Maui Real Estate Blog

Maui Real Estate Musings Volume XII

The latest edition of Maui Real Estate Musings is coming from the road. While I may be on the mainland, I still have an eye and ear on the Maui Real Estate Market. Volume XII addresses the elephant in the room from last week’s real estate news. As promised in Musings XI, there is also a review of end of May inventory numbers by district and price point. Finally, we take a quick look at the percentage of active home and condo inventory with price reductions. Without further ado, and so I can get back to hanging out with the in-laws, here is musings volume XII.

The Elephant in The Room

The elephant in the room of course is interest rates. Interest rates on the 30 year fixed mortgage spiked to over 6.2 percent last week. Stronger than expected inflation numbers for May and the resulting anticipation of sharper increases in the Federal Funds rate fueled a strong spike in mortgage rates. This is a significant difference in borrowing costs from interest rates below 3% a year ago.

Prior rate increases this year pushed some buyers out of the market. Needless to say, it is likely that this recent rate increase will further thin the pool of financed buyers. Those that do stay in the market, will be able to afford less home. It is possible that we see a brief uptick in activity in the market as buyers who locked in lower rates feel heightened urgency to purchase. Conversely, the shift in rates may cause a more immediate slow down in demand. We shall see how it plays out.

Of course, the smaller pool of buyers and less purchasing power from financed buyers will cause other impacts to the market. Lesser demand will likely lead to growing inventory. Keep in mind, we are still experiencing inventory numbers well below normal. How quickly and how much inventory grows is something of an unknown. The other thing we are likely to see is price reductions. A lot of sellers on the market initially entered the market at prices that assumed continued rapid appreciation. With less demand and less competition, many sellers will need to adjust expectations and pricing.

End of May Inventory Levels

The Realtors Association of Maui tracks end of month inventory levels island wide for homes and condos. We report on those numbers regularly. I took it a step further documenting inventory levels by district and price point on the island. The numbers are meant to serve as a baseline for future comparisons. It is a means to track changes in inventory among different market segments. That said, there is some interesting information to be gleaned from just the May numbers. They show some of the recent variability in inventory levels and market conditions based on both geography and price point.

End of May Home Inventory

ActivePending
Haiku1512
Hana53
Ka’anapali136
Kahului1124
Kapalua42
Kihei2725
Kula2412
Lahaina1515
Makawao1117
Napili/Kahana…125
Pukalani512
Sprecks/Paia124
Wailea85
Wailuku2832

End of May Home Inventory by Price Point

ActivePending
<$750,000622
$750,000-$999,9991954
$1,000,000-$1,499,9994337
$1,500,000-$1,999,9993027
$2,000,000-$3,000,0003714
$3,000,000-$4,999,9992411
$5,000,000-$9,999,999228
$10,000,000-$19,999,99992
$20,000,000+31

End of May Home Inventory Takeaways

  • Kahului has the lowest ratio of active listings to pending listings with 11 active listings compared to 24 pendings.
  • Kula and Paia have the highest ratio of active home listings to pending sales.
  • The ratio of pending sales to active sales is higher in districts with more lower priced options and less second home activity. There is stronger demand and more competition for lower priced primary residences.
  • The ratio of pending listings to active listings by price point corroborates the point above. The number of active listings is a small fraction of the pending listings below $1,000,000. There are no homes in the resort markets below $1,000,000.
  • With the exception of the $1,500,000 to $1,999,999 range, the higher you go in price point, the the ratio of active listings to pending sales increases.
  • While the resort communities have more active listings than pending sales, the inventory in these communities remains limited.
  • The same can be said for higher price points. With the exception of the highest price points, inventory is still well below normal in the $2,000,000 to $5,000,000 range.

