Maui Real Estate Blog

Maui Market Musings Volume XV

Welcome to the 15th edition of our market musings. The last musings was a little more of a backwards looking post as we reviewed notable numbers from the June Stats and took a deep dive into the land market during the first half of the year. This edition focuses on statistics that might be better suited to addressing current market conditions. We also take a longer look at the Wailea and Makena markets. We review the first six months of sales activity and take a look at current market conditions and the market outlook. There is a lot to digest in this post so you may want to be suitably caffeinated before proceeding.

Inventory

While June was a month of substantive increases in inventory, thus far the month of July has seen more limited change. The inventory of single family homes is actually lower now than it was on June 30th. At that time, there were 241 active listings. As of July 23rd, the inventory decreased 3% to 234 active listings.

For the condo market, the inventory of active listings increased modestly. On June 30th, the number of active listings was 199. As of July 23rd, the inventory increased 7.5% to 214 active listings.

Maui’s single family home inventory trends appear to be diverging from the rest of the country when it comes to inventory. That said, we are seeing variability in our market place. Inventory and levels of activity vary by price point and community. We should have an updated break down of inventory trends by price point shortly after the first of the month.

Price Reductions

As of July 23rd, 35.04% of all active listings reduced their price at least once. That is up modestly from July 4th when 34.03% of all active home listings reduced asking price.

For condos, 27.57% of all active condos reduced their price as of July 23rd. That is up from 24.63% of condos on July 4th.

We are little bit ahead of the national average when it comes to price reductions, but the number of price reductions appears to be increasing at a slower rate than national markets.

It is interesting to see our rate of price reductions increasing slowly. Prior to the Covid boom, Maui was always a place where sellers tended to be slower to reduce price. Longer days on market were more common. One question we find ourselves asking a lot around the office is what a new real estate normal will look like on island moving forward? Will we go back to typical Maui seller behavior pre-covid or will seller behavior more closely resemble mainland markets? It may take some time to determine the answer to that question.

Quick Sales

Another metric we started tracking earlier in the year is the percentage or properties that go under contract within 10 days of coming to the market. Of the homes and condos listed between July 1st and July 8th, 31.91% went under contract within 10 days of coming to market. That is actually up from June 14th-21st when only 25.37% of listings went under contract within 10 days of coming to market. That said, this is also the first time this year when the percentage of homes going under contract within 10 days was lower than the same period of 2019.

It is also worth noting that there is difference between the home and condo market. Of the homes listed between July 1st and July 8th, 23.53% went under contract within 10 days of coming to market. Of the homes listed during the same seven day period of 2019, 25.81% went under contract within 10 days. The condo market continues to see properties go under contract at a brisker pace. Of the condos listed between July 1st and July 8th, 36.67% went under contract within 10 days. That is just ahead of condos listed during the same seven days of 2019 when 36.11% went under contract within 10 days

Some Quick Thoughts on Current Conditions

It’s a strange market out there. Buyer demand is well below what we saw during 2021 and earlier this year with far fewer properties under contract. That said, inventory levels remain well below normal in most communities around the island. It’s likely that the lack of inventory is one reason why we aren’t seeing more price reductions.

It seems as if there is a little bit stronger demand in the condo market than the single family home market judging by the higher percentage of properties going under contract within 10 days. That comes despite a little more condo inventory coming to market.

Buyers will find conditions less competitive than earlier this year. However, well priced properties in areas and price points with low demand can still generate multiple offers. Overall, sellers can expect longer days on market and fewer buyers. Sellers should be particularly mindful of market conditions specific to their community and price point when pricing their property. It’s also worth remembering that negotiation and give and take is a lot more likely today than it was six months ago.

Wailea and Makena Market Overview

This is the first of a handful of features we will be doing in our market musings looking at specific communities on the island. Today, we are focusing on the resort markets of Wailea and Makena. Its worth noting that I used the term markets plural. While our MLS lumps the two areas together, the two communities have differences that make them unique. Wailea is significantly more developed with large hotels, a shopping center and a lot more neighborhoods and condo complexes. While expensive, the entry point for Wailea is much lower than Makena. Makena is smaller, less developed and has the highest concentration of high priced homes on the island.

Wailea Home Sales

This is a look back at single family home sale activity in Wailea during the first six months of 2022. These are some of the most notable numbers from that time.

  • Maui Realtors reported 17 homes sold in the Wailea Resort in the first half of the year. That is down 43% from the 30 sales reported during the first six months of 2021.
  • Inventory constraints played a significant part in the reduced sales. Decreased demand may be another factor in the second quarter of the year, but it is hard to say definitively.
  • Seven of seventeen sales closed for over asking price. Ten of seventeen sold for asking price or above. Demand was strong for the limited inventory available.
  • Nine of the seventeen sales were reported to be all cash transactions.
  • The median and average price of the homes sold in the first six months of the year is $2,800,000 and $3,478,441 respectively. This is actually down from last year when the median and average price of $3,475,000 and $3,973,168.
  • To be clear, the value of homes in Wailea did not depreciate this year. This shift in medians and averages stems from a difference in the composition of inventory sold. The chart below shows the difference between the first halves of 2021 and 2022. While there were still a fair number of sub-$2,000,000 sales in 2021, there was also a much higher volume of transactions for $4,000,000 and above in 2021. This stems in part from the much lower inventory of homes above $4,000,000 in Wailea this year.
This chart compares sales volume by price point in Wailea during the first half of 2021 and the first half of 2022.
Sales Volume by Price Point in Wailea during the first half of 2021 and 2022. All values on the bottom Axis are in millions.
  • The lowest priced home to sell during the first half of the year in Wailea closed for $2,270,000. That buyer purchased a 3 bedroom, 4 bath home with 2,562 square feet of living space and a pool in the Wailea Kai subdivision.
  • The highest priced Wailea sale during the first half of the year closed for $8,750,000. The home in Wailea Highlands includes 4 bedrooms, 7 baths and 8,657 square feet of living space on just under a half acre.
  • Wailea Golf Vistas experienced the most sales activity with 5 transactions. Wailea Pualani saw the second most sales with 4 transactions.

Wailea Condo Sales

The numbers below are some of the most noteworthy from the first six months of condo sales in Wailea.

