Maui Real Estate Blog

Maui Real Estate Market Update August 8, 2020

The Maui Real Estate market concluded another pretty busy seven day period between July 29th and August 4. It was the third busiest week for new pending sales during Covid-19. Sales activity was the strongest since the end of March. While new inventory was up this week, that increase wasn’t uniform across all property types. Keep reading for more details and numbers.

This Week’s New Pending Sales

Weekly pending real estate sales in Maui County by property type during Covid-19
Weekly new pending real estate sales by property type in Maui County during the Covid-19 pandemic. This is the best indicator of current buyer demand in the Maui Real Estate market.

Maui Realtors reported 57 new pending sales over the seven day period between July 29th and August 4th. That is a 7% decrease from last week and 14% higher than the same seven day period of 2019. This is the second week in a row when pending sales this year exceeded the same seven day period of 2019. It is only the third time this has happened during Covid-19.

Notable Numbers from This Week’s Pending Sales

  • The 57 new pending sales include 21 homes, 29 condos and 7 lots.
  • Demand for homes is outpacing demand for condos through most of the pandemic. Over the last month, condo activity seems to be picking up while home sales are down a little. I can’t give a definitive reason why, but I surmise scarce home inventory could be a factor.
  • Of the 29 new pending condo sales, 19 are in complexes that allow vacation rentals.
  • Two homes listed for over $2,000,000 went under contract this week.
  • The demand for land remains consistent on a weekly basis. This week there were 7 new pending lot sales. Over the last six weeks, we are averaging 6 new pendings per week.

This Week’s Closed Real Estate Transactions

Weekly closed real estate transactions by property type during the Covid-19 Pandemic in Maui County, Hawaii
Weekly closed real estate transaction by property type in Maui County, Hawaii during Covid-19. Sales are a lagging indicator of buyer demand. Most contracts take 30-60 days to close in Hawaii. With some new developments, the contracts may date back a couple of years prior to the start of construction.

Maui Realtors reported 65 sales over the seven day period between July 29th and August 4th. That is a 59% increase over last week and down 8.5% from the same seven day period of 2019. This is the busiest week for sales since the last week of March. The higher sales numbers are reflecting the increased buyer activity in June. The numbers also received a boost from ten sales in new developments. Nine of those sales are from contracts written in 2019. One sale at Makena Golf and Beach Club goes all the way back to a contract agreed upon in 2017.

This Week’s New Inventory

A chart displaying weekly New inventory during the Covid-19 pandemic.
Weekly new inventory by property type during the Covid-19 Pandemic in Maui County, Hawaii.

Maui Realtors brought 72 properties to market in the last week. That is 26.3% more than last week. It is 9% lower than what came on the market during the same seven day period of 2019.

Once again, more new condo inventory came to market than any other property type. The 43 new condo listings exceeds the 29 that went pending in the last week. The difference between new condo inventory and condo pending sales isn’t quite as drastic as it was a month or so ago, but there is still a net increase in condo inventory.

As mentioned over the last couple of weeks, the increase in inventory isn’t occurring in all parts of the condo market. It is more pronounced in some vacation rental friendly condo developments and the entry level non-vacation rental developments in Kihei. We are starting to see the impact of increased inventory as some sellers are reducing prices below recent comparable sales.

There were 23 new home listings between July 29th and August 4th. That is slightly above the 21 homes that went pending. The inventory of homes for sale on island remains limited overall. The limited inventory supports and in some cases means upward pressure on current home values depending on location and price point.

Between July 29th and August 4th, 6 land listings came to market. That is less than the 7 lots that went under contract over the same period. Inventory in the land market grew over the first few months of the pandemic. Over the last month or more, inventory stabilized. Pricing for land across most of the island is stable to slightly up depending on location and price point.

Contact The Maui Real Estate Team

While the situation in the world remains wildly unpredictable, the national real estate market remains resilient. While that is true for Maui in general, we are seeing potential signs of market bifurcation. Some parts of the market remain strong while others are starting to soften. We continue to monitor the island’s various market segments closely. Contact the Maui Real Estate Team if you are considering buying or selling property on Maui. We welcome the chance to learn about your needs and offer our market expertise.

