Maui Real Estate Blog
September 2022 Paia Real Estate Market Update
Keep Austin Weird. Keep Portland Weird. Keep Paia weird. Yes, it’s time to check in on market conditions in Maui’s quirky North Shore beachtown. The Paia real estate market is doing it’s best to keep things strange with market behavior different this year compared to most other Maui communities.
This update focuses only on Paia and Kuau. Our local MLS lumps these areas together with the Spreckelsville neighborhood. We think that these markets are different enough that they merit their own discussions. If interested, we did a Spreckelsville update earlier this summer.
Notable Numbers from the 2022 Paia Real Estate Market
- As of September 19th, Maui Realtors reported 12 home sales and 1 condo sale during 2022. By comparison, there were 22 home sales and 3 condo sales during the same period of 2021. That is a 45% decrease in home sale activity. There were 12 home sales and 3 condo sales during the same period of 2019.
- Of the 12 homes sold this year, 3 homes sold for over asking price and one sold for full price. That is 33% of the inventory selling for asking or above. Last year, 6 homes sold for above asking price and 6 sold for full price. That is 54.5% selling for asking price or above. In 2019, no homes sold for over asking price while just under 42% sold for full price.
- Of the 12 homes that sold, 6 sold for cash. The listing realtor for the one Kuau condo sale also reported it to be cash transaction.
- The median price of homes sold in Paia is $969,999. That is 7.8% higher than last year’s median of $900,000 and 45.5% lower than the 2019 median of $1,411,562. Note, this is a classic case of how changes in median prices don’t necessarily reflect changes in values, particularly in a small market. Needless to say, prices rose substantially since 2019.
- The average sales price of the homes sold in 2022 is $969,166. That is 56.73% lower than the 2021 average of $2,239,886. It is 28.31% lower than 2019 average of $1,310,010.
- The lowest priced home sale for the year to date closed for $650,000. The 3 bedroom, 1 bathroom home with 1,440 square feet of living space on a 6,604 square foot lot is located in the Paia Halelani subdivision. It’s worth noting that the home needed significant repairs and updates when purchased.
- The highest priced sale in Paia for the year to date closed for $1,445,000. The 3 bedroom, 2.5 bathroom home with 1,512 square feet of living space is located on a 6,094 square foot lot in Kuau Bayview. It sold before hitting the MLS.
- Skill Village showed the most year to date sales activity of any neighborhood in Paia with 5 sales. Paia Halealani and Kuau came next with 2 sales each.
- The one condo sale in Kuau Plaza this year closed for $700,000. The one bedroom, one bath unit set a new all time record high in the complex. That’s particularly noteworthy since the previous high sale from last year is a 2 bedroom.
Making Sense of The Numbers
Maybe I am leaning into the weird theme a little too much. Paia’s sales activity compared to last year shows some similarity to a lot of other communities on island. Lower sales volume is common throughout the island due to both inventory constraints and slackening demand. There are really two numbers in Paia and Kuau that stand out as being unusual. The average sales price and the high home sales price both caught the eye. Both are well below not just 2021 numbers, but also 2019 sales numbers.
You can attribute both the average sales price and the low high sales priced to a lack of activity in the high end market. During the same period last year, there were 8 transactions that closed for more than this year’s high sale. That includes 3 sales for $8,000,000 or more. So what’s driving the lack of luxury market activity? Is it inventory? Is it demand? A combination of the two or something else?
Let’s look at the inventory side of things first. At first glance, inventory does not appear to be an issue. The list price of 5 out of 7 current active listings is over $2,000,000. All of those listings have over 100 days on market. Four additional listings over $2,000,000 were on the market in Paia this year but subsequently withdrawn. That could speak to lack of demand, but little to no high end demand goes against the grain compared to other high end market around the island.
Assessing demand isn’t straight forward. There may be buyers shopping for properties in this price range, but if the inventory in question or the price of the inventory in question does not appeal to the market, you aren’t going to see that demand reflected in the stats.
Let’s look at Paia and Kuau oceanfront activity. Last year, there were three sales on the water as of September 19th including 2 sales for $8,000,000 or above. Those transactions were two of the three highest priced sales in Paia and Kuau to date. High end buyers in the market for Paia or Kuau oceanfront had two oceanfront options this year. Both properties listed well above the all time high sales price.
