This is the 23rd edition of our Maui Market musings. We started this series of posts just over a year ago. Our goal was to try to look at market statistics that provide a better indication of current market conditions. Sales figures can lag behind current market dynamics. We wanted to focus on supply and current demand in what was a more dynamic market. The market slowed quite a bit over the last year, but market conditions are far from straight forward. Keep reading below to learn more about January market activity, active and pending listings and information on sales price vs. list price.

January Market Activity

What type of market did we see in the past month? How many homes and condos came to market, how many went under contract and how many sold? Data from the previous 5 years provides some context.

New Inventory

	January 23	January 22	January 21	January 20	January 19	January 18
Homes	66	117	104	133	135	134
Condos	113	195	197	164	197	215

Looking at the chart above, new inventory is well below normal. Not just compared to the last couple of years but particularly compared to January in the three years prior to the start of the pandemic. New home inventory is almost 44% below last January and over 50% lower than any January between 2018 and 2020. Condo inventory wasn’t off quite as much. It is 42% lower than last year and anywhere between 30% and 47% lower than January of 2018, 2019 and 2020.

Constrained inventory may be a challenge for a while. The low interest rates of the last couple of years have have potential Sellers that might be looking to step up to a larger home or downsize staying put. Other potential sellers are reticent to list with limited replacement inventory available.

Pending Sales

	January 23	January 22	January 21	January 20	January 19	January 18
Homes	54	90	120	89	98	106
Condos	90	177	243	133	153	162

January typically marks the first full month of our winter buying season. This period that runs from Christmas to mid-April coincides with peak visitor season. After a quiet fall, there was some question as to whether we might see a resumption of normal or at least something closer to normal buyer activity as we enter busy season. Thus far, that does not appear to be the case. Pending home sales are off 40% from last year and anywhere between 39% and 49% below January during 2018-2020. Pending condo sales are down 49% from last year and anywhere between 32% and 44% below 2018-2020.

Closed Transactions

	January 23	January 22	January 21	January 20	January 19	January 18
Homes	59	91	94	81	61	83
Condos	52	151	114	124	125	120

The sales numbers are a lagging indicator. For the most part, they tend to reflect contracts agreed upon in November and December. The data above reinforces what we noted in previous editions of our market musings. It was a slow fall, particularly for condo sales.

Home sales are 35% below last year and anywhere between 3% and 29% below January 2018-2020. On the condo front, this January’s sales are a whopping 65% below last year and between 57% and 58% below January 2018, 2019 and 2020.

End of Maui January Home Inventory

The charts below provide end of the month active and pending home inventory by price point and district around Maui.

	11/30/22		12/31/22		1/30/23
	Active	Pending	Active	Pending	Active	Pending
<$750,000	5	14	6	10	10 (+4)	11 (+1)
$750,000-$999,999	31	25	25	28	21 (-4)	25 (-3)
$1,000,000-$1,499,999	61	28	78	20	71 (-7)	30 (+10)
$1,500,000-$1,999,999	28	17	36	11	33 (-3)	9 (-2)
$2,000,000-$2,999,999	34	11	37	12	42 (+5)	7 (-5)
$3,000,000-$4,999,999	32	7	31	9	32 (+1)	10 (+1)
$5,000,000-$9,999,999	23	9	27	8	27	6 (-2)
$10,000,000-$19,999,999	14	0	14	0	16 (+2)	0
$20,000,000+	5	1	4	2	5 (+1)	1 (-1)
Total	233	112	258	100	257 (-1)	99 (-1)