Pete Jalbert

Maui Real Estate Blog

Unofficial AND Official November 2011 Maui Real Estate Statistics

November came and went pretty quickly. The Maui Real Estate Team was sporting a little more facial hair for the month as Billy and I observed Movember. We also had a lot of fun attending and sitting at a booth for the EA Sport Maui Invitational. The end of November means shaving time and time for the unofficial Maui Real Estate statistics. November is typically a slower month for real estate sales as September and October are the off season for visitors and buyers on island. Was that the case this month? How did we stack up verses last month? Find out below as I present the preliminary sales data for November.

Comparison of November 2010 and November 2011 Real Estate Sales Volume for Maui County, Hawaii

Thus far, Maui Realtors have reported 73 home sales at a median price of $450,000 for November of 2011. By comparison, there were 58 sales in November of 2010 at a median of $445,000. That calculates to a 26% increase in sales volume and around a 1% increase in median price.

There have been 74 condo sales reported thus far for November 2011 at a median sales price of $261,750. The November 2010 numbers were 66 sales at a median of $349,000. That calculates to a 12% increase in volume and a 25% decrease in median price when comparing this November to last November.

There have been 8 land sales reported for November 2011 at a median price of $427,500. There was little difference with the November 2010 numbers which totaled 7 sales at a median price of $425,000.

We like to keep an eye on activity in the short sale and bank owned (REO) market as part of our unofficial statistics. There is no denying that these types of properties continue to have a significant impact on the local real estate market. Last month there were 37 REO sales and 21 short sale transactions that closed. Of the 73 homes that closed, 29 were REOs or short sales. That calculates to approximately 40% of the total home sales volume. The 74 condos that are reported to have sold included 28 short sale or REO transactions. That equates to roughly 38% of the sales volume. There was one bank owned sale among the land transactions.

Looking at all of the numbers above, there were two stats that jumped off the page. The first is the uptick in home sales. During 2011, home sales in Maui County have consistently outpaced the 2010 numbers. That being said, the 26% increase is the largest difference to date when comparing the same month in 2010 and 2011. It will be interesting to see if there is a similar difference in December and/or January. Maui is a small enough market that random fluctuations in market activity can produce “outlier” months. I would want to see at least a couple of months of heightened activity before declaring anything a trend.

The other thing that stood out to me was the big dip in median condo prices. If you have read my unofficial stats posts in the past, it is possible you may have encountered my cautionary tale on Maui medians. Shifts in median prices are not always a great indicator of changes in property values. Median pricing is determined in part by values and in part by shifts in where market activity may be occurring. While we have seen values decrease in the last year, it is safe to say that that values haven’t fallen 25% in that time. This November there were a total of eleven sales under $100,000. This higher volume of lower priced transactions was the main reason behind the drop in median.

While looking for the reasons behind the lower condo median, I found a few other numbers that I thought were worth passing along. The November median for REO condo sales is $75,250. The median for short sale condo transactions is $216,250. The median sales price for conventional (non REO or Short sale) condo closes is $348,990. While I don’t know that this low a number is typical for REO medians, I can safely say it is common for the median for REOs to be lower than the median for conventional properties. In that sense REOs are having a twofold effect on Maui median prices. It is clear that REO and short sale activity have had an impact on values in Maui. REOs can drag neighborhood values down as banks will frequently sell properties for below recent comparable sales in the area. That is one way it impacts Maui median prices. REOs attract a disproportionate number of buyers when compared to the overall inventory due to asking prices that often below recent comparable sales. It is also true that REO activity has been highest in the lowest price ranges. In that sense REOs are also contributing to the decrease in medians by increasing activity at lower prices.

For those that are interested in buying and selling Maui Real Estate, December marks a shift in seasons. The winter months are considered to be peak buying season for Maui properties. If you are a buyer or seller getting into the market what can you expect? Maui remains a buyer’s market although you will see a wide range in market conditions depending on the market segment. Buyers looking for entry level homes and condos will find a competitive market place. Well priced properties are often attracting multiple offers with sales prices above asking common. Other segments of the market have less competition, but well priced property in any market segment can attract multiple sellers. Buyers should be prepared to act quickly when the right opportunities come along. If you require financing, getting pre-qualified with a mortgage broker is an important step to take before you look at properties. Sellers fishing for high prices may best be advised to stay on the sidelines in this market. Sellers who want or need to sell should be looking closely at recent comparable sales when determining where they want to enter the market. If a seller has the means, they should also consider having their home or condo inspected prior to going on market. It is better to address potential problems with your home or condo up front than when you are under contract. If you are interested in diving into the Maui market, contact The Maui Real Estate Team for professional representation and market knowledge. We look forward to being of assistance.