Now, it certainly isn’t outside the realm of possibility to set new high prices in the current market. That said, it’s not too hard to make a case that the list price for both properties is well above market. The one listing, currently off the market, sold in 2021 for $5,200,000. Without significant improvements, the seller relisted for 90% higher than what they paid a year earlier. The other listing is now on the market for the 13th time since 2005. With now almost 3,000 days on market, you can safely say the market is providing some feedback on the list price.
Based on the above, it seems like some of the owners of Paia and Kuau’s higher priced listings may need to sharpen their pencils if they want to find the market. It’s worth noting that there is one listing for over $2,000,000 under contract. 2012 was the last year where there were no sales over $2,000,000 in Paia or Kuau.
Outlook for the Rest of the Year and Early 2023
Including the one pending transaction noted above, there are three total pending sales in Paia and Kuau at this time. So there should be at least some sales activity to close out the year. The question is what other market activity can we expect in Paia and Kuau. I look at recent demand for new listings, inventory and seasonality to try to get some sense of what we might expect the rest of the year.
When gauging current demand in a community, I like to look at the percentage of properties that go under contract within 10 days of coming to market. I will be honest, I am somewhat wary of how effective this metric is for a community like Paia and Kuau just due to the low sample size. Only two listings came to the market since August 1. One went under contract within 10 days, the other went under contract within a month. That would appear to suggest that there is still some demand out there, but again small sample size.
The available inventory is likely to be a limiting factor for activity. With just seven total listings, no listings under $1,000,000 and all active listings on the market for more than 100 days, it would seem activity will likely need to come via a combination price adjustments, negotiations or new inventory.
Last thing I wanted to look at is seasonality in the Paia and Kuau area. The chart above shows pending sales in the area by month over the last five years. While the first half of the year tends to be busier than the last quarter, December is typically a good month for sales activity in Paia. We shall see if that’s the case this year.
One last thing to note, recent interest rate hikes add head winds to the current market. While the Paia market is a little less exposed due to the percentage of cash transactions, the rate increases will impact affordability for financed buyers.
Contact The Maui Real Estate Team
Our office is located in Paia just off Baldwin Avenue. Needless to say, we keep close tabs on the Paia market. Contact The Maui Real Estate Team for assistance buying or selling property in the Paia area. We leverage our local knowledge, experience and connections to provide quality representation. Check out our Paia Real Estate Page to look at current inventory and to search by neighborhood.
Maui Real Estate Blog
August 2021 Paia Real Estate Market Update
We thought it might be a good time to check in on the Paia Real Estate market. Our office is based in this North Shore beach town. Paia’s real estate market consistently sees strong demand and limited inventory. Demand stems from the combination of the town’s charms, amenities and its proximity to fantastic ocean sports. It is known for surfing, windsurfing, kite surfing, foiling, stand up paddling and more. The limited inventory is due in part to constrained housing supply. Bordered on one side by ocean and the other three sides by agricultural land, there isn’t much room for growth. The total supply of homes grew only slightly since the early 2000s. Prior to Covid-19, the market experienced lower sales volume due to limited inventory. Activity remained limited during the first half of 2020 with momentum building over the last few months of the year. For the first seven months of 2021, activity surged with the most closed transactions since 2018.
This post looks at the activity for the year to date in Paia. it is worth noting that our local MLS lumps, Spreckelsville, Paia and Kuau together. The focus of this post is just on the Paia and Kuau area. We posted on Spreckelsville 2021 market activity in July.
Paia Real Estate Market 2021 Notable Numbers
- Maui Realtors reported 18 homes sold during the first 7 months of 2021. This is well above the sales volumes over the same periods of both 2019 and 2020.
- The median price of the homes sold is $900,000. The average price is $2,129,832.44.
- The lowest sale price in the community for the year is $705,000 for a home in the Skill Village neighborhood. It has three bedrooms, two and half bathrooms and 978 square feet of living space on a 6,739 square foot lot.
- The highest priced transaction for the year to date is $9,100,000 for a 7,660 square foot home and a 936 square foot cottage on a 1.28 acre oceanfront lot in Kuau. That is the highest ever sales price for a home in Paia or Kuau.
- We also saw the highest ever sales price for a non-oceanfront home in the Paia and Kuau area. A 2.2 acre compound across the street from the ocean with a 3,171 square foot home, a 989 square foot cottage and two pools closed for $8,375,000.
- The Skill Village neighborhood had the most sales activity of any neighborhood with 7 sales for the year to date.
