Maui Real Estate Blog
September 2022 Paia Real Estate Market Update
Keep Austin Weird. Keep Portland Weird. Keep Paia weird. Yes, it’s time to check in on market conditions in Maui’s quirky North Shore beachtown. The Paia real estate market is doing it’s best to keep things strange with market behavior different this year compared to most other Maui communities.
This update focuses only on Paia and Kuau. Our local MLS lumps these areas together with the Spreckelsville neighborhood. We think that these markets are different enough that they merit their own discussions. If interested, we did a Spreckelsville update earlier this summer.
Notable Numbers from the 2022 Paia Real Estate Market
- As of September 19th, Maui Realtors reported 12 home sales and 1 condo sale during 2022. By comparison, there were 22 home sales and 3 condo sales during the same period of 2021. That is a 45% decrease in home sale activity. There were 12 home sales and 3 condo sales during the same period of 2019.
- Of the 12 homes sold this year, 3 homes sold for over asking price and one sold for full price. That is 33% of the inventory selling for asking or above. Last year, 6 homes sold for above asking price and 6 sold for full price. That is 54.5% selling for asking price or above. In 2019, no homes sold for over asking price while just under 42% sold for full price.
- Of the 12 homes that sold, 6 sold for cash. The listing realtor for the one Kuau condo sale also reported it to be cash transaction.
- The median price of homes sold in Paia is $969,999. That is 7.8% higher than last year’s median of $900,000 and 45.5% lower than the 2019 median of $1,411,562. Note, this is a classic case of how changes in median prices don’t necessarily reflect changes in values, particularly in a small market. Needless to say, prices rose substantially since 2019.
- The average sales price of the homes sold in 2022 is $969,166. That is 56.73% lower than the 2021 average of $2,239,886. It is 28.31% lower than 2019 average of $1,310,010.
- The lowest priced home sale for the year to date closed for $650,000. The 3 bedroom, 1 bathroom home with 1,440 square feet of living space on a 6,604 square foot lot is located in the Paia Halelani subdivision. It’s worth noting that the home needed significant repairs and updates when purchased.
- The highest priced sale in Paia for the year to date closed for $1,445,000. The 3 bedroom, 2.5 bathroom home with 1,512 square feet of living space is located on a 6,094 square foot lot in Kuau Bayview. It sold before hitting the MLS.
- Skill Village showed the most year to date sales activity of any neighborhood in Paia with 5 sales. Paia Halealani and Kuau came next with 2 sales each.
- The one condo sale in Kuau Plaza this year closed for $700,000. The one bedroom, one bath unit set a new all time record high in the complex. That’s particularly noteworthy since the previous high sale from last year is a 2 bedroom.
Making Sense of The Numbers
Maybe I am leaning into the weird theme a little too much. Paia’s sales activity compared to last year shows some similarity to a lot of other communities on island. Lower sales volume is common throughout the island due to both inventory constraints and slackening demand. There are really two numbers in Paia and Kuau that stand out as being unusual. The average sales price and the high home sales price both caught the eye. Both are well below not just 2021 numbers, but also 2019 sales numbers.
You can attribute both the average sales price and the low high sales priced to a lack of activity in the high end market. During the same period last year, there were 8 transactions that closed for more than this year’s high sale. That includes 3 sales for $8,000,000 or more. So what’s driving the lack of luxury market activity? Is it inventory? Is it demand? A combination of the two or something else?
Let’s look at the inventory side of things first. At first glance, inventory does not appear to be an issue. The list price of 5 out of 7 current active listings is over $2,000,000. All of those listings have over 100 days on market. Four additional listings over $2,000,000 were on the market in Paia this year but subsequently withdrawn. That could speak to lack of demand, but little to no high end demand goes against the grain compared to other high end market around the island.
Assessing demand isn’t straight forward. There may be buyers shopping for properties in this price range, but if the inventory in question or the price of the inventory in question does not appeal to the market, you aren’t going to see that demand reflected in the stats.
