I wanted to take a quick look at the Wailea condo market now that we are a month into our “peak buyer season”. I spent some time looking at the current inventory and I was left with four observations and one question about the current market dynamics.

Wailea and Makena Condo Inventory

At the time of this post, there are 27 active condo listings in Wailea. While that’s a far cry from the half dozen active listings we saw briefly in early 2022, it’s still well below normal. There are four condo complexes in Wailea with no active listings. There are six condo developments with just 1 active listing at this time. None of the Makena condo developments have any active or pending listings.

The Highest Price Points have the Most Condos for Sale

The two condo developments with the most listings are Wailea Point and Wailea Beach Villas with 6 and 4 listings respectively. In addition to the condos at those two respective developments, there is also a top row Ho’olei and a rare Andaz listing. If you are shopping at higher price points, you have a lot more options to choose from.

Prices Remain High

The second half of 2022 saw prices decrease in a number of markets on the mainland. The situation on Maui is more nuanced. Small segments of the single family home market saw values decrease. Other segments held value or even increased in value. Wailea is one of those areas where values held or increased in the second half of 2022.

This is reflected by the current Wailea inventory. Seventeen of the twenty-seven active listings are seeking new record high sales prices for their development or at least their particular floor plan. That isn’t too much of a surprise considering the fact the values are at all time highs. That said, not all of the condos seeking record high prices have the location, view or the finishing to merit those lofty numbers.

Buyer Activity Is Low

Thus far, busy season is off to a slow start in Wailea. There are 5 condo resales under contract currently. Only 3 of the 5 went under contract since Christmas. This level of activity is well below the same period of time during the past two boom years. It is quite a bit less than recent pre-Covid years. In fact, this is the lowest number of Wailea condos to go under contract to start busy season since the winter of 2013/14.

Wailea is not the only spot on the island seeing a quieter busy season. While pending sales are increasing, they are still well below normal for this time of year. Looking at Kapalua, there are three pending sales with only one new pending since the start of busy season. Ka’anapali is the busiest of the resorts with only five pending.

While Wailea’s slow start is part of a broader trend, it may also be a reflection of some of the ambitious asking prices. Which brings us to my last question…

Who Blinks First?

With low transaction volumes, it seems like something is going to have to give for us to see an increase in sales activity in Wailea. Will sellers reduce their prices? Will buyers bite the bullet? Or do we see a little bit of both?

On the sell side, the dynamics are interesting. We are seeing some price reductions, but in many instances the new asking prices are still above record highs. That tells us that the sellers truly missed the mark on their initial pricing. The sellers are also getting some mixed signals. The low transaction volume is a suggests prices should be reduced. On the other hand, inventory remains low, and there are still the occasional sales with eye popping prices. The question is whether sellers are trying to find the market or that elusive solitary buyer willing to pay a premium.

For buyers, the record high prices may be increasingly hard to swallow. That is especially the case for second home buyers coming from markets where decreases in value are common place. On the other hand, if you are seeking out a condo in one of the developments with little or no inventory you may be inclined to jump when something comes to market that checks all of the boxes. Further decreases in mortgage rates may also bring some buyers off the fence, but the impact of lower rates is not going to be as significant in the Wailea market. Keep in mind, 62% of all transactions were cash in Wailea and Makena last year.

Contact The Maui Real Estate Team

We will continue to monitor the Wailea Condo market as we progress further into buyer season. Stay tuned for more updates. You can see the active inventory of Wailea Condos for sale on MauiRealEstate.com. Contact The Maui Real Estate Team with questions or for assistance buying or selling Wailea Condos. We look forward to being of service.

It’s that time again. This is the twenty-first edition of the Maui Market Musings. Our weekly, biweekly, monthly update on the Maui Real Estate market. The latest edition looks at active and pending inventory, price reductions and demand for new listings. There are plenty of words down below, so I will spare you from any more up here…

End of November Maui Home Inventory

	9/30/22		10/31/22		11/30/22
	Active	Pending	Active	Pending	Active	Pending
<$750,000	7	14	9	15	5 (-4)	14 (-1)
$750,000-$999,999	21	46	29	29	31 (+2)	25 (-4)
$1,000,000-$1,499,999	45	33	64	28	61 (-3)	28
$1,500,000-$1,999,999	44	17	41	13	28 (-13)	17 (+4)
$2,000,000-$2,999,999	33	12	35	10	34 (-1)	11 (+1)
$3,000,000-$4,999,999	35	11	32	7	32	7
$5,000,000-$9,999,999	27	6	26	5	23 (-3)	9 (+4)
$10,000,000-$19,999,999	11	0	9	0	14 (+5)	0
$20,000,000+	2	1	3	1	5 (+2)	1
Total	225	140	248	108	233 (-15)	112(+4)

	9/30/22		10/31/22		11/30/22
	Active	Pending	Active	Pending	Active	Pending
Haiku	24	7	28	9	29 (+1)	10 (+1)
Hana	9	1	10	0	10	0
Ka’anapali	10	3	7	2	9 (+2)	2
Kahului	7	26	16	16	16	13 (-3)
Kapalua	4	0	6	0	5 (+1)	3 (+3)
Kihei	35	16	40	11	31 (-9)	15 (+4)
Kula	22	11	20	11	22 (+2)	12 (+1)
Lahaina	21	10	22	13	15 (-7)	13
Makawao	13	11	13	9	11 (-2)	7 (-2)
Napili/Kahana/Hono…	9	7	11	6	9 (-2)	3 (-3)
Puklanai	6	7	8	3	10 (+2)	3
Sprecks/Paia	10	4	8	2	7 (-1)	3 (+1)
Wailea	10	8	11	4	16 (+5)	4
Wailuku	36	26	40	21	32 (-8)	19 (-2)

Notable Numbers from the End of November Maui Home Inventory

The information above is provided with the usual framework. The home inventory data by price point includes all of the island of Maui, but excludes the islands of Molokai and Lanai. The district information is limited to the districts and communities with the most activity.

