Maui Real Estate Blog

Maui Vacation Rental Condos September 2021 Market Update

I challenge you to find a segment of the Maui Real Estate market that experienced a more drastic reversal of fortune over the last 12 months than vacation rental condos. With tourism shut down starting in April of 2020, demand for vacation rental condos shrank rapidly over the spring and summer. With no rental revenue to offset costs and economic forecasts calling for a slow rebound in tourism, many owners opted to sell. Inventory rose steadily through spring, summer and early fall. On October 15, 2020, the state rescinded the mandatory quarantine rules for incoming travelers. Residents and vacationers who tested negative could avoid the Covid vaccine. This marked the first step in a gradual shift in the market.

For the first couple of months after tourism reopened, visitor numbers were a fraction of what the island experienced pre-Covid. That said, buyer demand ticked upwards and supply slowly ticked downwards as soon as visitors returned. With the start of the new year, a significant shift occurred. Visitor numbers recovered far faster than anticipated. Apparently, many of the visitors were vacation rental condo buyers.

Soaring Sales and Shrinking Inventory

Pending condo sales on Maui since January 2020. The collapse in demand right after the start of the pandemic is clear as is the slow recovery. In January 2021, the market hits another gear entirely. This chart includes both vacation rental and non-vacation rental condos.
Condo inventory on Maui since January 2020. This chart includes both vacation rental and non-vacation rental condos.

They say a picture is worth a thousand words. These two pictures tell the tale of the Maui Vacation Rental condo market pretty succinctly. Buyers returned to the market in big numbers in early 2021. With a pretty healthy inventory of condos to choose from, the volume of transactions grew quickly. Buyer activity reached its peak in March with 290 condos under contract. Volume started to dip in April. While there was a minor uptick in May, the number of properties under contract continues to fall.

The healthy inventory of condos in January and February quickly gave way to scarcity. A ravenous buyer pool quickly chewed through much of the inventory. Anecdotally, I started to get a lot of e-mails from other Realtors beating the bushes searching for unlisted properties in late March and April. The inventory continued to fall through late Spring and the summer. The contrast between this summer and last summer is pretty stark. While many popular condo complexes had double digit inventory in the summer of 2020, most currently have a handful of active listings at most. The overall condo inventory is less than 25% of last summer.

Shrinking inventory is in turn impacting the volume of properties under contract. There are far less active condos for sale now than there were that went under contract in March back in the peak of the market. It is difficult to compare demand now compared to demand back in the late winter and early spring. Anecdotally, it feels like demand is down some. That said, with such limited supply market dynamics feel similar to the spring when demand and supply were both higher. Plain and simple, it is a strong sellers market.

Strong Demand Plus Declining Inventory Equals Rising Prices

With strong demand and dwindling supply, it’s not surprising to see the trajectory of prices. While median prices on island tend to fluctuate based in part on the composition of condos sold within a given month, there are clear signs of price increases. The median price of the vacation rental condos sold in August of 2020 was $600,000. The median price of vacation rental condos sold in August of 2021 is $747,500.

Other Notable Numbers From the 2021 Maui Vacation Rental Condo Market

  • There were 880 vacation rental condos sold on Maui between January 1, 2021 and August 25th, 2021. That is a 221% increase in activity compared to the same period of 2020.
  • The average price of condos sold between January 1, 2021 and August 25th is $1,079,000 and the median price is $715,000.
  • The lowest priced vacation rental condo to close sold for $110,000. That was a leasehold, oceanfront, one bedroom at Maui Sands.
  • The highest priced transaction for the year to date closed for $14,250,000. This was for a 3 bedroom, 3.5 bathroom, direct beachfront unit at Wailea Beach Villas.
  • There was a lot of activity in the higher price ranges of the vacation rental condo market. The Wailea Beach Villas sale was one of two transactions that closed over $10,000,000. It was one of nineteen sales over $5,000,000 and one of ninety-two sales over $2,000,000.
  • Kihei was the busiest market with 278 closes.
  • Kapalua saw the biggest increase in activity of any area of the island compared to the same period of 2020. The 80 closes as of August 25th are a 615% increase in activity over the same period of 2020.
  • Kamaole Sands was the busiest individual condo development for sales. There were 33 condos sold for the year as of August 25th. Honua Kai was the next busiest with 31 condos sold.