Let’s look at Paia and Kuau oceanfront activity. Last year, there were three sales on the water as of September 19th including 2 sales for $8,000,000 or above. Those transactions were two of the three highest priced sales in Paia and Kuau to date. High end buyers in the market for Paia or Kuau oceanfront had two oceanfront options this year. Both properties listed well above the all time high sales price.
Now, it certainly isn’t outside the realm of possibility to set new high prices in the current market. That said, it’s not too hard to make a case that the list price for both properties is well above market. The one listing, currently off the market, sold in 2021 for $5,200,000. Without significant improvements, the seller relisted for 90% higher than what they paid a year earlier. The other listing is now on the market for the 13th time since 2005. With now almost 3,000 days on market, you can safely say the market is providing some feedback on the list price.
Based on the above, it seems like some of the owners of Paia and Kuau’s higher priced listings may need to sharpen their pencils if they want to find the market. It’s worth noting that there is one listing for over $2,000,000 under contract. 2012 was the last year where there were no sales over $2,000,000 in Paia or Kuau.
Outlook for the Rest of the Year and Early 2023
Including the one pending transaction noted above, there are three total pending sales in Paia and Kuau at this time. So there should be at least some sales activity to close out the year. The question is what other market activity can we expect in Paia and Kuau. I look at recent demand for new listings, inventory and seasonality to try to get some sense of what we might expect the rest of the year.
When gauging current demand in a community, I like to look at the percentage of properties that go under contract within 10 days of coming to market. I will be honest, I am somewhat wary of how effective this metric is for a community like Paia and Kuau just due to the low sample size. Only two listings came to the market since August 1. One went under contract within 10 days, the other went under contract within a month. That would appear to suggest that there is still some demand out there, but again small sample size.
The available inventory is likely to be a limiting factor for activity. With just seven total listings, no listings under $1,000,000 and all active listings on the market for more than 100 days, it would seem activity will likely need to come via a combination price adjustments, negotiations or new inventory.
Last thing I wanted to look at is seasonality in the Paia and Kuau area. The chart above shows pending sales in the area by month over the last five years. While the first half of the year tends to be busier than the last quarter, December is typically a good month for sales activity in Paia. We shall see if that’s the case this year.
One last thing to note, recent interest rate hikes add head winds to the current market. While the Paia market is a little less exposed due to the percentage of cash transactions, the rate increases will impact affordability for financed buyers.
Contact The Maui Real Estate Team
Our office is located in Paia just off Baldwin Avenue. Needless to say, we keep close tabs on the Paia market. Contact The Maui Real Estate Team for assistance buying or selling property in the Paia area. We leverage our local knowledge, experience and connections to provide quality representation. Check out our Paia Real Estate Page to look at current inventory and to search by neighborhood.
Maui Real Estate Blog
Maui Real Estate Musings Volume XII
The latest edition of Maui Real Estate Musings is coming from the road. While I may be on the mainland, I still have an eye and ear on the Maui Real Estate Market. Volume XII addresses the elephant in the room from last week’s real estate news. As promised in Musings XI, there is also a review of end of May inventory numbers by district and price point. Finally, we take a quick look at the percentage of active home and condo inventory with price reductions. Without further ado, and so I can get back to hanging out with the in-laws, here is musings volume XII.
The Elephant in The Room
The elephant in the room of course is interest rates. Interest rates on the 30 year fixed mortgage spiked to over 6.2 percent last week. Stronger than expected inflation numbers for May and the resulting anticipation of sharper increases in the Federal Funds rate fueled a strong spike in mortgage rates. This is a significant difference in borrowing costs from interest rates below 3% a year ago.
Prior rate increases this year pushed some buyers out of the market. Needless to say, it is likely that this recent rate increase will further thin the pool of financed buyers. Those that do stay in the market, will be able to afford less home. It is possible that we see a brief uptick in activity in the market as buyers who locked in lower rates feel heightened urgency to purchase. Conversely, the shift in rates may cause a more immediate slow down in demand. We shall see how it plays out.