  • Maui Realtors reported 77 condo sales in Wailea during the first half of the year. That is down 51% from the 157 sales reported during January-June of 2021.
  • Again, scarcity was a big factor in the decrease in sales. At one point in the first quarter, active Wailea inventory dipped to 6 condos. Some of the difference between the two years can also be attributed to new developer sales in Makali’i. The 2021 sales were boosted by 20 closes in Makalii based on contracts signed 2-3 years prior.
  • Of the 77 sales, 26 or 33.77% sold for over asking price. An impressive 54 out of 77 sales or 70.13% of all transactions closed for asking price or above. Again, this points to strong demand and competition for the limited supply.
  • Maui Realtors reported that 48 out of 77 or 62% of closed transactions were cash purchases.
  • The median and average prices of condos sold in Wailea came in at $1,630,000 and $2,408,720 respectively. The median price increased 20.91% and the average price increased 26.56%. These numbers reflect not only increasing values, but also a greater proportion of high priced transactions.
  • The lowest priced Wailea condo sale during the first part of the year closed for $650,000. That was for a studio unit in Wailea Ekahi.
  • The highest priced condo to sell during the first half of 2022 is located in Wailea Beach Villas. The ground floor unit in the D building closed for $12,500,000. The 3 bedroom, 3.5 bathroom unit includes 2,889 square feet of living space and a private plunge pool.
  • Wailea Ekahi and the Palms at Wailea had the most sales activity of any complex in Wailea Resort to start the year with 14 sales each.

Makena Home Sales

  • Maui Realtors reported 7 home sales in the Makena area during the first half of 2022. That is the same number as what was reported during the first half of 2021.
  • Two of the seven sales closed for over asking price. None of the homes sold for above asking. As you get to these price points, competition decreases and negotiation is more common.
  • The median sales price for the 7 Makena homes sold is $17,200,000. The average sales price came in at $18,825,564. That is a 72% increase in median sales price over last year’s $10,000,000 sale. It is a 35.94% increase over last year’s average sales price of $13,848,071.
  • This year’s low sale came in Makena came in at a $12,875,000. The oceanfront home in Makena Place includes 4 bedrooms, 4.5 bathrooms and 4,304 square feet of living space.
  • The highest priced sale in Makena and the highest sale on Maui for the year to date closed for $26,490,700. That estate includes 8 bedrooms, 8 bathrooms, 10,464 square feet of living space plus a pool house on an acre across the street from the ocean.
  • In terms of activity within subdivisions, two homes closed in Makena Place and two homes closed in One Palauea Bay.

Makena Condo Sales

  • Maui Realtors reported 9 condo sales in Makena during the first 6 months of 2022. That is down 36% from last year’s first half tally of 14 sales.
  • Two of the nine sales sold for full price. No sales closed for above asking price.
  • The median and average prices of the 9 condos sold are $4,000,000 and $4,950,645 respectively. Median increased 42.98% over last year’s median of $2,797,500. The average price increased 26.89% over last year’s average of $3,901,500.
  • The lowest priced condo transaction in Makena closed for $3,250,000 for a 2 bedroom, 2.5 bathroom 2,745 square foot unit at Na Hale O Makena.
  • The highest priced condo transaction in Makena during the first six months of the year closed for $11,256,000. That was a Molokini Residence at the Makena Golf and Beach Club with 5 bedrooms, 5.5 bathrooms and 4,430 square feet of living space.
  • Makena Surf saw the most sales activity during the first half of the year with 4 closes.

Wailea and Makena Market Outlook

Of course all of the sales referenced above reflect past market demand. The million dollar question, or twenty million dollar question in the case of some Makena residences, is what can we expect for the second half of the year? Surprising market behavior over the last two years makes any sort of prognostication a challenge and current economic uncertainty makes it that much harder. That said, it is worth at least touching on both the supply and demand side of the equation.

Wailea and Makena Inventory

On the supply side, there is still some variability by location and property type. There are currently 8 active home listings in Wailea with 4 pending. That is a pretty limited supply considering sales and current pending. It is worth noting that of that supply, a couple of sellers are reaching for some pretty big numbers for their respective neighborhoods. While record highs are normal of late, some of the prices are well above previous neighborhood highs. It is also worth noting that only 3 of 6 subdivisions have active inventory, and 5 of 8 listings are in Wailea Pualani.

There are currently 24 active condo listings in Wailea with 8 pending sales. A quick side note, the pending number does not include the 75 pending new developer sales at La’i Loa at Wailea Hills. This is up quite a bit from the 6 active listings on February 1. That said, it is still less than 2 months supply. Again, when honing in on certain condo complexes the inventory is particularly limited. There are six condo complexes with just 1 active listing and 5 condo complexes with no active inventory. It is also worth considering that 3 of the active listings are seeking prices well above all time highs in their complex. There are a number of other sellers seeking new high prices for their respective location or floor plan in their development.

There are currently 5 active home listings and 1 pending sale in Makena. That’s almost 5 months of inventory based on the first half of the year, but it is worth noting that the 7 sales during the first halves of 2021 and 2022 is pretty extraordinary activity. That makes the 5 active listings a healthy inventory for prospective buyers with the considerable means necessary to shop in this part of the island.

The Makena condo market inventory is literally zero. If you are looking for a place in one of the three condo developments or the Makena Golf and Beach Club, it is a waiting game.

The big unknown is what type of new inventory we may see through the end of the year. Inventory growth in July thus far is negligible.

What about Wailea and Makena Demand?

With Makena and Wailea predominantly second home markets, what type of demand will see from second home buyers in a shifting market? The amount of cash involved with transactions makes the market less sensitive, but not completely immune to increases in mortgage rates. Nationally, second home demand is down according to Redfin reports. What about some of the current market indicators we’ve used for the general market?

Of the eight properties listed in the area this month, two went under contract in less than 10 days or 25%. That is just a hair better than the overall Maui market. Of the current Wailea condo inventory, 29% of active listings reduced their asking price. For Wailea Homes, 28.57% of active listings reduced their price. For Makena Homes, 60% or 3 of 5 listings reduced their price. The Wailea numbers are below what we are seeing for price reductions island wide. The one caveat I might add is that historically, resort market listings are slower to adjust price. The Makena number is high, but it also is worth mentioning that pricing properties in the $10,000,000 plus range comes with its own set of challenges. These are large, very unique custom homes not as well suited to comparative valuations.

Monthly new pending home sales for all the years between 2017 and 2022 except 2020.

One last thing to mention is seasonality. Looking at the chart above, you can see that there is a general seasonality to the market in Wailea Home Sales with more properties going under contract during the first half of the year than the second. The same is true for Wailea condos. Makena is a little more random due to its small sample size. If the market follows typical behavior, we should expect less sales activity this year.

Based on all of the above, the Wailea and Makena markets should see less activity for the remainder of the year due to the combination of market trends, seasonality and limited supply. Barring a massive influx of supply and/or a significant worsening of the current economic situation, the limited supply should keep prices elevated.

You can search through the current inventory of Wailea and Makena Homes for Sale and Wailea and Makena Condos for Sale on our site.

A Little Maui Beauty to Brighten This Post

Contact The Maui Real Estate Team

Congratulations if you made it to the end of this post. It was a long one! It also must mean you are pretty interested in the Maui market. Feel free to Contact The Maui Real Estate Team with questions or for assistance buying or selling property on Maui. We would welcome the chance to be of assistance.