End of May Condo Inventory by District

ActivePending
Ka’anapali2323
Kahului58
Kapalua715
Kihei3595
Lahaina148
Ma’alaea35
Napili/Kahana/Honokowai3439
Pukalani00
Wailea1691
Wailuku911

End of May Condo Inventory by Price Point

ActivePending
<$250,00059
$250,000-$499,9991223
$500,000-$749,9991855
$750,000-$999,9992954
$1,000,000-$1,499,9992349
$1,500,000-$1,999,9992134
$2,000,000-$2,999,9991940
$3,000,000-$4,999,9991222
$5,000,000-$9,999,99977
$10,000,000+30

End of May Condo Inventory Takeaways

  • First things first, there is an important thing to note in the pending condo numbers. They include 75 pending sales in La’i Loa at Wailea Hills. This development is under construction and the bulk of the contracts were signed in the second half of 2020 and the first quarter of 2021. These pending sales skew the numbers for Wailea and the price points between $1,500,000 and $4,999,999.
  • The Kihei Condo market numbers reflect its frenzied state over the last 12 months. This includes both vacation rental and non-vacation rental properties. Supply appears to be well below demand.
  • The price points between $500,000 and $1,500,000 have the highest ratio of pending sales to active listings.
  • The $5,000,000 to $9,000,000 range shows a lot less active inventory vs recent demand compared to the single family homes in this range.
  • Lahaina is notable as the only district with more active condo listings than pending listings.
  • Overall, the condo market inventory numbers reflect more scarcity and higher activity across the board than the home market.

A Few Final Thoughts on the Inventory Numbers

This data is lagging behind a few weeks at this point. I will be posting the numbers for the end of this month shortly after the first of July. I suspect we will see increases in inventory across a number of districts and price points. Another “flaw” to this analysis is that it lacks a baseline of comparison to historical numbers. Unfortunately, old Realtors Association of Maui statistics track monthly sales and not active inventory. I wish we had a “normal” number for districts and price points. I am going to need to rely on anecdotal observations as to what seems normal for active listings.

Price Reductions

I did want to look at one statistics that gives more of a current look at market conditions. Price reductions give us some sense of demand and how sellers are currently responding to shifts in demand. As of June 22nd, 32.4% of active home listings reduced their price. That is up from 29.5% on June 7th. It is still a little below May 24th when 33% of all active home listings reduced below listing price. For condos, 22.5% of the active inventory reduced their price as of June 22nd. That is up from June 7th and May 24th when 20.9% and 18.2% of the active inventory reduced prices respectively.

Some Maui Beauty To Brighten Your Day

This week’s beautiful Maui tweet comes with a bonus link to an article on South Maui Summer Activities.

Wrapping Things Up

It’s clear that market conditions are changing. A few quick final thoughts for sellers and buyers. Sellers, it is pretty clear the market is a lot different than it was 6 months or even 3 months ago. If your list prices were aspirational, price adjustments may be necessary to get in line with the market. Less competition means less leverage when it comes to negotiations. For buyers, the reverse is true and you may start to have an opportunity to negotiate. There is more opportunity for due diligence and there may be some more choice available to you. The trade off for financed buyers is more purchasing power.

With changing market conditions, quality representation remains as important as ever. Contact The Maui Real Estate Team to discuss your real estate needs. We look forward to being of assistance.

Pete Jalbert

Maui Real Estate Blog

Maui Market Musings Volume XI

Once again it’s time for another edition of Maui Market Musings. Your almost weekly source for the latest and greatest Maui Real Estate Statistics and market observations. The musings are also rumored to cure insomnia for those that have no interest in real estate. Although, we need to go through clinical trials before we can make that claim officially. This edition of the musings looks at notable numbers from the May stats and a few statistics that point towards current market conditions.

Notable Numbers from the May Maui Statistics

I looked through the latest statistics from the Realtor’s Association of Maui (RAM) and did a little number crunching of my own. The numbers below represent some of the more interesting items from the May Sales activity on Maui. They are just for the island of Maui. RAM’s stats include sales on Lanai and Molokai.