• After an increase in inventory in October, Maui home inventories decreased again in November. Active listings dropped 6.1%.
• Looking at the the active inventory by price point shows a mix of trajectories. While most price ranges decreased, the continued increase between $750,000 and $999,999 is notable. This is a part of the market with more financed buyers. Those buyers are feeling the affordability impact of higher rates. The $10,000,000 plus price range is not known for financed buyers. That said, it also saw an increase.
• Pending sales actually increased between the end of October and the end of November. While the increase was a modest 3.7%, the increase in activity comes as somewhat of a surprise considering both rates and the more significant decrease between late September and late October.
• Broken down by price point, the picture is more mixed. Again, fewer properties went under contract in that $750,000-$999,999 price range. Pending sales increased in the $1,500,000 to $3,000,000 range. The biggest percentage increase in pending sales was in the $5,000,000 to $9,999,999 price range.
• At a community level, inventory trends were all over the place. Kihei, Lahaina and Wailuku all experienced notable decreases in inventory. Most other markets experienced modest changes with increases or decreases of a couple of homes. The Wailea active inventory increased the most month to month.
• There was also a lot of variability in the end of month change in pending sales by community. Pending sales increased in five communities, remained unchanged in five districts, and decreased in four. Kapalua and Kihei saw the biggest increase in pendings. Kahului and the Napili, Kahana, Honokowai area decreased the most.

End of November Maui Condo Inventory

	9/30/22		10/31/22		11/30/22
	Active	Pending	Active	Pending	Active	Pending
<$250,000	1	3	2	4	1 (-1)	4
$250,000-$499,999	11	16	19	12	19	14 (+2)
$500,000-$749,999	28	40	32	35	43 (+11)	33 (-2)
$750,000-$999,999	33	33	27	27	28 (+1)	29 (+2)
$1,000,000-$1,499,999	19	36	21	30	31 (+10)	24 (-6)
$1,500,000-$1,999,000	18	34	14	33	21 (+7)	28 (-5)
$2,000,000-$2,999,999	14	43	15	40	18 (+3)	39 (-1)
$3,000,000-$5,000,000	10	17	10	17	11 (+1)	17
$5,000,000-$9,999,999	7	0	11	1	12 (+1)	2 (+1)
$10,000,000+	4	0	3	1	3	0
Total	145	222	154	200	187 (+33)	190 (-10)

	9/30/22		10/31/22		11/30/22
	Active	Pending	Active	Pending	Active	Pending
Ka’anapali	17	14	18	9	25 (+7)	4 (-5)
Kahului	3	4	5	5	5	5
Kapalua	10	4	12	4	14 (+2)	2 (-2)
Kihei	48	61	43	60	53 (+10)	51 (-9)
Lahania	5	7	8	4	14 (+6)	8 (+4)
Ma’alaea	4	4	3	6	4 (+1)	8 (+2)
Napili/Kahana/Hono…	29	30	33	17	39 (+6)	19 (+2)
Wailea	19	86	19	85	23 (+4)	85
Wailuku	8	12	11	10	8 (-3)	8 (-2)

Notable Numbers from the End of November Maui Condo Inventory

Again, the tables above come with the usual framework for our end of month inventory. The table by price point includes all condos on Maui, but it does not include condos on the islands of Molokai or Lanai. The table with districts is limited to the communities with the most activity.

Pending sales at La’i Loa at Wailea Hills skew the data in Wailea and the $1,500,000-$5,000,000 price ranges. There are 75 pending sales in that development based on contracts penned in 2020 and the first quarter of 2021. Pending sales in La’i Loa won’t start to close until sometime in 2023. Paradise Ridge Estates in Kihei also skews the data albeit to a lesser extent. There are 18 pending sales with that development based on contracts penned between 2018 and the first quarter of 2022. Overall, 49.73% of the pending condo inventory is in La’i Loa or Paradise Ridge Estates.

• End of month condo inventory increased for the second straight month. Active inventory grew by 21.42%.
• Seven out of ten price ranges increased inventory between the end of October and the end of November. Two price ranges remained constant and only condos priced below $250,000 decreased in active inventory.
• The largest increases in active inventory occurred between $500,000-$749,999 and $1,000,000 to $1,999,999.
• Pending sales dipped 5% between the end of October and the end of November. Pendings in four price points decreased, increased in three and remained unchanged in three.
• The biggest decrease in pending sales occurred between $1,000,000 and $1,999,999.
• Active inventory increased in all but two communities. Only Wailuku saw a decrease while Kahului inventory remained unchanged. Kihei increased the most by the number of units and Lahaina increased the most by percentage.
• Pending sales increased the most in Lahaina. Kihei pending sales decreased the most.

Pending Sales vs. New Listings

With the shift in active and pending sales, it is worth taking a look at what’s driving inventory levels. How did November stack up against other years for new listings and new pending sales?

	11/2022	11/2021	11/2019	11/2018	11/2017
Homes	79	114	125	147	140
Condos	109	187	208	153	193

Looking at new inventory in November, you can see that we are well below last year. For homes, there were just over 30% fewer listings than last November. More notably, last month’s new inventory was anywhere between 39% and 46% less than what came to market in November of 2017-2019. The decrease in new condo inventory entering the market in November is even more pronounced. There were roughly 42% less condo listings last month compared to November 2021. New inventory came in anywhere between 53% and 56% lower than Novembers 2017 and 2019. The one outlier being November of 2018. Even that year had 40% more new listings than this year.