Market Outlook for Buyers

As mentioned above, scarcity is a challenge for buyers in this market. The summer did not bring any inventory relief. July and August had the fewest new condo listings since April of 2020. It will be interesting to see if we see more inventory in the fall. Mainland markets are seeing a slow increase in inventory. Is our lack of inventory a reflection of different dynamics in play on Maui, or are we just seeing some lag before we catch up to trends on the mainland?

Might we also see a decrease in demand? A report from Redfin in June indicated demand for second and vacation homes started to shrink in the spring. They cited a variety of factors including decreased affordability and tighter underwriting standards. They also indicated that many that intended to buy a second home already made their purchase.

I can see where affordability could start to impact demand on Maui. Price increases over the year are significant. Those looking for strong cap rates are likely to be discouraged. While rents are up some this year thanks to strong demand, they aren’t quite keeping pace with appreciation. Buyers more focused on cap rate rather than personal use of the condos will be less likely to buy in the current market.

Last but not least, the adverse impact of Covid is not over. Cases are up sharply in Hawaii and hospitals are strained. Some tourists are heeding the governor’s calls to delay visits due to the recent surge. Hotels are reporting cancellations over the next two months. Will that dampen demand at all?

Market Outlook for Sellers

The market outlook for sellers is pretty clear. There is still good to strong demand and inventory is limited. Prices are up. If you aren’t using your condo or you are just looking to cash out, this is a good time to sell. It is worth noting that while the market is supporting strong appreciation, it is still quite possible to overprice your property. Approximately 53% of the current active listings are on the market for over 30 days. If you want to sell quickly, it still makes sense to look at recent comparable sales when formulating a pricing strategy.

Contact The Maui Real Estate Team

Contact The Maui Real Estate Team if you are interested in buying or selling a vacation rental condo on Maui. For buyers, we would be happy to review current inventory options in your price range and keep our ears open for unlisted properties. For sellers, we would welcome the opportunity to give you a free broker’s price opinion on your condo. We look forward to being of assistance.

Pete Jalbert

Maui Real Estate Blog

August 2021 Haiku Real Estate Market Update

This is the third installment of our summer community real estate market updates. Today’s post focuses on the North Shore community of Haiku. It follows recent posts on Spreckelsville and Paia and Kuau. Haiku spans a large geographic area along the north side of Haleakala. It ranges in elevation from sea level to about 1,500 feet in elevation. Located on the windward side of the island, Haiku’s landscape is more lush due to more frequent trade showers.

The area was a focal point of agriculture pre-western contact. In the more recent historical period, it was an area of plantation agriculture with both pineapple and sugar cane serving as the primary crops. The agricultural legacy is evident in the zoning. The bulk of the properties in the area are zoned agricultural. Most agricultural lots include 2 or more acres. Acreage is one of the biggest appeals to this area of Maui. There is still smaller scale farming in the area. Many homeowners have orchards and/or gardens. Other draws to Haiku include the area’s natural beauty, access to nearby water sports and proximity to a variety of schools.

Notable Numbers from This Year’s Haiku Home Sales

  • Maui Realtors reported 66 sales in Haiku for the year to date as of August 17th. That is a 27% increase over the same period of 2020.
  • The median sales price of the homes sold is $1,177,500. The average sales price is $1,440,507. This is also up significantly over the same period of last year when the median and average were $870,000 and $1,104,884 respectively.
  • The lowest priced property sale for the year to date closed for $600,000. This 977 square foot house and cottage on a 12,284 square foot lot sold prior to going on the MLS. I venture that it likely would have sold above this price if it went to market.
  • The highest priced sale closed for $6,650,000. That property includes a 4,500 square foot home with a pool and a large barn on 38.91 acres.
  • That sale is one of nine properties to close over $2,000,000 and one of four that closed over $3,000,000.
  • There are currently 16 homes under contract in Haiku with 4 of those listed for more than $2,000,000.
Horses in pasture in front of the barn
A 39 acre property in Haiku represented by the Maui Real Estate Team, Inc. It closed in late July for $3,450,000. The property includes a large barn, extensive pasture area for horses and a beautiful cottage.