Of course, the smaller pool of buyers and less purchasing power from financed buyers will cause other impacts to the market. Lesser demand will likely lead to growing inventory. Keep in mind, we are still experiencing inventory numbers well below normal. How quickly and how much inventory grows is something of an unknown. The other thing we are likely to see is price reductions. A lot of sellers on the market initially entered the market at prices that assumed continued rapid appreciation. With less demand and less competition, many sellers will need to adjust expectations and pricing.
End of May Inventory Levels
The Realtors Association of Maui tracks end of month inventory levels island wide for homes and condos. We report on those numbers regularly. I took it a step further documenting inventory levels by district and price point on the island. The numbers are meant to serve as a baseline for future comparisons. It is a means to track changes in inventory among different market segments. That said, there is some interesting information to be gleaned from just the May numbers. They show some of the recent variability in inventory levels and market conditions based on both geography and price point.
End of May Home Inventory
End of May Home Inventory by Price Point
End of May Home Inventory Takeaways
- Kahului has the lowest ratio of active listings to pending listings with 11 active listings compared to 24 pendings.
- Kula and Paia have the highest ratio of active home listings to pending sales.
- The ratio of pending sales to active sales is higher in districts with more lower priced options and less second home activity. There is stronger demand and more competition for lower priced primary residences.
- The ratio of pending listings to active listings by price point corroborates the point above. The number of active listings is a small fraction of the pending listings below $1,000,000. There are no homes in the resort markets below $1,000,000.
- With the exception of the $1,500,000 to $1,999,999 range, the higher you go in price point, the the ratio of active listings to pending sales increases.
- While the resort communities have more active listings than pending sales, the inventory in these communities remains limited.
- The same can be said for higher price points. With the exception of the highest price points, inventory is still well below normal in the $2,000,000 to $5,000,000 range.
End of May Condo Inventory by District
End of May Condo Inventory by Price Point
End of May Condo Inventory Takeaways
- First things first, there is an important thing to note in the pending condo numbers. They include 75 pending sales in La’i Loa at Wailea Hills. This development is under construction and the bulk of the contracts were signed in the second half of 2020 and the first quarter of 2021. These pending sales skew the numbers for Wailea and the price points between $1,500,000 and $4,999,999.
- The Kihei Condo market numbers reflect its frenzied state over the last 12 months. This includes both vacation rental and non-vacation rental properties. Supply appears to be well below demand.
- The price points between $500,000 and $1,500,000 have the highest ratio of pending sales to active listings.
- The $5,000,000 to $9,000,000 range shows a lot less active inventory vs recent demand compared to the single family homes in this range.
- Lahaina is notable as the only district with more active condo listings than pending listings.
- Overall, the condo market inventory numbers reflect more scarcity and higher activity across the board than the home market.
A Few Final Thoughts on the Inventory Numbers
This data is lagging behind a few weeks at this point. I will be posting the numbers for the end of this month shortly after the first of July. I suspect we will see increases in inventory across a number of districts and price points. Another “flaw” to this analysis is that it lacks a baseline of comparison to historical numbers. Unfortunately, old Realtors Association of Maui statistics track monthly sales and not active inventory. I wish we had a “normal” number for districts and price points. I am going to need to rely on anecdotal observations as to what seems normal for active listings.
I did want to look at one statistics that gives more of a current look at market conditions. Price reductions give us some sense of demand and how sellers are currently responding to shifts in demand. As of June 22nd, 32.4% of active home listings reduced their price. That is up from 29.5% on June 7th. It is still a little below May 24th when 33% of all active home listings reduced below listing price. For condos, 22.5% of the active inventory reduced their price as of June 22nd. That is up from June 7th and May 24th when 20.9% and 18.2% of the active inventory reduced prices respectively.
Some Maui Beauty To Brighten Your Day
This week’s beautiful Maui tweet comes with a bonus link to an article on South Maui Summer Activities.
Wrapping Things Up
It’s clear that market conditions are changing. A few quick final thoughts for sellers and buyers. Sellers, it is pretty clear the market is a lot different than it was 6 months or even 3 months ago. If your list prices were aspirational, price adjustments may be necessary to get in line with the market. Less competition means less leverage when it comes to negotiations. For buyers, the reverse is true and you may start to have an opportunity to negotiate. There is more opportunity for due diligence and there may be some more choice available to you. The trade off for financed buyers is more purchasing power.