	11/30/22		12/31/22		1/31/23
	Active	Pending	Active	Pending	Active	Pending
Haiku	29	10	29	7	26 (-3)	7
Hana	10	0	10	1	9 (-1)	1
Ka’anapali	9	2	9	3	10 (+1)	5 (+2)
Kahului	16	13	16	13	13 (-3)	11 (-2)
Kapalua	5	3	5	3	7 (+2)	1 (-2)
Kihei	31	15	39	7	32 (-7)	17 (+10)
Kula	22	12	21	10	21	11 (+1)
Lahaina	15	13	18	11	19 (+1)	9 (-2)
Makawao	11	7	35	4	31 (-4)	6 (+2)
Napili/Kahana/Hono	9	3	13	3	13	1 (-2)
Pukalani	10	3	7	3	11 (+4)	4 (+1)
Sprecks/Paia	7	3	9	1	8 (-1)	1
Wailea	16	4	13	6	16 (+3)	3 (-3)
Wailuku	32	19	25	25	30 (+5)	17 (-8)

Three Things to Note About the End of January Home Inventory

• Overall, there was remarkably little change in active and pending sales since the end of December. Island wide there was only one fewer pending listing and one fewer active listing. Have I mentioned that January is usually the start of busy season? This is not the type of month to month shift you would expect with more seasonal activity.
• Drilling down by price point, a little more change is evident. The price ranges between $750,000-$1,500,000 tend to have the highest percentage of financed transactions. That range experienced higher inventory and decreased pendings through much of the fall due to higher rates. With rates lower through much of January, inventory is starting to decrease again. The $1,000,000-$1,500,000 price saw the biggest increase in pending sales of any price point.
• Home buyer activity in the resorts remained quiet. Kapalua and Wailea both saw a decrease in pending sales and a small increase in active inventory. Ka’anapali inventory increased with a couple of additional pending sales reported.

End of January Maui Condo Inventory

The charts below provide end of the month active and pending condo inventory by price point and district. It is worth noting that the Wailea pending sales receive a boost from 75 new developer units reserved in La’i Loa at Wailea Hills. These properties went under contract between 2020 and the the first quarter of 2021. Priced from just under $1,500,000 all the way up to over $4,000,000, these long term contracts are also skewing the also pending sales upwards in this price range. Paradise Ridge Estates is another new development in Kihei with 18 pending sales based on contracts signed between 2018 and the first quarter of 2022.

	11/30/22		12/31/22		1/30/23
	Active	Pending	Active	Pending	Active	Pending
<$250,000	1	4	2	2	1 (-1)	2
$250,000-$499,999	19	14	12	16	14 (+2)	11 (-5)
$500,000-$749,999	43	33	38	25	49 (+11)	31 (+6)
$750,000-$999,999	28	29	42	27	39 (-3)	42 (+15)
$1,000,000-$1,499,999	31	24	32	21	29 (-3)	32 (+11)
$1,500,000-$1,999,999	21	28	26	29	30 (+4)	35 (+6)
$2,000,000-$2,999,999	18	39	18	36	17 (-1)	40 (+4)
$3,000,000-$4,999,999	11	17	10	18	11 (+1)	17 (-1)
$5,000,000-$9,999,999	12	2	14	0	12 (-2)	2 (+2)
$10,000,000+	3	0	4	0	4	0
Totals	187	190	198	174	206 (+8)	212 (+38)

	11/30/22		12/31/22		1/31/23
	Active	Pending	Active	Pending	Active	Pending
Ka’aanapali	25	4	22	9	24 (+2)	12 (+3)
Kahului	5	5	4	3	3 (-1)	4 (+1)
Kapalua	14	2	12	3	13 (+1)	6 (+3)
Kihei	53	61	61	45	65 (+4)	72 (+27)
Lahaina	14	8	11	12	12 (+1)	9 (-3)
Ma’alaea	4	8	5	5	5	7 (+2)
Napili/Kahana/Hono	39	19	50	16	50	14 (-2)
Wailea/Makena	23	85	27	79	26 (-1)	81 (+2)
Wailuku	8	8	4	4	7 (+3)	6 (+2)

Three Things to Note About The End of January Condo Activity

• The end of January condo numbers do show more of a seasonal shift with a 21.83% increase in pending sales over the end of December. It also appears as if more sellers are coming to market with active listings increasing despite the increased pending sales.
• Drilling down by price point, the increase in pending sales is pretty broad based with only two price ranges showing fewer pending sales and two price points unchanged.
• Looking at the districts, Kihei is by far and away the focal point of increased condo sales. Kihei pending sales increased 60% since the end December. Pending sales throughout the rest of the districts were mixed. Notably, Wailea and the other resorts were really quiet as was the Napili, Kahana and Honokowai district.