Thoughts on the Haiku Market for the Year to Date

Like the rest of the island, the Haiku area is seeing strong demand and limited supply. This is reflected in both the higher than average sales activity, and the increase in prices. Sales volume for this period is higher than not just the same period of 2020, but also the same period of any of the last five years. Both median and average price increased significantly over 2020. The increase in average price reflects not just rising prices, but also additional activity in the higher price points of the Haiku market. This is part of a two year trend for higher priced sales in Haiku. There are 21 homes that closed for $2,000,000 or more in Haiku since January 1, 2020. That is 27% of the sales for $2,000,000 or more in the last 20 years!

The Outlook for Haiku Homes for the Rest of 2021

While buyer demand remains strong, inventory is incredibly limited in Haiku. As of this moment, there are only 17 active home listings. That’s a fraction of what we typically see in Haiku. Inventory is particularly scarce below $1,000,000 with only 4 active listings. By comparison, there are 7 listings over $2,000,000. While some markets on the continent are seeing inventory rebound, we aren’t seeing it in Haiku. Sales volume for the rest of the year will be hard pressed to keep pace with the first seven plus months of 2021 unless more listings come to market. It will also likely mean continued upward pricing pressure.

The Haiku Land Market

Haiku sees more land sales than most parts of the island. It typically has more land inventory available. Haiku Town Acres and Kauhikoa Farms are two newer subdivisions created in the last five years that drove recent activity. The rest of the inventory consists of resales from older subdivisions or lots created from smaller scale subdivisions. CPR lots are increasingly common.

Notable numbers from the Haiku Land Sales in 2021

  • Maui Realtors reported 29 lots sold for the year as of August 17th. The median price of the lots sold is $585,000. The average price of the lots sold is $813,190.
  • The highest price lot closed for $2,499,000. It is a 20.5 acre oceanfront lot located to the East of the Peahi surf break.
  • The 20.5 acre oceanfront parcel was the only sale over $2,000,000, but it was one of eight sales for $1,000,000 or more.
  • The eight sales equals the total for all of 2020. The last two years are now tied for the busiest year ever for $1,000,000 or more land sales in Haiku.

Haiku Land Sale Overview and Outlook

Strong demand helped push pricing up in the Haiku land market in 2021. As the overall real estate market on Maui hit another gear in the first quarter of 2021, buyers quickly snatched up much of the remaining land inventory in Haiku. I remember clearly in January and February when a number of the properties that sat on the market in the fall went under contract in close succession. Replacement inventory has yet to come to market. As it stands, there are only 9 active land listings in Haiku. The lowest priced listing is currently $1,300,00! When lower priced lots come on the market, it feels more like an auction than a conventional real estate listing.

Barring a substantive increase in inventory, I would surmise that we will see really limited sales volume and continued price appreciation. That said, land pricing does not operate in a vacuum. Construction costs are high due to increased material and labor costs. If the cost to build plus the cost of land far exceeds the price of existing homes, buyers won’t support the higher land prices. Land buyers should evaluate potential construction costs and create an overall budget prior to hopping into a frothy land market.

Contact The Maui Real Estate Team

The Maui Real Estate Team keeps close tabs on the Haiku market. A number of our office’s agent call the community home. Contact The Maui Real Estate Team if you are looking for property in Haiku. We would welcome the chance to learn more about your real estate interests and needs. You can view active Haiku home listings and Haiku land listings on MauiRealEstate.com.

Pete Jalbert

Maui Real Estate Blog

June 2021 Maui Real Estate Market Update

When the pandemic started, we provided weekly updates on market conditions on Maui. There were a lot of unknowns at that point and plenty free time to put together statistics. As market conditions improved from the doldrums of the spring and summer of 2020, carving out time became harder. By the middle of fall, weekly updates slipped to once every few weeks. I last posted a market update in mid-January. The frequency of the posts inversely correlates with market conditions. A quieter market meant more frequent posts, while the dearth of posts over the last 6 months is a testament to the busiest period of real estate transactions seen on Maui to date.

I had a little bit of time to catch my breath this week so I wanted to catch you up on market conditions through the first five months of 2021. While I am loathe to enter the world of prognostication after the surprising turn in market conditions last year, I will also provide a few thoughts on the outlook for the next few months.