Pete Jalbert

Maui Real Estate Blog

Maui Market Musings Volume XIII

It’s the beginning of a new month and the end of the first half of the year. Milestones like that typically call for a look back at first half of the year stats. That said, the market in the first quarter of the year is a lot different than the market now. While we intend to look at the June sales numbers in the next musings, the focus of this edition is on statistics that are more relevant to current conditions. The three main statistics reviewed in Volume XIII include inventory, price reductions and the number of properties going under contract within ten days of coming to market.

Inventory Watch for Single Family Homes

At the end of May, we started documenting end of month inventory for different communities and price points. We did it again on the last day of June. The intent is to track inventory at a more granular level than the island wide inventory statistics released by the local Realtor’s Association.

May 31, 2022June 30, 2022
ActivePendingActivePending
<$750,000622616 (-6)
$750,000-$999,999195432 (+13)63 (+9)
$1,000,000-$1,499,999433758 (+15)34 (-3)
$1,500,000-$1,999,999302744 (+14)22 (-5)
$2,000,000-$2,999,999371434 (-3)15 (+1)
$3,000,000-$4.999,999241127 (+3)10 (-1)
$5,000,000-$9,999,99922823 (+1)8
$10,000,000-$19,999,9999213 (+4)0 (-2)
$20,000,000+314 (+1)1
Totals 193176241 (+48)169 (-7)
A comparison of active and pending inventory by price point on Maui Between May 31, 2022 and June 30, 2022.
May 31, 2022June 30, 2022
ActivePendingActivePending
Haiku151220 (+5)13 (+1)
Hana534 (-1)2 (-1)
Ka’anapali13611 (-2)7 (+1)
Kahului11248 (-3)27 (+3)
Kapalua425 (+1)3 (+1)
Kihei272545 (+18)22 (-3)
Kula241225 (+1)13 (+1)
Lahaina151520 (+5)18(+3)
Makawao111713 (+2)12 (-5)
Napili/Kahana/Hono…125123 (-2)
Pukalani51212 (+7)7 (-5)
Spreckelsville /Paia12411 (-1)2 (-2)
Wailea/Makena8513 (+5)4 (-1)
Wailuku283239 (+11)33 (+1)
Active and Pending Home Inventory on the last days of May and June

End of June Home Inventory Overview

Here are a couple of quick notes about the data above to provide some framework. The price ranges cover all of Maui. They do not include the islands of Lanai or Molokai. The list of districts above is limited to those with the most activity.

  • The overall trends on inventory are pretty clear with just under a 25% increase in active listings and a 4% drop in pending sales over the last month. A substantial spike in interest rates provided the backdrop for this shift in active and pending sales.
  • Honing in on various price points, you can see a little more variability in the market.
  • Active inventory below $750,000 remained unchanged while pending sales decreased.
  • When you bump up to the $750,000-$999,999 range, inventory increases are substantial, but it is also the price range with the largest increase in pending sales activity.
  • The $1,000,000-$2,000,000 range saw a significant increase in active listings with a drop in pending sales activity.
  • The luxury home market experienced more modest increases in inventory and the decline in pending sales is less significant.
  • The variability in numbers at a district level is a little more of a head scratcher.
  • Kihei inventory grew the most with a 66% increase in active homes for sale.
  • Neighboring communities saw different trajectories in inventory. Kahului’s inventory fell while the number of active homes in Wailuku grew almost 40%.
  • Within the luxury markets, Wailea and Makena experienced a pretty healthy bump in inventory. Kapalua has one more active home listing while active inventory in Ka’anapali is down.

Inventory Watch for Condos

May 31, 2022June 30, 2022
ActivePendingActivePending
<$250,000592 (-3)8 (-1)
$250,000-$499,999122319 (+7)25 (+2)
$500,000-$749,999185531 (+13)40 (-15)
$750,000-$999,999295444 (+15)46 (-8)
$1,000,000-$1,499,999234929 (+6)30 (-19)
$1,500,000-$1,999,999213428 (+7)34
$2,000,000-$2,999,999194020 (+1)36 (-4)
$3,000,000-$4,999,999122211 (+1)25 (+3)
$5,000,000-$9,999,9997711 (+4)3 (-1)
$10,000,000+304 (+1)0
Totals149293199 (+50)247 (-46)
A comparison of inventory by Price Point on the Island of Maui on May 31st and June 30th
May 31, 2022June 30, 2022
ActivePendingActivePending
Ka’anapali23232315 (-8)
Kahului584 (+1)3 (-5)
Kapalua71512 (+5)9 (-6)
Kihei359555 (+20)74 (-21)
Lahaina14816 (+2)5 (-3)
Maalaea355 (+2)5
Napili/Kahana/Hono…343948 (+14)34 (-5)
Wailea169123 (+7)85 (-6)
Wailuku91112 (+3)12 (+1)
Active and Pending Condo sales by Community on May 31st and June 30th

End of June Maui Condo Inventory Overview

As with the home market, the price points table includes all condos on Maui, but it does not include condos on Molokai or Lanai. The table with districts is limited to the districts with the most activity. As mentioned in the last Musings, pending sales at La’i Loa at Wailea Hills skew the data in Wailea and the $1,500,000-$5,000,000 price ranges. There are 75 pending sales in that development based on contracts penned in 2020 and the first quarter of 2021. Those pending sales won’t start to close until sometime in 2023.

  • The increase in condo inventory between May and June is more pronounced with a 33% jump in active condo listings. Pending condo sales dropped 16%.
  • Honing in on the different price points, all price ranges with the exception of condos priced below $250,000 experienced an increase in active inventory.
  • The biggest increase occurred in the $500,000 to $749,999 price range.
  • On the pending sales front, all but three price ranges had a decrease. The $250,000 to $499,999 price range saw a modest increase. The number of pending condos sales stayed the same from $1,500,000 to $1,999,999. The $10,000,000 plus condo market remained unchanged with no pending listings.
  • Looking at inventory from a district level, active inventory increased in all communities except for Ka’anapali.
  • Ka’anapali condos are the outlier when it comes to resort condo inventory. Kapalua inventory increased 71% and Wailea inventory increased 44%. It is worth noting these increases are coming from near historic lows in inventory. That 71% increase in condo inventory in Kapalua is due to just 5 more listings.
  • Other notable increases in inventory occurred in the markets that were the busiest earlier this year. Kihei active condo inventory increased 57%. Napili, Kahana and Honokowai active listings increased 41%.

Price Reductions

As of July 4th, 34.03% of all active home listings on Maui reduced their asking price one or more times. That compares to 33% on May 24th and 29.5% on June 7th. After seeing a small dip in price reductions in early June, those numbers appear to be rising again.

For condos, 24.63% of all active condo listings reduced their price one or more time. The increase in price reductions is steady. The percentage of active listings that reduced price was 18.2% and 20.9% on May 24th and June 7th respectively.

It’s important to note that the higher number of price reductions isn’t indicative of decreasing values at this point in time. In many cases, this is sellers who priced ambitiously adjusting to the realities of a shifting market.