May Home Sales

  • Maui Realtors reported 93 home sales on Maui. That is down 20% from last year’s 116 sales.
  • While increased mortgage rates in March and April likely impacted sales, low inventory remains a factor too. The end of the month inventory of active home listings between February and April averaged about 15% below the same period of 2021.
  • While we may be seeing lower sales numbers, competition for the available inventory remained robust. Of the homes that sold, 35.48% sold for over asking price and 61.29% sold for asking price or above.
  • That is quite a bit stronger than last May when 25.86% sold for above asking price and 50.86% sold for asking price or higher. It is also higher than April when 32.35% sold for over asking price and 55.88% sold for asking price or above.
  • The median price of homes sold in May is $1,225,000. That is 20% higher than the May 2021 median home sale price.
  • The increase in median is a reflection of both price appreciation and a lack of inventory at lower price points. There were only 8 homes sold on island for less than $800,000 last month. The May prior, 37 homes sold for less than $800,000.
  • The average price of homes sold in May 2022 came out to $2,309,049. That is a 34% increase over last May’s median of $1,724,917.
  • Strong activity in the luxury home market drove the high average price. Two homes sold for over $20,000,000. Six total homes sold for more than $5,000,000. Twenty-seven homes sold for over $2,000,000.
  • The high sale for the month closed for $26,490,700. For that sum, the new owners acquired a home with 10,500 sf of living space, 8 beds, 8 baths, 3 kitchens, along with a separate pool house with room for guests, a six car garage and a caretaker’s quarters. The property is situated on an acre across the street from the ocean in Makena. This was the highest priced home to sell for the year to date.

May Condo Sales

  • Maui Realtors reported 144 condo sales in May. That is 39% lower than the 237 sold in May of 2021.
  • As with homes, increased mortgage rates may be tempering demand, but inventory is also impacting sales volume. The average number of active condo listings at the end of the month from February through April averaged about 56% less than the same period of 2021.
  • While demand may be lower, the limited supply continues to make for a competitive market. Of the condos sold, 31.94% sold for over asking price in May. An impressive 66.67% sold for asking or above.
  • That is a lot higher than the numbers from May 2021 when 15.28% sold for over asking price and 42.68% sold for asking price or above. The number of properties selling for above asking price in May 22 is down a little from April 22. That said, the percentage selling for asking price or above is higher.
  • The median price of condos sold in April is $747,000. That is 21.46% higher than last April’s median.
  • The average sales price for the condos sold in April came out to $1,136,318. This is 13.68% higher than the average price in April 2021.
  • Luxury condo transactions remain strong with one sale over $10,000,000, 3 over $5,000,000 and 22 sold for $1,500,000 or higher.
  • The highest price condo sale for the month closed for $11,900,000. That buyer now owns a 3 bedroom, 4 bathroom condo with 2,814 square feet of living space at the Andaz Residences Wailea.

Current Market Indicators

If you are long term reader of our stats post, you will know the familiar refrain that sales are a lagging indicator. We wanted to look at just a few stats that might give a better sense of current market conditions.

As noted repeatedly in the May sales stats, inventory, or lack thereof, remains a big driver in our market. On the last day of May, there were 213 active home listings in Maui County. That is a 7.5% increase from 198 listings at the end of April. On the last day of May, there were 175 active condo listings. That is just 1.7% above the 172 on the last day of April.

Nationally, the inventory of homes for sale rose 25% from April to May. Maui is clearly lagging behind the mainland when it comes to changes in inventory. That said, as noted in Market Musings X, any increase in inventory on Maui at this time of the year goes against pre-Covid trends. Inventory dropped on Maui between the last day of April and the last day of May in 2017, 2018 and 2019.

We also continue to track the number of properties going under contract within the first ten days of coming to market. Of the 55 homes and condos listed between May 18th-25th, 17 or 34.54% of the new listings went under contract within the first ten days of going on the market. That is a slight decline from the 35.55% between May 7th and 14th. It is down substantially from the 56% we reported in mid-February. For comparison to Pre-Covid days, 23.8% of listings that went to market between May 18th-May 25th, 2019 went under contract in the first ten days.

The one last metric we are trying to track is price reductions. The number of active home listings with price reductions is sitting at 29.5%. This is down from May 24th when 33% of active home listings reduced their price at least once. Of the active condo listings, 20.9% reduced their price one or more times. That is up from the 18.2% of active condo listings that reduced their price on May 24th.

A Couple of Thoughts on The Numbers

One number that stood out is the decrease in the number of price reductions among the active home listings . Prior to calculating the numbers, I expected to see an increase in price reductions for active home listings. Anecdotally, it seems like there are more price decreases. So why the lower number? Without doing a deep dig into the recent pending sales, I suspect that price reductions are proving to be effective. People overshooting the market initially are able to find the market via price adjustments.