- In addition to the 18 homes sold, there are an additional 6 pending sales at this time.
- There were also two condos at Kuau Plaza that closed in the first 7 months of the year.
As mentioned above, Skill Village saw the most sales activity of any neighborhood in the Paia area. Skill Village typically is the most accessible neighborhood by price in the Paia area. The strong demand for entry level homes in the community helped push up pricing. The three all time highest sales prices in Skill Village all happened during the first six months of 2021. They include a new neighborhood high price of $900,000.
Skill Village wasn’t the only entry level neighborhood with higher activity levels. The Paia Halealani neighborhood had 3 sales. While that doesn’t sound like a lot, this subdivision located between North Shore Village and the Paia Community center typically doesn’t see much in the way of activity. Only 3 homes sold in the five years prior to 2021. Sales prices also went up substantially. A home that closed for $1,200,000 shattered the previous neighborhood high sale.
On the other end of the spectrum, there wasn’t much activity in Kuau Bayview with just one listing and one sale. This is typically one of the more in demand neighborhoods in Paia, but there just aren’t many sellers at this time.
While not a neighborhood per say, I wanted to touch on activity in the Paia oceanfront market. There were two ocean front sales in the first seven months of the year. There are two additional oceanfront properties under contract. As mentioned above, the one oceanfront sale set a new record high for the Paia and Kuau area excluding Spreckelsville.
Outlook for the Rest of 2021
While the Maui market isn’t quite as frenzied as the first few months of 2021, it is still a strong seller’s market. Demand in the Maui Real Estate market remains steady. Well priced properties are still tending to go under contract quickly with multiple offer situations common. At this point, supply is likely to have the biggest impact on sales for the rest of 2021 in the Paia and Kuau area. Like many parts of the Maui market, inventory levels are well below normal. There are currently 16 homes listed for sale and 6 of those are already under contract. The remaining 10 include 4 over $7,000,000 and just 2 under $1,000,000. Buyers looking at the entry levels for Paia will find that inventory is particularly limited.
Some mainland markets are starting to see supplies slowly creep up. On Maui inventory remain at or near all time lows. It will be interesting to see if and when we might see inventory levels start to increase in Paia. Supply constraints were impacting market activity prior to Covid. My suspicion is that inventory will be slower to rise in Paia.
Contact The Maui Real Estate Team if you are interested buying or selling property in Paia. The Maui Real Estate keeps close tabs on our back yard market. We would welcome the chance to discuss your real estate needs.
Maui Real Estate Blog
May 2019 Paia Real Estate Market Update
It has been a while since we checked in on the Paia Real Estate Market. Paia town on Maui’s North Shore is where The Maui Real Estate Team office is located. It is one of our office’s core markets. This town has consistently seen strong demand and limited supply. The combination creates steady upward pressure on pricing. This post looks at market activity in the community during the second half of 2018 and the first four months of 2019.
One thing to note. Our local MLS groups Paia, Spreckelsville and Kuau together. We have always thought that Spreckelsville is its own market. As a result, this post looks at Paia and Kuau only. We provided a market update on Spreckelsville in February.
The map above shows sales market activity in Paia and Kuau between July 1, 2018 and May 1, 2019. The red pins represent sales. The yellow pins represent pending sales. The green sales represent active inventory. You can click on individual pins for more details on sales.
Paia Sales Summary
- There were 11 homes and 3 condos sold during the last six months of 2018. By comparison, there were 8 homes and one condo sold in the second half of 2017.
- The median price of the homes sold in the second half of 2018 was $878,000. The median price of homes sold in the same period of 2017 was $747,000.
- During the first four months of 2019, six homes and two condos sold. During the first four months of 2018, there were eight homes sold.
- The median price of the homes sold during the first four months of 2019 is $1,079,062. The median prices for the homes sold in the first third of 2018 was $800,000.
- The high sale for the first four months of 2019 is 50 Kai Place. This home and ohana is located on a 12,166 square foot lot on the ocean side of Hana Highway. The value may have been higher to the purchaser than the general market as it provides a potential second access point to the buyer’s oceanfront property. It closed for $2,150,000.
- The high sale for the last six months of 2018 is 116 Kuau Beach place. This oceanfront property consists of two homes on a lot of approximately 16,335 square feet. It sold for $3,500,000.
- The lowest priced home to sell during the first four months of 2019 is 514 Pahi Ka Street in Skill Village. This four bedroom, two and a half bath home with 1,670 square feet of living space sold for $649,000.