Interest Rates

One of the bigger takeaways from the home inventory was the increase in buyer activity and decrease in listings in the price ranges with more financed buyers. The decrease in interest rates at the end of last year and to start this year improved affordability bringing buyers back to the market. There were some who thought further decreases in rates could heat up the market again. Well, if you haven’t been tracking rates closely, they are back on the rise again.

Forecasting rates is a fool’s errand at this point. That said, the trajectory of rates will continue to impact the market. Needless to say, higher rates may cool some segments of the market while any substantive decrease in rates could boost demand.

Are Sellers Negotiating?

During the frenzied market of 2021 and the first half of 2022, negotiation became something of a forgotten term on Maui. Sellers were in the driver seat and a significant number of the sales closed for asking price or above. With less buyer activity than last year, how much are sellers willing to negotiate in the current market?

While we don’t have transparency on contract prices with recent pending sales, I looked at closed sales between January 1 and February 15th to get a sense of how much negotiation occurred.

Looking at the home chart, you can see that there still is some competition for homes with 31% of all sales coming in at full asking price and an additional 13% over asking price. That points to the continued impact of low inventory. While there are fewer buyers, the below normal inventory levels mean that there can be competition for quality listings. That said, 18% of buyers are paying anywhere between 5% and 10% below asking price. An additional 15% are paying more 10% below asking price with a handful of those more than 20% below.

Looking at the condo chart, recent sales point to a more competitive market with 18% of recent sales closing for over asking price and 37% for full price. Only 16% of all listings sold for less than 95% of asking price with only 1% less than 90% of asking price. While buyer activity is down, inventory remains limited and some segments of the market are particularly scarce.

Overall, buyers have more latitude to make offers under current market conditions. That said, it really depends on price range and the districts where they are searching. It is also worth noting that a number of the sellers who are negotiating are those that priced above market. At this point, values feel pretty stable and sellers aren’t chasing the market.

A Few Last Thoughts

This musings is being published a little later than usual in the month. That afforded me the opportunity to incorporate sales data from the first 15 days of the month in the section above. While I didn’t delve into this February’s pending data yet, at a surface level the overall number of pending sales continues to increase. They should be rising as this is our peak buying season. The questions is how much are pending sales increasing compared to what is normal during this time of year? Anecdotally, it seems like the resorts are seeing a little more activity than they were in January. It will be interesting to see how the numbers stack up to previous years at the end of the month.

While things are understandably busier than the fall, market conditions remain weird. Decreased demand for this time of year is offset in part by lower inventory. That creates some pockets of the market that remain competitive. That said, there are also a fair number of sellers stuck in the market frenzy mindset. For the most part, those properties are quiet and accumulating days on market.

There are still quite a few sellers hitting surprisingly high prices. That’s part of the weird vibe that permeates the market.

A Little Maui Beauty to Brighten This Post

Contact The Maui Real Estate Team

Questions on this month’s numbers? Thinking about buying or selling property on Maui? Contact the Maui Real Estate Team. We welcome the chance to talk, listen and learn more about your real estate needs. Out experienced group of agents are here to help you guide through the current market’s peculiar conditions.

This week’s edition of the musings dives into recent numbers from the Maui Luxury Home and Luxury Condo market. There is also an update on the end of the State of Hawaii’s Safe Travels Program and Mask Mandates, a look at the national real estate market and a little bit of Maui beauty to brighten your day.

Maui Luxury Market Update

As we approach the end of the first quarter of the year, it is worth taking a moment to check into see how the luxury property market is fairing on Maui. For the sake of this article, luxury is defined as homes priced for $2,000,000 and above and condos priced $1,500,000 and above. The numbers below are based on sales numbers between January 1st and March 21st. Here are the numbers followed by a few thoughts on the luxury home and condo market.