With changing market conditions, quality representation remains as important as ever. Contact The Maui Real Estate Team to discuss your real estate needs. We look forward to being of assistance.
Maui Real Estate Blog
August 2018 Paia Real Estate Market Update
As we approach the end of August, I thought this would be a good time to check in on the Paia Real Estate market. We already looked at the Spreckelsville neighborhood last week. This post will look at just Paia and Kuau. Paia has been a strong market due to high demand and constrained supplies. Hemmed in by cane fields, there have been no new subdivisions in the community since back in 2003. Over that time, Paia has continued to grow in prominence and popularity. People have sought out the North Shore town due to its proximity to North Shore wind and wave sports, natural beauty, preponderance of wellness related business and plantation town charm.
With no real growth in housing inventory and increased demand, pricing in the community has been on an upward trajectory since 2011. With limited plans for future development on the immediate horizon, the ingredients are in place for continued upward pressure on prices over the long term. This post looks at real estate activity in the community for the year to date and the outlook for the rest of 2018.
The map above shows real estate activity in Paia during 2018. The red pins represent sales while the yellow pins represent pending sales. You can click on individual pins to learn more about the individual properties. It is worth noting that the map above and the numbers below exclude the Spreckelsville neighborhood. Traditionally, the local Realtor Association lumps Spreckeslville in with Paia in our MLS.
Notable Paia Real Estate Numbers for the Year to Date
- There have been 17 homes sold as of August 18, 2018 with four homes currently under contract. Last year there were 11 homes sold over that same period of time. That is a 54% increase in sales volume.
- The median sales price for homes during this period is $615,000. The average price over this period is $1,154,610. Over the same period last year, the median price was 700K with an average price of $1,591,045. That is a 13% drop in median price and a 27% drop in average price.
- The high sales price for the year to date is $6,350,000 for a house and cottage on just under an acre of oceanfront land.
- The low sale for the year to date is $377,000 for a short sale in Skill Village. It is worth noting that the 2 bedroom, 1 bath home went under contract all the way back in February of 2017.
- There were two condos that sold at Kuau Plaza for the year to date with one more pending sale. The high sale is $375,000 for a remodeled one bedroom, one bath. This is above average activity for this small vacation rentable condo complex.
- There was one bank owned sale and two short sales among the seventeen sales in Paia this year. These are still properties being processed through the system from the last real estate downturn.
Thoughts on the Overall Activity to Date in Paia
The numbers above show a healthy bump in sales activity and a pretty sizable decrease in median and average prices compared to last year. These changes are not due to an increase in demand or a decreased value. Instead, it is a reflection of an increase in supply. For the first seven months of the year, Paia had a respite from the worst of the supply crunch. The more notable increase in supply came at the lower price points in the market. While the inventory for buyers under $650,000 remained relatively thin, it was a lot better than what was available last year. We even saw a few sales under $500,000. Unfortunately, the lowest priced inventory wasn’t that accessible to first time buyers as the condition of two of the three homes required cash buyers. The third was a home that had gone under contract all the way back in February of 2017. While Paia is a small community, it has a pretty diverse housing stock. The paragraphs below look at the sales activity in specific neighborhoods in Paia and Kuau.
Paia Halelani is a neighborhood located a few streets past the intersection of Hana Highway and Baldwin Avenue on the Mauka side of Hana Highway. It has had very little turnover in the last few years with no sales since 2015. During 2015, we saw record high sales for the neighborhood. This year, there have been two sales and both were priced under $500,000. That said, this is not a reflection of values dipping. Both homes were in poor condition requiring cash buyers.
Skill Village is located off of Baldwin Avenue about a mile above the intersection of Baldwin and Makawao Avenue. The neighborhood of modest homes sees more turnover than most parts of Paia. That said, 2017 proved to be pretty quiet year for sales with only 2 sales through Mid August. In 2018, much of the increase in Paia market activity can be attributed to a resurgence in Skill Village sales. There have been a total of 9 sales in the neighborhood this year. That is an impressive 450% increase. Skill Village also smashed its all time sales record this year with a close of $800,000. It is worth noting that this larger home was formerly owned by a building contractor who made significant upgrades to the finishing of the property.