- The lowest priced home to sell in the last 6 months of 2018 sold for $350,000. This home, located located behind Cafe Des Amis, was in very poor condition. It was recently renovated and went under contract for $575,000 before it went to market.
Sales Activity in Specific Paia Neighborhoods
Three sales closed in Kuau Bayview between July 1, 2018 and May 1, 2019. More accurately, all three sales closed in the second half of 2018. That is a slight uptick over the two sales that occurred over the same period between 2017 and 2018. While we haven’t seen any sales in the $900,000 plus range as we have in the previous couple of years, that is more due to the size and location of the units that have sold. This neighborhood continues to see strong buyer demand due to its location and general pride of ownership.
Sales activity has been higher in Skill Village than any other neighborhood in Paia over the last five years. Some of that is due to the size of the neighborhood. It is also due to relative affordability. It typically offers some of the lower priced homes in Paia. Four homes sold in the neighborhood between July 1, 2018 and May 1, 2019. That is a slight dip from the five homes that sold in the year prior. Sales seem to be slowing due to a limited supply of inventory. The decreased inventory is helping to push prices up further.
Kuau Plaza, the thirty unit condo in Paia, saw a fair amount of sales activity with three sales in the last half of 2018 and two sales in the first four months of 2019. There is one additional condo in Kuau Plaza that is currently under contract. Units in the building tend to sell quickly when they come on market. The fact that you can vacation rent these condos legally helps boost demand for the property. That is particularly the case with the recent additional restrictions on vacation renting single family homes on island.
Only one oceanfront home sold in Paia since July 1, 2018. That is down quite a bit from the five sales over the same period of 2017-2018. Some of that stems from lack of inventory. There are only three oceanfront homes on the market at this time. Two of those homes came to market after January first. Oceanfront homes tend to spend more time on the market.
Overall Thoughts on the Statistics and the Paia Market Outlook
Looking at all of the numbers above, the median sales price for the first four months of 2019 is the most striking. Paia broke the million dollar median barrier. The median is driven in part by an increase in values, but also due to a lack of lower priced inventory. At this point, the lowest priced sale for the year is $649,000. I would anticipate that homes priced under $700,000 will remain scarce through the year which will continue the trend of high median sales prices.
If the overall economy continues on its current trajectory, values will continue to push upward. That said, I would not be surprised to see the rate of increase moderate. Homes in Paia are becoming increasingly inaccessible for the average island resident. If prices push up much further, I surmise it will be due to off island vs. local buyers.
Maui Real Estate Blog
Paia 2016 Real Estate Market Year In Review
Paia town is home base for the Maui Real Estate Team. It also happens to be one of the more in demand real estate markets on island. A bohemian vibe, Plantation town charm, access to great water sports, galleries, good restaurants and shopping have made this little town internationally renowned. We want to take a look back at how the Paia market performed in 2016 and how it might perform in 2017.
One quick note, typically the Spreckelsville neighborhood is lumped in with Paia when people talk about Paia real estate. We believe Spreckelsville is somewhat unique within Paia and opted to exclude it from this overview. We did a separate Sprecks market update at the end of 2016.
The map above shows the 2016 sales as well as the one 2017 sale that was based on a contract from 2016. You can click on individual pins on the map for additional details on the sales.
Looking back at the year in sales, there were some notable numbers that I think are worth highlighting.
- There were 31 homes sold in Paia and Kuau during 2016 with a median sales price of $600,000 and an average sales price of $1,119,216. In 2015, there were 26 home sales with a median price of $587,000 and an average price of $701,942. That is a 19% increase in volume, a 2% increase in median price and a 59% increase in average price.
- The highest priced home sale was $6,000,000 for an oceanfront estate in Kuau. The property consists of a 4 bedroom, 4.5 bathroom home with 6,258 square feet of living space and a 1 bedroom, 1 bathroom cottage with 1,050 square feet of living space on approximately 1.283 acres of land. Last year, the high sale was $2,995,000 for a single family oceanfront home on Kuau Point.
- This year’s high sale was one of three transactions to close for over $4,000,000 in Paia and Kuau during 2016. All three properties were oceanfront.
- The lowest priced home sale was $455,000 for a 3 bedroom, one bath house with 1,104 square feet of living space on a 6,791 square foot lot. This home is located in the Skill Village Neighborhood. The 2015 low sale was $345,000 for a three bedroom, one bath home with 1,080 square feet of living space on a 6,599 square foot lot.