Booming Demand

The Covid-19 Pandemic created a real estate boom in a number of markets throughout the mainland United States as early as late Spring of 2020. Due to the travel restrictions to Hawaii, the Maui market remained comparatively quiet. We saw a modest uptick in activity in June after stay at home orders were lifted. As the year progressed, momentum increased. The resumption of tourism in October caused another uptick in demand. The Maui market hit a whole new gear in 2021.

This chart compares the number of homes sold in Maui County during the first five months of 2021 and the first five months of 2020.
Monthly Homes Sold in Maui County, Hawaii in the first five months of 2020 and 2021

Maui Realtors reported 598 homes sold during the first five months of the 2021. That calculates to roughly a 57% increase over the 389 homes sold during the same period of 2020. The difference in sales between 2021 and 2020 increased in part due to growing demand, but also due to the fact that Covid-19 impacted April and May 2020 sales volumes . The monthly difference in sales volume started at 18.8%in January and peaked at 290% in May. To be clear, the sales volumes for 2021 don’t look strong just due to weaker 2020 numbers. By comparison, home sales for the first five months of 2021 were 33.4% stronger than the same period of 2019.

A comparison of monthly Maui condo sales volumes between the first five months of 2020 and 2021
A comparison of monthly condo sales volumes in Maui County Hawaii during the first five months of 2020 and 2021.

Maui Realtors reported an impressive 1,019 condos sold over the first five months of 2021. That represents an 81% increase in sales volume over the 564 condos sold during the same period of 2020. As with the single family home market, the difference in sales between the two years is due in part to depressed sales in April and May of 2020, and a big surge in activity in 2021. This is evident in the monthly numbers. The January 2021 sales volume actually fell below January 2020 by 10%. Sales volume picked up dramatically in February of 2021 as evidenced by the 24.6% increase over February 2020. By May, the difference in monthly sales volume between 2021 and 2020 rocketed up to 448%. It is notable that the months of March through May were the first ever months where condo sales volumes exceeded 200 closed transactions on Maui.

Shrinking Inventory

While the number of properties going under contract soared, the number of new listings coming to market remained limited. The result was rapidly shrinking inventory for the first five months of the year.

This chart shows the monthly inventory of homes and condos for sale in Maui County. The chart starts right before the start of the pandemic through May.
The monthly inventory of active homes and condos for sale in Maui County at the end of the month. This chart starts in February 2020 right before the start of Covid and runs until May of 2021.

According to the Realtors Association of Maui (RAM), there were only 203 active home listings at the very end of May. That is 37% below the 318 active home listings at the end of December. It is 54% lower than at the end of February 2020 right before covid impacted the market. The home inventory declined steadily throughout the pandemic.

As of the end of May, RAM reported 224 active condo listings. This is 68% below the number of active condo listings at the end of December. It is 58% below the number of condos for sale listed right before the start of Covid at the end of February of 2020. The decline in condo inventory hasn’t been quite as linear as the decrease in home inventory. Active condo inventory grew every month between March of 2020 and December of 2020. That makes the decrease in inventory in 2021 all that much more dramatic. It is also worth noting that the home and condo inventory weren’t exactly robust going into the start of Covid. Pre-Covid, there was less than 6 months of homes and condo inventory.

I would surmise that some of the recent decreases in sales volume may be due in part to the lack of inventory. Buyers are looking, but there just isn’t much out there to buy. Well priced properties are still seeing a frenzy of activity.

Rising Prices

Strong demand and shrinking inventory resulted in a lot of upward price pressure over the first five months of 2021. This is evident as Maui’s median sales priced crossed the $1,000,000 barrier for the month of May.

If you are long time readers of this blog, you may know that I am somewhat wary of using median sales price as a means of tracking changes in property values. The change in median price is based in part on change in value and also in part due to the composition of sales. A higher number of high end sales in anyone month can help push median sales price upwards. There is no doubt that this is a factor in the current market. We are seeing a much higher number of high end properties closing in this market. That said, it is also clear that prices are increasing.

Determining an exact number for the change in values is difficult. The Maui market is pretty heterogeneous in terms of structure size, lot size, location, view and finishing. There is also some variability in how much values are increasing in different geographies and price points. Contact us to discuss changes in value specific to areas of the market of interest to you.

What to Expect Going Forward?

