Maui Real Estate Blog

Maui Market Musings Volume V

This week’s edition of the musings dives into recent numbers from the Maui Luxury Home and Luxury Condo market. There is also an update on the end of the State of Hawaii’s Safe Travels Program and Mask Mandates, a look at the national real estate market and a little bit of Maui beauty to brighten your day.

Maui Luxury Market Update

As we approach the end of the first quarter of the year, it is worth taking a moment to check into see how the luxury property market is fairing on Maui. For the sake of this article, luxury is defined as homes priced for $2,000,000 and above and condos priced $1,500,000 and above. The numbers below are based on sales numbers between January 1st and March 21st. Here are the numbers followed by a few thoughts on the luxury home and condo market.

Maui Luxury Home Market 2022 Sales Numbers

  • Thus far, 47 homes sold over $2,000,000 as of March 21st. That is down 13% from the 54 sold during the same period last year.
  • Six homes sold for more than $5,000,000 this year. That is down from 13 during the same period of 2021.
  • When you look at sales over $10,000,000, activity is up just a little bit. Realtors reported 4 sales over $10,000,000 compared to 3 last year.
  • A number of the stronger luxury home markets in early 2021 saw activity decrease in early 2022 as shown by the chart below. West Maui saw some of the more pronounced decreases with bigger drops in Lahaina and Ka’anapali.
A comparison of luxury home sales by district in Maui County in early 2021 and early 2022
A comparison of luxury home sales by market in early 2021 and early 2022.
  • A number of communities that did not see sales in 2021 experienced activity in 2022. Notably, there were 5 sales in Haiku and 3 in Makawao this year.
  • Days on Market decreased substantially on homes sold over $2,000,000. This year, the average sale is closing in 127 days. That is 29% less time on market than last year’s 179 days.
  • Competition in this market place is up significantly. Of the homes that sold for $2,000,000 or above, 57.44% closed for asking price or higher. That is well above the 16.67% that sold for asking price or above during the same period of 2021.
  • It is notable that the three highest priced home sales all closed for their full asking price.

Maui Luxury Condo Market 2022 Sales Numbers

  • Maui Realtors reported 71 condos sold for $1,500,000 or higher as of March 21st. That is up almost 34% from the 53 sold during the same period of 2021.
  • Of the 71 sales, 7 sold for $5,000,000 or more as of Match 21st. That is up slightly from the 6 that sold during the same period last year.
  • The Ka’anapali Condo market stands out for the significant increase in sales activity compared to other Maui markets. The Napili and Kahana market also experienced a notable increase.
This chart compares luxury condo sales on Maui by districts and communities during the beginning of  2022 and 2021.
A comparison of luxury condo sales by market in early 2021 and early 2022.
  • Other markets saw less drastic annual changes with Lahaina and Kapalua repeating last year’s numbers and Wailea and Makena down slightly.
  • A big reason for Ka’anapali’s increased activity is due to activity at Honua Kai. Honua Kai saw 12 sales after just 4 last year.
  • Days on market decreased quite a bit for high end condos. The average of 67 days on market is 54% lower than the average of 145 days on market in early 2021. It is worth noting, that long term new developer sales are excluded from calculations for both years. These are contracts signed pre-construction, but do not close until 2-3 years later when construction is completed.
  • Competition for luxury condos also increased. Of the 71 condos sold, 63.4% sold for asking price or above. That compares to 39.6% last year.

Some Takeaway from the Luxury Home and Condo Numbers

Volume may be down for homes, but that is more a function of reduced supply vs. decreased demand. The lower days on market and number of homes selling for at or above listing price support the notion of sustained demand and a more competitive market.

The impact of decreased inventory is also evident at the community level where places like Wailea and Makena are seeing lower sales volume due to decreased inventory. The Ka’anapali market and to an extent the Lahaina market are seeing lower sales for a few reasons. 1. Inventory is down at the lower price points of the luxury home market. 2. Some of the homes going under contract are “spec” houses with completion dates later in the year. Finally, some of the sellers are pushing the envelope on pricing. I mentioned the Lanikeha subdivision in Ka’anapali specifically in volume I of the market musings. The bulk of the inventory in that neighborhood is priced well above previous neighborhood high sales. To be fair, a couple of the higher priced homes have gone under contract since my post. That said, there are still quite a few homes available.