Market Response to New Listings

Another metric that we’ve tracked in our market musings is the percentage of new listings going under contract within 10 days. We started to track this in mid February, a time period when competition for inventory remained incredibly strong. At that time, 56% of all new listings were under contract within 10 days. As posted in Musings XI, that number dipped to 35.54% for the period between May 18th and May 25th. For the period between June 14th and June 21st, the number dropped to 25.37%.

While the number above shows a pretty significant cooling of the market, context is key. Between June 14th and June 21st of 2019, only 17.28% of all listings went under contract within the first ten days of coming to market. There are still buyers out there acting quickly when well priced properties come to market.

Takeaways for Buyers and Sellers

When interest rates spiked over 6% in early June, the hyperbolic takes on the real estate market came fast and furious. The crowing of the bubble watchers became deafening. In places like Boise and Phoenix, it looks like there may be some drastic shifts in the market. That said, what’s true for Boise may not be true for Maui. Our goal is to strip out the hype so buyers and sellers can make informed decisions.

To be clear, the Maui Market continues to cool down from the frenzied market of earlier this year. While inventory is growing, the growth in inventory started later than most markets on the mainland. We are still seeing inventory levels well below normal. While pending sales are decreasing, the percentage of properties going under contract in ten days or less is higher than during the same period of 2019. As the numbers above show, market conditions are showing variability based on location and price points. Where you are buying or selling in the market will impact your experience.

Buyers shopping in most price points will appreciate the increased inventory compared to the scarcity of earlier this year. While competition is down, well priced properties may still see bidding wars. This is particularly true at the lower priced points of the market where inventory remains truly scarce.

Prospective sellers will want to look closely at conditions specific to their price point and community when pricing their property. In those areas where inventory is growing the most and demand is shrinking, you will want to be particularly mindful of not overpricing your property. Sales will likely take longer. With buyers largely moving out of the FOMO mentality, a little give and take may be necessary to get deals done.

Some Maui Beauty to Brighten This Post

Contact The Maui Real Estate Team

Questions about the market or this post? Thinking of buying or selling? Contact The Maui Real Estate Team. We look forward to being of assistance.

Pete Jalbert

Maui Real Estate Blog

Maui Real Estate Musings Volume XII

The latest edition of Maui Real Estate Musings is coming from the road. While I may be on the mainland, I still have an eye and ear on the Maui Real Estate Market. Volume XII addresses the elephant in the room from last week’s real estate news. As promised in Musings XI, there is also a review of end of May inventory numbers by district and price point. Finally, we take a quick look at the percentage of active home and condo inventory with price reductions. Without further ado, and so I can get back to hanging out with the in-laws, here is musings volume XII.

The Elephant in The Room

The elephant in the room of course is interest rates. Interest rates on the 30 year fixed mortgage spiked to over 6.2 percent last week. Stronger than expected inflation numbers for May and the resulting anticipation of sharper increases in the Federal Funds rate fueled a strong spike in mortgage rates. This is a significant difference in borrowing costs from interest rates below 3% a year ago.

Prior rate increases this year pushed some buyers out of the market. Needless to say, it is likely that this recent rate increase will further thin the pool of financed buyers. Those that do stay in the market, will be able to afford less home. It is possible that we see a brief uptick in activity in the market as buyers who locked in lower rates feel heightened urgency to purchase. Conversely, the shift in rates may cause a more immediate slow down in demand. We shall see how it plays out.

Of course, the smaller pool of buyers and less purchasing power from financed buyers will cause other impacts to the market. Lesser demand will likely lead to growing inventory. Keep in mind, we are still experiencing inventory numbers well below normal. How quickly and how much inventory grows is something of an unknown. The other thing we are likely to see is price reductions. A lot of sellers on the market initially entered the market at prices that assumed continued rapid appreciation. With less demand and less competition, many sellers will need to adjust expectations and pricing.

End of May Inventory Levels

The Realtors Association of Maui tracks end of month inventory levels island wide for homes and condos. We report on those numbers regularly. I took it a step further documenting inventory levels by district and price point on the island. The numbers are meant to serve as a baseline for future comparisons. It is a means to track changes in inventory among different market segments. That said, there is some interesting information to be gleaned from just the May numbers. They show some of the recent variability in inventory levels and market conditions based on both geography and price point.

End of May Home Inventory

ActivePending
Haiku1512
Hana53
Ka’anapali136
Kahului1124
Kapalua42
Kihei2725
Kula2412
Lahaina1515
Makawao1117
Napili/Kahana…125
Pukalani512
Sprecks/Paia124
Wailea85
Wailuku2832

End of May Home Inventory by Price Point

ActivePending
<$750,000622
$750,000-$999,9991954
$1,000,000-$1,499,9994337
$1,500,000-$1,999,9993027
$2,000,000-$3,000,0003714
$3,000,000-$4,999,9992411
$5,000,000-$9,999,999228
$10,000,000-$19,999,99992
$20,000,000+31

End of May Home Inventory Takeaways

  • Kahului has the lowest ratio of active listings to pending listings with 11 active listings compared to 24 pendings.
  • Kula and Paia have the highest ratio of active home listings to pending sales.
  • The ratio of pending sales to active sales is higher in districts with more lower priced options and less second home activity. There is stronger demand and more competition for lower priced primary residences.
  • The ratio of pending listings to active listings by price point corroborates the point above. The number of active listings is a small fraction of the pending listings below $1,000,000. There are no homes in the resort markets below $1,000,000.
  • With the exception of the $1,500,000 to $1,999,999 range, the higher you go in price point, the the ratio of active listings to pending sales increases.
  • While the resort communities have more active listings than pending sales, the inventory in these communities remains limited.
  • The same can be said for higher price points. With the exception of the highest price points, inventory is still well below normal in the $2,000,000 to $5,000,000 range.

End of May Condo Inventory by District

ActivePending
Ka’anapali2323
Kahului58
Kapalua715
Kihei3595
Lahaina148
Ma’alaea35
Napili/Kahana/Honokowai3439
Pukalani00
Wailea1691
Wailuku911

End of May Condo Inventory by Price Point

ActivePending
<$250,00059
$250,000-$499,9991223
$500,000-$749,9991855
$750,000-$999,9992954
$1,000,000-$1,499,9992349
$1,500,000-$1,999,9992134
$2,000,000-$2,999,9991940
$3,000,000-$4,999,9991222
$5,000,000-$9,999,99977
$10,000,000+30

End of May Condo Inventory Takeaways

  • First things first, there is an important thing to note in the pending condo numbers. They include 75 pending sales in La’i Loa at Wailea Hills. This development is under construction and the bulk of the contracts were signed in the second half of 2020 and the first quarter of 2021. These pending sales skew the numbers for Wailea and the price points between $1,500,000 and $4,999,999.
  • The Kihei Condo market numbers reflect its frenzied state over the last 12 months. This includes both vacation rental and non-vacation rental properties. Supply appears to be well below demand.
  • The price points between $500,000 and $1,500,000 have the highest ratio of pending sales to active listings.
  • The $5,000,000 to $9,000,000 range shows a lot less active inventory vs recent demand compared to the single family homes in this range.
  • Lahaina is notable as the only district with more active condo listings than pending listings.
  • Overall, the condo market inventory numbers reflect more scarcity and higher activity across the board than the home market.