I gave up prognosticating on this market earlier in the pandemic. If you told me market conditions would be what they are now back in April of 2020, let’s just say I would be skeptical. With that in mind, there are some things that I will be watching for over the months ahead.

Inventory The number of active listings tumbled throughout the spring on Maui. The limited inventory means a continued seller’s market. That said, we are starting to see increasing inventory on mainland markets. According to Axios Research, the inventory of single family homes nationally is up 7% since April 30th. Will our market start to see the increase in inventory? We seemed to lag behind the mainland market in terms of market trends throughout Covid-19 due to our inaccessibility. Will that continue?

Overly Ambitious Sellers As mentioned above, we are currently seeing strong appreciation in the market. Over the last month, I have started to see some pretty ambitious list prices with prices well above recent comparable sales. Will buyers be willing to absorb these higher prices due to lack of inventory? If not, will sellers be willing to adjust their pricing downward. Thus far, I am seeing a little bit of both. Some sellers are adjusting quickly to negative market feedback. Others have the means to wait and see if the market will come to them.

Interest Rates Global supply change disruptions due to Covid are causing inflationary pressure. There is a lot of argument amongst people a lot smarter than me as to how long this will continue. Inflation can bring rising interest rates. Thus far, the Federal Reserve is not inclined to raise rates. They view the inflation as temporary. If inflation were to be more prolonged, pressure to react may increase.

Other Impacts on Buyer Demand Rising interest rates are just one factor that could impact buyer demand. It’s pretty clear that a significant portion of buyers over the last year came from off island. Maui became a Zoom Town so to speak. With rising levels of the population fully vaccinated, some businesses are calling their employees back to the office. What does that mean for demand going forward? Could that also impact supply if some of those called back to the office decide to sell their homes?

Covid also brought a surge of second home buying. There are some signs that this may be cooling in other markets around the country. Redfin released a report this week that showed mortgage applications for second homes are decreasing. They attributed this in part due to tightened rules for second home lending. They also attribute decreased demand due to rising home prices. Some second home buyers are feeling priced out after recent price increases.

These affordability issues already knocked a lot of local home buyers out of the market. Some are priced out. Others are struggling to compete with the cash or higher down payments from affluent buyers relocating from the Continental United States.

Contact The Maui Real Estate Team

While I am again tentative to offer any sort of forecast, I would surmise that we won’t see any seismic shifts in market conditions anytime soon. Any relief in supply is likely to be gradual while the recovering economy should sustain some demand. Buyers looking in this market are likely to find that well priced properties generate a lot of interest. Bidding wars are common at all price points. The competitions can be particularly fierce at and below the $1,000,000 mark. Sellers will find favorable market conditions. With such limited inventory, it is hard to be overlooked by the market. This means that sellers will get market feedback on their pricing pretty quickly. Contact The Maui Real Estate Team if you are considering buying or selling property on Maui. We would welcome the opportunity to provide a free consultation.

Pete Jalbert

Maui Real Estate Blog

January 16, 2021 Maui Real Estate Market Update

Maui’s Real Estate market started 2021 on a similar foot to how it ended 2020. Strong buyer demand continues to persist. I haven’t quite gotten back to weekly posting, but this week’s post should at least have us caught up. I will take a brief look at the numbers over the seven day period between December 30th and January 5th followed by a more in depth look at the very busy week between January 6th and January 12th. Keep reading for more numbers.

Buyer Activity Between December 30th and January 5th

Christmas time is traditionally thought of as the start of peak buyer season on Maui. This correlates with the start of peak visitor season. That said, the weeks right after Christmas and around the new year tend to be something of a mixed bag for Maui Real Estate. Some years, buyer activity is particularly robust. Other years it is more quiet. Despite comparatively low visitor numbers, the seven days between December 30th, 2020 and January 5th, 2021 showed solid activity.

  • Maui Realtors reported 62 pending sales between the 30th and the 5th. That is 11% higher than the week prior. It is 63% more activity than the same seven day period last year.
  • The 62 pending sales include 21 homes, 35 condos and 6 lots.
  • The high end market remains busy with 9 properties priced $2,000,000 or above going under contract.
  • Sales were solid with 65 closed transactions. This reflects the solid buyer demand from October through early December.
  • New inventory was limited between the 30th and the 5th with 40 new listings. That includes only 12 homes and 1 lot.