Overall, the numbers above point to a market that while cooler than this winter, still remains resilient. The shifts in the market are gradual and not drastic. Inventory numbers well below normal combine with existing levels of demand to create conditions that are still more competitive than a “normal” Maui market.

While the numbers show some of the variability in the market between homes and condos, they don’t show the variability by geography and price point. On May 31st, I went through the end of the month inventory for homes and condos and broke it down by geography and price point. The purpose of the exercise wasn’t so much for this post but to create a baseline for future analysis trying to track potential shifts in inventory and demand at a district and price point level. That said, there is pretty clearly some variability evident. This post is getting a little long already so I will save my findings for the next edition of the Musings. The one immediate takeaway is that sellers will likely want to talk to their Realtor about conditions specific to their segment of the market when determining pricing and negotiation strategies.

The Obligatory Maui Photo Tweet to Brighten This Blog Post

Contact The Maui Real Estate Team

Contact the Maui Real Estate Team if you have any questions about this post or if you need assistance buying or selling Maui Real Estate. We look forward to hearing from you and discussing your real estate needs.

Pete Jalbert

Maui Real Estate Blog

Maui Market Musings Volume IX

It’s May on Maui and time for another Market Musings. This week is a little bit more of a meat and potatoes affair as we look at notable numbers from the April Statistics and try to get a better pulse on current market conditions. National Real Estate numbers are showing signs of slightly slower activity due to current interest rates. It feels like we may be feeling something similar on Maui. Do the numbers support my anecdotal feelings? Keep reading to find out what I discovered.

Notable Numbers From the April Statistics

The April statistics are out and they speak to the strong buyer demand in January-March. I compiled these numbers using sales just from the island of Maui. I filtered out Molokai and Lanai.

Home Sales

  • Maui Realtors reported 101 home sales. That is down 22% from last year’s 129 sales.
  • Tighter inventory is a significant factor in the decreased sales numbers. At the end of April, the Realtors Association of Maui reported 176 homes on the market. That is 24% lower than last year at this time and 15% lower than the end of March 2022.
  • Competition remained high for the limited inventory. Of the homes sold, 34% sold for over asking price and 56% sold for asking price or higher.
  • That’s stronger than last April’s numbers of 26% over asking and 53% for asking price and above, but lower than March 2022’s 35% sold for over asking and 59% sold for asking or higher.
  • The median price of the homes sold was $1,250,000. That represents a significant 28% increase over last April’s median of $975,000.
  • The increase in median can be attributed in part to price increases and also limited inventory at lower price points. Only 8 homes sold for less than $800,000 in the month of April.
  • The average price of the homes sold was $2,189,247. That is a more modest increase of 8% over last April’s average of $2,015,101.
  • The high average prices are due to robust luxury market activity. Three homes sold for $10,000,000 or higher. A total of 9 homes sold for more than $5,000,000 and 25 for more than $2,000,000.
  • The highest priced home closed for $18,750,000. That was for a 4,800 square foot luxury home with a 600 square foot cottage on just over a half acre right on Keawakapu Beach in South Kihei.

Condo Sales

  • Maui Realtors Reported 168 condos sold in April. That is down 36% from April of 2021.
  • Inventory played a big part in the decreased activity compared to the year prior. There were only 158 condos on the market at the end of April. That is 50% of the number for sale at the end of April 2021 and 6% below the end of March 2022.
  • As with homes, competition for condos on the market remained high. Of the condos sold, 41% sold for over asking and 62% sold for asking price or above.
  • That is a substantial increase over last April’s numbers of 9% sold over asking and 36% sold for asking price or above, but a little lower than March when 43% sold for over asking and 70% sold for asking price or above.
  • The median price of condos sold in April is $857,500. That is 23% higher than the median in April 2021.
  • Average sales price for a Maui condo in April comes in at $1,223,669. That is 28% higher than the median in April 2021.
  • Like the luxury home market, the luxury condo market remained busy. That helped boost the average condo sales price. There was a single condo sale over $10,000,000. Four condos sold for over $5,000,000 and 34 condos sold for $1,500,000 or higher.
  • The highest priced condo closed for $12,000,000. That was for a ground floor 3 bedroom in the D building at Wailea Beach Villas.