Maui Luxury Home Market 2022 Sales Numbers

• Thus far, 47 homes sold over $2,000,000 as of March 21st. That is down 13% from the 54 sold during the same period last year.
• Six homes sold for more than $5,000,000 this year. That is down from 13 during the same period of 2021.
• When you look at sales over $10,000,000, activity is up just a little bit. Realtors reported 4 sales over $10,000,000 compared to 3 last year.
• A number of the stronger luxury home markets in early 2021 saw activity decrease in early 2022 as shown by the chart below. West Maui saw some of the more pronounced decreases with bigger drops in Lahaina and Ka’anapali.

• A number of communities that did not see sales in 2021 experienced activity in 2022. Notably, there were 5 sales in Haiku and 3 in Makawao this year.
• Days on Market decreased substantially on homes sold over $2,000,000. This year, the average sale is closing in 127 days. That is 29% less time on market than last year’s 179 days.
• Competition in this market place is up significantly. Of the homes that sold for $2,000,000 or above, 57.44% closed for asking price or higher. That is well above the 16.67% that sold for asking price or above during the same period of 2021.
• It is notable that the three highest priced home sales all closed for their full asking price.

Maui Luxury Condo Market 2022 Sales Numbers

• Maui Realtors reported 71 condos sold for $1,500,000 or higher as of March 21st. That is up almost 34% from the 53 sold during the same period of 2021.
• Of the 71 sales, 7 sold for $5,000,000 or more as of Match 21st. That is up slightly from the 6 that sold during the same period last year.
• The Ka’anapali Condo market stands out for the significant increase in sales activity compared to other Maui markets. The Napili and Kahana market also experienced a notable increase.

• Other markets saw less drastic annual changes with Lahaina and Kapalua repeating last year’s numbers and Wailea and Makena down slightly.
• A big reason for Ka’anapali’s increased activity is due to activity at Honua Kai. Honua Kai saw 12 sales after just 4 last year.
• Days on market decreased quite a bit for high end condos. The average of 67 days on market is 54% lower than the average of 145 days on market in early 2021. It is worth noting, that long term new developer sales are excluded from calculations for both years. These are contracts signed pre-construction, but do not close until 2-3 years later when construction is completed.
• Competition for luxury condos also increased. Of the 71 condos sold, 63.4% sold for asking price or above. That compares to 39.6% last year.

Some Takeaway from the Luxury Home and Condo Numbers

Volume may be down for homes, but that is more a function of reduced supply vs. decreased demand. The lower days on market and number of homes selling for at or above listing price support the notion of sustained demand and a more competitive market.

The impact of decreased inventory is also evident at the community level where places like Wailea and Makena are seeing lower sales volume due to decreased inventory. The Ka’anapali market and to an extent the Lahaina market are seeing lower sales for a few reasons. 1. Inventory is down at the lower price points of the luxury home market. 2. Some of the homes going under contract are “spec” houses with completion dates later in the year. Finally, some of the sellers are pushing the envelope on pricing. I mentioned the Lanikeha subdivision in Ka’anapali specifically in volume I of the market musings. The bulk of the inventory in that neighborhood is priced well above previous neighborhood high sales. To be fair, a couple of the higher priced homes have gone under contract since my post. That said, there are still quite a few homes available.

The increase in activity in new markets is also due to a combination of factors. We are seeing some homes selling above $2,000,000 due in part to appreciation. With price increases year over year ranging between 10 and 20 percent, some of last year’s below $2,000,000 sales are going for more money. Another factor is just plain old variability. Places like Haiku and Makawao both saw an increase in $2,000,000 sales over the last 4 years. It’s just that early 2021 was quieter in those communities. We are also seeing some luxury buyers expand their search outside the resort markets due to the lack of inventory.