	11/2022	11/2021	11/2019	11/2018	11/2017
Homes	63	95	90	80	83
Condos	69	180	147	110	125

While inventory remains low, the number of properties going under contract decreased significantly from last November and the Pre-Covid Novembers Prior. New pending home sales this November are almost 34% lower than last November. They are down between 21 and 30% compared to the Novembers between 2017 and 2019. Again, the difference in the condo market is a little more dramatic. New Pending sales from November 22 are almost 62% less than November of 21. This November’s new pending sales are between 37% and 53% lower than November 2017-2019.

Looking at the numbers above, inventory clearly remains low. Pending sales are also down quite a bit. While some of the decrease in pending sales may be attributed to the limited inventory, decreased demand is the bigger driver for the decrease in activity. The weight of decreased affordability impacts a number of buyers.

How Quickly Are Things Going Under Contract?

Another metric we use to track the market is the speed at which properties are going under contract. Specifically, what percentage of new listings are going under contract in 10 days or less. We started tracking that number in mid February during the peak of last winter’s frenzy. At the time, 56% of all new listings went under contract in ten days or less. Prior to this post, the last time I checked this metric was for the period between October 11th and October 18th. At that time, 25.58% of properties listed during that span went under contract in ten days or less. Between November 21st and November 28th, 15.9% of all properties went into escrow within that ten day span.

Of the single family homes that came to market between November 21st and November 28th, 13.64% went under contract in ten days or less. For context, 36% of homes listed between November 21st and November 28th, 2021 went under contract in ten days or less. Of the homes listed between November 21 and November 28th, 2018, only 4.17% of the properties went under contract in ten days or less.

Of the condos listed between November 21st and November 28th, 18.18% sold in 10 days or less. Last year, 43.24% of condos listed in that period sold for 10 days or less. Pre-covid, 29.26% of condos listed between November 21st and November 28th sold in ten days or less.

Overall, this is the most tepid response new listings received since we started tracking this data point. While the slower market activity could be a function of the Thanksgiving Holiday, the 2021 and 2019 numbers both remained busy despite Thanksgiving.

Price Reductions

A lot of sellers don’t seem to be fretting the smaller numbers of buyers on the market. That is evident in the recent numbers on price reductions in the active inventory. On November 30th, 37.02% of all active home listings reduced their price one or more times. That is down from 39.92% on October 31st and 42.41% on September 29th. While the percentage of homes with price reductions started to tick down nationally in the last couple of weeks of November, the percentage of price reductions started declining in early September on Maui.

On November 30th, 23.53% of all active condo listings reduced their price at least once since being listed. That number was 29.41% on October 31st. It was 25% on September 29th. It’s interesting to see that price reductions are down considering the decreased condo sales activity over the last month. Low inventory and the start of peak winter home buying season at the end of the month is emboldening sellers.

Quick Thoughts on the State of the market.

Weird. My one word summary for the current Maui Real Estate market. Some parts of the market continue to push to all time record highs, other parts are stalled, while other segments of the market are seeing modest price declines. Supply (or lack thereof) and affordability (particularly when you take into account borrowing costs) push and pull the market in different trajectories.

We’ve already looked at the fluctuations in active listings by price point and community in this post. It might be worth zooming out and looking at those same numbers island wide since late Spring.

While active listings fluctuated over the last five months, the end of November supply for homes and condos is lower than it was at the end of June. Demand, reflected in pending listings, fell steadily downward over that time. While the data in this post shows that demand is far less than a normal market, we still have constrained supply. Demand fell enough to cool market conditions, but supply remains limited enough to prevent across the board decreases in value. Variability in market conditions on island ultimately comes down to the balance between supply and demand at the community level and at different price points. The price points that are decreasing in value appear to be those that have more financed buyers. The places that continue to see record highs have extremely limited inventory and a high percentage of cash buyers.

A Little Maui Beauty To Brighten Your Day

A beautiful sunrise taken from the beach in Wailea.

Witnessed a stunning sunrise from Wailea, Maui.✨ pic.twitter.com/4yRU7pndYl

— HAWAI'I Magazine (@HAWAIIMagazine) December 8, 2022

Contact The Maui Real Estate Team

Navigating the weird market conditions demands quality representation. Market strategies for buyers and sellers vary by price and location. Contact The Maui Real Estate Team to discuss market conditions specific to your budget and areas of interest. Our savvy and experienced agents look forward to being of assistance.

Sweet sixteen! This is the 16th edition of our almost weekly look at the Maui Real Estate market. This latest edition is highlighted by our monthly inventory check. We break down end of the month home and condo inventory by both community and price point. We also check in on the percentage of the active inventory with price reductions, and the percentage of new listings going under contract in ten days or less. Collectively, the three metrics give us a better sense of current market conditions. Last but not least, this edition highlights a couple of national perspectives on the real estate market.