A Few Final Thoughts on the Inventory Numbers

This data is lagging behind a few weeks at this point. I will be posting the numbers for the end of this month shortly after the first of July. I suspect we will see increases in inventory across a number of districts and price points. Another “flaw” to this analysis is that it lacks a baseline of comparison to historical numbers. Unfortunately, old Realtors Association of Maui statistics track monthly sales and not active inventory. I wish we had a “normal” number for districts and price points. I am going to need to rely on anecdotal observations as to what seems normal for active listings.

Price Reductions

I did want to look at one statistics that gives more of a current look at market conditions. Price reductions give us some sense of demand and how sellers are currently responding to shifts in demand. As of June 22nd, 32.4% of active home listings reduced their price. That is up from 29.5% on June 7th. It is still a little below May 24th when 33% of all active home listings reduced below listing price. For condos, 22.5% of the active inventory reduced their price as of June 22nd. That is up from June 7th and May 24th when 20.9% and 18.2% of the active inventory reduced prices respectively.

Some Maui Beauty To Brighten Your Day

This week’s beautiful Maui tweet comes with a bonus link to an article on South Maui Summer Activities.

Wrapping Things Up

It’s clear that market conditions are changing. A few quick final thoughts for sellers and buyers. Sellers, it is pretty clear the market is a lot different than it was 6 months or even 3 months ago. If your list prices were aspirational, price adjustments may be necessary to get in line with the market. Less competition means less leverage when it comes to negotiations. For buyers, the reverse is true and you may start to have an opportunity to negotiate. There is more opportunity for due diligence and there may be some more choice available to you. The trade off for financed buyers is more purchasing power.

With changing market conditions, quality representation remains as important as ever. Contact The Maui Real Estate Team to discuss your real estate needs. We look forward to being of assistance.

Pete Jalbert

Maui Real Estate Blog

Wailea Real Estate Market Update October 2021

Today’s blog looks towards leeward Haleakala and the beautiful beaches, stunning views, and high end amenities of the Wailea Resort. We wanted to take a look at how the Wailea market fared through the year to date. This post includes information on Wailea Home and Condo sales as of September 22, 2021. It is also worth noting that this looks exclusively at properties in the Wailea Resort itself. Our MLS groups Wailea and Makena together. I plan on doing a separate post on the Makena market some time next week.

Notable Number’s From This Year’s Wailea Home Sales

  • As of September 22nd, Maui Realtors reported 41 home sales. That is a 227% increase in activity compared to the 18 that closed during the same period last year.
  • The median price of the homes sold is $3,000,000. The average price is $3,691,505. That is an increase of 44% and 55% over last year’s median and average prices respectively.
  • It is worth noting that the change in median and average sales price is not an accurate reflection of the year to year change in values. More sales at the highest reaches of the market helped to boost both of those numbers.
  • The highest priced sale of the year to date in Wailea closed for $10,900,000. This Wailea Highlands property included a 6,042 square foot home on almost an acre of land.
  • The Wailea Highlands close was one of two sales to close for more than $10,000,000 and one of six home sales to close for more than $5,000,000 in Wailea. There were no sales over $5,000,000 during the same period of 2020.
  • The lowest priced sale closed for $1,350,000. This Wailea Pualani home offered 1,991 square feet of living space.
  • Competition for homes increased significantly. Of the 41 sales, 11 sold for over asking price and 5 sold for full price. By comparison, none of the sales over the same period of 2020 sold for above asking price.
  • More competition occurred at the lower price points of the Wailea home market. Eleven out of nineteen sales under $3,000,000 closed for asking price or above.
  • Almost 66% percent of the transactions were reported to be cash sales. Cash seemed to be preferred in the more competitive $3,000,000 and under range and with higher priced transactions. A greater number of buyers chose to use conventional financing for the $3,000,000 to $5,000,000 price range.
  • Wailea Pualani and Wailea Kai saw the most activity of all of the neighborhoods in Wailea. There were 8 closes in each subdivision.
Keawakapu Beach is located across the street from Wailea Kai
This shot shows beautiful Keawakapu Beach. The Wailea Kai subdivision is just across the street from Keawakapu. I am sure this golden stretch of sand factored into the decision making process of the eight Wailea Kai buyers this year.

Thoughts on Recent Activity and the Outlook for the Wailea Home Market

Needless to say, the numbers above point to a robust eight plus months of home sales in Wailea. While many second home markets took off in the spring and summer of 2020, Maui’s market remained relatively quiet due to quarantine requirements. We started to see an uptick in buyer activity after the governor lifted quarantine restrictions in October. Buyer activity started to increase during those last few months of 2020. It hit a whole other level in 2021. I checked the MLS data going back to 2003. Only January-September of 2005 came within 10% of this year’s total.

While this spring marked the peak of the frenzy, buyer demand remains strong. Inventory, on the other hand, is particularly limited. There are only eight active home listings for sale within the Wailea Resort. An additional seven homes are under contract. Barring any significant changes in the global economic picture or an unexpected influx of new listings, Wailea should remain a seller’s market through the rest of the year with sales volumes slowing due to the lack of inventory.

Notable Numbers From the 2021 Wailea Condo Market

  • Maui Realtors reported 232 condos sold in Wailea between January 1, 2021 and September 22nd. That is a 362.5% increase over the 64 sold during the same period of 2020.
  • The median price of the 232 condos sold is $1,398,000. The average price is $1,910,153. That is 15.3% and 12.2% higher than last year’s median and average respectively.
  • The highest priced condo sale for the year to date closed for $14,000,000. This Wailea Beach Villas condo features 3 bedrooms, 3.5 bathrooms, almost 3,000 square feet of living space and a direct beachfront location.
  • The lowest priced Wailea condo sale for the year to date closed for $647,000. This is a studio unit at Wailea Ekahi.
  • I did a double take when looking at the data for the lowest priced condo sales in Wailea. I saw two closes at Wailea Point for $375,000 and $425,000 respectively. That is a shockingly low price for one of the more premium developments in Wailea. Closer examination revealed that the two seemingly low priced condo sales were for boat garages in the development.
  • According to MLS statistics, Makali’i was the busiest condo for sales thus far this year. It is worth noting that the majority of the 47 closes were new developer sales. These new developer sales were based on pre-construction contracts penned two to three years ago.
  • While closes at Makali’i juiced this year’s total sales volume based on older contracts, it is worth noting that quite a few properties went under contract in 2021 that won’t close until at least 2023. La’i Loa at Wailea Hills is the newest condo development in Wailea. Sales began in the spring of 2020. A roll out right at the start of Covid-19 blunted momentum. That said, it picked up steam in the fall of 2020. Strong demand in the first few months of 2021 resulted in the reservation of all 75 units by this spring.
  • Maui Realtors reported the most resales at Wailea Ekahi and Grand Champions. Both developments stand at 25 sales for the year to date.
  • Of the 232 sales, MLS records show 129 were cash transactions. That is 55.6% of the total sales. That is up from 47.9% over the same period last year.
  • Competition also increased significantly in the Wailea condo market. Of all of the closed transactions, 35 closed for over asking price. Over the same period of 2020, not a single transaction closed for over asking price.
The Wailea Point Condos saw more sales activity thus far this year than any other comparable span over the last 20 plus years.
An aerial shot of the Wailea Point condos flanked by the Four Season and Fairmont Kealani. Wailea Point saw more sales activity for the year to date than any comparable period over the last 20 plus years.