Kuau Bayview is another neighborhood that experienced an increase in sales through the middle of August. After only two sales in all of 2017, there have been four sales this year. Three of the four sales were noteworthy. We saw the first ever $1,000,000 sale in the neighborhood, the highest sales price for a home that backs on to Hana Highway and the highest ever cost per square foot sale. It is clear that Kuau Bayview remains an in demand neighborhood for Paia buyers.
While not a neighborhood per say, I did want to look at the sales activity for Paia Oceanfront Homes. There have been two sales this year. One for a home on Nalu Place on Paia Bay. The other home was further East from downtown on Lae Place. The large oceanfront lot of just under one acre has a home and a cottage. That property has exchanged hands three times in the last ten years. The two sales to date this year equals the same number as last year through the same period of time. There is one other oceanfront home currently under contract.
Paia Outlook for the Rest of 2018
While the Paia market saw volume increase due to an increase in inventory over the last seven and a half months, the remainder of the year may see limited sales due to shrinking inventory. There are eight listings in Paia and Kuau currently with four of the eight homes under contract. While the pending sales will help to pad the year to date totals, buyers are going to find limited choices unless some additional homes come to market. You can see the current inventory of Paia Real Estate listings on MauiRealEstate.com. Contact the Maui Real Estate Team if you are thinking of buying or selling a property in Paia. We would welcome the chance to be of assistance.
Maui Real Estate Blog
Paia Real Estate 2013 Midyear Market Update
This is the third post in our series of articles looking at the Maui Real Estate market midway through the year. We have already published a midyear Maui Real Estate market update and a Haiku Market update. Today, we are taking a glance at the Paia real estate market. Paia is situated on the North Shore of the island and is known throughout the world as a mecca of wind and water sports. Athletes from all over the world are drawn to the combination of wind and waves that make this a premier destination for windsurfing, kiteboarding, stand up paddling, surfing and big wave surfing. You don’t have to be a big wave rider to enjoy Paia Town. The town has a bohemian vibe, great shopping, good Yoga facilities, very good restaurants, natural beauty, the best little heath food store on the planet, proximity to good schools and a better sense of community than the resort areas on the island.
The Paia Real Estate market consists of three geographic areas. Going from West to East, the Spreckelsville Neighborhood runs from right next to the airport all the way to Baldwin Beach. It is home to the Maui Country Club and three main beaches. The community is an ideal gateway for the beach lifestyle with a good walking beach, windsurfing, kiting, surfing, body boarding and SUP. Many residents own golf carts so they can bring all their toys down to the beach. Real estate options include executive homes near and on the golf course, two acre compounds with beach access, beachfront estates and the North Shore’s only luxury condominiums. Heading further east, you get to Paia town proper. Paia town is an eclectic mix of older plantation homes, 1970s and 1980s vintage entry level homes, newer town homes in North Shore Village and a smattering of beach and oceanfront homes. As you head past Paia town towards Mama’s Fish House, you get to the Kuau area. Kuau includes the neighborhood of Kuau Bayview, an interesting mix of homes on the Mauka (Mountain Side) of Hana Highway and more high end homes along the Makai (ocean) side of Hana Highway.
The numbers below include information on sales volumes and median sales prices in the Paia area for the first six months of the year. I also included some other noteworthy numbers I came across along the way while compiling these stats. These are followed by a look at how the sales broke down by price point, the current state of the market and what we might expect for the rest of 2013.
During the first six months of 2013, realtors reported 14 home sales in Paia with a median price of $678,500. During the first half of 2012, there were sixteen sales reported with a median price of $457,500. That is a 12.5% drop in sales volume and a 48% increase in median price.
There were three condo sales reported in Paia during the first six months of 2013. There was only one condo sale during the first half of 2012.
There were three land sales reported in Paia during the first half of 2013. No land sales were reported in Paia during the first six months of 2012.