Inventory Watch for Single Family Homes

	5/31/22		6/30/22		7/31/22
	Active	Pending	Active	Pending	Active	Pending
<$750,000	6	22	6	16	11 (+5)	14 (-2)
$750,000-$999,999	19	54	32	63	25 (-7)	62 (-1)
$1,000,000-$1,499,999	43	37	58	34	65 (+7)	25 (-9)
$1,500,000-$1,999,999	30	27	44	22	41 (-3)	19 (-3)
$2,000,000-$2,999,999	37	14	34	15	31 (-3)	19 (+4)
$3,000,000-$4.999,999	24	11	27	10	25 (-2)	9 (-1)
$5,000,000-$9,999,999	22	8	23	8	24 (+1)	7 (-1)
$10,000,000-$19,999,999	9	2	13	0	12 (-1)	0
$20,000,000+	3	1	4	1	5 (+1)	1
Totals	193	176	241	169	239 (-2)	156 (-13)

	5/31/22		6/30/22		7/31/22
	Active	Pending	Active	Pending	Active	Pending
Haiku	15	12	20	13	22 (+2)	11 (-2)
Hana	5	3	4	2	4	1 (-1)
Ka’anapali	13	6	11	7	10 (-1)	7
Kahului	11	24	8	27	13 (+5)	21 (-6)
Kapalua	4	2	5	3	5	1 (-2)
Kihei	27	25	45	22	48 (+3)	14 (-8)
Kula	24	12	25	13	19 (-6)	16 (+3)
Lahaina	15	15	20	18	18 (-2)	14 (-4)
Makawao	11	17	13	12	14 (+1)	9 (-3)
Napili/Kahana/Hono…	12	5	12	3	10 (-2)	6 (+3)
Pukalani	5	12	12	7	7 (-5)	6 (-1)
Spreckelsville/Paia	12	4	11	2	10 (-1)	2
Wailea/Makena	8	5	13	4	15 (+2)	5 (+1)
Wailuku	28	32	39	33	39	35 (+2)

End of July Home Inventory Review

Here are some notes about the data above to provide some framework. The price range chart includes all of the island of Maui, but not the islands of Lanai or Molokai. The list of districts above is limited to those with the most activity.

• After seeing an increase in inventory in June, the inventory of active home listings actually decreased in July by approximately 1%. We just aren’t seeing the substantive increase in home inventory that many mainland markets experienced this spring and early summer.
• The decrease in pending sales continues. Pending sales are 8% below the end of June and 12% below the end of May.
• Looking at the different price points, I think the two most notable price ranges are homes priced below $750,000 and listings between $1,000,000 and $1,499,999.
• The below $750,000 range turned my head at first glance. The “entry point” to the Maui market’s been one of the most competitive parts of the market for some time. When I looked at the actual inventory, the increased inventory in this range consists of properties that need a lot of work. Fix and flip buyers who might pursue opportunities like this seem to be less active.
• The $1,000,000 to $1,499,999 price range is the one segment of the market that saw increases in inventory in both June and July. Inventory at the end of July is 51% higher than it was at the end of May. This price range also had the biggest drop in pending sales over July. This is a price range that is likely feeling the effects of affordability challenges. It is out of reach for most Maui residents particularly with higher borrowing costs.
• The $2,000,000-$2,999,999 price range is the one market segment that saw an increase in pending sales.
• Looking at the different communities around the island, Kihei is noteworthy for both an increase in inventory and a decrease in sales. Inventory is up 77% from the end of May and pending sales are down 37%. Billy and I were discussing why Kihei may be seeing the biggest increase in inventory. It’s hard to say definitively. That said, we both noticed a fair amount of aspirational pricing among the active inventory.
• The other thing to note about the community chart is some of the variability evident. Some places that saw increased inventory last month saw decreases this month and vice versa. With these small sample sizes, I surmise we may continue to see month to month shifts in a number of communities.

Inventory Watch for Condos

	5/31/22		6/30/22		7/31/22
	Active	Pending	Active	Pending	Active	Pending
<$250,000	5	9	2	8	1 (-1)	8
$250,000-$499,999	12	23	19	25	11 (-8)	23 (-2)
$500,000-$749,999	18	55	31	40	43 (+8)	39 (-1)
$750,000-$999,999	29	54	44	46	44	43 (-3)
$1,000,000-$1,499,999	23	49	29	30	30 (+1)	31 (+1)
$1,500,000-$1,999,999	21	34	28	34	30 (+2)	33 (-1)
$2,000,000-$2,999,999	19	40	20	36	20	36
$3,000,000-$4,999,999	12	22	11	25	12 (+1)	18 (-7)
$5,000,000-$9,999,999	7	7	11	3	10 (-1)	3
$10,000,000+	3	0	4	0	4	0
Totals	149	293	199	247	205 (+6)	234 (-13)

	5/31/22		6/30/22		7/31/22
	Active	Pending	Active	Pending	Active	Pending
Ka’anapali	23	23	23	15	24 (+1)	13 (-2)
Kahului	5	8	4	3	2 (-2)	8 (+5)
Kapalua	7	15	12	9	10 (-2)	10 (+1)
Kihei	35	95	55	74	67 (+12)	60 (-14)
Lahaina	14	8	16	5	16	8 (+3)
Ma’alaea	3	5	5	5	5	6 (+1)
Napili/Kahana/Hono…	34	39	48	34	40 (-8)	34
Wailea/Makena	16	91	23	85	25 (+2)	82 (-3)
Wailuku	9	11	12	12	14 (+2)	13 (+1)

End of July Condo Inventory Review

The price points table includes all condos on Maui, but it does not include condos on Molokai or Lanai. The table with districts is limited to the districts with the most activity. As mentioned in previous musings that look at inventory, pending sales at La’i Loa at Wailea Hills skew the data in Wailea and the $1,500,000-$5,000,000 price ranges. There are 75 pending sales in that development based on contracts penned in 2020 and the first quarter of 2021. Pending sales in La’i Loa won’t start to close until sometime in 2023.