The increase in activity in new markets is also due to a combination of factors. We are seeing some homes selling above $2,000,000 due in part to appreciation. With price increases year over year ranging between 10 and 20 percent, some of last year’s below $2,000,000 sales are going for more money. Another factor is just plain old variability. Places like Haiku and Makawao both saw an increase in $2,000,000 sales over the last 4 years. It’s just that early 2021 was quieter in those communities. We are also seeing some luxury buyers expand their search outside the resort markets due to the lack of inventory.

The increase in activity in the condo market is largely due to better inventory selection compared to the luxury single family home market. That said, not all markets have an abundance of inventory. The Wailea and Makena area have lower inventory and it is reflected in the lower sales volume. We can see the impact of decreased inventory in some area of the luxury condo market in both the decreased days on market and the higher percentage of condos selling at or above asking price.

End of Safe Travels and the Mask Mandate

March 25th was the last day of the Hawaii Safe Travels program. Travelers coming to Hawaii will no longer need proof of vaccination or a negative covid test prior to arrival. It is also the last day of the indoor mask mandate in Hawaii. There are still requirements to wear masks on planes, buses, public schools and the airport.

Interest Rate Increases Don’t Seem to be Slowing the Market Around the Country

While keeping tabs on the local market, it’s also worth keeping an eye on national trends. This is particularly the case in the current market as interest rates hit heights we haven’t seen over the last few years. The folks over at Altos Research have good access to pending sales data around the country. That gives you a little better sense of current market conditions than what you would get by just looking at sales data. Here is their video overview of the most recent data and it’s worth a watch.

If you don’t have the time to watch, here are a few quick notes. Inventory ticked up again although pending sales and pricing both appear to be strong. They are watching closely to see if the recent rates are impacting buyers. While they aren’t seeing any data to really suggest a change in market conditions, they spoke to a few things they are looking for that might indicate a potential slow down from the current frenzy. They mentioned listening for anecdotal signs of less active bidding wars. Altos suggested keeping an eye out for an increase on cancelled transactions and an increase in cancelled new developer contracts. Again, they haven’t seen that in the national data yet.

For what it’s worth, they aren’t expecting any seismic shifts in the market other than moderation of the current activity. The caveat being that a more significant shift could occur if interest rates were to settle over 5%.

Interestingly, there were a few more cancelled contracts on the Maui MLS last week. I am hesitant to read too much into the cancellations at this point. While it might be related to the rise in rates, it could also be a coincidence. It is something to watch a little more closely going forward.

A Little Bit of Maui Beauty

It was another beautiful morning on Maui today. I thought it was worth sharing this photo from Baldwin Beach with the West Maui Mountains in all of their glory.

Contact The Maui Real Estate Team

Have questions on anything in this post? Need assistance buying or selling property on island? Just want to talk about a specific part of the market? Contact The Maui Real Estate Team. We look forward to being of assistance.

Pete Jalbert

Maui Real Estate Blog

October 26th Weekly Maui Real Estate Market Update

As we move into the middle of October, a lot of new pending sales shows buyer demand for the Maui Real Estate market remains strong. Closed transaction took another anomalous dip. While new inventory ticked up again led by new condo listings. Keep reading for all of the numbers for October 14th-20th.

This Week’s Pending Sales

This is a chart showing the weekly new pending sales by property type in Maui County during the Covid Pandemic.
Weekly new pending sales by property type in Maui County, Hawaii During the Covid-19 Pandemic. New Pending Sales are the best indicator of current market demand .

Maui Realtors reported 61 new pending sales over the six day period between October 14th and October 20th. That is approximately a 2% increase over the seven days prior. It is 15% more activity than the same period of 2019.

