Maui Real Estate Blog

Weekly Maui Real Estate Update June 6, 2020

It has been another week that feels more like a month. Or a year. That also means its time to check in again on the Maui Real Estate market. By a good margin, this was the busiest seven day period for pending sales since February 26th-March 3rd. I keep a close enough eye on the market on a day to day basis that I can’t say I am surprised by this week’s numbers. That said, they don’t really align with the general disorder of the world right now. Read further to find out more details about this week’s numbers.

Weekly Pending Real Estate Sales

Pending Sales Maui County June 2
This chart shows weekly pending real estate sales in Maui County during the Covid-19 pandemic. The weeks run from Wednesday through the following Tuesday. I used this range as the start of stay at home orders on Maui started on March 25th, 2020.

Maui Realtors reported 46 new pending sales between May 27th and June 2nd. That is a 43% increase over last week. That is 16% below the same seven day period of 2019.

After a couple of weeks of relatively flat pending sales, this is a pretty healthy uptick in activity. This surge comes in the midst of a period of historic national upheaval. It’s a lot easier to report the numbers than to explain the numbers this week. If you are looking for other factors at play, some of Maui’s stay at home restrictions were eased on June 1. If that had an impact, it would be more of a psychological one as a good number of the seven day period’s pending sales came before the first of the month.

Going into this week, I remained somewhat surprised by the resiliency of our market. We have close to no off island visitors and our unemployment rate is somewhere between 30 and 40%. Under those conditions, you would expect our activity to be lower. Low and behold, during one of the biggest weeks of social unrest in recent U.S. History buyer activity increased to the highest level since Covid-19 came into the picture.

If there is one other takeaway besides the market’s relative resilience, it would be it’s overall unpredictability. Our market showed a nice bounce coming off the bottom. After a period of steadily increasing activity, it dipped and stalled for a couple of weeks. Now, activity is up again. I would anticipate that we will continue to see fluctuations in the market.

Details Behind This Week’s Pending Sales

  • The 46 pending sales included 28 pending home sales, 15 pending condo sales and 3 pending land sales.
  • The one clear trend in our Covid-19 impacted market is the shift towards home buying. Condo sales outpaced home sales the first three months of the year. Now for every week but one since the start of the pandemic, home pendings outpaced condos. I don’t believe it is a shift in preference. I think it is more due to a contraction in the pool of available condo buyers, particularly off island buyers.
  • This week was the strongest week for pending home sales since February 26th-March 3rd. This comes after three straight weeks in which pending home sales decreased. Just as I was wondering if there may be a trend developing, this week blew that up.
  • This week’s pending condo sales broke down to 9 pendings in condos that prohibit vacation rentals and 6 pendings in condos that allow vacation rentals.
  • This is contrary to a general trend towards vacation rental purchases since the start of Covid-19.
  • The three land pending sales is within the range of 0-4 weekly pending sales that Realtors reported over the last couple of months.
  • One of the new pending land sales was particularly notable. A 1.7 acre beachfront lot in Kapalua listed for $9,900,000 went under contract.

This Week’s Sales Activity

Weekly Real Estate Sales in Maui County during the Covid-19 Pandemic
Weekly Real Estate Sales activity in Maui County during the Covid-19 pandemic up until June 2, 2020.

Maui Realtors reported 35 closed transactions between May 27th and June 2nd. This is a 218% increase over the week prior. That said, it is still 48% below the same seven day period last year. The sales numbers are starting to pick up after being in the doldrums over the last couple of weeks. The increased sales now are reflecting the increase in pending sales that occurred in mid to late April.

Tracking New Inventory

Weekly new real estate inventory in Maui County during the Covid-19 Pandemic.
This chart shows weekly new real estate inventory in Maui County during the Covid-19 pandemic.

Over, the last couple of weeks I added new inventory into our weekly analysis. Today, I took the time to graph weekly inventory between the week of February 26-May 3rd and the seven day period from May 27th-June 2nd .

While not as drastic, there are some similarities to the trends shown in the chart for pending sales. New listings dropped in early and mid-April with a rise in new listings towards the end of the month and mid May. There was a similar dip in activity in the second half of May.

As with pending sales, there was a pretty big uptick in new listings this week. The 77 new listings is a 63% increase over the week prior and a 35% over the same seven day period of 2019.

Maui went into Covid-19 with a shortage of inventory and strong demand. We saw a decrease in supply and a decrease in demand in April. At this point, our inventory remains relatively limited but growing. Demand is below pre-pandemic levels. The current balance is keeping prices stable. It is difficult to guess how things will play out moving forward. We see how demand has fluctuated. We are also seeing some fluctuation in new inventory. Overall, this balance between supply and demand will dictate pricing moving forward.

Contact The Maui Real Estate Team

In these uncertain times, it pays to work with experienced agents. We strive to keep our clients well informed on market conditions and inventory so they can make informed decisions. We take pride in being your strong fiduciary. Send us a message if you are thinking of buying or selling Maui property. One of our agents would welcome the chance to sit down with you to discuss your real estate needs.

Pete Jalbert

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