While this week represented represented a solid start for our “typical” buyer season, the numbers for the 6th-12th of January are pretty eye popping.

New Pending Sales January 6th-12th

Weekly new pending sales in Maui County During the Covid-19 Pandemic. This chart runs from late February up until January 12th.
Weekly new pending sales in Maui County, Hawaii by property type. New pending sales are the best indicator of current buyer demand in the market.

Maui County Realtors reported 92 new pending sales over the seven day period between January 6th and 12th. That is a 48% increase in buyer activity over both the seven days prior and the same seven day period of 2020.

Notable Numbers From the Pending Sales Between January 6th-12th

  • The 92 pending sales included 35 homes, 47 condos and 10 lots.
  • This is a highest number of weekly pending sales than any seven day period of 2020.
  • The 47 new pending condo sales represents the highest weekly total since I began tracking this data during Covid.
  • Of the 47 pending condo sales, 26 are vacation rental friendly condos. Another 6 new pending condo sales are located in resort developments that prohibit vacation rentals.
  • The high end market continues to be busy with 10 new pending sales over $2,000,000. That includes 7 homes and 3 condos.
  • The 10 new pending land sales ties the previous Covid era weekly high.

January 6-12 Closed Transactions

Weekly closed transactions by property type in Maui County. This chart shows the time period from late February 2020 through January 12th 2021.
Weekly Closed Transactions by Property Type in Maui County, Hawaii during the “Covid era.”

Maui Realtors reported 57 closed transactions over the seven day period between January 6th and 12th. That is 10% lower than the seven days prior. That is 68% higher than the same seven day period of 2020.

New Inventory Between January 6th and January 12th

This chart shows weekly new inventory by property type in Maui County, Hawaii over the period between late February of 2020 and early January of 2021
Weekly new inventory by property type in Maui County Hawaii during “the Covid era.”

Maui Realtors listed 74 properties over the seven day period between January 6th and 12th. That is an 85% increase in new listings over the week prior. It is 4% lower than the same seven day period of 2020.

Of the 74 new listings, 22 are single family homes. That is well below the 35 new home pending sales this week. That means a further reduction in inventory. Thus far, the new year is not bringing a respite from our home inventory shortage.

Forty new condo listings came to market between the 6th and the 12th. Normally, that would represent a pretty strong week for new inventory. That said, it is still below the 48 new pending condo sales. The condo inventory is not as limited as the single family home inventory. It is worth noting that there is also a fair amount of variability in the supply depending on geography and price point.

The land inventory is the only market segment with a net increase this week thanks to 12 new listings. That compares to 10 pendings. This modest increase is hardly anything to move the market. As a whole the inventory of lots for sale remains pretty stable.

Contact The Maui Real Estate Team

Needless to say, the numbers point to continued robust market activity. Buyer demand remains strong and supply limited. Contact The Maui Real Estate Team if you are thinking of buying or selling property. We look forward to working with you and learning more about your real estate needs.

Pete Jalbert

Maui Real Estate Blog

January 7th, 2021, Semi-Weekly, Occasional Maui Real Estate Update

I haven’t quite reclaimed my weekly posting mojo hence the title of this post. That said, I wanted to look at sales activity for the seven day period between December 23rd and 29th. I also wanted to highlight some of the numbers from December 16th-22nd. That was a pretty extraordinary week for real estate activity on Maui. Keep reading for notable numbers from those 14 days.

A Quick Recap of December 16th-22nd

While it may not be getting its own post, this week can’t go without mention. It was far and away the busiest seven day period of 2020. That includes the pre-pandemic market. While it isn’t unusual for us to be outperforming pre-pandemic numbers, the weeks right before Christmas don’t typically see robust market activity. The winter time off island buyers tend to become more active right after Christmas. On island buyers tend to be more focused on the holidays than home buying.

Here are some notable numbers from the 16th-22nd.