- There were three condo sales in 2016 at Kuau Plaza. Kuau Plaza is the only condo in the Paia/Kuau area. The highest of the three sales closed for $325,000.
- There was one land sale in Paia in 2016. This oceanfront .432 acre lot closed for $2,950,000. There were no land sales in Paia in 2015.
- There were no bank owned properties or successful short sale transactions that closed in Paia during 2016.
While the numbers above give you a glimpse into market activity in Paia and Kuau as a whole, I also wanted to take a look at some of the individual areas and neighborhoods around Paia.
Kuau Bayview has been one of the strongest performing neighborhoods on the island. It was setting all time high prices before any other neighborhood on the island during this market cycle. The neighborhood holds a lot of appeal to buyers due to location, walkability, consistent pride of ownership and in some cases views. Last year was another strong year for the neighborhood. Record sales prices were set not once but three times. The current record high of $952,000 pushes Kuau Bayview pretty close to the $1,000,000 threshold. In addition to the three high sales, there were two other smaller floor plan sales. The five total sales for 2016 was up sharply from the single sale in 2015. That said, it is worth noting that sales volume in this neighborhood tends to be more of a reflection of available supply instead of demand.
North Shore Village
North Shore Village was the last new development built in Paia. It is hard to believe that it was completed 14 years ago. There were only two sales in the neighborhood in 2016, but one was quite notable. 21 Hoku sold for $750,000. That is a new record high sale by a considerable margin. It sold for 13% more on a cost per square foot basis than the other sale in the neighborhood which only closed 4 months prior. On a cost per square foot basis, it was 19% higher than the previous neighborhood high sale. It will be interesting to see if that will be the new standard or if that sale is viewed as an outlier by future buyers.
Skill Village is another neighborhood that had a record high sale in 2016. A four bedroom, three bathroom home sold for $680,000 in September. It also remains the busiest neighborhood in Paia for sales volume. This was the second straight year with 9 transactions. While the recent high sales price may suggest otherwise, Skill Village provides the most opportunity for buyers who want to get into Paia for below the island’s median sales price for homes.
While Paia has seen a strong real estate market since the start of the recovery, Paia oceanfront has been slower. There has been a lot of inventory and relatively few sales. We saw a change in dynamics during 2016. After just one sale per year in 2014 and 2015, we saw four transactions in 2016. There were three oceanfront home sales and one land sale.
2017 Market Outlook
After a strong 2016, the big question is what should we expect during 2017 in the Paia Real Estate market. There are few things that I think will drive the market.
Inventory tops the list of market drivers. Island wide, we have seen home inventory shrink. Paia is seeing a more acute decrease in active listings than most other parts of the island. There are currently only 14 active home listings in Paia and Kuau. Three homes are currently under contract. Of the active listings, only five listings are priced less than $1,000,000. The one home priced for less than $500,000 is a short sale facing foreclosure. It also happens to have four additional liens on the property. The lack of available inventory makes it hard for me to imagine that we will come close to last year’s sales volume.
Low inventory and continued demand are a dynamic that is likely to provide continued upward price pressure in the Paia market. Interest rates are something that could prove to be a counterweight to the lack of inventory. Conventional wisdom suggests that we are going to continue to see increases in rates throughout the year. If that comes to fruition, I would suspect that might limit the increase in values particularly in the bottom of the half of the market. Entry level buyers face a tough barrier with current pricing in Paia. Increases in rates will make the cost of ownership that much higher.
We may also look at recent market history for a forecast of the future. Paia has seen significant appreciation since the last downturn, but appreciation has not been linear. If I were to chart values over the last four years, it would likely look like a stair case. Strong increases in value were followed by a pause in values as the market would seemingly catch its breath. Kuau Bayview is a good example of this dynamic. That neighborhood saw a series of record high sales in 2013. The next year and most of 2015 were pretty quiet due to a lack of inventory and sales. As mentioned above, 2015 saw the neighborhood high sales mark broken three times. If the pattern continues, we might see a quieter 2017.
One segment that will be interesting to watch is the oceanfront home market. This price range tends to be less interest rate sensitive due to the higher percentage of cash transactions. The last year was the strongest year since the downturn and one of the strongest overall historically for Paia and Kuau Oceanfront. Part of that stems from sellers adjusting to the market. The high sale for the year closed well below replacement cost. There is currently one oceanfront home under contract, and sellers have continued to adjust their pricing hoping to find the market. I would anticipate the oceanfront market might remain more active particularly if sellers continue to adjust prices.
