Maui Real Estate Blog

January 7th, 2021, Semi-Weekly, Occasional Maui Real Estate Update

I haven’t quite reclaimed my weekly posting mojo hence the title of this post. That said, I wanted to look at sales activity for the seven day period between December 23rd and 29th. I also wanted to highlight some of the numbers from December 16th-22nd. That was a pretty extraordinary week for real estate activity on Maui. Keep reading for notable numbers from those 14 days.

A Quick Recap of December 16th-22nd

While it may not be getting its own post, this week can’t go without mention. It was far and away the busiest seven day period of 2020. That includes the pre-pandemic market. While it isn’t unusual for us to be outperforming pre-pandemic numbers, the weeks right before Christmas don’t typically see robust market activity. The winter time off island buyers tend to become more active right after Christmas. On island buyers tend to be more focused on the holidays than home buying.

Here are some notable numbers from the 16th-22nd.

  • There were 86 new pending sales. That is 21% higher than the previous high for 2020. It is 56% more activity than the same seven day period of 2019.
  • The home market was a big driver for this robust week of activity. The 40 new weekly pending home sales is a high for the year.
  • Heightened activity at higher price points also played a role. An impressive 11 properties went pending listed over $2,000,000 including 5 over $6,000,000. Of note, 2 homes subsequently fell out of contract.
  • The 16th-22nd also saw a lot of high end sales with 9 transactions closing for more than $2,000,000. That includes a $19,000,000 oceanfront sale in Makena. That comes on the heels of an oceanfront estate in Kapalua that Closed for $24,000,000 the week prior. That sale was the highest ever in West Maui.

Needless to say, the 16th-22nd was an extremely busy week for buyers. Now on to our latest seven day tracking period.

New Pending Sales for December 23-29th

This chart shows weekly new pending sales by property type in Maui County. The chart starts in late February and runs through late December.
Weekly new pending sales by property type in Maui County, Hawaii. New Pending sales are the best indication of current buyer demand.

Maui Realtors reported 56 new pending sales over the seven day period between December 23rd and December 29th. This is a 35% drop in activity from the the extremely busy seven days prior. That said, it is 65% higher than the same seven day period of 2019. It is worth remembering that this seven day period includes Christmas. The drastic increase over last year provides some context for the high demand this year.

Notable Numbers From The Pending Sales Between December 22nd-28th.

  • The 56 pending sales include 23 homes, 30 condos and 3 lots.
  • The 30 condo sales include 16 vacation rentals . There are 4 additional condos located in resort areas that prohibit vacation rentals.
  • Seven properties listed for more than $2,000,000 went under contract. They include 5 homes and 2 condos.

Closed Transactions Between December 22nd and 28th

This chart shows weekly closed transactions in Maui County by property type. This chart starts in late February and runs all the way through late December.
Weekly Sales by Property Type in Maui County, Hawaii. Closed Transactions are a lagging indicator of buyer demand.

Maui Realtors reported 55 sales over the seven day period between December 23rd and December 29th. This is 21% fewer transactions than the seven days prior. It is 62% higher than the same seven day period of 2019. As with the pending sales, we would expect lower numbers compared to the week prior. There is one less day for recorded sales, and some sellers and buyers would want to avoid closing right around Christmas. That said, the 2019 numbers provide some context as to how busy things were comparatively.

New Listings December 23rd-29th

Weekly new inventory by property type in Maui County. This chart shows the period between late February and late December.

Maui Realtors listed 40 properties in the seven day period between December 23rd and 29th. That is 34% fewer properties than the seven days prior. It is 5% more new listings than the same seven day period of 2019. It is not a big surprise that this is a quieter week for new inventory. Listings that come to market right around the holiday may not get as much visibility with buyers.

Of the 40 new listings, only 12 are homes. This is quite a bit less than the 20 that went under contract. Scarcity of inventory remains a big factor in the single family home market as we enter the new year.

The new listings between the 23rd and 29th included 27 condos. This is also below the 30 condos that went under contract. While there is more condo inventory than home inventory available, buyers may find limited inventory depending on where they are searching.