Note: As I was about to publish these stats, Billy let me know that RAM beat me to the punch with their official numbers this month. Apparently while I was shaving and Christmas tree shopping, Terry at RAM was working diligently through the weekend. I figured I might as well do a two for one post and include the RAM numbers. Here is a pdf of the Official Realtors Association of Maui November 2011 Real Estate Statistics.

Pete Jalbert

Maui Real Estate Blog

“Unofficial” October 2011 Maui Real Estate Statistics

The ghosts and goblins of Halloween have come and gone, and the calendar shows November. That means it is time for the “unofficial October 2011 Maui Real Estate statistics.” If you are stumbling across our “unofficial stats” for the first time, this is an opportunity to get a sneak peak on how the Maui Real Estate market performed over the last month. We generally release the stats about a week prior to when the local Realtor association publishes their own figures. The “unofficial” stats include some additional data points on monthly sales, some context for the numbers and a few thoughts on the state of the market. After doing a little digging earlier in the day, these are the unofficial stats I came up with for October.

Comparison of Real Estate Sales Volumes for Maui County between October of 2010 and October of 2011

By my count, Maui Realtors have reported 73 home sales this October at a median price of $480,000. By comparison, there were 64 home sales reported in October of 2010 at a median price of $425,000. This years numbers show a 14% increase in volume and a 13% increase in median price over last October.

Thus far, there have been 75 condo sales reported at a median price of $310,000 for October of 2011. The October 2010 numbers were 72 sold at a median of $322,500. That translates to a 4% increase in volume and a 4% decrease in price.

The land market continues to be stagnant. There were only 7 sales reported for the month of October at a median price of $625,000. That was enough to just outpace last year’s October numbers of 6 sales at a median of $207,500.

One thing we do in the unofficial stats that they don’t do in the official stats is to keep track of bank owned (REO) and short sale transactions. While Maui hasn’t been as hard hit as some communities, REOs and shorts continue to have a significant impact on our market. There were a total of 39 REOs and 33 short sales that closed last month. Of the 73 homes sold, 37 were REOs or shorts. That is just under 51% of the total sales volume. For condos, 34 of the 75 properties sold were REOs or shorts. That constitutes 45% of the total number of condos sold.
There was one bank owned transaction among the seven land sales.

For a little context, I thought I might provide the overall REO and short sale closes for the year. There have been a total of 1843 home, condo and land sales on island through October 31. There have been 472 REO closes and 222 completed short sale transactions. That means roughly 38% of the transactions have been REOs or Shorts. For homes, 337 of the 743 total sales were REOs or Shorts. That is 45% of the total transactions. Of the 989 condo sales, 331 sales were REOs or short sales. That comes to 33% of the condo sales. That would suggest we saw a greater percentage of REO and short sale closes than usual.

Aside from the REO and Short sale activity, I can’t say that there were was much else about this month’s statistics that was out of the ordinary. The numbers follow closely with what we have seen for overall market trends during 2011. Sales volume is outpacing last year in all segments, but not by huge numbers. The bump in median home sales prices last month was the one other anomaly. That being said the change in median is likely a reflection of more high end sales than any measurable increase in home values. It is challenging to track the trajectory of values on Maui through our statistics. Smaller sample sizes mean that shifts in where market activity occurs can be just as big a driver of medians as changes in values.

Speaking of the high end market, we did see more luxury activity this October than we saw last October. There were seven home sales over $2,000,000 this month compared to only two sales in October of 2010. For luxury condos, I counted five sales over $1,500,000. This outpaced the October 2010 numbers of three sales. This too follows an overall trend for the year as 2011 has proven to be a better year for luxury home and condo sales than 2010.

For buyers and sellers of Maui Real Estate, market conditions remain similar to what he have seen for the rest of the year. Buyers are going to continue to find opportunities to purchase properties for prices significantly below the peak of the market. That being said, buyers may find inventory tight in some market segments. Lower priced homes and condos can be particularly competitive. Buyers may have to exercise patience to find the best values. When opportunities do come on the market, buyers would be advised to act quickly and put their best foot forward as the best deals often attract multiple offers. Sellers are going to continue to find tough competition from the REO and short sale market. Those that need to sell quickly are served well by paying close attention to recent comparable sales and pricing close to or in some cases below those sales. Contact the Maui Real Estate Team with questions on the statistics or for assistance buying or selling Maui Real Estate.

Pete Jalbert