The Future of Paia Real Estate
The strength of the Paia market over the last 15 years has been a simple case of supply and demand. Demand has only increased over the years as the town has become more and more renowned. Paia has made a couple of lists for the Best Beach Towns in America. Numerous other publications have cast the spotlight on Maui’s hip beach town. For each new article, there seemed to be more buyers of Paia real estate. All the while, supply has been practically unchanged since North Shore Village was built back in 2003. The town’s growth has been limited by the surrounding cane fields. The closing of the sugar plantation in December of 2016 may mean the end of that growth barrier.
There has already been one large parcel of land sold to the West of town. A 340 acre parcel directly to the West of Paia sold for $9,900,000 in January. The agriculturally zoned land is on the Mauka (Mountain) side of Hana Highway. The land runs from the town’s parking lot and mini bypass up towards the mill and heads West towards Baldwin Beach Park. Plans for the land have not been presented to the public. The coconut wireless has suggested 16 high end agricultural lots with the potential for mixed use development along Baldwin Avenue closer to the mill. I don’t anticipate that development will happen quickly. The subdivision process can be lengthy on Maui. If any rezoning is done, that could lead to additional delays.
While we are unlikely to see changes over the next couple of years, the cane fields may no longer serve as a limitation for growth. Some of this cane land will become ranch land. Still more areas could be sold off for future development.
Buying and Selling Paia Real Estate
You can see all of the Paia Area Real Estate Listings on MauiRealEstate.com. Our office is located in the heart of town in Paia Plaza at 71 Baldwin Avenue. Our agents live in the area and have decades of experience in this market. We watch the market closely and keep our ears to the ground for properties coming up for sale. Contact The Maui Real Estate if you are interested in buying or selling in Paia.
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Paia 2014 Real Estate Review and 2015 Outlook
Just a few days ago, we posted a year end review and 2015 outlook for the Spreckelsville Neighborhood. Today, I wanted to take a look at the town of Paia and how its real estate market performed in 2014. We also wanted to give some thoughts on what might be expected of this market during 2015. Spreckelsville is actually a part of Paia, but we split the two communities in our analysis because of the relatively unique characteristics of the respective markets. That means this post will focus exclusively on Paia and the Kuau area of Paia.
Paia has been one of the stronger real estate markets on the island since the downturn. Simple supply and demand plays a factor in the strength of Paia’s housing market. There has been no new housing created in the Paia area since the construction of North Shore Village in 2003. Since that time, Paia has seen demand grow considerably as more and more people have sought to relocate or buy second homes in this funky North Shore Beach town. Buyers are attracted to the bohemian vibe, good restaurants, yoga studios, cute boutiques, the island’s best health food store and some of the most consistent wind and waves on the planet for water sports. The demand for Paia Real Estate was particularly evident in 2013 when some neighborhoods in the area hit new record highs. Did Paia continue at those same levels in 2014? Find out below as we give you the numbers.
The map below shows all of the sales that occurred in Paia and Kuau area during 2013. Click on the individual pins on the maps to learn more details about the sales.
There were a few notable numbers from the 2014 Paia sales figures that I thought were worth sharing.
- There were 18 homes sold in Paia during 2014. That is down from the 20 homes sold in 2013. That is a 10% drop in activity.
- The median sales price for homes in Paia during 2014 was $634,750. The 2013 median was $678,500. That is a 6% drop in median price.
- There were three condo sales at Kuau Plaza in 2014. There were three condo sales at Kuau Plaza in 2013.
- Kuau Plaza appears to have seen very strong growth in values during the year. The only one bedroom that sold in 2013 closed for $200,000. All three sales in 2014 were one bedrooms and their median price was $279,000. That is a 40% increase in median price. In this case, the change in median is pretty closely correlated with the change in value.
- There was only one land sale in 2014 compared to four land sales in 2013. Vacant Land is in finite supply in Paia. If we are to see any more than one sale a year, it will likely come from the flip of recently sold lots.
- There were two short sales and one bank owned transaction in Paia during 2014. There was one bank owned sale and one short sale in 2013.