• After a big 33% jump in inventory between the end of May and June, the inventory of active listings increased a modest 3% by the last day of July.
• Pending sales also continued to drop with a 5.3% decrease in pending sales on July 31st compared to June 30th. That compares to the 16% drop between the end of May and the end of June.
• When you hone in on the different price points, only 4 out of 10 of the price ranges actually experienced increases in inventory. Two of the four only increased by a single condo.
• The lion’s share of the increase in inventory occurred in the $500,000 to $749,999 price range. Looking at the listings in that price range, the majority of those units are non-vacation rental condos geared toward island residents. This segment of the market showed surprising resiliency as rates increased. It seems to be cooling with inventory and days on market both increasing.
• Pending sales decreased across 5 of 10 price points. The $3,000,000 to $4,999,999 price range experienced the largest dip in activity with 7 fewer pending sales.
• Looking at the inventory changes by community, Kihei stands out with the biggest increase in active listings and the biggest decrease in pending listings. Again, I am not sure I can pin point a single reason. As with Kihei homes, I surmise sellers with aspirational pricing play a part. There are also quite a few non-vacation rental Kihei Condos in that $500,000-$750,000 range.
• The Napili, Kahana and Honokowai area took a different trajectory from Kihei with 8 fewer listings on the market.
• Looking at the resorts, Ka’anapali and Wailea both saw modest increases in inventory while Kapalua inventory decreased modestly.

Price Reductions

While inventory remains limited, we are seeing an increasing number of price reductions. As of August 15th, a total of 39.67% of active home listings reduced price one or more times. That compares to 34.03% as of July 4th. In the condo market, 29.26% of condo listings reduced asking price as of August 15th. On July 4th, 24.63% of all condo listings reduced list price.

It’s worth taking a minute to delve into exactly what an increase in price reductions might mean. To be honest, it really varies on a case by case basis. It’s pretty clear that a number of sellers in this market priced with first quarter market conditions in mind. During that time, prices increased upwards rapidly. Sellers could get away with being ambitious. Fast forward 5 months and the rate of appreciation is slowing significantly. If someone wants or needs to sell sooner, they are going to have to price closer to recent comparable sales. More sellers hoping that frothy market conditions continued into the 2nd and 3rd quarter are adjusting their expectations.

It’s also worth noting that pricing on Maui can be challenging. There is enough heterogeneity in the market that even sellers trying to price near comparable sales can miss the mark. If sellers and their agents struggle to value a property due to its unique characteristics, they may need to receive market feedback and adjust accordingly.

At this point, the price reductions that occurring appear to be sellers either the ambitious adjusting expectations or those struggling to come up with a value responding to the market. I haven’t seen any price reduction data that shows sellers on Maui adjusting prices below recent comparable sales. If we do start to see any shifts in value, it is likely going to occur first in the pockets of the market where inventory is higher.

Demand for New Listings

In February, we started tracking what percentage of properties went under contract in ten days or less. Back then, 56% of all listings went under contract within 10 days. That percentage slowly decreased throughout the spring with a more pronounced shift after interest rates spiked above 5%. For the period between July 25th and August 1st, the number dipped down to 22.45% of all active listings. For comparison, 50.94% of all new listings went under contract within 10 days between July 25th and August 1st of 2021. During the same period of 2019, 28% of new listings went under contract within 10 days of coming to market.

There is some discrepancy between homes and condos for this metric. For the 25th through the 1st, 26.92% of new condo listings and 17.36% of homes went under contract within 10 days of hitting the market. Again for comparison’s sake, between 7/25/21 and 8/5/21, 48% homes and 57% of condos went under contract within 10 days or less of being listed. For the period between 7/25/19 and 8/1/19, 25% of homes and 30.23% of condos went under contract within 10 days or less of being listed.

The numbers above would suggest that market conditions are definitely a lot cooler than earlier this year or this time last year. It would also seem to suggest that the market is cooler than pre-covid conditions in 2019. That said, it is worth noting that 2019 was a pretty strong year for real estate on island.

A Few National Real Estate Perspectives Worth Sharing

It’s been a while since we posted some national perspectives on the real estate market. I thought it might be worth sharing some thoughts I recently came across on social media.

This is not a one-size fits all housing cool-down.

Just look at Phoenix and Tampa.

Both were super hot markets during the boom. Now, Phoenix is slowing much faster. pic.twitter.com/uYTWMH3DjT

— Lance Lambert (@NewsLambert) August 12, 2022

I am not sure that the tweet above is a new perspective to all of our readers, but I thought it was one worth reiterating. While there’s been a demand slow down across the board in the national market, local market conditions are strongly impacted by available inventory. Some former hot spots for real estate appreciation are seeing stronger market shifts and signs of price decreases as inventory ballooned over the last few months. Other places where inventory growth remains limited aren’t experiencing downward pressure on pricing. Maui more closely resembles the latter than the former.

If you have a little time, I also included this video from the folks at Altos Research. It discusses some of the recent changes in their market analysis and forecasts as the rate of inventory growth is slowing around the country.

Watch this video on YouTube.

They suggest that the chances of broader price reductions are lowering due to the more limited inventory growth. It will be interesting to compare their current projections to the actual conditions in the fall market.

Some Maui Beauty to Brighten Your Post

Saturday beach days on Maui's south shores.☀️ pic.twitter.com/GMjQ9sgA2s

— HAWAI'I Magazine (@HAWAIIMagazine) August 13, 2022

Contact The Maui Real Estate Team

If you have questions or comments on this post, Contact The Maui Real Estate Team. Thinking of buying or selling property on Maui? Call us or send us an e-mail, we would welcome the chance to sit down with you to discuss your real estate needs.

This week’s edition of the musings dives into recent numbers from the Maui Luxury Home and Luxury Condo market. There is also an update on the end of the State of Hawaii’s Safe Travels Program and Mask Mandates, a look at the national real estate market and a little bit of Maui beauty to brighten your day.