  • There were 86 new pending sales. That is 21% higher than the previous high for 2020. It is 56% more activity than the same seven day period of 2019.
  • The home market was a big driver for this robust week of activity. The 40 new weekly pending home sales is a high for the year.
  • Heightened activity at higher price points also played a role. An impressive 11 properties went pending listed over $2,000,000 including 5 over $6,000,000. Of note, 2 homes subsequently fell out of contract.
  • The 16th-22nd also saw a lot of high end sales with 9 transactions closing for more than $2,000,000. That includes a $19,000,000 oceanfront sale in Makena. That comes on the heels of an oceanfront estate in Kapalua that Closed for $24,000,000 the week prior. That sale was the highest ever in West Maui.

Needless to say, the 16th-22nd was an extremely busy week for buyers. Now on to our latest seven day tracking period.

New Pending Sales for December 23-29th

This chart shows weekly new pending sales by property type in Maui County. The chart starts in late February and runs through late December.
Weekly new pending sales by property type in Maui County, Hawaii. New Pending sales are the best indication of current buyer demand.

Maui Realtors reported 56 new pending sales over the seven day period between December 23rd and December 29th. This is a 35% drop in activity from the the extremely busy seven days prior. That said, it is 65% higher than the same seven day period of 2019. It is worth remembering that this seven day period includes Christmas. The drastic increase over last year provides some context for the high demand this year.

Notable Numbers From The Pending Sales Between December 22nd-28th.

  • The 56 pending sales include 23 homes, 30 condos and 3 lots.
  • The 30 condo sales include 16 vacation rentals . There are 4 additional condos located in resort areas that prohibit vacation rentals.
  • Seven properties listed for more than $2,000,000 went under contract. They include 5 homes and 2 condos.

Closed Transactions Between December 22nd and 28th

This chart shows weekly closed transactions in Maui County by property type. This chart starts in late February and runs all the way through late December.
Weekly Sales by Property Type in Maui County, Hawaii. Closed Transactions are a lagging indicator of buyer demand.

Maui Realtors reported 55 sales over the seven day period between December 23rd and December 29th. This is 21% fewer transactions than the seven days prior. It is 62% higher than the same seven day period of 2019. As with the pending sales, we would expect lower numbers compared to the week prior. There is one less day for recorded sales, and some sellers and buyers would want to avoid closing right around Christmas. That said, the 2019 numbers provide some context as to how busy things were comparatively.

New Listings December 23rd-29th

Weekly new inventory by property type in Maui County. This chart shows the period between late February and late December.

Maui Realtors listed 40 properties in the seven day period between December 23rd and 29th. That is 34% fewer properties than the seven days prior. It is 5% more new listings than the same seven day period of 2019. It is not a big surprise that this is a quieter week for new inventory. Listings that come to market right around the holiday may not get as much visibility with buyers.

Of the 40 new listings, only 12 are homes. This is quite a bit less than the 20 that went under contract. Scarcity of inventory remains a big factor in the single family home market as we enter the new year.

The new listings between the 23rd and 29th included 27 condos. This is also below the 30 condos that went under contract. While there is more condo inventory than home inventory available, buyers may find limited inventory depending on where they are searching.

There was just 1 new land listing to hit the market between the 23rd and the 29th. The land market saw a slight decrease in inventory over December. While there is variability based on geography, the land market also suffers to an extent from a lack of options.

Contact The Maui Real Estate Team

As we enter the new year, buyer activity remains strong and supply limited. At the same time, there seems to be growing instability in the world with Covid numbers continuing to rise and significant political unrest. Will that impact the market? Thus far, the Maui market remains resilient. If anything there is an argument that the relative safe haven of Maui may be appealing to buyers. We continue to work hard for buyers and sellers in these challenging times. Contact The Maui Real Estate Team if you are looking to buy or sell property on Maui. We look forward to talking to you and learning more about your real estate needs.

Pete Jalbert

Maui Real Estate Blog

Weekly Maui Real Estate Update December 16th

The title of this post is something of a misnomer. I last posted an update almost a month ago. That is a reflection of current market conditions. More time showing property and less time time to blog. Being that it’s been a while, this will be a bulked up post. I wanted to give a quick update on market conditions over the period when I didn’t post. I will also have specific details on market activity for the seven day period between December 2nd and 8th.

Catching Up on The Market

With your resident blogger slacking over the last four weeks, here is a higher level overview on the market dynamics through the end of November. These are some of the key points on recent market activity.