The increase in activity in the condo market is largely due to better inventory selection compared to the luxury single family home market. That said, not all markets have an abundance of inventory. The Wailea and Makena area have lower inventory and it is reflected in the lower sales volume. We can see the impact of decreased inventory in some area of the luxury condo market in both the decreased days on market and the higher percentage of condos selling at or above asking price.

End of Safe Travels and the Mask Mandate

March 25th was the last day of the Hawaii Safe Travels program. Travelers coming to Hawaii will no longer need proof of vaccination or a negative covid test prior to arrival. It is also the last day of the indoor mask mandate in Hawaii. There are still requirements to wear masks on planes, buses, public schools and the airport.

Interest Rate Increases Don’t Seem to be Slowing the Market Around the Country

While keeping tabs on the local market, it’s also worth keeping an eye on national trends. This is particularly the case in the current market as interest rates hit heights we haven’t seen over the last few years. The folks over at Altos Research have good access to pending sales data around the country. That gives you a little better sense of current market conditions than what you would get by just looking at sales data. Here is their video overview of the most recent data and it’s worth a watch.

 Watch this video on YouTube.

If you don’t have the time to watch, here are a few quick notes. Inventory ticked up again although pending sales and pricing both appear to be strong. They are watching closely to see if the recent rates are impacting buyers. While they aren’t seeing any data to really suggest a change in market conditions, they spoke to a few things they are looking for that might indicate a potential slow down from the current frenzy. They mentioned listening for anecdotal signs of less active bidding wars. Altos suggested keeping an eye out for an increase on cancelled transactions and an increase in cancelled new developer contracts. Again, they haven’t seen that in the national data yet.

For what it’s worth, they aren’t expecting any seismic shifts in the market other than moderation of the current activity. The caveat being that a more significant shift could occur if interest rates were to settle over 5%.

Interestingly, there were a few more cancelled contracts on the Maui MLS last week. I am hesitant to read too much into the cancellations at this point. While it might be related to the rise in rates, it could also be a coincidence. It is something to watch a little more closely going forward.

A Little Bit of Maui Beauty

It was another beautiful morning on Maui today. I thought it was worth sharing this photo from Baldwin Beach with the West Maui Mountains in all of their glory.

A sunny way to start the week. 🏖️ pic.twitter.com/HJFdlTgngM

— HAWAI'I Magazine (@HAWAIIMagazine) March 28, 2022

Contact The Maui Real Estate Team

Have questions on anything in this post? Need assistance buying or selling property on island? Just want to talk about a specific part of the market? Contact The Maui Real Estate Team. We look forward to being of assistance.

As we move into the middle of October, a lot of new pending sales shows buyer demand for the Maui Real Estate market remains strong. Closed transaction took another anomalous dip. While new inventory ticked up again led by new condo listings. Keep reading for all of the numbers for October 14th-20th.

This Week’s Pending Sales

Maui Realtors reported 61 new pending sales over the six day period between October 14th and October 20th. That is approximately a 2% increase over the seven days prior. It is 15% more activity than the same period of 2019.

Notable Numbers From This Week’s Pending Sales

• This is the fourth straight week of 60 or more new pending sales
• The 61 new pending sales included 28 homes, 27 condos and 6 lots.
• Of the 27 condo pendings, 17 are located in developments that allow vacation rentals.
• The high end market continues to see heightened levels of activity. Six homes and one condo priced over $2,000,000 went under contract this week.

This Week’s Closed Transactions

Maui Realtors reported 37 properties sold over the seven day period between October 14th and October 20th. This is 36% below the prior seven days. It is 26% below the same seven days of 2019. The low sales numbers were driven largely by a lack of single family home sales. Only 11 homes closed.

I have to say the sales numbers make me scratch my head a little. Dating back to mid-July, the lowest weekly pending sales number is 51. Since the start of September, there have been four weeks with 42 sales or less. We are seeing a few properties fall out of escrow, but not enough to quite explain the difference between pending and sales.