Maui Luxury Market Update

As we approach the end of the first quarter of the year, it is worth taking a moment to check into see how the luxury property market is fairing on Maui. For the sake of this article, luxury is defined as homes priced for $2,000,000 and above and condos priced $1,500,000 and above. The numbers below are based on sales numbers between January 1st and March 21st. Here are the numbers followed by a few thoughts on the luxury home and condo market.

Maui Luxury Home Market 2022 Sales Numbers

• Thus far, 47 homes sold over $2,000,000 as of March 21st. That is down 13% from the 54 sold during the same period last year.
• Six homes sold for more than $5,000,000 this year. That is down from 13 during the same period of 2021.
• When you look at sales over $10,000,000, activity is up just a little bit. Realtors reported 4 sales over $10,000,000 compared to 3 last year.
• A number of the stronger luxury home markets in early 2021 saw activity decrease in early 2022 as shown by the chart below. West Maui saw some of the more pronounced decreases with bigger drops in Lahaina and Ka’anapali.

• A number of communities that did not see sales in 2021 experienced activity in 2022. Notably, there were 5 sales in Haiku and 3 in Makawao this year.
• Days on Market decreased substantially on homes sold over $2,000,000. This year, the average sale is closing in 127 days. That is 29% less time on market than last year’s 179 days.
• Competition in this market place is up significantly. Of the homes that sold for $2,000,000 or above, 57.44% closed for asking price or higher. That is well above the 16.67% that sold for asking price or above during the same period of 2021.
• It is notable that the three highest priced home sales all closed for their full asking price.

Maui Luxury Condo Market 2022 Sales Numbers

• Maui Realtors reported 71 condos sold for $1,500,000 or higher as of March 21st. That is up almost 34% from the 53 sold during the same period of 2021.
• Of the 71 sales, 7 sold for $5,000,000 or more as of Match 21st. That is up slightly from the 6 that sold during the same period last year.
• The Ka’anapali Condo market stands out for the significant increase in sales activity compared to other Maui markets. The Napili and Kahana market also experienced a notable increase.

• Other markets saw less drastic annual changes with Lahaina and Kapalua repeating last year’s numbers and Wailea and Makena down slightly.
• A big reason for Ka’anapali’s increased activity is due to activity at Honua Kai. Honua Kai saw 12 sales after just 4 last year.
• Days on market decreased quite a bit for high end condos. The average of 67 days on market is 54% lower than the average of 145 days on market in early 2021. It is worth noting, that long term new developer sales are excluded from calculations for both years. These are contracts signed pre-construction, but do not close until 2-3 years later when construction is completed.
• Competition for luxury condos also increased. Of the 71 condos sold, 63.4% sold for asking price or above. That compares to 39.6% last year.

Some Takeaway from the Luxury Home and Condo Numbers

Volume may be down for homes, but that is more a function of reduced supply vs. decreased demand. The lower days on market and number of homes selling for at or above listing price support the notion of sustained demand and a more competitive market.

The impact of decreased inventory is also evident at the community level where places like Wailea and Makena are seeing lower sales volume due to decreased inventory. The Ka’anapali market and to an extent the Lahaina market are seeing lower sales for a few reasons. 1. Inventory is down at the lower price points of the luxury home market. 2. Some of the homes going under contract are “spec” houses with completion dates later in the year. Finally, some of the sellers are pushing the envelope on pricing. I mentioned the Lanikeha subdivision in Ka’anapali specifically in volume I of the market musings. The bulk of the inventory in that neighborhood is priced well above previous neighborhood high sales. To be fair, a couple of the higher priced homes have gone under contract since my post. That said, there are still quite a few homes available.

The increase in activity in new markets is also due to a combination of factors. We are seeing some homes selling above $2,000,000 due in part to appreciation. With price increases year over year ranging between 10 and 20 percent, some of last year’s below $2,000,000 sales are going for more money. Another factor is just plain old variability. Places like Haiku and Makawao both saw an increase in $2,000,000 sales over the last 4 years. It’s just that early 2021 was quieter in those communities. We are also seeing some luxury buyers expand their search outside the resort markets due to the lack of inventory.

The increase in activity in the condo market is largely due to better inventory selection compared to the luxury single family home market. That said, not all markets have an abundance of inventory. The Wailea and Makena area have lower inventory and it is reflected in the lower sales volume. We can see the impact of decreased inventory in some area of the luxury condo market in both the decreased days on market and the higher percentage of condos selling at or above asking price.

End of Safe Travels and the Mask Mandate

March 25th was the last day of the Hawaii Safe Travels program. Travelers coming to Hawaii will no longer need proof of vaccination or a negative covid test prior to arrival. It is also the last day of the indoor mask mandate in Hawaii. There are still requirements to wear masks on planes, buses, public schools and the airport.

Interest Rate Increases Don’t Seem to be Slowing the Market Around the Country

While keeping tabs on the local market, it’s also worth keeping an eye on national trends. This is particularly the case in the current market as interest rates hit heights we haven’t seen over the last few years. The folks over at Altos Research have good access to pending sales data around the country. That gives you a little better sense of current market conditions than what you would get by just looking at sales data. Here is their video overview of the most recent data and it’s worth a watch.

 Watch this video on YouTube.

If you don’t have the time to watch, here are a few quick notes. Inventory ticked up again although pending sales and pricing both appear to be strong. They are watching closely to see if the recent rates are impacting buyers. While they aren’t seeing any data to really suggest a change in market conditions, they spoke to a few things they are looking for that might indicate a potential slow down from the current frenzy. They mentioned listening for anecdotal signs of less active bidding wars. Altos suggested keeping an eye out for an increase on cancelled transactions and an increase in cancelled new developer contracts. Again, they haven’t seen that in the national data yet.