Notable Numbers From This Week’s Pending Sales

  • This is the fourth straight week of 60 or more new pending sales
  • The 61 new pending sales included 28 homes, 27 condos and 6 lots.
  • Of the 27 condo pendings, 17 are located in developments that allow vacation rentals.
  • The high end market continues to see heightened levels of activity. Six homes and one condo priced over $2,000,000 went under contract this week.

This Week’s Closed Transactions

This chart shows weekly closed transactions in Maui County during the Covid Nineteen Pandemic.
Weekly closed transactions by property type in Maui County, Hawaii during The Covid-19 pandemic. Keep in mind that sales are a lagging indicator of buyer demand.

Maui Realtors reported 37 properties sold over the seven day period between October 14th and October 20th. This is 36% below the prior seven days. It is 26% below the same seven days of 2019. The low sales numbers were driven largely by a lack of single family home sales. Only 11 homes closed.

I have to say the sales numbers make me scratch my head a little. Dating back to mid-July, the lowest weekly pending sales number is 51. Since the start of September, there have been four weeks with 42 sales or less. We are seeing a few properties fall out of escrow, but not enough to quite explain the difference between pending and sales.

This Week’s New Inventory

Maui Realtors listed 87 properties between October 14th and 20th. This is a 45% increase over last week. It is 14% higher than the same seven days of 2019.

Last week, I asked the question as to whether we might see more condo owners decide to bring their property to market with visitors back on island. The answer to that question is a resounding yes. The 53 condos that came to market is the highest weekly total since the last week of August. The next question is whether we continue to see higher levels of condo inventory going to market or if the surge is limited to immediately around the reopening.

The 53 new condo listings is well over the 27 that went under contract over the same period. After a couple of weeks of slower inventory growth, the condo inventory jumped again. This is going to be really interesting to follow the inventory over the next few weeks. As asked above, will we see a lot of new listings? On the other end of the spectrum, might we see an increase in demand for vacation rental condos with visitors/potential buyers back on island.

The 26 new home listings is less than the 28 new pending home sales. This means another modest decrease in inventory. As with recent weeks, the decrease in inventory is particularly pronounced at lower price points with few home listings coming to market under $800,000. The median price of the new home listings this week came in at $1,422,500. The average price of the new home listings is $2,373,125. Limited inventory and strong buyer demand is pushing up home values in many of the markets around the island.

The land inventory saw another modest increase with 8 new listings compared to 6 new pending sales. Overall, inventory in the land market seems to be pretty steady. If anything, pricing seems to be increasing modestly in a number of markets around the island. This is particularly the case Upcountry and in Haiku. Those markets are seeing more activity.

Contact The Maui Real Estate Team

Market activity remains very strong on island. Buyer demand is fueled by two separate dynamics. Local buyers with steady employment are taking advantage of very low interest rates. There is also a healthy pool of off island buyers who are relocating to the island. The work from anywhere ethos is causing a fair number of people to make the move to Maui. Contact The Maui Real Estate Team if you are thinking of buying or selling property on island. We are working hard to bring our clients success in these dynamic market conditions. We look forward to talking and learning more about your real estate needs.

Pete Jalbert

Maui Real Estate Blog

Weekly Maui Real Estate Market Report October 5th

The only thing we can expect at this point is the unexpected. True words when it comes to the state of the world. While Maui is a lot less turbulent than much of the world, these words resonate as I comb through the data from the latest seven day tracking period. Weekly new pending sales were the highest since the start of Covid-19. Closed transactions were again surprisingly lower. New listings are down a little from the week prior. Keep reading for more details on this week’s numbers.

This Week’s New Pending Sales

A chart showing weekly new pending sales by property type in Maui County Hawaii during the Covid 19 pandemic
This chart shows weekly new pending sales by property type during the Covid-19 pandemic. New pending sales are the best indicator of current buyer demand in Maui County, Hawaii.

Maui Realtors reported 67 new pending sales over the seven day period between September 23rd and September 29th. That is 16% increase over the previous seven days. That is 29% higher than the same seven day period of 2019. After a month of pretty consistent activity between 52 and 60 pending sales, this is a pretty healthy bump in activity. Late September isn’t the time of year when you would expect the busiest week for new transactions over the last six months.