What’s Happening Now?

Sales Statistics look backwards. As mentioned above, the strong April numbers reflect buyer demand from February, March and to a limited extent Early April. Since that time, Interest rates broke the 5% barrier and we transitioned out of peak tourist season.

The one relevant statistic to the present is inventory. Supply was lower at the end of April than it was at the end of March. The first five days of the month did not bring a torrent of new inventory. That’s one area where we differ from the overall national market. The National inventory of homes for sale slowly increased during the spring with healthier gains over the last week. Plain and simple, the supply side of the Maui market remains severely constrained.

What about demand? There are suggestions in the the April stats that demand has been cooling slightly. Over asking sales prices and full price sales both decreased from March. Is there anything we can tease out from the current inventory?

In Market Musings Volume 8, we looked at the percentage of new listings going under contract in 10 days or less between April 6th and 13th. It came in at 46%. Between April 19th and April 26th, 35 out of 82 listings are under contract in 10 days or less. That is roughly 43%. It is worth noting 2 additional properties went under contract only to cancel escrow.

While I don’t have a basis for past comparison, I also looked at price reductions in the market. Out of the 160 active home listings on May 5th, 59 or 37% reduced their price . Of the 130 active condo listings, 19 or right around 15% reduced their price. This can be a baseline of comparison for future Musings.

Variable Conditions

I saw the quote below and had to work into a Musings. It was such a good analogy. I could practically feel the blister forming on the roof of my mouth from a Hot Pocket I consumed in 1991.

It also resonated with me as I watched the hot sheet over the last ten days. It sure seemed like not all parts of the Maui Real Estate Market are at the same level of frothiness. That’s clearly the case when comparing homes to condos. Condos have less inventory and far fewer price reductions overall.

Within the home market, I looked at the price reductions and sorted them by community. Kula and Haiku have the highest percentage of active inventory that’s dropped their price one or more times. They both clock in with 42% of the active inventory having dropped their price.

While this validates some of my expectations. I will say this is something of a flawed metric. While Haiku has had quite a few price reductions, there are only 13 active listings. Well priced properties can still sell pretty quickly. On the other end of the spectrum only 8% of the active inventory in Ka’anapali made a price reduction to date. That would seem to suggest strong demand. That said, the average days on market for the active Ka’anapali listings exceeds 100 days.

Overall, the market remains pretty darn strong and inventory remains really low, but there is a hint of nuance to things. Some parts of the market still feel hot like earlier this winter, others are just warm. The slight cooling likely can be attributed to the significant rise in mortgages rates. Rates continue to rise slowly and other economic headwinds like the recent stock market plunge could threaten demand. Will decreased demand change the trajectory of the market or will the low inventory continue to be the determining factor in market conditions? I will keep you posted in future editions.

A Side of Maui Beauty With the Stats

A Beautiful View from one of my favorite places to grab a bite to eat in Lahaina.

Contact The Maui Real Estate Team

Dynamic market conditions call for quality, experienced representation. Contact The Maui Real Estate Team if you are considering buying or selling Maui Real Estate. We look forward to learning about your real estate needs.

Pete Jalbert

Maui Real Estate Blog

Maui Market Musings Vol. I

Welcome to Maui Market Musings! This is a new feature that I hope to post weekly or at least every other week. This is going to be something of a grab bag post where I hit on a variety of topics relevant to the Maui Real Estate market and beyond.

January Statistics

The first month of the year is done and dusted and that means the Realtor Association of Maui January stats are out. Here are some numbers worth highlighting.

  • Pending Home and Condo sales decreased in January compared to January of 2021 by 21.3 and 31.3% respectively.
  • The decrease in activity is due largely to decreased supplies. The volume of homes and condos for sale are down 34.6% and 75.8%. As it stands, there is about 1.8 months of home inventory and .8 months of condo inventory on the market. Six months supply is typical of a balanced market.
  • The limited supply is translating into upward price pressure. The median home price increased 18.1% compared to last January and the median condo price rose 26.3%. Those numbers aren’t an exact reflection of changes in property values compared to last January as the composition and price point of properties sold is going to have an impact. That said, it is safe to say that prices are up substantially.
  • Limited supply is meaning that properties are selling faster. Days on market for homes decreased 26.8% compared to last January. Days on market for condos decreased 39.9%.
  • Current market conditions also mean that properties are selling for a higher percentage of list price. On average homes are selling for 100% of list price and condos are selling for 100.1% of list price.