For what it’s worth, they aren’t expecting any seismic shifts in the market other than moderation of the current activity. The caveat being that a more significant shift could occur if interest rates were to settle over 5%.

Interestingly, there were a few more cancelled contracts on the Maui MLS last week. I am hesitant to read too much into the cancellations at this point. While it might be related to the rise in rates, it could also be a coincidence. It is something to watch a little more closely going forward.

A Little Bit of Maui Beauty

It was another beautiful morning on Maui today. I thought it was worth sharing this photo from Baldwin Beach with the West Maui Mountains in all of their glory.

A sunny way to start the week. 🏖️ pic.twitter.com/HJFdlTgngM

— HAWAI'I Magazine (@HAWAIIMagazine) March 28, 2022

Contact The Maui Real Estate Team

Have questions on anything in this post? Need assistance buying or selling property on island? Just want to talk about a specific part of the market? Contact The Maui Real Estate Team. We look forward to being of assistance.

Today’s blog looks towards leeward Haleakala and the beautiful beaches, stunning views, and high end amenities of the Wailea Resort. We wanted to take a look at how the Wailea market fared through the year to date. This post includes information on Wailea Home and Condo sales as of September 22, 2021. It is also worth noting that this looks exclusively at properties in the Wailea Resort itself. Our MLS groups Wailea and Makena together. I plan on doing a separate post on the Makena market some time next week.

Notable Number’s From This Year’s Wailea Home Sales

• As of September 22nd, Maui Realtors reported 41 home sales. That is a 227% increase in activity compared to the 18 that closed during the same period last year.
• The median price of the homes sold is $3,000,000. The average price is $3,691,505. That is an increase of 44% and 55% over last year’s median and average prices respectively.
• It is worth noting that the change in median and average sales price is not an accurate reflection of the year to year change in values. More sales at the highest reaches of the market helped to boost both of those numbers.
• The highest priced sale of the year to date in Wailea closed for $10,900,000. This Wailea Highlands property included a 6,042 square foot home on almost an acre of land.
• The Wailea Highlands close was one of two sales to close for more than $10,000,000 and one of six home sales to close for more than $5,000,000 in Wailea. There were no sales over $5,000,000 during the same period of 2020.
• The lowest priced sale closed for $1,350,000. This Wailea Pualani home offered 1,991 square feet of living space.
• Competition for homes increased significantly. Of the 41 sales, 11 sold for over asking price and 5 sold for full price. By comparison, none of the sales over the same period of 2020 sold for above asking price.
• More competition occurred at the lower price points of the Wailea home market. Eleven out of nineteen sales under $3,000,000 closed for asking price or above.
• Almost 66% percent of the transactions were reported to be cash sales. Cash seemed to be preferred in the more competitive $3,000,000 and under range and with higher priced transactions. A greater number of buyers chose to use conventional financing for the $3,000,000 to $5,000,000 price range.
• Wailea Pualani and Wailea Kai saw the most activity of all of the neighborhoods in Wailea. There were 8 closes in each subdivision.

Thoughts on Recent Activity and the Outlook for the Wailea Home Market

Needless to say, the numbers above point to a robust eight plus months of home sales in Wailea. While many second home markets took off in the spring and summer of 2020, Maui’s market remained relatively quiet due to quarantine requirements. We started to see an uptick in buyer activity after the governor lifted quarantine restrictions in October. Buyer activity started to increase during those last few months of 2020. It hit a whole other level in 2021. I checked the MLS data going back to 2003. Only January-September of 2005 came within 10% of this year’s total.

While this spring marked the peak of the frenzy, buyer demand remains strong. Inventory, on the other hand, is particularly limited. There are only eight active home listings for sale within the Wailea Resort. An additional seven homes are under contract. Barring any significant changes in the global economic picture or an unexpected influx of new listings, Wailea should remain a seller’s market through the rest of the year with sales volumes slowing due to the lack of inventory.

Notable Numbers From the 2021 Wailea Condo Market

• Maui Realtors reported 232 condos sold in Wailea between January 1, 2021 and September 22nd. That is a 362.5% increase over the 64 sold during the same period of 2020.
• The median price of the 232 condos sold is $1,398,000. The average price is $1,910,153. That is 15.3% and 12.2% higher than last year’s median and average respectively.
• The highest priced condo sale for the year to date closed for $14,000,000. This Wailea Beach Villas condo features 3 bedrooms, 3.5 bathrooms, almost 3,000 square feet of living space and a direct beachfront location.
• The lowest priced Wailea condo sale for the year to date closed for $647,000. This is a studio unit at Wailea Ekahi.
• I did a double take when looking at the data for the lowest priced condo sales in Wailea. I saw two closes at Wailea Point for $375,000 and $425,000 respectively. That is a shockingly low price for one of the more premium developments in Wailea. Closer examination revealed that the two seemingly low priced condo sales were for boat garages in the development.
• According to MLS statistics, Makali’i was the busiest condo for sales thus far this year. It is worth noting that the majority of the 47 closes were new developer sales. These new developer sales were based on pre-construction contracts penned two to three years ago.
• While closes at Makali’i juiced this year’s total sales volume based on older contracts, it is worth noting that quite a few properties went under contract in 2021 that won’t close until at least 2023. La’i Loa at Wailea Hills is the newest condo development in Wailea. Sales began in the spring of 2020. A roll out right at the start of Covid-19 blunted momentum. That said, it picked up steam in the fall of 2020. Strong demand in the first few months of 2021 resulted in the reservation of all 75 units by this spring.
• Maui Realtors reported the most resales at Wailea Ekahi and Grand Champions. Both developments stand at 25 sales for the year to date.
• Of the 232 sales, MLS records show 129 were cash transactions. That is 55.6% of the total sales. That is up from 47.9% over the same period last year.
• Competition also increased significantly in the Wailea condo market. Of all of the closed transactions, 35 closed for over asking price. Over the same period of 2020, not a single transaction closed for over asking price.