Notable Numbers from This Week’s Pending Sales

  • The 67 pending sales included 25 homes, 37 condos and 5 lots.
  • The 37 pending condo sales is the highest weekly total since I started tracking activity during Covid-19. I have to say that the bump in condo activity is unexpected. I know there is some anticipation among Realtors that vacation rental condo activity might pick up when tourism starts to reopen on October 15th.
  • Of the 37 pending condo sales, 19 are located in developments that allow vacation rentals. This means that the stronger pending sales are almost equal parts non-vacation rental and vacation rental condos.
  • Demand for land is pretty steady albeit a couple pending sales a week slower than what we saw in late July and August.
  • The luxury market continues to see strong activity. This week 5 homes and 3 condos priced for more than $2,000,000 went under contract.

This Week’s Sales Activity

A Chart That shows weekly sales activity by property type during the Covid-19 pandemic in Maui County Hawaii
Weekly Real Estate Sales Activity by property type in Maui County, Hawaii. It is important to note that sales are a lagging indicator of buyer demand. It typically takes 30-60 days for most real estate transactions to close.

Maui Realtors reported 42 sales over the seven day period between September 23rd and September 29th. That is a 13.5% increase over the 7 days prior. It is 28% lower than the same seven day period of 2019. This is the second week in a row of quieter sales. These two weeks remain something of anomaly with no significant dip in pending sales over the last two months to drive the lower sales. It is worth noting that there was a pretty healthy bump in closed transaction right after this tracking period on September 30th and October 1st. Expect higher sales in the next update.

This Week’s Volume of New Inventory

This chart shows weekly new real estate inventory by property type in Maui County during the Covid-19 pandemic.
Weekly new inventory by property type in Maui County, Hawaii during the Covid-19 pandemic.

Maui Realtors brought 79 properties to market in the seven day period between September 23rd and September 29th. That is a 5% decrease from the seven days prior. It is 7% lower than the same seven day period of 2019.

Once again, condos comprised the greatest portion of the new listings to come to market. There were 43 new condo listings over this seven day period. While pending sales were up over this period, this marks another net increase in active condo inventory.

While new home inventory is down from last week, it is still the second biggest week for new home listings since July. This is also the second week in a row where new listings exceeded pending sales resulting in a net increase in inventory. As with last week, buyers looking at lower price points may not have noticed the increase. The median price of new home listings is over $1,000,000 and the average price is over $2,000,000. In the scheme of things, the slight increase in inventory over the last two weeks is pretty negligible in the scheme of things. The overall supply of single family homes for sale remains limited.

There was another modest uptick in land inventory this week. With inventory still relatively tight, I can’t see any big changes in the land market forthcoming.

Contact The Maui Real Estate Team

Market conditions remain surprisingly resilient. Personally, buyers I represented were in a couple of bidding wars for homes over the last ten days. While that isn’t uncommon with properties around and below the island’s median sales price, these multi offer situations were at higher price points. That marks a shift.

There is still variability in market conditions by location, property type and price point. Under these circumstances, quality representation and market knowledge is important. Contact The Maui Real Estate Team if you are considering buying or selling property on Maui. We look forward to learning about your real estate needs and offering our assistance and expertise.

Pete Jalbert

Maui Real Estate Blog

Maui Real Estate Market Update August 8, 2020

The Maui Real Estate market concluded another pretty busy seven day period between July 29th and August 4. It was the third busiest week for new pending sales during Covid-19. Sales activity was the strongest since the end of March. While new inventory was up this week, that increase wasn’t uniform across all property types. Keep reading for more details and numbers.

This Week’s New Pending Sales

Weekly pending real estate sales in Maui County by property type during Covid-19
Weekly new pending real estate sales by property type in Maui County during the Covid-19 pandemic. This is the best indicator of current buyer demand in the Maui Real Estate market.

Maui Realtors reported 57 new pending sales over the seven day period between July 29th and August 4th. That is a 7% decrease from last week and 14% higher than the same seven day period of 2019. This is the second week in a row when pending sales this year exceeded the same seven day period of 2019. It is only the third time this has happened during Covid-19.