What Does This Mean for Buyers and Sellers?

How are these numbers translating to what we are seeing first hand in the market? We listed a nice home in Haiku last week. Within that first week, we showed the property just over 20 times, received 12 offers and went under contract for well over asking price.

Buyers should expect that properties priced close to market will attract multiple offers. The buyers winning these bidding wars are being aggressive in some cases going well over asking price and waiving some if not all contingencies. Sellers who price close to market can expect a lot of showing activity with their home.

The pricing close to market component is important. While some buyers are really reaching, some sellers may be overshooting the market. We are seeing this in particular with some higher priced parts of the market. Last year, twelve homes sold in the Lanikeha subdivision. The average sales price for the twelve homes was $2,942,347 and the median price was $2,879,500. As of right now, there are seven active listings, no pending sales and no sales. The average price of the $5,439,714 and a median price of $5,200,000. Only one of the seven listings is priced below last year’s high sale for the neighborhood. While the year is young, this is one area where homes are currently sitting.

The inventory crunch, short days on market and rising prices are not unique to Maui. This is a national trend. Mike Simonsen of Altos Research tracks this on a weekly basis and he reported new national lows for inventory last week.

It’s worth reading through Mike’s whole thread. He also touches on Interest rates. Speaking of rates…

Rising Interest Rates

Mike’s thread mentions the impact of rates on the market. On a national level, the market appears to be relatively unfazed by the raise in rates. It hasn’t been insubstantial. Talking to one Maui lender today, she indicated rates are up .5 to .6 percent over the lat 45 days and .35% in just the last 15 days. With rates predicted to rise further, it will be interesting to watch the market overall and the lower price points in particular. Maui residents are already struggling with affordability.

The Vacation Rental Condo Market

One of the stronger areas of the Maui market is vacation rental condos. Low inventory and strong demand is pushing prices up. Last week, I came upon an an analysis that claimed Maui is the best market for vacation rental investments in 2022. I have to say, I question that analysis. There is no doubt Maui is a desirable place to own a vacation rental condo, but that isn’t based on rental returns. It seems if anything that the vacation rental market is doing well in spite of rental returns. While rental rates are going up, they aren’t quite keeping up with appreciation. Buyers looking at proformas for vacation rental condos are finding mostly 2-3% CAP rates. It seems like more buyers are looking at their condos as use assets where income helps to defer a portion of the costs.

Last Day for Hoku’ula Lottery Registration

Tomorrow is the last day to register for the Hoku’ula market rate housing lottery . This Upcountry subdivision will bring a significant amount of new inventory to market over the next year. There are already 98 workforce housing homes under contract with 98 market units coming. The price point for the homes available range from $1,285,000 to $1,650,000. The neighborhood offers good views, new construction, and about as convenient an Upcountry location as you could find.

Contact The Maui Real Estate Team

We hope this first edition of the Maui Market Musings offer some insight into current conditions. Contact The Maui Real Estate Team if there are any subjects you want us to touch on or if you need assistance. We look forward to being of service.

Pete Jalbert

Maui Real Estate Blog

September 2021 Kula Real Estate Market Update

Once again, it’s time to check in on market conditions for another community on Maui. Let’s head Upcountry and look at the Kula real estate market. Kula spans a vast geographic area along the Western Flank of Haleakala. It runs from roughly 1,200 feet in elevation up to 4,000 feet. From an MLS perspective it includes smaller communities like Keokea, Ulupalakua and Kanaio. Kula is an agricultural hub of Maui with a number of fruit, flower and vegetable farms dotting the landscape as well as some larger livestock operations. Homes range from modest plantation style homes on rural or residential lots to substantial estates on big acreage. This post looks at market activity for the year to date as well as a few thoughts on the market outlook.