While compiling the numbers above, I came upon a number of other facts and figures about the Paia Market during the first half of 2013 that I thought were worth sharing.
- The highest sale in Paia for the first half of the year was $5,500,000 for an older home on almost an acre of oceanfront land. My understanding is that this was more of a land purchase than a home sale as the buyer intends to tear down the existing older homes on the property and build a larger estate home.
- There was one other sale over $1,000,000 during this time frame and it was another big deal. An estate property across the street from Tavares Bay sold for $4,600,000.
- In addition to the home sales, there was one other big land sale in Paia to start the year. An 18,875 square foot lot right on Tavares Bay sold for $2,300,000.
- Kuau Bayview was the busiest neighborhood in the Paia area with four total closes. It also saw the strongest signs of price appreciation with a new all time high sales price and a couple of other sales notable for their high price considering location and/or home size.
- On the other end of the spectrum, Spreckelsville saw no sales during the first half of the year. Anecdotal evidence would suggest this might be a case of variability verses the neighborhood falling out of favor. I know of a couple of listings that had heavy showing activity and received offers.
- If there was one number that really grabbed me, it was that six of the fourteen sales were properties that were not listed on the MLS. Buyers were doing some digging to find properties with the inventory of homes on the market under $1,000,000 limited.
- There weren’t many distressed sellers on the market in 2013. There was only one short sale that was completed and there were no bank owned sales during the first six months of 2013.
It was an interesting first half of the year for the Paia market. At first blush, the decrease in home sales might suggest diminished demand. That being said, I think the case can be made that it wasn’t demand that was lacking as much as quality inventory. We can see that by the number of homes that were sold that were unlisted. Buyers had to scrounge for unlisted properties under $1,000,000 to meet their needs. Pricing was a mixed bag. Properties under $1,000,000 saw varying levels of upward price pressure depending on the neighborhood. Skill Village saw modest appreciation despite limited inventory. North Shore Village sales are infrequent, but the most recent sales were well over the last sale in 2011. Kuau Bayview saw signs of significant appreciation. A new record sales price was established. There was also the second highest sale on a cost per square foot basis and the highest sale for a home abutting Hana Highway.
The luxury market was a little less clear cut than entry and middle levels of the Paia market. The two big sales were both noteworthy. The high sale was the third highest sale in Paia history. It is particularly notable in that the home is a tear down. The buyers paid a healthy sum for arguably the best piece of land in the Kuau area. The second highest sale of the first six months of 2013 was the highest ever sales price for a non-oceanfront home. Beyond that luxury home sales were relatively quiet particularly in the $1,000,000-$2,000,000 range. I don’t think this was due to a lack of interest as much as it was just the variability in the market and the inability of sellers and buyers to find a common sales price.
The land and condo market both saw upticks in activity during the first half of 2013. After seeing little interest for at least a year, Kuau Plaza started to garner interest from the market place in the second half of 2012 and we saw three sales in the first half of 2013. There is never a whole lot of activity in the Paia land market. The reason being that there is very little vacant land in the community. Three sales is pretty busy for a six month span by Paia standards.
Looking at the current inventory of Paia Real Estate listings, the inventory options under $1,000,000 remain pretty limited. The chart below shows the distribution of properties by price point. The Blue Bars represent sales during the first half of the year and give some sense of market demand. The green bars represent pending and contingent listings. The red bars represent active listings.
The map below gives a sense of the geographic distribution of recent sales, current pending sales and active listings. The map also includes land and condo listings. Clicking on the individual pins on the map will bring up property details. If you click on the link below the map, it will bring it up as a separate page with additional detail on the all of the properties on the map.
View Paia Real Estate Sales 2013 in a larger map
As it stands, there is a pretty good inventory of homes to choose from in the higher price ranges while the options under $1,000,000 remain limited with only three active listings in the Skill Village neighborhood. Of note, two of the skill village listings are listed for near peak market prices. While Kuau Bayview has seen that type of price increase, we haven’t seen as strong a demand for Skill Village to date. With so little inventory available, it will be interesting to watch the market feedback for these properties.
