I wanted to take a quick look at the Wailea condo market now that we are a month into our “peak buyer season”. I spent some time looking at the current inventory and I was left with four observations and one question about the current market dynamics.
Wailea and Makena Condo Inventory
At the time of this post, there are 27 active condo listings in Wailea. While that’s a far cry from the half dozen active listings we saw briefly in early 2022, it’s still well below normal. There are four condo complexes in Wailea with no active listings. There are six condo developments with just 1 active listing at this time. None of the Makena condo developments have any active or pending listings.
The Highest Price Points have the Most Condos for Sale
The two condo developments with the most listings are Wailea Point and Wailea Beach Villas with 6 and 4 listings respectively. In addition to the condos at those two respective developments, there is also a top row Ho’olei and a rare Andaz listing. If you are shopping at higher price points, you have a lot more options to choose from.
Prices Remain High
The second half of 2022 saw prices decrease in a number of markets on the mainland. The situation on Maui is more nuanced. Small segments of the single family home market saw values decrease. Other segments held value or even increased in value. Wailea is one of those areas where values held or increased in the second half of 2022.
This is reflected by the current Wailea inventory. Seventeen of the twenty-seven active listings are seeking new record high sales prices for their development or at least their particular floor plan. That isn’t too much of a surprise considering the fact the values are at all time highs. That said, not all of the condos seeking record high prices have the location, view or the finishing to merit those lofty numbers.
Buyer Activity Is Low
Thus far, busy season is off to a slow start in Wailea. There are 5 condo resales under contract currently. Only 3 of the 5 went under contract since Christmas. This level of activity is well below the same period of time during the past two boom years. It is quite a bit less than recent pre-Covid years. In fact, this is the lowest number of Wailea condos to go under contract to start busy season since the winter of 2013/14.
Wailea is not the only spot on the island seeing a quieter busy season. While pending sales are increasing, they are still well below normal for this time of year. Looking at Kapalua, there are three pending sales with only one new pending since the start of busy season. Ka’anapali is the busiest of the resorts with only five pending.
While Wailea’s slow start is part of a broader trend, it may also be a reflection of some of the ambitious asking prices. Which brings us to my last question…
Who Blinks First?
With low transaction volumes, it seems like something is going to have to give for us to see an increase in sales activity in Wailea. Will sellers reduce their prices? Will buyers bite the bullet? Or do we see a little bit of both?
On the sell side, the dynamics are interesting. We are seeing some price reductions, but in many instances the new asking prices are still above record highs. That tells us that the sellers truly missed the mark on their initial pricing. The sellers are also getting some mixed signals. The low transaction volume is a suggests prices should be reduced. On the other hand, inventory remains low, and there are still the occasional sales with eye popping prices. The question is whether sellers are trying to find the market or that elusive solitary buyer willing to pay a premium.
For buyers, the record high prices may be increasingly hard to swallow. That is especially the case for second home buyers coming from markets where decreases in value are common place. On the other hand, if you are seeking out a condo in one of the developments with little or no inventory you may be inclined to jump when something comes to market that checks all of the boxes. Further decreases in mortgage rates may also bring some buyers off the fence, but the impact of lower rates is not going to be as significant in the Wailea market. Keep in mind, 62% of all transactions were cash in Wailea and Makena last year.
Contact The Maui Real Estate Team
We will continue to monitor the Wailea Condo market as we progress further into buyer season. Stay tuned for more updates. You can see the active inventory of Wailea Condos for sale on MauiRealEstate.com. Contact The Maui Real Estate Team with questions or for assistance buying or selling Wailea Condos. We look forward to being of service.