Notable Numbers from this Year’s Kula Home Sales

  • As of September 13th, 65 homes sold in Kula during 2021. That is a 33% increase over the 49 sold during the same period of 2020.
  • The median price of the homes sold in Kula during 2021 is $1,225,000. The average price of the homes sold is $1,521,778. The median price and average price are up 28% and 38% respectively compared to the same period of 2020.
  • Fifty-seven percent of the homes sold in Kula this year closed for asking price or higher.
  • The highest priced home to sell this year closed for $9,200,000. Home doesn’t quite do the property justice. The sale included two lots totaling 23 acres, two extra large water meters, a 7,809 square foot main house, a pool, a detached 7 car garage and a second 2,712 square foot home. This is the highest ever sales price for a residential property in Kula.
  • This was one of 13 sales over $2,000,000 for the year to date. That compares to 3 during the same period of 2020.
A property in Kula represented by the Maui Real Estate Team that closed for $2,680,000 in June.
This home and cottage on 2 acres closed for $2,680,000 in June. The seller was represented by the Maui Real Estate Team, Inc.

Thoughts on the Kula Home Market for the Year to Date

Like the rest of the island, the Kula home market experienced robust activity over the year to date. Demand was high while supply remained low. Based on the rate of sales, there were 3.3 months supply of home inventory in January. After that, it dropped as low as 2.1 months supply in April and has yet to climb above 3 months supply again. Strong demand and limited supply helped to boost prices significantly. The question is how much? The change in average price and median price don’t just reflect shifts in value. They also reflect an increase in activity at higher price points in the market. Sales of homes over $2,000,000 increased 433% compared to 2020.

Outlook for The Kula Home Market for the Rest of the Year

It’s the classic push pull of supply and demand that should be in play for the rest of the year. At this point, it appears as if demand remains strong. We started unofficially tracking a new metric in our office over the last few weeks. We are looking at how quickly new listings are going under contract. With a high number of properties going under contract in less than a week, it is pretty clear that demand is still pretty strong. The question is whether we might see any relief with new inventory. While inventory is slowly increasing on the mainland, it remains near all time lows in Kula and Maui in general.

The Kula Land Market

Kula is an area of the island where you tend to see more land sales. A handful of new developments over the last few years and smaller subdivisions usually translates into a healthy supply. This year, increased buyer activity put a serious dent in inventory numbers.

Notable Numbers from the Kula Land Market

  • As of September 13th, Maui Realtors reported 35 land sales for the year. That is up 21% from the 26 sales over the same period of 2020.
  • The median sales price of the lots sold is $930,000. The average sales price is $1,058,473. The median price increased 206% from the median of $450,000 during the same period of 2020. The average price increased 24% compared to last year’s average of $853,148.
  • The lowest priced transaction closed for $350,000. That was for a 1/2 acre lot without water.
  • The highest priced lot to sell closed for $4,500,000. That parcel in lower Kula included 148 acres of land.
  • That was one of 11 lots to sell for more than $1,000,000. By comparison, there was just one lot that sold for $1,000,000 or more during the same period of 2020. That one sale was a large land acquisition by the state of Hawaii.

Kula Land Market Activity and Outlook

The Kula land market mirrored many of the other places around the island in terms of market activity for the year to date. Higher demand, shrinking supplies and rising prices. The increase in higher priced sales was another particularly notable aspect of this year’s activity. As mentioned above, there was just the one sale over $1,000,000 in 2020 compared to the 11 sold thus far this year. Seven more properties listed for $1,000,000 show as pending on the MLS. This constitutes a massive increase in demand for higher end properties in Kula.

A lot of the higher end sales activity occurred in the Kula I’o subdivision. This gated community of 2.5 acre-25 acre lots experienced modest sales activity the first couple of years on the market. The development benefited from this year’s increased high end sales activity with 15 closes ranging in sales price between $830,000 and $1,650,000. At this point, most of the developer’s lots in Kula I’o are sold or pending. That said, I imagine we will see resales and CPR lots in the future.

It’s important to keep the increased higher end activity in mind when looking at the big shift in median and average prices. While limited supply and increased demand led to rising values, the 206% increase in median price is largely a reflection of the increased sales activity with high end lots. While the big land, big view lots in Kula I’o heavily influenced the average and median price in 2021. The big driver in 2020 was a subdivision with half acre lots in the $450,000-$500,000 price point.