Now that we have a better sense of what is available in the current market, I wanted to give my thoughts on what me might expect for the Paia market for the rest of 2013 via the video commentary below.
Contact The Maui Real Estate Team with questions or for additional information. Paia is where our office is located and it also happens to be the home of three members of the Maui Real Estate Team. We know the community like it is our backyard. We would welcome the opportunity to sit down with potential Paia buyers and sellers for a free consultation. You can find all of the current active Paia Real Estate Listings and Spreckelsville Real Estate Listings on MauiRealEstate.com.
Maui Real Estate Blog
Paia Real Estate 2012 Market Report and 2013 Outlook
In the third installment of our community market reports, I wanted to take a look at how the Paia market performed in 2012. By comparing last year’s sales to the current inventory, we also hope to provide some thoughts on the outlook for the 2013 Paia Real Estate Market. Paia is a North Shore community known for its access to water sports and bohemian vibe. Kama’aina and second home owners also love the great restaurants and shops. The town is gaining in national recognition with everything from New York Times articles on art galleries to Coastal Living’s recent selection of Paia as one of the ten happiest seaside towns in America. When talking about the Paia Real Estate market, we are including Paia and the associated communities of Spreckelsville and Kuau. We did a market report on Spreckelsville already, but we are also including the Spreckelsville data in this Paia report. During 2012, we saw modest improvements in the Paia market with a few more closes over what we saw in 2011. One might argue that we may have seen more closes if there was more quality inventory available. The lack of inventory in Paia clearly represents a challenge for the 2013 as well.
There were 29 homes sold in Paia during 2012 at a median price of $580,000. By comparison the 2011 sales totals were 26 home sales with a median price of $597,000. That means that there was a 12% increase in sales volume and a 3% decrease in median prices.
There was one condo sold at Kuau Plaza in 2012. That was a two bedroom unit that closed for $260,000. There were no condo sales in Paia during 2011. It was an off market sale (the condo was not listed on the MLS, however a Realtor assisted) and the unit was a 3rd floor unit with some upgrades.
There were two vacant lots sold in the Paia area during 2012. That is a slight uptick from 2011 when there was only one sale of vacant land. Overall there is a general scarcity of vacant land in Paia.
Here are a few other notes about the Paia market in 2012.
- There were three bank owned homes that closed in Paia in 2012. That is down from the five that closed in 2011.
- There were four short sale closes in 2012. That is equal to the 2011 numbers for Short Sale activity.
- The high sale in the Paia area was $2,520,000 for a beachfront home in Spreckelsville. This was the only oceanfront sale in the Paia area in 2012.
- There were six sales over $1,500,000 in the Paia area this year. One was in Kuau and the rest were in Spreckelsville.
There were signs of a recuperating Paia Real Estate market in 2012. The uptick in sales volume was modest, but this is also a relatively small market. As I mentioned in the first paragraph of this post, I would argue that a lack of inventory curtailed the growth of the market more than anything else. While I have no quantitative evidence to support this assertion, here are the two main reasons why I think the market could have absorbed additional inventory. 1. Well priced properties in Paia were generating bidding wars. 2. Buyers were digging hard to find unlisted opportunities. There were six sales of unlisted properties during the second half of 2012.
While there was some healthy activity over $1,000,000, the ultra luxury market was comparatively quiet. There were eight properties listed over $2,500,000 with only one that went under contract. That is in line with the overall market trends on island which saw a down year for luxury home and condo sales.
What does 2013 hold in store for the Paia Real Estate Market? Inventory is going to play a big part in the current market. If you look at the chart below, I compared the current inventory of active homes for sale in Paia vs. the 2012 sales. The chart does not include pending sales.