This Week’s New Inventory

Maui Realtors listed 87 properties between October 14th and 20th. This is a 45% increase over last week. It is 14% higher than the same seven days of 2019.

Last week, I asked the question as to whether we might see more condo owners decide to bring their property to market with visitors back on island. The answer to that question is a resounding yes. The 53 condos that came to market is the highest weekly total since the last week of August. The next question is whether we continue to see higher levels of condo inventory going to market or if the surge is limited to immediately around the reopening.

The 53 new condo listings is well over the 27 that went under contract over the same period. After a couple of weeks of slower inventory growth, the condo inventory jumped again. This is going to be really interesting to follow the inventory over the next few weeks. As asked above, will we see a lot of new listings? On the other end of the spectrum, might we see an increase in demand for vacation rental condos with visitors/potential buyers back on island.

The 26 new home listings is less than the 28 new pending home sales. This means another modest decrease in inventory. As with recent weeks, the decrease in inventory is particularly pronounced at lower price points with few home listings coming to market under $800,000. The median price of the new home listings this week came in at $1,422,500. The average price of the new home listings is $2,373,125. Limited inventory and strong buyer demand is pushing up home values in many of the markets around the island.

The land inventory saw another modest increase with 8 new listings compared to 6 new pending sales. Overall, inventory in the land market seems to be pretty steady. If anything, pricing seems to be increasing modestly in a number of markets around the island. This is particularly the case Upcountry and in Haiku. Those markets are seeing more activity.

Contact The Maui Real Estate Team

Market activity remains very strong on island. Buyer demand is fueled by two separate dynamics. Local buyers with steady employment are taking advantage of very low interest rates. There is also a healthy pool of off island buyers who are relocating to the island. The work from anywhere ethos is causing a fair number of people to make the move to Maui. Contact The Maui Real Estate Team if you are thinking of buying or selling property on island. We are working hard to bring our clients success in these dynamic market conditions. We look forward to talking and learning more about your real estate needs.

Pending Sales Hit a High Since the Start of Covid and Other Notable Numbers

The only thing we can expect at this point is the unexpected. True words when it comes to the state of the world. While Maui is a lot less turbulent than much of the world, these words resonate as I comb through the data from the latest seven day tracking period. Weekly new pending sales were the highest since the start of Covid-19. Closed transactions were again surprisingly lower. New listings are down a little from the week prior. Keep reading for more details on this week’s numbers.

This Week’s New Pending Sales

Maui Realtors reported 67 new pending sales over the seven day period between September 23rd and September 29th. That is 16% increase over the previous seven days. That is 29% higher than the same seven day period of 2019. After a month of pretty consistent activity between 52 and 60 pending sales, this is a pretty healthy bump in activity. Late September isn’t the time of year when you would expect the busiest week for new transactions over the last six months.

Notable Numbers from This Week’s Pending Sales

• The 67 pending sales included 25 homes, 37 condos and 5 lots.
• The 37 pending condo sales is the highest weekly total since I started tracking activity during Covid-19. I have to say that the bump in condo activity is unexpected. I know there is some anticipation among Realtors that vacation rental condo activity might pick up when tourism starts to reopen on October 15th.
• Of the 37 pending condo sales, 19 are located in developments that allow vacation rentals. This means that the stronger pending sales are almost equal parts non-vacation rental and vacation rental condos.
• Demand for land is pretty steady albeit a couple pending sales a week slower than what we saw in late July and August.
• The luxury market continues to see strong activity. This week 5 homes and 3 condos priced for more than $2,000,000 went under contract.

This Week’s Sales Activity

Maui Realtors reported 42 sales over the seven day period between September 23rd and September 29th. That is a 13.5% increase over the 7 days prior. It is 28% lower than the same seven day period of 2019. This is the second week in a row of quieter sales. These two weeks remain something of anomaly with no significant dip in pending sales over the last two months to drive the lower sales. It is worth noting that there was a pretty healthy bump in closed transaction right after this tracking period on September 30th and October 1st. Expect higher sales in the next update.