Notable Numbers from This Week’s Pending Sales

  • The 57 new pending sales include 21 homes, 29 condos and 7 lots.
  • Demand for homes is outpacing demand for condos through most of the pandemic. Over the last month, condo activity seems to be picking up while home sales are down a little. I can’t give a definitive reason why, but I surmise scarce home inventory could be a factor.
  • Of the 29 new pending condo sales, 19 are in complexes that allow vacation rentals.
  • Two homes listed for over $2,000,000 went under contract this week.
  • The demand for land remains consistent on a weekly basis. This week there were 7 new pending lot sales. Over the last six weeks, we are averaging 6 new pendings per week.

This Week’s Closed Real Estate Transactions

Weekly closed real estate transactions by property type during the Covid-19 Pandemic in Maui County, Hawaii
Weekly closed real estate transaction by property type in Maui County, Hawaii during Covid-19. Sales are a lagging indicator of buyer demand. Most contracts take 30-60 days to close in Hawaii. With some new developments, the contracts may date back a couple of years prior to the start of construction.

Maui Realtors reported 65 sales over the seven day period between July 29th and August 4th. That is a 59% increase over last week and down 8.5% from the same seven day period of 2019. This is the busiest week for sales since the last week of March. The higher sales numbers are reflecting the increased buyer activity in June. The numbers also received a boost from ten sales in new developments. Nine of those sales are from contracts written in 2019. One sale at Makena Golf and Beach Club goes all the way back to a contract agreed upon in 2017.

This Week’s New Inventory

A chart displaying weekly New inventory during the Covid-19 pandemic.
Weekly new inventory by property type during the Covid-19 Pandemic in Maui County, Hawaii.

Maui Realtors brought 72 properties to market in the last week. That is 26.3% more than last week. It is 9% lower than what came on the market during the same seven day period of 2019.

Once again, more new condo inventory came to market than any other property type. The 43 new condo listings exceeds the 29 that went pending in the last week. The difference between new condo inventory and condo pending sales isn’t quite as drastic as it was a month or so ago, but there is still a net increase in condo inventory.

As mentioned over the last couple of weeks, the increase in inventory isn’t occurring in all parts of the condo market. It is more pronounced in some vacation rental friendly condo developments and the entry level non-vacation rental developments in Kihei. We are starting to see the impact of increased inventory as some sellers are reducing prices below recent comparable sales.

There were 23 new home listings between July 29th and August 4th. That is slightly above the 21 homes that went pending. The inventory of homes for sale on island remains limited overall. The limited inventory supports and in some cases means upward pressure on current home values depending on location and price point.

Between July 29th and August 4th, 6 land listings came to market. That is less than the 7 lots that went under contract over the same period. Inventory in the land market grew over the first few months of the pandemic. Over the last month or more, inventory stabilized. Pricing for land across most of the island is stable to slightly up depending on location and price point.

Contact The Maui Real Estate Team

While the situation in the world remains wildly unpredictable, the national real estate market remains resilient. While that is true for Maui in general, we are seeing potential signs of market bifurcation. Some parts of the market remain strong while others are starting to soften. We continue to monitor the island’s various market segments closely. Contact the Maui Real Estate Team if you are considering buying or selling property on Maui. We welcome the chance to learn about your needs and offer our market expertise.

Pete Jalbert

Maui Real Estate Blog

June 19 Maui Real Estate Market Update

Buyer activity in the Maui Real Estate market is inching closer to pre-pandemic levels. As the influence of slower buyer demand in April wanes, sales numbers are improving. On the supply side, more sellers appear to be reentering the market now that things are opening up on island. Find out more details about this week’s Maui Real Estate activity below.

New Pending Real Estate Sales

Weekly pending Maui Real Estate Sales by property type during Covid-19 through June 18th.
Weekly pending real estate sales by property type in Maui County during the Covid-19 pandemic. Weeks run from Wednesday through Tuesday to correspond with the start of stay at home orders on Wednesday March, 25th.

