Weekly Maui Real Estate Update May 16


Sales Down, but Pending Sales Trending Up

It’s that time of the week when I check in on the Maui Real Estate market during the age of Covid-19. We continue to see some promising signs as pending sales activity increases. On the other end of the spectrum, this week’s closed sales numbers are the lowest yet since the pandemic began. Low pending sales in late March in early April left their mark are impacting current closings.

Weekly Pending Real Estate Sales by Property Type in Maui County since the emergence of Covid-19 as a global threat.
A chart of pending weekly pending real estate sales by property type between late February and Mid May. The weeks run Wednesday through Tuesday. I used this start and end time based on the beginning of stay at home orders which began on March 25th.

Maui Realtors reported 39 new pending sales over a seven day period between March 6th and 12th. That is an 8% increase over the previous week and the fourth straight weekly increase in pending sales. It is only 5% below the same week of 2019. While that number looks pretty remarkable all things considered, context is key. The 41 sales from the same week last year appear to be a comparatively slow week for activity in the spring of 2019. The weeks before and after included 62 pending sales and 60 pending sales respectively. While we are seeing positive signs with the increase of activity, buyer activity has yet to rebound like some mainland markets.

Inside This Week’s Pending Sales

  • The 39 pending sales from the last week include 21 pending home sales, 14 pending condo sales and 4 new lot pendings.
  • This marks seven of eight weeks that pending home sales outpaced pending condo sales.
  • The composition of condo sales shifted this week. This is the first time that non-vacation rental condo pendings outpaced vacation rental pendings.
  • The four land pending sales is the highest weekly total since early March.

This Week’s Closed Transactions

Weekly real estate sales in Maui County by property type from late February through Mid May. The sales show the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on market activity
This chart shows weekly closed transactions by property type from late February through mid May. The impact of Covid-19 particularly as you get closer to present with most pre-pandemic sales already closed.

Maui Realtors reported 27 closed transactions over a seven day period between May 6th and 12th. That is down 25% from last week and 58% from the same seven day period of last year. Many pre-covid contracts closed already and the bulk of the sales stem from transactions during the pandemic. Closed sales are a lagging indicator of market demand.A lot of these transactions that are closing were from the weeks of really slow activity in late March and Early April.

The closed transactions include 12 home sales, 14 condo sales and 1 land sale. The one other thing that I thought was notable from the closings was the comparatively high number of luxury market sales. Fifteen percent of the transactions closed for more than $2,000,000.

A Quick look at The Big Picture

Maui and Hawaii in general effectively flattened the curve. We reported the last new case on island on Saturday. Only one patient remains hospitalized on Maui. These positive signs will allow the opening of additional business on the island. Hair and Nail salons are set to open May 22nd. Dine in restaurants open June 3rd. That said, social distancing will be in place for the foreseeable future. The governor is discouraging tourism through at least June. Determining a safe and effective plan for reopening the island’s for tourism remains a significant challenge.

It is likely that the lack of tourism will weigh on our real estate market, but the extent it will impact us remains a big unknown. At this time, inventory remains very low and prices appear to be stable.

Contact The Maui Real Estate Team if you are considering buying or selling property on Maui. We would welcome the chance to talk, Zoom or Facetime to discuss your real estate needs.

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