Tag: Real Estate Sales Volume

Time for my weekly overview on activity in the Maui Real Estate market. This week’s post provides a glance at both pending sales activity and closed transactions.

Last Week’s Pending Sales

Needless to say, market activity on Maui continues to slow. After a busy January and February, the Covid-19 Pandemic first impacted the market in early March. Each successive week brings a further decrease in activity. The dip became more pronounced after the stay at home advisory went into effect on March 25th.

Between Wednesday February 26th and March 3rd, 63 properties went under contract. More accurately, 63 properties went under contract and either remain under contract or have since closed. The breakdown of sales for that week included 28 homes, 30 condos and five lots.

Between March 25th and March 31st, the first week of official stay at home, new pending sales decreased to 21. The breakdown includes 10 homes, 9 condos and 2 lots.

As of this week, Realtors reported 8 new pending sales to date. That total includes 4 homes and 4 condos. That number could jump a little over the next day or two as more updates are made to our MLS.

The number of properties going under contract is clearly slowing significantly from the level of activity earlier this winter. Limited showings and overall and personal financial uncertainty all play a part in the decrease. From my discussion with lenders, financing is starting to tighten as well. Self employed buyers are having a tough time qualifying due to uncertainty over income. Investors are finding fewer loan options.

Tracking Closed Transactions

If there is one bit of good news in the market, buyers and sellers are still getting deals across the finish line. The numbers are starting to dwindle, but that is a reflection of the shrinking number of pending sales. While there are some transactions that have cancelled, the vast majority are closing.

Property sales between February 26th and March 3rd were strong. Condos led the way with 47 units sold, followed by 32 homes sold and 3 lots closed.

On the first week of Maui’s stay at home order between March 25th and 31st, sales remained relatively strong with 47 condos sold, 22 homes sold and 2 lots closed.

It is just in the last two weeks that the slowdown in sales activity became a little more pronounced. Between the 8th and the 14th of April, closes dropped to 18 homes, 13 condos and 2 lots. The 33 total sales in the last week is just 40% of the sales between February 6th and March 3rd.

Another Shift We Are Seeing in the Market

Looking at both the pending and the sales charts above, there is one other change in the market that stands out. For most of the winter, condo sales led the way in the market. Buyer demand was particularly strong for vacation rental condos. It comes as no surprise that a tourism shut down would impact the demand for vacation rental condos. I hoped to delve into the vacation rental condo market in depth today. As tends to happen with these posts, they get a little long. I will have to save that for another post.

There is another important factor in the slow down in condo activity. Entry level condos on Maui are workforce housing. There are condos in places like Kihei, Kahului and Wailuku that offer the chance for home ownership for people who make their living in the tourist industry. The reality is that large numbers of Maui’s working class are now unemployed with tourism shut down. This is really slowing demand for these condos. It is notable that the only four condos that went pending between the 8th and 14th were vacation rentals.

I know there are a lot of homeowners and home buyers out there who have questions about the market. Don’t hesitate to contact The Maui Real Estate Team for assistance. This is a tough time to prognosticate with so much uncertainty. That said we will do our best to provide you with data and information. He hope everyone who reads this is staying safe.

That was quick! September has come and gone in the blink of an eye. It was a busy month for The Maui Real Estate Team as we brought quite a few new listings to market. That being said, I am looking forward to October. This is one of my favorite times of year as the waves begin to return to The North Shore and night time temperatures begin to cool. The end of September also means it is time for us to post our “Unofficial” September Maui Real Estate Statistics. This is our sneak peak before the Realtors Association of Maui releases their official numbers. We also like to include some thoughts on the market and the meaning behind the numbers. Without further ado, here are our numbers for September.

By my count, there were 75 homes sold in Maui County during September. The median sales price was $425,000. By comparison, the September 2011 numbers were 80 homes sold with a median sales price of $412,000. That is a 6% decrease in volume and a 3% increase in median sales price when comparing the two Septembers.

I counted 65 condo sales in Maui County last month with a median sales price of $339,563. During September 2011, there were 83 condos sold at a median of $334,900. That calculates to a 22% decrease in sales volume and a 1% increase in median price.