Maui Realtors reported 54 new pending sales over the seven day period between June 10th and June 16th. That is a 13% increase over last week’s pending sales. It is just 4% below the same seven day period last year.

After a dip in mid-May, this is three straight weeks of increased pending sales. The headwinds of high unemployment and extremely limited visitor numbers are not significantly constraining buyer demand at this time.

This Week’s Notable Numbers from the Pending Real Estate Sales

  • The 54 new pending sales consisted of 28 pending home sales, 24 pending condo sales and 2 pending lot sales.
  • The 28 pending home sales equals a weekly high total during the pandemic. The 24 pending condo sales is the highest number since the start of the pandemic.
  • The condo market continues to see more activity from second home buyers with vacation rentals accounting for 16 of 24 condo pending sales.
  • The land market is not seeing a clear uptick in activity. The 2 pending lot sales are in line with typical Covid-19 levels of buyer demand. Including this week, Maui County is averaging 1.833 pending lot sales every seven days since March 25th.

This Week’s Closed Real Estate Transactions

Weekly Real Estates Sales in Maui County during the Covid-19 Pandemic
Weekly real estate sales by property type in Maui County during the Covid-19 Pandemic

Maui Realtors reported 34 sales between June 10th and 16th. This is a 212.5% increase in sales volume from the week prior. It is 23% below the closed transactions for the same seven day period of 2019. It is important to remember that sales are a lagging indicator of buyer demand. As we get further and further away from the slowest periods of buyer demand in early to mid April, we should continue to see a rise in closed deals.

This Week’s New Listings

New listings by property type in Maui County during the Covid-19 Pandemic.
Weekly new listings by property type during the Covid-19 Pandemic

Maui Realtors listed 78 properties between June 10th and June 16th. That is a 1% increase in new listings over the week prior. It is 5% lower than the same seven day period of 2019. I noticed a few listings that were pulled from the market earlier in the pandemic coming back again this week. Whether it is due to the very limited cases of Covid-19 on island or improved market conditions, some sellers that withdrew earlier are deciding to dip their toes back into the market.

Breaking it down by property type, new condo listings are outpacing new home listings. That has been the case for most weeks of the pandemic. Condo inventory was low prior to Covid-19 so there is room for the market to absorb some additional inventory. After the tight inventory pre-Covid, buyers will likely welcome a few more options on the market. The increase in inventory is also not universal. While some individual complexes are seeing more inventory, it remains limited in others. The balance between supply and demand in different parts of the condo market will be worth monitoring over the months ahead.

The inventory of homes increased over the last couple of months, but at a much slower pace. Over the last seven days pending home sales actually outpaced new listings by one. This is one of a handful of weeks since the start of the pandemic when pending home sales outpaced new home listings on a weekly basis.

Contact The Maui Real Estate Team

While the market conditions on Maui appear to be improving, it still isn’t quite back to normal. We are also seeing some varying levels of supply and demand between different market segments. Now more than ever, it makes sense to have quality representation if you are a buyer or seller. Contact The Maui Real Estate Team if you are thinking about buying or selling property on Maui. We look forward to learning about your needs and being of assistance.

Pete Jalbert

Maui Real Estate Blog

Weekly Maui Real Estate Update June 6, 2020

It has been another week that feels more like a month. Or a year. That also means its time to check in again on the Maui Real Estate market. By a good margin, this was the busiest seven day period for pending sales since February 26th-March 3rd. I keep a close enough eye on the market on a day to day basis that I can’t say I am surprised by this week’s numbers. That said, they don’t really align with the general disorder of the world right now. Read further to find out more details about this week’s numbers.

Weekly Pending Real Estate Sales

Pending Sales Maui County June 2
This chart shows weekly pending real estate sales in Maui County during the Covid-19 pandemic. The weeks run from Wednesday through the following Tuesday. I used this range as the start of stay at home orders on Maui started on March 25th, 2020.

Maui Realtors reported 46 new pending sales between May 27th and June 2nd. That is a 43% increase over last week. That is 16% below the same seven day period of 2019.