There is a relative shortage of properties in almost all price ranges under $1,000,000. There are very few entry level homes on the market and there is even less in the middle. There are no active Kuau Bayview listings, but there are two listings and one unlisted property currently under contract in that neighborhood. One of the listings under contract was priced well above recent comparable sales. Any new inventory in Kuau Bayview or North Shore Village would be well received in the market place. The relative scarcity of properties at the low end and the middle is likely to generate some upward price pressure in Paia. The one million to two million price range has a decent balance of inventory. There appears to be enough supply to meet the typical demand of buyers in this price segment. That being said, this was a segment of the market that had strong activity in the second half of 2012 with many buyers seeking out unlisted properties. The biggest selection of properties for buyers is above $2,500,000. While this was a quiet segment for activity in 2012, there are signs of life in this part of the market already this year. There are currently two properties priced over $5,000,000 in Paia that have gone under contract (pending sales) for the first of the year. While it will be hard for the market to come close to sustaining that pace, it sets the stage for a stronger 2013 in the Paia Luxury market.
The condo and land markets will always be relatively quiet due to limited inventory. There is only one active land listing in Spreckelsville at this time. The Paia and the Kuau area just don’t have much left in terms of vacant land. For Paia condo buyers, there are a couple of listings at Kuau Plaza currently. I would suspect those may get more interest with the lack of low end housing inventory and overall interest in Paia. The only other condo complex in the Paia area is Sugar Cove. This luxury beachfront complex tends to have limited inventory due to low turnover.
If you are interested in this great North Shore community, you can check out the current inventory of Paia Real Estate Listings. We also have a page specifically for Spreckelsville Real Estate Listings. We would also welcome the opportunity to discuss your needs and the community directly. Our office is located in Paia and three of our agents call the area home. We know it well and are happy to answer questions about the community. Contact The Maui Real Estate Team to schedule an appointment.
Maui Real Estate Blog
2011 Paia Real Estate Statistics
It is almost February, but I still wanted to take a look back at how some of the individual communities on Maui performed in 2011. I thought no better place to start than our own back yard, the Paia Real Estate market. The Paia market ranges from modest entry level homes to beautiful oceanfront estates. We saw activity in all segments of the market in 2011. I have included the sales numbers below as well as a few thoughts on the market.
There were 26 homes sold in Paia during 2011 at a median price of $597,000. That compares to 23 homes sold in Paia during 2010 at a median price of $590,000**. That translates to a 13% increase in volume and a 1% increase in median.
Of the 26 homes sold, four were short sales and five were bank owned properties. That equates to roughly 35% of the total sales. By comparison, there was one bank owned property and three short sales in Paia during 2010. That translates to roughly 17% of the sales for the year. By simple math, there was just over double the activity in the bank owned and short sale market in 2011 when comparing the two years.
Here are a few other notes about the Paia area 2011 real estate sales. The Paia stats includes the high end Spreckelsville neighborhood. There were seven homes sold in Spreckelsville in 2011. That compares to three sales in Spreckelsville in 2010. That is a 133% increase in activity for the Spreckelsville Real Estate market.
There were a total of four oceanfront sales in the Paia area in 2011. Two of the oceanfront sales were in Spreckelsville and two were in the Kuau area. That compares to two sales in 2010. That is a 100% increase in sales activity along the beach and oceanfront in the Paia area.
In 2011, the Paia real estate market saw the highest ever sale along Maui’s North Shore. A beautiful oceanfront estate in Spreckelsville with an acre of land and two homes sold for $9,650,000. On the other end of the spectrum, there was a 500 square foot residential condo in Kuau that sold as a short sale for $168,000. That was the lowest priced sale we have seen in Paia going all the way back to 1999.
Overall, the numbers show that the Paia Real Estate market saw improvements over 2010. The 13% increase in home sales was a little better than the 10% increase for home sales throughout Maui County. The increase in median offers little for determining changes in values. The small sample size plays a factor. The increased activity on the high end of the market is also providing an upwards pull on the median. I would expect to see a similar performance for the Paia Real Estate Market in 2012 barring any big changes in the overall economic picture. If you are interested in purchasing a home in Maui’s quirky North Shore Beach town, you can browse the current inventory of Paia Real Estate listings on MauiRealEstate.com. You may also contact The Maui Real Estate Team directly for additional assistance buying or selling Paia property.
**2010 figures include two sales that were not reported on the Maui MLS that did not involve Realtors.