Thoughts on and Outlook for the Wailea Condo Market

Like the Wailea home market, the Wailea condo market experienced strong activity through the first nine months of the year. Also like the home market, the trajectory of the market showed a similar pattern over the last 18 months. It was a slower spring and summer of 2020 as the island felt the impacts of Covid-19 and a lack of visitors. A gradual ramping up of activity followed when tourism reopened in October. The start of the new year brought a whole other level of interest in Wailea Condos. We entered the year with a fairly balanced market between supply and demand. That shifted as buyers ravenously chewed through the market inventory. As with the home market, we are seeing all time high levels of sales activity for the year to date.

With high levels of demand and a shrinking supply, we also experienced a lot of upward price pressure in the market. With variability in value between units, it is hard to quantify the exact levels of appreciation. If I were to guess, I would saw 10% or greater appreciation is quite likely with variability between some of the different developments.

As for the outlook for the rest of the year, it really comes down to inventory. Plain and simple, the active condo inventory is shockingly low. At the date of this post, there are 6 active condo listings in all of the Wailea resort. There are active listings at only four of the seventeen condo developments within Wailea. Needless to say, this will constrain sales volume unless we see a considerable uptick in active inventory. It will also lead to some upward pricing pressure.

Contact The Maui Real Estate Team

Contact The Maui Real Estate Team if you are interested in buying property in Wailea. We would be happy to keep our eyes and ears open for new inventory or unlisted properties. You can also keep tabs on the current inventory of active Wailea Condo listings and Wailea Homes for Sale on MauiRealEstate.com. I don’t think you could find a much better time to go to market if you are a Wailea property owner thinking about selling. Send us a message or give us a call to arrange a free consultation and an estimate of the current market value of your condo.

Pete Jalbert

Maui Real Estate Blog

Wailea and Kihei Vacation Rental Condo Sales Surge

The Maui Real Estate market has seen a healthy bump in condo sales during 2017. Sales volume for the first five months of the year are about 10% higher than the same period of 2016. Much of that growth can be attributed to the vacation rental condo market in Kihei and Wailea. After a couple of relatively slow years, this year has seen a resurgence of buyers interested in South Maui. I wanted to take a look at the numbers specific to Wailea and Kihei, the condos that are seen the biggest increase in demand, and provide a few thoughts on what might be driving the increase in activity.

Wailea and Kihei saw a 56% increase in vacation rental condo sales between January 1st and May 22nd, 2017 compared to the same period in 2016. There were 173 units sold this year vs 111 sold last year. That increase in activity occurred across all price ranges. Condos priced $500,000 and under saw the most activity with 78 transactions. There were 65 closes during the same period of 2015. The 20% increase in sales compared to 2016 was actually the lowest percentage increase in activity for any price range. The price range from $501,000 to $1,000,000 saw a larger increase in activity with 63 sales compared to 33 sales. That calculates to a 91% increase in sales activity. While the $1,000,001+ price range experienced the biggest percentage increase in activity compared to last year with 38 units sold compared to 13. That is a whopping 292% increase in sales activity.

Wailea Condo Sales
Which condo complexes saw the biggest gains? In Wailea, the increases were across the board. Every single condo complex in Wailea that allows vacation rentals has seen more sales in the year to date than they did over the same period of time last year. That said, there were a few condos that stood out over the others.

Wailea Elua
Wailea Elua is a low density complex with 25 two story buildings located on 24 beachfront acres. Prices in the complex range from roughly $1,000,000 for one bedroom units up to over $3,500,000 for front row, beachfront two bedrooms. The property is valued by owners for its low density, location and beautiful Elua Beach. To say that the start of 2016 was not busy for Wailea Elua would be an understatement. There were no closes by this point of the year. As of the 22ndd of this month, there have been 6 closes.

An aerial view of Wailea Elua and Elua Beach.

Wailea Ekahi
Wailea Ekahi is the biggest beachfront complex in Wailea. There are 296 units spread over 54 buildings on 35 acres. It has studio units through two bedrooms in a variety of floor plans. Prices range from the $600,000s for studios all the way up to just under $2,000,000 for two bedrooms close to the beach. Owners like the location, the green belt that goes through the middle of the property, the beachfront pool area and Keawakapu Beach. Ekahi saw decent market activity in 2016 with 5 sales in just under 5 months. There has been double that amount of activity with 10 sales reported this year as of May 22nd.

The popular beachfront pool at Wailea Ekahi.

Wailea Beach Villas
Wailea Beach Villas is home to the highest priced vacation rentable condos in Wailea. The property has 9 buildings on just over 10 acres. Wailea Beach Villas has larger 2 and 3 bedroom floor plans with some units having as much as 2,900 square feet of living space. Prices range from the low $2,000,000s to over $9,000,000. Owners like the bigger floor plans, amenities, newer construction and central location within Wailea. It is situated right behind the shops of Wailea and next to the Grand Wailea. It only had one sale during the first 5 months of 2016. There have been 4 sales to date this year.

Kihei Condo Sales

One of the pools at Wailea Beach Villas.

Kamaole Sands

When I first started in real estate, I met with a vacation rental manager to discuss popular Kihei vacation rentals. Kamaole Sands was the first condo he mentioned. Kamaole Sands has 440 units spread over 10 buildings on 15 acres. It has one, two and a handful of three bedroom floor plans. Prices range from the mid $300,000s up to the $700,000s. Condos located on the “inner circle” green space and condos closer to the ocean sell at a higher premium. Owners appreciate the large green space running through the center of the complex that features a pool, fountains and tropical landscaping. It is located across the street from Kamaole Beach Park III. It is a big complex and it typically has higher occupancy. Over the last few years, there has been an abundance of inventory and relatively few buyers. In 2016, there were just 5 units sold through the first 5 months of the year. This year, there was a clear market shift. Sales increased over 300%, with 16 closes for the year as of May 22, 2017.