This Week’s Volume of New Inventory

Maui Realtors brought 79 properties to market in the seven day period between September 23rd and September 29th. That is a 5% decrease from the seven days prior. It is 7% lower than the same seven day period of 2019.

Once again, condos comprised the greatest portion of the new listings to come to market. There were 43 new condo listings over this seven day period. While pending sales were up over this period, this marks another net increase in active condo inventory.

While new home inventory is down from last week, it is still the second biggest week for new home listings since July. This is also the second week in a row where new listings exceeded pending sales resulting in a net increase in inventory. As with last week, buyers looking at lower price points may not have noticed the increase. The median price of new home listings is over $1,000,000 and the average price is over $2,000,000. In the scheme of things, the slight increase in inventory over the last two weeks is pretty negligible in the scheme of things. The overall supply of single family homes for sale remains limited.

There was another modest uptick in land inventory this week. With inventory still relatively tight, I can’t see any big changes in the land market forthcoming.

Contact The Maui Real Estate Team

Market conditions remain surprisingly resilient. Personally, buyers I represented were in a couple of bidding wars for homes over the last ten days. While that isn’t uncommon with properties around and below the island’s median sales price, these multi offer situations were at higher price points. That marks a shift.

There is still variability in market conditions by location, property type and price point. Under these circumstances, quality representation and market knowledge is important. Contact The Maui Real Estate Team if you are considering buying or selling property on Maui. We look forward to learning about your real estate needs and offering our assistance and expertise.

The Maui Real Estate market concluded another pretty busy seven day period between July 29th and August 4. It was the third busiest week for new pending sales during Covid-19. Sales activity was the strongest since the end of March. While new inventory was up this week, that increase wasn’t uniform across all property types. Keep reading for more details and numbers.

This Week’s New Pending Sales

Maui Realtors reported 57 new pending sales over the seven day period between July 29th and August 4th. That is a 7% decrease from last week and 14% higher than the same seven day period of 2019. This is the second week in a row when pending sales this year exceeded the same seven day period of 2019. It is only the third time this has happened during Covid-19.

Notable Numbers from This Week’s Pending Sales

• The 57 new pending sales include 21 homes, 29 condos and 7 lots.
• Demand for homes is outpacing demand for condos through most of the pandemic. Over the last month, condo activity seems to be picking up while home sales are down a little. I can’t give a definitive reason why, but I surmise scarce home inventory could be a factor.
• Of the 29 new pending condo sales, 19 are in complexes that allow vacation rentals.
• Two homes listed for over $2,000,000 went under contract this week.
• The demand for land remains consistent on a weekly basis. This week there were 7 new pending lot sales. Over the last six weeks, we are averaging 6 new pendings per week.

This Week’s Closed Real Estate Transactions

Maui Realtors reported 65 sales over the seven day period between July 29th and August 4th. That is a 59% increase over last week and down 8.5% from the same seven day period of 2019. This is the busiest week for sales since the last week of March. The higher sales numbers are reflecting the increased buyer activity in June. The numbers also received a boost from ten sales in new developments. Nine of those sales are from contracts written in 2019. One sale at Makena Golf and Beach Club goes all the way back to a contract agreed upon in 2017.

This Week’s New Inventory

Maui Realtors brought 72 properties to market in the last week. That is 26.3% more than last week. It is 9% lower than what came on the market during the same seven day period of 2019.

Once again, more new condo inventory came to market than any other property type. The 43 new condo listings exceeds the 29 that went pending in the last week. The difference between new condo inventory and condo pending sales isn’t quite as drastic as it was a month or so ago, but there is still a net increase in condo inventory.

As mentioned over the last couple of weeks, the increase in inventory isn’t occurring in all parts of the condo market. It is more pronounced in some vacation rental friendly condo developments and the entry level non-vacation rental developments in Kihei. We are starting to see the impact of increased inventory as some sellers are reducing prices below recent comparable sales.