There are a couple of things that deserve comment regarding the Paia market in 2014. After a frenetic 2013 that saw big price increases and a strong market recovery, things appear to have leveled off a little in 2014. This was evident in slightly lower transaction volumes and to some extent the lower medians. It is even more evident when you look at a neighborhood like Kuau Bayview. That market was in a frenzy in 2013, but buyers were reticent to push prices in 2014. This is in line with what we predicted during our Paia 2014 Outlook. In some ways this is a relief, as it would have been unsustainable in the long term to continue at higher rates of appreciation.
The Paia luxury market was relatively quiet this year with only two sales over $2,000,000. More of the high end sales activity was occurring down the road in Spreckelsville during 2014 where there were five sales over $2,000,000.
It will be interesting to see what happens with the market in 2015 in Paia. The map below shows the current inventory and the sales that we have seen in the year to date. Green dots represent active listings. Yellow pins show properties that are currently under contract and red dots are sales that have closed this year. You can click on each of the pins for additional details.
It appears as if 2015 is off to a pretty solid start with three homes sold and an additional four properties under contract. There was one notable sale in Kuau Bayview with a new record high sales price established. I would expect that we will see similar dynamics to what we experienced last year with relatively modest price appreciation. If sales continue at their current pace, we should see more closes than we did in 2014.
It will be particularly interesting to watch the luxury and oceanfront home market in Paia. There are more oceanfront homes for sale in Paia than any other community on island. That gives potential buyers a lot of options. It is notable that there are no oceanfront homes for sale in Spreckelsville. Unless that changes, that might divert more potential high end buyers to the Paia and Kuau area.
The Maui Real Estate Team’s office is located in the heart of Paia. We know the community and its real estate inventory well. Contact The Maui Real Estate Team if you are interested in buying or selling property in the Paia area. We would welcome the opportunity to discuss your real estate needs and offer a free consultation. You can check find the current inventory of Paia Real Estate Listings on MauiRealEstate.com.
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Paia Real Estate 2013 Midyear Market Update
This is the third post in our series of articles looking at the Maui Real Estate market midway through the year. We have already published a midyear Maui Real Estate market update and a Haiku Market update. Today, we are taking a glance at the Paia real estate market. Paia is situated on the North Shore of the island and is known throughout the world as a mecca of wind and water sports. Athletes from all over the world are drawn to the combination of wind and waves that make this a premier destination for windsurfing, kiteboarding, stand up paddling, surfing and big wave surfing. You don’t have to be a big wave rider to enjoy Paia Town. The town has a bohemian vibe, great shopping, good Yoga facilities, very good restaurants, natural beauty, the best little heath food store on the planet, proximity to good schools and a better sense of community than the resort areas on the island.
The Paia Real Estate market consists of three geographic areas. Going from West to East, the Spreckelsville Neighborhood runs from right next to the airport all the way to Baldwin Beach. It is home to the Maui Country Club and three main beaches. The community is an ideal gateway for the beach lifestyle with a good walking beach, windsurfing, kiting, surfing, body boarding and SUP. Many residents own golf carts so they can bring all their toys down to the beach. Real estate options include executive homes near and on the golf course, two acre compounds with beach access, beachfront estates and the North Shore’s only luxury condominiums. Heading further east, you get to Paia town proper. Paia town is an eclectic mix of older plantation homes, 1970s and 1980s vintage entry level homes, newer town homes in North Shore Village and a smattering of beach and oceanfront homes. As you head past Paia town towards Mama’s Fish House, you get to the Kuau area. Kuau includes the neighborhood of Kuau Bayview, an interesting mix of homes on the Mauka (Mountain Side) of Hana Highway and more high end homes along the Makai (ocean) side of Hana Highway.
The numbers below include information on sales volumes and median sales prices in the Paia area for the first six months of the year. I also included some other noteworthy numbers I came across along the way while compiling these stats. These are followed by a look at how the sales broke down by price point, the current state of the market and what we might expect for the rest of 2013.
During the first six months of 2013, realtors reported 14 home sales in Paia with a median price of $678,500. During the first half of 2012, there were sixteen sales reported with a median price of $457,500. That is a 12.5% drop in sales volume and a 48% increase in median price.
There were three condo sales reported in Paia during the first six months of 2013. There was only one condo sale during the first half of 2012.
There were three land sales reported in Paia during the first half of 2013. No land sales were reported in Paia during the first six months of 2012.
While compiling the numbers above, I came upon a number of other facts and figures about the Paia Market during the first half of 2013 that I thought were worth sharing.