An Aerial shot of Kamaole Sands shows the central green belt, pool area and Kamaole Beach Park III across the street.

Maui Banyan
If Kamaole Sands was first on the list of condos mentioned when I talked to the vacation rental manager, Maui Banyan was mentioned shortly thereafter. There are 256 units spread over 8 buildings on 8.6 acres. There are one and two bedroom floor plans. The popular two bedrooms have a lock off that allow the units to be rented as a studio and one bedroom. Prices range from the $low $400,000s up to the high $600,000s. View and high quality remodels tend to distinguish the higher priced properties. The lock off option, two nice pools, the location across from Kamaole II Beach Park and proximity to shops and restaurants are typically some of the first things that owners mention about the property. In the first five months of 2016, there were only 3 sales. As of the 22nd of May, there have been 11 sales reported for the year to date. That is an impressive 366% increase in activity.

One of the buildings at Maui Banyan

Maui Vista
Maui Vista offers one of the lower entry points into the South Kihei vacation rental condo market. The complex has 280 units spread over three buildings on 8.82 acres. Each building has its own pool and set of tennis courts. There are both one and two bedroom floor plans. Prices range from the high $200,000s for fixer units up to the mid to upper $400,000s for two bedrooms. Maui Vista offers good amenities and close proximity to shops and restaurants. It is a block from Charley Young Beach Park. Maui Vista has seen a little more activity over the last couple of years compared to places like Maui Banyan and Kamaole Sands. It had 7 sales through the first five months of 2016. That said, it was another place that experienced a healthy jump in activity. As of May 22nd, there have been 16 sales reported this year.

One of the three buildings at Maui Vista

Why the surge this year?
While the overall Maui real estate market experienced fairly strong years in 2015 and 2016, the vacation rental condo markets in Wailea and Kihei were not seeing the same strong levels of activity. Inventories were high and sales volumes were low. A significant factor in the slower sales over the last couple of years was a lack of demand from Canada. The period between 2007 and 2013 was an era of stronger Canadian Currency. With the Looney at or near par with the U.S. dollar, Canadians were flocking to South Maui. They remained pretty consistent buyers through the recession. The slip in oil prices in 2014 pushed down the Canadian dollar and a significant pool of buyers shrank considerably.

While that explains why sales have been lower the previous couple of years, I don’t think that speaks to why we are seeing the increase this year. The Canadian dollar is still well below par with the U.S. dollar. We have seen some Canadian buyers start to come back, but it isn’t enough to juice the market to the extent that we have with this year’s sales increases. I did my best to look at the geographic composition of buyers this year in some of the Kihei and Wailea complexes over the last five years. I say that I did my best in that more recent sales within the last month may not show the geographic origin of the buyer yet. With some of the older sales, the condos may have already resold preventing me from seeing where the previous owner resided full time. In Kamaole Sands, just 1 out of the 16 buyers this year is Canadian. By comparison, in 2013, 3 out of 10 were Canadian and 2 out of 4 units sold in 2012 were Canadian buyers. Maui Vista had a few more Canadian buyers this year with 3 out of the 16 sold. That is still well below the 4 out of 7 and 4 out of 10 Canadian buyers we saw at Maui Vista in 2012 and 2013 respectively. The one place where we did see a little more Canadian activity this year was among the higher priced Wailea condos. At Wailea Elua 2 out of 6 buyers were Canadian, and 1 out of 4 buyers were Canadian at both Polo Beach and Wailea Beach Villas.

If the Canadians played only a small part in the resurgence, what were the other factors at play that drove the sales increase? I can’t say definitively, but I would suggest there were a few factors at play. The strength of our feeder markets play a part. Real estate markets in the Western United States remain strong. Buyers coming from strong real estate markets may be empowered both psychologically and financially to purchase a second home on Maui. The stock market continues to achieve near record highs. Strong stock returns may enable buyers to make a discretionary second home purchase. The last factor is pure speculation on my part, but I wonder if the growing strength of the Airbnb brand might also play a role. With Airbnb doing more and more advertising, maybe just maybe that is planting the bug in some people’s ear to consider a vacation rental condo purchase. The last factor that enabled the upsurge is more tangible. We had supply to sell. Home sales volumes are down this year on island, but not due to a lack of demand. There just isn’t enough inventory for buyers particularly in the price ranges below $1,000,000. There was plenty of inventory in the condo market after the previous two to three slow years. In Kihei, there are also some pretty good values. Places like Kamaole Sands are still selling for prices a fair amount below the last market peak.

While the market has absorbed some of the inventory during the first five months of the year, there is still a good selection of condos available to sustain healthy activity in the South Maui condo market. I would suspect that we will continue to see stronger sales this year unless something in the overall economic picture cuts back demand. Contact the Maui Real Estate Team if you are considering a vacation rental condo purchase on Maui. We would welcome the chance to talk to you about some of the options on the market that might fit your needs. You can also search MauiRealEstate.com for the full inventory of Kihei Condos for Sale and Wailea Condos for Sale.

Pete Jalbert

Maui Real Estate Blog

Maui Luxury Condo Market Update

Earlier this month, we took a look at Maui’s Luxury Home Market. Today, I wanted to turn my sights towards the high end condominium market. This post will include totals on all of the condos sold for the year to date (as of September 20), notable numbers from this year’s sales, and market conditions specific to the three resort areas of Wailea/Makena, Ka’anapali and Kapalua.

When we have discussed luxury condos on our blog, we have used the $1,500,000 and above price point as the threshold for pricing. When we first started to look at the luxury condo market, that was something of a starting point for some of the really high end condos. To be clear, there are some very nice condos below this price point. That said, we want to be consistent with our methodology. So all properties discussed in this particular blog sold for $1,500,000 or more.

Maui Luxury Condo Sales Volume and Median Price
There were 69 condos sold thus far this year as of September 23, 2015. The median price for those sales was $2,250,000. Between January 1, 2014 and September 23, 2014, there were 63 sales at a median price of $2,575,000. That is roughly a 10% increase in volume and a 13% decrease in median price.

Notable Luxury Condo Sales Numbers for the Year to Date.
Here are some of the most noteworthy numbers from the luxury condo sales this year.

  • The highest priced condo to sell thus far this year closed for $8,500,000. This is a three bedroom, three and a half bath, beachfront unit with 2,919 square feet of living space at Wailea Beach Villas.
  • Including the sale at Wailea Beach Villas, there were a total of 12 condos sold over $4,000,000.
  • Honua Kai saw the most sales activity of any condo complex on the island. There were a total of 20 sales at Honua Kai over $1,500,000 including 11 new developer sales.
  • The Wailea and Makena Market saw the most sales activity over $1,500,000 with a total of 28 sales. Kaanapali saw the second most activity and Kapalua was third.
  • In addition to the sales activity in the major resort markets, there was one sale in Lahaina, one in Kihei, one in Spreckelsville and two on Lanai.
  • There were no bank owned condos or short sale transactions among this year’s sales

Wailea and Makena Condos
Wailea and Makena have had a good year for sales to date. The 28 sales reported exceeded last year’s total of 20. That is a 40% increase in activity. Much of that increase in activity occurred in Makena. While there was only one sale in Makena during the same period last year, this year there were 6 sales. Five of the six Makena sales were at Makena Surf. The remaining sale was at Na Hale O Makena. This was a particularly busy year for Makena Surf with the five sales reported thus far more than any year since 2004.