There were 23 new home listings between July 29th and August 4th. That is slightly above the 21 homes that went pending. The inventory of homes for sale on island remains limited overall. The limited inventory supports and in some cases means upward pressure on current home values depending on location and price point.

Between July 29th and August 4th, 6 land listings came to market. That is less than the 7 lots that went under contract over the same period. Inventory in the land market grew over the first few months of the pandemic. Over the last month or more, inventory stabilized. Pricing for land across most of the island is stable to slightly up depending on location and price point.

Contact The Maui Real Estate Team

While the situation in the world remains wildly unpredictable, the national real estate market remains resilient. While that is true for Maui in general, we are seeing potential signs of market bifurcation. Some parts of the market remain strong while others are starting to soften. We continue to monitor the island’s various market segments closely. Contact the Maui Real Estate Team if you are considering buying or selling property on Maui. We welcome the chance to learn about your needs and offer our market expertise.

Buyer activity in the Maui Real Estate market is inching closer to pre-pandemic levels. As the influence of slower buyer demand in April wanes, sales numbers are improving. On the supply side, more sellers appear to be reentering the market now that things are opening up on island. Find out more details about this week’s Maui Real Estate activity below.

New Pending Real Estate Sales

Maui Realtors reported 54 new pending sales over the seven day period between June 10th and June 16th. That is a 13% increase over last week’s pending sales. It is just 4% below the same seven day period last year.

After a dip in mid-May, this is three straight weeks of increased pending sales. The headwinds of high unemployment and extremely limited visitor numbers are not significantly constraining buyer demand at this time.

This Week’s Notable Numbers from the Pending Real Estate Sales

• The 54 new pending sales consisted of 28 pending home sales, 24 pending condo sales and 2 pending lot sales.
• The 28 pending home sales equals a weekly high total during the pandemic. The 24 pending condo sales is the highest number since the start of the pandemic.
• The condo market continues to see more activity from second home buyers with vacation rentals accounting for 16 of 24 condo pending sales.
• The land market is not seeing a clear uptick in activity. The 2 pending lot sales are in line with typical Covid-19 levels of buyer demand. Including this week, Maui County is averaging 1.833 pending lot sales every seven days since March 25th.

This Week’s Closed Real Estate Transactions

Maui Realtors reported 34 sales between June 10th and 16th. This is a 212.5% increase in sales volume from the week prior. It is 23% below the closed transactions for the same seven day period of 2019. It is important to remember that sales are a lagging indicator of buyer demand. As we get further and further away from the slowest periods of buyer demand in early to mid April, we should continue to see a rise in closed deals.

This Week’s New Listings

Maui Realtors listed 78 properties between June 10th and June 16th. That is a 1% increase in new listings over the week prior. It is 5% lower than the same seven day period of 2019. I noticed a few listings that were pulled from the market earlier in the pandemic coming back again this week. Whether it is due to the very limited cases of Covid-19 on island or improved market conditions, some sellers that withdrew earlier are deciding to dip their toes back into the market.

Breaking it down by property type, new condo listings are outpacing new home listings. That has been the case for most weeks of the pandemic. Condo inventory was low prior to Covid-19 so there is room for the market to absorb some additional inventory. After the tight inventory pre-Covid, buyers will likely welcome a few more options on the market. The increase in inventory is also not universal. While some individual complexes are seeing more inventory, it remains limited in others. The balance between supply and demand in different parts of the condo market will be worth monitoring over the months ahead.

The inventory of homes increased over the last couple of months, but at a much slower pace. Over the last seven days pending home sales actually outpaced new listings by one. This is one of a handful of weeks since the start of the pandemic when pending home sales outpaced new home listings on a weekly basis.

Contact The Maui Real Estate Team

While the market conditions on Maui appear to be improving, it still isn’t quite back to normal. We are also seeing some varying levels of supply and demand between different market segments. Now more than ever, it makes sense to have quality representation if you are a buyer or seller. Contact The Maui Real Estate Team if you are thinking about buying or selling property on Maui. We look forward to learning about your needs and being of assistance.