After a couple of weeks of relatively flat pending sales, this is a pretty healthy uptick in activity. This surge comes in the midst of a period of historic national upheaval. It’s a lot easier to report the numbers than to explain the numbers this week. If you are looking for other factors at play, some of Maui’s stay at home restrictions were eased on June 1. If that had an impact, it would be more of a psychological one as a good number of the seven day period’s pending sales came before the first of the month.

Going into this week, I remained somewhat surprised by the resiliency of our market. We have close to no off island visitors and our unemployment rate is somewhere between 30 and 40%. Under those conditions, you would expect our activity to be lower. Low and behold, during one of the biggest weeks of social unrest in recent U.S. History buyer activity increased to the highest level since Covid-19 came into the picture.

If there is one other takeaway besides the market’s relative resilience, it would be it’s overall unpredictability. Our market showed a nice bounce coming off the bottom. After a period of steadily increasing activity, it dipped and stalled for a couple of weeks. Now, activity is up again. I would anticipate that we will continue to see fluctuations in the market.

Details Behind This Week’s Pending Sales

  • The 46 pending sales included 28 pending home sales, 15 pending condo sales and 3 pending land sales.
  • The one clear trend in our Covid-19 impacted market is the shift towards home buying. Condo sales outpaced home sales the first three months of the year. Now for every week but one since the start of the pandemic, home pendings outpaced condos. I don’t believe it is a shift in preference. I think it is more due to a contraction in the pool of available condo buyers, particularly off island buyers.
  • This week was the strongest week for pending home sales since February 26th-March 3rd. This comes after three straight weeks in which pending home sales decreased. Just as I was wondering if there may be a trend developing, this week blew that up.
  • This week’s pending condo sales broke down to 9 pendings in condos that prohibit vacation rentals and 6 pendings in condos that allow vacation rentals.
  • This is contrary to a general trend towards vacation rental purchases since the start of Covid-19.
  • The three land pending sales is within the range of 0-4 weekly pending sales that Realtors reported over the last couple of months.
  • One of the new pending land sales was particularly notable. A 1.7 acre beachfront lot in Kapalua listed for $9,900,000 went under contract.

This Week’s Sales Activity

Weekly Real Estate Sales in Maui County during the Covid-19 Pandemic
Weekly Real Estate Sales activity in Maui County during the Covid-19 pandemic up until June 2, 2020.

Maui Realtors reported 35 closed transactions between May 27th and June 2nd. This is a 218% increase over the week prior. That said, it is still 48% below the same seven day period last year. The sales numbers are starting to pick up after being in the doldrums over the last couple of weeks. The increased sales now are reflecting the increase in pending sales that occurred in mid to late April.

Tracking New Inventory

Weekly new real estate inventory in Maui County during the Covid-19 Pandemic.
This chart shows weekly new real estate inventory in Maui County during the Covid-19 pandemic.

Over, the last couple of weeks I added new inventory into our weekly analysis. Today, I took the time to graph weekly inventory between the week of February 26-May 3rd and the seven day period from May 27th-June 2nd .

While not as drastic, there are some similarities to the trends shown in the chart for pending sales. New listings dropped in early and mid-April with a rise in new listings towards the end of the month and mid May. There was a similar dip in activity in the second half of May.

As with pending sales, there was a pretty big uptick in new listings this week. The 77 new listings is a 63% increase over the week prior and a 35% over the same seven day period of 2019.

Maui went into Covid-19 with a shortage of inventory and strong demand. We saw a decrease in supply and a decrease in demand in April. At this point, our inventory remains relatively limited but growing. Demand is below pre-pandemic levels. The current balance is keeping prices stable. It is difficult to guess how things will play out moving forward. We see how demand has fluctuated. We are also seeing some fluctuation in new inventory. Overall, this balance between supply and demand will dictate pricing moving forward.

Contact The Maui Real Estate Team

In these uncertain times, it pays to work with experienced agents. We strive to keep our clients well informed on market conditions and inventory so they can make informed decisions. We take pride in being your strong fiduciary. Send us a message if you are thinking of buying or selling Maui property. One of our agents would welcome the chance to sit down with you to discuss your real estate needs.

Pete Jalbert