Moving forward, inventory or lack thereof is going to be the big market driver for the rest of the year. Unless there is a big influx of new inventory, I can’t anticipate a lot of sales activity. If demand remains relatively strong, I anticipate that the combination of demand and low inventory will mean continued upward pressure on pricing.

Contact The Maui Real Estate Team

The Maui Real Estate Team works extensively in the Kula market. Contact The Maui Real Estate Team if you are interested in property in Kula. We would welcome the chance to discuss the market and learn more about your real estate interests and needs. You can search the active inventory of Kula Homes for Sale and Kula Land for Sale on MauiRealEstate.com.

Pete Jalbert

Maui Real Estate Blog

November 11th Weekly Maui Real Estate Market Update

As the calendar flipped from October to November, buyer demand remained strong on Maui. The seven day period between October 28th and November 3rd is the sixth in a row with 60 or greater new pending sales. Closed transactions were solid over this period. Meanwhile, new inventory for the week increased. Keep reading below for more details.

This chart shows weekly new pending sales in Maui County by property type. The chart starts in late February/early March right as the global impact of Covid started to become apparent. It runs through November third.
This chart shows weekly pending sales in Maui County by property type. It runs from right before Covid-19 started to impact the Maui Real Estate market up until November 3rd. New pending sales are the best indicator of current market demand.

Maui Realtors reported 63 new pending sales between October 28th and November 3rd. That is a 7% decrease from the seven days prior. It is 43% more activity than the same seven day period of 2019.

Notable Numbers from This Week’s Pending Sales

  • This week’s new pending sales include 19 homes, 37 condos and 7 lots.
  • Of the 37 condos, 21 are located in developments that allow vacation rentals. Three more condos are resort area condos in complexes that prohibit vacation rentals.
  • Compared to recent weeks, the high end market was quieter with 3 properties with asking prices in excess of $2,000,000 going under contract.

This Week’s Closed Transactions

This chart shows weekly closed transactions by property type in Maui County. The time period runs from late February up through November 3rd.
This chart shows weekly closed transactions by property type in Maui County during the Covid-19 era. Sales are a lagging inventory of buyer demand in the market.

Maui Realtors reported 58 sales over the seven day period between October 28th and November 3rd. This is a 5% increase over the seven days prior. It is 15% less sales activity than the same seven day period of 2019.

This Week’s New Inventory

This chart shows weekly new Maui Real Estate listings by property type. The chart runs from late February through November 3rd.
This chart shows weekly new listings by property type in Maui County, Hawaii.

Maui Realtors brought 74 new listings to market over the seven day period between the 28th and the 3rd. That is roughly a 40% increase over the seven days prior. It is a 14% drop from the same seven day period of 2019.

There are 47 new condo listings that came to market over this period. While the 37 condos that went under contract during the week ties the Covid-19 era weekly high, the inventory increased thanks to this wave of new listings. The condo market is in something of a state of flux. For three of the last five weeks, we saw a net decrease in inventory. Stronger demand combined with fewer condos coming to market. We also saw a couple of weeks like this one when a large number of new listings hit the market.

At this point, I would say condo inventory trends are uncertain. Will we see a higher number of new listings go to market as we get closer to what is our traditional peak buyer season? What type of a peak buyer/visitor season will we have with a rapid increase of Covid cases on the mainland?

Only 23 new home listings came to market between the 28th and the 3rd. That still represents a very modest boost in inventory when compared to the 19 homes that went pending. The median price of the new listings also slipped well below $1,000,000 for the first time in a while. The median price of $744,900 is due in large part of a number of new listings in the new Upcountry subdivision Kua’aina Mauka. Regardless, the home inventory remains very limited on the island.

Only 4 new land listings came to market over this seven day period. This represents a net decrease in land inventory with 7 lots going under contract during the same period.

Contact The Maui Real Estate Team

As we get further into fall, the Maui Real Estate market continues to chug along with strong buyer demand. Limited inventory remains a big factor in the single family home market. The condo market has far greater supplies of inventory, but condo buyer activity also increased over the month. Contact the Maui Real Estate Team if you are thinking of buying or selling property on Maui. We are working hard to bring our buyers and sellers success in these dynamic market conditions. We would welcome the opportunity to earn your business and help you navigate the market.

Pete Jalbert