There was just 1 new land listing to hit the market between the 23rd and the 29th. The land market saw a slight decrease in inventory over December. While there is variability based on geography, the land market also suffers to an extent from a lack of options.

Contact The Maui Real Estate Team

As we enter the new year, buyer activity remains strong and supply limited. At the same time, there seems to be growing instability in the world with Covid numbers continuing to rise and significant political unrest. Will that impact the market? Thus far, the Maui market remains resilient. If anything there is an argument that the relative safe haven of Maui may be appealing to buyers. We continue to work hard for buyers and sellers in these challenging times. Contact The Maui Real Estate Team if you are looking to buy or sell property on Maui. We look forward to talking to you and learning more about your real estate needs.

Pete Jalbert

Maui Real Estate Blog

June 19 Maui Real Estate Market Update

Buyer activity in the Maui Real Estate market is inching closer to pre-pandemic levels. As the influence of slower buyer demand in April wanes, sales numbers are improving. On the supply side, more sellers appear to be reentering the market now that things are opening up on island. Find out more details about this week’s Maui Real Estate activity below.

New Pending Real Estate Sales

Weekly pending Maui Real Estate Sales by property type during Covid-19 through June 18th.
Weekly pending real estate sales by property type in Maui County during the Covid-19 pandemic. Weeks run from Wednesday through Tuesday to correspond with the start of stay at home orders on Wednesday March, 25th.

Maui Realtors reported 54 new pending sales over the seven day period between June 10th and June 16th. That is a 13% increase over last week’s pending sales. It is just 4% below the same seven day period last year.

After a dip in mid-May, this is three straight weeks of increased pending sales. The headwinds of high unemployment and extremely limited visitor numbers are not significantly constraining buyer demand at this time.

This Week’s Notable Numbers from the Pending Real Estate Sales

  • The 54 new pending sales consisted of 28 pending home sales, 24 pending condo sales and 2 pending lot sales.
  • The 28 pending home sales equals a weekly high total during the pandemic. The 24 pending condo sales is the highest number since the start of the pandemic.
  • The condo market continues to see more activity from second home buyers with vacation rentals accounting for 16 of 24 condo pending sales.
  • The land market is not seeing a clear uptick in activity. The 2 pending lot sales are in line with typical Covid-19 levels of buyer demand. Including this week, Maui County is averaging 1.833 pending lot sales every seven days since March 25th.

This Week’s Closed Real Estate Transactions

Weekly Real Estates Sales in Maui County during the Covid-19 Pandemic
Weekly real estate sales by property type in Maui County during the Covid-19 Pandemic

Maui Realtors reported 34 sales between June 10th and 16th. This is a 212.5% increase in sales volume from the week prior. It is 23% below the closed transactions for the same seven day period of 2019. It is important to remember that sales are a lagging indicator of buyer demand. As we get further and further away from the slowest periods of buyer demand in early to mid April, we should continue to see a rise in closed deals.

This Week’s New Listings

New listings by property type in Maui County during the Covid-19 Pandemic.
Weekly new listings by property type during the Covid-19 Pandemic

Maui Realtors listed 78 properties between June 10th and June 16th. That is a 1% increase in new listings over the week prior. It is 5% lower than the same seven day period of 2019. I noticed a few listings that were pulled from the market earlier in the pandemic coming back again this week. Whether it is due to the very limited cases of Covid-19 on island or improved market conditions, some sellers that withdrew earlier are deciding to dip their toes back into the market.

Breaking it down by property type, new condo listings are outpacing new home listings. That has been the case for most weeks of the pandemic. Condo inventory was low prior to Covid-19 so there is room for the market to absorb some additional inventory. After the tight inventory pre-Covid, buyers will likely welcome a few more options on the market. The increase in inventory is also not universal. While some individual complexes are seeing more inventory, it remains limited in others. The balance between supply and demand in different parts of the condo market will be worth monitoring over the months ahead.