  • Pending sales activity dipped slightly for the three weeks prior to December 2nd-8th. After averaging 60 plus weekly new pending sales for 7 straight weeks, weekly new pendings over this period dipped into the high 50s. While not as robust as October, this is still pretty strong demand. A lack of inventory at lower price points isn’t helping sales numbers.
  • Sales are pretty strong. In August and September, weekly sales numbers were fluctuating quite a bit. Recent numbers are more consistent. This is a reflection of the higher number of properties that went under contract earlier in the fall..
  • Home inventory remains tight. There was slight growth in the number of new home listings during the last three weeks of November. That said, buyers shopping at or below the median sales price didn’t see a lot of new listings. It is also worth noting that the luxury home inventory is tightening with really limited offerings available in places like Kapalua.
  • From June-September, we saw a lot of new condo inventory come to market. The increase in inventory slowed in October and it slowed even further in the last three weeks of November. There was a net decrease in inventory over that time.
  • The luxury market is particularly strong. Employees are taking advantage of their employers work from anywhere edicts during Covid-19. We are seeing an influx of high income earners relocating to Maui. We are seeing market dynamics we have never seen before in the high end property market. Short days on market and multiple offer situations were unheard of until the last few months. We also are seeing more activity than usual in the $10,000,000 and above market.

Now that you are caught up a little on recent market dynamics. Let’s get to the numbers from our most recent seven day tracking period.

This Week’s New Pending Sales

This image shows weekly new pending sales by property type in Maui County starting in late February and running into early December.
Weekly New Pending Sales by property type in Maui County during the Covid-19 Pandemic. New pending sales are the best indicator of current market demand.

Maui Realtors reported 60 new pending sales over the seven day period between December 2nd and 8th. This is a modest 3% increase over the seven days prior. It is 13% more activity than the same seven day period of 2019.

Notable Numbers from This Week’s Pending Sales

  • The 60 new pending sales include 34 homes, 22 condos and 4 lots.
  • This is the first time in six weeks that new home pending sales outpaced new condo pending sales. It is the most new weekly home pending sales since late September.
  • This is the first time in four weeks that weekly pendings went back above the 60 mark.
  • The 22 condo pending sales included 12 vacation rental condos.
  • There are 6 new pending sales priced over $2,000,000 for the period between the 2nd and the 8th. They include 4 homes, 1 condo and 1 lot.

This Week’s Closed Transactions

This chart shows weekly closed transactions by property type in Maui County. The chart runs from late February up until the first full week of December. The week runs from Wednesday to Tuesday on this chart. Sales are a lagging indicator of market demand.
Weekly Closed Transactions by Property Type in Maui County, Hawaii. Sales are a lagging indicator of buyer demand.

Maui Realtors reported 54 sales during the 7 day period between December 2nd, and December 8th. That is 5% fewer sales than the seven days prior. It is 32% higher than the same seven day period of 2019. Of note, there were 7 transactions that closed for over $2,000,000. Six of the seven properties sold are located in West Maui.

Weekly New Inventory

This chart shows weekly new inventory by property type in Maui County. The chart runs from late February up until the first full week of December.
Weekly new inventory by property type in Maui County, Hawaii.

Maui Realtors listed 66 properties between December 2nd and December 8th. That is 14% higher than the seven days prior. It is 8% higher than the same seven day period of 2019.

Of the 66 new listings, 28 are homes. That is the highest number of homes listed in a seven day period since late September. The median price of the new home listings comes in at $905,000. While that is a lower median than quite a few recent weeks, it is still a pretty high number for those looking for properties at lower price points. Due to the high number of pending sales between the 2nd and the 8th, the inventory of active home listings decreased.

Between December 2nd and December 8th, 32 new condo listings came on the market. With only 22 condos going under contract over the same period, the inventory of active condo listings increased.

Maui Realtors listed 6 lots between December 2nd and the 8th. That represents a slight increase of inventory with only 4 lots going pending over the same period.

Contact The Maui Real Estate Team

These posts speak in pretty broad brush strokes about the island’s real estate market. In reality, there is still some variability in market conditions by town, neighborhood and price point . Contact The Maui Real Estate Team to discuss market conditions in an area of the island specific to your interests. We welcome the chance to talk, zoom or e-mail and learn more about your real estate needs.

Pete Jalbert