pending sales priced over $2,000,000 for the period between the 2nd and the 8th. They include 4 homes, 1 condo and 1 lot.

This Week’s Closed Transactions

Maui Realtors reported 54 sales during the 7 day period between December 2nd, and December 8th. That is 5% fewer sales than the seven days prior. It is 32% higher than the same seven day period of 2019. Of note, there were 7 transactions that closed for over $2,000,000. Six of the seven properties sold are located in West Maui.

Weekly New Inventory

Maui Realtors listed 66 properties between December 2nd and December 8th. That is 14% higher than the seven days prior. It is 8% higher than the same seven day period of 2019.

Of the 66 new listings, 28 are homes. That is the highest number of homes listed in a seven day period since late September. The median price of the new home listings comes in at $905,000. While that is a lower median than quite a few recent weeks, it is still a pretty high number for those looking for properties at lower price points. Due to the high number of pending sales between the 2nd and the 8th, the inventory of active home listings decreased.

Between December 2nd and December 8th, 32 new condo listings came on the market. With only 22 condos going under contract over the same period, the inventory of active condo listings increased.

Maui Realtors listed 6 lots between December 2nd and the 8th. That represents a slight increase of inventory with only 4 lots going pending over the same period.

Contact The Maui Real Estate Team

These posts speak in pretty broad brush strokes about the island’s real estate market. In reality, there is still some variability in market conditions by town, neighborhood and price point . Contact The Maui Real Estate Team to discuss market conditions in an area of the island specific to your interests. We welcome the chance to talk, zoom or e-mail and learn more about your real estate needs.

Maui Real Estate activity remained strong over the seven day period between November 4th and 10th. While much of the world seemed glued to their phone or TV watching election results, buyers continued to submit offers. Closed transactions were strong over this period, while the number of new listings coming to market remained relatively limited. Keep reading below for more details on the numbers.

This Weeks New Pending Sales

Maui Realtors reported 63 new pending sales over the seven day period between November 4th and November 10th. That is the same exact number of new pendings as the seven days prior. It is 4% less than the same seven day period of 2019.

Notable Numbers from This Week’s New Pending Sales

• This is the seventh straight week of over 60 new pending sales.
• This week’s new pendings include 23 homes, 34 condos and 6 lots.
• Of the 34 new pending condo sales, 14 are located in vacation rental friendly condos. Three more are located in developments that prohibit vacation rentals.
• Buyers are returning to some of the entry level condos in Kihei that were quiet through much of Covid-19 with the active inventory steadily decreasing in places like Kihei Villages and Southpointe at Waiakoa.
• It was another busy week in the high end real estate market. Seven properties listed for over $2,000,000 went under contract including 4 homes, 2 condos and 1 lot.

This Week’s Closed Transactions

Maui Realtors reported 67 sales over the seven day period between November 4th and November 10th. That is approximately a 16% increase over the previous seven days. It is 49% higher than the same seven day period of 2019.

How Much New Inventory Hit The Market?

Maui Realtors listed 68 properties over the seven day period between November 4th and 10th. This is 8% lower than the previous seven day period. It is 24% lower than the same seven day period of 2019.

Once again, the condo market led the way with 43 new listings. With 34 condos going pending, that means a net increase in condo inventory. The condo market is interesting right now. There is pretty good demand coming from buyers. It seems like some of the increase in demand is for entry level non-vacation rental condos as I mentioned above. It’s not clear if that is coming from a resurgence in local buyers or off island buyers at this point.

Only 21 homes came to market between the 4th and the 10th. With 23 properties going under contract, that means a net decrease in active inventory. The median price of the new home listings for this period is an astounding $2,495,000 and the average price of the new listings is $4,446,333. Needless to say, this week didn’t provide much relief for buyers hoping for an increase in lower priced listings. The home market continues to feel upward pricing pressure due to limited inventory.

It was a quiet seven days for land listings with only 4 lots coming to market between the 4th and the 10th. With 6 lots going under contract over the same period, the active inventory of lots shrunk modestly.

Contact The Maui Real Estate Team

The Maui Real Estate market didn’t just survive election week. It thrived with strong buyer demand. While overall market conditions are strong, there is still variability in the market. Contact The Maui Real Estate Team if you are considering buying or selling property on Maui. We would welcome the chance to sit down and listen to your real estate needs and provide market insights specific to your interests.

As the calendar flipped from October to November, buyer demand remained strong on Maui. The seven day period between October 28th and November 3rd is the sixth in a row with 60 or greater new pending sales. Closed transactions were solid over this period. Meanwhile, new inventory for the week increased. Keep reading below for more details.

Maui Realtors reported 63 new pending sales between October 28th and November 3rd. That is a 7% decrease from the seven days prior. It is 43% more activity than the same seven day period of 2019.

Notable Numbers from This Week’s Pending Sales

• This week’s new pending sales include 19 homes, 37 condos and 7 lots.
• Of the 37 condos, 21 are located in developments that allow vacation rentals. Three more condos are resort area condos in complexes that prohibit vacation rentals.
• Compared to recent weeks, the high end market was quieter with 3 properties with asking prices in excess of $2,000,000 going under contract.

This Week’s Closed Transactions

Maui Realtors reported 58 sales over the seven day period between October 28th and November 3rd. This is a 5% increase over the seven days prior. It is 15% less sales activity than the same seven day period of 2019.

This Week’s New Inventory

Maui Realtors brought 74 new listings to market over the seven day period between the 28th and the 3rd. That is roughly a 40% increase over the seven days prior. It is a 14% drop from the same seven day period of 2019.

There are 47 new condo listings that came to market over this period. While the 37 condos that went under contract during the week ties the Covid-19 era weekly high, the inventory increased thanks to this wave of new listings. The condo market is in something of a state of flux. For three of the last five weeks, we saw a net decrease in inventory. Stronger demand combined with fewer condos coming to market. We also saw a couple of weeks like this one when a large number of new listings hit the market.

At this point, I would say condo inventory trends are uncertain. Will we see a higher number of new listings go to market as we get closer to what is our traditional peak buyer season? What type of a peak buyer/visitor season will we have with a rapid increase of Covid cases on the mainland?

Only 23 new home listings came to market between the 28th and the 3rd. That still represents a very modest boost in inventory when compared to the 19 homes that went pending. The median price of the new listings also slipped well below $1,000,000 for the first time in a while. The median price of $744,900 is due in large part of a number of new listings in the new Upcountry subdivision Kua’aina Mauka. Regardless, the home inventory remains very limited on the island.

Only 4 new land listings came to market over this seven day period. This represents a net decrease in land inventory with 7 lots going under contract during the same period.

Contact The Maui Real Estate Team

As we get further into fall, the Maui Real Estate market continues to chug along with strong buyer demand. Limited inventory remains a big factor in the single family home market. The condo market has far greater supplies of inventory, but condo buyer activity also increased over the month. Contact the Maui Real Estate Team if you are thinking of buying or selling property on Maui. We are working hard to bring our buyers and sellers success in these dynamic market conditions. We would welcome the opportunity to earn your business and help you navigate the market.