The inventory of homes increased over the last couple of months, but at a much slower pace. Over the last seven days pending home sales actually outpaced new listings by one. This is one of a handful of weeks since the start of the pandemic when pending home sales outpaced new home listings on a weekly basis.

Contact The Maui Real Estate Team

While the market conditions on Maui appear to be improving, it still isn’t quite back to normal. We are also seeing some varying levels of supply and demand between different market segments. Now more than ever, it makes sense to have quality representation if you are a buyer or seller. Contact The Maui Real Estate Team if you are thinking about buying or selling property on Maui. We look forward to learning about your needs and being of assistance.

Pete Jalbert

Maui Real Estate Blog

Maui Market Update May 29, 2020

Somehow in this strange time space continuum that is the Covid-19 pandemic, another week passed. Once again, that means its time to take a look at the weekly real estate activity in Maui County. This week’s numbers are almost identical to the numbers from last week. Keep reading for more of the details.

Weekly pending real estate sales in Maui County during the Covid-19 Pandemic through May 26th
This chart shows pending real estate sales in Maui County during the Covid-19 pandemic through May 26, 2020. The weeks run Wednesday through Tuesday as the initial stay at home orders went into place on March 25th, 2020.

Maui Realtors reported 32 pending sales in the seven day period between May 20th and May 26th. That is the same number of pending sales as last week. It is 49% of the 63 pendings from the same seven day period last year.

Having followed Maui real estate statistics pretty closely over the last seventeen years, I am reticent to read too much into a couple of weeks of data. That said, the chart above isn’t looking like a V shaped recovery. It is looking a little ragged if it is a check mark shaped recovery. It will be interesting to see the the numbers of the next couple of weeks to see if anything resembling a trend emerges.

Some Notable Numbers from This Week’s Pending Sales

  • The 32 pending sales broke down into fifteen pending home sales, 14 pending condo sales and 4 pending lots.
  • Pending home sales have outpaced pending condo sales for all but one week since the stay at home orders.
  • This is three straight weeks where pending home sales are down from the week prior. I am reticent to read into this too much as of yet. That said, this will be something to monitor going forward.
  • The vacation rental/second home condo market continues to outpace the non-vacation rental condo market. Eight of the thirteen pending sales are in complexes that allow vacation rentals.
  • The land market continues to fluctuate. The four pending sales for the week is tied for the most since the start of stay at home orders. This comes after zero pending lot transactions the week prior.

This Week’s Closed Transactions

Weekly Real Estate Sales Activity in Maui County During The Covid-19 Pandemic through May 26th
Weekly Real Estate Sales Activity for Maui County During the Covid-19 Pandemic Through May 26th

Only 16 transactions closed in the seven day period between May 20th and May 26th. That is one fewer transaction than last week. It is 20% of the 80 transactions that closed during the same seven day period of 2019. These two weeks reflect the really slow pending sales of late March and April. I would be surprised if we don’t start to see an increase in closings either next week or the week following.

A Quick Look at Inventory

Last week’s post looked at the number of new listings since the pandemic. I would like to put together charts showing weekly new inventory since the start of the pandemic, but I am limited by time constraints. I may try to address that on a future post. That said, new listings continue to lag behind last year’s numbers. There are 204 new land, condo and home listings for the month to date. Last year, there were 254 new listings over the same period. That is a 20% drop in new listings.

While the drop in listings is less than the drop in pending sales, it is worth noting that inventory levels were pretty constrained prior to the start of the pandemic. There is another point worth consideration. Quite a few sellers pulled their property from the market since the start of Covid-19. Since March 1, 2020, 364 sellers pulled their listings off the market. Over the same period of time last year, 249 sellers pulled listings off the market. That is a 46% increase. While inventory is growing, there is far from a glut of properties for sale.

The Big Picture

There were a couple of significant announcements related to the local economy over the last week. As of June 1, medium risk businesses will be opening on Maui. That includes restaurants with reduced capacity, fitness centers, and most county parks. As of yesterday, the governor indicated that the mandatory 14 day quarantine for inbound visitors will be extended through at least July 1.