The Wailea sales over $1,500,000 were spread out among a variety of complexes. There were 7 sales at Hoolei, 1 at Andaz, 2 at Kai Malu, 1 at Papali, 1 at Wailea Ekahi, 3 at Wailea Elua, 3 at Wailea Beach Villas and 3 at Wailea Point. Hoolei continues to lead the way in high end sales in Wailea. The size of the condos combined with their price point and the potential to access amenities at the Grand Wailea continues to be an attractive option to buyers. While Wailea Beach Villas did not have the same sales volume, it was noteworthy for the fact that it had the top two highest priced condo sales on the island thus far this year.

This chart compares looks at the sales in Wailea for the year to date compared with the current active inventory on the MLS.

It will be interesting to see what happens in the Wailea and Makena market for the rest of the year and into 2016. There is still a good selection of variety to choose from on the MLS. There is plenty of active inventory on the MLS with 40 condos on the market. There are unlisted properties available at Andaz and the new Keala O Wailea development. There is also a chance that we might see pre-construction sales at Makali’i at Wailea before the end of the year. You can see all of the current Wailea and Makena Condos listed on the MLS on MauiRealEstate.com. Contact The Maui Real Estate Team if you have questions on any of the unlisted properties.

Kaanapali Condos
The Ka’anapali Condo market has also had a fairly strong year with 26 sales reported to date. That is down 7% from the 28 units sold during the same period last year. The Ka’anapali market has been buoyed over the last several years by activity at the Honua Kai Resort. Honua Kai has been a big draw as the first fee simple whole ownership new development along this stretch of coast for over 20 years. Of the 26 condos sold in Ka’anapali for $1,500,000 or more, 20 were at Honua Kai. Ka’anapali Ali’i has had 5 sales thus far this year. There was also one sale at the Masters.

This chart compares the year to date sales in the Kaanapali area with the current inventory of Kaanapali listings on the MLS.

The Ka’anapali luxury condo market is starting to see shrinking inventory with only 20 active listings over $1,500,000. A big part of that stems from Honua Kai. The developer is getting close to selling out their remaining units. There are only 3 new developer listings left on the MLS. I believe there are still a handful of additional new developer units in addition to those posted on the MLS. There are only three units active at Ka’anapali Ali’i with the remaining listings located at Ka’anapali Shores and the Whaler. It will be interesting to see if the dwindling inventory at Honua Kai will have an impact on places like the Whaler and Ka’anapali Shores. Buyers have shown a preference for the newer Honua Kai Condos leading to depressed sales at the other places. Will some of the older condos nearby start to see an uptick in activity? You can see the full inventory of Kaanapali Condos listed on the MLS via MauiRealEstate.com.

Kapalua Condos
The Kapalua Market has seen pretty similar activity levels to what we saw last year. There have been 10 sales reported in the year to date this year. There were 9 sales reported over the same period last year. The focal point for luxury condo sales in Kapalua has been the Montage Residences on Kapalua Bay. Montage came on the market last June. This property was formerly the Ritz Carlton Residences. The Ritz Residences went into foreclosure and the property was purchased by Lantern Capital. Lantern appointed Montage to manage and revamp the property. Montage has seen steady sales since it has come on the market despite pricing that starts in the mid three million dollar range. There have been 8 sales reported at Montage thus far this year.

The other notable sale was at Ritz Carlton Residences. To be clear, this is a different animal from the Ritz Residences Kapalua Bay that was previously foreclosed upon. These condos are part of the Ritz Carlton Hotel. The Ritz condos had been on the market closer to the downturn and weren’t getting as much traction. They are back under the market with a new sales team. It will be interesting to see how these condos are received by the market going forward. From what I have heard, they are getting a pretty good response.

While the two new developments have been relatively well received, some of the older complexes have seen slower activity. High end Kapalua condos like Coconut Grove and the Ironwoods are traditionally condos that see limited inventory and limited sales volume. There was one sale in the Ironwoods this year. Kapalua Bay Villas is a condo that seems to be getting poor market feedback by luxury buyers. There have been 4 sales over $1,500,000 at Bay Villas since 2009. There are currently 7 active listings in the complex with none pending. It appears as if sellers in this complex may need to adjust pricing if they are going to generate interest from buyers.

This chart compares the year to date sales vs the active MLS inventory for condos in the Kapalua Resort.

For the rest of the year, I would anticipate that we will continue to see activity at Montage and the Ritz. Buyers in Kapalua have a good selection of inventory to choose from. You can see the full inventory of Kapalua Condos on the MLS on MauiRealEstate.com. Contact The Maui Real Estate Team directly if you would like us to assist you with buyer representation at either the Montage or the Ritz. There is more inventory available at both of those condos than what is showing on the MLS.

Other Condo Sales Around the Island
In addition to the activity at the resort communities, there have been a handful of sales from other communities around the island. There was one sale in Spreckelsville at Sugar Cove, one in Lahaina at Puamana and one at the Royal Mauian in Kihei. There were also two sales over on Lanai including one at the Terraces at Manele and the other was at the Palms at Manele. The two Lanai purchases were both Larry Ellison buys as he continues to expand his holdings on the island. We tend to see limited activity on higher priced condos outside the main resort areas not so much due to lack of demand as it is a lack of inventory. There are only a handful of condos outside the resorts that can sustain prices of $1,500,000 or greater and they tend not to have a ton of inventory.

Overall Thoughts on the Maui Luxury Condo Market
Buyers still have a great collection of condos to choose from around the island. There are both new development opportunities and condo resales in more established condominiums. While the depth of the inventory may provide options, sellers in this price range tend to have more staying power. The challenge is finding potentially motivated sellers who might want or need to redeploy their money elsewhere.

I would expect that the luxury condo market will continue to be perform at or near the levels we have seen for the year to date. While interest rate increases have been postponed, this isn’t a part of the market that is as interest rate sensitive. The bulk of the buyers are using cash or private banking. The biggest potential impacts to the market come from the greater global economy. Poor performance in the stock market is a potential threat. There seems to be something of a correlation between the DOW and high end sales on the island. We have not seen any significant influxes of buyers from China like some cities in the Western U.S. and Canada. Contact The Maui Real Estate Team if you are interested in buying or selling a luxury condo on Maui. We would welcome the chance to sit down with you for a free consultation and to discuss your interests and needs.

Pete Jalbert