I tallied 11 lots sold in Maui County during September with a median sales price of $238,000. The totals for last September were 12 parcels of land sold with a median price of $330,000. That is an 8% drop in volume and a 28% drop in median sales price.

Here are a few other numbers that I found noteworthy while looking through the sales data.

• There were a total of 16 Bank Owned properties sold last month. Most of those were single family homes. By comparison, there were 48 Bank owned properties sold last September. That is a 66% decrease in bank owned sales volume.
• There were 29 short sale transactions that closed last month. During September of 2011, there were 15 short sales that closed in Maui County. That is a 93% increase in short sale activity.
• There was one luxury home sold on Maui this September for over $2,000,000. Last September, there were six sales over $2,000,000.
• The luxury condo market had four transactions over $1,500,000 during September. In September 2011, there was one condo sold over $1,500,000.
• The high sale on island last month was $2,900,000 for a residential condominium in Launiupoko. The low sales price for the month was $8,600 for a condo at Hale Ono Loa.
• Ten of the sixty-five condos sold last month were at Ho’onanea in Lahaina. These were developer sales at this new West Maui condo complex.

Looking at the numbers above, there were a few things that stood out to me. One thing that really caught my eye was the decrease in bank owned sales compared to last year. The bank owned inventory on the island remains limited. It has been surmised for sometime that we would see an uptick in bank owned inventory this summer. After a week last month where we saw a handful of new bank owned listings coming on the market, I wondered if it was potential anecdotal evidence that the bank owned backlog was finally coming. Looking at the actual data, I was wrong. There were only 16 new bank owned properties that came on the market last month. That is well below the 30-50 new bank owned listings per month that we were seeing during the height of bank owned activity. It is clear, we still aren’t seeing the flood of shadow inventory that most expected.

Part of the reason for the lack of bank owned inventory could be traced to the increase in short sale transactions. While bank owned sales were down, short sales were up almost 100% over last year. Banks are becoming more cooperative on short sales. It is one of the primary reasons why there have been reports of a significant reduction of the shadow inventory. While I still think we may see some increases in bank owned inventory at some point in the future, I am starting to think that it won’t be anywhere close to the flood once anticipated.

Last but not least, the most eye catching numbers were the decreases in sales volume compared to last September. With many saying the market has improved, why the downturn in activity? We have been focusing on the potential impacts of a decrease in inventory for some time. In the paragraphs above, we referenced the decrease in bank owned inventory. There are also fewer conventional properties listed for sale. I will do a separate post with my data on the inventory sometime in the next week. In the interim, I would speculate that the lack of inventory is a driving factor in the decrease in sales volume. While I can only offer the dreaded anecdotal evidence, I know our own office has quite a few buyers who are struggling to find properties that meet their needs. There is demand to support more transactions, we are just lacking in inventory in many segments of the market.

As a side note, I will be interested to see how these numbers are reported in the broader media and real estate community. I have to say, I was a little disappointed in some of the breathless commentary on last month’s numbers. I saw more than a few people who portrayed the over twenty percent increase in median as representative of an equivalent increase in values. As I have said many times before on this blog, changes in medians are not always indicative of changes in values. Changes in the composition of homes sold can have an equal or greater impact on the change in monthly median.

What does this all mean for buyers and sellers? Our perspectives remain unchanged. Buyers are continuing to find good values, but constrained inventories among many property types require buyers to exhibit patience. This means you may have to wait to find the right properties to come on the market that will meet your needs. You should do all that you can to prepare yourself so you can act quickly when the right deal comes along. Many sellers require pre-approval or pre-qualification letters with offers. Get pre-approved before you start looking! It will help set your budget and won’t hold you back when it is time to make offers. Sellers have their own set of challenges. Sellers will need to look closely at their particular segment of the market when determining go to market prices. While some segments of the market lack inventory, other segments have an inflated inventory. In order to attract attention in a saturated part of the market, you really need to price well. Well priced properties are getting interest. Overpriced homes are languishing with few calls. Delving into the current Maui Real Estate market requires quality representation. Contact The Maui Real Estate Team if you need assistance buying or selling Maui Property.