The announcements over the last week points to a local economy that will be opening some, but the main economic engine of tourism will remain throttled for at least another month. I don’t think I am going out on too big of a limb by saying that a lack of tourism will continue to constrain the island’s second home market. While some second home buyers are comfortable with the current norm of sight unseen purchases, not all buyers share that sentiment.

The Maui Real Estate market continues to see activity albeit at reduced numbers. With still no tourism and a struggling local economy, it speaks to the desirability of a home on Maui. We live in a special place. There are local residents who still desire a home to call their own. There are off island residents who still want a place for when it is safe to fly back to Maui. Contact The Maui Real Estate Team if you are thinking of entering the Maui Real Estate market. We look forward to be of assistance.

Pete Jalbert

Maui Real Estate Blog

Weekly Maui Real Estate Update May 16

It’s that time of the week when I check in on the Maui Real Estate market during the age of Covid-19. We continue to see some promising signs as pending sales activity increases. On the other end of the spectrum, this week’s closed sales numbers are the lowest yet since the pandemic began. Low pending sales in late March in early April left their mark are impacting current closings.

Weekly Pending Real Estate Sales by Property Type in Maui County since the emergence of Covid-19 as a global threat.
A chart of pending weekly pending real estate sales by property type between late February and Mid May. The weeks run Wednesday through Tuesday. I used this start and end time based on the beginning of stay at home orders which began on March 25th.

Maui Realtors reported 39 new pending sales over a seven day period between March 6th and 12th. That is an 8% increase over the previous week and the fourth straight weekly increase in pending sales. It is only 5% below the same week of 2019. While that number looks pretty remarkable all things considered, context is key. The 41 sales from the same week last year appear to be a comparatively slow week for activity in the spring of 2019. The weeks before and after included 62 pending sales and 60 pending sales respectively. While we are seeing positive signs with the increase of activity, buyer activity has yet to rebound like some mainland markets.

Inside This Week’s Pending Sales

  • The 39 pending sales from the last week include 21 pending home sales, 14 pending condo sales and 4 new lot pendings.
  • This marks seven of eight weeks that pending home sales outpaced pending condo sales.
  • The composition of condo sales shifted this week. This is the first time that non-vacation rental condo pendings outpaced vacation rental pendings.
  • The four land pending sales is the highest weekly total since early March.

This Week’s Closed Transactions

Weekly real estate sales in Maui County by property type from late February through Mid May. The sales show the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on market activity
This chart shows weekly closed transactions by property type from late February through mid May. The impact of Covid-19 particularly as you get closer to present with most pre-pandemic sales already closed.

Maui Realtors reported 27 closed transactions over a seven day period between May 6th and 12th. That is down 25% from last week and 58% from the same seven day period of last year. Many pre-covid contracts closed already and the bulk of the sales stem from transactions during the pandemic. Closed sales are a lagging indicator of market demand.A lot of these transactions that are closing were from the weeks of really slow activity in late March and Early April.

The closed transactions include 12 home sales, 14 condo sales and 1 land sale. The one other thing that I thought was notable from the closings was the comparatively high number of luxury market sales. Fifteen percent of the transactions closed for more than $2,000,000.

A Quick look at The Big Picture

Maui and Hawaii in general effectively flattened the curve. We reported the last new case on island on Saturday. Only one patient remains hospitalized on Maui. These positive signs will allow the opening of additional business on the island. Hair and Nail salons are set to open May 22nd. Dine in restaurants open June 3rd. That said, social distancing will be in place for the foreseeable future. The governor is discouraging tourism through at least June. Determining a safe and effective plan for reopening the island’s for tourism remains a significant challenge.

It is likely that the lack of tourism will weigh on our real estate market, but the extent it will impact us remains a big unknown. At this time, inventory remains very low and prices appear to be stable.

Contact The Maui Real Estate Team if you are considering buying or selling property on Maui. We would welcome the chance to talk, Zoom or Facetime to discuss your real estate needs.

Pete Jalbert