- The highest sale in Paia for the first half of the year was $5,500,000 for an older home on almost an acre of oceanfront land. My understanding is that this was more of a land purchase than a home sale as the buyer intends to tear down the existing older homes on the property and build a larger estate home.
- There was one other sale over $1,000,000 during this time frame and it was another big deal. An estate property across the street from Tavares Bay sold for $4,600,000.
- In addition to the home sales, there was one other big land sale in Paia to start the year. An 18,875 square foot lot right on Tavares Bay sold for $2,300,000.
- Kuau Bayview was the busiest neighborhood in the Paia area with four total closes. It also saw the strongest signs of price appreciation with a new all time high sales price and a couple of other sales notable for their high price considering location and/or home size.
- On the other end of the spectrum, Spreckelsville saw no sales during the first half of the year. Anecdotal evidence would suggest this might be a case of variability verses the neighborhood falling out of favor. I know of a couple of listings that had heavy showing activity and received offers.
- If there was one number that really grabbed me, it was that six of the fourteen sales were properties that were not listed on the MLS. Buyers were doing some digging to find properties with the inventory of homes on the market under $1,000,000 limited.
- There weren’t many distressed sellers on the market in 2013. There was only one short sale that was completed and there were no bank owned sales during the first six months of 2013.
It was an interesting first half of the year for the Paia market. At first blush, the decrease in home sales might suggest diminished demand. That being said, I think the case can be made that it wasn’t demand that was lacking as much as quality inventory. We can see that by the number of homes that were sold that were unlisted. Buyers had to scrounge for unlisted properties under $1,000,000 to meet their needs. Pricing was a mixed bag. Properties under $1,000,000 saw varying levels of upward price pressure depending on the neighborhood. Skill Village saw modest appreciation despite limited inventory. North Shore Village sales are infrequent, but the most recent sales were well over the last sale in 2011. Kuau Bayview saw signs of significant appreciation. A new record sales price was established. There was also the second highest sale on a cost per square foot basis and the highest sale for a home abutting Hana Highway.
The luxury market was a little less clear cut than entry and middle levels of the Paia market. The two big sales were both noteworthy. The high sale was the third highest sale in Paia history. It is particularly notable in that the home is a tear down. The buyers paid a healthy sum for arguably the best piece of land in the Kuau area. The second highest sale of the first six months of 2013 was the highest ever sales price for a non-oceanfront home. Beyond that luxury home sales were relatively quiet particularly in the $1,000,000-$2,000,000 range. I don’t think this was due to a lack of interest as much as it was just the variability in the market and the inability of sellers and buyers to find a common sales price.
The land and condo market both saw upticks in activity during the first half of 2013. After seeing little interest for at least a year, Kuau Plaza started to garner interest from the market place in the second half of 2012 and we saw three sales in the first half of 2013. There is never a whole lot of activity in the Paia land market. The reason being that there is very little vacant land in the community. Three sales is pretty busy for a six month span by Paia standards.
Looking at the current inventory of Paia Real Estate listings, the inventory options under $1,000,000 remain pretty limited. The chart below shows the distribution of properties by price point. The Blue Bars represent sales during the first half of the year and give some sense of market demand. The green bars represent pending and contingent listings. The red bars represent active listings.
The map below gives a sense of the geographic distribution of recent sales, current pending sales and active listings. The map also includes land and condo listings. Clicking on the individual pins on the map will bring up property details. If you click on the link below the map, it will bring it up as a separate page with additional detail on the all of the properties on the map.
View Paia Real Estate Sales 2013 in a larger map
As it stands, there is a pretty good inventory of homes to choose from in the higher price ranges while the options under $1,000,000 remain limited with only three active listings in the Skill Village neighborhood. Of note, two of the skill village listings are listed for near peak market prices. While Kuau Bayview has seen that type of price increase, we haven’t seen as strong a demand for Skill Village to date. With so little inventory available, it will be interesting to watch the market feedback for these properties.
Now that we have a better sense of what is available in the current market, I wanted to give my thoughts on what me might expect for the Paia market for the rest of 2013 via the video commentary below.
Contact The Maui Real Estate Team with questions or for additional information. Paia is where our office is located and it also happens to be the home of three members of the Maui Real Estate Team. We know the community like it is our backyard. We would welcome the opportunity to sit down with potential Paia buyers and sellers for a free consultation. You can find all of the current active Paia Real Estate Listings and Spreckelsville Real Estate Listings on MauiRealEstate.com.