Thoughts on and Outlook for the Wailea Condo Market

Like the Wailea home market, the Wailea condo market experienced strong activity through the first nine months of the year. Also like the home market, the trajectory of the market showed a similar pattern over the last 18 months. It was a slower spring and summer of 2020 as the island felt the impacts of Covid-19 and a lack of visitors. A gradual ramping up of activity followed when tourism reopened in October. The start of the new year brought a whole other level of interest in Wailea Condos. We entered the year with a fairly balanced market between supply and demand. That shifted as buyers ravenously chewed through the market inventory. As with the home market, we are seeing all time high levels of sales activity for the year to date.

With high levels of demand and a shrinking supply, we also experienced a lot of upward price pressure in the market. With variability in value between units, it is hard to quantify the exact levels of appreciation. If I were to guess, I would saw 10% or greater appreciation is quite likely with variability between some of the different developments.

As for the outlook for the rest of the year, it really comes down to inventory. Plain and simple, the active condo inventory is shockingly low. At the date of this post, there are 6 active condo listings in all of the Wailea resort. There are active listings at only four of the seventeen condo developments within Wailea. Needless to say, this will constrain sales volume unless we see a considerable uptick in active inventory. It will also lead to some upward pricing pressure.

Contact The Maui Real Estate Team

Contact The Maui Real Estate Team if you are interested in buying property in Wailea. We would be happy to keep our eyes and ears open for new inventory or unlisted properties. You can also keep tabs on the current inventory of active Wailea Condo listings and Wailea Homes for Sale on MauiRealEstate.com. I don’t think you could find a much better time to go to market if you are a Wailea property owner thinking about selling. Send us a message or give us a call to arrange a free consultation and an estimate of the current market value of your condo.

It’s the weekend. Or at least I think it is. With stay at home rules in place, many buyers are turning to video and 3D tours as a safe way to tour property. We already posted video and 3D tours for the Maui Real Estate Team’s listings. If you need a little distraction and you’ve binged all that Netflix has to offer, I thought we might take you on a tour of some of the island’s more impressive oceanfront listings. Whether you are an oceanfront home buyer stuck on the mainland waiting for the all clear to fly out, or you just want a little Maui eye candy, we hope you enjoy the tour.

9 Bay Drive, Kapalua

This beautiful property of just under 10 acres is currently the most expensive active listing on Maui. The eight bedroom, eight and half bath home has 6,645 square feet of interior living space and a stunning pool area. Situated on a bluff overlooking the Pailolo Channel between Maui and Molokai, the views of the ocean and neighbor islands are stunning.

Hawaii Life Real Estate Brokers listed this home for $37,500,000. Sold in 2020 and relisted in 2021. Contact The Maui Real Estate Team for additional details.

4508 Makena Road

This new home is located along one of our favorite beaches on the island. Palauea or White Rock is a beautiful sandy beach with good snorkeling at either end. The four bedroom, five and half bathroom home has 5,065 square feet of living space. Never lived in before, the builders completed construction in 2018.

Sold in 2021.

11485 Honoapiilani Highway

I always loved this Olowalu Oceanfront home for its classic Kama’aina style. While built in 2001, it features a lot of the best design elements of 1930s Hawaii Architetcure. The main house is four bedrooms, five and a half baths and includes over 6,065 square feet of living space. There is a 75 foot long pool, a separate one bedroom ohana and a third structure with a gym steam room and suite above.

Listed by Hawaii Life Real Estate Brokers, the asking price is $9,395,000. Sold in 2021!

7381 Makena Road

This Makena property isn’t direct oceanfront, but it is pretty darn close. Makena Road is what separates this home from a small rocky beach. Built by renowned local builder John Cahill, this 3 bedroom, 3.5 bath home includes 3,919 square feet of living space. There is a separate two bedroom, two bath cottage.

Hawaii Life Real Estate Brokers listed the home for $12,990,000. Sold in 2021!

Wailea Point 102

There are some pretty stunning oceanfront condo options. Wailea Point 102 is arguably one of the best. It is a double unit overlooking Wailea Beach, Ma’alaea Bay, Kaho’olawe, Molokini and Lanai. The three bedroom, three bath unit includes 3,805 square feet of living space. The video for the property shows a lot of the scenery surrounding Wailea Point. It is easy to see why. This is one of the premier locations on the island with the Four Seasons and the Grand Wailea located to the North and the Fairmont Kealani located just to the South.

Watch this video on YouTube.

Island Sotheby’s Realty listed the property for $17,995,000. Sold in 2021!

Makena Surf G 301/302

This is another double unit just down the coastline from Wailea in Makena. Makena Surf offers beautiful vistas and a great setting on Po’olenalena Beach. The combination of two units means plenty of space for friends and family with five bedrooms and five bathrooms.

Watch this video on YouTube.

Romvari Realty listed this beautiful condo for $6,999,999. Sold in 2020!

More Oceanfront Options

If you need to binge on more Maui Oceanfront Property, you can check out the full inventory of Maui Oceanfront Homes and Maui Oceanfront Condos. Contact The Maui Real Estate Team for assistance buying or selling oceanfront homes on Maui.